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At least 667 records · Page 37

Estimating Climatological Bias Errors for the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP)

A procedure is described to estimate bias errors for mean precipitation by using multiple estimates from different algorithms, satellite sources, and merged products. The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) monthly product is used as a base precipitation estimate, with other input products included when they are within +/- 50% of the GPCP estimates on a zonal-mean basis (ocean and land separately). The standard deviation s of the included products is then taken to be the estimated systematic, or bias, error. The results allow one to examine monthly climatologies and the annual climatology, producing maps of estimated bias errors, zonal-mean errors, and estimated errors over large areas such as ocean and land for both the tropics and the globe. For ocean areas, where there is the largest question as to absolute magnitude of precipitation, the analysis shows spatial variations in the estimated bias errors, indicating areas where one should have more or less confidence in the mean precipitation estimates. In the tropics, relative bias error estimates (s/m, where m is the mean precipitation) over the eastern Pacific Ocean are as large as 20%, as compared with 10%-15% in the western Pacific part of the ITCZ. An examination of latitudinal differences over ocean clearly shows an increase in estimated bias error at higher latitudes, reaching up to 50%. Over land, the error estimates also locate regions of potential problems in the tropics and larger cold-season errors at high latitudes that are due to snow. An empirical technique to area average the gridded errors (s) is described that allows one to make error estimates for arbitrary areas and for the tropics and the globe (land and ocean separately, and combined). Over the tropics this calculation leads to a relative error estimate for tropical land and ocean combined of 7%, which is considered to be an upper bound because of the lack of sign-of-the-error canceling when integrating over different areas with a different number of input products. For the globe the calculated relative error estimate from this study is about 9%, which is also probably a slight overestimate. These tropical and global estimated bias errors provide one estimate of the current state of knowledge of the planet's mean precipitation.

Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP)↗

Improved simulation of extreme precipitation in a high-resolution atmosphere model

Climate models often underestimate the magnitude of extreme precipitation. We compare the performance of a high-resolution (~0.25°) time-slice atmospheric simulation (1979–2005) of the Community Earth System Model 1.0 in representing daily extreme precipitation events against those of the same model at lower resolutions (~1° and 2°). We find significant increases in the simulated levels of daily extreme precipitation over Europe, the United States, and Australia. In many cases the increase in high percentiles (>95th) of daily precipitation leads to better agreement with observational data sets. For lower percentiles, we find that increasing resolution does not significantly increase values of simulated precipitation. We argue that the reduced biases mainly result from the higher resolution models resolving more key physical processes controlling heavy precipitation. Lastly, we conclude that while high resolution is vital for accurately simulating extreme precipitation, considerable biases remain at the highest available model resolutions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Toward reconciling the influence of atmospheric aerosols and greenhouse gases on light precipitation changes in Eastern China

The attribution of the widely observed shifted precipitation extremes to different forcing agents represents a critical issue for understanding of changes in the hydrological cycle. To compare aerosol and greenhouse-gas effects on the historical trends of precipitation intensity, we performed AMIP-style NCAR/DOE CAM5 model simulations from 1950-2005 with and without anthropogenic aerosol forcings. Precipitation rates at every time step in CAM5 are used to construct precipitation probability distribution functions. By contrasting the two sets of experiments, we found that the global warming induced by the accumulating greenhouse gases is responsible for the changes in precipitation intensity at the global scale. However, regionally over the Eastern China, the drastic increase in anthropogenic aerosols primarily accounts for the observed light precipitation suppression since the 1950s. Here, compared with aerosol radiative effects, aerosol microphysical effect has a predominant role in determining the historical trends of precipitation intensity in Eastern China.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A hierarchical analysis of the impact of methodological decisions on statistical downscaling of daily precipitation and air temperatures

