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At least 667 records · Page 37

The astrometric binary Mu Cassiopeiae - Photographically almost resolved

Photographic observations of the Population II subdwarf astrometric binary Mu Cas are described which almost resolve the components and permit an estimate of their magnitudes and separation. Red- and blue-light photographs of the system were taken during an observing period when the component separation was maximum. The separation of the two components is estimated to be about 1.5 arcsec, position angles of about 194 and 201 deg are determined for the two years of the observing period, and the apparent magnitude of the faint companion is found to be approximately 10.

Feibelman, W. A.↗

Far-infrared emission from the bulges of early-type spirals: KAO observations of NGC 4736 (M94) and NGC 3627 (M66)

We present new high spatial resolution Kuiper Airborne Observatory (KAO) 50 and 100 micrometers measurements of the ringed Sab galaxy NGC 4736 and the Sb galaxy NGC 3627. We detect strong far-infrared emission (approximately 10(exp 9) solar luminosity) from the bulge areas of these galaxies, regions where there is little observed star formation. This far-infrared radiation is extended over the bulge with spatial distributions similar to that of the old stellar population. The ratio of far-infrared to H-alpha luminosity for these central sources is significantly larger than for the star-forming regions in these galaxies. This ratio is higher than can be accounted for by dust heating due to a population of young stars with a mass distribution similar to the Salpeter initial mass function assuming current estimates of extinction, unless the upper mass limit is unusually low (approximately B1 stars). On the other hand, the bolometric luminosity of the observed bulge stars is sufficient to account for the far-infrared radiation. Thus, older stars are likely to be important in heating dust in these bulges. The dust in the centers of these galaxies is quite warm, approximately 40 K (lambda(exp -1) emissivity), however, the interstellar radiation fields derived from the optical luminosities are consistent with these temperatures without invoking hidden central star formation or a dusty active galactic nucleus.

Smith, Beverly J.↗

Spatial Variation in Erosion Rates in Mars Equatorial Regions Inferred from Ejecta Retention of 1-3 Km Diameter Craters

The modification of impact craters has long been used to infer the geomorphic forcing on Mars [1], as well as estimate the spatial and temporal variability of this erosion and gradation [e.g., 2]. Here, we studied the population of small primary craters (1-3 km) to understand differences in ejecta retention across equatorial Mars. Specifically, we evaluated whether craters in our study population had observable ejecta deposits (defined on the basis of distinct tone or texture with respect to their surroundings).This is a proxy for the resurfacing rate because only relatively fresh craters retain their ejecta deposits. More broadly, this is part of a larger project we are undertaking [3] to examine crater morphometry and other characteristics from CTX-derived digital terrain models (DTMs), augmented by qualitative observations.

Fassett, C. I.↗

Clean Energy Co-Benefits: Air Quality, Health and Just Energy Transitions

Outdoor air pollution is a leading environmental risk factor and contributes to public health concerns. With assistance from the Department of State, NREL researchers supported the expansion of the Intervention Model for Air Pollution (InMAP) to Global InMAP model. This model offers a new approach to estimating the human health impacts caused by air pollutant emissions and how those impacts are distributed across populations around the world. Further research sponsored by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and executed by NREL and the University of Minnesota applied the Global InMAP Model for the first time in a study of the effects of renewable electricity deployment on air quality and human health in Southeast Asia. This brief details the inception, application, and novel approach of the Global InMAP model, and more broadly NREL's capabilities for air quality modeling and health effects co-benefits analyses in the context of just energy transitions.

air quality↗

Laboratory Radar Measurements in Support of the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office’s Size Estimation Model

