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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1986

Calibrating an altimeter - How many tide gauges is enough?

The dominant contributor to the random error of an altimetric satellite system is the long wavelength uncertainty in the orbital radius. It is shown that calibration by a comparatively modest tide gauge system can drastically reduce the overall error in global estimates of large-scale oceanic variability. The procedure used is a form of optimal estimation. Absolute (time average) altimetric calibration is much more difficult because it requires absolute calibration of the tide gauge positions (in three dimensions) but the error reduction process would be the same.

Wunsch, Carl↗
NASA NTRS1988

Initial blood storage experiment

The design of the Initial Blood Storage Experiment (IBSE) was based upon a carefully controlled comparison between identical sets of human blood cell suspensions - red cells, white cell, and platelets - one set of which was transported aboard the Columbia on a 6 day 11 hour mission, and the other held on the ground. Both sets were carried inside stainless steel dewars within specially fabricated flight hardware. Individual bags of cell suspensions were randomly assigned with respect to ground vs orbit status, dewar chamber, and specific location within the dewar. To foster optimal preservation, each cell type was held under specific optimal conditions of pH, ionic strength, solute concentration, gas tension, and temperature. An added variable in this initial experiment was provided by the use of three different polymer/plasticizer formulations for the sealed bags which held the blood cells. At termination of the experiment, aliquots of the suspensions, identified only by code, were distributed to be assayed. Assays were selected to constitute a broad survey of cellular properties and thereby maximize the chances of detection of gravitational effects. A total of 74 different outcome measurements were reported for statistical analysis. When the measurements were completed, the results were entered into the IBSE data base, at which time the data were matched with the original blood bag numbers to determine their status with respect to polymer/plasticizer type, orbit status (orbit or ground), and storage position within the experimental hardware. The data were studied by analysis of variance. Initially, type of bag and orbital status were main factors; later more detailed analyses were made on specific issues such as position in the hardware and specific plastic. If the analysis of variance indicated a statistical significance at the 5 percent level the corresponding p-value was reported.

Surgenor, Douglas MACN.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Why Is Rainfall Error Analysis Requisite for Data Assimilation and Climate Modeling?

Given the large temporal and spatial variability of precipitation processes, errors in rainfall observations are difficult to quantify yet crucial to making effective use of rainfall data for improving atmospheric analysis, weather forecasting, and climate modeling. We highlight the need for developing a quantitative understanding of systematic and random errors in precipitation observations by examining explicit examples of how each type of errors can affect forecasts and analyses in global data assimilation. We characterize the error information needed from the precipitation measurement community and how it may be used to improve data usage within the general framework of analysis techniques, as well as accuracy requirements from the perspective of climate modeling and global data assimilation.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗
NASA NTRS1973

The Development of a Stochastic Model of the Atmosphere Between 30 and 90 Km to Be Used in Determining the Effect of Atmospheric Variability on Space Shuttle Entry Parameters

A stochasitc model of the atmosphere between 30 and 90 km was developed for use in Monte Carlo space shuttle entry studies. The model is actually a family of models, one for each latitude-season category as defined in the 1966 U.S. Standard Atmosphere Supplements. Each latitude-season model generates a pseudo-random temperature profile whose mean is the appropriate temperature profile from the Standard Atmosphere Supplements. The standard deviation of temperature at each altitude for a given latitude-season model was estimated from sounding-rocket data. Departures from the mean temperature at each altitude were produced by assuming a linear regression of temperature on the solar heating rate of ozone. A profile of random ozone concentrations was first generated using an auxiliary stochastic ozone model, also developed as part of this study, and then solar heating rates were computed for the random ozone concentrations.

Campbell, J. W.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Random vibration of compliant wall

The paper is concerned with the realistic case of two-dimensional random motion of a membrane with bending stiffness supported on a viscoelastic spring substrate and on an elastic base plate under both subsonic and supersonic boundary layer turbulence. The cross-power spectral density of surface displacements is solved in terms of design variables of the compliant wall - such as the dimensions and material properties of the membrane (Mylar), substrate (PVC foam), and panel (aluminum) - so that a sensitivity analysis can be made to examine the influence of each design variable on the surface response statistics. Three numerical examples typical of compliant wall design are worked out and their response statistics in relation to wave drag and roughness drag are assessed. The results can serve as a guideline for experimental investigation of the drag reduction concept through the use of a compliant wall.

