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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 667 records · Page 37
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Chemical Robotics Enabled Exploration of Stability in Multicomponent Lead Halide Perovskites via Machine Learning

Metal halide perovskites have attracted immense interest as a promising material for a variety of optoelectronic and sensing applications. However, issues regarding long-term stability have emerged as the key bottleneck for commercialization. Here, we develop an automated experimental workflow based on combinatorial synthesis and rapid throughput characterization to explore long-term stability of these materials in ambient conditions. We apply it to four model perovskite systems: MA x FA y Cs 1–x–y PbBr 3 , MA x FA y Cs 1–x–y PbI 3 , Cs x FA y MA 1–x–y Pb(Br x+y I 1–x–y ) 3 , and Cs x MA y FA 1–x–y Pb(I x+y Br 1–x–y ) 3 . Non-negative matrix factorization and Gaussian process regression are used to interpolate the photoluminescent behavior of the phase diagram. This interpolative regression analysis helps to distinguish mixtures that form solid solutions from those that segregate into multiple materials, pointing out the most stable regions of the phase diagram. Here, we find stability dependence on composition to be nonuniform within the composition space, suggesting the presence of potential preferential compositional regions. This proposed workflow is universal and can be applied to other solution-processable materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Uncertainty-Aware Machine Learning for Small-Angle X-ray Scattering Analysis in Autonomous Experimentation

Small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) is a powerful high-throughput characterization tool for probing nanoscale structure in native sample environments, providing real-time morphological information such as nanoparticle size and shape during synthesis. However, automated SAXS data analysis for extracting meaningful structural parameters is non-trivial and remains a bottleneck in closed-loop experimentation towards autonomous materials discovery, which demands fast, reliable, and uncertainty-aware data analysis. Here, we develop a machine-learning approach for automated SAXS analysis tailored to closed-loop nanoparticle synthesis. A Random Forest (RF) regression model is trained on 100,000 synthetic SAXS curves generated from polydisperse spherical nanoparticles with realistic background contributions. Using normalized one-dimensional SAXS intensity profiles as input, the RF model directly predicts nanoparticle radius, size polydispersity, and background parameters, while the ensemble standard deviation across trees provides built-in uncertainty quantification (UQ). On synthetic data, we show that combining fit-quality metrics (R 2 , MAE) with thresholds on prediction uncertainty reliably identifies accurate parameter estimates without access to ground truth. We then apply the trained model to 365 experimental SAXS profiles of citrate-reduced gold nanoparticles synthesized using an automated droplet-flow microreactor with in situ SAXS at a synchrotron beamline, classifying the results into high- and low-confidence subsets based on UQ metrics. Finally, we integrate RF-based SAXS analysis into a simulated closed-loop optimization campaign using Gaussian process Bayesian optimization to minimize nanoparticle polydispersity, benchmarking against conventional automated Levenberg–Marquardt fitting. The RF-guided campaign exhibits substantially faster convergence and lower relative opportunity cost (∼0.07 vs ∼0.3), demonstrating that uncertainty-aware machine-learning SAXS analysis significantly enhances the efficiency and robustness of autonomous nanomaterials synthesis workflows.

Bayesian optimization↗
DOE OSTI2022

Global Sensitivity Analysis Using the Ultra‐Low Resolution Energy Exascale Earth System Model

Abstract For decades, Arctic temperatures have increased twice as fast as average global temperatures. As a first step toward quantifying parametric uncertainty in Arctic climate, we performed a variance‐based global sensitivity analysis (GSA) using a fully coupled, ultra‐low resolution (ULR) configuration of version 1 of the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1). Specifically, we quantified the sensitivity of six quantities of interests (QOIs), which characterize changes in Arctic climate over a 75 year period, to uncertainties in nine model parameters spanning the sea ice, atmosphere, and ocean components of E3SMv1. Sensitivity indices for each QOI were computed with a Gaussian process emulator using 139 random realizations of the random parameters and fixed preindustrial forcing. Uncertainties in the atmospheric parameters in the Cloud Layers Unified by Binormals (CLUBB) scheme were found to have the most impact on sea ice status and the larger Arctic climate. Our results demonstrate the importance of conducting sensitivity analyses with fully coupled climate models. The ULR configuration makes such studies computationally feasible today due to its low computational cost. When advances in computational power and modeling algorithms enable the tractable use of higher‐resolution models, our results will provide a baseline that can quantify the impact of model resolution on the accuracy of sensitivity indices. Moreover, the confidence intervals provided by our study, which we used to quantify the impact of the number of model evaluations on the accuracy of sensitivity estimates, have the potential to inform the computational resources needed for future sensitivity studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Differentiable Hydrology Approach for Modeling With Time-Varying Parameters

