Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “GEOMAGNETIC STORM”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 667 records · Page 37
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2017

NASA's Space Launch System: Deep-Space Delivery for Smallsats

Designed for human exploration missions into deep space, NASA's Space Launch System (SLS) represents a new spaceflight infrastructure asset, enabling a wide variety of unique utilization opportunities. While primarily focused on launching the large systems needed for crewed spaceflight beyond Earth orbit, SLS also offers a game-changing capability for the deployment of small satellites to deep-space destinations, beginning with its first flight. Currently, SLS is making rapid progress toward readiness for its first launch in two years, using the initial configuration of the vehicle, which is capable of delivering 70 metric tons (t) to Low Earth Orbit (LEO). On its first flight test of the Orion spacecraft around the moon, accompanying Orion on SLS will be small-satellite secondary payloads, which will deploy in cislunar space. The deployment berths are sized for "6U" CubeSats, and on EM-1 the spacecraft will be deployed into cislunar space following Orion separate from the SLS Interim Cryogenic Propulsion Stage. Payloads in 6U class will be limited to 14 kg maximum mass. Secondary payloads on EM-1 will be launched in the Orion Stage Adapter (OSA). Payload dispensers will be mounted on specially designed brackets, each attached to the interior wall of the OSA. For the EM-1 mission, a total of fourteen brackets will be installed, allowing for thirteen payload locations. The final location will be used for mounting an avionics unit, which will include a battery and sequencer for executing the mission deployment sequence. Following the launch of EM-1, deployments of the secondary payloads will commence after sufficient separation of the Orion spacecraft to the upper stage vehicle to minimize any possible contact of the deployed CubeSats to Orion. Currently this is estimated to require approximately 4 hours. The allowed deployment window for the CubeSats will be from the time the upper stage disposal maneuvers are complete to up to 10 days after launch. The upper stage will fly past the moon at a perigee of approximately 100km, and this closest approach will occur about 5 days after launch. The limiting factor for the latest deployment time is the available power in the sequencer system. Several NASA Mission Directorates were involved in the development of programs for the competition, selection, and development of EM-1 payloads that support directorate priorities. CubeSat payloads on EM-1 will include both NASA research experiments and spacecraft developed by industry, international and potentially academia partners. The Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate (HEOMD) Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) Division was allocated five payload opportunities on the EM-1 mission. Near Earth Asteroid (NEA) Scout is designed to rendezvous with and characterize a candidate NEA. A solar sail, an innovation the spacecraft will demonstrated for the CubeSat class, will provide propulsion. Lunar Flashlight will use a green propellant system and will search for potential ice deposits in the moon's permanently shadowed craters. BioSentinel is a yeast radiation biosensor, planned to measure the effects of space radiation on deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA). Lunar Icecube, a collaboration with Morehead State University, will prospect for water in ice, liquid, and vapor forms as well as other lunar volatiles from a low-perigee, highly inclined lunar orbit using a compact Infrared spectrometer. Skyfire, a partnership with Lockheed Martin, is a technology demonstration mission that will perform a lunar flyby, collecting spectroscopy, and thermography data to address questions related to surface characterization, remote sensing, and site selection. NASA's Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD) was allocated three payload opportunities on the EM-1 mission. These slots will be filled via the Centennial Challenges Program, NASA's flagship program for technology prize competitions, which directly engages the public, academia, and industry in open prize competitions to stimulate innovation. The NASA Science Mission Directorate (SMD) was allocated two payload opportunities on the EM-1 mission. The CubeSat Mission to Study Solar Particles (CuSP) payload will study the sources and acceleration mechanisms of solar and interplanetary particles in near-Earth orbit, support space weather research by determining proton radiation levels during Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events and identifying suprathermal properties that could help predict geomagnetic storms. The LunaH-Map payload will help scientists understand the quantity of H-bearing materials in lunar cold traps (~10 km), determine the concentration of H-bearing materials with 1m depth, and constrain the vertical distribution of H-bearing materials. The final three payload opportunities for the EM-1 mission were allocated for NASA's international space agency counterparts. The flight opportunities are intended to benefit the international space agency and NASA as well as further the collective space exploration goals. ArgoMoon is sponsored by ESA/ASI and will fly along with the ICPS on its disposal trajectory to perform proximity operations with the ICPS post-disposal, take external imagery of engineering and historical significance, and perform an optical communications demonstration. EQUULEUS, sponsored by JAXA, will fly to a libration orbit around the Earth-Moon L2 point and demonstrate trajectory control techniques within the Sun-Earth- Moon region for the first time by a nano spacecraft. The mission will also contribute to the future human exploration scenario by understanding the radiation environment in geospace and deep space, characterizing the flux of impacting meteors on the far side of the moon, and demonstrating the future deep space exploration scenario using the "deep space port" at Lagrange points. OMOTENASHI, also sponsored by JAXA, will land the smallest lunar lander to date on the lunar surface to demonstrate the feasibility of the hardware for distributed cooperative exploration system. Small landers will enable multi-point exploration, which is complimentary with large-scale human exploration. Once on the lunar surface, the OMOTENASHI spacecraft will observe the radiation and soil environments of the lunar surface by active radiation measurements and soil shear measurements. Following EM-1, Space Launch System will evolve to the more-powerful Block 1B configuration, which uses a new Exploration Upper Stage to increase the vehicle's LEO payload capability from 70 t to 105 t. With that transition, the Orion Stage Adapter, which will carry the secondary payloads on EM-1, will be phased out, and a new Universal Stage Adapter will be introduced, creating opportunities for flying larger secondary payloads. This paper will provide a brief status of SLS progress toward first launch; an overview of smallsat accommodations, integration, and operations on EM-1; information about the specific payloads flying on that launch; and a discussion of future accommodations and opportunities for secondary payloads on SLS for Exploration Mission-2 and beyond.

