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At least 667 records · Page 37

Total Ozone Trends from 1979 to 2016 Derived from Five Merged Observational Datasets - The Emergence into Ozone Recovery

We report on updated trends using different merged datasets from satellite and ground-based observations for the period from 1979 to 2016. Trends were determined by applying a multiple linear regression (MLR) to annual mean zonal mean data. Merged datasets used here include NASA MOD v8.6 and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) merge v8.6, both based on data from the series of Solar Backscatter UltraViolet (SBUV) and SBUV-2 satellite instruments (1978–present) as well as the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME)-type Total Ozone (GTO) and GOME-SCIAMACHY-GOME-2 (GSG) merged datasets (1995-present), mainly comprising satellite data from GOME, the Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Chartography (SCIAMACHY), and GOME-2A. The fifth dataset consists of the monthly mean zonal mean data from ground-based measurements collected at World Ozone and UV Data Center (WOUDC). The addition of four more years of data since the last World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ozone assessment (2013-2016) shows that for most datasets and regions the trends since the stratospheric halogen reached its maximum (approximately 1996 globally and approximately 2000 in polar regions) are mostly not significantly different from zero. However, for some latitudes, in particular the Southern Hemisphere extratropics and Northern Hemisphere subtropics, several datasets show small positive trends of slightly below +1 percent decade(exp. -1) that are barely statistically significant at the 2 Sigma uncertainty level. In the tropics, only two datasets show significant trends of +0.5 to +0.8 percent(exp.-1), while the others show near-zero trends. Positive trends since 2000 have been observed over Antarctica in September, but near-zero trends are found in October as well as in March over the Arctic. Uncertainties due to possible drifts between the datasets, from the merging procedure used to combine satellite datasets and related to the low sampling of ground-based data, are not accounted for in the trend analysis. Consequently, the retrieved trends can be only considered to be at the brink of becoming significant, but there are indications that we are about to emerge into the expected recovery phase. However, the recent trends are still considerably masked by the observed large year-to-year dynamical variability in total ozone.

column ozone trends↗

Development of the European Service Module Propulsion Subsystem for the Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle

Hardware Heritage Schedule limitations and budget constraints drove the need for extensive use of heritage hardware designs. In some cases (OMS and TVC) flight hardware reuse (from Shuttle) was required,and will be delta-qualified for use on Orion Primary sources of heritage: ATV Shuttle Orion CM PSS Ariane 5 EPS Targeted Development Testing Component development testing was performed to address the highest risk areas of heritage design compliance with Orion requirements Assembly level development testing was performed to understand complex assemblies and component interactions Heritage Direct re-use of assets from Shuttle Orbiters, all assets have varying flight history. Orion Use Used by Orion to gimbal the main engine during major translational maneuvers Development Testing Random vibration on controller box (lead to card retention design mod) Design Changes (only as required) Circuit board retention in controller box (single instance from Shuttle flight history) New, longer harnesses Basic Specs(8) fixed position engines Thrust: 105 lbf Nozzle area ratio: 164:1 Orion Use Nominally used for separation maneuvers and mid-course correction maneuvers In contingency scenario (failed main engine), used for major translational maneuvers Drives the need for long continuous duration firing Drives the need for off-pulsing (to steer) Control authority requires 50 duty cycle Development Testing Random Vibration (added vibration isolation bracket) Hot fire, duty cycle (changed MR)

pressure fed↗

Design and Performance of a Hybrid-Electric Fuel Cell Flight Demonstration Concept

As electric powertrain and propulsion-airframe integration technologies advance, airborne electric propulsion concepts appear to be on the cusp of disrupting or transforming aviation markets. One of the many challenges to this transformation lies within the onboard energy storage and generation technologies. State-of-the-art battery technology is heavy and lacks support infrastructure; purely combustion-based solutions to electrical power generation suffer from increased inefficiency as compared to a traditional combustion powertrain. This paper explores another alternative: a hybrid-electric, solid oxide fuel cell power system. This power system reforms traditional fuels to feed fuel cells that generate electrical power for the aircraft electric powertrain. A representative power system is designed based on the requirements for NASA’s X-57 Mod II electric flight demonstrator platform, and is shown to exceed system feasibility goals of 300 W/kg and 60% efficiency in at least one configuration. The hybrid-electric fuel cell power system is shown to be competitive with the range performance of a combustion-based power architecture and comparable in mission energy cost to a battery-electric power system.

