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At least 667 records · Page 37

Risk-informed Predictive Analytics To Achieve Cost-effective Condition-based Monitoring And Maintenance Strategy

The research involves developing risk-informed predictive analytic capabilities to achieve condition-based monitoring and maintenance strategies to reduce overall maintenance costs. The research utilizes data (real-time data, periodic data, and institutional knowledge) related to a particular plant asset from a specific nuclear plant site to develop risk-informed predictive analytic algorithms. The developed algorithms and codes are used to optimize the maintenance strategy and estimate/forecast generation costs based on the state of health of the plant asset. Developed codes specifically include 1. Parameter estimation code based on Bayesian inference 2. Statistical data analysis code 3. Feature engineering code 4. Health classifier code 5. Diagnosis code 6. Prognosis code 7. Hazard code 8. Generation risk code 9. Economic code

Agarwal, Vivek↗

Code Release for “Unlocking Extreme Space Weather through Advanced Modeling of Legacy Vela Spacecraft” ER

The software being developed for this project has two mains aims. First, a Bayesian Model Calibration (BMC) procedure is being developed to calibrate a spallation model that simulates protons hitting a spacecraft orbiting earth to real data. The procedure will be developed for general data (there is no data release requested as part of this code release). Second, an inverse physics modeling task is being undertaken to map the number of resulting neutrons observed from this process to the expected number of protons that hit the model. This second task is of statistical interest; to publish on it, the code will need to be open source.

Murph, Alexander↗

Scalable Predictive And Risk Technologies

The research involves developing scalable technologies for risk-informed predictive analytics to achieve condition-based monitoring and maintenance strategies to reduce overall maintenance costs. The research utilizes data (real-time data, periodic data, and institutional knowledge) related to a particular plant asset from a specific nuclear plant site to develop technologies to scale risk-informed predictive analytic algorithms across different plant assets at the plant site and across the nuclear fleet. The developed algorithms and codes are used to optimize the maintenance strategy and estimate/forecast generation costs based on the state of health of the plant asset. Developed codes specifically include 1. Parameter estimation using plant operation data 2. Federated and Transfer learning model 3. Feature group based Multi-kernel SVM 4. Three state markov model

Manjunatha, KoushikAraseethota↗

pyFLANK, a graph neural network based null distribution inference model for F ST outlier detection

Detecting genomic regions under selection is essential for understanding how populations adapt to different environments, yet it remains challenging due to the confounding effects of demographic history and linkage disequilibrium (LD). Fixation index (F ST ) is a widely used statistic to identify genomic regions under adaptation. However, identifying genes under selection by defining F ST outliers often remains challenging, owing to confounding effects of underlying demographic history. Traditional methods assume independence among loci and rely on simple demographic models, while newer models perform much better but are computationally expensive and not easily scalable. Here, we present pyFLANK, an open-source and automated Python implementation which detects F ST outliers using a null distribution inferred from quasi-independent loci. Our tool integrates three approaches to identify loci obeying a null distribution: graph neural network (GNN) inference, linkage disequilibrium (LD)-based inference, and user-defined input. Because pyFLANK uses GNN-based inference of quasi-independent loci, it yields a more accurate null model with less need for user parameter input. In simulation experiments, pyFLANK achieved lower false positive rates than current methods while maintaining comparable detection power, indicating that its refined null model better distinguishes true adaptive loci from background variation. The GNN-based model, in particular, detected additional loci associated with phenotypic variance that were not identified by existing methods. Assessments of simulation and real data from different species demonstrate that pyFLANK achieves lower false positive rates compared with other commonly used F ST outlier detectors, while maintaining comparable detection power and excellent computational performance, providing a robust and user-friendly tool for identifying loci under divergent selection. It extends existing F ST outlier frameworks by incorporating explicit LD-aware strategies for null model calibration. The method is intended as a practical and scalable complement to existing genome scan approaches.

