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DOE OSTI2025

Designing robust energy policy packages under deep uncertainty: A multi-metric decision support framework

The complexity of transitioning to sustainable energy systems requires policy frameworks capable of balancing multiple objectives while addressing deep uncertainty. However, existing approaches often lack systematic methods to identify combinations of policy levers that remain effective across a wide range of uncertain futures. This paper presents a novel decision support framework that guides the selection of robust policy packages based on their performance across multiple objectives under uncertainty. Our method leverages a large ensemble of scenarios and applies scenario discovery techniques to identify influential policy levers. Here, we introduce new indicators to assess the robustness of policies by evaluating their ability to mitigate adverse outcomes across metrics. These indicators support an iterative process to build a robust policy package. Finally, we map the technological and energy pathways associated with the robust policy package by leveraging an energy system optimization model. We illustrate the application of this framework to the Spanish energy system, providing insights into how specific combinations of policy levers shape decarbonization pathways under uncertainty.

Decision-support method↗

DOE OSTI2020

Comparison of Optimal Energy Management Strategies Using Dynamic Programming, Model Predictive Control, and Constant Velocity Prediction

Due to the recent advancements in autonomous vehicle technology, future vehicle velocity predictions are becoming more robust which allows fuel economy (FE) improvements in hybrid electric vehicles through optimal energy management strategies (EMS). A real- world highway drive cycle (DC) and a controls-oriented 2017 Toyota Prius Prime model are used to study potential FE improvements. We proposed three important metrics for comparison: (1) perfect full drive cycle prediction using dynamic programming, (2) 10-second prediction horizon model predictive control (MPC), and (3) 10-second constant velocity prediction. These different velocity predictions are put into an optimal EMS derivation algorithm to derive optimal engine torque and engine speed. The results show that the constant velocity prediction algorithm outperformed the baseline control strategy but underperformed the MPC strategy with an average 1.58% and 2.45% of FE improvement with highway and city-highway DC. Also, using a 10-second prediction window MPC strategy provided FE improvement results close to the full drive cycle prediction case. MPC has the potential to achieve 60%-65% and 70% - 80% of global FE improvement over highway and city-highway DC respectively.

Patel, Amol Arvind↗

DOE OSTI2020

Comparison of Optimal Energy Management Strategies Using Dynamic Programming, Model Predictive Control, and Constant Velocity Prediction

Due to the recent advancements in autonomous vehicle technology, future vehicle velocity predictions are becoming more robust which allows fuel economy (FE) improvements in hybrid electric vehicles through optimal energy management strategies (EMS). A realworld highway drive cycle (DC) and a controls-oriented 2017 Toyota Prius Prime model are used to study potential FE improvements. We proposed three important metrics for comparison: (1) perfect full drive cycle prediction using dynamic programming, (2) 10-second prediction horizon model predictive control (MPC), and (3) 10-second constant velocity prediction. These different velocity predictions are put into an optimal EMS derivation algorithm to derive optimal engine torque and engine speed. The results show that the constant velocity prediction algorithm outperformed the baseline control strategy but underperformed the MPC strategy with an average 1.58% and 2.45% of FE improvement with highway and city-highway DC. Also, using a 10-second prediction window MPC strategy provided FE improvement results close to the full drive cycle prediction case. MPC has the potential to achieve 60%-65% and 70% - 80% of global FE improvement over highway and city-highway DC respectively.

Patel, Amol Arvind↗

DOE OSTI2022

GOOML - Real World Applications of Machine Learning in Geothermal Operations

GOOML (Geothermal Operational Optimization with Machine Learning) is a machine-learning based framework that enables geothermal power plant operators to explore optimization opportunities for their assets in an efficient and robust digital environment. Backed by real-world data sources, thermodynamic constraints and steamfield intelligence, the GOOML environment provides new tools to explore how to best operate steamfields as well as test new scenarios and configurations prior to implementation in the field. To prove the effectiveness of GOOML, we have undertaken optimization experiments using reinforcement learning (RL) to generate operational suggestions using a balance of mass-take targets, sustainability considerations and net generation. Our experiments use the GOOML construct to explore different field parameters and perform multiple reinforcement learning experiments. Like a comprehensive laboratory workbench, we can change out components of a steamfield to perform testing under a variety of conditions (restrict mass, increase pressure, reroute steam, etc.). This flexibility allows us to explore conditions that would require significant infrastructure changes in a real-world setting at a fraction of the cost and time in a digital environment. The results highlight the benefits of using digital twins and advanced data analytics for the geothermal industry.