Borer, Nicholas K.↗

Thermoviscoelastic modelling of high strain thin-ply composites by means of multiscale plate and beam model

High strain thin-ply (HS-TPC) technology is being increasingly adopted for high-performanceaerospace applications. Albeit many of these structures such as deployable booms can bemodeled as one-dimensional beam problems, there is a lack of themoviscoelastic beam mod-els to efficiently and accurately simulate HS-TPC. This work will use mechanics of struc-ture genome (MSG) to construct linear thermoviscoelastic beam models that can homogenizethree-dimensional heterogeneous materials made of constituents with time- and temperature-dependent behavior. The formulation derives the transient strain energy based on integralformulation for thermorheologically simple materials subject to finite temperature changeswith the restriction that the strain is small. A lenticular boom is used as a numerical exampleto verify the MSG-based linear thermoviscoelastic beam model against MSG-based shell/platemodel, which has already been validated against experimental data provided by NASA, anddirect numerical simulations performed in a finite element commercial package.

Orzuri Rique Garaizar↗

Convolutional Encoding of Self-Dual Codes

Self-dual block codes of rate 1/2 are constructed here, The codes are of length 8m with weights w, w = 0 mod 4. The codes have a convolutional portion of length 8m-2 and non-systematic information length 4m-1.

self↗

CARACaS multi-agent maritime autonomy for unmanned surface vehicles in the Swarm II harbor patrol demonstration

This paper describes new autonomy technology that enabled a team of unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) to execute cooperative behaviors in the USV Swarm II harbor patrol demonstration and provides a description of autonomy performance in the event. The new developments extend the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory’s CARACaS (Control Architecture for Robotic Agent Command and Sensing) autonomy architecture, which pro- vides foundational software infrastructure, core executive functions, and several default robotic technology mod- ules. In Swarm II, CARACaS demonstrated higher levels of autonomy and more complex cooperation than previous on-water exercises, using full-sized vehicles and real-world sensing and communication. The core au- tonomous behaviors to support the harbor patrol scenario included Patrol, Track, Inspect, and Trail, providing the capability of finding all vessels entering the patrol area, keeping track of them, inspecting them to infer intent, and trailing suspect vessels. Significantly, CARACaS assumed responsibility for not only executing tasks safely and efficiently but also recognizing what tasks needed to be accomplished, given the current state of the world. Since the heterogeneous USV teams shared world model that evolved, such as due to (dis)appearance of vessels in the area or a change in health or availability of a USV, CARACaS replanned to generate and reallocate the new task list. Thus, human intervention was never required in the loop to task USVs during mission execution, though a supervisory role was supported in the autonomy system for mission monitoring and exception handling. Finally, CARACaS also ensured the USVs avoided hazards and obeyed the applicable rules of the road, using its local motion planning modules.

Sandoval, Michael↗

NASA’s MODIS/VIIRS Global Water Reservoir Product Suite from Moderate Resolution Remote Sensing Data