FST↗

Capturing Travel Mode Adoption in Designing On-Demand Multimodal Transit Systems

This paper studies how to integrate rider mode preferences into the design of on-demand multimodal transit systems (ODMTSs). It is motivated by a common worry in transit agencies that an ODMTS may be poorly designed if the latent demand, that is, new riders adopting the system, is not captured. This paper proposes a bilevel optimization model to address this challenge, in which the leader problem determines the ODMTS design, and the follower problems identify the most cost efficient and convenient route for riders under the chosen design. The leader model contains a choice model for every potential rider that determines whether the rider adopts the ODMTS given her proposed route. To solve the bilevel optimization model, the paper proposes an exact decomposition method that includes Benders optimal cuts and no-good cuts to ensure the consistency of the rider choices in the leader and follower problems. Moreover, to improve computational efficiency, the paper proposes upper and lower bounds on trip durations for the follower problems, valid inequalities that strengthen the no-good cuts, and approaches to reduce the problem size with problem-specific preprocessing techniques. The proposed method is validated using an extensive computational study on a real data set from the Ann Arbor Area Transportation Authority, the transit agency for the broader Ann Arbor and Ypsilanti region in Michigan. The study considers the impact of a number of factors, including the price of on-demand shuttles, the number of hubs, and access to transit systems criteria. The designed ODMTSs feature high adoption rates and significantly shorter trip durations compared with the existing transit system and highlight the benefits of ensuring access for low-income riders. Finally, the computational study demonstrates the efficiency of the decomposition method for the case study and the benefits of computational enhancements that improve the baseline method by several orders of magnitude. Funding: This research was partly supported by National Science Foundation [Leap HI Proposal NSF-1854684] and the Department of Energy [Research Award 7F-30154].

Operations Research & Management Science↗

Optimized 3D co-registration of ultra-low-field and high-field magnetic resonance images

The prototypes of ultra-low-field (ULF) MRI scanners developed in recent years represent new, innovative, cost-effective and safer systems, which are suitable to be integrated in multi-modal (Magnetoencephalography and MRI) devices. Integrated ULF-MRI and MEG scanners could represent an ideal solution to obtain functional (MEG) and anatomical (ULF MRI) information in the same environment, without errors that may limit source reconstruction accuracy. However, the low resolution and signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of ULF images, as well as their limited coverage, do not generally allow for the construction of an accurate individual volume conductor model suitable for MEG localization. Thus, for practical usage, a high-field (HF) MRI image is also acquired, and the HF-MRI images are co-registered to the ULF-MRI ones. We address here this issue through an optimized pipeline (SWIM—Sliding WIndow grouping supporting Mutual information). The co-registration is performed by an affine transformation, the parameters of which are estimated using Normalized Mutual Information as the cost function, and Adaptive Simulated Annealing as the minimization algorithm. The sub-voxel resolution of the ULF images is handled by a sliding-window approach applying multiple grouping strategies to down-sample HF MRI to the ULF-MRI resolution. The pipeline has been tested on phantom and real data from different ULF-MRI devices, and comparison with well-known toolboxes for fMRI analysis has been performed. Our pipeline always outperformed the fMRI toolboxes (FSL and SPM). The HF–ULF MRI co-registration obtained by means of our pipeline could lead to an effective integration of ULF MRI with MEG, with the aim of improving localization accuracy, but also to help exploit ULF MRI in tumor imaging.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Bispectral Speckle Imaging Algorithm Performance on Specific Simulated Scenarios

The purpose of this report is to describe the anticipated performance of LLNL’s bispectral speckle imaging algorithm on specific imaging scenarios and further evaluate the regime over which bispectral speckle imaging can be used to compensate for atmospheric turbulence. This includes investigating a number of relevant Cn2 cases and multiple wavelengths. The anticipated performance described here will be evaluated based upon simulated imagery. As with any simulation, it must be realized that the full truth of the matter will be determined when real data is analyzed. This report assumes some basic familiarity with bispectral speckle imaging.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Modelling Energy Loss Mechanisms and a Determination of the Electron Energy Scale for the CDF Run II W Mass Measurement

