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NASA NTRS2015

The Peculiar Behavior of Halo Coronal Mass Ejections in Solar Cycle 24

We report on the remarkable finding that the halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in cycle 24 are more abundant than in cycle 23, although the sunspot number in cycle 24 has dropped by approx. 40%. We also find that the distribution of halo-CME source locations is different in cycle 24: the longitude distribution of halos is much flatter with the number of halos originating at a central meridian distance greater than or equal to 60deg twice as large as that in cycle 23. On the other hand, the average speed and associated soft X-ray flare size are the same in both cycles, suggesting that the ambient medium into which the CMEs are ejected is significantly different. We suggest that both the higher abundance and larger central meridian longitudes of halo CMEs can be explained as a consequence of the diminished total pressure in the heliosphere in cycle 24. The reduced total pressure allows CMEs to expand more than usual making them appear as halos.

coronal mass ejections↗

NASA NTRS2017

The Scintillation Prediction Observations Research Task (SPORT): an International Science Mission Using a Cubesat

The Scintillation Prediction Observations Research Task (SPORT) is a 6U CubeSat mission to address the compelling but difficult problem of understanding the preconditions leading to equatorial plasma bubbles. The scientific literature describes the preconditions in both the plasma drifts and the density profiles related to bubble formations that occur several hours later in the evening. Most of the scientific discovery has resulted from observations at a single site, within a single longitude sector, from Jicamarca, Peru. SPORT will provide a systematic study of the state of the pre-bubble conditions at all longitudes sectors to enhance understanding between geography and magnetic geometry. SPORT is an international partnership between National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the Brazilian National Institute for Space Research (INPE), and the Technical Aeronautics Institute under the Brazilian Air Force Command Department (DCTA/ITA), and encouraged by U.S. Southern Command. This talk will present an overview of the SPORT mission, observation strategy, and science objectives to improve predictions of ionospheric disturbances that affect radio propagation of telecommunication signals. The science goals will be accomplished by a unique combination of satellite observations from a nearly circular middle inclination orbit and the extensive operation of ground based observations from South America near the magnetic equator.

Scintillation Prediction Observations↗

NASA NTRS2017

Neptune Long-Lived Atmospheric Features in 2013 - 2015 from Small (28-cm) to Large (10-m) Telescopes

Since 2013, observations of Neptune with small telescopes (28-50 cm) have resulted in several detections of long-lived bright atmospheric features that have also been observed by large telescopes such as Keck II or Hubble. The combination of both types of images allows the study of the long-term evolution of major cloud systems in the planet. In 2013 and 2014 two bright features were present on the planet at southern mid-latitudes. These may have merged in late 2014, possibly leading to the formation of a single bright feature observed during 2015 at the same latitude. This cloud system was first observed in January 2015 and nearly continuously from July to December 2015 in observations with telescopes in the 2-10-m class and in images from amateur astronomers. These images show the bright spot as a compact feature at −40.1 +/- 1.6 deg planetographic latitude well resolved from a nearby bright zonal band that extended from −42 deg to −20 deg. The size of this system depends on wavelength and varies from a longitudinal extension of 8000 +/- 900 km and latitudinal extension of 6500 +/- 900 km in Keck II images in H and Ks bands to 5100 +/- 1400 km in longitude and 4500 +/- 1400 km in latitude in HST images in 657 nm. Over July to September 2015 the structure drifted westward in longitude at a rate of 24.48 +/- 0.03 deg/day or −94 +/- 3 m/s. This is about 30 m/s slower than the zonal winds measured at the time of the Voyager 2 flyby. Tracking its motion from July to November 2015 suggests a longitudinal oscillation of 16 deg in amplitude with a 90-day period, typical of dark spots on Neptune and similar to the Great Red Spot oscillation in Jupiter. The limited time covered by high-resolution observations only covers one full oscillation and other interpretations of the changing motions could be possible. HST images in September 2015 show the presence of a dark spot at short wavelengths located in the southern flank (planetographic latitude −47.0 deg) of the bright compact cloud observed throughout 2015. The drift rate of the bright cloud and dark spot translates to a zonal speed of −87.0 +/- 2.0 m/s, which matches the Voyager 2 zonal speeds at the latitude of the dark spot. Identification of a few other features in 2015 enabled the extraction of some limited wind information over this period. This work demonstrates the need of frequently monitoring Neptune to understand its atmospheric dynamics and shows excellent opportunities for professional and amateur collaborations.