In the analysis of observational data with mathematical models, it is often desirable to let one or more model parameters vary with time to account for changing environmental conditions or to offer more flexibility. A standard approach for dynamic models is to allow for the number of parameters to grow as a function of time, leading to a high-dimensional inference problem for long data records. We propose using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, a gradient-based Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, to perform Bayesian inference for time-varying parameters (TVP) in hydrology models. As derivatives of model error functions with regard to parameters are not available in closed form, we implemented the GR4J rainfall-runoff models in Theano/PyMC3, and Jax/NumPyro, allowing for the application of automatic differentiation techniques. A simulation experiment assessing the viability of these methods for recovering underlying temporal variation in parameters indicates that a discrete Gaussian random walk-based prior appears to be best suited across a range of scenarios while the continuous-time Gaussian process compares relatively poorly. In an analysis of 20 years of daily real-world streamflow records from the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) hydrology data set with increasing data sparsity and at multiple temporal resolutions, we find that TVP inference with gradient-based MCMC is a flexible and reliable approach for analyzing hydrology models with dynamic parameter sets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Framework for Parametric and Predictive Uncertainty Quantification in the E3SM Land Model: Assessing Site and Observable Generalizability

Quantifying parametric uncertainty using observations from individual sites provides a critical foundation for Earth system modeling, serving as a necessary first step before scaling up to regional or global applications. This study introduces a novel computational framework designed to enhance model predictability by reducing parametric uncertainty and assessing site and observable generalizability using various observational constraints. The framework integrates five components: Model Simulation, Statistical Emulation, Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA), Model Calibration, and Model Prediction. Using the E3SM land model, we simulated site-level land-atmosphere carbon and energy fluxes from 2003 to 2007 across five evergreen needleleaf FLUXNET sites, perturbing 26 vegetation-related model parameters. Gaussian process emulators were employed to expedite GSA and model calibration. Four critical parameters that strongly influence selected land-atmosphere fluxes were identified by GSA. Bayesian approaches were used to infer parameter probability distributions leveraging synthetic data and FLUXNET observations. The results reveal that posterior parameter distributions vary significantly across different sites and observables within the same plant functional type. Probabilistic predictions indicate that parameters calibrated at one site can enhance predictive accuracy at other sites, although site heterogeneity may sometimes outweigh parametric uncertainty. Additionally, the probabilistic predictions demonstrate that calibration for one variable can also improve predictability for other variables, thereby maximizing predictive capabilities with limited observations. This framework provides a powerful approach for reducing parametric uncertainty in Earth system models and deepening our understanding of carbon dynamics and energy cycles. Its adaptability makes it a valuable tool for broader applications in Earth system modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

To address surface reaction network complexity using scaling relations machine learning and DFT calculations

Surface reaction networks involving hydrocarbons exhibit enormous complexity with thousands of species and reactions for all but the very simplest of chemistries. We present a framework for optimization under uncertainty for heterogeneous catalysis reaction networks using surrogate models that are trained on the fly. The surrogate model is constructed by teaching a Gaussian process adsorption energies based on group additivity fingerprints, combined with transition-state scaling relations and a simple classifier for determining the rate-limiting step. The surrogate model is iteratively used to predict the most important reaction step to be calculated explicitly with computationally demanding electronic structure theory. Applying these methods to the reaction of syngas on rhodium(111), we identify the most likely reaction mechanism. Lastly, propagating uncertainty throughout this process yields the likelihood that the final mechanism is complete given measurements on only a subset of the entire network and uncertainty in the underlying density functional theory calculations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Active learning of reactive Bayesian force fields applied to heterogeneous catalysis dynamics of H/Pt