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) relies on ground-based radar measurements from both the Haystack Ultrawideband Satellite Imaging Radar (HUSIR) and the Goldstone Solar System Radar (Goldstone) to characterize mm to cm debris population in low Earth orbit (LEO). Radar measurements help characterize the size of orbital debris objects, particularly fragmentation debris. However, debris size is not directly measured by radar but inferred from the measured radar cross section (RCS) which depends on several parameters in addition to physical size including electrical conductivity and polarization. To interpret the observed RCS of orbital debris objects detected by radar measurements as physical sizes, NASA uses an empirical size estimation model (SEM) based on laboratory RCS measurements of breakup fragments generated during hypervelocity impact tests as well as some pieces of non-impact-generated “artificial” debris-like objects expected to be representative of the debris population. Since the development of the ODPO SEM, many new materials have been introduced to spacecraft construction. Consequently, ODPO plans to update the radar SEM based on planned laboratory RCS measurements of debris fragments from DebriSat, a ground-based hypervelocity impact experiment conducted in 2014 that consisted of a high-fidelity spacecraft model characteristic of a modern LEO spacecraft. Prior to measuring DebriSat fragments, a set of calibration targets with well-defined geometries and material compositions were measured at The Ohio State University’s ElectroScience Laboratory (OSU-ESL) compact radar range. These calibration measurements help to validate, and understand any limitations of, laboratory measurements of RCS. Calibration targets include idealizations of typical shape categories seen in DebriSat fragments such as nuggets, flat plates, and cylinders. As with DebriSat, calibration target materials were chosen to represent typical modern-day spacecraft components and include stainless steel, aluminum, printed circuit board (PCB) substrate, and carbon fiber-reinforced polymer (CFRP). These materials also represent a wide range of electrical conductivities, which strongly influences measured RCS and inferred target size. The RCS calibration measurements were collected over a frequency sweep from 2 to 18 GHz and stepping through different azimuth angles from 0 to 360 degrees at an elevation of 0 degrees. A second set of calibration measurements is in work consisting of more complex shapes such as bent rods and plates as well as different mounting options including epoxy and a 3D printed holder. These further measurements along with our initial calibration set will inform selection of representative DebriSat fragments for laboratory RCS measurements that will contribute to the planned update to the ODPO radar SEM. An appropriate subset of both the radar calibration and DebriSat samples will also be measured in the ODPO Optical Measurements Center to cross-calibrate size estimates over these different wavelength regimes.

Radar↗

Energy Feedback from X-ray Binaries in the Early Universe

X-ray photons, because of their long mean-free paths, can easily escape the galactic environments where they are produced, and interact at long distances with the intergalactic medium, potentially having a significant contribution to the heating and reionization of the early universe. The two most important sources of X-ray photons in the universe are active galactic nuclei (AGNs) and X-ray binaries (XRBs). In this Letter we use results from detailed, large scale population synthesis simulations to study the energy feedback of XRBs, from the first galaxies (z (redshift) approximately equal to 20) until today.We estimate that X-ray emission from XRBs dominates over AGN at z (redshift) greater than or approximately equal to 6-8. The shape of the spectral energy distribution of the emission from XRBs shows little change with redshift, in contrast to its normalization which evolves by approximately 4 orders of magnitude, primarily due to the evolution of the cosmic star-formation rate. However, the metallicity and the mean stellar age of a given XRB population affect significantly its X-ray output. Specifically, the X-ray luminosity from high-mass XRBs per unit of star-formation rate varies an order of magnitude going from solar metallicity to less than 10% solar, and the X-ray luminosity from low-mass XRBs per unit of stellar mass peaks at an age of approximately 300 Myr (million years) and then decreases gradually at later times, showing little variation for mean stellar ages 3 Gyr (Giga years, or billion years). Finally, we provide analytical and tabulated prescriptions for the energy output of XRBs, that can be directly incorporated in cosmological simulations.

