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DOE OSTI2023

Spatial controls of methane uptake in upland soils across climatic and geological regions in Greenland

Abstract In the Arctic, the spatiotemporal variation of net methane uptake in upland soils depends on unresolved interactive controls between edaphic and microbial factors not yet included in current models, underpinning the uncertainty of upscaling the Arctic methane budget. Here we show that upland soils in Greenland are consistent methane sinks (−1.83 ± 0.19 nmol methane g −1 dw d −1 ) across a N-S (64–83 °N) pedoclimatic transect. We demonstrate that methane oxidizers abundance, soil pH, and available soil copper are important controls on the spatial variation in methane oxidation. We revised a soil biogeochemical model with a high-resolution land classification and meteorological data for Greenland and tested it against our methane uptake measurements. The model simulated well the magnitudes of observed methane uptake but not the spatial variation across all sites. This work provides novel insights into the controls of methane uptake, which are critical for the accuracy of methane budgets.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

DOE OSTI2021

Locating Seismic Events with Local-Distance Data

As the seismic monitoring community advances toward detecting, identifying, and locating ever-smaller natural and anthropogenic events, the need is constantly increasing for higher resolution, higher fidelity data, models, and methods for accurately characterizing events. Local-distance seismic data provide robust constraints on event locations, but also introduce complexity due to the significant geologic heterogeneity of the Earth’s crust and upper mantle, and the relative sparsity of data that often occurs with small events recorded on regional seismic networks. Identifying the critical characteristics for improving local-scale event locations and the factors that impact location accuracy and reliability is an ongoing challenge for the seismic community. Using Utah as a test case, we examine three data sets of varying duration, finesse, and magnitude to investigate the effects of local earth structure and modeling parameters on local-distance event location precision and accuracy. We observe that the most critical elements controlling relocation precision are azimuthal coverage and local-scale velocity structure, with tradeoffs based on event depth, type, location, and range.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Modeling glass degradation and release of radionuclides from vitrified waste for performance assessment simulations

The release of radionuclides initially encapsulated in a slowly degrading solid waste form and contained in an eventually corroding canister defines the source term for numerical simulations for the assessment of a geologic repository for high-level radioactive waste. While the details of waste degradation, canister corrosion, and dissolution and mobilization of the radionuclides in pore water include complex chemical reaction and transport processes that are coupled to the thermal, hydrological, microbiological, and mechanical conditions in the repository, the source-term model suitable for use in a numerical performance assessment model should be a defensible abstraction of these mechanisms. We developed a radiological source-term model and implemented it into a non-isothermal flow and transport simulator. While the proposed source-term model is applicable to various waste forms, canister systems, and disposal concepts, we specifically considered radionuclide releases from vitrified high-level waste placed in a cylindrical canister disposed in a deep vertical borehole repository. In this model, waste degradation is a function of temperature, and it can be adjusted to evaluate the influence of and propagate uncertainties in pH, passivation reactions, and chemical conditions as well as geometrical factors. The time-dependent, congruent release of safety-relevant radionuclides present in the decaying inventory is then calculated. Finally, the radionuclides are mobilized by diffusive and advective transport according to the thermo-hydraulic conditions prevailing in the near field of the repository, from where they migrate through the geosphere to the accessible environment. We examine the influence of the source-term model’s parameters on performance assessment calculations through sensitivity and uncertainty propagation analyses, identifying influential factors and confirming the upper bound of their impact. These considerations align with the overarching goal of repository design, which is to demonstrate that engineered and natural barriers can collectively delay radionuclide migration for timescales far exceeding human planning, thereby providing multiple, redundant barriers against environmental contamination.

iTOUGH2↗

DOE OSTI2021

Subsurface Characterization and Machine Learning Predictions at Brady Hot Springs: Preprint