Robinson, Kimberly F.↗
NASA NTRS2017

NASA's Space Launch System: Deep-Space Opportunities for SmallSats

Designed for human exploration missions into deep space, NASA's Space Launch System (SLS) represents a new spaceflight infrastructure asset, enabling a wide variety of unique utilization opportunities. While primarily focused on launching the large systems needed for crewed spaceflight beyond Earth orbit, SLS also offers a game-changing capability for the deployment of small satellites to deep-space destinations, beginning with its first flight. Currently, SLS is making rapid progress toward readiness for its first launch in two years, using the initial configuration of the vehicle, which is capable of delivering 70 metric tons (t) to Low Earth Orbit (LEO). On its first flight test of the Orion spacecraft around the moon, accompanying Orion on SLS will be small-satellite secondary payloads, which will deploy in cislunar space. The deployment berths are sized for "6U" CubeSats, and on EM-1 the spacecraft will be deployed into cislunar space following Orion separate from the SLS Interim Cryogenic Propulsion Stage. Payloads in 6U class will be limited to 14 kg maximum mass. Secondary payloads on EM-1 will be launched in the Orion Stage Adapter (OSA). Payload dispensers will be mounted on specially designed brackets, each attached to the interior wall of the OSA. For the EM-1 mission, a total of fourteen brackets will be installed, allowing for thirteen payload locations. The final location will be used for mounting an avionics unit, which will include a battery and sequencer for executing the mission deployment sequence. Following the launch of EM-1, deployments of the secondary payloads will commence after sufficient separation of the Orion spacecraft to the upper stage vehicle to minimize any possible contact of the deployed cubesats to Orion. Currently this is estimated to require approximately 4 hours. The allowed deployment window for the cubesats will be from the time the upper stage disposal maneuvers are complete to up to 10 days after launch. The upper stage will fly past the moon at a perigee of approximately 100km, and this closest approach will occur about 5 days after launch. The limiting factor for the latest deployment time is the available power in the sequencer system. Several NASA Mission Directorates were involved in the development of programs for the competition, selection, and development of EM-1 payloads that support directorate priorities. CubeSat payloads on EM-1 will include both NASA research experiments and spacecraft developed by industry, international and potentially academia partners. The Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate (HEOMD) Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) Division was allocated five payload opportunities on the EM-1 mission. Near Earth Asteroid (NEA) Scout is designed to rendezvous with and characterize a candidate NEA. A solar sail, an innovation the spacecraft will demonstrated for the CubeSat class, will provide propulsion. Lunar Flashlight will use a green propellant system and will search for potential ice deposits in the moon's permanently shadowed craters. BioSentinel is a yeast radiation biosensor, planned to measure the effects of space radiation on deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA). Lunar Icecube, a collaboration with Morehead State University, will prospect for water in ice, liquid, and vapor forms as well as other lunar volatiles from a low-perigee, highly inclined lunar orbit using a compact Infrared spectrometer. Skyfire, a partnership with Lockheed Martin, is a technology demonstration mission that will perform a lunar flyby, collecting spectroscopy, and thermography data to address questions related to surface characterization, remote sensing, and site selection. NASA's Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD) was allocated three payload opportunities on the EM-1 mission. These slots will be filled via the 2 Centennial Challenges Program, NASA's flagship program for technology prize competitions, which directly engages the public, academia, and industry in open prize competitions to stimulate innovation. The NASA Science Mission Directorate (SMD) was allocated two payload opportunities on the EM-1 mission. The CubeSat Mission to Study Solar Particles (CuSP) payload will study the sources and acceleration mechanisms of solar and interplanetary particles in near-Earth orbit, support space weather research by determining proton radiation levels during Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events and identifying suprathermal properties that could help predict geomagnetic storms. The LunaH-Map payload will help scientists understand the quantity of H-bearing materials in lunar cold traps (~10 km), determine the concentration of H-bearing materials with 1m depth, and constrain the vertical distribution of H-bearing materials. The final three payload opportunities for the EM-1 mission were allocated for NASA's international space agency counterparts. The flight opportunities are intended to benefit the international space agency and NASA as well as further the collective space exploration goals. ArgoMoon is sponsored by ESA/ASI and will fly along with the ICPS on its disposal trajectory to perform proximity operations with the ICPS post-disposal, take external imagery of engineering and historical significance, and perform an optical communications demonstration. EQUULEUS, sponsored by JAXA, will fly to a libration orbit around the Earth-Moon L2 point and demonstrate trajectory control techniques within the Sun-Earth-Moon region for the first time by a nano spacecraft. The mission will also contribute to the future human exploration scenario by understanding the radiation environment in geospace and deep space, characterizing the flux of impacting meteors on the far side of the moon, and demonstrating the future deep space exploration scenario using the "deep space port" at Lagrange points. OMOTENASHI, also sponsored by JAXA, will land the smallest lunar lander to date on the lunar surface to demonstrate the feasibility of the hardware for distributed cooperative exploration system. Small landers will enable multi-point exploration, which is complimentary with large-scale human exploration. Once on the lunar surface, the OMOTENASHI spacecraft will observe the radiation and soil environments of the lunar surface by active radiation measurements and soil shear measurements. Following EM-1, Space Launch System will evolve to the more-powerful Block 1B configuration, which uses a new Exploration Upper Stage to increase the vehicle's LEO payload capability from 70 t to 105 t. With that transition, the Orion Stage Adapter, which will carry the secondary payloads on EM-1, will be phased out, and a new Universal Stage Adapter will be introduced, creating opportunities for flying larger secondary payloads. This paper will provide a brief status of SLS progress toward first launch; an overview of smallsat accommodations, integration, and operations on EM-1; information about the specific payloads flying on that launch; and a discussion of future accommodations and opportunities for secondary payloads on SLS for Exploration Mission-2 and beyond.

