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NASA NTRS2011

IVGEN

The Exploration Medical Capabilities Element of NASA's Human Research Program chartered the IV fluid GENeration (IVGEN) project at the NASA Glenn Research Center to develop a system that could produce IV fluid in a microgravity environment meeting USP standards. NASA's flight surgeons have identified medical conditions likely to arise during exploration missions of various length and distance from the earth. Adequately treating some of those conditions will require the ability to utilize Intravenous (IV) therapy to either serve as a method for delivering pharmaceuticals that can only be administered via that route, or to hydrate patients that are unable to hydrate themselves. Given that need, NASA currently maintains a reserve of IV fluid on ISS sufficient to treat an astronaut until they can be returned to earth, which is generally within 24 hours. Because such a rapid return will not be an designed to produce United States Pharmacopeia ( USP) grade IV fluid in a reduced gravity p option for missions extending beyond low earth orbit, NASA must either fly as many as 100 liters of IV fluid, with a total mass of 100 Kg, or provide systems that can use vehicle resources to produce such fluid if it is needed. The IVGEN hardware, a compact water purification and mixing system, was environment using available resources.

DeVon, Griffin↗

NASA NTRS2015

Report on ISS O2 Production, Gas Supply and Partial Pressure Management

Oxygen is used on International Space Station (ISS) for metabolic support and denitrogenation procedures prior to Extra-Vehicular Activities. Nitrogen is used to maintain total pressure and account for losses associated with leakage and operational losses. Oxygen and nitrogen have been supplied by various visiting vehicles such as the Progress and Shuttle in addition to the on-orbit oxygen production capability. Starting in 2014, new high pressure oxygen/nitrogen tanks are available to launch on commercial cargo vehicles and will replace the high pressure gas source that Shuttle used to provide. To maintain a habitable atmosphere the oxygen and nitrogen partial pressures are controlled between upper and lower bounds. The full range of the allowable partial pressures along with the increased ISS cabin volume are utilized as a buffer allowing days to pass between oxygen production or direct addition of oxygen and nitrogen to the atmosphere from reserves. This paper summarizes the amount of gas supplied and produced from all of the sources and describes past experience of managing partial pressures along with the range of management options available to the ISS.

Schaezler, Ryan N.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Evaluation of the Oxygen Concentrator Prototypes: Pressure Swing Adsorption Prototype and Electrochemical Prototype

An oxygen concentrator is needed to provide enriched oxygen in support of medical contingency operations for future exploration human spaceflight programs. It would provide continuous oxygen to an ill or injured crew member in a closed cabin environment. Oxygen concentration technology is being pursued to concentrate oxygen from the ambient environment so oxygen as a consumable resource can be reduced. Because oxygen is a critical resource in manned spaceflight, using an oxygen concentrator to pull oxygen out of the ambient environment instead of using compressed oxygen can provide better optimization of resources. The overall goal of this project is to develop an oxygen concentrator module that minimizes the hardware mass, volume, and power footprint while still performing at the required clinical capabilities. Should a medical event occur that requires patient oxygenation, the release of 100 percent oxygen into a small closed cabin environment can rapidly raise oxygen levels to the vehicles fire limit. The use of an oxygen concentrator to enrich oxygen from the ambient air and concentrate it to the point where it can be used for medical purposes means no oxygen is needed from the ultra-high purity (99.5+% O2) oxygen reserve tanks. By not adding oxygen from compressed tanks to the cabin environment, oxygen levels can be kept below the vehicle fire limit thereby extending the duration of care provided to an oxygenated patient without environmental control system intervention to keep the cabin oxygen levels below the fire limits. The oxygen concentrator will be a Food and Drug Administration (FDA) clearable device. A demonstration unit for the International Space Station (ISS) is planned to verify the technology and provide oxygen capability. For the ISS, the demonstration unit should not exceed 10 kg (approximately 22 lb), which is the soft stowage mass limit for launch on resupply vehicles for the ISS. The unit's size should allow for transport within the spacecraft to an ill crewmember. The user interface needs to be designed for ease of use by the local care provider and with consideration to the limited amount of training available to the astronaut corps for medical equipment and procedures.

