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At least 667 records · Page 37

Implementation of a practical Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm in PyBioNetFit

Abstract Summary Bayesian inference in biological modeling commonly relies on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling of a multidimensional and non-Gaussian posterior distribution that is not analytically tractable. Here, we present the implementation of a practical MCMC method in the open-source software package PyBioNetFit (PyBNF), which is designed to support parameterization of mathematical models for biological systems. The new MCMC method, am, incorporates an adaptive move proposal distribution. For warm starts, sampling can be initiated at a specified location in parameter space and with a multivariate Gaussian proposal distribution defined initially by a specified covariance matrix. Multiple chains can be generated in parallel using a computer cluster. We demonstrate that am can be used to successfully solve real-world Bayesian inference problems, including forecasting of new Coronavirus Disease 2019 case detection with Bayesian quantification of forecast uncertainty. Availability and implementation PyBNF version 1.1.9, the first stable release with am, is available at PyPI and can be installed using the pip package-management system on platforms that have a working installation of Python 3. PyBNF relies on libRoadRunner and BioNetGen for simulations (e.g. numerical integration of ordinary differential equations defined in SBML or BNGL files) and Dask.Distributed for task scheduling on Linux computer clusters. The Python source code can be freely downloaded/cloned from GitHub and used and modified under terms of the BSD-3 license (https://github.com/lanl/pybnf). Online documentation covering installation/usage is available (https://pybnf.readthedocs.io/en/latest/). A tutorial video is available on YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2aRqpqFOiS4&t=63s). Supplementary information Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Helical Organic and Inorganic Polymers

Despite being a staple of synthetic plastics and biomolecules, helical polymers are scarcely studied with Gaussian-basis-set ab initio electron-correlated methods on an equal footing with molecules. This article introduces an ab initio second-order many-body Green’s-function [MBGF(2)] method with nondiagonal, frequency-dependent Dyson self-energy for infinite helical polymers using screw-axis-symmetry-adapted Gaussian-spherical-harmonics basis functions. Together with the Gaussian-basis-set density-functional theory for energies, analytical atomic forces, translational-period force, and helical-angle force, it can compute correlated energy, quasiparticle energy bands, structures, and vibrational frequencies of an infinite helical polymer, which smoothly converge at the corresponding oligomer results. These methods can handle incommensurable structures, which have an infinite translational period and are hard to characterize by any other method, just as efficiently as commensurable structures. We apply them to polyethylene (2/1 helix), polyacetylene (Peierls’ system), and polytetrafluoroethylene (13/6 helix) to establish the quantitative accuracy of MBGF(2)/cc-pVDZ in simulating their (angle-resolved) ultraviolet photoelectron spectra, and of B3LYP/cc-pVDZ or 6-31G** in reproducing their structures, infrared and Raman band positions, phonon dispersions, and (coherent and incoherent) inelastic neutron scattering spectra. We then predict the same properties for infinitely catenated chains of nitrogen or oxygen and discuss their possible metastable existence under ambient conditions. They include planar zigzag polyazene (N2)x (Peierls’ system), 11/3-helical isotactic polyazane (NH)x, 9/4-helical isotactic polyfluoroazane (NF)x, and 7/2-helical polyoxane (O)x as potential high-energy-density materials.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

GP Cosmology Surrogate v1.0

GP Cosmology Surrogate is a Python library for building and training a generalized multi-output Gaussian process (GP) framework of @takhtaganov2021cosmic. In this approach, the surrogate is constructed sequentially, guided by a Bayesian optimization acquisition function that targets reduction of emulation error in the regions most consistent with the observational data. This adaptive design concentrates computational resources where they have the greatest impact on inference accuracy. The library supports efficient training for separable GP kernels, which allows the use of Kronecker algebra to handle high-dimensional input spaces and large numbers of correlated outputs. This makes it well suited for applications such as modeling cosmological power spectra, large-scale physical simulations, and multi-output hyperparameter tuning. By combining scalable multi-output GP modeling with data-driven adaptive sampling, GPsurrogate enables parameter inference and optimization with substantially fewer simulations than conventional space-filling designs.