galaxies↗

Metabolic Costs of Walking with Weighted Vests

ABSTRACT Introduction The US Army Load Carriage Decision Aid (LCDA) metabolic model is used by militaries across the globe and is intended to predict physiological responses, specifically metabolic costs, in a wide range of dismounted warfighter operations. However, the LCDA has yet to be adapted for vest-borne load carriage, which is commonplace in tactical populations, and differs in energetic costs to backpacking and other forms of load carriage. Purpose The purpose of this study is to develop and validate a metabolic model term that accurately estimates the effect of weighted vest loads on standing and walking metabolic rate for military mission-planning and general applications. Methods Twenty healthy, physically active military-age adults (4 women, 16 men; age, 26 ± 8 yr old; height, 1.74 ± 0.09 m; body mass, 81 ± 16 kg) walked for 6 to 21 min with four levels of weighted vest loading (0 to 66% body mass) at up to 11 treadmill speeds (0.45 to 1.97 m·s −1 ). Using indirect calorimetry measurements, we derived a new model term for estimating metabolic rate when carrying vest-borne loads. Model estimates were evaluated internally byk-fold cross-validation and externally against 12 reference datasets (264 total participants). We tested if the 90% confidence interval of the mean paired difference was within equivalence limits equal to 10% of the measured walking metabolic rate. Estimation accuracy, precision, and level of agreement were also evaluated by the bias, standard deviation of paired differences, and concordance correlation coefficient (CCC), respectively. Results Metabolic rate estimates using the new weighted vest term were statistically equivalent (P< 0.01) to measured values in the current study (bias, −0.01 ± 0.54 W·kg −1 ; CCC, 0.973) as well as from the 12 reference datasets (bias, −0.16 ± 0.59 W·kg −1 ; CCC, 0.963). Conclusions The updated LCDA metabolic model calculates accurate predictions of metabolic rate when carrying heavy backpack and vest-borne loads. Tactical populations and recreational athletes that train with weighted vests can confidently use the simplified LCDA metabolic calculator provided as Supplemental Digital Content to estimate metabolic rates for work/rest guidance, training periodization, and nutritional interventions.

Sport Sciences↗

Redshift inference from the combination of galaxy colours and clustering in a hierarchical Bayesian model – Application to realistic N -body simulations

ABSTRACT Photometric galaxy surveys constitute a powerful cosmological probe but rely on the accurate characterization of their redshift distributions using only broad-band imaging, and can be very sensitive to incomplete or biased priors used for redshift calibration. A hierarchical Bayesian model has recently been developed to estimate those from the robust combination of prior information, photometry of single galaxies, and the information contained in the galaxy clustering against a well-characterized tracer population. In this work, we extend the method so that it can be applied to real data, developing some necessary new extensions to it, especially in the treatment of galaxy clustering information, and we test it on realistic simulations. After marginalizing over the mapping between the clustering estimator and the actual density distribution of the sample galaxies, and using prior information from a small patch of the survey, we find the incorporation of clustering information with photo-z’s tightens the redshift posteriors and overcomes biases in the prior that mimic those happening in spectroscopic samples. The method presented here uses all the information at hand to reduce prior biases and incompleteness. Even in cases where we artificially bias the spectroscopic sample to induce a shift in mean redshift of $\Delta \bar{z} \approx 0.05,$ the final biases in the posterior are $\Delta \bar{z} \lesssim 0.003.$ This robustness to flaws in the redshift prior or training samples would constitute a milestone for the control of redshift systematic uncertainties in future weak lensing analyses.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Using Regionalized Air Quality Model Performance and Bayesian Maximum Entropy Data Fusion to Map Global Surface Ozone Concentration and Associated Uncertainty

Estimates of ground-level ozone concentrations have been improved through data fusion of observations and atmospheric chemistry models. Our previous global ozone estimates for the Global Burden of Disease study corrected for bias uniformly across continents and then corrected near monitoring stations using the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) framework for data fusion. Here, we use the Regionalized Air Quality Model Performance (RAMP) framework to correct model bias over a much larger spatial range than BME can, accounting for the spatial inhomogeneity of bias and nonlinearity as a function of modeled ozone. RAMP bias correction is applied to a composite of 9 global chemistry-climate models, based on the nearest set of monitors. These estimates are then fused with observations using BME, which matches observations at measurement stations, with the influence of observations declining with distance in space and time. We create global ozone maps for each year from 1990 to 2017 at fine spatial resolution. RAMP is shown to create unrealistic discontinuities due to the spatial clustering of ozone monitors, which we overcome by applying a weighting for RAMP based on the number of monitors nearby. Incorporating RAMP before BME has little effect on model performance near stations, but strongly increases R 2 by 0.15 at locations farther from stations, shown through a checkerboard cross-validation. Corrections to estimates differ based on location in space and time, confirming heterogeneity. We quantify the likelihood of exceeding selected ozone levels, finding that parts of the Middle East, India, and China are most likely to exceed 55 parts per billion (ppb) in 2017. About 96% of the global population was exposed to ozone levels above the World Health Organization guideline of 60 µg m −3 (30 ppb) in 2017. Our annual fine-resolution ozone estimates may be useful for several applications including epidemiology and assessments of impacts on health, agriculture, and ecosystems.