forecasting↗

NASA NTRS2007

Anisotropic Solution Adaptive Unstructured Grid Generation Using AFLR

An existing volume grid generation procedure, AFLR3, was successfully modified to generate anisotropic tetrahedral elements using a directional metric transformation defined at source nodes. The procedure can be coupled with a solver and an error estimator as part of an overall anisotropic solution adaptation methodology. It is suitable for use with an error estimator based on an adjoint, optimization, sensitivity derivative, or related approach. This offers many advantages, including more efficient point placement along with robust and efficient error estimation. It also serves as a framework for true grid optimization wherein error estimation and computational resources can be used as cost functions to determine the optimal point distribution. Within AFLR3 the metric transformation is implemented using a set of transformation vectors and associated aspect ratios. The modified overall procedure is presented along with details of the anisotropic transformation implementation. Multiple two-and three-dimensional examples are also presented that demonstrate the capability of the modified AFLR procedure to generate anisotropic elements using a set of source nodes with anisotropic transformation metrics. The example cases presented use moderate levels of anisotropy and result in usable element quality. Future testing with various flow solvers and methods for obtaining transformation metric information is needed to determine practical limits and evaluate the efficacy of the overall approach.

Marcum, David L.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Global fire modelling and control attributions based on the ensemble machine learning and satellite observations

Contemporary fire dynamics is one of the most complex and least understood land surface phenomena. Global fire controls related to climate, vegetation, and anthropogenic activity are usually intertwined, and difficult to disentangle in a quantitative way. Here, we leveraged an ensemble of five machine learning (ML) models and multiple satellite-based observations to conduct global fire modeling for three fire metrics (burned area, fire number, and fire size), and quantified driving mechanisms underlying annual fire changes in a spatially resolved manner for the period 2003–2019. Ensemble learning is a meta-approach that combines multiple ML predictions to improve accuracy, robustness, and generalization performance. We found that the optimized ensemble ML well reproduced annual dynamics of global burned area (R 2 = 0.90, P < 0.001), total fire numbers (R 2 = 0.86, P < 0.001), and averaged fire size (R 2 = 0.70, P < 0.001). Additionally, the ensemble ML captured key spatial patterns of multi-year mean magnitudes, annual variabilities, anomalies, and trends for different fire metrics. Our ML-based fire attributions further highlighted the dominant role of enhanced anthropogenic activity in reducing global burned area (–1.9 Mha/yr, P < 0.01), followed by climate control (–1.3 Mha/yr, P < 0.01) and insignificant positive vegetation control (0.4 Mha/yr, P = 0.60). Spatially, climate dominated a much larger burned area (53.7%) than human (23.4%) or vegetation control (22.9%); however, the counteracting effects from regional wetting and drying trends weakened the net climate impacts on global burned area. The fire number and fire size exhibited similar spatial control patterns with burned area; globally, however, fire number tended to be more affected by climate while fire size more influenced by human activities. Overall, our study confirmed the feasibility and efficiency of ensemble ML in global fire modeling and subsequent control attributions, providing a better understanding of contemporary fire regimes and contributing to robust fire projections in a changing environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Automation of Vulnerability and Patch Management: Information Extraction, Association, and Optimization