Subsurface data analysis, reservoir modeling, and machine learning (ML) techniques have been applied to the Brady Hot Springs (BHS) geothermal field in Nevada, USA to further characterize the subsurface and assist with optimizing reservoir management. Hundreds of reservoir simulations have been conducted in TETRAD-G and CMG STARS to explore different injection and production fluid flow rates and allocations and to develop a training data set for ML. This process included simulating the historical injection and production since 1979 and prediction of future performance through 2040. ML networks were created and trained using TensorFlow based on multilayer perceptron (MLP), long short-term memory (LSTM), and convolutional neural network (CNN) architectures. These networks took as input selected flow rates, injection temperatures, and historical field operation data and produced estimates of future production temperatures. This approach was first successfully tested on a simplified single fracture doublet system, followed by the application to the BHS reservoir. Using an initial BHS dataset with 37 simulated scenarios, the trained and validated network predicted the production temperature for 6 production wells with the mean absolute percentage error of less than 8%. In a complementary analysis effort, the principal component analysis applied to 13 BHS geological parameters revealed that vertical fracture permeability shows the strongest correlation with fault density and fault intersection density. A new BHS reservoir model was developed considering the fault intersection density as proxy for permeability. This new reservoir model helps to explore under-exploited zones in the reservoir. A data gathering plan to obtain additional subsurface data was developed; it includes temperature surveying for three idle injection wells, at which the reservoir simulations indicate high bottom-hole temperatures. The collected data assist with calibrating the reservoir model and may lead to converting these wells to producers to access under-exploited zones in the reservoir. Data gathering activities are planned for the first quarter of 2021.

40 EE - Geothermal Technologies Office (EE-4G)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Three-Dimensional Pore Networks in Miocene Stevens Sandstone of California: Implications for CO 2 Geologic Storage

The Miocene Stevens Sandstone in the San Joaquin Basin of California is increasingly recognized as a promising candidate for CO 2 geological storage due to the enormous storage capacity, proven sealing, and existing infrastructure. In this study, computed microtomography imaging and pore network modeling were employed to investigate the influence of pore geometry and wettability on the CO 2 injectivity and residual trapping. Image analysis revealed that a significant fraction of the cement and matrix consists of microporous regions. The microporosity can substantially increase the overall pore space, yet its contribution to permeability remains modest, particularly in samples with low permeability. The intrinsic heterogeneity of turbidite reservoirs further complicates the reservoir properties among different layers. Two-phase flow simulations under varying wettability conditions (water-wet, weak water-wet, and neutral-wet) demonstrated that the CO 2 injection is predominantly controlled by macropores. CO 2 invades microporous regions only after these larger pores are filled. The presence of microporosity leads to a decrease in both initial and residual CO 2 saturations, with the magnitude of the reduction being influenced by wettability. Neutral-wet scenarios exhibit higher CO 2 mobility and thus lower residual trapping than water-wet scenarios. The results imply that heterogeneity in pore geometry and cement distribution across different layers can result in stratified CO 2 flow pathways, complicating efforts to predict injection performance. Overall, the Stevens Sandstone shows considerable promise for CO 2 geologic storage, but effective implementation will require detailed characterization of the pore structure as well as the integration of reactive fluid flow to account for potential mineral dissolution and fines migration.

fluids↗

DOE OSTI2024

Shallow Geothermal Resources for Cooling Applications at the University of Hawai‘i