Gilkey, Kelly M.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Human and Robotic Exploration Missions to Phobos Prior to Crewed Mars Surface Missions

Phobos is a scientifically significant destination that would facilitate the development and operation of the human Mars transportation infrastructure, unmanned cargo delivery systems and other Mars surface systems. In addition to developing systems relevant to Mars surface missions, Phobos offers engineering, operational, and public engagement opportunities that could enhance subsequent Mars surface operations. These opportunities include the use of low latency teleoperations to control Mars surface assets associated with exploration science, human landing‐site selection and infrastructure development which may include in situ resource utilization (ISRU) to provide liquid oxygen for the Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV). A human mission to Mars' moons would be preceded by a cargo predeploy of a surface habitat and a pressurized excursion vehicle (PEV) to Mars orbit. Once in Mars orbit, the habitat and PEV would spiral to Phobos using solar electric propulsion based systems, with the habitat descending to the surface and the PEV remaining in orbit. When a crewed mission is launched to Phobos, it would include the remaining systems to support the crew during the Earth‐Mars transit and to reach Phobos after insertion in to Mars orbit. The crew would taxi from Mars orbit to Phobos to join with the predeployed systems in a spacecraft that is based on a MAV, dock with and transfer to the PEV in Phobos orbit, and descend in the PEV to the surface habitat. A static Phobos surface habitat was chosen as a baseline architecture, in combination with the PEV that was used to descend from orbit as the main exploration vehicle. The habitat would, however, have limited capability to relocate on the surface to shorten excursion distances required by the PEV during exploration and to provide rescue capability should the PEV become disabled. To supplement exploration capabilities of the PEV, the surface habitat would utilize deployable EVA support structures that allow astronauts to work from portable foot restraints or body restrain tethers in the vicinity of the habitat. Prototype structures were tested as part of NEEMO 20. PEVs would contain closed loop guidance and provide life support and consumables for two crew for 2 weeks plus reserves. The PEV has a cabin that uses the exploration atmosphere of 8.2 psi with 34% oxygen, enabling use of suit ports for rapid EVA with minimal oxygen prebreathe as well as dust control by keeping the suits outside the pressurized volume. When equipped with outriggers and control moment gyros, the PEV enables EVA tasks of up to 8 pounds of force application without the need to anchor. Tasks with higher force requirements can be performed with PEV propulsion providing the necessary thrust to react forces. Exploration of Phobos builds heavily from the developments of the cis‐lunar proving ground, and significantly reduces Mars surface risk by facilitating the development and testing of habitats, MAVs, and pressurized rover cabins that are all Mars surface forward. A robotic precursor mission to Phobos and Deimos is also under consideration and would need to launch in 2022 to support a 2031 human Phobos mission.

Gernhardt, Michael L.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Veggie ISS Validation Test Results and Produce Consumption