Yang, J.-N.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Chemistry-Transport Modeling of the Satellite Observed Distribution of Tropical Tropospheric Ozone

We have compared the 14-year record of satellite derived tropical tropospheric ozone columns (TTOC) from the NIMBUS-7 Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) to TTOC calculated by a chemistry-transport model (CTM). An objective measure of error, based on the zonal distribution of TTOC in the tropics, is applied to perform this comparison systematically. In addition, the sensitivity of the model to several key processes in the tropics is quantified to select directions for future improvements. The comparisons indicate a widespread, systematic (20%) discrepancy over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, which maximizes during austral Spring. Although independent evidence from ozonesondes shows that some of the disagreement is due to satellite over-estimate of TTOC, the Atlantic mismatch is largely due to a misrepresentation of seasonally recurring processes in the model. Only minor differences between the model and observations over the Pacific occur, mostly due to interannual variability not captured by the model. Although chemical processes determine the TTOC extent, dynamical processes dominate the TTOC distribution, as the use of actual meteorology pertaining to the year of observations always leads to a better agreement with TTOC observations than using a random year or a climatology. The modeled TTOC is remarkably insensitive to many model parameters due to efficient feedbacks in the ozone budget. Nevertheless, the simulations would profit from an improved biomass burning calendar, as well as from an increase in NOX abundances in free tropospheric biomass burning plumes. The model showed the largest response to lightning NOX emissions, but systematic improvements could not be found. The use of multi-year satellite derived tropospheric data to systematically test and improve a CTM is a promising new addition to existing methods of model validation, and is a first step to integrating tropospheric satellite observations into global ozone modeling studies. Conversely,the CTM may suggest improvements to evolving satellite retrievals for tropospheric ozone.

Peters, Wouter↗
NASA NTRS1972

Adaptive stochastic control for a class of linear systems.

The problem considered in this paper deals with the control of linear discrete-time stochastic systems with unknown (possibly time-varying and random) gain parameters. The philosophy of control is based on the use of an open-loop feedback optimal (OLFO) control using a quadratic index of performance. It is shown that the OLFO system consists of (1) an identifier that estimates the system state variables and gain parameters and (2) a controller described by an 'adaptive' gain and correction term. Several qualitative properties and asymptotic properties of the OLFO adaptive system are discussed. Simulation results dealing with the control of stable and unstable third-order plants are presented. The key quantitative result is the precise variation of the control system adaptive gains as a function of the future expected uncertainty of the parameters; thus, in this problem the ordinary 'separation theorem' does not hold.

Tse, E.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Improving Search Algorithms by Using Intelligent Coordinates

We consider algorithms that maximize a global function G in a distributed manner, using a different adaptive computational agent to set each variable of the underlying space. Each agent eta is self-interested; it sets its variable to maximize its own function g (sub eta). Three factors govern such a distributed algorithm's performance, related to exploration/exploitation, game theory, and machine learning. We demonstrate how to exploit alI three factors by modifying a search algorithm's exploration stage: rather than random exploration, each coordinate of the search space is now controlled by a separate machine-learning-based player engaged in a noncooperative game. Experiments demonstrate that this modification improves simulated annealing (SA) by up to an order of magnitude for bin packing and for a model of an economic process run over an underlying network. These experiments also reveal interesting small-world phenomena.

Wolpert, David H.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Discrete Gust Model for Launch Vehicle Assessments

Analysis of spacecraft vehicle responses to atmospheric wind gusts during flight is important in the establishment of vehicle design structural requirements and operational capability. Typically, wind gust models can be either a spectral type determined by a random process having a wide range of wavelengths, or a discrete type having a single gust of predetermined magnitude and shape. Classical discrete models used by NASA during the Apollo and Space Shuttle Programs included a 9 m/sec quasi-square-wave gust with variable wavelength from 60 to 300 m. A later study derived discrete gust from a military specification (MIL-SPEC) document that used a "1-cosine" shape. The MIL-SPEC document contains a curve of non-dimensional gust magnitude as a function of non-dimensional gust half-wavelength based on the Dryden spectral model, but fails to list the equation necessary to reproduce the curve. Therefore, previous studies could only estimate a value of gust magnitude from the curve, or attempt to fit a function to it. This paper presents the development of the MIL-SPEC curve, and provides the necessary information to calculate discrete gust magnitudes as a function of both gust half-wavelength and the desired probability level of exceeding a specified gust magnitude.

