Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Performance prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 667 records · Page 37

Performance of Optimized Actuator and Sensor Arrays in an Active Noise Control System

Experiments have been conducted in NASA Langley s Acoustics and Dynamics Laboratory to determine the effectiveness of optimized actuator/sensor architectures and controller algorithms for active control of harmonic interior noise. Tests were conducted in a large scale fuselage model - a composite cylinder which simulates a commuter class aircraft fuselage with three sections of trim panel and a floor. Using an optimization technique based on the component transfer functions, combinations of 4 out of 8 piezoceramic actuators and 8 out of 462 microphone locations were evaluated against predicted performance. A combinatorial optimization technique call tabu search was employed to select the optimum transducer arrays. Three test frequencies represent the cases of a strong acoustic and strong structural response, a weak acoustic and strong structural response and a strong acoustic and weak structural response. Noise reduction was obtained using a Time Averaged/Gradient Descent (TAGD) controller. Results indicate that the optimization technique successfully predicted best and worst case performance. An enhancement of the TAGD control algorithm was also evaluated. The principal components of the actuator/sensor transfer functions were used in the PC-TAGD controller. The principal components are shown to be independent of each other while providing control as effective as the standard TAGD.

Palumbo, D. L.↗

Bayesian inference of structured latent spaces from neural population activity with the orthogonal stochastic linear mixing model

The brain produces diverse functions, from perceiving sounds to producing arm reaches, through the collective activity of populations of many neurons. Determining if and how the features of these exogenous variables (e.g., sound frequency, reach angle) are reflected in population neural activity is important for understanding how the brain operates. Often, high-dimensional neural population activity is confined to low-dimensional latent spaces. However, many current methods fail to extract latent spaces that are clearly structured by exogenous variables. This has contributed to a debate about whether or not brains should be thought of as dynamical systems or representational systems. Here, we developed a new latent process Bayesian regression framework, the orthogonal stochastic linear mixing model (OSLMM) which introduces an orthogonality constraint amongst time-varying mixture coefficients, and provide Markov chain Monte Carlo inference procedures. We demonstrate superior performance of OSLMM on latent trajectory recovery in synthetic experiments and show superior computational efficiency and prediction performance on several real-world benchmark data sets. We primarily focus on demonstrating the utility of OSLMM in two neural data sets: μ ECoG recordings from rat auditory cortex during presentation of pure tones and multi-single unit recordings form monkey motor cortex during complex arm reaching. We show that OSLMM achieves superior or comparable predictive accuracy of neural data and decoding of external variables (e.g., reach velocity). Most importantly, in both experimental contexts, we demonstrate that OSLMM latent trajectories directly reflect features of the sounds and reaches, demonstrating that neural dynamics are structured by neural representations. Together, these results demonstrate that OSLMM will be useful for the analysis of diverse, large-scale biological time-series datasets.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Airborne hyperspectral imaging of cover crops through radiative transfer process-guided machine learning

Cover cropping between cash crop growing seasons is a multifunctional conservation practice. Timely and accurate monitoring of cover crop traits, notably aboveground biomass and nutrient content, is beneficial to agricultural stakeholders to improve management and understand outcomes. Currently, there is a scarcity of spatially and temporally resolved information for assessing cover crop growth. Remote sensing has a high potential to fill this need, but conventional empirical regression operated with coarse-resolution multispectral data has large uncertainties. Therefore, this study utilized airborne hyperspectral imaging techniques and developed new process-guided machine learning approaches (PGML) for cover crop monitoring. Specifically, we deployed an airborne hyperspectral system covering visible to shortwave-infrared wavelengths (400–2400 nm) to acquire high spatial (0.5 m) and spectral (3–5 nm) resolution reflectance over 23 cover crop fields across Central Illinois in March and April of 2021. Airborne hyperspectral surface reflectance with high spectral and spatial resolution can be well matched with field data to quantify cover crop traits. Furthermore, the PGML models were pre-trained by synthetic data from soil-vegetation radiative transfer modeling (one million records), and then fine-tuned with field data of cover crop biomass and nutrient content. Results show that airborne hyperspectral data with PGML can achieve high accuracy to predict cover crop aboveground biomass (R 2 = 0.72, relative RMSE = 15.16%) and nitrogen content (R 2 = 0.69, relative RMSE = 16.59%) through leave-one-field-out cross-validation. Unlike the pure data-driven approach (e.g., partial least-squares regression), PGML incorporated radiative transfer knowledge and obtained higher predictive performance with fewer field data. Meanwhile, with field data for model fine-tuning, PGML predicted biomass more accurately than the inversion of radiative transfer models. Here we also found that the red edge has a high contribution in quantifying aboveground biomass and nitrogen content, followed by green and shortwave spectra. This study demonstrated the first attempt of utilizing hyperspectral remote sensing to accurately quantify cover crop traits. We highlight the strength of PGML in exploiting sensing data to quantify ecosystem variables to advance agroecosystem monitoring for sustainable agricultural management.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Remaining Useful Strength (RUS) Prediction of SiCf-SiCm Composite Materials Using Deep Learning and Acoustic Emission