Vulnerability and patch management is an integral part of a robust cybersecurity program, yet it grows increasingly complex due to the sheer amount of data that must be analyzed. Particularly in Operational Technology (OT) environments, analysis must be done manually because of the lack of automated solutions. Additionally, there are many steps in this process, from the initial discovery of the vulnerability to the implementation of its remediation, and each step in the process requires different data in order to be performed effectively. In this work, we provide approaches and strategies to assist operators in industrial or OT environments throughout the vulnerability management cycle. Security advisories provide key information about mitigation strategies, or actions that can be taken when a patch is unavailable or cannot be installed. Details of these strategies are not shared in public vulnerability databases and must be found manually. We approach this problem by designing a solution to automatically identify that information within vendor security advisories and retrieve it for operator use. We start with an approach that requires domain-specific knowledge of certain frequently-seen reference websites. Next, an approach that can work on an arbitrary website but relies on certain keywords. Finally, an approach that uses Natural Language Processing (NLP) methods and does not require specific knowledge or keywords. Each of these approaches is more general than its predecessor; we demonstrate high accuracy for all approaches Advisories also often contain details of affected products in non-standard or natural language formats. While this information can be easily understood when read by an operator, the non-standard format acts as a barrier to effective automation. We provide an approach for the first step in this process: identifying vendors in security advisories and mapping them to a standard framework for representing digital assets and software products. We evaluate five established string similarity algorithms, plus one of our own design that combines string similarity and information theory, on the task of mapping vendors to their corresponding entries in the Common Platform Enumeration (CPE) repository. Our results show that our proposed metric outperforms all others. Due to the constraints on time, finances, and personnel for organizations, Large Language Models (LLMs) may seem like attractive opportunities for security operators to speed up information gathering; however, it is still not clear whether LLMs can handle vulnerability management tasks well. To answer this question, we perform an empirical study of LLMs’ ability to provide consistent, accurate information about vulnerabilities in order to guide organizations in their adoption of LLMs. We observe poor performance for all models tested, suggesting that these models are not well-suited to the consistent retrieval of accurate vulnerability information. Finally, once vulnerabilities have been identified and any additional information has been obtained, operators must decide which remediation actions to implement based on their available resources. This already-complex problem becomes even more so when we consider that a vulnerability may have multiple avenues for remediation. We formulate this scenario as two knapsack problems and provide solutions, which we then compare against several existing strategies for vulnerability prioritization seen in real operational environments.

McClanahan, Kylie↗

DOE OSTI2026

Audi e-tron Green Light Optimized Speed Advisory On-Road Data

To aid researchers in studying the capabilities and benefits of vehicle-to-infrastructure communication, Argonne National Laboratory collected a robust set of on-road driving data of the Audi Green Light Optimized Speed Advisory (GLOSA) system implemented in the e-tron battery electric vehicle. This dataset includes 33 tests, each roughly 27 miles in length and roughly 45 to 75 minutes in duration. The team selected Kane County Highway Route 34 from Main Street in Batavia, Illinois to Middlecreek Lane in St. Charles, Illinois as the route do to its high density of GLOSA-active lights and the most opportunities to observe the system per hour of test time. The data include parameters from the following sources: GLOSA system driving the dash indicators, multiple powertrain parameters including real-time battery power/energy consumption, GPS, front radar gap, and rear radar gap. ![audio-e-tron image](audi-e-tron.jpg)

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Ultrafast Dynamics of Photosynthetic Light Harvesting: Strategies for Acclimation Across Organisms

Photosynthetic light harvesting exhibits near-unity quantum efficiency. The high efficiency is achieved through a series of energy and charge transfer steps within a network of pigment-containing proteins. Remarkably, high efficiency is conserved across many organisms despite differences in the protein structures and organization that allow each organism to respond to its own biological niche and the stressors within. In this review, we highlight recent progress toward understanding how organisms maintain optimal light-harvesting ability by acclimating to their environment. First, we review the building blocks of photosynthetic light harvesting, energy transfer, and time-resolved spectroscopic techniques. Then, we explore how three classes of photosynthetic organisms—purple bacteria, cyanobacteria, and green plants—optimize their light-harvesting apparatuses to their particular environment. Overall, research has shown that photosynthetic energy transfer is robust to changing environmental conditions, with each organism utilizing its own strategies to optimize photon capture in its particular biological niche.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS1991

Correlation techniques to determine model form in robust nonlinear system realization/identification

The fundamental challenge in identification of nonlinear dynamic systems is determining the appropriate form of the model. A robust technique is presented which essentially eliminates this problem for many applications. The technique is based on the Minimum Model Error (MME) optimal estimation approach. A detailed literature review is included in which fundamental differences between the current approach and previous work is described. The most significant feature is the ability to identify nonlinear dynamic systems without prior assumption regarding the form of the nonlinearities, in contrast to existing nonlinear identification approaches which usually require detailed assumptions of the nonlinearities. Model form is determined via statistical correlation of the MME optimal state estimates with the MME optimal model error estimates. The example illustrations indicate that the method is robust with respect to prior ignorance of the model, and with respect to measurement noise, measurement frequency, and measurement record length.