Robinson, Kimberly F.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Earth Observing System (EOS) Aqua & Aura Space Weather Effects on Operational Collision Avoidance

This presentation will describe recent EOS Aqua and Aura operational collision avoidance experience during periods of solar and geomagnetic storm activity. It will highlight challenges faced by the operations team during short-notice, high-risk predicted close approaches. The presentation will highlight the evolution of the operational collision avoidance process for the EOS Aqua and Aura missions. The presentation will highlight operational challenges that have occurred, process improvements that have been implemented and identify potential future challenges.

Operational collision avoidance↗
NASA NTRS2018

Sun-to-Earth Propagation of the 2015 June 21 Coronal Mass Ejection Revealed by Optical, EUV, and Radio Observations

We investigate the propagation of the 2015 June 21 CME-driven shock as revealed by the type II bursts at metricand longer wavelengths and coronagraph observations. The CME was associated with the second largest geomagneticstorm of solar cycle 24 and a large solar energetic particle (SEP) event. The eruption consisted of twoM-class flares, with the first one being confined, with no metric or interplanetary radio bursts. However, therewas intense microwave burst, indicating accelerated particles injected toward the Sun. The second flare was eruptive that resulted in a halo CME. The CME was deflected primarily by an equatorial coronal hole that resulted in the modification of the intensity profile of the associated SEP event and the duration of the CME at Earth. The interplanetary type II burst was particularly intense and was visible from the corona all the way to the vicinity of the Wind spacecraft with fundamental-harmonic structure. We computed the shock speed using the type II drift rates at various heliocentric distances and obtained information on the evolution of the shock that matched coronagraph observations near the Sun and in-situ observations near Earth. The depth of the geomagnetic storm is consistent with the 1-AU speed of the CME and the magnitude of the southward component.