Leahy, Frank B.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Zoledronate Prevents Simulated Weightlessness-Induced Bone Loss in the Cancellous Compartment While Blunting the Efficacy of a Mechanical Loading Countermeasure

Astronauts using high-force resistance training while weightless show a high-turnover remodeling state within the skeletal system, with resorption and formation biomarkers being elevated. One countermeasure for the skeletal health of astronauts includes an antiresorptive of the bisphosphonate (BP) drug class. We asked, does the combination of an anti-resorptive and high-force exercise during weightlessness have negative effects on bone remodeling and strength? In this study, we developed an integrated model to mimic the mechanical strain of exercise via cyclical loading (CL) in mice treated with the BP Zoledronate (ZOL) combined with hind limb unloading (HU) to simulate weightlessness. We hypothesized that ZOL prevents structural degradation from simulated weightlessness and that CL and ZOL interact to render CL less effective. Thirty-two C57BL/6 mice (male, 16 weeks old, n=8/group) were exposed to 3 weeks of either HU or normal ambulation (NA). Cohorts of mice received one subcutaneous injection of ZOL (45μg/kg), or saline vehicle (VEH), prior to the start of HU. The right tibia was axially compressed in vivo 60x/day to 9N (+1200μstrain on the periosteal surface) and repeated 3x/week during HU. Left tibiae served as a within subject, non-compressed control. Ex vivo μCT was performed on all subjects to determine cancellous and cortical architectural parameters. Static and dynamic histomorphometry were carried out for the left and right tibiae to determine osteoclast- and osteoblast relevant surfaces. Further, micro damage was assessed in select groups by basic-fuchsin staining to test whether CL had an effect. For all assays, a multivariate (2x2x2) ANCOVA model was used to account for body weight changes. Additionally, for the tibiae, we incorporated a random effect for the subject (hence, a mixed model) to account for observations of both left and right tibiae within each subject. P < 0.05 was considered significant. In the cancellous compartment of the proximal tibial metaphysis, we observed a main effect from each independent variable, as determined by structural and histomorphometric assays. Specifically, as expected, ZOL showed an increase in the cancellous bone volume to total volume fraction (BV/TV, +32%) and trabecular number (+18%) compared to the VEH. As expected, ZOL decreased osteoclast surface (OC/BS) by -45% compared to VEH. Surprisingly, ZOL reduced mineralizing surface (MS/BS) and bone formation rate (BFR), indicators of osteoblast activity, by -40% and -54%, respectively, compared to VEH. Altogether, ZOL-treated mice displayed a low turnover state of remodeling in the metaphysis. In the context of skeletal aging, we speculate that ZOL prevented age-related cancellous strut loss during the experiment. As a main effect, as expected, HU decreased BV/TV by - 31% via reductions in both trabecular thickness (-11%) and number (-22%) compared to NA controls. Additionally, HU decreased MS/BS by -38% and bone formation rate (BFR) by -50% compared to NA controls. Altogether, these data are consistent with structural degradation resulting from imbalanced remodeling that favors resorption. As a main effect, CL increased BV/TV by +15% via increased trabecular thickness (+12%) compared to the noncompressed limb. As expected, CL increased MS/BS (+20%) and BFR (+24%), indicating osteoblast mineralization contributed to bone gains. These data show that CL provided an anabolic stimulus to the cancellous tissue. We observed unique interactions in ZOL*CL and HU*CL. First, ZOL prevented CL-induced increases in BV/TV and trabecular number, as compared to VEH. In the context of skeletal aging, these data suggest no added benefit from CL in the ZOL-treated mice. Interestingly, no microdamage was observed in mice that were unloaded and treated with ZOL (independent of CL). Secondly, HU prevented CL-induced increases in BFR, as compared to NA controls. These data suggest that either exercise is less effective or the kinetics of formation are slower during simulated weightlessness. Osteoclast surface was unchanged by either treatment. Thus, in contrast to exercising astronauts, these data do not suggest a high-turnover state in the metaphysis. To assess mechanical properties as a function of HU or ZOL, we tested the left femur in three-point bending ex vivo. As expected, HU decreased stiffness (-30%) compared to NA, and ZOL increased stiffness compared to VEH (+28%). Interestingly, HU increased the post-yield displacement, related to collagenous tensile loading, compared to NA (+20%). ZOL increased yield force (+11%) and ultimate force (+17%), which seems to explain the significant effect of ZOL increasing total energy (work-to-fracture, +15%), while not affecting the post yield displacement. Taken together, ZOL did not have detrimental affect on mechanical properties. Our integrated model simulates the combination of weightlessness, exercise-induced mechanical strain, and anti-resorptive treatment that astronauts experience during space missions. We conclude that Zoledronate was an effective countermeasure against weightlessness-induced bone loss, though zoledronate, as well as weightlessness, rendered exercise-related mechanical loading less effective.

