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NASA NTRS2016

User's Manual: Routines for Radiative Heat Transfer and Thermometry

Determining the intensity and spectral distribution of radiation emanating from a heated surface has applications in many areas of science and engineering. Areas of research in which the quantification of spectral radiation is used routinely include thermal radiation heat transfer, infrared signature analysis, and radiation thermometry. In the analysis of radiation, it is helpful to be able to predict the radiative intensity and the spectral distribution of the emitted energy. Presented in this report is a set of routines written in Microsoft Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) (Microsoft Corporation, Redmond, Washington) and incorporating functions specific to Microsoft Excel (Microsoft Corporation, Redmond, Washington) that are useful for predicting the radiative behavior of heated surfaces. These routines include functions for calculating quantities of primary importance to engineers and scientists. In addition, the routines also provide the capability to use such information to determine surface temperatures from spectral intensities and for calculating the sensitivity of the surface temperature measurements to unknowns in the input parameters.

opticoelectronic devices↗

NASA NTRS2016

Adjoint-Based Aerodynamic Design of Complex Aerospace Configurations

An overview of twenty years of adjoint-based aerodynamic design research at NASA Langley Research Center is presented. Adjoint-based algorithms provide a powerful tool for efficient sensitivity analysis of complex large-scale computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations. Unlike alternative approaches for which computational expense generally scales with the number of design parameters, adjoint techniques yield sensitivity derivatives of a simulation output with respect to all input parameters at the cost of a single additional simulation. With modern large-scale CFD applications often requiring millions of compute hours for a single analysis, the efficiency afforded by adjoint methods is critical in realizing a computationally tractable design optimization capability for such applications.

Nielsen, Eric J.↗

NASA NTRS2021

A Machine Learning Approach to Objective Identification of Dust in Satellite Imagery

Airborne dust has broad adverse effects on human activity, including aviation, human health, and agriculture. Remote sensing observations are used to detect dust and aerosols in the atmosphere using long established techniques. False color Red-Green-Blue (RGB) imagery using band differences sensitive to dust absorption (Dust RGB) is currently used operationally to assist forecasters and decision-makers in identifying dust at night, but there are still limitations, subjectivity, and nuances to image interpretation making night-time dust identification difficult even for experts. This study applies machine learning to the problem of night-time dust detection with a simple random forest (RF) model using Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-16 (GOES-16) Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) infrared imagery, band differences sensitive to dust absorption, and Dust RGB color components as inputs to the model. The RF model achieves an Area-Under-Curve (AUC) of 0.97 with a standard deviation of 0.04 for dust cases. For images with dust present, the model correctly labels 85% of dust pixels and 99.96% of no-dust pixels for all dust images in the validation data set. The addition of a single null case to the training data set drastically reduces error in labeling no-dust pixels as dust from 45% to 14.5%. Application of the machine learning model to the April 13–14, 2019 dust event demonstrates the ability of the model to identify dust during night-time hours when visual dust detection is limited by the cooling ground surface characteristics.

dust↗

DOE OSTI2016

iTOUGH2 v7.1

iTOUGH2 (inverse TOUGH2) provides inverse modeling capabilities for TOUGH2, a simulator for multi-dimensional, multi-phase, multi-component, non-isothermal flow and transport in fractured porous media. iTOUGH2 performs sensitivity analyses, data-worth analyses, parameter estimation, and uncertainty propagation analyses in geosciences and reservoir engineering and other application areas. iTOUGH2 supports a number of different combinations of fluids and components (equation-of-state (EOS) modules). In addition, the optimization routines implemented in iTOUGH2 can also be used for sensitivity analysis, automatic model calibration, and uncertainty quantification of any external code that uses text-based input and output files using the PEST protocol. iTOUGH2 solves the inverse problem by minimizing a non-linear objective function of the weighted differences between model output and the corresponding observations. Multiple minimization algorithms (derivative-free, gradient-based, and second-order; local and global) are available. iTOUGH2 also performs Latin Hypercube Monte Carlo simulations for uncertainty propagation analyses. A detailed residual and error analysis is provided. This upgrade includes (a) global sensitivity analysis methods, (b) dynamic memory allocation (c) additional input features and output analyses, (d) increased forward simulation capabilities, (e) parallel execution on multicore PCs and Linux clusters, and (f) bug fixes.