Global reservoir information can not only benefit local water management but can also improve our understanding of the hydrological cycle. This information includes water area, elevation, and storage; evaporation rate and volume values; and other characteristics. However, operational wall-to-wall reservoir storage and evaporation monitoring information is lacking on a global scale. Here we introduce NASA’s new MODIS/VIIRS Global Water Reservoir product suite based on moderate resolution remote sensing data—the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS). This product consists of 8-day (MxD28C2 and VNP28C2) and monthly (MxD28C3 and VNP28C3) measurements for 164 large reservoirs (MxD stands for the product from both Terra (MOD) or Aqua (MYD) satellites). The 8-day product provides area, elevation, and storage values, which were generated by first extracting water areas from surface reflectance data and then applying the area estimations to the pre-established Area–Elevation (A–E) relationships. These values were then further aggregated to monthly, with the evaporation rate and volume information added. The evaporation rate and volume values were calculated after the Lake Temperature and Evaporation Model (LTEM) using MODIS/VIIRS land surface temperature product and meteorological data from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). Validation results show that the 250 m area classifications from MODIS agree well with the high-resolution classifications from Landsat (R^(2) = 0.99). Validation of elevation and storage products for twelve Indian reservoirs show good agreement in terms of R^(2) values (0.71–0.96 for elevation, and 0.79–0.96 for storage) and normalized root-mean-square error (NRMSE) values (5.08–19.34% for elevation, and 6.39–18.77% for storage). The evaporation rate results for two reservoirs (Lake Nasser and Lake Mead) agree well with in situ measurements (R^(2) values of 0.61 and 0.66, and NRMSE values of 16.25% and 21.76%). Furthermore, preliminary results from the VIIRS reservoir product have shown good consistency with the MODIS based product, confirming the continuity of this 20-year product suite. This new global water reservoir product suite can provide valuable information with regard to water-sources-related studies, applications, management, and hydrological modeling and change analysis such as drought monitoring.

Yao Li↗

Semi-Analytic Forecasts for JWST– V. AGN Luminosity Functions and Helium Reionization at z= 2–7

Active galactic nuclei (AGN) forming in the early universe are thought to be the pri-mary source of hard ionizing photons contributing to the reionization of intergalactic helium. However, the number density and spectral properties of high-redshift AGN remain largely unconstrained. In this work, we make use of physically-informed mod-els calibrated with a wide variety of available observations to provide estimates for the role of AGN throughout the Epoch of Reionization. We present AGN luminosity functions in various bands between z= 2 to 7 predicted by the well-established Santa Cruz semi-analytic model, which includes modelling of black hole accretion and AGN feedback. We then combine the predicted AGN populations with a physical spectral model for self-consistent estimates of ionizing photon production rates, which depend on the mass and accretion rate of the accreting supermassive black hole. We then couple the predicted comoving ionizing emissivity with an analytic model to compute the subsequent reionization history of intergalactic helium and hydrogen. This work demonstrates the potential of coupling physically motivated analytic or semi-analytic techniques to capture multi-scale physical processes across a vast range of scales (here, from AGN accretion disks to cosmological scales). Our physical model predicts an in-trinsic ionizing photon budget well above many of the estimates in the literature, meaning that helium reionization can comfortably be accomplished even with a rel-atively low escape fraction. We also make predictions for the AGN populations that are expected to be detected in future James Webb Space Telescope surveys

L Y Aaron Yung↗

Global Total Ozone Recovery Trends Attributed to Ozone-Depleting Substance (ODS) Changes Derived From Five Merged Ozone Datasets

We report on updated trends using different merged zonal mean total ozone datasets from satellite and ground-based observations for the period from 1979 to 2020. This work is an update of the trends reported in Weber et al. (2018) using the same datasets up to 2016. Merged datasets used in this study include NASA MOD v8.7 and NOAA Cohesive Data (COH) v8.6, both based on data from the series of Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV), SBUV-2, and Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS) satellite instruments (1978–present), as well as the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME)-type Total Ozone – Essential Climate Variable (GTO-ECV) and GOME-SCIAMACHY-GOME-2 (GSG) merged datasets (both 1995–present), mainly comprising satellite data from GOME, SCIAMACHY, OMI, GOME-2A, GOME-2B, and TROPOMI. The fifth dataset consists of the annual mean zonal mean data from ground-based measurements collected at the World Ozone and Ultraviolet Radiation Data Centre (WOUDC). Trends were determined by applying a multiple linear regression (MLR) to annual mean zonal mean data. The addition of 4 more years consolidated the fact that total ozone is indeed slowly recovering in both hemispheres as a result of phasing out ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) as mandated by the Montreal Protocol. The near-global (60° S–60° N) ODS-related ozone trend of the median of all datasets after 1995 was 0.4 ± 0.2 (2σ) %/decade, which is roughly a third of the decreasing rate of 1.5 ± 0.6 %/decade from 1978 until 1995. The ratio of decline and increase is nearly identical to that of the EESC (equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine or stratospheric halogen) change rates before and after 1995, confirming the success of the Montreal Protocol. The observed total ozone time series are also in very good agreement with the median of 17 chemistry climate models from CCMI-1 (Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative Phase 1) with current ODS and GHG (greenhouse gas) scenarios (REF-C2 scenario). The positive ODS-related trends in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) after 1995 are only obtained with a sufficient number of terms in the MLR accounting properly for dynamical ozone changes (Brewer–Dobson circulation, Arctic Oscillation (AO), and Antarctic Oscillation (AAO)). A standard MLR (limited to solar, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), volcanic, and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)) leads to zero trends, showing that the small positive ODS-related trends have been balanced by negative trend contributions from atmospheric dynamics, resulting in nearly constant total ozone levels since 2000.