Stry, Greselda I.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Data driven drift correction for complex optical systems

To exploit the thousand-fold increase in spectral brightness of modern light sources, increasingly intricate experiments are being conducted that demand extremely precise beam trajectory. Maintaining the optimal trajectory over several hours of an experiment with the needed precision necessitates active drift control. Here, we outline time varying Bayesian optimization (TVBO) as a data driven approach for robust drift correction, and illustrate its application for a split and delay optical system composed of six crystals and twelve input dimensions. Using numerical simulations, we exhibit the application of TVBO for linear drift, non-smooth temporal drift as well as constrained TVBO for multi-objective control settings, representing real-life operating conditions. This approach can be easily adapted to other X-ray beam conditioning and guidance systems, including multi-crystal monochromators and grazing-incidence mirrors, to maintain sub-micrometer and nanoradian beam stability over the course of an experiment spanning several hours.

Bayesian optimization↗

NASA NTRS2017

BioWires: Conductive DNA Nanowires in a Computationally-Optimized, Synthetic Biological Platform for Nanoelectronic Fabrication

DNA is an ideal template for a biological nanowire-it has a linear structure several atoms thick; it possesses addressable nucleobase geometry that can be precisely defined; and it is massively scalable into branched networks. Until now, the drawback of DNA as a conducting nanowire been, simply put, its low conductance. To address this deficiency, we extensively characterize a chemical variant of canonical DNA that exploits the affinity of natural cytosine bases for silver ions. We successfully construct chains of single silver ions inside double-stranded DNA, confirm the basic dC-Ag+-dC bond geometry and kinetics, and show length-tunability dependent on mismatch distribution, ion availability and enzyme activity. An analysis of the absorbance spectra of natural DNA and silver-binding, poly-cytosine DNA demonstrates the heightened thermostability of the ion chain and its resistance to aqueous stresses such as precipitation, dialysis and forced reduction. These chemically critical traits lend themselves to an increase in electrical conductivity of over an order of magnitude for 11-base silver-paired duplexes over natural strands when assayed by STM break junction. We further construct and implement a genetic pathway in the E. coli bacterium for the biosynthesis of highly ionizable DNA sequences. Toward future circuits, we construct a model of transcription network architectures to determine the most efficient and robust connectivity for cell-based fabrication, and we perform sequence optimization with a genetic algorithm to identify oligonucleotides robust to changes in the base-pairing energy landscape. We propose that this system will serve as a synthetic biological fabrication platform for more complex DNA nanotechnology and nanoelectronics with applications to deep space and low resource environments.

DNA↗

DOE OSTI2025

Simulating large one-dimensional neutral-atom quantum systems

While abstract models of quantum computation assume a closed system of two-level states, practical quantum devices inevitably couple to the environment in some way, creating sources of noise. Understanding the tolerance to noise of specific quantum algorithms run on specific devices is important for determining the feasibility of quantum computing in the current noisy intermediate-scale quantum era. Of particular interest is understanding the noise sensitivity of these devices as more qubits are added to the system. Classical simulations are a useful tool to understand the effects of this noise, but direct classical simulations of open quantum systems are burdened by an exponentially growing cost in the number of qubits and a large local Hilbert space dimension. For onedimensional, shallow circuits, using tensor networks can replace this exponential cost with a linear one and simulate far wider systems than what would normally be available. In this paper, we describe a tensor network simulation of a neutral atom quantum system under the presence of noise, while introducing a purity-preserving truncation technique that compromises between the simplicity of the matrix product state and the positivity of the matrix product density operator. We apply this simulation to a near-optimized iteration of the quantum approximate optimization algorithm on a transverse field Ising model in order to investigate the influence of large system sizes on the performance of the algorithm. We find that while circuits with a large number of qubits fail more often under noise that depletes the qubit population, their outputs on a successful measurement are just as robust under Rydberg atom dissipation or qubit dephasing as smaller systems. However, such circuits might not perform as well under coherent multiqubit errors such as Rydberg atom crosstalk. We also find that the optimized parameters are especially robust to noise, suggesting that a noisier quantum system can be used to find the optimal parameters before switching to a cleaner system for measurements of observables.

Allen, James↗

NASA NTRS2003

Robust Control for Microgravity Vibration Isolation using Fixed Order, Mixed H2/Mu Design

Many space-science experiments need an active isolation system to provide a sufficiently quiescent microgravity environment. Modern control methods provide the potential for both high-performance and robust stability in the presence of parametric uncertainties that are characteristic of microgravity vibration isolation systems. While H2 and H(infinity) methods are well established, neither provides the levels of attenuation performance and robust stability in a compensator with low order. Mixed H2/H(infinity), controllers provide a means for maximizing robust stability for a given level of mean-square nominal performance while directly optimizing for controller order constraints. This paper demonstrates the benefit of mixed norm design from the perspective of robustness to parametric uncertainties and controller order for microgravity vibration isolation. A nominal performance metric analogous to the mu measure, for robust stability assessment is also introduced in order to define an acceptable trade space from which different control methodologies can be compared.