dynamics↗

NASA NTRS2014

Seasonal Evolution of Saturn's Polar Temperatures and Composition

The seasonal evolution of Saturn's polar atmospheric temperatures and hydrocarbon composition is derived from a decade of Cassini Composite Infrared Spectrometer (CIRS) 7-16 micrometers thermal infrared spectroscopy. We construct a near-continuous record of atmospheric variability poleward of 60 deg from northern winter/southern summer (2004, Ls = 293 deg) through the equinox (2009, Ls= 0 deg) to northern spring/southern autumn (2014, Ls = 56 deg). The hot tropospheric polar cyclones that are entrained by pro-grade jets within 2-3 deg of each pole, and the hexagonal shape of the north polar belt, are both persistent features throughout the decade of observations. The hexagon vertices rotated westward by approx. equal to 30 deg longitude between March 2007 and April 2013, confirming that they are not stationary in the Voyager-defined System III longitude system as previously thought. Tropospheric temperature contrasts between the cool polar zones (near 80-85 deg) and warm polar belts (near 75-80 deg) have varied in both hemispheres, resulting in changes to the vertical wind shear on the zonal jets in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. The extended region of south polar stratospheric emission has cooled dramatically poleward of the sharp temperature gradient near 75 deg S (by approximately -5 K/yr), coinciding with a depletion in the abundances of acetylene (0030 +/- 0.005 ppm/yr) and ethane (0.35 +/- 0.1 ppm/yr), and suggestive of stratospheric upwelling with vertical wind speeds of w approx. equal to +0.1 mm/s. The upwelling appears most intense within 5 deg latitude of the south pole. This is mirrored by a general warming of the northern polar stratosphere (+5 K/yr) and an enhancement in acetylene (0.030 +/- 0.003 ppm/yr) and ethane (0.45 +/- 0.1 ppm/yr) abundances that appears to be most intense poleward of 75 deg N, suggesting subsidence at w approx. equal to -0.15 mm/ s. However, the sharp gradient in stratospheric emission expected to form near 75 deg N by northern summer solstice (2017, Ls = 90 deg) has not yet been observed, so we continue to await the development of a northern summer stratospheric vortex. The peak stratospheric warming in the north occurs at lower pressure levels (p less than 1 mbar) than the peak stratospheric cooling in the south (p greater than 1 mbar). Vertical motions are derived from both the temperature field (using the measured rates of temperature change and the deviations from the expectations of radiative equilibrium models) and hydrocarbon distributions (solving the continuity equation). Vertical velocities tend towards zero in the upper troposphere where seasonal temperature contrasts are smaller, except within the tropospheric polar cyclones where w approx. equal to +0.02 mm/s. North polar minima in tropospheric and stratospheric temperatures were detected in 2008-2010 (lagging one season, or 6-8 years, behind winter solstice); south polar maxima appear to have occurred before the start of the Cassini observations (1-2 years after summer solstice), consistent with the expectations of radiative climate models. The influence of dynamics implies that the coldest winter temperatures occur in the 75-80 deg region in the stratosphere, and in the cool polar zones in the troposphere, rather than at the poles themselves. In addition to vertical motions, we propose that the UV-absorbent polar stratospheric aerosols entrained within Saturn's vortices contribute significantly to the radiative budget at the poles, adding to the localized enhancement in the south polar cooling and north polar warming poleward of +/-75 deg.