Lukic, Zarija [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborato↗

Multi-Fidelity Modeling and Control for Building Temperature Control

The ability to control energy loads such as a building's heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) system can help facilitate increased penetration of variable renewable energy sources into the electric grid. To be able to control these HVAC systems more effectively, detailed simulations of the corresponding building physics is becoming increasingly important. These detailed simulations can be complex, nonlinear, and can require immense computational power when used in an advanced control method such as model predictive control (MPC), prompting the need to explore less computationally intensive strategies. In this work, a multi-fidelity approach is proposed to combine samples from a complex, high-fidelity model with a simple, low-fidelity model within the MPC control loop. More specifically, the parameters of a reduced-order, linear building model are periodically updated with knowledge from its high-fidelity counterpart - an EnergyPlus model - in an online fashion using a Gaussian Process surrogate model. Hence, highly accurate predictions of current and future conditions in a building are maintained with a substantially reduced computational burden compared to using the high-fidelity models alone. In other words, this linear parameter varying model preserves the low computational requirements of a low-order linear model while accurately modeling a building's dynamics. This allows a building controller to take highly informed actions without requiring a large computational budget.

building modeling↗

Statistical emulation of a perturbed basal melt ensemble of an ice sheet model to better quantify Antarctic sea level rise uncertainties

Abstract. Antarctic ice shelves are vulnerable to warming ocean temperatures, and some have already begun thinning in response to increased basal melt rates. Sea level is therefore expected to rise due to Antarctic contributions, but uncertainties in its amount and timing remain largely unquantified. In particular, there is substantial uncertainty in future basal melt rates arising from multi-model differences in thermal forcing and how melt rates depend on that thermal forcing. To facilitate uncertainty quantification in sea level rise projections, we build, validate, and demonstrate projections from a computationally efficient statistical emulator of a high-resolution (4 km) Antarctic ice sheet model, the Community Ice Sheet Model version 2.1. The emulator is trained to a large (500-member) ensemble of 200-year-long 4 km resolution transient ice sheet simulations, whereby regional basal melt rates are perturbed by idealized (yet physically informed) trajectories. The main advantage of our emulation approach is that by sampling a wide range of possible basal melt trajectories, the emulator can be used to (1) produce probabilistic sea level rise projections over much larger Monte Carlo ensembles than are possible by direct numerical simulation alone, thereby providing better statistical characterization of uncertainties, and (2) predict the simulated ice sheet response under differing assumptions about basal melt characteristics as new oceanographic studies are published, without having to run additional numerical ice sheet simulations. As a proof of concept, we propagate uncertainties about future basal melt rate trajectories, derived from regional ocean models, to generate probabilistic sea level rise estimates for 100 and 200 years into the future.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Quantification of the REE 3+ aqua ions and chloride species in aqueous fluids by in situ Raman spectroscopy using perturbations of the water band

Acidic NaCl-rich aqueous fluids play a crucial role in forming hydrothermal rare earth elements (REE) mineral deposits. Aqueous REE mobility is mostly controlled by the stabilities of REE 3+ and REE chloride species. Our current knowledge of REE speciation is based on solubility data, thermodynamic models and in situ spectroscopic measurements, sometimes coupled with molecular simulations. Here, in this study, we investigate Nd and Yb speciation in pH2 Cl-bearing solutions at 25 °C and 0.1 MPa with variable Cl/REE ratios using Raman Spectroscopy in solutions with 0.1 to 0.6 mol/kg NdCl 3 or YbCl 3 and 0.2 to 3.2 mol/kg NaCl. Due to the challenges in resolving the REE-Cl band, we developed a new method using the water vibrational mode and multivariate curve resolution (MCR) analysis. The Raman spectra for the vibrational band of water (2700 to 3900 cm –1 ) were collected at 25 °C and fitted by three Gaussian sub-peaks, then quantified using MCR analysis to de-convolute the water band into bulk H 2 O and the perturbations caused by of Cl – , REE 3+ , and REE chloride species. REE speciation based on the perturbations of the water band indicates that REE 3+ aqua ions dominate acidic solutions at 25 °C, but up to ~20 mol% YbCl 2+ forms at high YbCl 3 concentrations. The new method is promising for quantifying in situ speciation of the REE 3+ aqua ions and REE chloride species in aqueous fluids while providing information on the hydration of ions. This method improves our molecular level understanding of REE aqueous species stability and their role in REE mobilization during fluid-rock interaction.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A Machine Learning Method for the Forensics Attribution of Separated Plutonium

