Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Random forests”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 667 records · Page 37
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Machine Learning Models for Mapping Groundwater Pollution Risk: Advancing Water Security and Sustainable Development Goals in Georgia, USA

The widespread use of pesticides, such as atrazine and malathion, in agricultural systems raises significant concerns regarding the contamination of groundwater, which serves as a critical resource for drinking water. This study applies machine learning techniques to predict the concentrations of atrazine and malathion in groundwater across Georgia, USA, using 2019 data. A Random Forest classifier was employed to integrate various environmental and demographic factors, including pesticide application rates, precipitation, lithology, and population density, to predict pesticide contamination in groundwater. The models demonstrated high training accuracies of 100% and moderate average testing accuracy of 55% for atrazine and 60% for malathion across five iterations. The low test accuracy of the model, ranging from 50% to 75%, is likely due to overfitting, which can be attributed to the small dataset size and the complex nature of pesticide-contamination patterns, making it challenging for the model to generalize to unseen data. Feature importance analysis revealed that average pesticide usage emerged as the most influential factor for atrazine, while aquifer lithology and precipitation played crucial roles in both models. These results provide valuable insights into the dynamics of pesticide contamination, highlighting areas at greater risk of contamination. The findings underscore the importance of integrating environmental, geological, and agricultural variables for more effective groundwater management and sustainable agricultural practices, contributing to the protection of water resources and public health.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Objective Phenotyping of Root System Architecture Using Image Augmentation and Machine Learning in Alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.)

Active breeding programs specifically for root system architecture (RSA) phenotypes remain rare; however, breeding for branch and taproot types in the perennial crop alfalfa is ongoing. Phenotyping in this and other crops for active RSA breeding has mostly used visual scoring of specific traits or subjective classification into different root types. While image-based methods have been developed, translation to applied breeding is limited. This research is aimed at developing and comparing image-based RSA phenotyping methods using machine and deep learning algorithms for objective classification of 617 root images from mature alfalfa plants collected from the field to support the ongoing breeding efforts. Our results show that unsupervised machine learning tends to incorrectly classify roots into a normal distribution with most lines predicted as the intermediate root type. Encouragingly, random forest and TensorFlow-based neural networks can classify the root types into branch-type, taproot-type, and an intermediate taproot-branch type with 86% accuracy. With image augmentation, the prediction accuracy was improved to 97%. Coupling the predicted root type with its prediction probability will give breeders a confidence level for better decisions to advance the best and exclude the worst lines from their breeding program. This machine and deep learning approach enables accurate classification of the RSA phenotypes for genomic breeding of climate-resilient alfalfa.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Information Content of JWST NIRSpec Transmission Spectra of Warm Neptunes

Warm Neptunes offer a rich opportunity for understanding exo-atmospheric chemistry. With the upcoming James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), there is a need to elucidate the balance between investments in telescope time versus scientific yield. We use the supervised machine-learning method of the random forest to perform an information content (IC) analysis on a 11-parameter model of transmission spectra from the various NIRSpec modes. The three bluest medium-resolution NIRSpec modes (0.7–1.27 μm, 0.97–1.84 μm, 1.66–3.07 μm) are insensitive to the presence of CO. The reddest medium-resolution mode (2.87–5.10 μm) is sensitive to all of the molecules assumed in our model: CO, CO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4}, C{sub 2}H{sub 2}, H{sub 2}O, HCN, and NH{sub 3}. It competes effectively with the three bluest modes on the information encoded on cloud abundance and particle size. It is also competitive with the low-resolution prism mode (0.6–5.3 μm) on the inference of every parameter except for the temperature and ammonia abundance. We recommend astronomers to use the reddest medium-resolution NIRSpec mode for studying the atmospheric chemistry of 800–1200 K warm Neptunes; its corresponding high-resolution counterpart offers diminishing returns. We compare our findings to previous JWST IC analyses that favor the blue orders and suggest that the reliance on chemical equilibrium could lead to biased outcomes if this assumption does not apply. A simple, pressure-independent diagnostic for identifying chemical disequilibrium is proposed based on measuring the abundances of H{sub 2}O, CO, and CO{sub 2}.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Novel Machine Learning Approach to Disentangle Multitemperature Regions in Galaxy Clusters