Prognosis techniques for prediction of remaining useful life (RUL) are of crucial importance to the management of complex systems for they can lead to appropriate maintenance interventions and improvements in reliability. While various data-driven methods have been introduced to predict the remaining useful life (RUL) of machinery systems or batteries, no research has been reported on the remaining useful strength (RUS) prediction of silicon carbide fiber reinforced silicon carbide matrix (SiCf-SiCm) materials with pivotal role in its potential usage as a structural material in nuclear reactors and turbine engines. Knowledge of its degradation process is of the utmost importance to the manufacturers. For this purpose, two approaches based on the machine-learning techniques of random-forest (RF) and convolutional neural network (CNN) are proposed to predict the RUS of SiCf-SiCm using only acoustic emission (AE) signals generated during the material’s stress applying process. Experimental results show that the CNN models achieved better predictive performance than the RF models but the latter with expert-engineered features achieves better prediction for AE signals in the early stage of degradation. Additionally, our results demonstrate that both models can correctly predict the SiCf-SiCm RUS as evaluated by our robust testing method from which the best average root mean square error (RMSE) and Pearson correlation coefficient of 3.55 ksi units and 0.85 were obtained.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

OAO battery data analysis

Summary, consolidation and analysis of specifications, manufacturing process and test controls, and performance results for OAO-2 and OAO-3 lot 20 Amp-Hr sealed nickel cadmium cells and batteries are reported. Correlation of improvements in control requirements with performance is a key feature. Updates for a cell/battery computer model to improve performance prediction capability are included. Applicability of regression analysis computer techniques to relate process controls to performance is checked.

Gaston, S.↗

A generalized correlation of experimental flat-plate collector performance

A generalized collector performance correlation was derived and shown by experimental verification to be of the proper form to account for the majority of the variable conditions encountered both in outdoor and in indoor collector tests. This correlation permits a determination of collector parameters which are essentially nonvarying under conditions which do vary randomly (outdoors) or conditions which vary in a controlled manner (indoors - simulator). It was shown that correlation of the experimental performance of collectors allows the following: (1) comparisons of different collector designs; (2) collector performance prediction under conditions that differ from the conditions of the test program; and (3) monitoring performance degradation effects.

Simon, F. F.↗

A generalized correlation of experimental flat-plate collector performance

A generalized correlation of flat-plate collector performance obtained by outdoor and indoor test methods is presented. This correlation shows that the indoor (simulator) test approach is a special case of the general situation of variable solar conditions. The important feature of the generalized correlation is that it permits a separation of the solar variables (flux, incident angle, etc.) which affect collector performance from the collector parameters (absorptance, transmittance, heat loss, etc.) which also affect collector performance and which are uniquely part of a given collector design. The correlation permits an evaluation of the relative merits of using instantaneous, hourly and daily collector efficiencies in obtaining a good collector correlation. The question of the transient behavior outdoors of a collector is an important part of determining whether to use instantaneous, hourly or daily efficiency values in a correlation approach. Correlation of the experimental performance of collectors allows the following: (1) comparisons of different collector designs, (2) collector performance prediction under conditions that differ from the conditions of the test program, and (3) monitoring performance degradation effects.