Plutonium (Pu) source attribution would be a powerful tool to support nuclear nonproliferation efforts. This capability to find the source of a Pu sample would act as a deterrent to smuggling efforts, and also help regulatory agencies verify declared nuclear activities. Work at Texas A&M University yielded a nuclear forensics methodology, which is capable of determining separated Pu’s reactor of origin, fuel burnup, and the time since irradiation (TSI)—three parameters of interest. The methodology used a set of ten intra-element isotopic ratios found in separated Pu, which was compared to a library of isotopic ratio values produced using neutronics simulations for reactors of interest. By calculating the probability that unknown Pu sample’s isotopic ratio set matched a set in the library, the methodology could predict the three parameters of interest of the sample. One shortcoming of this methodology was an inability to correctly attribute spoofed Pu, where Pu sourced from two different reactors or two different fuel burnup levels are mixed. A new methodology to rectify this vulnerability using machine learning (ML) technique is developed, instead of the maximum likelihood calculation previously used and the results are satisfactory. The ML approach leverages the existing simulated data for training the algorithm, but use them efficiently by only using intra-element isotope ratios that contribute to the attribution one of the three parameters at a time. Previously, all isotope ratios were used to attribute all three parameters together. The new methodology attributes the Pu parameters in three steps, one for each parameter, rather than resolving all of the three parameters simultaneously like the previous maximum likelihood approach. First, a support vector machine classifier with a set of seven isotopic ratios finds the reactor of origin and a set of regression models trained using gaussian process predicts the burnup with a different set of seven isotopes. Finally, TSI is calculated analytically using decay equations. Thus far, the new methodology is capable of attributing pure Pu samples and has been validated using experimental data. The next step will to be augment the classifier training data set with spoofed Pu data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Towards Efficient Uncertainty estimation in deep learning for robust energy prediction in crystal materials

In material science, recent studies have started to explore the potential of using deep learning to improve property prediction from high-fidelity simulations, e.g, density functional theory (DFT). However, the design spaces are sometimes too large and intractable to sample completely. This results in a critical question that is how to evaluate the confidence and robustness of the prediction. In this paper, we propose an efficient approach to estimate uncertainty in deep learning using a single forward pass and then apply it for robust prediction of the total energy in crystal lattice structures. Our approach is built upon the deep kernel learning (DKL) that originally introduces to leverage the expressiveness of deep neural networks as input with a probabilistic prediction of Gaussian processes (GPs) as output. Existing DKL methods have difficulties in the accuracy of predictive uncertainty, training stability, and scaling to large datasets, which lead to significant barriers in real-world applications. We propose to address these challenges by using an inducing point approximate GP in feature space combined with spectral normalization as a regularization. We finally demonstrate our robust performance on an artificial example and a real-world application from materials chemistry.

Bi, Sirui↗

Real-world CMB lensing quadratic estimator power spectrum response

I describe a method to estimate response matrices of Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) lensing power spectra estimators to the true sky power under realistic conditions. Applicable to all lensing reconstruction pipelines based on quadratic estimators (QE), it uses a small number of Gaussian CMB Monte-Carlos and specially designed QE's in order to obtain sufficiently accurate matrices with little computational effort. This method may be used to improve the modelling of CMB lensing band-powers by incorporating at least some of the non-idealities encountered in CMB lensing reconstruction. These non-idealities always include masking, and often inhomogeneous filtering, either in the harmonic domain or pixel space. I obtain these matrices for Planck latest lensing reconstructions, and then show that the residual couplings induced by masking explain very well the residual multiplicative bias seen on the Planck simulations, removing the need for an empirical correction.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The effect of quasar redshift errors on Lyman-α forest correlation functions