polar temperatures↗

NASA NTRS2012

The Origin and Evolution of Saturn's 2011-2012 Stratospheric Vortex

The planet-encircling springtime storm in Saturn's troposphere (December 2010-July 2011, Fletcher, L.N. et al. [2011]. Science 332, 1413-1414; Sánchez-Lavega, A. et al. [2011]. Nature 475, 71-74; Fischer, G. et al. [2011]. Nature 475, 75-77) produced dramatic perturbations to stratospheric temperatures, winds and composition at mbar pressures that persisted long after the tropospheric disturbance had abated. Thermal infrared (IR) spectroscopy from the Cassini Composite Infrared Spectrometer (CIRS), supported by ground-based IR imaging from the VISIR instrument on the Very Large Telescope and the MIRSI instrument on NASA's IRTF, is used to track the evolution of a large, hot stratospheric anticyclone between January 2011 and March 2012. The evolutionary sequence can be divided into three phases: (I) the formation and intensification of two distinct warm airmasses near 0.5 mbar between 25 and 35degN (B1 and B2) between January-April 2011, moving westward with different zonal velocities, B1 residing directly above the convective tropospheric storm head; (II) the merging of the warm airmasses to form the large single 'stratospheric beacon' near 40degN (B0) between April and June 2011, disassociated from the storm head and at a higher pressure (2 mbar) than the original beacons, a downward shift of 1.4 scale heights (approximately 85 km) post-merger; and (III) the mature phase characterised by slow cooling (0.11 +/- 0.01 K/day) and longitudinal shrinkage of the anticyclone since July 2011. Peak temperatures of 221.6 +/- 1.4 K at 2 mbar were measured on May 5th 2011 immediately after the merger, some 80 K warmer than the quiescent surroundings. From July 2011 to the time of writing, B0 remained as a long-lived stable stratospheric phenomenon at 2 mbar, moving west with a near-constant velocity of 2.70 +/- 0.04 deg/day (24.5 +/- 0.4 m/s at 40degN relative to System III longitudes). No perturbations to visible clouds and hazes were detected during this period. With no direct tracers of motion in the stratosphere, we use thermal windshear calculations to estimate clockwise peripheral velocities of 200-400 m/s at 2 mbar around B0. The peripheral velocities of the two original airmasses were smaller (70-140 m/s). In August 2011, the size of the vortex as defined by the peripheral collar was 65deg longitude (50,000 km in diameter) and 25deg latitude. Stratospheric acetylene (C2H2) was uniformly enhanced by a factor of three within the vortex, whereas ethane (C2H6) remained unaffected. The passage of B0 generated a new band of warm stratospheric emission at 0.5 mbar at its northern edge, and there are hints of warm stratospheric structures associated with the beacons at higher altitudes (p < 0.1 mbar) than can be reliably observed by CIRS nadir spectroscopy. Analysis of the zonal windshear suggests that Rossby wave perturbations from the convective storm could have propagated vertically into the stratosphere at this point in Saturn's seasonal cycle, one possible source of energy for the formation of these stratospheric anticyclones.

evolution↗

NASA NTRS2019

GOES-16 Magnetometers Anomaly Solar-Angle Based Characterization and Correction

GOES-R launched aboard an Atlas V 541 rocket from Space Launch Complex-41 at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Florida, on November 19, 2016. The first satellite in the series, GOES-R, was renamed GOES-16 upon reaching geostationary orbit GOES-16 at GOES-Checkout location (89.5 degrees West Longitude) during PLT (Post-Launch Testing). The GOES-16 magnetometer boom was deployed on December 7, 2016 and magnetometer checkout began. GOES-16 replaced GOES-13 as NOAA's operational GOES-East satellite on December 18, 2017. The GOES-16 satellite operational location (GOES-East) is at 75.2 degrees West Longitude.

Magnetometers↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Toward an Integrated Product of Higher Accuracy and Longer Time Span: Improvement of the Upcoming NASA GEWEX SRB Data Release 4 over Release 3 Based on Validation Against Surface-Based Measurements

The NASA Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX) Surface Radiation Budget (SRB) is moving toward its next generation, the Release 4 Integrated Product (Rel. 4-IP), and its shortwave algorithm preliminary results as of this writing span 34 years continuously from July 1983 to June 2017 on a quasi-equal-area grid system with 44,016 gridboxes ranging from 1 longitude times 1 latitude around the Equator to 120 longitude times 1 latitude. The data are in the form of 3-hourly, 3-hourly-monthly, daily and monthly means. The Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) is a project of the Data and Assessments Panel from the GEWEX under the umbrella of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Currently in the archive there are data from 67 sites located in all seven continents spanning from 1992 to the very present. The original BSRN records are at 1-, 2-, 3- or 5-minute intervals, and sophisticated quality-control procedures have been developed to eliminate erroneous records before hourly, daily and monthly means are computed. The Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL) arrays of buoys in the tropical oceans, TAO/TRITON (Pacific Ocean), RAMA (Indian Ocean) and PITARA (Atlantic Ocean), measure shortwave downward fluxes using pyranometers. These buoys transmit measured data to shore in real-time via the Argos satellite system. And these buoys are major components of the CLIVAR climate analysis project and the GOOS, GCOS, and GEOSS observing systems. So far there are data from 64 buoys and the earliest data start from 2000. We have extensively validated the Rel. 4-IP preliminary results against the BSRN and PMEL 3-hourly, daily and monthly means. In this paper, we will show that the new results not only temporally span 10 years longer than its predecessor, Release 3, but agree significantly better with the BSRN data over the land and PMEL data over the ocean.