Total Column Ozone Trends↗

Space Shuttle Program Dual Docked Operations

Due to the ever-increasing visiting vehicle traffic to and from the International Space Station (ISS) during mated Orbiter/ISS missions, it became apparent to both the ISS Program (ISSP) and the Space Shuttle program (SSP) that there would arise occasions where a visiting vehicle docking and/or undocking could overlap when the Space Shuttle Orbiter was docked to the ISS, referred to as Dual Docked Operations (DDO). The primary concerns were that plumes from the visiting vehicles would cause contamination, corrosion, and erosion to Space Shuttle surfaces and present a toxicity hazard to ground personnel when processing the Space Shuttle after landing. This potential conflict provided the genesis for evaluating risk mitigations to gain maximum flexibility for managing potential visiting vehicle traffic to and from the ISS and to maximize launch and landing opportunities for all visiting vehicles. The overarching goal of this effort was to assess the viability and readiness of the SSP to protect for DDO on any given mission. To assess the viability of performing DDO, the ISSP delivered plume particle fluence (i.e., number of particles per unit area) and contamination deposition based on the visiting vehicle’s proximity operations to the SSP for evaluation. This paper summarizes the concept definition, studies, and analysis results generated by the SSP, ISSP, and Mission Operations Directorate (MOD) for implementing DDO involving the Orbiter and Russian vehicles (RVs). Discussion and results presented herein represent a generic assessment of the SSP and ISSP integrated safety and technical evaluations of DDO involving the Orbiter and RVs. Mission-specific analysis and operational impacts were conducted flight-by-flight as they arose.

Launch vehicles↗

Landslide Likelihood Prediction using Machine Learning Algorithms

The supply of electricity via power plants is criticalto the operation of many critical infrastructure systems in mod-ern society. Natural hazards can disrupt the power supply, causepower outages that can halt economic growth, and impede emer-gency response until power is restored. The proposed work aimsto predict the landslides likelihood in these critical infrastructurelocations in the Northeastern USA using integrated databases ofexplanatory variables and machine learning algorithms. First,data related to landslides are obtained and merged, includingtopographic, soil moisture, and precipitation-related data. Fiveregression algorithms, namely: Random Forest, Extreme Gradi-ent Boosting (XGBoost), K-Nearest Neighbor regression (KNN),Linear Support Vector Regressor (SVR), and Linear regression,are utilized to predict the landslide probability and evaluatedon the dataset. The accuracy of the models is assessed by usingstatistical metrics such as mean absolute error (MAE), meansquared error (MSE), and root mean squared error (RMSE).The study results show that Random Forest outperformed othermodels with the mutual information feature selection method.It achieved an MSE of 0.0011 with mutual information-basedfeature selection and an MSE of 0.00157 without feature selection.KNN regressor outperformed the other models with an MSEof 0.00139 with correlation-based information selection. Theproposed landslide identification model with Random Forestalgorithm shows outstanding robustness and great potential intackling the landslide likelihood prediction by employing MLalgorithms.