ABSTRACT Using synthetic Lyman-α forests from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) survey, we present a study of the impact of errors in the estimation of quasar redshift on the Lyman-α correlation functions. Estimates of quasar redshift have large uncertainties of a few hundred km s−1 due to the broadness of the emission lines and the intrinsic shifts from other emission lines. We inject Gaussian random redshift errors into the mock quasar catalogues, and measure the auto-correlation and the Lyman-α-quasar cross-correlation functions. We find a smearing of the BAO feature in the radial direction, but changes in the peak position are negligible. However, we see a significant unphysical correlation for small separations transverse to the line of sight which increases with the amplitude of the redshift errors. We interpret this contamination as a result of the broadening of emission lines in the measured mean continuum, caused by quasar redshift errors, combined with the unrealistically strong clustering of the simulated quasars on small scales.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Faster spectral density calculation using energy moments

Abstract Accurate predictions of inclusive scattering cross sections in the linear response regime require efficient and controllable methods to calculate the spectral density in a strongly-correlated many-body system. In this work we reformulate the recently proposed Gaussian Integral Transform technique in terms of Fourier moments of the system Hamiltonian which can be computed efficiently on a quantum computer. One of the main advantages of this framework is that it allows for an important reduction of the computational cost by exploiting previous knowledge about the energy moments of the spectral density. For a simple model of medium mass nucleus like $$^{40}$$ 40 Ca and target energy resolution of 1 MeV we find an expected speed-up of $$\approx 125$$ ≈ 125 times for the calculation of the giant dipole response and of $$\approx 50$$ ≈ 50 times for the simulation of quasi-elastic electron scattering at typical momentum transfers.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

FY2021 Improvements to the New CTH Code Verification & Validation Test Suite

Over the past few years, the CTH multiphysics hydrocode has overhauled its software quality and testing processes, implementing current best practices in software quality and building a robust V&V test suite comprised of traditional hydrocode verification problems, including ASC Tri-Lab Test Suite and Enhanced Tri-Lab Test Suite problems, as well as validation problems for some of CTH’s most frequently used equations of state, materials models, and other key capabilities. Substantial progress towards building this new test suite was made in FY19 and FY20. In FY21, the test suite has been expanded to include verification and validation tests of the Steinberg-Guinan-Lund (ST) viscoplastic model and the Johnson Cook (JFRAC) fracture model. Additionally, two new verification tests were added, covering hydrodynamics and high explosive (HE) modeling capabilities: the Kidder Gaussian density problem and the Escape of HE Products (EHEP) problem from the Tri-Lab Test Suite. This report discusses each of these test problems in detail. Verification test results are compared to analytic solutions. Validation test results are compared to experimental data. Wherever possible, convergence or mesh refinement studies are included. Additionally, while implementing the Kidder verification problem, a bug was identified that affects the use of tables to initialize pressure or density in 1D or 2D calculations. A brief discussion of the bug and its fix is included. CTH demonstrates good performance overall on the new test suite problems. Simulation results showed good agreement with analytic solutions for the Kidder problem, with convergence rates ranging between 1.8 and sub-linear, and relatively good agreement for the EHEP problem, though convergence rates for pressure and density were nearly 0. The ST and JFRAC strain rate loading verification tests show good agreement with analytic solutions. Likewise, CTH simulation results show good agreement with experimental validation data, including Taylor rod impact testing, for the materials tested. Future V&V work will focus on adding 2D and 3D versions of existing verification tests as well as adding validation tests of other frequently used capabilities such as other fracture models.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Prediction of O and OH Adsorption on Transition Metal Oxide Surfaces from Bulk Descriptors