Scientists at Berkeley Lab have teamed up with The University of Hawai‘i at Manoa (UH Manoa) through the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Energy Transitions Initiative Partnership Project (ETIPP) to evaluate the technological and market feasibility of shallow geothermal heat exchanger (GHE) technology for building cooling, energy efficiency, and emissions reduction applications in Hawai’i. The team is assessing the data necessary to model the feasibility of deploying this technology, the actual models that will be used, and what hurdles need to be overcome to install a demonstration case. UH has an abundance of geologic and geothermal data and is looking to the national labs’ expertise to execute this analysis. UH is also interested in investigating policy, regulatory, and business conditions advantageous for implementation of a pilot project, and more broad deployment of this technology in Hawai‘i. In many locations around the world, the demands for heating and cooling are roughly balanced over the course of the year, so GHEs do not cause significant long-term changes in subsurface temperature. This is not the case in Hawai’i, where the demand for heating is very small, meaning that over time, GHEs will add heat to the subsurface. If temperatures increase significantly, GHE systems will not work as designed. Regional groundwater flow has the potential to sweep heated water away from boreholes, thereby maintaining the functionality of the GHE system. Significant regional groundwater flow requires two things: a sufficiently large driving hydraulic head gradient (usually closely related to surface topography), and sufficient porosity and permeability to enable groundwater to flow in large enough quantities to enable near-borehole temperatures to be maintained at ambient values. Hawai‘i’s volcanic terrain offers ample surface topographic variation. The lava itself shows an extremely large range of porosity and permeability, making it crucial to select sites with large enough values of these properties. Numerical modeling of coupled groundwater and heat flow can be used to determine how large is large enough. Both closed-loop and open-loop systems are being investigated. Another option being considered is using cool seawater as the source of chill. Currently work is progressing on two fronts. A hydrogeologic model for a closed-loop system is being developed for the Stan Sheriff Center at the UH Manoa campus, where a subsurface karst system immediately downgradient of the borefield may provide efficient removal of heated groundwater. The team will also develop a technoeconomic model for this site to compare the cost of cooling using a GHE system with the costs of operating the current air conditioning system. At the state scale, geographic information system (GIS) layers of various attributes relevant for GHE are being combined to develop an overall favorability map for employing GHE in Hawai‘i.

Doughty, C↗

DOE OSTI2025

Mechanistic understanding of carbon mineralization in fracture systems using microfluidics

Carbon mineralization in mafic and ultramafic rocks presents an opportunity for permanent carbon storage in the Earth's subsurface. However, due to their lower permeability, pre-existing fracture networks are key for mineralization to occur. Therefore, to fully develop this technology, a mechanistic understanding of the mineralization behavior in fractures with the consideration of hydrodynamic components is required. We use high-pressure microfluidics to investigate key mechanisms influencing dissolution–precipitation in a fracture network. The experiments were conducted in micromodels made of natural rocks with a comb-shaped flow channel to mimic a fracture network. This enabled studying the effect of injection rate on coupled dissolution–precipitation in advection and diffusion-dominated flow paths. We used gypsum carbonation as an analog reaction to allow for realistic experimental time frames due to its rapid reaction kinetics. The experimental work is coupled with high-fidelity numerical simulations to enhance our understanding of the parameters affecting the mineralization reaction. Our results demonstrate the importance of flow rate on the rate and nature of the gypsum carbonation reaction revealing that higher flow rates enable deeper penetration of the mineral precipitation front into the dead-end channels. This is an important finding since for sustained mineralization in a fracture network, precipitation in dead-ends while still allowing for flowing fractures is critical. Detailed characterization of the precipitates showed that lower flow rates led to porous and loose precipitates in the form of aragonite while higher flow rates mimicked supersaturation behavior leading to the formation of calcite. The reactive transport simulations further demonstrated the significance of flow velocity in advection-dominated channels to influence the efficiency of carbon mineralization in diffusion-dominated channels, potentially clogging of dead-end channels. These findings highlight the need for coupling chemical, mechanical, and hydrodynamic processes to evaluate the nature and extent of carbon mineralization in fractured media critical for permanent storage in mafic and ultramafic formations. This research further highlights the need for more investigation in potential subsurface fracture generation techniques to aid carbon mineralization.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Self-Organized Stress Distributions in Polycrystalline Materials [Dissertation]

Understanding stress distributions in solid materials is complicated by the fact that most materials are polycrystalline in nature, with each crystal having an elastically anisotropic reaction to force. This study is to gain a better understanding on how external forces placed on a polycrystal are related to internal reactions within and between the grains. The hypothesis is that the stress distribution in porous to fully dense materials are self-organized based on strong contacts between and within the individual grains created by force chains. Force chains, commonly known in loaded granular materials, and could be the phenomenon that connect micro to macro deformation. Scale bridging measurements conducted through Raman spectroscopy, Atomic Force Microscopy, and Digital Image Correlation will be used to create stress maps, modulus maps, and elastic strain maps across a variety of geological and pharmaceutical polycrystals. When possible, the resulting maps will be compared to current homogenization schemes and a full field models. Finite element modeling will be used to assess whether the patterning seen in the experimental map is a reasonable approximation based on the orientation data of the samples used. A minimum of three publications is projected to be accomplished focusing each on a different method to experimentally test and analyze stress distributions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Oil and Gas Recovery Capability