Whorton, Mark↗

NASA NTRS2004

Robust Control for The G-Limit Microgravity Vibration Isolation System

Many microgravity science experiments need an active isolation system to provide a sufficiently quiescent acceleration environment. The g-LIMIT vibration isolation system will provide isolation for Microgravity Science Glovebox experiments in the International Space Station. While standard control system technologies have been demonstrated for these applications, modern control methods have the potential for meeting performance requirements while providing robust stability in the presence of parametric uncertainties that are characteristic of microgravity vibration isolation systems. While H2 and H infinity methods are well established, neither provides the levels of attenuation performance and robust stability in a compensator with low order. Mixed H2/mu controllers provide a means for maximizing robust stability for a given level of mean-square nominal performance while directly optimizing for controller order constraints. This paper demonstrates the benefit of mixed norm design from the perspective of robustness to parametric uncertainties and controller order for microgravity vibration isolation. A nominal performance metric analogous to the mu measure for robust stability assessment is also introduced in order to define an acceptable trade space from which different control methodologies can be compared.

Whorton, Mark S.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Machine Learning, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, and Optimal Algorithms to Characterize the AdvACT Kilopixel Transition-Edge Sensor Arrays

Next-generation focal planes comprising dozens of kilopixel transition-edge sensor (TES) arrays require new methods to rapidly screen candidate arrays, evaluate array non-idealities in the field, identify outlier devices for removal, and optimize the array performance in the field. We demonstrate robust methods to estimate TES parameters (critical temperatures and thermal conductivity parameters) and their uncertainties using a custom Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. We also constrain systematic effects in estimating the TES parameters from non-isothermal current-voltage curves (IVs) at approximately a ~3% level. Additionally, for the first time, we have applied Machine Learning (ML) algorithms to tune detector arrays and optimize their performance.

Maria Salatino↗

DOE OSTI2021

AADL: Anderson Accelerated Deep Learning

We propose a stable, distributed approach to perform AA that accelerates the convergence rate of stochastic first-order optimizers to train neural networks. Differently from previous works, we do not alter neither the scheme to perform AA nor the loss function minimized during the training. To improve robustness against stagnation, we customize general guidelines that suggest to relax the frequency of AA corrections by performing AA only at the end of an entire training epoch. To improve robustness of AA against the stochastic oscillations of first-order optimizers, we average the gradients computed on consecutive stochastic optimization updates. The improved regularity of the converging sequence and the reduced amplitude of stochastic oscillations across consecutive optimization steps allows AA to efficiently extrapolate an improved converging sequence, thereby overcoming limitations of existing approaches to perform AA on stochastic optimization.

Lupo Pasini, Massimiliano [Oak Ridge National Lab.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Radiolytic Evaluation of 3,4,3-LI(1,2-HOPO) in Aqueous Solutions

We report the octadentate hydroxypyridinone ligand 3,4,3-LI(1,2-HOPO) (abbreviated as HOPO) has been identified as a promising candidate for both chelation and f-element separation technologies, two applications that require optimal performance in radiation environments. However, the radiation robustness of HOPO is currently unknown. Here, we employ a combination of time-resolved (electron pulse) and steady-state (alpha self-radiolysis) irradiation techniques to elucidate the basic chemistry of HOPO and its f-element complexes in aqueous radiation environments. Chemical kinetics were measured for the reaction of HOPO and its Nd(III) ion complex ([Nd III (HOPO)] - ) with key aqueous radiation-induced radical transients (eaq - , H · atom, and · OH and NO 3 · radicals). The reaction of HOPO with eaq - is believed to proceed via reduction of the hydroxypyridinone moiety, while transient adduct spectra indicate that reactions with the H · atom and · OH and NO 3 · radicals proceeded by addition to HOPO's hydroxypyridinone rings, potentially allowing for the generation of an extensive suite of addition products. Complementary steady-state 241 Am(III)-HOPO complex ([ 241 Am III (HOPO)] - ) irradiations showed the gradual release of 241 Am(III) ions with increasing alpha dose up to 100 kGy, although complete ligand destruction was not observed.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