Despite the widespread application of statistical downscaling tools, uncertainty remains regarding the role of model formulation in determining model skill for daily maximum and minimum temperature (Tmax and Tmin), and precipitation occurrence and intensity. Impacts of several key aspects of statistical transfer function form on model skill are evaluated using a framework resistant to model overspecification. We focus on: (a) model structure: simple (generalized linear models, GLMs) versus complex (artificial neural networks, ANNs) models. (b) Predictor selection: Fixed number of predictors chosen a priori versus stepwise selection of predictors and inclusion of grid point values versus predictors derived from application of principal components analysis (PCA) to spatial fields. We also examine the influence of domain size on model performance. For precipitation downscaling, we consider the role of the threshold used to characterize a wet day and apply three approaches (Poisson and Gamma distributions in GLM and ANN) to downscale wet-day precipitation amounts. While no downscaling formulation is optimal for all predictands and at 10 locations representing diverse U.S. climates, and due to the exclusion of variance inflation all of the downscaling formulations fail to reproduce the range of observed variability, models with larger suites of prospective predictors generally have higher skill. For temperature downscaling, ANNs generally outperform GLM, with greater improvements for T min than T max . Furthermore, use of PCA-derived predictors does not systematically improve model skill, but does improve skill for temperature extremes. Model skill for precipitation occurrence generally increases as the wet-day threshold increases and models using PCA-derived predictors tend to outperform those based on grid cell predictors. Each model for wet-day precipitation intensity overestimates annual total precipitation and underestimates the proportion derived from extreme precipitation events, but ANN-based models and those with larger predictor suites tend to have the smallest bias.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Stress field and interaction forces between dislocations and precipitate distributions

A computational method is developed for calculation of the stress field and interaction forces between dislocations and precipitates of arbitrary shape and distribution. The internal stress generated by precipitates due to coherency strain is implemented within the discrete dislocation dynamics (DDD) framework. The s-version finite element method (s-FEM), which models a precipitate of arbitrary shape using a local mesh is used to calculate coherency stress fields. The method facilitates meshing precipitate volumes of arbitrary geometry, and multiple local meshes can be superimposed at various positions of the global mesh. Accuracy and convergence conditions of the method are established. For a single precipiate, the method is shown to be 3.5 times faster than a standard FEM calculation for the same accuracy, and the gain in speed increases with the number of precipitates. The CRSS of spherical precipitates is found to be higher than disk-shaped precipitates of the same volume fraction.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Long-term single-column model intercomparison of diurnal cycle of precipitation over midlatitude and tropical land

General Circulation Models (GCMs) have for decades exhibited difficulties in modelling the diurnal cycle of precipitation (DCP). This issue can be related to inappropriate representation of the processes controlling sub-diurnal phenomena like convection. In this study, 11 single-column versions of GCMs are used to investigate the interactions between convection and environmental conditions, processes that control nocturnal convections, and the transition from shallow to deep convection on a diurnal time-scale. Long-term simulations are performed over two continental land sites: the Southern Great Plains (SGP) in the USA for 12 summer months from 2004 to 2015 and the Manacapuru site at the central Amazon (MAO) in Brazil for two full years from 2014 to 2015. The analysis is done on two regimes: afternoon convective regime and nocturnal precipitation regime. Most models produce afternoon precipitation too early, likely due to the missing transition of shallow-to-deep convection in these models. At SGP, the unified convection schemes better simulate the onset time of precipitation. At MAO, models produce the heating peak in a much lower level compared with observation, indicating too shallow convection in the models. For nocturnal precipitation, models that produce most of nocturnal precipitation all allow convection to be triggered above the boundary layer. This indicates the importance of model capability to detect elevated convection for simulating nocturnal precipitation. Sensitivity studies indicate that (a) nudging environmental variables towards observations has a minor impact on DCP, (b) unified treatment of shallow and deep convection and the capability to capture mid-level convection can help models better capture DCP, and (c) the interactions of the atmosphere with other components in the climate system (e.g. land) are also important for DCP simulations in coupled models. Finally, these results provide long-term statistical insights on which physical processes are essential in climate models to simulate DCP.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Diagnosing added value of convection-permitting regional models using precipitation event identification and tracking