Taiping Zhang↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

VALENTInE: A Concept for a New Frontiers Class Long Duration In-Situ Balloon Mission to Venus

Venus and Earth are similar in bulk composition, size, density, and approximate distance from the Sun, yet Venus’s modern-day climate and surface geology is distinctly different [1]. Previous missions to Venus revealed unusual volcanic features, possible continental crust, widespread volcanic plains, a weak magnetic field [2], and insights into the Venusian atmosphere [3,4]. Unfortunately, data from these missions were limited in spatial and temporal resolution and global extent. A future mission to Venus is critical to address fundamental questions surrounding the chemical composition and dynamics of the Venusian atmosphere [5], its geologic history [6,7], its internal structure [8,9], and its habitability throughout time [10,11]. We present the Venus Air and Land Expedition: a Novel Trailblazer for In situ Exploration (VALENTInE) mission to meet this need. VALENTInE is a variable altitude balloon that will passively float in Venus’s atmosphere between 45 and 55 km altitude. VALENTInE will acquire atmospheric data at varying latitudes and longitudes in addition to mapping the surface geomorphology and mineralogy across multiple terrains. Mission Objectives: The VALENTInE mission concept is driven by four main science objectives: 1. Determine whether the driving force of the superrotation of Venus’s atmosphere is caused by horizontal or vertical momentum transport. 2. Determine whether the atmospheric composition and noble gas inventory of the Venusian atmosphere is a product of outgassing from the initial protoplanetary source or if there are significant contributions from exogenic sources. 3. Determine whether the tesserae regions (particularly Aphrodite Terra) are felsic and relatively older than surrounding regions. 4. Determine if there is any evidence of a recent dynamo preserved in the rock record of Venus. Mission Overview: A balloon architecture provides a robust system that can survive long-term in the Venusian environment while taking accurate measurements of the lower cloud deck and surface. Two prior balloon missions to Venus, VEGA 1 and VEGA 2 in 1984, have demonstrated the potential for such planetary exploration; however, these missions were short-lived (46 hr), with limited range (54 km). Our spacecraft concept consists of a battery powered balloon with a gondola and flyby carrier stage (Fig. 1). Our novel design allows for at least 15 days of atmospheric exploration, including multiple ascents and descents in the Venus atmosphere. VALENTInE is baselined to launch in 2032, cruise on solar power for 128 days, enter, descend, and inflate (EDI) into Venus’s atmosphere above Aphrodite Terra, and float in Venus’s atmosphere for a total nominal mission duration of 15 days. The balloon, able to control its altitude by changing its buoyancy, will make one full circumnavigation every 4–8 days and move poleward ~1 o latitude per day; it will be passively directed by the horizontal air currents on Venus. The balloon can only be controlled in the z direction, and the expected latitude range is ±10° from EDI. The balloon itself will be a tracer for atmospheric structures such as zonal winds [5, 12]. During the 15-day operational period, there will be five dips to 45 km for a compositional study of the lower atmosphere and geological and magnetic mapping of the surface. Dips are used to take images and measurements closer to the surface and to obtain in situ vertical atmospheric profiles between 45 and 55 km. Instruments: The VALENTInE instrument payload will allow for extensive study of the geology, atmosphere, and interior of Venus. The instrument suite consists of six instruments. The mission profile for each instrument is shown in Fig. 2. Lower Atmosphere Meteorology Analyzer (LAMA) is an atmospheric structure instrument consisting of a thermometer, barometer, and accelerometer to continuously measure temperature and pressure as a function of altitude, longitude, and latitude. TracE and Noble Gas Investigator (TENGI) is aneutral mass spectrometer used