Simon, F. F.↗

Experimental Results from the Thermal Energy Storage-1 (TES-1) Flight Experiment

The Thermal Energy Storage-1 (TES-1) is a flight experiment that flew on the Space Shuttle Columbia (STS-62), in March 1994, as part of the OAST-2 mission. TES-1 is the first experiment in a four experiment suite designed to provide data for understanding the long duration microgravity behavior of thermal energy storage fluoride salts that undergo repeated melting and freezing. Such data have never been obtained before and have direct application for the development of space-based solar dynamic (SD) power systems. These power systems will store solar energy in a thermal energy salt such as lithium fluoride or calcium fluoride. The stored energy is extracted during the shade portion of the orbit. This enables the solar dynamic power system to provide constant electrical power over the entire orbit. Analytical computer codes have been developed for predicting performance of a spaced-based solar dynamic power system. Experimental verification of the analytical predictions is needed prior to using the analytical results for future space power design applications. The four TES flight experiments will be used to obtain the needed experimental data. This paper will focus on the flight results from the first experiment, TES-1, in comparison to the predicted results from the Thermal Energy Storage Simulation (TESSIM) analytical computer code. The TES-1 conceptual development, hardware design, final development, and system verification testing were accomplished at the NASA lewis Research Center (LeRC). TES-1 was developed under the In-Space Technology Experiment Program (IN-STEP), which sponsors NASA, industry, and university flight experiments designed to enable and enhance space flight technology. The IN-STEP Program is sponsored by the Office of Space Access and Technology (OSAT).

Wald, Lawrence W.↗

Experimental Results from the Thermal Energy Storage-2 (TES-2) Flight Experiment

Thermal Energy Storage-2 (TES-2) is a flight experiment that flew on the Space Shuttle Endeavour (STS-72), in January 1996. TES-2 originally flew with TES-1 as part of the OAST-2 Hitchhiker payload on the Space Shuttle Columbia (STS-62) in early 1994. The two experiments, TES-1 and TES-2 were identical except for the fluoride salts to be characterized. TES-1 provided data on lithium fluoride (LiF), TES-2 provided data on a fluoride eutectic (LiF/CaF2). Each experiment was a complex autonomous payload in a Get-Away-Special payload canister. TES-1 operated flawlessly for 22 hr. Results were reported in a paper entitled, Effect of Microgravity on Materials Undergoing Melting and Freezing-The TES Experiment, by David Namkoong et al. A software failure in TES-2 caused its shutdown after 4 sec of operation. TES-1 and 2 were the first experiments in a four experiment suite designed to provide data for understanding the long duration microgravity behavior of thermal energy storage salts that undergo repeated melting and freezing. Such data have never been obtained before and have direct application for the development of space-based solar dynamic (SD) power systems. These power systems will store energy in a thermal energy salt such as lithium fluoride or a eutectic of lithium fluoride/calcium difluoride. The stored energy is extracted during the shade portion of the orbit. This enables the solar dynamic power system to provide constant electrical power over the entire orbit. Analytical computer codes were developed for predicting performance of a space-based solar dynamic power system. Experimental verification of the analytical predictions were needed prior to using the analytical results for future space power design applications. The four TES flight experiments were to be used to obtain the needed experimental data. This paper will address the flight results from the first and second experiments, TES-1 and 2, in comparison to the predicted results from the Thermal Energy Storage Simulation (TESSIM) analytical computer code. An analysis of the TES-2 data was conducted by Cleveland State University Professor, Mounir Ibrahim. TESSIM validation was based on two types of results; temperature history of various points on the containment vessel and TES material distribution within the vessel upon return from flight. The TESSIM prediction showed close comparison with the flight data. Distribution of the TES material within the vessel was obtained by a tomography imaging process. The frozen TES material was concentrated toward the colder end of the canister. The TESSIM prediction indicated a similar pattern. With agreement between TESSIM and the flight data, a computerized representation was produced to show the movement and behavior of the void during the entire melting and freezing cycles.

Tolbert, Carol↗

Reliability Prediction

RELAV, a NASA-developed computer program, enables Systems Control Technology, Inc. (SCT) to predict performance of aircraft subsystems. RELAV provides a system level evaluation of a technology. Systems, the mechanism of a landing gear for example, are first described as a set of components performing a specific function. RELAV analyzes the total system and the individual subsystem probabilities to predict success probability, and reliability. This information is then translated into operational support and maintenance requirements. SCT provides research and development services in support of government contracts.

Source record↗

Multi-Objective Reinforcement Learning-Based Deep Neural Networks for Cognitive Space Communications