Finsterle, Stefan↗

DOE OSTI2016

Application of Monte Carlo Methods to Perform Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis on Inverse Water-Rock Reactions with NETPATH

Methods were developed to quantify uncertainty and sensitivity for NETPATH inverse water-rock reaction models and to calculate dissolved inorganic carbon, carbon-14 groundwater travel times. The NETPATH models calculate upgradient groundwater mixing fractions that produce the downgradient target water chemistry along with amounts of mineral phases that are either precipitated or dissolved. Carbon-14 groundwater travel times are calculated based on the upgradient source-water fractions, carbonate mineral phase changes, and isotopic fractionation. Custom scripts and statistical code were developed for this study to facilitate modifying input parameters, running the NETPATH simulations, extracting relevant output, postprocessing the results, and producing graphs and summaries. The scripts read userspecified values for each constituent’s coefficient of variation, distribution, sensitivity parameter, maximum dissolution or precipitation amounts, and number of Monte Carlo simulations. Monte Carlo methods for analysis of parametric uncertainty assign a distribution to each uncertain variable, sample from those distributions, and evaluate the ensemble output. The uncertainty in input affected the variability of outputs, namely source-water mixing, phase dissolution and precipitation amounts, and carbon-14 travel time. Although NETPATH may provide models that satisfy the constraints, it is up to the geochemist to determine whether the results are geochemically reasonable. Two example water-rock reaction models from previous geochemical reports were considered in this study. Sensitivity analysis was also conducted to evaluate the change in output caused by a small change in input, one constituent at a time. Results were standardized to allow for sensitivity comparisons across all inputs, which results in a representative value for each scenario. The approach yielded insight into the uncertainty in water-rock reactions and travel times. For example, there was little variation in source-water fraction between the deterministic and Monte Carlo approaches, and therefore, little variation in travel times between approaches. Sensitivity analysis proved very useful for identifying the most important input constraints (dissolved-ion concentrations), which can reveal the variables that have the most influence on source-water fractions and carbon-14 travel times. Once these variables are determined, more focused effort can be applied to determining the proper distribution for each constraint. Second, Monte Carlo results for water-rock reaction modeling showed discrete and nonunique results. The NETPATH models provide the solutions that satisfy the constraints of upgradient and downgradient water chemistry. There can exist multiple, discrete solutions for any scenario and these discrete solutions cause grouping of results. As a result, the variability in output may not easily be represented by a single distribution or a mean and variance and care should be taken in the interpretation and reporting of results.

phase dissolution and precipitation amounts↗

DOE OSTI2021

Measurement of the D → K - π + π + π- and D → K - π + π 0 coherence factors and average strong-phase differences in quantum-correlated $ D\overline{D} $ decays

The decays D → K - π + π + π - and D → K - π + π 0 are studied in a sample of quantum-correlated $ D\overline{D} $ pairs produced through the process e + e - → ψ (3770) → $ D\overline{D} $ , exploiting a data set collected by the BESIII experiment that corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 2.93 fb - 1 . Here D indicates a quantum superposition of a D 0 and a $ {\overline{D}}^0 $ meson. By reconstructing one neutral charm meson in a signal decay, and the other in the same or a different final state, observables are measured that contain information on the coherence factors and average strong-phase differences of each of the signal modes. These parameters are critical inputs in the measurement of the angle γ of the Unitarity Triangle in B - → DK - decays at the LHCb and Belle II experiments. The coherence factors are determined to be R K 3 π = $ {0.52}_{-0.10}^{+0.12} $ and $ {R}_{K{\pi \pi}^0} $ = 0 . 78 ± 0 . 04, with values for the average strong-phase differences that are $ {\delta}_D^{K3\pi }=\left({167}_{-19}^{+31}\right){}^{\circ} $ and $ {\delta}_D^{K{\pi \pi}^0}=\left({196}_{-15}^{+14}\right){}^{\circ} $ , where the uncertainties include both statistical and systematic contributions. The analysis is re-performed in four bins of the phase-space of the D → K - π + π + π - to yield results that will allow for a more sensitive measurement of γ with this mode, to which the BESIII inputs will contribute an uncertainty of around 6°.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

NASA NTRS2017

Sensitivity Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification of a Mars Ascent Vehicle Concept

The design of a conceptual Mars ascent vehicle is a challenging problem. In order to aid the vehicle and mission concept design it is important to understand the driving design parameters and the expected performance in the presence of model errors and uncertainties. An existing six degree of freedom simulation model is analyzed on a statistical basis using the methods available in the Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications toolkit. The methods utilized include conventional Monte Carlo techniques, metamodeling via polynomial chaos expansions, and global variance-based sensitivity analyses. Two additional analysis methods referred to as “Monte Carlo filtering” and ”Classification trees” are used to determine which uncertain parameters are driving the performance of the vehicle. Monte Carlo filtering provides a methodology to determine which parameters cause qualitatively different behavior while the classification trees use heuristics to partition the input space and assign probabilities to each partition. These methods serve as qualitative descriptors of model sensitivity while variance-based global sensitivity analysis seeks a quantitative mapping from total output variance to the variance of individual inputs. Application of these techniques to several outputs of a Mars ascent vehicle concept simulation indicates that only a select few input factors dominate their variance.