Dynamical downscaling with high-resolution regional climate models may offer the possibility of realistically reproducing precipitation and weather events in climate simulations. As resolutions fall to order kilometers, the use of explicit rather than parametrized convection may offer even greater fidelity. However, these increased resolutions both allow and require increasingly complex diagnostics for evaluating model fidelity. Here we focus on precipitation evaluation and analyze five 2-month-long dynamically downscaled model runs over the continental United States that employ different convective and microphysics parameterizations, including one high-resolution convection-permitting simulation. All model runs use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model driven by National Center for Environmental Prediction reanalysis data. We show that employing a novel rainstorm identification and tracking algorithm that allocates essentially all rainfall to individual precipitation events allows new insights into model biases. Results include that, at least in these runs, model wet bias is driven by excessive areal extent of individual precipitating events, and that the effect is time-dependent, producing excessive diurnal cycle amplitude. This amplified cycle is driven not by new production of events but by excessive daytime enlargement of long-lived precipitation events. Here, we further show that in the domain average, precipitation biases appear best represented as additive offsets. Of all model configurations evaluated, convection-permitting simulations most consistently reduced biases in precipitation event characteristics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Experimental and numerical analysis of parallel reactant flow and transverse mixing with mineral precipitation in homogeneous and heterogeneous porous media

Formation of mineral precipitates in the mixing interface between two reactant solutions flowing in parallel in porous media is governed by reactant mixing by diffusion and dispersion and is coupled to changes in porosity/permeability due to precipitation. The spatial and temporal distribution of mixing-dependent precipitation of barium sulfate in porous media was investigated with side-by-side injection of barium chloride and sodium sulfate solutions in thin rectangular flow cells packed with quartz sand. The results for homogeneous sand beds were compared to beds with higher or lower permeability inclusions positioned in the path of the mixing zone. In the homogeneous and high permeability inclusion experiments, BaSO 4 precipitate (barite) formed in a narrow deposit along the length and in the center of the solution–solution mixing zone even though dispersion was enhanced within, and downstream of, the high permeability inclusion. In the low permeability inclusion experiment, the deflected BaSO 4 precipitation zone broadened around one side and downstream of the inclusion and was observed to migrate laterally toward the sulfate solution. A continuum-scale fully coupled reactive transport model that simultaneously solves the nonlinear governing equations for fluid flow, transport of reactants and geochemical reactions was used to simulate the experiments and provide insight into mechanisms underlying the experimental observations. Lastly, migration of the precipitation zone in the low permeability inclusion experiment could be explained by the coupling effects among fluid flow, reactant transport and localized mineral precipitation reaction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Projected Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Over the United States, Central America, and the Caribbean in CMIP6 GCMs

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) dataset is used to examine projected changes in temperature and precipitation over the United States (U.S.), Central America and the Caribbean. The changes are computed using an ensemble of 31 models for three future time slices (2021–2040, 2041–2060, and 2080–2099) relative to the reference period (1995–2014) under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs; SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5). The CMIP6 ensemble reproduces the observed annual cycle and distribution of mean annual temperature and precipitation with biases between – 0.93 and 1.27 °C and – 37.90 to 58.45%, respectively, for most of the region. However, modeled precipitation is too large over the western and Midwestern U.S. during winter and spring and over the North American monsoon region in summer, while too small over southern Central America. Temperature is projected to increase over the entire domain under all three SSPs, by as much as 6 °C under SSP5-8.5, and with more pronounced increases in the northern latitudes over the regions that receive snow in the present climate. Annual precipitation projections for the end of the twenty-first century have more uncertainty, as expected, and exhibit a meridional dipole-like pattern, with precipitation increasing by 10–30% over much of the U.S. and decreasing by 10–40% over Central America and the Caribbean, especially over the monsoon region. Seasonally, precipitation over the eastern and central subregions is projected to increase during winter and spring and decrease during summer and autumn. Over the monsoon region and Central America, precipitation is projected to decrease in all seasons except autumn. The analysis was repeated on a subset of 9 models with the best performance in the reference period; however, no significant difference was found, suggesting that model bias is not strongly influencing the projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

MX precipitate behavior in an irradiated advanced Fe-9Cr steel: Helium effects on phase stability