The hot intracluster medium (ICM) surrounding the heart of galaxy clusters is a complex medium that comprises various emitting components. Although previous studies of nearby galaxy clusters, such as the Perseus, the Coma, or the Virgo cluster, have demonstrated the need for multiple thermal components when spectroscopically fitting the ICM’s X-ray emission, no systematic methodology for calculating the number of underlying components currently exists. In turn, underestimating or overestimating the number of components can cause systematic errors in the emission parameter estimations. In this paper, we present a novel approach to determining the number of components using an amalgam of machine learning techniques. Synthetic spectra containing a various number of underlying thermal components were created using well-established tools available from the Chandra X-ray Observatory. The dimensions of the training set was initially reduced using principal component analysis and then categorized based on the number of underlying components using a random forest classifier. Our trained and tested algorithm was subsequently applied to Chandra X-ray observations of the Perseus cluster. Our results demonstrate that machine learning techniques can efficiently and reliably estimate the number of underlying thermal components in the spectra of galaxy clusters, regardless of the thermal model (MEKAL versus APEC). We also confirm that the core of the Perseus cluster contains a mix of differing underlying thermal components. We emphasize that although this methodology was trained and applied on Chandra X-ray observations, it is readily portable to other current (e.g., XMM-Newton, eROSITA) and upcoming (e.g., Athena, Lynx, XRISM) X-ray telescopes. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/XtraAstronomy/Pumpkin.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

X-Ray Spectra and Multiwavelength Machine Learning Classification for Likely Counterparts to Fermi 3FGL Unassociated Sources

We conduct X-ray spectral fits on 184 likely counterparts to Fermi-LAT 3FGL unassociated sources. Characterization and classification of these sources allows for more complete population studies of the high-energy sky. Most of these X-ray spectra are well fit by an absorbed power-law model, as expected for a population dominated by blazars and pulsars. A small subset of seven X-ray sources have spectra unlike the power law expected from a blazar or pulsar and may be linked to coincident stars or background emission. We develop a multiwavelength machine learning classifier to categorize unassociated sources into pulsars and blazars using gamma-ray and X-ray observations. Training a random forest (RF) procedure with known pulsars and blazars, we achieve a cross-validated classification accuracy of 98.6%. Applying the RF routine to the unassociated sources returned 126 likely blazar candidates (defined as P {sub bzr} ≥ 90%) and five likely pulsar candidates (P {sub bzr} ≤ 10%). Our new X-ray spectral analysis does not drastically alter the RF classifications of these sources compared to previous works, but it builds a more robust classification scheme and highlights the importance of X-ray spectral fitting. Our procedure can be further expanded with UV, visual, or radio spectral parameters or by measuring flux variability.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Measuring Young Stars in Space and Time. II. The Pre-main-sequence Stellar Content of N44

The Hubble Space Telescope survey Measuring Young Stars in Space and Time (MYSST) entails some of the deepest photometric observations of extragalactic star formation, capturing even the lowest-mass stars of the active star-forming complex N44 in the Large Magellanic Cloud. We employ the new MYSST stellar catalog to identify and characterize the content of young pre-main-sequence (PMS) stars across N44 and analyze the PMS clustering structure. To distinguish PMS stars from more evolved line of sight contaminants, a non-trivial task due to several effects that alter photometry, we utilize a machine-learning classification approach. This consists of training a support vector machine (SVM) and a random forest (RF) on a carefully selected subset of the MYSST data and categorize all observed stars as PMS or non-PMS. Combining SVM and RF predictions to retrieve the most robust set of PMS sources, we find ∼26,700 candidates with a PMS probability above 95% across N44. Employing a clustering approach based on a nearest neighbor surface density estimate, we identify 16 prominent PMS structures at 1σ significance above the mean density with sub-clusters persisting up to and beyond 3σ significance. The most active star-forming center, located at the western edge of N44's bubble, is a subcluster with an effective radius of ∼5.6 pc entailing more than 1100 PMS candidates. Furthermore, we confirm that almost all identified clusters coincide with known H ii regions and are close to or harbor massive young O stars or YSOs previously discovered by MUSE and Spitzer observations.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Highly Efficient Selection of High-redshift Emission-line Galaxies for Future DESI-like Surveys with Deep Multiband Imaging