bone↗
NASA NTRS1982

Rainfall results of the Florida Area Cumulus Experiment, 1970-76

The Florida Area Cumulus Experiment of 1970-76 (FACE-1) is a single-area, randomized, exploratory experiment to determine whether seeding cumuli for dynamic effects (dynamic seeding) can be used to augment convective rainfall over a substantial target area in south Florida. Rainfall is estimated using S-band radar observations after adjustment by raingages. The two primary response variables are rain volumes in the total target (TT) and in the floating target (FT), the most intensely treated portion of the target. The experimental unit is the day and the main observational period is the 6 h after initiation of treatment. Analyses without predictors suggest apparent increases in both the location and the dispersion characteristics of rainfall due to seeding in the FT and TT variables with substantial statistical support for the FT results and lesser statistical support for the TT results. Analyses of covariance using meteorologically meaningful predictor variables suggest a somewhat larger effect of seeding with stronger statistical support. These results are interpreted in terms of the FACE conceptual model.

Woodley, W. L.↗
NASA NTRS1983

A structure function representation theorem with applications to frequency stability estimation

Random processes with stationary nth differences serve as models for oscillator phase noise. The theorem proved here allows one to obtain the structure function (covariances of the nth differences) of such a process in terms of the differences of a single function of one time variable. In turn, this function can easily be obtained from the spectral density of the process. The theorem is used for computing the variance of two estimators of frequency stability.

Greenhall, C. A.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Non-WKB Alfven waves in the solar wind: Propagation and reflection of pulses

The non-WKB propagation of Alfven waves has been studied either for harmonic waves, or in terms of the evolution of power spectra. Here we present analytical and numerical solutions for the propagation of pulses, the goal being to understand how waves reflect in a smoothly varying medium. We here limit our discussion to a radial magnetic field. If we launch an outward-propagating delta function, it leaves behind an inward-propagaing signal which is roughly a square wave whose amplitude is proportional to the area under the initial pulse. The inward-propagating signal also reflects, producing an outward propagating pulse which is roughly triangular in shape and which grows with time. These signals also oscillate if v is less than v(A), but they grow if v is greater than v(A). The result reported by us earlier, that the 'ingoing Elsasser variable' can have outgoing phase, is now understood to be a consequence of interference. The inward-propagating signal depends to lowest order on the integral of the outgoing waves which have preceded it. Thus the ingoing signal can be expected to develop as a random walk. This will affect the radial evolution of cross-helicity in the solar wind.

Hollweg, J. V.↗
NASA NTRS2021

X-ray Spectra and Multiwavelength Machine Learning Classification for Likely Counterparts toFermi3FGL Unassociated Sources

We conduct X-ray spectral fits on 184 likely counterparts to Fermi-LAT 3FGL unassociated sources. Characterization and classification of these sources allows for more complete population studies of the high-energy sky. Most of these X-ray spectra are well fit by an absorbed power law model, as expected for a population dominated by blazars and pulsars. A small subset of 7 X-ray sources ave spectra unlike the power law expected from a blazar or pulsar and may be linked to coincident stars or background emission. We develop a multiwavelength machine learning classifier to categorize unassociated sources into pulsars and blazars using gamma- and X-ray observations. Training a random forest procedure with known pulsars and blazars, we achieve a cross-validated classification accuracy of 98.6%. Applying the random forest routine to the unassociated sources returned 126 likely blazar candidates (defined as P(bzr) ≥ 90%) and 5 likely pulsar candidates (P(bzr) ≤ 10%). Our new X-ray spectral analysis does not drastically alter the random forest classifications of these sources compared to previous works, but it builds a more robust classification scheme and highlights the importance of X-ray spectral fitting. Our procedure can be further expanded with UV, visual, or radio spectral parameters or by measuring flux variability.

Stephen Kerby↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Machine Learning Emulators and Empirical Models Combining Climate and Global Crop Models for Seasonal Agricultural Production

We present results from several connected efforts to apply machine learning methods to estimates of seasonal agricultural production anomalies around the world. First, we apply the XGBoost Random Forest method to fit emulators that mimic global crop models participating in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI). These are the same models used in the agricultural sector simulations of the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP). These emulators use 8 climate variables split across 5 sub-seasonal representations of the growing season for each ½ degree grid cell around the world for maize, wheat, rice and soybeans. Emulators are useful for estimating conditions that have not already been simulated by GGCMI (e.g., in a seasonal prediction model) and also to diagnose model differences and capabilities. For example, emulators of the pDSSAT maize model tend to be more reliant on mean temperatures than the LPJmL model, and few models have strong responses to cold extremes. Second, we use a similar XGBoost approach to fit empirical models for national production data for the top 20 producing countries according to the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). Models utilize both climate observations and the GGCM models as predictors, resulting in skillful models for many (but not all) top producing-countries. The patterns of climate and crop model features selected indicate regions and systems that are better or worse simulated by the GGCMs. For example, information in cold extreme predictors is often combined with GGCM output predictors to provide sensitivity that models may underrepresent.