The Veggie vegetable production system flew to the International Space Station (ISS) in the spring of 2014. The first set of plants, Outredgeous red romaine lettuce, was grown, harvested, frozen, and returned to Earth in October. Ground control and flight plant tissue was sub-sectioned for microbial analysis, anthocyanin antioxidant phenolic analysis, and elemental analysis. Microbial analysis was also performed on samples swabbed on orbit from plants, Veggie bellows, and plant pillow surfaces, on water samples, and on samples of roots, media, and wick material from two returned plant pillows. Microbial levels of plants were comparable to ground controls, with some differences in community composition. The range in aerobic bacterial plate counts between individual plants was much greater in the ground controls than in flight plants. No pathogens were found. Anthocyanin concentrations were the same between ground and flight plants, while antioxidant and phenolic levels were slightly higher in flight plants. Elements varied, but key target elements for astronaut nutrition were similar between ground and flight plants. Aerobic plate counts of the flight plant pillow components were significantly higher than ground controls. Surface swab samples showed low microbial counts, with most below detection limits. Flight plant microbial levels were less than bacterial guidelines set for non-thermostabalized food and near or below those for fungi. These guidelines are not for fresh produce but are the closest approximate standards. Forward work includes the development of standards for space-grown produce. A produce consumption strategy for Veggie on ISS includes pre-flight assessments of all crops to down select candidates, wiping flight-grown plants with sanitizing food wipes, and regular Veggie hardware cleaning and microbial monitoring. Produce then could be consumed by astronauts, however some plant material would be reserved and returned for analysis. Implementation of this plan is a step toward developing pick-and-eat food production to supplement the packaged diet on ISS and for future exploration missions where plants could make up a larger portion of the diet. Supported by NASA Space Biology Program.

Food Safety↗

NASA NTRS2014

Groundwater Depletion During Drought Threatens Future Water Security of the Colorado River Basin

Streamflow of the Colorado River Basin is the most overallocated in the world. Recent assessment indicates that demand for this renewable resource will soon outstrip supply, suggesting that limited groundwater reserves will play an increasingly important role in meeting future water needs. Here we analyze 9 years (December 2004 to November 2013) of observations from the NASA Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment mission and find that during this period of sustained drought, groundwater accounted for 50.1 cu km of the total 64.8 cu km of freshwater loss. The rapid rate of depletion of groundwater storage (5.6 +/- 0.4 cu km/yr) far exceeded the rate of depletion of Lake Powell and Lake Mead. Results indicate that groundwater may comprise a far greater fraction of Basin water use than previously recognized, in particular during drought, and that its disappearance may threaten the long-term ability to meet future allocations to the seven Basin states.

water security↗

NASA NTRS2015

Developing Data Citations from Digital Object Identifier Metadata

NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS) Project has been processing information for the registration of Digital Object Identifiers (DOI) for the last five years of which an automated system has been in operation for the last two years. The ESDIS DOI registration system has registered over 2000 DOIs with over 1000 DOIs held in reserve until all required information has been collected. By working towards the goal of assigning DOIs to the 8000+ data collections under its management, ESDIS has taken the first step towards facilitating the use of data citations with those products. Jeanne Behnke, ESDIS Deputy Project Manager has reviewed and approved the poster.

digital object idenifiers↗

NASA NTRS2016

Historical Mass, Power, Schedule, and Cost Growth for NASA Spacecraft

Although spacecraft developers have been moving towards standardized product lines as the aerospace industry has matured, NASA's continual need to push the cutting edge of science to accomplish unique, challenging missions can still lead to spacecraft resource growth over time. This paper assesses historical mass, power, cost, and schedule growth for multiple NASA spacecraft from the last twenty years and compares to industry reserve guidelines to understand where the guidelines may fall short. Growth is assessed from project start to launch, from the time of the preliminary design review (PDR) to launch and from the time of the critical design review (CDR) to launch. Data is also assessed not just at the spacecraft bus level, but also at the subsystem level wherever possible, to help obtain further insight into possible drivers of growth. Potential recommendations to minimize spacecraft mass, power, cost, and schedule growth for future missions are also discussed.

Schedule↗

NASA NTRS2016

Capillary Two-Phase Thermal Devices for Space Applications

This is the presentation file for an invited seminar for Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering at the Case Western Reserve University. The seminar is scheduled for April 1, 2016.Description: This presentation will discuss operating principles and performance characteristics of heat pipes (HPs) and loop heat pipes (LHPs) and their application for spacecraft thermal control. Topics include: 1) HP operating principles; 2) HP performance characteristics; 3) LHP pressure profiles; 4) LHP operating temperature; 5) LHP operating temperature control; and 6) Examples of using HPs and LHPs on NASA flight projects.