As part of an ongoing series aimed at optimizing Fe-9Cr reduced activation ferritic/martensitic (RAFM) alloys for fusion energy systems, this study explores MX precipitate behavior under dual-ion irradiations, specifically examining correlations between helium transmutation and irradiation-induced damage. Utilizing single and dual-beam ion irradiation, the research explores the combined effects of helium (10–25 appm He/dpa), temperature (400–600 °C), and damage levels (15–100 dpa) on the microstructural evolution of CNA9 steel, a variant of Castable Nanostructured Alloys (CNAs). The study demonstrates that helium co-implantation hinders radiation-enhanced coarsening of MX-TiC precipitates at 500 and 600 °C, maintaining MX-TiC precipitate stability at moderate damage levels (15 dpa) but failing to prevent complete precipitate dissolution at higher damage levels (≥50 dpa) when irradiated at 500 °C. Here, a generalized precipitate stability model suggests that helium-induced suppression of diffusion alters the balance between recoil resolution and back diffusion for MX-TiC precipitates, enhancing the current understanding of precipitate behavior under damage and transmutation simulated dual-ion irradiation conditions.

Characterization↗

Using θ' interfaces as templates for planar L1 2 precipitation in AlCuMnZr alloys

Controlled Mn and Zr additions to Al-Cu alloys have allowed for the improved retention of mechanical properties after extended 350°C exposures by stabilizing the main strengthening θ' (Al 2 Cu) phase. Ultimately, θ'/L1 2 (Al 3 Zr) co-precipitate formation stabilizes θ' most effectively; however, Zr diffuses sluggishly and has low solubility in aluminum castings. Increasing the Zr segregation rate would allow for faster and more effective θ'/L1 2 co-precipitation. It is demonstrated that the Zr segregation rate is faster when the Zr matrix content is higher. A much higher Zr matrix content was achieved by rapid cooling during additive manufacturing (AM) that produces θ'/L1 2 co-precipitation faster, which is shown by scanning transmission electron microscopy and atom probe tomography experiments. It was also found that Zr continuously segregates to θ' interfaces up to the most aggressive heat treatment studied such that planar L1 2 precipitates remain after the metastable θ' dissolves. In this manner, we demonstrate that θ' coherent interfaces serve as perfect templates to form stable planar L1 2 precipitates that can provide strength at higher temperatures than traditional θ' strengthened AlCu alloys. This work introduces an alloy design strategy that uses metastable precipitates to quickly nucleate and grow co-precipitates with a desired geometry that contain slow diffusing elements. These ideas can be applied to engineer more heat resistant alloys by taking advantage of high solute matrix contents enabled by rapid cooling during additive manufacturing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Formation and redox reactivity of ferrihydrite-organic carbon-calcium co-precipitates

Complexation with minerals plays a critical role in regulating the stability of organic matter. The presence of cations is assumed to be important for the complexation between organic matter and minerals, but there is still limited direct analysis for the formation and reactivity of mineral-organic matter-cation ternary complexes, as well as governing factors for the fate of minerals and organic matter in the complexes. In order to close this knowledge gap, we investigated the formation and reactivity of ferrihydrite (Fh)-organic carbon (OC)-calcium (Ca) ternary co-precipitates. We performed microbial anaerobic Fe reduction using Shewanella putrefaciens CN32 on synthesized Fh-OC-Ca co-precipitates and characterized OC and Fe minerals using various spectroscopic and wet chemistry techniques. We discovered that Ca incorporated into the co-precipitate was a function of OC/iron (Fe) ratio, but OC incorporation was not impacted by the Ca content. During the reduction, the presence of Ca favored the formation of green rust but decreased the formation of magnetite and siderite in co-precipitates with high OC content. The reduction of Fe and reductive release of Fe-bound OC were controlled primarily by the C/Fe ratio, rather than Ca/Fe ratio. Phenolic OC was preferentially released or degraded during the reduction compared to aromatic and carboxylic OC. Collectively, C/Ca incorporation data, Fe K-edge extended X-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) analysis for co-precipitates before and after reduction, and the reductive release of Ca and OC suggest the formation of Fh-OC-Ca ternary co-precipitates, likely with OC as bridges. The reduction of Fe and reductive release of OC were primarily controlled by the C/Fe ratio, whereas the presence of Ca affected the mineral phase transformation for Fh during the reduction of Fe. Thus, our results provide novel understanding for the formation and reactivity of Ca-based ternary co-precipitates, which can be valuable for building up process-based models for cycles of carbon and metals.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Precipitation regime classification for the Mojave Desert: Implications for fire occurrence