Future communication subsystems of space exploration missions can potentially benefit from software-defined radios (SDRs) controlled by machine learning algorithms. In this paper, we propose a novel hybrid radio resource allocation management control algorithm that integrates multi-objective reinforcement learning and deep artificial neural networks. The objective is to efficiently manage communications system resources by monitoring performance functions with common dependent variables that result in conflicting goals. The uncertainty in the performance of thousands of different possible combinations of radio parameters makes the trade-off between exploration and exploitation in reinforcement learning (RL) much more challenging for future critical space-based missions. Thus, the system should spend as little time as possible on exploring actions, and whenever it explores an action, it should perform at acceptable levels most of the time. The proposed approach enables on-line learning by interactions with the environment and restricts poor resource allocation performance through virtual environment exploration. Improvements in the multiobjective performance can be achieved via transmitter parameter adaptation on a packet-basis, with poorly predicted performance promptly resulting in rejected decisions. Simulations presented in this work considered the DVB-S2 standard adaptive transmitter parameters and additional ones expected to be present in future adaptive radio systems. Performance results are provided by analysis of the proposed hybrid algorithm when operating across a satellite communication channel from Earth to GEO orbit during clear sky conditions. The proposed approach constitutes part of the core cognitive engine proof-of-concept to be delivered to the NASA Glenn Research Center SCaN Testbed located onboard the International Space Station.

space archtiecture↗

Multi-Objective Reinforcement Learning-based Deep Neural Networks for Cognitive Space Communications

Future communication subsystems of space exploration missions can potentially benefit from software-defined radios (SDRs) controlled by machine learning algorithms. In this paper, we propose a novel hybrid radio resource allocation management control algorithm that integrates multi-objective reinforcement learning and deep artificial neural networks. The objective is to efficiently manage communications system resources by monitoring performance functions with common dependent variables that result in conflicting goals. The uncertainty in the performance of thousands of different possible combinations of radio parameters makes the trade-off between exploration and exploitation in reinforcement learning (RL) much more challenging for future critical space-based missions. Thus, the system should spend as little time as possible on exploring actions, and whenever it explores an action, it should perform at acceptable levels most of the time. The proposed approach enables on-line learning by interactions with the environment and restricts poor resource allocation performance through virtual environment exploration. Improvements in the multiobjective performance can be achieved via transmitter parameter adaptation on a packet-basis, with poorly predicted performance promptly resulting in rejected decisions. Simulations presented in this work considered the DVB-S2 standard adaptive transmitter parameters and additional ones expected to be present in future adaptive radio systems. Performance results are provided by analysis of the proposed hybrid algorithm when operating across a satellite communication channel from Earth to GEO orbit during clear sky conditions. The proposed approach constitutes part of the core cognitive engine proof-of-concept to be delivered to the NASA Glenn Research Center SCaN Testbed located onboard the International Space Station.

space archtiecture↗

Machine Learning-Based Predictive Analytics for Aircraft Engine Conceptual Design

Big data and artificial intelligence/machine learning are transforming the global business environment. Data is now the most valuable asset for enterprises in every industry. Companies are using data-driven insights for competitive advantage. With that, the adoption of machine learning-based data analytics is rapidly taking hold across various industries, producing autonomous systems that support human decision-making. This work explored the application of machine learning to aircraft engine conceptual design. Supervised machine-learning algorithms for regression and classification were employed to study patterns in an existing, open-source database of production and research turbofan engines, and resulting in predictive analytics for use in predicting performance of new turbofan designs. Specifically, the author developed machine learning-based analytics to predict cruise thrust specific fuel consumption (TSFC) and core sizes of high-efficiency turbofan engines, using engine design parameters as the input. The predictive analytics were trained and deployed in Keras, an open-source neural networks application program interface (API) written in Python, with Google’s TensorFlow (an open source library for numerical computation) serving as the backend engine. The promising results of the predictive analytics show that machine-learning techniques merit further exploration for application in aircraft engine conceptual design.

deep-learning↗

Operation of helium sub-atmospheric multistage cryogenic centrifugal compressor trains: Part 2 – Transient modeling and pump-down path selection

Low-pressure conditions required for operation of helium cryogenic systems below the normal boiling point (i.e. 4.2 K) are established through a transient process, commonly referred to as ‘pump-down’. This process is defined as the transition from pressures above atmospheric conditions to the saturation pressure which corresponds to a specified operational temperature. The FRIB 2 K system consists of five cryogenic centrifugal compressors which are operated in series. Historically, the pump-down process path has been established through empirical methods and system operator experience. Investigation into the pump-down process at FRIB aimed to develop a pump-down methodology which relies on theoretical model predictions rather than empirically developed process paths. Ensuring stable operation during the pump-down process involved application of a centrifugal compressor performance prediction model, which is described in Part 1 of this paper. Compressor performance maps can be directly used to evaluate the stability of a selected pump-down path and anticipate the overall reliability of the selected path. In conjunction with the compressor performance maps, a system pressure model was developed to estimate the transient pressure response during the pump-down process. Lastly, an explicit equation was developed to establish a mass flow rate profile for the pump-down process. Implementation of the presented methodology (including the developed models) allows for the system operator to determine a continuous pump-down path which maintains compressor stability while conforming to overall system capabilities. Altogether, the methodology presented has resulted in simplification of transient pump-down operations and increased the reliability, stability and efficiency of the pump-down process.