Ozone↗

An Evidenced-Based Approach for Estimating Decompression Sickness Risk in Aircraft Operations

Estimating the risk of decompression Sickness (DCS) in aircraft operations remains a challenge, making the reduction of this risk through the development of operationally acceptable denitrogenation schedules difficult. In addition, the medical recommendations which are promulgated are often not supported by rigorous evaluation of the available data, but are instead arrived at by negotiation with the aircraft operations community, are adapted from other similar aircraft operations, or are based upon the opinion of the local medical community. We present a systematic approach for defining DCS risk in aircraft operations by analyzing the data available for a specific aircraft, flight profile, and aviator population. Once the risk of DCS in a particular aircraft operation is known, appropriate steps can be taken to reduce this risk to a level acceptable to the applicable aviation community. Using this technique will allow any aviation medical community to arrive at the best estimate of DCS risk for its specific mission and aviator population and will allow systematic reevaluation of the decisions regarding DCS risk reduction when additional data are available.

Robinson, Ronald R.↗

Progenitors and explosion properties of supernova remnants hosting central compact objects: II. A global systematic study with a comparison to nucleosynthesis models

ABSTRACT Core-collapse explosions of massive stars leave behind neutron stars, with a known diversity that includes the ‘Central Compact Objects’ (CCOs). Typified by the neutron star discovered near the centre of the Cas A supernova remnant (SNR), CCOs have been observed to shine only in X-rays. To address their supernova progenitors, we perform a systematic study of SNRs that contain a CCO and display X-ray emission from their shock-heated ejecta. We make use of X-ray data primarily using the Chandra X-ray observatory, complemented with XMM–Newton. This study uses a systematic approach to the analysis of each SNR aimed at addressing the supernova progenitor as well as the explosion properties (energy and ambient density). After fitting for the ejecta abundances estimated from a spatially resolved spectroscopic study, we compare the data to six nucleosynthesis models making predictions on supernova ejecta yields in core-collapse explosions. We find that the explosion models commonly used by the astrophysics community do not match the ejecta yields for any of the SNRs, suggesting additional physics, for example multidimensional explosion models or updated progenitor structures, are required. Overall we find low-mass (≤25 solar masses) progenitors among the massive stars population and low-energy explosions (<1051 ergs). We discuss degeneracies in our model fitting, particularly how altering the explosion energy affects the estimate of the progenitor mass. Our systematic study highlights the need for improving on the theoretical models for nucleosynthesis predictions as well as for sensitive, high-resolution spectroscopy observations to be acquired with next generation X-ray missions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Spatially Explicit Individual-Based Modeling Approach to Evaluate the Cumulative Effects of Wind Energy Development on the Greater Sage-Grouse: Sensitivity Analysis and Validation of Key Parameters