In the search for stable and active catalysts, density functional theory and machine learning (ML) based models can accelerate the screening of materials. While stability is conveniently addressed on the bulk level of computation, the modelling of catalytic activity requires expensive surface simulations. Here, in this work, we develop models for the surface adsorption energy of O and OH intermediates across a consistent and extensive dataset of pure transition metal oxide surfaces. We show that adsorption energies across metal oxidation states of +2 to +6 are well captured from the metal-oxygen bond strength extracted from the bulk level calculation. Specifically, we calculate the integrated crystal orbital Hamiltonian population (ICOHP) of the metal-oxygen bond in the bulk oxide and employ a simple normalization scheme to obtain a strong correlation with adsorption energetics. By combining our ICOHP descriptor with non DFT features in a Gaussian Process regression (GPR) model, we achieve high model accuracy with mean absolute errors of 0.166 and 0.219 eV for OH and O adsorption, respectively. By targeting the O-OH adsorption energy difference with our GPR model, we predict the the oxygen evolution reaction (OER) activity from bulk descriptors only. Furthermore, we utilize the strong correlation between the COHP and metal oxygen bond lengths to rapidly predict adsorption energetics and catalytic activity from the optimized bulk geometry. Our approach can enable an efficient search for active catalysts by eliminating the need for surface calculations in the initial screening phase.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

MOOSE ProbML: Parallelizable Probabilistic Machine Learning and Uncertainty Quantification Capabilities

The Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) is a widely used open- source finite element software for performing multiphysics multiscale simulations in a massively parallel fashion. Recently, the computational team at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has implemented Probabilistic Machine Learning (ProbML) capabilities in MOOSE—in a parallelized fashion—and enable active learning with large-scale computational models for tasks such as surrogate model development, scale bridging, forward/inverse uncertainty quantification (UQ), Bayesian optimization, etc. This presentation summarizes these developments in MOOSE along with demonstrations on several real applications relevant to nuclear energy. At the fundamental level, samplers like Monte Carlo/Latin Hypercube, variance reduction, parallelized Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) support uncertainty propagation in both forward and inverse settings. These samplers can be integrated with the Gaussian processes (GP) suite in MOOSE, which offer several variants like scalar GPs, multi-output GPs, and deep GPs, to enable active learning. These GPs can be tuned using gradient-based optimization methods like Adam and its variants or gradient-free methods like the elliptical slice sampler (a variant of MCMC adept under Gaussian settings) for more complex covariance kernels or likelihoods whose gradient computations can be cumbersome. A variety of batch acquisition functions permit parallelized evaluation of the computational model and support different learning objectives with high efficiency like Bayesian inference, global surrogate development, optimization, etc. Furthermore, libtorch integration supports training, evaluation, and re-training of neural networks and other complex machine learning models in active learning settings. The impacts of these developments are shown on several real applications: (1) nuclear fuel inverse UQ and model inadequacy assessment using the Kennedy O’Hagan framework; (2) uncertainty aware surrogate modeling for additive manufacturing to predict field quantities; (3) nuclear reactor rare events analysis; and (4) complex fluid flow prediction using a global surrogate with quantified prediction uncertainty. Finally, the outlook of MOOSE ProbML is discussed for both outer-loop and inner-loop computations in the broad view to accelerate fuels and materials qualification, address gaps in knowledge and data, and assess new reactor/fuel systems.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Quasi-Lindblad pseudomode theory for open quantum systems

Here, we introduce a new framework to study the dynamics of open quantum systems with linearly coupled Gaussian baths. Our approach replaces the continuous bath with an auxiliary discrete set of pseudomodes with dissipative dynamics, but we further relax the complete positivity requirement in the Lindblad master equation and formulate a quasi-Lindblad pseudomode theory. We show that this quasi-Lindblad pseudomode formulation directly leads to a representation of the bath correlation function in terms of a complex weighted sum of complex exponentials, an expansion that is known to be rapidly convergent in practice and thus leads to a compact set of pseudomodes. The pseudomode representation is not unique and can differ by a gauge choice. When the global dynamics can be simulated exactly, the system dynamics is unique and independent of the specific pseudomode representation. However, the gauge choice may affect the stability of the global dynamics, and we provide an analysis of why and when the global dynamics can retain stability despite losing positivity. We showcase the performance of this formulation across various spectral densities in both bosonic and fermionic problems, finding significant improvements over conventional pseudomode formulations.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Datasets for Custom-trained Machine-learning Interatomic Potentials: Nitric Acid Aqueous Solution