Thermal Contgrol↗

NASA NTRS2016

Atmospheric In-Situ Resource Utilization For Mars Application

NASA now looks to Mars as the next step in human space exploration. A couple of challenges of such a destination include affordability and weight/volume limitations. As a way to solve these issues NASA is looking into the practice of In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU). Instead of manufacturing and bringing all the supplies necessary for a Mars mission and return trip, the goal is to send a preliminary mission to produce reserves of propellant, water, and oxygen on site. Part of this effort includes the Atmospheric Processing Module (APM). The APM is part of a lander that is composed of multiple compartments, each having a unique function; regolith collection/processing, water processing, atmospheric processing, and product storage. The overall goal is to develop the capability to produce methane (CH4) and oxygen as a fuel/oxidizer combo via a Sabatier reaction using resources from the Martian environment. The APM still must undergo modifications in design, and perhaps method, to become flight-ready to produce methane at the level of purity and quantity needed for a vehicle.

isru↗

NASA NTRS2016

Three Generations of Tracking and Data Relay Satellite (TDRS) Spacecraft

The current Tracking and Data Relay Satellite configuration consists of nine in-orbit satellites (four first generation, three second generation and two third generation satellites) globally distributed in geosynchronous orbit to provide near continuous data relay service to missions like Hubble Space Telescope and the International Space Station. The 1st generation spacecraft were designed by TRW/Northrop Grumman with their launches of the five spacecraft ranging from 1983 through 1995. The 2nd and 3rd generation spacecraft were designed by Boeing with their launches ranging 2000 - 2002 and 2013 - 2017 respectively. TDRS-3 is now 27 years on orbit, continues to be a capable asset for the TDRS constellation. Lack of need for inclination control combined with large fuel reserves and redundancy on critical elements provides spacecraft that operate well past design life, all of which contributes to expanded TDRS constellation support capabilities. All spacecraft generations have issues. Significant issues will be summarized with the focus on the Boeing related problems. Degradations and failures are continually assessed and provide the foundation for yearly updates to spacecraft reliability models, constellation service projections and deorbit plans (in order to meet NASAs mandate of limiting orbital debris). Even when accounting for degradations and failures, the life expectancy for the Boeing delivered 2nd generation TDRS-8, 9 10 TDRS are anticipated to be 25+ years.

TDRS↗

NASA NTRS2016

NASA's Hydrogen Outpost: The Rocket Systems Area at Plum Brook Station

"There was pretty much a general knowledge about hydrogen and its capabilities," recalled former researcher Robert Graham. "The question was, could you use it in a rocket engine? Do we have the technology to handle it? How will it cool? Will it produce so much heat release that we can't cool the engine? These were the questions that we had to address." The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Glenn Research Center, referred to historically as the Lewis Research Center, made a concerted effort to answer these and related questions in the 1950s and 1960s. The center played a critical role transforming hydrogen's theoretical potential into a flight-ready propellant. Since then NASA has utilized liquid hydrogen to send humans and robots to the Moon, propel dozens of spacecraft across the universe, orbit scores of satellite systems, and power 135 space shuttle flights. Rocket pioneers had recognized hydrogen's potential early on, but its extremely low boiling temperature and low density made it impracticable as a fuel. The Lewis laboratory first demonstrated that liquid hydrogen could be safely utilized in rocket and aircraft propulsion systems, then perfected techniques to store, pump, and cleanly burn the fuel, as well as use it to cool the engine. The Rocket Systems Area at Lewis's remote testing area, Plum Brook Station, played a little known, but important role in the center's hydrogen research efforts. This publication focuses on the activities at the Rocket Systems Area, but it also discusses hydrogen's role in NASA's space program and Lewis's overall hydrogen work. The Rocket Systems Area included nine physically modest test sites and three test stands dedicated to liquid-hydrogen-related research. In 1962 Cleveland Plain Dealer reporter Karl Abram claimed, "The rocket facility looks more like a petroleum refinery. Its test rigs sprout pipes, valves and tanks. During the night test runs, excess hydrogen is burned from special stacks in the best Oklahoma oil field tradition." Besides the Rocket Systems Area, Plum Brook Station also included a nuclear test reactor, a large vacuum tank, a hypersonic wind tunnel, and a full-scale upper-stage rocket stand. The Rocket Systems Area operated from 1961 until NASA shut down all of Plum Brook in 1974. The center reopened Plum Brook in the late 1980s and continues to use several test facilities. The Rocket Systems Area, however, was not restored. Today Plum Brook resembles a nature preserve more than an oil refinery. Lush fields and forests separate the large test facilities. Until recently, the abandoned Rocket Systems Area structures and equipment were visible amongst the greenery. These space-age ruins, particularly the three towers, stood as silent sentinels over the sparsely populated reservation. Few knew the story of these mysterious facilities when NASA removed them in the late 2000s.