Compressor train control↗

Solar Decarbonization of Paraffin Dehydrogenation Through Particle Heat Carriers (Final Technical Report)

This project focuses on solutions to decarbonize high-temperature catalytic processes using solar thermal heat. The primary project goal is to show the validity of a moving packed bed reactor for propane dehydrogenation using catalyst particles as the heat carrier for the reaction, which can be heated by concentrated solar energy in a particle receiver. This concept, if further developed, may provide a cost-effective pathway for converting lower value gases to important chemical precursors for industrial materials using only renewable energy. The project was divided into six tasks. In Task 1, DFT calculations were performed to understand the role of Pt and Sn in the catalytic dehydrogenation reaction. In Task 2 chemical kinetics measurements were made for several catalyst formulations at high temperatures. In Task 3, the solar absorptance of catalyst particles was compared to the absorptance of commonly used materials in particle receivers. In Task 4, numerical models were developed which could predict performance of the complete system and predict specific temperatures in the system. In Task 5, a prototype system was designed, fabricated, and tested to show the validity of the concept. Task 6 concerned project management activities. Experiments with the prototype showed repeatable thermal performance at temperatures targeted for the reaction. A limited set of tests were done with active catalyst and propane dehydrogenation, showing conversion of propane to propylene with a range of conversions and selectivities. The results are promising, and the prototype designed was reliable during testing, and the team expects that further development of the prototype would yield improved results. A numerical model framework based on coupled fluid and particle mechanics was developed with high computational efficiency using GPU calculations. The model may prove highly useful for evaluating other high-temperature particle systems. However, it was determined that simpler porous media models were good fits for the needs of the current moving packed bed concept. Data showing strong solar absorption of the particles validates the plan of using existing solar particle receivers with only a change in the particle type. Catalyst investigation showed that Pt 1 Sn 3 is the most viable candidate for developing PtSn catalysts for high temperature propane dehydrogenation, considering the balance of activity, selectivity, and deactivation. This project completed an initial study of various factors needed to incorporate a moving bed catalytic reactor for propane dehydrogenation into a concentrated solar thermal particle system. Future developments may allow this technology to be scaled up and help to use solar thermal energy to decarbonize not only the propane dehydrogenation reaction, but other gas-solid catalytic reactions at similar temperatures.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Empirical Comparison of Machine Learning Approaches for Black-Box Modeling of Power Conversion System Dynamics

Inverter-based resources are key components in modern power systems, but accurately modeling their complex behavior can be challenging. Standard, generic converter models often oversimplify inverter dynamics, leading to significant errors in predicting performance. In this work, we compare several data-driven machine learning (ML) approaches for inverter modeling, performing experiments on power conversion systems, systematically varying input conditions, and recording the resulting voltages and currents. The ML models were then trained on this measured data to capture the inverter's dynamic response and to predict the inverter's output current. A performance comparison between the four ML models under study is conducted, laying the foundation for future work on hardware implementation for real-time inference.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Model orthogonalization and Bayesian forecast mixing via principal component analysis

One can improve predictability in the unknown domain by combining forecasts of imperfect complex computational models using a Bayesian statistical machine learning framework. In many cases, however, the models used in the mixing process are similar. In addition to contaminating the model space, the existence of such similar, or even redundant, models during the multimodeling process can result in misinterpretation of results and deterioration of predictive performance. In this paper we describe a method based on the principal component analysis that eliminates model redundancy. We show that by adding model orthogonalization to the proposed Bayesian model combination framework, one can arrive at better prediction accuracy and reach excellent uncertainty quantification performance.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-27428-DND

Hypersonic aerodynamic uncertainties can have a significant influence on the predicted performance of the Entry, Decent and Landing (EDL) phases for an atmospheric entry vehicle. - Particularly for vehicles using a ballistic (un-guided) entry. - Clearly demonstrated by the effect some uncertainties can have on the location and size of the predicted landing footprint. It is the job of the flight mechanics engineer is to consolidate all environmental and vehicle models (along with their uncertainties) at his/her disposal into a simulation to provide the best possible estimate of the vehicle performance. As is often the case, however, the prediction is only be as good as the models and inputs used to develop that prediction.

Robert Maddock↗