Mojave Desert ecosystem processes are dependent upon the amount and seasonality of precipitation. Multi-decadal periods of drought or above-average rainfall affect landscape vegetation condition, biomass and susceptibility to fire. The seasonality of precipitation events can also affect the likelihood of lightning, a key ignition source for fires. To develop an understanding of precipitation regimes and fire patterns we used monthly average precipitation data and GIS data representing burned areas from 1971-2010. We applied a K-means cluster analysis to the monthly precipitation data identifying three distinct precipitation seasons; winter (October – March), spring (April-June) and summer (July-September) and four discrete precipitation regimes within the Mojave ecoregion.

classification↗

Facilitated Strontium Transport by Remobilization of Strontium-Containing Secondary Precipitates in Hanford Site Subsurface

Significantly enhanced immobilization of radionuclides (such as 90Sr and 137Cs) due to adsorption and coprecipitation with neo-formed colloid-sized secondary precipitates has been reported at the U.S. Department of Energy’s Hanford Site. However, the stability of these secondary precipitates containing radionuclides in the subsurface under changeable field conditions is not clear. Here, the authors tested the remobilization possibility of Sr containing secondary precipitates (nitrate-cancrinite) in the subsurface using saturated column experiments under different geochemical and flow conditions. The columns were packed with quartz sand that contained secondary precipitates (nitrate-cancrinite containing Sr), and leached using colloid-free solutions under different flow rates, varying pH, and ionic strength conditions. The results indicate remobilization of the neo-formed secondary precipitates could be possible given a change of background conditions. The remobility of the neo formed precipitates increased with the rise in the leaching solution flow rate and pH (in a range of pH 4 to 11), as well as with decreasing solution ionic strength. The increased mobility of Sr-containing secondary precipitates with changing background conditions can be a potential source for additional radionuclide transport in Hanford Site subsurface environments.

colloid↗

Precipitation extremes over La Plata Basin – Review and new results from observations and climate simulations

Monthly and daily precipitation extremes over La Plata Basin (LPB) are analyzed in the framework of the CLARIS-LPB Project. A review of the studies developed during the project and results of additional research are presented and discussed. Specific aspects of analysis are focused on large-scale versus local processes impacts on the intensity and frequency of precipitation extremes over LPB, and on the assessment of specific wet and dry spell indices and their changed characteristics in future climate scenarios. The analysis is shown for both available observations of precipitation in the region and ad-hoc global and regional models experiments. The Pacific, Indian and Atlantic Oceans can all impact precipitation intensity and frequency over LPB. In particular, considering the Pacific sector, different types of ENSO events (i.e. canonical vs Modoki or East vs Central) have different influences. Moreover, model projections indicate an increase in the frequency of precipitation extremes over LPB during El Niño and La Ninã events in future climate. Local forcings can also be important for precipitation extremes. Here, the feedbacks between soil moisture and extreme precipitation in LPB are discussed based on hydric conditions in the region and model sensitivity experiments. Concerning droughts, it was found that they were more frequent in the western than in the eastern sector of LPB during the period of 1962–2008. On the other hand, observations and model experiments agree in that the monthly wet extremes were more frequent than the dry extremes in the northern and southern LPB sectors during the period 1979–2001, with higher frequency in the south.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hydrologic applicability of satellite-based precipitation estimates for irrigation water management in the data-scarce region