to sample the dense atmosphere. TENGI will operate continuously at 45 km and 55 km and will measure D/H ratios, as well as Ne, Ar, and O isotopic ratios. Kilometer Scale Spectral Imager (KSSI) is amultispectral imager (850-1150 nm) used to resolve surface features on the order of km. Near InfraRed Multispectral Photometer (NIRMP) is an Infrared (IR) photometer used to image the surface through the clouds to characterize mineral assemblages at five different areas of the surface. NIRMP will be operated during dwell. ELevation REConnaissance (ELREC) is a light detection and ranging (LIDAR) instrument used for measuring topography at five different areas of the surface. The ELREC data will be combined with those of NIRMP to determine mineral assemblages and how they correlate to topography. Magnetic Exploration and Interior Detective (MEID) is a magnetometer used to detect any near-surface magnetic anomalies. The magnetometer will continuously operate at all altitudes. Mission Design: The spacecraft’s propulsion system will have a wet mass of 930 kg and will be launched on an Atlas V rocket. The spacecraft will jettison the payload upon arrival in Venus’s atmosphere before decelerating to orbital velocity. Figure 2. Notional power-dip profile while the balloon is on the dayside. Risks and Challenges: Raising and lowering the spacecraft to dip beneath the haze layer require a large amount of energy. This issue was partly compensated by limiting the number of dips over the 15 day prime mission. Power needs for pumping helium are reduced by slowing the descent speed, which consequently increases spatial resolution of in situ measurements between 45 and 55 km. The main limitation for the duration of the mission is the need to carry 15 days’ worth of batteries. The bus experiences external Venusian temperatures ranging from ~27°C at 55 km altitude to ~110°C at 45 km altitude. These high atmospheric temperatures require thermal protection for the bus (instruments, electronics, and flight systems) during its descent, dwell at 45 km, and ascent. The bus is maintained at a mechanically safe temperature range of -10°C to 50°C using white external paint, multi-layer insulation (MLI), mechanical/thermal isolation (e.g. Ti, composites), and ~57 kg of Phase Change Materials (PCM). Images and spectra taken below the haze dominate the available data transmission regardless of the time spent at 45 km. Therefore, less time at the lower altitude mainly reduces the coverage of in situ measurements there. Further, we assumed an unrealistically low-density material for the helium storage tanks on the gondola. However, this issue is partially resolved if we were to jettison 75% of the spent helium storage tanks. After the entry process, the balloon volume remains mostly inflated and storage tanks are required only for reducing balloon volume in dipping to 45 km. This mission was planned against an expected New Frontiers 5 (NF5) cost cap of $1B, as the NF5 call had not yet been released. The mission we describe fits within the predicted cost cap if the flyby carrier stage, responsible for powering the spacecraft during cruise and for relaying in situ measurements back to Earth, can be contributed by another space agency. Acknowledgments: We thank the JPL Planetary Science Summer School, especially A. Nash, J. Scully, K. Mitchell, L. Lowes, and J. Armijo, and our mentors from JPL Team X. Thank you to our review panel for their insightful review. References: [1] Kane, S. et al. (2019) JGR:Ps, 124 , 2015–2028. [2] Phillips, J. L., & Russell, C. T. (1987). JGR: Space Physics , 92 (A3), 2253-2263. [3] Nakamura, M. et al. (2018) Earth Planets Space, 70 (1), 144. [4] Svedhem, H. et al. (2009) JGR:P 114 (E5). [5] Limaye et al. (2009) Decadal Survey White Paper . [6] Ivanov, M. and Head, J. (2011) PSS, 59 (13) , 1559-1600. [7] Smrekar, S. et al. (2018) Space Sci Rev, 214 (5), 88. [8] O’Rourke, J. et al. (2018) EPSL, 502 , 46-56. [9] O’Rourke J. et al. (2019) GRL , (46), 5768–5777 [10] Way, M. et al. (2016) GRL, 43 (16), 8376-8383. [11] Way, M. et al. (2020) JGR:P, 125 (5), e2019JE006276. [12] Preston, R. A. et al. (1986) Science, 231 (4744), 1414-1416.