Oil and gas recovery increasingly relies on stimulation and production strategies that involve complex interactions between rock deformation, fractures, and fluid flow underground. Conventional modeling approaches often simplify or separate these effects, which can limit their ability to accurately predict performance in fractured or geologically complex reservoirs.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2021

New Orthophoto Generation Strategies from UAV and Ground Remote Sensing Platforms for High-Throughput Phenotyping

Remote sensing platforms have become an effective data acquisition tool for digital agriculture. Imaging sensors onboard unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and tractors are providing unprecedented high-geometric-resolution data for several crop phenotyping activities (e.g., canopy cover estimation, plant localization, and flowering date identification). Among potential products, orthophotos play an important role in agricultural management. Traditional orthophoto generation strategies suffer from several artifacts (e.g., double mapping, excessive pixilation, and seamline distortions). The above problems are more pronounced when dealing with mid- to late-season imagery, which is often used for establishing flowering date (e.g., tassel and panicle detection for maize and sorghum crops, respectively). In response to these challenges, this paper introduces new strategies for generating orthophotos that are conducive to the straightforward detection of tassels and panicles. The orthophoto generation strategies are valid for both frame and push-broom imaging systems. The target function of these strategies is striking a balance between the improved visual appearance of tassels/panicles and their geolocation accuracy. The new strategies are based on generating a smooth digital surface model (DSM) that maintains the geolocation quality along the plant rows while reducing double mapping and pixilation artifacts. Moreover, seamline control strategies are applied to avoid having seamline distortions at locations where the tassels and panicles are expected. The quality of generated orthophotos is evaluated through visual inspection as well as quantitative assessment of the degree of similarity between the generated orthophotos and original images. Several experimental results from both UAV and ground platforms show that the proposed strategies do improve the visual quality of derived orthophotos while maintaining the geolocation accuracy at tassel/panicle locations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Self-potential tomography preconditioned by particle swarm optimization—Self-potential monitoring and streamflow data acquired March 26–September 14, 2023 at East Fork Poplar Creek near Oak Ridge Tennessee

This data release contains self-potential (SP) monitoring data measured on the flood plain of East Fork Poplar Creek (East Fork) in Oak Ridge, Tennessee and streamflow data measured at streamgage EFK5.4 about 310 meters upstream from the SP monitoring site. Additionally, forward and inverse numerical modeling scripts used to model the electrical-potential field on the East Fork flood plain are provided. SP monitoring data included in this data release were measured at 39 different data-collection points on the east flood plain; 30 points were spaced 3-m apart along an 87-m profile parallel to the edge of the streambank, and 9 points were spaced 5-m apart along a 40-m profile approximately perpendicular to the streambank. The two profiles of SP data-collection points intersected at the approximate midpoint of the profile parallel to the streambank. Transient voltages were measured at each data-collection point every 60 seconds between 16:13 Eastern Standard Time (EST) on March 26, 2023, and 11:41 EST on September 14, 2023. Streamflow data included in this data release overlap the time-period of self-potential monitoring and were measured every 900 seconds between 16:23 on March 26, 2023, and 23:53 on September 14, 2023.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Integrated Hydro-Terrestrial Modeling: Development of a National Capability