Emission-line galaxies (ELGs) are an important tracer of baryon acoustic oscillations (BAOs) and large-scale structure at z > 1. In this work, we investigate the feasibility of using deep wide-area multiband imaging (e.g., from the Rubin Observatory) to efficiently select high-redshift ELGs. Using Hyper Suprime-Cam grizy photometry and COSMOS2020 many-band photometric redshifts, we design simple color cuts guided by a probabilistic random forest classifier to select galaxies at z = 1.1–1.6. We then empirically test and refine these color cuts using two samples of galaxies with deep spectroscopy and broad color coverage obtained with the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). Compared to DESI ELGs at z = 1.1–1.6, we achieve a higher redshift-measurement success rate (89% versus 69%), a much higher correct redshift-range success rate (84% versus 34%), and a far higher net surface density yield (1372 deg −2 versus 660 deg −2 ). Combining our sample with current DESI ELGs would increase the net ELG number density by a factor of ∼2.5, moving it out of the shot-noise limited regime and reducing the uncertainties on the BAO scale parameter at z = 1.1–1.6 by a factor of ∼2 at the highest redshifts. We also test selections using shallower photometry and obtain qualitatively similar results.

Salcedo Hernandez, Yoquelbin [University of Pittsb↗
DOE OSTI2021

The HST See Change Program. I. Survey Design, Pipeline, and Supernova Discoveries*

The See Change survey was designed to make z > 1 cosmological measurements by efficiently discovering high-redshift Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) and improving cluster mass measurements through weak lensing. This survey observed twelve galaxy clusters with the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) spanning the redshift range z = 1.13–1.75, discovering 57 likely transients and 27 likely SNe Ia at z ~ 0.8–2.3. As in similar previous surveys, this proved to be a highly efficient use of HST for supernova observations; the See Change survey additionally tested the feasibility of maintaining, or further increasing, the efficiency at yet higher redshifts, where we have less detailed information on the expected cluster masses and star formation rates. Furthermore, we find that the resulting number of SNe Ia per orbit is a factor of ~8 higher than for a field search, and 45% of our orbits contained an active SN Ia within 22 rest-frame days of peak, with one of the clusters by itself yielding 6 of the SNe Ia. We present the survey design, pipeline, and supernova discoveries. Novel features include fully blinded supernova searches, the first random forest candidate classifier for undersampled IR data (with a 50% detection threshold within 0.05 mag of human searchers), real-time forward-modeling photometry of candidates, and semi-automated photometric classifications and follow-up forecasts. We also describe the spectroscopic follow-up, instrumental in measuring host galaxy redshifts. The cosmology analysis of our sample will be presented in a companion paper.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

The LSST AGN Data Challenge: Selection Methods

Abstract Development of the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) includes a series of Data Challenges (DCs) arranged by various LSST Scientific Collaborations that are taking place during the project's preoperational phase. The AGN Science Collaboration Data Challenge (AGNSC-DC) is a partial prototype of the expected LSST data on active galactic nuclei (AGNs), aimed at validating machine learning approaches for AGN selection and characterization in large surveys like LSST. The AGNSC-DC took place in 2021, focusing on accuracy, robustness, and scalability. The training and the blinded data sets were constructed to mimic the future LSST release catalogs using the data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Stripe 82 region and the XMM-Newton Large Scale Structure Survey region. Data features were divided into astrometry, photometry, color, morphology, redshift, and class label with the addition of variability features and images. We present the results of four submitted solutions to DCs using both classical and machine learning methods. We systematically test the performance of supervised models (support vector machine, random forest, extreme gradient boosting, artificial neural network, convolutional neural network) and unsupervised ones (deep embedding clustering) when applied to the problem of classifying/clustering sources as stars, galaxies, or AGNs. We obtained classification accuracy of 97.5% for supervised models and clustering accuracy of 96.0% for unsupervised ones and 95.0% with a classic approach for a blinded data set. We find that variability features significantly improve the accuracy of the trained models, and correlation analysis among different bands enables a fast and inexpensive first-order selection of quasar candidates.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Anomaly Detection and Approximate Similarity Searches of Transients in Real-time Data Streams