Mission Concept↗

NASA NTRS2020

Global Distribution and 14-Year Changes in Erythemal Irradiance, UV Atmospheric Transmission, and Total Column Ozone 2005 – 2018 Estimated from OMI and EPIC Observations

Satellite data from the Ozone Measuring Instrument (OMI) and Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC) are used to study changes and global distribution of UV erythemal irradiance in mW/m(exp 2) E(ζ,φ,z,t) and the dimensionless UV index (E/25 mWm(exp 2)) over the Earth’s surface as a function of latitude ζ, longitude φ, altitude z, and time t. OMI time series data starting in January 2005 to December 2018 are used to estimate 14-year changes in erythemal irradiance, total column ozone TCO3, scene reflectivity LER, and aerosol absorption τA at specific land sites in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres using publicly available OMI data. Estimates of changes in atmospheric transmission ΔCτ(ζ,φ,z,t) derived from OMI measured cloud and haze reflectivity show an increase between 60°S to 45°S almost no average 14-year change from 55°S to 30°N but show an increase from 35°N to 55°N. This implies increased solar insolation at higher latitudes that suggests positive feedback for global warming. Changes in aerosol absorption of UV irradiance ΔCA(ζ,φ,z,t) derived from changes in τA are mostly in the equatorial region and at higher southern latitudes resulting in correlated changes in E. TCO3 derived from OMI data has increased at a rate of 2% per decade for the latitudes between 60°S to 10°N changing to a decrease of 1% per decade between 40°N to 60°N. The result is an average decrease in E(ζ,φ,z,t) at a rate of 2% per decade in the Southern Hemisphere and an increase between 40°N to 60°N. For some specific sites (latitudes from 55°S to 45°N) there has been little or no change in E(ζ,φ,z,t) for the period 2005 – 2018. Nearly half the sites show strong correlation effects of both short- and long-term cloud and absorbing aerosol change as well as anticorrelation with total column ozone change ΔTCO3. Synoptic EPIC data from the sunlit Earth are used to derive ozone and reflectivity needed for global images of the distribution of E(ζ,φ,z,t) from sunrise to sunset centered on the Americas, Europe-Africa, and Asia. EPIC data are used to show the latitudinal distribution of E(ζ,φ,z,t) from the equator to 75° for specific longitudes. Dangerously high amounts of erythemal irradiance (12 < UV index < 18) are found for many low latitude and high-altitude sites (e.g., San Pedro, Chile (2.45 km), La Paz, Bolivia (3.78 km). Lower UV indices at some equatorial or high-altitude sites (e.g., Quito, Ecuador) are moderated by the presence of persistent cloud effects. High UVI levels (UVI > 6) are also found at most mid-latitude sites during the summer months.

Ozone Measuring Instrument (OMI) and Earth Polychr↗

NASA NTRS2021

Analysis of the long-term drift rates and oscillations of Jupiter’s largest vortices

Jupiter’s troposphere is dynamically characterized by a series of alternating eastward and westward jets. Embedded between these alternating jets, large vortices, characterized by their high speed closed circulations can be found in several latitudinal bands. The Great Red Spot (GRS) and the White Ovals (WOS) located at ≈22 and ≈30 degrees south respectively1 are the largest of these vortices. The GRS has undergone significant changes in size, coloration and maximum circumferential wind speed over the last two decades. The three WOS also experienced changes in size, and they merged over time until there was only one remaining, which since then has been formally known as oval BA. Here we used over four decades worth of data from the Database for Object Positions on Jupiter (JUPOS), to investigate the long-term mean longitudinal drift of these largest vortices, and to characterize the deviations from this mean drift. A linear fit to the GRS drift speed for the last two decades gives a rate of change of (3.1 ± 0.4)^(-3°)/day/year. For oval BA we find that its annual drift rate changed from -0.39°/day in 2016 to -0.58°/day in 2020 following a steep trend that is best fitted by a second order polynomial. Regarding oscillations, we find that for the last two decades the GRS has continued to oscillate longitudinally with the same period (90 days) and peak-to-peak amplitude (1.2 degrees longitude) as reported historically. For the WOS, the data prior to 2000 seems to indicate that they presented similar oscillations with periods of ≈158 days and peak-to-peak amplitudes of ≈1.6 degrees. The analysis of the data for oval BA since the year 2000 reveals evidence of an oscillation with a period of ≈138 days and peak-to-peak amplitude of ≈1.6 degrees longitude.

Raúl Morales-Juberías↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Global Reference Atmospheric Model (GRAM) Suite Overview and Current Status

• Engineering-oriented atmospheric models that estimate mean values and statistical variations of atmospheric properties for numerous planetary destinations • Currently available for Earth, Mars, Venus, Titan, Neptune, Uranus, and Jupiter • Outputs include atmospheric density, temperature, pressure, chemical composition, radiative fluxes (for Mars-GRAM), and wind components along a user-defined path – Includes seasonal, diurnal, geographic, and altitude variations • Widely used by the engineering community because of their ability to create realistic atmospheric dispersions • Can be integrated into high fidelity flight dynamic simulations of launch, entry, descent and landing (EDL), aerobraking and aerocapture • Optional trajectory input file consisting of time, height, latitude, and longitude can be used to provide the GRAM trajectory path • Optional auxiliary profile consisting of height, latitude, longitude, temperature, pressure, density, eastward wind, and northward wind may be used to replace model data in the GRAMs • Not a forecast model