Water is one of our most important natural resources and is essential to our national economy and security. Multiple federal government agencies have mission elements that address national needs related to water. Each water-related agency champions a unique science and/or operational mission focused on advancing a portion of the nation’s ability to meet our water-related challenges. These diverse mission needs have engendered a rich and extensive base of water-related data and modeling capabilities. While useful for their intended purposes, these capabilities are not well integrated to address complex regional problems and overarching national problems. These major investments by a number of federal agencies, however, lay the foundation for an integrated hydro-terrestrial modeling and data infrastructure that will enhance knowledge, understanding, prediction, and management of the nation’s diverse water challenges. Creating a more seamless national hydro-terrestrial modeling and data capacity presents an enormous opportunity to advance operational as well as research capabilities leading to more effective water management. Advances are necessary not only in operational tools for forecasting but also in research to identify and resolve knowledge and data gaps that lead to unacceptable uncertainties in forecast outcomes. As such, close coordination across scientific, operational, and resource management communities is required. To this end, an interagency workshop on “Integrated Hydro-Terrestrial Modeling: Development of a National Capacity” was held at the National Science Foundation (NSF) headquarters in Alexandria, Virginia in September 2019, led jointly by the NSF, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and with broader interagency support provided through an interagency steering committee. This workshop provided a venue to bring together representatives of water-related agencies and their scientific partners (including university researchers) to initiate and refine a vision for a national Integrated Hydro-Terrestrial Modeling (IHTM) and data infrastructure and advance ideas towards its development. The workshop was designed to address three critical foci to advance the development of a national IHTM capacity: “Priority Water Challenges” around which to motivate and initiate development; Technical and methodological obstacles related to data and modeling; Organizational, structural, and cultural barriers that heretofore have impeded integration of capabilities across the federal and research landscapes. The following “Priority Water Challenge” domain areas represent targets for initiating development of the IHTM and were identified and selected in alignment with priorities of the administration’s Water Sub-Cabinet: (1) Nutrient loading, hypoxia, and harmful algal blooms; (2) Water availability in the western United States; and (3) Extreme weather-related water hazards. These water challenges span agency mission boundaries and encompass a broad range of geographies, complex system dynamics and feedbacks, and critical processes spanning hydrological, climatic, and biophysical systems as well as land-use/land-cover, agricultural, built infrastructure, societal, economic, and decisional environments. These three Priority Water Challenges cannot be fully addressed without leveraging complementary and synergistic capabilities across multiple agencies.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Self-accelerated corrosion of nuclear waste forms at material interfaces

The US plan for high-level nuclear waste includes the immobilization of long-lived radionuclides in glass or ceramic waste forms in stainless-steel canisters for disposal in deep geological repositories. Here we report that, under simulated repository conditions, corrosion could be significantly accelerated at the interfaces of different barrier materials, which has not been considered in the current safety and performance assessment models. Severe localized corrosion was found at the interfaces between stainless steel and a model nuclear waste glass and between stainless steel and a ceramic waste form. The accelerated corrosion can be attributed to changes of solution chemistry and local acidity/alkalinity within a confined space, which significantly alter the corrosion of both the waste-form materials and the metallic canisters. The corrosion that is accelerated by the interface interaction between dissimilar materials could profoundly impact the service life of the nuclear waste packages, which, therefore, should be carefully considered when evaluating the performance of waste forms and their packages. Moreover, compatible barriers should be selected to further optimize the performance of the geological repository system.

Guo, Xiaolei↗

DOE OSTI2022

Simulated CO 2 storage efficiency factors for saline formations of various lithologies and depositional environments using new experimental relative permeability data