Vasundhara Acharya↗

Overview of Ablation Modeling at NASA

The ambitious scientific payload and crew delivery goals of imminent and future NASA missions are associated with challenging and complex vehicle entries. Advanced ablative Thermal Protection System (TPS) materials will be re- quired for such missions, and, as such, a robust ablation modeling capability is critical to assessing performance by bridging the wide gap between ground testing and entry conditions. The traditional ablation modeling toolset - contin- uum thermal/materials response analysis - has grown recently to include high-fidelity, multi-scale, and multi-physics techniques that provide a more complete description of the rich physics and chemistry of ablation to better drive down risks related to extreme entries. The present talk provides a snapshot of ongoing NASA activities in ablation mod- eling, including a review of the current technical capabilities and tools at play within the Agency, the important role academia plays in supporting technical area advancements, and how such internal and external investments intersect with upcoming missions to drive down risks.

Justin Haskins↗

X-57 Maxwell Aircraft

X-57 Project Need - Advance the Nation's ability to design, test, and determine airworthiness of distributed electric and aero-propulsive coupling technologies, which are a critical enabler of emerging, advanced air mobility markets. - The value of X-57 lies in advancing hte Nation's ability to design, test, and certify electric aircraft, which will enable entirely new markets - The Mod II flight test program is a pathfinder for the experimental propulsion system performance and reliability to reduce the risk in the X-57 configuration.

Heather Maliska↗

Computational Analysis on the Effects of High-lift Propellers and Wingtip Cruise Propellers on X-57 Airplane

This study presents the computational study of the effects of high-lift system and wingtip-mounted cruise propellers on the flow physics and forces and moments of the X-57 Mod III/Mod IV configuration. Results were compared against previously published data on the powered-off configuration to determine the performance benefit. Simulations were performed using four different computational fluid dynamics solvers: STAR-CCM+, Launch Ascent Vehicle Aerodynamics, Kestrel, and USM3D. The high-lift system was shown to increase lift and lift-curve slope of the airplane. Additionally, the high-lift system was shown to increase the maximum lift coefficient and improve flow separation behavior at high anglesof-attack. Wingtip-mounted cruise propellers were shown to decrease the drag of the airplane. Simulation results showed that the drag decreased with increased thrust generated by the wingtip cruise propellers. The primary factor of the decrease in drag was a result of reduction in pressure drag of the wing. At the thrust setting of 230.1 lbf, results showed a reduction of 49-drag counts.

Seung Y. Yoo↗

X-57 Maxwell Aircraft EMI/EMC Integration Lessons Learned

X-57 Project Need - Advance the Nation's ability to design, test, and determine airworthiness of distributed electric and aero-propulsive coupling technologies, which are a critical enabler of emerging, advanced air mobility markets. - The value of X-57 lies in advancing hte Nation's ability to design, test, and certify electric aircraft, which will enable entirely new markets - The Mod II flight test program is a pathfinder for the experimental propulsion system performance and reliability to reduce the risk in the X-57 configuration.

Heather Maliska↗

The Impact of Atmospheric Dynamics and Anthropogenic Very Short-Lived Chlorine Species on the Recovery of Extra-Polar Ozone

The successful implementation of the Montreal Protocol has led to a decrease in the atmospheric abundance of ozone-depleting substances and a slowing in the destruction of the ozone layer. Previous studies have suggested that atmospheric dynamics, or a rise in compounds not regulated by the Montreal Protocol, such as very short-lived chlorine species (VSL Cl), may lead to a slower than expected recovery of the ozone layer. In this presentation, we examine the expected recovery of total column ozone (TCO) and stratospheric column ozone (SCO) to values observed in 1980 using a novel multiple linear regression (MLR) model that involves a month-by-month regression. The MLR model is trained to TCO anomalies from six data records (SBUV v8.7 MOD, SBUV v8.6 COH, WOUDC, GSG, GTO-ECV, MSR-2) over 1979 to 2021 for the Northern Hemisphere (35N – 60N), the Southern Hemisphere (60S – 35S) and the Tropics (20S – 20N), and SCO anomalies from ML-TOMCAT for these same zonal bands. The MLR includes the effect of halogens (equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC)), total solar irradiance, stratospheric aerosol optical depth, quasi-biennial oscillation, and the El Niño Southern Oscillation as regressors. We also include the effect of atmospheric dynamics such as the Brewer-Dobson Circulation, Arctic Oscillation, and the Antarctic Oscillation, and VSL Cl species in the formulation of EESC. We use a novel approach to the MLR framework, by separating the observed and regressor time series into the respective months (separating all of the Januarys, Februarys, etc.). Then we conduct a regression for each month from 1979 to 2021 for the three zonal bands denoted above. The model results for each month are combined together to achieve a full monthly time series from 1979 to 2021. We use this novel approach to ascertain the effect of atmospheric dynamics on TCO and SCO, since the dynamical proxies affect ozone in a distinctly different manner for various months. In this presentation, we will quantify the role of both the inclusion of VSL Cl species in the formulation of EESC as well as atmospheric dynamics in explaining the slower than expected recovery of extra-polar TCO and SCO over the past decade.