atmospheric models↗

NASA NTRS2022

Sun Chaser - A Mission to the Earth-Sun Lagrangian Point 4

Placed at L4, Sun Chaser is a mission concept that will follow (or chase) high-energy processes around the west limb, combining solar remote sensing & in situ observations, and overseeing the entire solar radiation hemisphere. Sun Chaser’s remote sensing is essential for ~90% of current physics-based and empirical solar energetic particle (SEP) event forecasting techniques. Without Sun Chaser, there cannot be a basis for SEP event all-clear forecasting. It establishes and maintains a space weather (SWx) radiation safe zone that supports all near-term human missions to the Moon and Mars. Sun Chaser latitude in-situ coverage also provides a unique opportunity for solar wind-, interplanetary- and interstellar-dust science. In combination with existing and planned observatories at L1 and L5, the three locations provide 240° longitude coverage of resolving photospheric magnetic field structure and safe Earth-directed CME viewing. A ~14°-inclination of both L4 and L5 out of the ecliptic guarantees continuous viewing of both solar poles and continuous in-situ presence on both sides of the heliographic equator, with >3.6° elevation. Extended observations in both longitude and latitude will revolutionize global solar wind modeling and immediate validation, and enables the development of local helioseismology, with potential for long-term solar activity forecasting.

space weather↗

NASA NTRS2022

Quantifying Errors in 3D CME Parameters Derived from Synthetic Data Using White-Light Reconstruction Techniques

Current efforts in space weather forecasting of CMEs have been focused on predicting their arrival time and magnetic structure. To make these predictions, methods have been developed to derive the true CME speed, size, position, and mass, among others. Difficulties in determining the input parameters for CME forecasting models arise from the lack of direct measurements of the coronal magnetic fields and uncertainties in estimating the CME 3D geometric and kinematic parameters after eruption. White-light coronagraph images are usually employed by a variety of CME reconstruction techniques that assume more or less complex geometries. This is the first study from our International Space Science Institute (ISSI) team “Understanding Our Capabilities in Observing and Modeling Coronal Mass Ejections”, in which we explore how subjectivity affects the 3D CME parameters that are obtained from the Graduated Cylindrical Shell (GCS) reconstruction technique, which is widely used in CME research. To be able to quantify such uncertainties, the “true” values that are being fitted should be known, which are impossible to derive from observational data. We have designed two different synthetic scenarios where the “true” geometric parameters are known in order to quantify such uncertainties for the first time. We explore this by using two sets of synthetic data: 1) Using the ray-tracing option from the GCS model software itself, and 2) Using 3D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation data from the Magnetohydrodynamic Algorithm outside a Sphere code. Our experiment includes different viewing configurations using single and multiple viewpoints. CME reconstructions using a single viewpoint had the largest errors and error ranges overall for both synthetic GCS and simulated MHD white-light data. As the number of viewpoints increased from one to two, the errors decreased by approximately 4° in latitude, 22° in longitude, 14° in tilt, and 10° in half-angle. Our results quantitatively show the critical need for at least two viewpoints to be able to reduce the uncertainty in deriving CME parameters. We did not find a significant decrease in errors when going from two to three viewpoints for our specific hypothetical three spacecraft scenario using synthetic GCS white-light data. As we expected, considering all configurations and numbers of viewpoints, the mean absolute errors in the measured CME parameters are generally significantly higher in the case of the simulated MHD white-light data compared to those from the synthetic white-light images generated by the GCS model. We found the following CME parameter error bars as a starting point for quantifying the minimum error in CME parameters from white-light reconstructions: Δθ (latitude)=6° +2° -3° , Δϕ (longitude)=11° +18° -6° , Δγ (tilt)=25° +8° -7° , Δx (half-angle)=10° +12° -6° , Δh (height)=0.6 +1.2 -0.4 R ⨀ , and Δκ (ratio)=0.1 +0.03 -0.02 .

Coronal mass ejections↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Status of Venus Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Venus-GRAM) Upgrades

Venus-GRAM Overview - Engineering-oriented atmospheric model that estimates mean values and statistical variations of Venus atmospheric properties - Outputs include atmospheric density, temperature, pressure, chemical composition, and wind components along a user-defined path - Widely used by the engineering community because of its ability to create realistic atmospheric dispersions - Can be integrated into high fidelity flight dynamic simulations of launch, entry, descent and landing (EDL), aerobraking and aerocapture - Has been used in multiple studies and proposals including NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) Autonomous Aerobraking Study and various Discovery proposals - Optional trajectory input file consisting of time, height, latitude, and longitude can be used to provide the Venus-GRAM trajectory path - Optional auxiliary profile consisting of height, latitude, longitude, temperature, pressure, density, eastward wind, and northward wind may be used to replace model data in Venus-GRAM - Not a forecast model - GRAMs are also available for Earth, Mars, Titan, Neptune, Uranus, and Jupiter - Available through the NASA Software Catalog https://software.nasa.gov/software/MFS-33888-1

atmospheric models↗

NASA NTRS2016

Transit Timing Variations for Planets Near Eccentricity-Type Mean Motion Resonances