Noyes, Connor↗

NASA NTRS1998

Alignment and Polarization Sensitivity Study for the Cassini-Composite InfraRed Spectrometer (CIRS) Far InfraRed (FIR) Interferometer

The Composite InfraRed Spectrometer (CIRS) instrument flying on the Cassini spacecraft to Saturn is a cryogenic spectrometer with far-infrared (FIR) and mid-infrared (MIR) channels. The CIRS FIR channel is a polarizing interferometer that contains three polarizing grid components. These components are an input polarizer, a polarizing beamsplitter, and an output polarizer/analyzer. They consist of a 1.5 micron thick mylar substrate with 2 gm wide copper wires, with 2 gm spacing (4 micron pitch) photolithographically deposited on the substrate. This paper details the polarization sensitivity studies performed on the output polarizer/analyzer, and the alignment sensitivity studies performed on the input polarizer and beamsplitter components in the FIR interferometer.

Crooke, Julie A.↗

NASA NTRS1993

An investigation of fighter aircraft agility

This report attempts to unify in a single document the results of a series of studies on fighter aircraft agility funded by the NASA Ames Research Center, Dryden Flight Research Facility and conducted at the University of Kansas Flight Research Laboratory during the period January 1989 through December 1993. New metrics proposed by pilots and the research community to assess fighter aircraft agility are collected and analyzed. The report develops a framework for understanding the context into which the various proposed fighter agility metrics fit in terms of application and testing. Since new metrics continue to be proposed, this report does not claim to contain every proposed fighter agility metric. Flight test procedures, test constraints, and related criteria are developed. Instrumentation required to quantify agility via flight test is considered, as is the sensitivity of the candidate metrics to deviations from nominal pilot command inputs, which is studied in detail. Instead of supplying specific, detailed conclusions about the relevance or utility of one candidate metric versus another, the authors have attempted to provide sufficient data and analyses for readers to formulate their own conclusions. Readers are therefore ultimately responsible for judging exactly which metrics are 'best' for their particular needs. Additionally, it is not the intent of the authors to suggest combat tactics or other actual operational uses of the results and data in this report. This has been left up to the user community. Twenty of the candidate agility metrics were selected for evaluation with high fidelity, nonlinear, non real-time flight simulation computer programs of the F-5A Freedom Fighter, F-16A Fighting Falcon, F-18A Hornet, and X-29A. The information and data presented on the 20 candidate metrics which were evaluated will assist interested readers in conducting their own extensive investigations. The report provides a definition and analysis of each metric; details of how to test and measure the metric, including any special data reduction requirements; typical values for the metric obtained using one or more aircraft types; and a sensitivity analysis if applicable. The report is organized as follows. The first chapter in the report presents a historical review of air combat trends which demonstrate the need for agility metrics in assessing the combat performance of fighter aircraft in a modern, all-aspect missile environment. The second chapter presents a framework for classifying each candidate metric according to time scale (transient, functional, instantaneous), further subdivided by axis (pitch, lateral, axial). The report is then broadly divided into two parts, with the transient agility metrics (pitch lateral, axial) covered in chapters three, four, and five, and the functional agility metrics covered in chapter six. Conclusions, recommendations, and an extensive reference list and biography are also included. Five appendices contain a comprehensive list of the definitions of all the candidate metrics; a description of the aircraft models and flight simulation programs used for testing the metrics; several relations and concepts which are fundamental to the study of lateral agility; an in-depth analysis of the axial agility metrics; and a derivation of the relations for the instantaneous agility and their approximations.

Valasek, John↗

NASA NTRS1981

Analysis of costs of gallium arsenide and silicon solar arrays for space power applications

A parametric analysis was performed to compare the costs of silicon and gallium arsenide arrays for Earth orbital missions. The missions included electric power in low Earth orbit (LEO), electric power in geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO), and power for electric propulsion of a LEO to GEO orbit transfer mission. Inputs to the analysis for all missions included launch and purchase costs of the array. For the orbit transfer mission, the launch and purchase costs of the electric propulsion system were added. Radiation flux as a function of altitude and rediation tolerance as a function of cell type were used to determine power degradation for each mission. Curves were generated that show the sensitivity of launch-array cost and total mission cost to a variety of input parameters for each mission. These parameters included mission duration, cover glass thickness, array specific cost, array specific mass, and solar cell efficiency. Solar concentration was considered and the sensitivities of cost to concentration ratio, concentrator costs, and concentrator mass were also evaluated. Results indicate that solar cell development should give a high priority to reducing array costs and that the development of low cost, lightweight, solar concentrators should be pursued.