Gopalswamy, N.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Magnetospheric Constellation: Leveraging Space 2.0 for Big Science

Earth's magnetosphere is a large magnetic cavity formed through the interaction of the solar wind and Earth's intrinsic magnetic field. Solar wind energy enters this cavity through a boundary - the magnetopause - separating Earth's field from the solar wind. This energy leads to many forms of "space weather", including the aurora, geomagnetic storms, and energization of the Van Allen radiation belts. Despite decades of research, we still do not understand the extent of dayside reconnection sites, nor do we have a quantifiable understanding of how much energy enters the magnetosphere during different solar wind conditions - necessary for space weather prediction. On the nightside, impulsive flows at various spatial and temporal scales occur frequently during storms and substorms, and couple to the ionosphere through still unresolved physical mechanisms. Because the magnetosphere is so large, it has been understood since the dawn of the space age that a full understanding of this complex region could only be achieved with a large fleet of in situ spacecraft. NASA has studied one such constellation, the socalled "Magnetospheric Constellation" (MagCon), since the1990's, but it is deemed too expensive to implement using traditional approaches. The CubeSat/ SmallSat revolution represents a fundamental disruption to traditional mission architectures, and in this paper I will discuss how, by leveraging innovation in spacecraft subystems, advanced manufacturing, and access to space, we can finally realize this long-term vision of exploration and discovery. The proposed modular approach, utilizing rideshare and propulsive ESPAs, would also enable worldwide participation in the mission, and is applicable to any constellation mission, including Earth Science missions.

Kepko, Emil Larry↗
NASA NTRS2018

Aurorasaurus Database of Real-Time, Crowd-Sourced Aurora Data for Space Weather Research

This technical report documents the details of Aurorasaurus citizen science data for the period spanning 2015 and 2016 as well as its routine data filtering protocols. Aurorasaurus citizen science data is a collection of auroral sightings submitted to the project via its website or apps and mined from social media. It is a robust data set and particularly abundant during strong geomagnetic storms when auroral precipitation models have the highest uncertainty. These data are offered to the scientific community for use through an openaccess database in its raw and scientific formats, each of which is described in detail in this technical report. Furthermore, by demonstrating its scientific utility, we aim to encourage its integration into auroral research.

Citizen science↗
NASA NTRS2019

Quantifying the Contribution of Microbursts to Global Electron Loss in the Radiation Belts

We use the Solar, Anomalous, and Magnetospheric Particle Explorer to explore the relationship between microbursts and global flux decay of electrons from the outer Van Allen belt during the recovery phase of geomagnetic storms. We investigate the correlation between microbursts and global electron loss in each of the quasi‐trapped (drift loss cone), stably trapped, and untrapped electron (bounce loss cone) populations. For the quasi‐trapped electrons, we separately classify the storms as driven by coronal mass ejections or corotating interaction regions and explore their connection to microburst loss. We find that the decay lifetime of electron fluxes, that is, e‐folding times of macroscopic fluxes in the recovery phase is correlated with strong microburst activity. That is, when the microburst activity is high, global flux decay times are short, and vice versa, suggesting a cross‐scale coupling between microloss and macroloss phenomena. Furthermore, we find that the microburst to global loss coupling is predominant in the quasi‐trapped population of radiation belt electrons while having negligible influence on the untrapped and stably trapped populations. We find that microburst activity during storms driven by coronal mass ejections is coupled more strongly with global flux decay as compared with corotating interaction regions. In addition, we find that distance from the plasmapause is likely a better indicator of microburst location than L‐shell, with most microbursts occurring ~0.5–2.0 L from the model plasmapause location.

Greeley, A. D.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Forecasting the Ambient Solar Wind with Numerical Models. I. On the Implementation of an Operational Framework

The ambient solar wind conditions in interplanetary space and in the near-Earth environment are determined by activity on the Sun. Steady solar wind streams modulate the propagation behavior of interplanetary coronal mass ejections and are themselves an important driver of recurrent geomagnetic storm activity. The knowledge of the ambient solar wind flows and fields is thus an essential component of successful space weather forecasting. Here, we present an implementation of an operational framework for operating, validating, and optimizing models of the ambient solar wind flow on the example of Carrington Rotation 2077. We reconstruct the global topology of the coronal magnetic field using the potential field source surface model (PFSS) and the Schatten current sheet model (SCS) and discuss three empirical relationships for specifying the solar wind conditions near the Sun, namely the Wang–Sheeley (WS) model, the distance from the coronal hole boundary model (DCHB), and the Wang-Sheeley–Arge (WSA) model. By adding uncertainty in the latitude about the sub-Earth point, we select an ensemble of initial conditions and map the solutions to Earth by the Heliospheric Upwind eXtrapolation (HUX) model. We assess the forecasting performance from a continuous variable validation and find that the WSA model most accurately predicts the solar wind speed time series (RMSE≈83 km/s). We note that the process of ensemble forecasting slightly improves the forecasting performance of all solar wind models investigated. We conclude that the implemented framework is well suited for studying the relationship between coronal magnetic fields and the properties of the ambient solar wind flow in the near-Earth environment.