Reliable precipitation estimates are crucial for planning and managing water resources, monitoring hydrologic extremes, and fulfilling irrigation water requirements. Accurate precipitation estimates are particularly challenging in complex mountain terrains, where monitoring gauges are often sparsely distributed due to their remote locations, and high installation and long-term operation costs. Recent advances in satellite-based precipitation estimates offer promising opportunities to improve our understanding of hydrologic processes and their applications for irrigation water management. Several datasets are available varying considerably in terms of their data sources, quality control methods, estimation procedure, and spatiotemporal resolutions. Choosing the most suitable dataset for a particular application is a complex task. In this study, we (1) evaluate the performance of six satellite-based precipitation estimates (SPEs): i) CHIRPS v2.0, ii) CMORPH v1.0, iii) ERA5, iv) IMERG v6, v) MSWEP v2.8, and vi) PERSIANN-CDR against the gauge precipitation using continuous statistical and categorical indices, (2) integrate SPEs with a calibrated semi-distributed hydrologic model to predict streamflow, and (3) demonstrate practical implications of improved streamflow prediction for irrigation water management in the central Himalayan region, Nepal. Our results illustrate that satellite-based precipitation estimates have competitive performance in capturing a wide range of rainfall characteristics, with demonstrated variability across river basins and time scales. Further, there are no significant discrepancies observed in satellite-based precipitation estimates for estimating irrigation water requirements for the three major crops (maize, wheat, and paddy) during the cropping period across the selected river basins, showing a greater promise for irrigation water management planning and decision making.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comparative quantification and statistical analysis of η′ and η precipitates in aluminum alloy AA7075-T651 by TEM and AFM

Quantification of nanometric precipitates in metallic alloys has been traditionally performed using transmission electron microscopy, which is nominally a low throughput technique. This work presents a comparative study of quantification of η′ and η precipitates in aluminum alloy AA7075-T651 using transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and non-contact atomic force microscopy (AFM). AFM quantification was compared with 2-D stereological results reported elsewhere. Also, a method was developed, using specialized software, to characterize nanometric size precipitates observed in dark-field TEM micrographs. Statistical analysis of the quantification results from both measurement techniques supports the use of AFM for precipitate characterization. Once the precipitate stoichiometry has been determined by appropriate analytical techniques like TEM, as it is the case for η′ and η in AA7075-T651, the relative ease with which specimens are prepared for AFM analysis could be advantageous in product and process development, and quality control, where a large number of samples are expected for analysis on a regular basis. - Highlights: • Nanometric MgZn{sub 2} precipitates in AA7075-T651 were characterized using AFM and TEM. • Phase-contrast AFM was used to differentiate metal matrix from MgZn{sub 2} precipitates. • TEM and AFM micrographs were analyzed using commercially available software. • AFM image analysis and TEM 2-D stereology render statistically equivalent results.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Influence of powder metallurgy route on precipitation processes in MgTbNd alloy

Solution treated MgTb3Nd2 alloy (nominal composition in wt.%) (ST) and the alloy prepared by hot extrusion of isostatically pressed powder (PM) were isochronally heat treated and studied by electrical resistivity and hardness measurements and by differential scanning calorimetry. Microstructure development was investigated in transmission electron microscopy. Successive precipitation of transient phases in the sequence β″ (D0{sub 19} plates) → β′(cbco) → β{sub 1} (Mg{sub 3}Gd type, fcc) → β (Mg{sub 5}Gd type, fcc) known from the ST alloy was identified also in the PM alloy. The early precipitation stage (D0{sub 19} clusters) revealed in the ST alloy as well as precipitation of equilibrium β{sub e} phase Mg{sub 41}(Tb,Nd){sub 5} manifest themselves only slightly in the PM alloy. Powder metallurgy route does not change the values of activation energies but shifts the temperature ranges of these processes. Vickers hardness of the as prepared state is higher in the PM alloy and is very resistant against the heat treatment up to 510 °C. Contrary to the ST alloy precipitation due to isochronal annealing does not lead to pronounced hardness changes in the PM alloy. - Highlights: • Powder metallurgy (PM) does not change precipitation sequence in MgTbNd alloy. • Temperature ranges of transient phase precipitations are shifted in PM alloy. • Hardness is resistant against isochronal heat treatment up to 510 °C in the PM alloy. • PM procedure does not change activation energies of precipitation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