Jefferies, K. S.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Identifying high-impact and high-uncertainty parameters in MiniFuel model predictions

The MiniFuel irradiation platform at Oak Ridge National Laboratory's High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) is a flexible, high-throughput separate effects test capability. Finite element thermal models are relied upon to design MiniFuel experiments and to achieve experimental objectives. Recent reports show good agreement in the model prediction of target fuel temperatures, but as the capability of the experiments is extended to higher temperatures, the uncertainty in the model predictions must be quantified. To that end, high-impact, high-uncertainty parameters that contribute the most uncertainty to the model are identified. The uncertainty quantification was accomplished through a series of screening and sensitivity analyses. The first analysis utilizes the method of Morris to perform a computationally efficient preliminary screening that considers uncertainty in a large number of the model inputs. The most important parameters identified in the Morris screening study were then considered in a Sobol sensitivity analysis that more robustly ranks and quantifies the uncertainty associated with each parameter. From these analyses, it was determined that thermal contact conductance between components is the parameter that contributes the highest uncertainty. The estimated uncertainty of the MiniFuel model fuel temperature predictions is ±80 °C in the removable beryllium and ±40 °C in the vertical experiment facilities. In conclusion, the framework established by the series of sensitivity analyses presented herein could easily be adapted to fit the needs of accelerated fuel qualification processes.

Fuel, Irradiation↗

NASA NTRS1993

Dependence of the interstellar propagation of ultraheavy cosmic-ray nuclei on various parameters

A stepwise program of interstellar-cosmic-ray propagation suitable for implementation on a small work-station has been used to study the sensitivity of propagation models of ultraheavy cosmic-ray nuclei (UH nuclei) on the input parameters. In this program an initial set of relevant parameters describing the astrophysics of the propagations process and the nuclear physics representing the interactions was assumed. These parameters were then varied within the estimated uncertainties in order to evaluate the sensitivity of the predictions on the assumed values. It is shown that current uncertainties in the estimates of the UH nuclei nuclear cross sections for the production of lighter fragments present the most significant sources of error and are sufficient to preclude reaching detailed conclusions about the source composition. Other uncertainties, such as those in the escape probabilities, or the mean interstellar density, while still significant, are less serious.

Clinton, Robert R.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Understanding the trade-offs of national municipal solid waste estimation methods for circular economy policy

Policies embracing circular economy concepts have taken hold in national legislation around the world. As the number of governments and organizations adopting circular economy policies increases, so does the need for accurate and timely measurement of material resource flows. Since many countries do not have access to centrally reported municipal solid waste (MSW) data, estimation and modeling are critical in evaluating circular economy policy effectiveness. The purpose of this paper is to examine three modeling approaches estimating national MSW data in the United States, including industry-based material flow analysis, waste-extended input-output modeling, and aggregated regional waste reporting. We establish five criteria to guide the analysis through the context of policy monitoring (data quality, flow totality, update frequency, sensitivity to disruption, and product granularity) and use these criteria to analyze and score each model. We then use a literature search to identify five, internationally-implemented options for circular economy policy and determine the data and modeling components that are most helpful in evaluating policy effectiveness. Finally, we provide a crosswalk of the model scores and policy needs to inform the suitability of model selection by policy type. We found that data quality and update frequency are identified as critical components for evaluating circular economy policies within the models evaluated, and can both be fulfilled by aggregated regional waste reporting. Flow totality, sensitivity to disruption, and product granularity requirements vary by both model and policy types. While none of the evaluated models satisfy the combination of requirements for any of the five policies, industry-based material flow analysis offers flow totality for extended producer responsibility, landfill bans, and recycling rate target policies that typically require it. Here, the waste-extended input-output model can provide disruption sensitivity and product granularity as needed for policies like minimum recycled content and market restrictions. Policy developers in areas where strong centralized data collection is not an option should design policy action(s) with modeling tradeoffs in mind, including the potential hybridization of modeling approaches that may provide the most accurate national MSW estimates.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2016

SENSMG: First-Order Sensitivities of Neutron Reaction Rates, Reaction-Rate Ratios, Leakage, k eff , and α Using PARTISN