Abstract We present Lightcurve Anomaly Identification and Similarity Search ( LAISS ), an automated pipeline to detect anomalous astrophysical transients in real-time data streams. We deploy our anomaly detection model on the nightly Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) Alert Stream via the ANTARES broker, identifying a manageable ∼1–5 candidates per night for expert vetting and coordinating follow-up observations. Our method leverages statistical light-curve and contextual host galaxy features within a random forest classifier, tagging transients of rare classes ( spectroscopic anomalies), of uncommon host galaxy environments ( contextual anomalies), and of peculiar or interaction-powered phenomena ( behavioral anomalies). Moreover, we demonstrate the power of a low-latency (∼ms) approximate similarity search method to find transient analogs with similar light-curve evolution and host galaxy environments. We use analogs for data-driven discovery, characterization, (re)classification, and imputation in retrospective and real-time searches. To date, we have identified ∼50 previously known and previously missed rare transients from real-time and retrospective searches, including but not limited to superluminous supernovae (SLSNe), tidal disruption events, SNe IIn, SNe IIb, SNe I-CSM, SNe Ia-91bg-like, SNe Ib, SNe Ic, SNe Ic-BL, and M31 novae. Lastly, we report the discovery of 325 total transients, all observed between 2018 and 2021 and absent from public catalogs (∼1% of all ZTF Astronomical Transient reports to the Transient Name Server through 2021). These methods enable a systematic approach to finding the “needle in the haystack” in large-volume data streams. Because of its integration with the ANTARES broker, LAISS is built to detect exciting transients in Rubin data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Telomere-to-telomere assemblies of chromosome 10 reveal complex adaptive variation of 3-ketoacyl-CoA-synthases in Populus trichocarpa likely driven by Helitrons

The model woody plant Populus trichocarpa displays an atypical alkene-diverse wax cuticle likely driven by copy number variation (CNV) of 3-ketoacyl-CoA synthases ( KCS ), which has been difficult to confirm with short-read assemblies. Long-read sequencing enables the development of telomere-to-telomere resources to detect cryptic variation, including CNVs, which are currently missed. Integrating this information can improve genomic prediction for breeding and provide insights into the evolutionary basis of important traits. Our analysis of 78 long-read haplotypes from chromosome 10 identified more than twice as many KCS genes as previously reported, and numerous intragenic non-synonymous substitutions. Random Forest predictive models highlighted the importance of Potri.010G079500 in producing very long chain alkenes; however, its absence did not predict previously reported alkene-deficient phenotypes. Instead, alkene levels are best predicted by the combinations of KCS copies. Additionally, amino acid substitutions clustered around ligand and donor binding pockets, suggesting they contribute to differing wax cuticle composition. Finally, each KCS gene and copy was linked to a Helitron transposon. A phylogenetic analysis suggests Helitrons are the evolutionary mechanism for generating KCS tandem arrays. Long-read generated telomere-to-telomere assemblies of P. trichocarpa chromosome 10 revealed large-effect loci critical to genetic studies that are unattainable from short-reads. This new resource produced novel insights into genome structure and function, and a novel mechanism for generating tandem gene duplication. Our results highlight that, given current challenges in annotation and assembly, detailed and focused long-read sequences are key to interpreting complex genomic regions that contain tandem copy number variants.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Graph-based featurization methods for classifying small molecule compounds

For over a decade, drug-induced liver injury (DILI) has posed significant drawbacks in the synthesis and development of drugs and remains a consequential concern. With finite success within the existing preclinical models, DILI is one of the main causes of drug withdrawal or termination from the market. Particularly, this withdrawal occurs during the late stages of drug development (Kullak-Ublick, 2017). Since DILI is difficult to diagnose and treat, it has become an obstacle in the drug production market that in turn affects clinicians, pharmaceutical companies, and consumers. We propose a method for learning features of DILI-positive drugs based on the graphical relationships and patterns they possess within a network of biological databases. We also train various statistical and machine learning models on these learned features in order to classify the drugs as DILI-positive or negative. Our methods include Random Forest, Neural networks, and logistic regression classification. We utilize labeled DILI-positive and DILI-negative datasets, which were developed by the FDA and the National center for toxicological research, as well as additional literature datasets (Thakkar, 2020) in order to validate our results and assess our featurization and model accuracy.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Using machine learning to derive cloud condensation nuclei number concentrations from commonly available measurements

Cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) number concentrations are an important aspect of aerosol–cloud interactions and the subsequent climate effects; however, their measurements are very limited. We use a machine learning tool, random decision forests, to develop a random forest regression model (RFRM) to derive CCN at 0.4 % supersaturation ([CCN0.4]) from commonly available measurements. The RFRM is trained on the long-term simulations in a global size-resolved particle microphysics model. Using atmospheric state and composition variables as predictors, through associations of their variabilities, the RFRM is able to learn the underlying dependence of [CCN0.4] on these predictors, which are as follows: eight fractions of PM 2.5 (NH 4 , SO 4 , NO 3, secondary organic aerosol (SOA), black carbon (BC), primary organic carbon (POC), dust, and salt), seven gaseous species (NO x , NH 3 , O 3 , SO 2 , OH, isoprene, and monoterpene), and four meteorological variables (temperature (T), relative humidity (RH), precipitation, and solar radiation). The RFRM is highly robust: it has a median mean fractional bias (MFB) of 4.4 % with ≈96.33 % of the derived [CCN0.4] within a good agreement range of -60% 2.5 speciation (NH 4 , SO 4 , NO 3 , and organic carbon (OC)), NO x , O 3 , SO 2 , T, and RH, as well as [CCN0.4] are available. We modify, optimize, and retrain the developed RFRM to make predictions from 19 to 9 of these available predictors. This retrained RFRM (RFRM-ShortVars) shows a reduction in performance due to the unavailability and sparsity of measurements (predictors); it captures the [CCN0.4] variability and magnitude at SGP with ≈67.02 % of the derived values in the good agreement range. This work shows the potential of using the more commonly available measurements of PM 2.5 speciation to alleviate the sparsity of CCN number concentrations' measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Technical note: Uncertainties in eddy covariance CO 2 fluxes in a semiarid sagebrush ecosystem caused by gap-filling approaches

Abstract. Gap-filling eddy covariance CO2 fluxes is challenging at dryland sites due to small CO2 fluxes. Here, four machine learning (ML) algorithms including artificial neural network (ANN), k-nearest neighbors (KNNs), random forest (RF), and support vector machine (SVM) are employed and evaluated for gap-filling CO2 fluxes over a semiarid sagebrush ecosystem with different lengths of artificial gaps. The ANN and RF algorithms outperform the KNN and SVM in filling gaps ranging from hours to days, with the RF being more time efficient than the ANN. Performances of the ANN and RF are largely degraded for extremely long gaps of 2 months. In addition, our results suggest that there is no need to fill the daytime and nighttime net ecosystem exchange (NEE) gaps separately when using the ANN and RF. With the ANN and RF, the gap-filling-induced uncertainties in the annual NEE at this site are estimated to be within 16 g C m−2, whereas the uncertainties by the KNN and SVM can be as large as 27 g C m−2. To better fill extremely long gaps of a few months, we test a two-layer gap-filling framework based on the RF. With this framework, the model performance is improved significantly, especially for the nighttime data. Therefore, this approach provides an alternative in filling extremely long gaps to characterize annual carbon budgets and interannual variability in dryland ecosystems.

Yao, Jingyu↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine-learning-based investigation of the variables affecting summertime lightning occurrence over the Southern Great Plains

Lightning is affected by many factors, many of which are not routinely measured, well understood, or accounted for in physical models. Several commonly used machine learning (ML) models have been applied to analyze the relationship between Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) data and lightning data from the Earth Networks Total Lightning Network (ENTLN) in order to identify important variables affecting lightning occurrence in the vicinity of the Southern Great Plains (SGP) ARM site during the summer months (June, July, August and September) of 2012 to 2020. Testing various ML models, we found that the random forest model is the best predictor among common classifiers. When convective clouds were detected, it predicts lightning occurrence with an accuracy of 76.9 % and an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.850. Using this model, we further ranked the variables in terms of their effectiveness in nowcasting lightning and identified geometric cloud thickness, rain rate and convective available potential energy (CAPE) as the most effective predictors. The contrast in meteorological variables between no-lightning and frequent-lightning periods was examined for hours with CAPE values conducive to thunderstorm formation. Besides the variables considered for the ML models, surface variables and mid-altitude variables (e.g., equivalent potential temperature and minimum equivalent potential temperature, respectively) have statistically significant contrasts between no-lightning and frequent-lightning hours. For example, the minimum equivalent potential temperature from 700 to 500 hPa is significantly lower during frequent-lightning hours compared with no-lightning hours. Finally, a notable positive relationship between the intracloud (IC) flash fraction and the square root of CAPE ($\sqrt{CAPE}$) was found, suggesting that stronger updrafts increase the height of the electrification zone, resulting in fewer flashes reaching the surface and consequently a greater IC flash fraction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Signatures of aerosol-cloud interactions in GiOcean: a coupled global reanalysis with two-moment cloud microphysics