Rocket Systems↗

NASA NTRS2016

Developing the Water Supply System for Travel to Mars

What water supply method should be used on a trip to Mars? Two alternate approaches are using fuel cell and stored water, as was done for short missions such as Apollo and the Space Shuttle, or recycling most of the water, as on long missions including the International Space Station (ISS). Stored water is inexpensive for brief missions but its launch mass and cost become very large for long missions. Recycling systems have much lower total mass and cost for long missions, but they have high development cost and are more expensive to operate than storage. A Mars transit mission would have an intermediate duration of about 450 days out and back. Since Mars transit is about ten times longer than a brief mission but probably less than one-tenth as long as ISS, it is not clear if stored or recycled water would be best. Recycling system design is complicated because water is used for different purposes, drinking, food preparation, washing, and flushing the urinal, and because wastewater has different forms, humidity condensate, dirty wash water, and urine and flush water. The uses have different requirements and the wastewater resources have different contaminants and processing requirements. The most cost-effective water supply system may recycle some wastewater sources and also provide safety reserve water from storage. Different water supply technologies are compared using mass, cost, reliability, and other factors.

water supply↗

NASA NTRS2016

Single-Event Latchup Testing of the Micrel MIC4424 Dual Power MOSFET Driver

We conducted 47 exposures of four different MIC4424 devices and did not observe any SEL or high-current events. This included worst-case conditions with a LET of 81 MeV-sq cm/mg, applied voltage of 18.5 V, a case temperature greater than 120 C, and a final fluence of 1x10(exp 7)/sq cm. We also monitored both the outputs for the presence of SETs. While the period of the 1 MHz square wave was slightly altered in some cases, no pulses were added or deleted. 1. Purpose: The purpose of this testing is to characterize the BiCMOS/DMOS Micrel MIC4424 dual, non-inverting MOSFET driver for single-event latchup (SEL) susceptibility. These data will be used for flight lot evaluation purposes. 2. Devices Tested: The MIC4423/4424/4425 family are highly reliable BiCMOS/DMOS buffer/driver MOSFET drivers. They are higher output current versions of the MIC4426/4427/4428. They can survive up to 5V of noise spiking, of either polarity, on the ground pin. They can accept, without either damage or logic upset, up to half an amp of reverse current (either polarity) forced back into their outputs. Primarily intended for driving power MOSFETs, the MIC4423/4424/4425 drivers are suitable for driving other loads (capacitive, resistive, or inductive) which require low-impedance, high peak currents, and fast switching times. Heavily loaded clock lines, coaxial cables, or piezoelectric transducers are some examples. The only known limitation on loading is that total power dissipated in the driver must be kept within the maximum power dissipation limits of the package. Five (5) parts were provided for SEL testing. We prepared four parts for irradiation and reserved one piece as an un-irradiated control. More information about the devices can be found in Table 1. The parts were prepared for testing by removing the lid from the CDIP package to expose the target die. The parts were then soldered to small copper circuit adapter boards for easy handling. These parts are fabricated in a bulk BiCMOS/DMOS technology. Since we do not know the number of overlayers used in the fabrication processes, linear energy transfer calculations are determined based on the top-surface incident ion species and kinetic energy.