Saline formations are attractive geologic reservoirs for permanent carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) storage. Here, the U.S. Department of Energy's National Energy Technology Laboratory (DOE-NETL) has worked to develop and refine methods and tools for the calculation of CO 2 storage potential in subsurface reservoirs. DOE-NETL's CO 2 -SCREEN provides an online tool for executing these storage methods. CO 2 storage efficiency terms are input parameters in DOE-NETL's methods and equations embedded in the CO 2 -SCREEN, which assesses pore space available for CO 2 storage. In this work, a modeling workflow was initiated to refine two CO 2 storage efficiency terms - volumetric displacement (E V ) and microscopic displacement (E d ). The models are based on new experimental relative permeability data that are specific to homogenous lithology and depositional environments of key subsurface saline formations targeted for CO 2 storage. In future work, heterogenous features will be added to this initial modeling effort to update efficiency factors as described in DOE-NETL's methods and CO 2 -SCREEN tool. E V accounts for the volume utilized in the reservoir under the areal plume, while E d accounts for saturation values in the plume to assess efficiency of CO 2 storage at the pore scale. The results of this work are significant in that prior values were based on a limited geologically non-specific relative permeability data set that were collected prior to 2009. Specifically, we applied numerical simulations using TOUGH3 models to update CO 2 storage efficiency values for supercritical CO 2 injection into brine-saturated reservoirs for three lithologies (clastics, limestone, dolomite) and six depositional environments (Marginal Marine, Strand Plain, Deltaic Complex Fluvial, Aeolian, Shallow Marine, and Reef) that have a high potential for geologic CO 2 storage. Experimental relative permeability data in cores from these environments were utilized in the models with corresponding rock type/sedimentary environment. Results of this study showed that dolomite followed by limestone generated higher ranges of storage efficiency compared to clastics. The updated values provided a tighter efficiency range for clastics, lower P 10 but higher P 90 range for limestone, and higher P 10 and P 90 for dolomite. In general, tighter reservoirs with relatively low permeability and porosity were associated with higher E V and E d , showing efficient reservoir and pore utilization in these scenarios. High reservoir pressure and temperature associated with increasing depth increased the E V , and high CO 2 injection rates resulted in increases in E V and E d , while the impact of permeability anisotropy was minimal after the 30-year injection period.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Estimating Watershed Subsurface Permeability From Stream Discharge Data using Deep Neural Networks, Frontiers in Earth Science: Dataset

This data package contains watershed modeling inputs and outputs as well as deep neural networks training and testing results used in "Estimating Watershed Subsurface Permeability From Stream Discharge Data using Deep Neural Networks" (Cromwell et al., 2021). We train various deep neural network models with different architectures to predict subsurface permeability from stream discharge hydrograph at the watershed outlet. The training data are obtained from ensemble simulations of hydrographs corresponding to an permeability ensemble using a fully-distributed, integrated surface-subsurface hydrologic model. The trained model is then applied to estimate the permeability of the real watershed using its observed hydrograph at the outlet. Our study demonstrates that the permeabilities of the soil and geologic facies that make significant contributions to the outlet discharge can be more accurately estimated from the discharge data. Their estimations are also more robust with observation errors. Compared to the traditional ensemble smoother method, DNNs show stronger performance in capturing the nonlinear relationship between permeability and stream hydrograph to accurately estimate permeability. Our study sheds new light on the value of the emerging deep learning methods in assisting integrated watershed modeling by improving parameter estimation, which will eventually reduce the uncertainty in predictive watershed models. For detailed information regarding watershed model description and DNNs setup, please refer to Cromwell et al., 2021. The deep_learning.zip file contains the inputs and outputs for the different deep neural networks. The watershed_model.zip file contains the inputs and outputs for watershed simulation using ATS. The figures.zip file contains raw figures and their corresponding scripts. For a more detailed description, please see the README.md file within each compressed file.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic Mixture Model-Based Spectral Unmixing

Spectral unmixing attempts to decompose a spectral ensemble into the constituent pure spectral signatures (called endmembers) along with the proportion of each endmember. This is essential for techniques like hyperspectral imaging (HSI) used in environment monitoring, geological exploration, etc. Several spectral unmixing approaches have been proposed, many of which are connected to hyperspectral imaging. However, most extant approaches assume highly diverse collections of mixtures and extremely low-loss spectroscopic measurements. Additionally, current non-Bayesian frameworks do not incorporate the uncertainty inherent in unmixing. We propose a probabilistic inference algorithm that explicitly incorporates noise and uncertainty, enabling us to unmix endmembers in collections of mixtures with limited diversity. We use a Bayesian mixture model to jointly extract endmember spectra and mixing parameters while explicitly modeling observation noise and the resulting inference uncertainties. We obtain approximate distributions over endmember coordinates for each set of observed spectra while remaining robust to inference biases from the lack of pure observations and the presence of non-isotropic Gaussian noise. As a direct impact of our methodology, access to reliable uncertainties on the unmixing solutions would enable robust solutions to noise, as well as informed decision-making for HSI applications and other unmixing problems.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2021