Aerosols influence the Earth's radiative balance through direct interactions with radiation and by affecting cloud properties. Anthropogenic aerosols have led to cooling during the industrial era through aerosol–cloud interactions (ACI), including aerosol effects on cloud microphysical properties and the subsequent adjustments. However, large uncertainties remain in Earth system models (ESMs) regarding the magnitude of this cooling. In part, ESMs substantially disagree on cloud properties, thermodynamics, the hydrological cycle, and general circulation. Reanalysis provides a useful avenue for exploring the impact of ACI on clouds and radiation because its atmosphere is forced to match realistic conditions through the assimilation of observations. Here, we explore the impact of ACI on clouds in the GiOcean reanalysis – the first to incorporate aerosol-cloud interactions. We contrast variables important for ACI between GiOcean and satellite observations and develop 2-dimensional lookup tables of ACI for both using a source-sink budget perspective to attribute the changes in cloud droplet number (Nd) and liquid water path (LWP) to aerosol and meteorology. A compositing analysis using lookup tables shows that GiOcean captures key aspects of aerosol–cloud–precipitation interactions, including (1) activation of aerosol into cloud droplets, (2) effective precipitation scavenging of Nd, (3) suppression of precipitation by high Nd in regions with heavy aerosol emissions. In contrast, satellite observations do not exhibit clear patterns for processes (2) and (3). Random Forest analysis shows that interannual variability in Nd and LWP over the Northern Hemisphere ocean in GiOcean is primarily driven by precipitation, consistent with satellite observations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine learning reveals strong grid-scale dependence in the satellite N d –LWP relationship

The relationship between cloud droplet number concentration ( N d ) and liquid water path (LWP) is highly uncertain yet crucial for determining the impact of aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) on Earth's radiation budget. The N d -LWP relationship is examined using a machine learning (ML) random forest model applied to five years of satellite data at grid resolutions ranging from 10° to 0.05° in 12 distinct regions. In the subtropics, the shape of the N d -LWP relationship switches from an inverted-V at 1° grid-resolution to an “M” shape at 0.1° resolution with decreased $\frac{\textrm{dln⁡LWP}}{\textrm{dln⁡}N_d}$ sensitivity. Tropical and midlatitude regions generally show a more positive sensitivity. Cloud sampling and filtering also influence this slope, wherein the exclusion of thin clouds, as commonly performed to reduce retrieval uncertainty, leads to strongly negative sensitivity across all regions. Precipitation is primarily responsible for driving the strength of the sensitivity, with strong positive slopes in raining clouds and negative and/or neutral responses found in non-raining clouds. A new method to compute radiative forcing from the ML model shows a robust Twomey radiative forcing across all regions and grid resolutions. However, LWP and cloud fraction adjustments to the radiative forcing, which are ∼50 % or smaller than the Twomey effect, decrease to negligible values with higher spatial resolution data. As Earth system models move toward higher spatial resolutions in the future, evaluating the LWP and CF adjustment contributions to the radiative forcing budget at these finer resolutions will be essential for evaluation and model development.

Aerosol-Cloud Interactions↗
DOE OSTI2021

On the estimation of boundary layer heights: a machine learning approach

Abstract. The planetary boundary layer height (zi) is a key parameter used in atmospheric models for estimating the exchange of heat, momentum, and moisture between the surface and the free troposphere. Near-surface atmospheric and subsurface properties (such as soil temperature, relative humidity, etc.) are known to have an impact on zi. Nevertheless, precise relationships between these surface properties and zi are less well known and not easily discernible from the multi-year dataset. Machine learning approaches, such as random forest (RF), which use a multi-regression framework, help to decipher some of the physical processes linking surface-based characteristics to zi. In this study, a 4-year dataset from 2016 to 2019 at the Southern Great Plains site is used to develop and test a machine learning framework for estimating zi. Parameters derived from Doppler lidars are used in combination with over 20 different surface meteorological measurements as inputs to a RF model. The model is trained using radiosonde-derived zi values spanning the period from 2016 through 2018 and then evaluated using data from 2019. Results from 2019 showed significantly better agreement with the radiosonde compared to estimates derived from a thresholding technique using Doppler lidars only. Noteworthy improvements in daytime zi estimates were observed using the RF model, with a 50 % improvement in mean absolute error and an R2 of greater than 85 % compared to the Tucker method zi. We also explore the effect of zi uncertainty on convective velocity scaling and present preliminary comparisons between the RF model and zi estimates derived from atmospheric models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