To address the need for an approach to evaluate cumulative ecological impacts of wind energy development, particularly those on critical wildlife habitats and species, the authors developed a proof-of-concept, landscape-based, spatially explicit individual-based modeling (IBM) framework for populations of the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Albany County, Wyoming, based on published and other available information on the life history of the species. This sage-grouse IBM estimates the spatial and temporal movements of sage-grouse based on modeled effects of habitat characteristics and developments on sage-grouse condition, survivorship, and reproduction. After completing the initial version of the model, we conducted a series of sensitivity analyses of key model parameters and validation of lek occurrences and spatial distributions to better understand performance of the model relative to observed values of important life history characteristics. The parameter sensitivity analysis was conducted as a series of one-factor-at-a-time tests in which the values of selected parameters were individually varied to evaluate the corresponding effects on model output. We examined the model’s response to changes in parameter values to gain insight into the overall robustness of the model, identify key driver parameters, and initiate qualitative validation. Five functions selected for sensitivity analyses were (1) the rate of change in body condition in relationship to habitat suitability index (HSI) of occupied habitat (condition change rate), (2) the effect of competition between individuals with overlapping home ranges expressed as a percentage reduction in HSI (competition factor), (3) value of condition at which survivorship probability is equal to zero (zero survivorship condition), (4) the relationship between female body condition and clutch size, and (5) the relationship between female body condition and nest success. We varied the parameter values to be tested for the sensitivity analysis around the original value used in the model (i.e., tested values were higher and lower than the model’s original value) to examine the effect of this variation on the predicted output of the model. Model outputs evaluated in the sensitivity analysis included (1) predicted age-class distribution (as measured by the percentage of immature individuals within the population); (2) predicted sex ratio; (3) predicted age-sex class distribution (percent of population in each of six age-sex classes, i.e., male and female juveniles, yearlings, and adults); (4) lifespan; (5) population size; and (6) spatial distribution. Of the five parameters analyzed, condition change rate, survivorship, clutch size, and nest success did not substantially affect any of the evaluated model outputs. For the predicted age-class distribution, the percentage of immature individuals predicted by the model for these four parameters ranged from 61.9% to 65.0%, which was reasonable with respect to the reference values of 51.4 to 57.8% in published studies. The ratio of females to males ranged from 1.09 to 1.14, which was comparable to the reference values of 1.2 to 3.0 presented in an existing study. The predicted mean lifespan ranged from 1.62 to 1.74 years, which appears to be reasonable with respect to the reference values of 0.9 to 1.1 years for sharp-tail grouse and greater prairie chickens presented by published studies. The predicted population size ranged from 1,877 to 3,140. This prediction would be reasonable with respect to our estimate of 5,000 yearlings and adults, which was based on the USFWS estimate for the state of Wyoming scaled to the number of leks in the county. The predicted spatial distribution was not substantially affected by the parameter values examined. In our sensitivity analyses, the only tested parameter that had a noticeable effect on model output was competition factor. Over the range of values tested for this parameter, predicted population size exhibited the largest range (from 1,833 to 4,737) of all parameters tested. As the competition factor increased, the predicted population size decreased. This reflects the effect competition had on the number of individuals that could co occur in high-quality habitat patches. Despite this apparently significant effect, the range of values appears to be reasonable with respect to our estimate of 5,000 yearlings and adults, which was based on the USFWS estimate for the state of Wyoming scaled to the number of leks in the county.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Implications from Monitoring Gopher Tortoises at Two Spatial Scales

A problem that conservation biologists face is how to monitor species, given both resource limitations and the inherent challenges of assessing long-term demographic processes. We assessed gopher tortoise (Gopherus polyphemus) abundance at a landscape scale and at the scale of 3 local populations within the Conecuh National Forest (CNF).USA between 1991 and 2017. Landscape-level data were collected 26 from line transect distance sampling arranged uniformly across the CNF and collected during a single season (2011); data for local populations were generated from long-term mark-recapture of individuals at three sites selected based on prior knowledge of high density at each. At a landscape scale, we estimated 5,242 (95% CI = 3,538-7,768) tortoises occurred across the approximately 34,000-ha forest, yielding a density of 0.14-0.32 tortoises/ ha. These low densities across the landscape suggest that, on average, management activities across the property have not allowed tortoise populations to retain social structure needed for long-term persistence. The three local populations, however, contained 25-60 individuals and densities of 1.9–6.9 tortoises/ha. Over the study period, populations at two sites were stable and the third experienced significant population growth. Mean annual survival of individuals was 0.89 and invariant across size classes. Altogether, line transect distance sampling is important for assessing landscape-scale abundance of tortoises but may fail to detect local clusters of high-density sites important for population persistence. Our mark-recapture efforts at the local scale revealed that small populations on these high-density sites can exhibit long-term stability or growth even though they do not meet current established criteria for viability. Improved models that incorporate immigration and emigration and better reflect dynamics of peripheral populations would assist in determining how such populations best contribute to species recovery and regional conservation targets.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Bayesian filtering for model predictive control of stochastic gene expression in single cells