Abstract Atomistic modeling of chemically reactive systems has so far relied on either expensive ab initio methods or bond-order force fields requiring arduous parametrization. Here, we describe a Bayesian active learning framework for autonomous “on-the-fly” training of fast and accurate reactive many-body force fields during molecular dynamics simulations. At each time-step, predictive uncertainties of a sparse Gaussian process are evaluated to automatically determine whether additional ab initio training data are needed. We introduce a general method for mapping trained kernel models onto equivalent polynomial models whose prediction cost is much lower and independent of the training set size. As a demonstration, we perform direct two-phase simulations of heterogeneous H 2 turnover on the Pt(111) catalyst surface at chemical accuracy. The model trains itself in three days and performs at twice the speed of a ReaxFF model, while maintaining much higher fidelity to DFT and excellent agreement with experiment.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine learning-assisted crystal engineering of a zeolite

Abstract It is shown that Machine Learning (ML) algorithms can usefully capture the effect of crystallization composition and conditions (inputs) on key microstructural characteristics (outputs) of faujasite type zeolites (structure types FAU, EMT, and their intergrowths), which are widely used zeolite catalysts and adsorbents. The utility of ML (in particular, Geometric Harmonics) toward learning input-output relationships of interest is demonstrated, and a comparison with Neural Networks and Gaussian Process Regression, as alternative approaches, is provided. Through ML, synthesis conditions were identified to enhance the Si/Al ratio of high purity FAU zeolite to the hitherto highest level (i.e., Si/Al = 3.5) achieved via direct (not seeded), and organic structure-directing-agent-free synthesis from sodium aluminosilicate sols. The analysis of the ML algorithms’ results offers the insight that reduced Na 2 O content is key to formulating FAU materials with high Si/Al ratio. An acid catalyst prepared by partial ion exchange of the high-Si/Al-ratio FAU (Si/Al = 3.5) exhibits improved proton reactivity (as well as specific activity, per unit mass of catalyst) in propane cracking and dehydrogenation compared to the catalyst prepared from the previously reported highest Si/Al ratio (Si/Al = 2.8).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Task-oriented machine learning surrogates for tipping points of agent-based models

We present a machine learning framework bridging manifold learning, neural networks, Gaussian processes, and Equation-Free multiscale approach, for the construction of different types of effective reduced order models from detailed agent-based simulators and the systematic multiscale numerical analysis of their emergent dynamics. The specific tasks of interest here include the detection of tipping points, and the uncertainty quantification of rare events near them. Our illustrative examples are an event-driven, stochastic financial market model describing the mimetic behavior of traders, and a compartmental stochastic epidemic model on an Erdös-Rényi network. We contrast the pros and cons of the different types of surrogate models and the effort involved in learning them. Importantly, the proposed framework reveals that, around the tipping points, the emergent dynamics of both benchmark examples can be effectively described by a one-dimensional stochastic differential equation, thus revealing the intrinsic dimensionality of the normal form of the specific type of the tipping point. This allows a significant reduction in the computational cost of the tasks of interest.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Active learning for accelerated design of layered materials

Hetero-structures made from vertically stacked monolayers of transition metal dichalcogenides hold great potential for optoelectronic and thermoelectric devices. Discovery of the optimal layered material for specific applications necessitates the estimation of key material properties, such as electronic band structure and thermal transport coefficients. However, screening of material properties via brute force ab initio calculations of the entire material structure space exceeds the limits of current computing resources. Moreover, the functional dependence of material properties on the structures is often complicated, making simplistic statistical procedures for prediction difficult to employ without large amounts of data collection. Here, we present a Gaussian process regression model, which predicts material properties of an input hetero-structure, as well as an active learning model based on Bayesian optimization, which can efficiently discover the optimal hetero-structure using a minimal number of ab initio calculations. The electronic band gap, conduction/valence band dispersions, and thermoelectric performance are used as representative material properties for prediction and optimization. The Materials Project platform is used for electronic structure computation, while the BoltzTraP code is used to compute thermoelectric properties. Bayesian optimization is shown to significantly reduce the computational cost of discovering the optimal structure when compared with finding an optimal structure by building a regression model to predict material properties. The models can be used for predictions with respect to any material property and our software, including data preparation code based on the Python Materials Genomics (PyMatGen) library as well as python-based machine learning code, is available open source.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

On-the-fly active learning of interpretable Bayesian force fields for atomistic rare events