Laura A. McBride↗

Assessment of Long-term Trends in the Collection 4 Total Ozone Record from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument

Long-term changes in total ozone affect the amount of harmful UV radiation reaching Earth’s surface and reflect progress made towards recovery of stratospheric ozone. Satellite total ozone data are also used to estimate long-term trends in tropospheric ozone, a reactive and potent greenhouse gas, by subtracting the stratospheric column timeseries from that of total ozone. For these scientific applications, the long-term stability should be better than 1%. Left unchecked, instrument calibration drift can produce a trend of this magnitude or greater. NASA has produced nearly twenty years of total ozone data from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) using the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) algorithm. The drift in the OMI instrument as monitored by ice radiance calibration has been relatively slow, but it has reached a level of ~3% over the mission lifetime. This drift was corrected in the recently released Collection 4 OMI calibrated radiances, updating the Collection 3 calibration released in 2006. We have reprocessed the OMI total ozone record using the Collection 4 calibration and updates to the TOMS algorithm. We summarize these changes and evaluate their impact by comparing to the previous Collection 3 OMI dataset, the Suomi NPP Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite Nadir Mapper (OMPS-NM) and Solar Backscatter UV (SBUV) Merged Ozone Dataset (MOD) total ozone records and other independent satellite total ozone datasets. Climatological radiance residuals from OMI and OMPS-NM are calculated and compared to investigate differences in spectral calibration that can cause drifts in long-term total ozone trends. We also analyze the tropospheric ozone record produced using the Collection 4 OMI total ozone and stratospheric column ozone from MLS. Collection 3 OMI data processed with the TOMS algorithm show a positive drift relative to other satellite and ground-based data of 1-2 DU per decade. Initial results show that this drift is reduced in Collection 4 OMI, due to the updated OMI calibration. In this work we will quantify the improvements in Collection 4 OMI relative to independent data sources at both the ozone and radiance level

Collection 4 OMI Total Ozone↗

Curating AI-Ready Datasets for Equity and Environmental Justice: A Data-Centric AI Case Study

An equitable and environmentally just community is essentialin order to avoid disproportionate burden borne by vulnerablecommunities. This need becomes pressing in the aftermathof an extreme event such as disaster or hazard when it is diffi-cult for the governing bodies to implement resource allocationas per the need. Artificial Intelligence (AI) algorithms canhelp surface Equity and Environmental Justice (EEJ) issueswhen trained on EEJ datasets. However, curating AI-readyEEJ training datasets is challenging due to differences in fac-tors such as heterogeneity, resolution, modality, and level ofexpertise in labeling. Additionally, EEJ issues involve sensi-tive information where uncertainties and errors could degradethe performance of AI algorithms. For eg. Error in seasonalcrop yield information can highly affect the prediction of an-nual crop yield. To address these challenges, Data-centricAI (DCAI) methods are employed, which enhance AI algo-rithm performance even with limited training samples. DCAIprioritizes data quality, thereby reducing the adverse effectsof uncertainties and errors during the model training process.This research proposes a novel dataset and benchmark for an-alyzing the effect of the Maui Wildfire of 2023 for Equityand Environmental Justice (EEJ) issues. The proposed datasetaligns with the concepts of DCAI such as annotation quality,data preprocessing, privacy, feature engineering, governanceand provenance. We firmly believe that the proposed datasetwould lay a foundation to implement robust and reliable mod-ern AI algorithms for addressing EEJ issues.

Paridhi Parajuli↗