This study describes a method for controlling the production of protein in individual cells using stochastic models of gene expression. By combining modern microscopy platforms with optogenetic gene expression, experimentalists are able to accurately apply light to individual cells, which can induce protein production. Here we use a finite state projection based stochastic model of gene expression, along with Bayesian state estimation to control protein copy numbers within individual cells. We compare this method to previous methods that use population based approaches. We also demonstrate the ability of this control strategy to ameliorate discrepancies between the predictions of a deterministic model and stochastic switching system.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The dark matter haloes of HI selected galaxies

We present the neutral hydrogen mass (M HI) function (HIMF) and velocity width (w 50 ) function (HIWF) based on a sample of 7857 galaxies from the 40 per cent data release of the ALFALFA survey (α.40). The low mass (velocity width) end of the HIMF (HIWF) is dominated by the blue population of galaxies whereas the red population dominates the HIMF (HIWF) at the high mass (velocity width) end. We use a deconvolution method to estimate the HI rotational velocity (V rot ) functions (HIVF) from the HIWF for the total, red, and blue samples. The HIWF and HIVF for the red and blue samples are well separated at the knee of the function compared to their HIMFs. We then use recent stacking results from the ALFALFA survey to constrain the halo mass (M h ) function of HI-selected galaxies. This allows us to obtain various scaling relations between M HI –w 50 –V rot –M h , which we present. The M HI –M h relation has a steep slope ~2.10 at small masses and flattens to ~0.34 at masses larger than a transition halo mass, $\log _{10}(M_{\rm{ht}}h_{70}^2/M_{\odot })=10.62$. Our scaling relation is robust and consistent with a volume-limited sample of α.40. The M HI –M h relation is qualitatively similar to the M star –M h relation but the transition halo mass is smaller by ~1.4 dex compared to that of the M star –M h relation. Our results suggest that baryonic processes like heating and feedback in larger mass haloes suppress HI gas on a shorter time-scale compared to star formation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The extralunar component in lunar soils and breccias.

Concentrations of Ni, Zn, Ga, Ge, Cd, In, and Ir in soils and breccias returned by Apollo 14 and Apollo 15 are reported. The integrated flux of extralunar material at each lunar landing site is estimated on the basis of the siderophilic elements Ni, Ge, Ir, and Au. It falls with time between 3.95 and 3.26 g.y. before the present. The flux versus time relationship indicated by the trace element data is consistent with estimates of the same relationship based on crater statistics and morphologies, as would be expected if the same populations of interplanetary objects were responsible for both properties. The data are consistent with the presence of two populations of material bombarding the moon early in its history, one with a short half-life that was dominant until about 3.8 g.y. ago, and another with a half-life of about 2.0 g.y. that dominated during the more recent era.

Baedecker, P. A.↗

Ultrahigh energy neutrinos from galactic neutron stars

An attempt is made to estimate the production rate of ultrahigh energy (UHE) neutrinos from galactic neutron stars. The statistics of various stellar populations are reviewed as well as an evolutionary scheme linking several neutron star environments. An observational test for predicting stellar evolution is made using two mass ratio intervals of less than 0.3 and greater than or approximately equal to 0.3, which is supported by kinematical evidence. Attention is given to the problem of the target material that is required by UHE protons accelerated from the pulsar's surface to their rotational kinetic energy, and to the detectability of neutron stars in the UHE neutrinos by employing the deep underwater muon and neutrino detector (DUMAND) array.

Helfand, D. J.↗

Spatial color variations in the volcanic plume at Loki, on Io

Multicolor Voyager 1 photographs of the Loki volcanic plume, on Io, have been analyzed to determine the nature and quantity of the scattering material within the plume. This work indicates that there are two particle populations. The first population consists of particles with radius of 0.001-0.01 microns, while the second population, which is concentrated near the source, comprises particles with radius greater than 1 micron. The population of smaller particles includes most of the particulate mass in the plume. This work increases the previously estimated particulate mass (Johnson et al., 1979) and suggests that the SO2 gas spectroscopically identified by Pearl et al. (1979) may represent transient flow from the volcano instead of an atmosphere in stable equilibrium with the local surface.

Collins, S. A.↗