This dataset was generated using an iterative active learning strategy with the ArcaNN software package (https://github.com/arcann-chem/arcann_training) to train machine-learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) for aqueous nitric acid. Each active-learning cycle consisted of three stages: (1) training, (2) exploration, and (3) labeling. The initial training set comprised approximately 800 randomly selected configurations from a previous study by Lewis et al. (https://doi.org/10.1021/jp205510q), which investigated nitric acid solutions at 2, 3, 4, and 5 mol/L. For all configurations, single-point calculations of atomic forces and total energies were performed at the quantum density functional theory BLYP-D2 and PBE-D3 levels of theory using the CP2K Quickstep module. Valence electrons were treated explicitly, while core electrons on all atoms were represented by norm-conserving Goedecker–Teter–Hutter (GTH) pseudopotentials. Long-range dispersion interactions were accounted for using Grimme dispersion corrections. Wave functions were expanded in a mixed Gaussian-and-plane-wave scheme using TZV2P-MOLOPT basis sets for all elements and an 800 Ry auxiliary plane-wave cutoff for the electron density. Self-consistent field convergence was accelerated using orbital transformation and Direct Inversion in the Iterative Subspace, with a convergence threshold of 10^{-6}. All single-point calculations were carried out in periodic orthorhombic cells whose dimensions match those of the molecular configurations sampled from earlier trajectories. The CELL_REF keyword in CP2K was used to define a fixed reference cell, ensuring consistency in the reference data used for MLIP training, particularly when cell fluctuations are present in NpT simulations. The resulting high-fidelity energies and forces constitute the ground-truth labels used to train the MLIPs contained in this dataset.

Dinpajooh, Mohammadhasan [Pacific Northwest Nation↗

A multi-center quadrature scheme for the molecular continuum

We report a common way to evaluate electronic integrals for polyatomic molecules is to use Becke’s partitioning scheme (Becke and Chem, 1988) in conjunction with overlapping grids centered at each atomic site. The Becke scheme was designed for integrands that fall off rapidly at large distances, such as those approximating bound electronic states. When applied to states in the electronic continuum, however, Becke scheme exhibits slow convergence and it is highly redundant. Here, we present a modified version of Becke scheme that is applicable to functions of the electronic continuum, such as those involved in molecular photoionization and electron–molecule scattering, and which ensures convergence and efficiency comparable to those realized in the calculation of bound states. In this modified scheme, the atomic weights already present in Becke’s partition are smoothly switched off within a range of few bond lengths from their respective nuclei, and complemented by an asymptotically unitary weight. The atomic integrals are evaluated on small spherical grids, centered on each atom, with size commensurate to the support of the corresponding atomic weight. The residual integral of the interstitial and long-range region is evaluated with a central master grid. The accuracy of the method is demonstrated by evaluating integrals involving integrands containing Gaussian Type Orbitals and Yukawa potentials, on the atomic sites, as well as spherical Bessel functions centered on the master grid. These functions are representative of those encountered in realistic electron-scattering and photoionization calculations in polyatomic molecules.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Patterning of multicomponent elastic shells by gaussian curvature

Recent findings suggest that shell protein distribution and the morphology of bacterial microcompartments regulate the chemical fluxes facilitating reactions which dictate their biological function. Here, we explore how the morphology and component patterning are coupled through the competition of mean and gaussian bending energies in multicomponent elastic shells that form three-component irregular polyhedra. We observe two softer components with lower bending rigidities allocated on the edges and vertices while the harder component occupies the faces. When subjected to a nonzero interfacial line tension, the two softer components further separate and pattern into subdomains that are mediated by the gaussian curvature. We find that this degree of fractionation is maximized when there is a weaker line tension and when the ratio of bending rigidities between the two softer domains ≈2. Our results reveal a patterning mechanism in multicomponent shells that can capture the observed morphologies of bacterial microcompartments, and moreover, can be realized in synthetic vesicles.

Monte Carlo methods↗