Power MOSFET↗

NASA NTRS2016

Reevaluating Suitability Estimates Based on Dynamics of Cropland Expansion in the Brazilian Amazon

Agricultural suitability maps are a key input for land use zoning and projections of cropland expansion. Suitability assessments typically consider edaphic conditions, climate, crop characteristics, and sometimes incorporate accessibility to transportation and market infrastructure. However, correct weighting among these disparate factors is challenging, given rapid development of new crop varieties, irrigation, and road networks, as well as changing global demand for agricultural commodities. Here, we compared three independent assessments of cropland suitability to spatial and temporal dynamics of agricultural expansion in the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso during 2001 2012. We found that areas of recent cropland expansion identified using satellite data were generally designated as low to moderate suitability for rainfed crop production. Our analysis highlighted the abrupt nature of suitability boundaries, rather than smooth gradients of agricultural potential, with little additional cropland expansion beyond the extent of the flattest areas (0-2% slope). Satellite-based estimates of the interannual variability in the use of existing crop areas also provided an alternate means to assess suitability. On average, cropland areas in the Cerrado biome had higher utilization (84%) than croplands in the Amazon region of northern Mato Grosso (74%). Areas of more recent expansion had lower utilization than croplands established before 2002, providing empirical evidence for lower suitability or alternative management strategies (e.g., pasture soya rotations) for lands undergoing more recent land use transitions. This unplanted reserve constitutes a large area of potentially available cropland (PAC)without further expansion, within the management limits imposed for pest management and fallow cycles. Using two key constraints on future cropland expansion, slope and restrictions on further deforestation of Amazon or Cerrado vegetation, we found little available flat land for further legal expansion of crop production in Mato Grosso. Dynamics of cropland expansion from more than a decade of satellite observations indicated narrow ranges of suitability criteria, restricting PAC under current policy conditions, and emphasizing the advantages of field-scale information to assess suitability and utilization.

Morton, Douglas C.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Validation of Globsnow-2 Snow Water Equivalent Over Eastern Canada

In Qubec, Eastern Canada, snowmelt runoff contributes more than 30% of the annual energy reserve for hydroelectricity production, and uncertainties in annual maximum snow water equivalent (SWE) over the region are one of the main constraints for improved hydrological forecasting. Current satellite-based methods for mapping SWE over Qubec's main hydropower basins do not meet Hydro-Qubec operational requirements for SWE accuracies with less than 15% error. This paper assesses the accuracy of the GlobSnow-2 (GS-2) SWE product, which combines microwave satellite data and in situ measurements, for hydrological applications in Qubec. GS-2 SWE values for a 30-year period (1980 to 2009) were compared with space- and time-matched values from a comprehensive dataset of in situ SWE measurements (a total of 38,990 observations in Eastern Canada). The root mean square error (RMSE) of the GS-2 SWE product is 94.1+/- 20.3 mm, corresponding to an overall relative percentage error (RPE) of 35.9%. The main sources of uncertainty are wet and deep snow conditions (when SWE is higher than 150 mm), and forest cover type. However, compared to a typical stand-alone brightness temperature channel difference algorithm, the assimilation of surface information in the GS-2 algorithm clearly improves SWE accuracy by reducing the RPE by about 30%. Comparison of trends in annual mean and maximum SWE between surface observations and GS-2 over 1980-2009 showed agreement for increasing trends over southern Qubec, but less agreement on the sign and magnitude of trends over northern Qubec. Extended at a continental scale, the GS-2 SWE trends highlight a strong regional variability.