Impacts of Sea‐Level Rise on Hypoxia and Phytoplankton Production in Chesapeake Bay: Model Prediction and Assessment

In this study, the influence of sea-level rise (SLR) on seasonal hypoxia and phytoplankton production in Chesapeake Bay is investigated using a 3D unstructured grid model. Three SLR scenarios (0.17, 0.5, and 1.0 m) were conducted from 1991 to 1995. Results show that the summer hypoxic volume (HV) increases about 2%, 8%, and 16%, respectively, for these three scenarios, compared with Base Scenario. The contributions of physical and biological processes on the increase in the HV were analyzed. With the projected SLR, enhanced gravitational circulation transports more oxygen-rich water in the bottom layer from the mouth. However, the pycnocline moves upwards along with increasing water depth, which largely prolongs the time for dissolved oxygen (DO) to be transported to the bottom. The altered physical processes contribute greatly to a larger HV bay-wide. Besides, SLR increases the whole Bay phytoplankton production, with a larger increase in shallow areas (e.g., 53% in areas with depth <1 m under SLR of 0.5 m). Enhanced light availability is suggested to be the major driver of blooming phytoplankton under SLR in shallow areas. While increased DO production over the euphotic zone is mostly released to the atmosphere and transported downstream, the increase in settled organic matter greatly promotes DO consumption in the water column. The increased respiration is another major cause of the HV increase besides the physical contributions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

DEEPEN: Final 3D PFA Favorability Models and 2D Favorability Maps at Newberry Volcano

Part of the DEEPEN (DE-risking Exploration of geothermal Plays in magmatic ENvironments) project involved developing and testing a methodology for a 3D play fairway analysis (PFA) for multiple play types (conventional hydrothermal, superhot EGS, and supercritical). This was tested using new and existing geoscientific exploration datasets at Newberry Volcano. This GDR submission includes images, data, and models related to the 3D favorability and uncertainty models and the 2D favorability and uncertainty maps. The DEEPEN PFA Methodology, detailed in the journal article below, is based on the method proposed by Poux & O'brien (2020), which uses the Leapfrog Geothermal software with the Edge extension to conduct PFA in 3D. This method uses all available data to build a 3D geodata model which can be broken down into smaller blocks and analyzed with advanced geostatistical methods. Each data set is imported into a 3D model in Leapfrog and divided into smaller blocks. Conditional queries can then be used to assign each block an index value which conditionally ranks each block's favorability, from 0-5 with 5 being most favorable, for each model (e.g., lithologic, seismic, magnetic, structural). The values between 0-5 assigned to each block are referred to as index values. The final step of the process is to combine all the index models to create a favorability index. This involves multiplying each index model by a given weight and then summing the resulting values. The DEEPEN PFA Methodology follows this approach, but split up by the specific geologic components of each play type. These components are defined as follows for each magmatic play type: 1. Conventional hydrothermal plays in magmatic environments: Heat, fluid, and permeability 2. Superhot EGS plays: Heat, thermal insulation, and producibility (the ability to create and sustain fractures suitable for and EGS reservoir) 3. Supercritical plays: Heat, supercritical fluid, pressure seal, and producibility (the proper permeability and pressure conditions to allow production of supercritical fluid) More information on these components and their development can be found in Kolker et al., (2022). For the purposes of subsurface imaging, it is easier to detect a permeable fluid-filled reservoir than it is to detect separate fluid and permeability components. Therefore, in this analysis, we combine fluid and permeability for conventional hydrothermal plays, and supercritical fluid and producibility for supercritical plays. We also project the 3D favorability volumes onto 2D surfaces for simplified joint interpretation, and we incorporate an uncertainty component. Uncertainty was modeled using the best approach for the dataset in question, for the datasets where we had enough information to do so. Identifying which subsurface parameters are the least resolved can help qualify current PFA results and focus future efforts in data collection. Where possible, the resulting uncertainty models/indices were weighted using the same weights applied to the respective datasets, and summed, following the PFA methodology above, but for uncertainty.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