Abstract Machine learned force fields typically require manual construction of training sets consisting of thousands of first principles calculations, which can result in low training efficiency and unpredictable errors when applied to structures not represented in the training set of the model. This severely limits the practical application of these models in systems with dynamics governed by important rare events, such as chemical reactions and diffusion. We present an adaptive Bayesian inference method for automating the training of interpretable, low-dimensional, and multi-element interatomic force fields using structures drawn on the fly from molecular dynamics simulations. Within an active learning framework, the internal uncertainty of a Gaussian process regression model is used to decide whether to accept the model prediction or to perform a first principles calculation to augment the training set of the model. The method is applied to a range of single- and multi-element systems and shown to achieve a favorable balance of accuracy and computational efficiency, while requiring a minimal amount of ab initio training data. We provide a fully open-source implementation of our method, as well as a procedure to map trained models to computationally efficient tabulated force fields.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Autonomous scanning probe microscopy investigations over WS2 and Au{111}

Abstract Individual atomic defects in 2D materials impact their macroscopic functionality. Correlating the interplay is challenging, however, intelligent hyperspectral scanning tunneling spectroscopy (STS) mapping provides a feasible solution to this technically difficult and time consuming problem. Here, dense spectroscopic volume is collected autonomously via Gaussian process regression, where convolutional neural networks are used in tandem for spectral identification. Acquired data enable defect segmentation, and a workflow is provided for machine-driven decision making during experimentation with capability for user customization. We provide a means towards autonomous experimentation for the benefit of both enhanced reproducibility and user-accessibility. Hyperspectral investigations on WS 2 sulfur vacancy sites are explored, which is combined with local density of states confirmation on the Au{111} herringbone reconstruction. Chalcogen vacancies, pristine WS 2 , Au face-centered cubic, and Au hexagonal close-packed regions are examined and detected by machine learning methods to demonstrate the potential of artificial intelligence for hyperspectral STS mapping.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Rapid design of top-performing metal-organic frameworks with qualitative representations of building blocks

Abstract Data-driven materials design often encounters challenges where systems possess qualitative (categorical) information. Specifically, representing Metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) through different building blocks poses a challenge for designers to incorporate qualitative information into design optimization, and leads to a combinatorial challenge, with large number of MOFs that could be explored. In this work, we integrated Latent Variable Gaussian Process (LVGP) and Multi-Objective Batch-Bayesian Optimization (MOBBO) to identify top-performing MOFs adaptively, autonomously, and efficiently. We showcased that our method (i) requires no specific physical descriptors and only uses building blocks that construct the MOFs for global optimization through qualitative representations, (ii) is application and property independent, and (iii) provides an interpretable model of building blocks with physical justification. By searching only ~1% of the design space, LVGP-MOBBO identified all MOFs on the Pareto front and 97% of the 50 top-performing designs for the CO 2 working capacity and CO 2 /N 2 selectivity properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Complexity of many-body interactions in transition metals via machine-learned force fields from the TM23 data set

Abstract This work examines challenges associated with the accuracy of machine-learned force fields (MLFFs) for bulk solid and liquid phases ofd-block elements. In exhaustive detail, we contrast the performance of force, energy, and stress predictions across the transition metals for two leading MLFF models: a kernel-based atomic cluster expansion method implemented using sparse Gaussian processes (FLARE), and an equivariant message-passing neural network (NequIP). Early transition metals present higher relative errors and are more difficult to learn relative to late platinum- and coinage-group elements, and this trend persists across model architectures. Trends in complexity of interatomic interactions for different metals are revealed via comparison of the performance of representations with different many-body order and angular resolution. Using arguments based on perturbation theory on the occupied and unoccupieddstates near the Fermi level, we determine that the large, sharpddensity of states both above and below the Fermi level in early transition metals leads to a more complex, harder-to-learn potential energy surface for these metals. Increasing the fictitious electronic temperature (smearing) modifies the angular sensitivity of forces and makes the early transition metal forces easier to learn. This work illustrates challenges in capturing intricate properties of metallic bonding with current leading MLFFs and provides a reference data set for transition metals, aimed at benchmarking the accuracy and improving the development of emerging machine-learned approximations.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2025

Active oversight and quality control in standard Bayesian optimization for autonomous experiments