The calibration of the calorimeter energy scale is vital to measuring the mass of the W boson at CDF Run II. For the second measurement of the W boson mass at CDF Run II, two independent simulations were developed. This thesis presents a detailed description of the modification and validation of Bremsstrahlung and pair production modelling in one of these simulations, UCL Fast Simulation, comparing to both geant4 and real data where appropriate. The total systematic uncertainty on the measurement of the W boson mass in the W → ev e channel from residual inaccuracies in Bremsstrahlung modelling is estimated as 6.2 ±3.2 MeV/c 2 and the total systematic uncertainty from residual inaccuracies in pair production modelling is estimated as 2.8± 2.7 MeV=c 2 . Two independent methods are used to calibrate the calorimeter energy scale in UCL Fast Simulation; the results of these two methods are compared to produce a measurement of the Z boson mass as a cross-check on the accuracy of the simulation.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Observation of Muon Neutrino Charged Current Events in an Off-Axis Horn-Focused Neutrino Beam Using the NOvA Prototype Detector

The NOνA is a long base-line neutrino oscillation experiment. It will study the oscillations between muon and electron neutrinos through the Earth. NOνA consists of two detectors separated by 810 km. Each detector will measure the electron neutrino content of the neutrino (NuMI) beam. Differences between the measurements will reveal details about the oscillation channel. The NOνA collaboration built a prototype detector on the surface at Fermilab in order to develop calibration, simulation, and reconstruction tools, using real data. This 220 ton detector is 110 mrad off the NuMI beam axis. This off-axis location allows the observation of neutrino interactions with energies around 2 GeV, where neutrinos come predominantly from charged kaon decays. During the period between October 2011 and April 2012, the prototype detector collected neutrino data from 1.67 × 10 20 protons on target delivered by the NuMI beam. This analysis selected a number of candidate charged current muon neutrino events from the prototype data, which is 30% lower than predicted by the NOνA Monte Carlo simulation. The analysis suggests that the discrepancy comes from an over estimation of the neutrino flux in the Monte Carlo simulation, and in particular, from neutrinos generated in charged kaon decays. The ratio of measured divided by the simulated flux of muon neutrinos coming from charged kaon decays is: 0.70 +0.108 -0.094 . The NOνA collaboration may use the findings of this analysis to introduce a more accurate prediction of the neutrino flux produced by the NuMI beam in future Monte Carlo simulations.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Coding a Weather Model: DOE-FIU Science & Technology Workforce Development Program.

DOE Fellow, Andres Cremisini, completed a 10-week internship with Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) in Albuquerque, New Mexico. Under the management of Kristopher Klingler and the mentorship of Jon Bradley, he was tasked with conceiving and coding a realistic weather model for use in physical security applications. The objective was to make a weather model that could use real data to accurately predict wind and precipitation conditions at any location of interest on the globe at any user-determined time. The intern received guidance on software design, the C++ programming language and clear communication of project goals and ongoing progress. In addition, Mr. Cremisini was given license to structure the program however he best saw fit, an experience that will benefit ongoing research endeavors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Monitoring an Electro-Refining Process (Rev. 1)

In this report we examine measurements from two different sensors for detecting a diversion of plutonium in an electro-refining (ER) process. One method is based on counts from a high dose neutron detector (HDND). The other is based on spectra from a micro-calorimeter sensor. The spectra come from ER-salt, fission product waste, and from a source term. The goal is to differentiate between normal and off normal operating conditions using neutron counts or changes in counts in the spectra. Unfortunately, there is no electro-refining process that we can actually monitor to obtain real data from various operating conditions so we will use simulated data to illustrate our approach.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Building and Running TDAAPS Models: WRF Predictions

This document serves to guide a researcher through the process of predicting atmospheric conditions in a region of interest utilizing the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. This documentation is specific to WRF and WRF Preprocessing System (WPS) version 3.8.1. WRF is an atmospheric prediction system designed for meteorological research and numerical atmospheric prediction. In WRF, simulations may be generated utilizing real data or idealized atmospheric conditions. Output from WRF serves as input into the Time-Domain Atmospheric Acoustic Propagation Suite (TDAAPS) which performs staggered-grid finite difference modeling of the acoustic velocity pressure system to produce Green's functions through these atmospheric models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Incorporation of a Dense Gas capability into the EPIcode Atmospheric Dispersion Model

