Prospects for prediction of zonal wind oscillations
The existence of an index cycle, a quasi-periodic oscillation in the strength of the zonal wind intensity, would offer the possibility of predicting an important atmospheric feature over the period of at least one oscillation. To determine whether such a cycle exists, daily time series of several different atmospheric variables for the period November 1-April 30 for 1974-1977 were assembled. Here, the height of the 500 mb surface at latitudes 60 N and 30 N is considered. It is shown that (1) there is evidence that an index cycle exists, (2) there is theoretical reason to expect multiply periodic atmospheric flow patterns, and (3) a relatively simple, dynamically sound prediction scheme can be proposed.