SENSMG is a tool for computing first-order sensitivities of neutron reaction rates, reaction-rate ratios, leakage, k eff , and α using the PARTISN multigroup discrete-ordinates code. SENSMG computes sensitivities to all of the transport cross sections and data (total, fission, nu, chi, and all scattering moments), two edit cross sections (absorption and capture), and the density for every isotope and energy group. It also computes sensitivities to the mass density for every material and derivatives with respect to all interface locations. The tool can be used for one-dimensional spherical (r) and two-dimensional cylindrical (r-z) geometries. The tool can be used for fixed-source and eigenvalue problems. The tool implements Generalized Perturbation Theory (GPT) as discussed by Williams and Stacey. Section II of this report describes the theory behind adjoint-based sensitivities, gives the equations that SENSMG solves, and defines the sensitivities that are output. Section III describes the user interface, including the input file and command line options. Section IV describes the output. Section V gives some notes about the coding that may be of interest. Section VI discusses verification, which is ongoing. Section VII lists needs and ideas for future work. Appendix A lists all of the input files whose results are presented in Sec. VI.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2001

Approach for Uncertainty Propagation and Robust Design in CFD Using Sensitivity Derivatives

This paper presents an implementation of the approximate statistical moment method for uncertainty propagation and robust optimization for a quasi 1-D Euler CFD (computational fluid dynamics) code. Given uncertainties in statistically independent, random, normally distributed input variables, a first- and second-order statistical moment matching procedure is performed to approximate the uncertainty in the CFD output. Efficient calculation of both first- and second-order sensitivity derivatives is required. In order to assess the validity of the approximations, the moments are compared with statistical moments generated through Monte Carlo simulations. The uncertainties in the CFD input variables are also incorporated into a robust optimization procedure. For this optimization, statistical moments involving first-order sensitivity derivatives appear in the objective function and system constraints. Second-order sensitivity derivatives are used in a gradient-based search to successfully execute a robust optimization. The approximate methods used throughout the analyses are found to be valid when considering robustness about input parameter mean values.

Putko, Michele M.↗

DOE OSTI2019

(U) Analytic One-Group S 2 Slab Problem with Isotropic Scattering and Fission Applied to Neutron Multiplicity Sensitivity

A one-group isotropic S 2 transport problem in a homogeneous slab is solved analytically and used to derive an analytic expression for the Feynman Y for this special case. Analytic derivatives of the Feynman Y are then taken with respect to an arbitrary input parameter. The analytic solution is used to verify the results of the new Feynman Y sensitivity capability that Alex Clark (NC State/XCP-3) has integrated into the neutron sensitivity code SENSMG. SENSMG’s Feynman Y capability relies on the multigroup discrete-ordinates code PARTISN and the methodology developed by Mattingly to compute the Feynman Y deterministically, and the Feynman Y sensitivity capability relies on work by O’Brien et al., extended by Clark.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

User's Manual for RESRAD-BUILD Code Version 4: Vol. 2 - User's Guide for RESRAD-BUILD Code Version 4

The RESRAD-BUILD computer code is designed to assess radiological doses to individuals who live or work in a building contaminated with radioactive material. The code is equipped with a user-friendly interface that has many features to facilitate using the computer code and understanding the results. The design of the interface provides various options, from entering data and performing calculations to displaying calculation results. General and context-specific help are available, providing information on editing and viewing the radionuclide database, the definitions of input parameters and their use in the calculations, and the selection of the calculation results for placement into other applications. Two types of sensitivity analysis are supported by the code, i.e., deterministic and probabilistic, that can be used to study the influence of input parameters on the calculation results. This user’s guide provides instructions to help users on how to install the RESRAD-BUILD code, navigate the interface, and use the various features to set up a dose/risk analysis and to view/print the results in text and graphical outputs.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

NASA NTRS1982

Evaluation of LANDSAT-D Orbit Determination Using a Filter/Smoother (PREFER)

Simulated range and range rate data for five tracking stations were first generated using batch least squares orbit determination (GTDS). Then GTDS was used (in the differential correction mode) to produce a nominal trajectory which was input to PREFER. The GTDS differential correction (DC) run was made using models which differed from those used to produce the simulated data. These model differences were chosen to be fairly realistic approximations to the errors in the models actually used for operational orbit determination. Several different simulation runs were made with different types of model errors in order to determine the sensitivity to these errors. The nominal trajectory and the simulated measurement data were input to PREFER to produce a smoothed ephemeris file. Numerous runs of PREFER were made in which parameters describing the statistics of the model errors were varied. The likelihood function computed by the Kalman filter determined the ""best'' choice of input parameters. There was strong negative correlation between the likelihood function and the errors in the smoothed ephemeris.

Gibbs, B. P.↗