The goal of this project was to design a dense gas phase modeling capability, that is verified and validated against real data, and implement it in the EPIcode Chemical Atmospheric Dispersion Model. EPIcode is an established, DOE owned, atmospheric dispersion model of chemical materials that is used for emergency planning and safety-basis dispersion modeling at DOE/NNSA facilities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Analyzing Black Hole X-Rays with Simulations

We generate synthetic X-ray spectra of black holes from large-scale 3D GRMHD simulations performed on HPC machines. Here are a sampling of model spectra, characterized by the parameters indicated in the diagram below. The dashed red lines show power law fits to the parts of the spectrum observed by the X-ray telescope NuSTAR. How well these model spectra compare to real data helps us to characterize the physical realism of the underlying simulation techniques.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Project Report: High Frequency Axion LDRD - A Multiport Approach to Thermal Noise and Scattering Parameter Simulation of Cryogenic Experiments

In this report, a simple algorithm for detailed system-level thermal noise analysis is developed, demonstrated, and verified. This method uses noise-wave theory and noise covariance matrices to cascade noise and scattering parameters of multiport devices at different temperatures. This method addresses the effects of return loss, multiport isolation/coupling, and static temperature differentials between components, and will work in cases where the noise temperature is at or near the quantum noise limit. An ideal multidevice network will first be demonstrated to show that this method’s results are consistent with the Friis cascade when component parameters such as return loss and isolation are ideal. Following the ideal multidevice example, a cryogenic experiment is conducted to demonstrate that the proposed simulation method is successful when real data are used.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Comparison of Supervised and Un-Supervised Machine Learning Algorithms for Threat Detection and Scintillator Performance for Radiation Portal Monitoring

Following the events of September 11, 2001, international border crossing have been equipped with radiation portal monitors (RPMs) to identify illicit radioactive material. Polyvinyl toluene (PVT) scintillators are commonly used due to their low cost and reasonable maintainability, however they offer low spectral resolution. Despite the fact that over twenty years has transpired since this event, radioisotopes are still typically identified by hand-crafted classification algorithms, e.g., total counts or energy windowing, and exhibit relatively poor performance in detecting threats at the low false alarm rates required to support the stream of commerce. While some improvement to performance has been realized via the use of supervised machine learning, these classification algorithms typically utilize simulations in lieu of real data due to the sparsity of data for one or more classes. Accordingly, the performance of these algorithms is somewhat less than optimal when examining experiments or simulations with model mismatch. Consequently, in this work, we examine the application of a number of unsupervised machine learning, anomaly detection based algorithms, to circumvent the inverse crime when analyzing spectroscopy data for RPMs. We also compare anomaly detection results with those obtained via the use of supervised classification detection ML algorithms when model mismatch is introduced between the simulated threat items utilized for training/testing. Finally, we compared the performance of the PVT scintillators to those obtained with higher resolution detectors using both anomaly detection and supervised classification algorithms.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Predictive Self-Healing Seals for Gas Transmission

Damaged elastomeric diaphragms within pneumatic controllers used in the oil and gas industry lead to an unintended release of methane. Self-healing microvascular materials capable of healing various types of damage have been fabricated. These microvascular materials are designed to replace currently available commercial diaphragms found in pneumatic controllers and provide a solution to reduce unintended methane leaks. This project demonstrated the ability of these materials to reduce methane release by more than 80% in lab and pilot settings. Additionally, ML approaches successfully identified leaking systems based on training using synthetic and real data.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Laser calibration system and lost muons correction in the g-2 experiment

The Muon g-2 experiment at Fermilab has the main goal to measure the muon anomalous magnetic moment $a_{µ}$ = ($g$ − 2)/2 to a precision of 0.14 parts per million (ppm), which means 4 times improvement in precision with respect to the final result from BNL: $a_{µ}$ (expt. BNL) = 11659208.0(6.3) × 10$^{−10}$ (0.54 ppm) In this report I summarize the work done at the $g$-2 experiment during my summer internship at Fermilab. In the first two weeks my first task has been to replace the NIM logic used in the Laser Calibration System with a new FPGA. Then, I was involved in the Lost Muons analysis studying both real data and MonteCarlo simulations.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