Snow water equivalent↗

NASA NTRS2017

Time and Measurement Days

Questions in data analysis involving the concepts of time and measurement are often pushed into the background or reserved for a philosophical discussion. Some examples are: a) Is causality a consequence of the laws of physics, or can the arrow of time be reversed? b) Can we determine the arrow of time of an event? c) Do we need the continuum hypothesis for the underlying function in any measurement process? d) Can we say anything about the analyticity of the underlying process of an event? e) Would it be valid to model a non-analytical process as function of time? f) What are the implications of all these questions for classical Fourier techniques? However, in the age of big data gathered either from space missions supplying ultra-precise long time series, or e.g. LIGO data from the ground, the moment to bring these questions to the foreground seems arrived. The limitations of our understanding of some fundamental processes is emphasized by the lack of solution for problems open for more than 2 decades, such as the non-detection of solar g-modes, or the modal identification of main sequence stellar pulsators like delta Scuti stars. Flicker noise or 1/f noise, for example, attributed in solar-like stars to granulation, is analyzed mostly only to apply noise reduction techniques, neither considering the classical problem of 1/f noise that was introduced a 100 years ago, nor taking into account ergodic or non-ergodic solutions that make inapplicable spectral analysis techniques in practice. This topic was discussed by Nicholas W. Watkins during the ITISE meeting held in Granada in 2016. There he presented preliminary results of his research on Mandelbrot's related work. We reproduce here his quotation of Mandelbrot (1999) "There is a sharp contrast between a highly anomalous ("non-white") noise that proceeds in ordinary clock time and a noise whose principal anomaly is that it is restricted to fractal time", suggesting a connection with the above proposed topics that could be phrased as the following additional questions:a) Is self-organized criticality (SOC) frequent in astrophysical phenomena? b) Could all fractals in nature be considered stochastic? c) Could we establish mathematical/physical relationships between chaotic and fractal behaviors in time series? d) Could the differences between fractals and chaos in terms of analyticity be used to understand the residuals of the fitting of stellar light curves? In this meeting we would like to approximate these problems from a holistic and multidisciplinary perspective, taking into account not only technical issues but also the deeper implications. In particular the concept of connectivity (introduced in Pascual-Granado et al. A&A, 2015) could be used to implement, within the framework of ARMA processes, an "arrow of time" (see attached document), and so studying the possible implications in the concept of time as envisaged by Watkins.

data analysis↗

NASA NTRS2017

Converging Climate Sensitivities of European Forests Between Observed Radial Tree Growth and Vegetation Models

The impacts of climate variability and trends on European forests are unevenly distributed across different bioclimatic zones and species. Extreme climate events are also becoming more frequent and it is unknown how they will affect feed backs of CO2 between forest ecosystems and the atmosphere. An improved understanding of species differences at the regional scale of the response of forest productivity to climate variation and extremes is thus important for forecasting forest dynamics. In this study, we evaluate the climate sensitivity of above ground net primary production (NPP) simulated by two dynamic global vegetation models (DGVM; ORCHIDEE and LPJ-wsl) against tree ring width (TRW) observations from about1000 sites distributed across Europe. In both the model simulations and the TRW observations, forests in northern Europe and the Alps respond positively to warmer spring and summer temperature, and their overall temperature sensitivity is larger than that of the soil-moisture-limited forests in central Europe and Mediterranean regions. Compared with TRW observations, simulated NPP from ORCHIDEE and LPJ-wsl appear to be overly sensitive to climatic factors. Our results indicate that the models lack biological processes that control time lags, such as carbohydrate storage and remobilization, that delay the effects of radial growth dynamics to climate. Our study highlights the need for re-evaluating the physiological controls on the climate sensitivity of NPP simulated by DGVMs. In particular, DGVMs could be further enhanced by a more detailed representation of carbon reserves and allocation that control year-to year variation in plant growth.

Zhang, Zhen↗