The fusion of experimental automation and machine learning has catalyzed a new era in materials research, prominently featuring Gaussian Process (GP) Bayesian Optimization (BO) driven autonomous experiments. Here we introduce a Dual-GP approach that enhances traditional GPBO by adding a secondary surrogate model to dynamically constrain the experimental space based on real-time assessments of the raw experimental data. This Dual-GP approach enhances the optimization efficiency of traditional GPBO by isolating more promising space for BO sampling and more valuable experimental data for primary GP training. We also incorporate a flexible, human-in-the-loop intervention method in the Dual-GP workflow to adjust for unanticipated results. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the Dual-GP model with synthetic model data and implement this approach in autonomous pulsed laser deposition experimental data. This Dual-GP approach has broad applicability in diverse GPBO-driven experimental settings, providing a more adaptable and precise framework for refining autonomous experimentation for more efficient optimization.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Probing multi-dimensional composition spaces in search of strong metallic alloys

Refractory complex concentrated alloys (RCCA) offer exceptionally high-temperature strength compared to pure metals and dilute alloys, but predictive theory for RCCA design is lacking. We present large-scale molecular Dynamics (MD) simulations of crystal plasticity to explore alloy compositions for maximum mechanical strength, focusing on Fe-Ta-W and Nb-Ta-Mo-W alloy families modeled with Embedded Atom Model (EAM) and Spectral Neighbor Analysis Potentials (SNAP). To efficiently guide the search for strong alloy compositions, we employ iterative optimization using Gaussian process regression. Many simulated RCCA compositions exhibit pronounced cocktail strengthening, with strengths surpassing their strongest constituent metal, tungsten. Contrary to expectations, the highest strength is found on binary edges of the RCCA composition space. Detailed analyses of atomistic simulations reveal that, similar to pure BCC metals, plastic response in RCCA is primarily governed by screw dislocations. However, at large strains, dislocation multiplication and interactions (Taylor hardening) become the dominant mechanisms contributing to RCCA strength.

Materials science↗
DOE OSTI2024

Unveiling the effect of composition on nuclear waste immobilization glasses’ durability by nonparametric machine learning

Abstract Ensuring the long-term chemical durability of glasses is critical for nuclear waste immobilization operations. Durable glasses usually undergo qualification for disposal based on their response to standardized tests such as the product consistency test or the vapor hydration test (VHT). The VHT uses elevated temperature and water vapor to accelerate glass alteration and the formation of secondary phases. Understanding the relationship between glass composition and VHT response is of fundamental and practical interest. However, this relationship is complex, non-linear, and sometimes fairly variable, posing challenges in identifying the distinct effect of individual oxides on VHT response. Here, we leverage a dataset comprising 654 Hanford low-activity waste (LAW) glasses across a wide compositional envelope and employ various machine learning techniques to explore this relationship. We find that Gaussian process regression (GPR), a nonparametric regression method, yields the highest predictive accuracy. By utilizing the trained model, we discern the influence of each oxide on the glasses’ VHT response. Moreover, we discuss the trade-off between underfitting and overfitting for extrapolating the material performance in the context of sparse and heterogeneous datasets.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Advances in Kriging-Based Autonomous X-Ray Scattering Experiments

Autonomous experimentation is an emerging paradigm for scientific discovery, wherein measurement instruments are augmented with decision-making algorithms, allowing them to autonomously explore parameter spaces of interest. We have recently demonstrated a generalized approach to autonomous experimental control, based on generating a surrogate model to interpolate experimental data, and a corresponding uncertainty model, which are computed using a Gaussian process regression known as ordinary Kriging (OK). We demonstrated the successful application of this method to exploring materials science problems using x-ray scattering measurements at a synchrotron beamline. Here, we report several improvements to this methodology that overcome limitations of traditional Kriging methods. The variogram underlying OK is global and thus insensitive to local data variation. We augment the Kriging variance with model-based measures, for instance providing local sensitivity by including the gradient of the surrogate model. As with most statistical regression methods, OK minimizes the number of measurements required to achieve a particular model quality. However, in practice this may not be the most stringent experimental constraint; e.g. the goal may instead be to minimize experiment duration or material usage. We define an adaptive cost function, allowing the autonomous method to balance information gain against measured experimental cost. We provide synthetic and experimental demonstrations, validating that this improved algorithm yields more efficient autonomous data collection.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