machine learning↗
NASA NTRS1986

Mapping permafrost in the boreal forest with Thematic Mapper satellite data

A geographic data base incorporating Landsat TM data was used to develop and evaluate logistic discriminant functions for predicting the distribution of permafrost in a boreal forest watershed. The data base included both satellite-derived information and ancillary map data. Five permafrost classifications were developed from a stratified random sample of the data base and evaluated by comparison with a photo-interpreted permafrost map using contingency table analysis and soil temperatures recorded at sites within the watershed. A classification using a TM thermal band and a TM-derived vegetation map as independent variables yielded the highest mapping accuracy for all permafrost categories.

Morrissey, L. A.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Multiple Access Trade Study

The Personal Access Satellite System (PASS) strawman design uses a hybrid Time Division Multiple Access (TDMA)/Frequency Division Multiple Access (FDMA) implementation. TDMA is used for the forward direction (from Suppliers to Users), and FDMA for the return direction (from Users to Suppliers). An alternative architecture is proposed that will require minimal real time coordination and yet provide a fast access method by using random access Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA). The CDMA system issues are addressed such as connecting suppliers and users, both of whom may be located anywhere in the CONUS, when the user terminals are constrained in size and weight; and providing efficient traffic routing under highly variable traffic requirements. It is assumed that bandwidth efficiency is not of paramount importance. CDMA or Spread Spectrum Multiple Access (SSMA) communication is a method in which a group of carriers operate at the same nominal center frequency but are separable from each other by the low cross correlation of the spreading codes used. Interference and multipath rejection capability, ease of selective addressing and message screening, low density power spectra for signal hiding and security, and high resolution ranging are among the benefits of spread spectrum communications.

Motamedi, Masoud↗
NASA NTRS2013

Comparison of Precision of Biomass Estimates in Regional Field Sample Surveys and Airborne LiDAR-Assisted Surveys in Hedmark County, Norway

Airborne scanning LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) has emerged as a promising tool to provide auxiliary data for sample surveys aiming at estimation of above-ground tree biomass (AGB), with potential applications in REDD forest monitoring. For larger geographical regions such as counties, states or nations, it is not feasible to collect airborne LiDAR data continuously ("wall-to-wall") over the entire area of interest. Two-stage cluster survey designs have therefore been demonstrated by which LiDAR data are collected along selected individual flight-lines treated as clusters and with ground plots sampled along these LiDAR swaths. Recently, analytical AGB estimators and associated variance estimators that quantify the sampling variability have been proposed. Empirical studies employing these estimators have shown a seemingly equal or even larger uncertainty of the AGB estimates obtained with extensive use of LiDAR data to support the estimation as compared to pure field-based estimates employing estimators appropriate under simple random sampling (SRS). However, comparison of uncertainty estimates under SRS and sophisticated two-stage designs is complicated by large differences in the designs and assumptions. In this study, probability-based principles to estimation and inference were followed. We assumed designs of a field sample and a LiDAR-assisted survey of Hedmark County (HC) (27,390 km2), Norway, considered to be more comparable than those assumed in previous studies. The field sample consisted of 659 systematically distributed National Forest Inventory (NFI) plots and the airborne scanning LiDAR data were collected along 53 parallel flight-lines flown over the NFI plots. We compared AGB estimates based on the field survey only assuming SRS against corresponding estimates assuming two-phase (double) sampling with LiDAR and employing model-assisted estimators. We also compared AGB estimates based on the field survey only assuming two-stage sampling (the NFI plots being grouped in clusters) against corresponding estimates assuming two-stage sampling with the LiDAR and employing model-assisted estimators. For each of the two comparisons, the standard errors of the AGB estimates were consistently lower for the LiDAR-assisted designs. The overall reduction of the standard errors in the LiDAR-assisted estimation was around 40-60% compared to the pure field survey. We conclude that the previously proposed two-stage model-assisted estimators are inappropriate for surveys with unequal lengths of the LiDAR flight-lines and new estimators are needed. Some options for design of LiDAR-assisted sample surveys under REDD are also discussed, which capitalize on the flexibility offered when the field survey is designed as an integrated part of the overall survey design as opposed to previous LiDAR-assisted sample surveys in the boreal and temperate zones which have been restricted by the current design of an existing NFI.

Comparison↗