We derive the transit timing variations (TTVs) of two planets near a second-order mean motion resonance (MMR) on nearly circular orbits. We show that the TTVs of each planet are given by sinusoids with a frequency of jn(sub 2) - ( j - 2)n(sub 1), where j ≽ 3 is an integer characterizing the resonance and n(sub 2) and n(sub 1) are the mean motions of the outer and inner planets, respectively. The amplitude of the TTV depends on the mass of the perturbing planet, relative to the mass of the star, and on both the eccentricities and longitudes of pericenter of each planet. The TTVs of the two planets are approximated anti-correlated, with phases of ϕ and ≈ϕ + π, where the phase ϕ also depends on the eccentricities and longitudes of pericenter. Therefore, the TTVs caused by proximity to a second-order MMR do not in general uniquely determine both planet masses, eccentricities, and pericenters. This is completely analogous to the case of TTVs induced by two planets near a first-order MMR. We explore how other TTV signals, such as the short-period synodic TTV or a first-order resonant TTV, in combination with the second-order resonant TTV, can break degeneracies. Finally, we derive approximate formulae for the TTVs of planets near any order eccentricity-type MMR; this shows that the same basic sinusoidal TTV structure holds for all eccentricity-type resonances. Our general formula reduces to previously derived results near first-order MMRs.

Celestial mechanics↗

NASA NTRS2022

Ensemble Simulations of the 2012 July 12 Coronal Mass Ejection with the Constant-turn Flux Rope Model

Flux-rope-based magnetohydrodynamic modeling of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is a promising tool for prediction of the CME arrival time and magnetic field at Earth. In this work, we introduce a constant-turn flux rope model and use it to simulate the 2012 July 12 16:48 CME in the inner heliosphere. We constrain the initial parameters of this CME using the graduated cylindrical shell (GCS) model and the reconnected flux in posteruption arcades. We correctly reproduce all the magnetic field components of the CME at Earth, with an arrival time error of approximately 1 hr. We further estimate the average subjective uncertainties in the GCS fittings by comparing the GCS parameters of 56 CMEs reported in multiple studies and catalogs. We determined that the GCS estimates of the CME latitude, longitude, tilt, and speed have average uncertainties of 5°.74, 11°.23, 24°.71, and 11.4%, respectively. Using these, we have created 77 ensemble members for the 2012 July 12 CME. We found that 55% of our ensemble members correctly reproduce the sign of the magnetic field components at Earth. We also determined that the uncertainties in GCS fitting can widen the CME arrival time prediction window to about 12 hr for the 2012 July 12 CME. On investigating the forecast accuracy introduced by the uncertainties in individual GCS parameters, we conclude that the half-angle and aspect ratio have little impact on the predicted magnetic field of the 2012 July 12 CME, whereas the uncertainties in longitude and tilt can introduce relatively large spread in the magnetic field predicted at Earth.

Talwinder Singh↗

NASA NTRS2022

Patches of Magnetic Switchbacks and Their Origins

Parker Solar Probe (PSP) has shown that the solar wind in the inner heliosphere is characterized by the quasi omnipresence of magnetic switchbacks ("switchback" hereinafter), local backward bends of magnetic field lines. Switchbacks also tend to come in patches, with a large-scale modulation that appears to have a spatial scale size comparable to supergranulation on the Sun. Here we inspect data from the first 10 encounters of PSP focusing on different time intervals when clear switchback patches were observed by PSP. We show that the switchbacks modulation, on a timescale of several hours, seems to be independent of whether PSP is near perihelion, when it rapidly traverses large swaths of longitude remaining at the same heliocentric distance, or near the radial-scan part of its orbit, when PSP hovers over the same longitude on the Sun while rapidly moving radially inwards or outwards. This implies that switchback patches must also have an intrinsically temporal modulation most probably originating at the Sun. Between two consecutive patches, the magnetic field is usually very quiescent with weak fluctuations. We compare various parameters between the quiescent intervals and the switchback intervals. The results show that the quiescent intervals are typically less Alfvénic than switchback intervals, and the magnetic power spectrum is usually shallower in quiescent intervals. We propose that the temporal modulation of switchback patches may be related to the "breathing" of emerging flux that appears in images as the formation of "bubbles" below prominences in the Hinode/SOT observations.

Solar wind↗

NASA NTRS2022

Quantifying Errors in 3D CME Parameters Derived From Synthetic Data Using White-Light Reconstruction Techniques

Coronal mass ejections↗