Reiss, Martin A.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Image Processing Methods for Coronal Hole Segmentation, Matching, and Map Classification

The paper presents the results from a multi-year effort to develop and validate image processing methods forselecting the best physical models based on solar image observations. The approach consists of selecting the physical models based on their agreement with coronal holes extracted from the images. Ultimately, the goal is to use physical models to predict geomagnetic storms. We decompose the problem into three subproblems: (i) coronal hole segmentation based on physical constraints, (ii) matching clusters of coronal holes between different maps, and (iii) physical map classification. For segmenting coronal holes, we develop a multi-modal method that uses segmentation maps from three different methods to initialize a level-set method that evolves the initial coronal hole segmentation to the magnetic boundary. Then, we introducea new method based on Linear Programming for matchingclusters of coronal holes. The final matching is then performedusing Random Forests. The methods were carefully validatedusing consensus maps derived from multiple readers, manualclustering, manual map classification, and method validation for50 maps. The proposed multi-modal segmentation method significantly outperformed SegNet, U-net, Henney-Harvey, and FCNby providing accurate boundary detection. Overall, the methodgave a 95.5% map classification accuracy.

Jatla, Venkatesh↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Foundations of Modern Magnetic Reconnection Research

Magnetic reconnection is a fundamental process operating in laboratory, space, and astrophysical plasmas. We understand today that it is the mechanism behind the often explosive release of the stored magnetic energy, and that it directly or indirectly powers as diverse a set of phenomena as solar eruptions, stellar flares, geomagnetic storms, the aurora, and even disruption events in fusion machines. It is also the mechanism powering the majority of the deleterious space effects collectively referred to as “space weather.” Owing to its importance, reconnection has been a research focus for many years, culminating in the research based on NASA’s Magnetospheric Multiscale mission. A major component of foundational research involved studies of the stability and disruption of current sheets by collisionless tearing, which still plays a major role in the dynamical evolution of the interfaces between magnetic fields of different directions. This presentation will illuminate these beginnings, with special focus on the seminal work of Academician A. A. Galeev, and also provide a summary of the present state of knowledge. It will conclude with an outlook toward future reconnection research targets.

Plasma↗
NASA NTRS2019

Forbush Decreases and < 2 Day GCR Flux Non-recurrent Variations Studied with LISA Pathfinder

Non-recurrent short-term variations of the galactic cosmic-ray (GCR) flux above 70 MeV n−1 were observed between 2016 February 18 and 2017 July 3 on board the European Space Agency LISA Pathfinder (LPF) mission orbiting around the Lagrange point L1 at 1.5 × 106 km from Earth. The energy dependence of three Forbush decreases is studied and reported here. A comparison of these observations with others carried out in space down to the energy of a few tens of MeV n−1 shows that the same GCR flux parameterization applies to events of different intensity during the main phase. FD observations in L1 with LPF and geomagnetic storm occurrence are also presented. Finally, the characteristics of GCR flux non-recurrent variations (peaks and depressions) of duration <2 days and their association with interplanetary structures are investigated. It is found that, most likely, plasma compression regions between subsequent corotating high-speed streams cause peaks, while heliospheric current sheet crossing causes the majority of the depressions.

M. Armano↗
NASA NTRS2019

Forbush Decreases and <2 Day GCR Flux Non-Recurrent Variations Studied with LISA Pathfinder

Non-recurrent short-term variations of the galactic cosmic-ray (GCR) flux above 70 MeV n(exp −1) were observed between 2016 February 18 and 2017 July 3 on board the European Space Agency LISA Pathfinder (LPF) mission orbiting around the Lagrange point L1 at 1.5 × 10 (exp 6) km from Earth. The energy dependence of three Forbush decreases is studied and reported here. A comparison of these observations with others carried out in space down to the energy of a few tens of MeV n(exp −1) shows that the same GCR flux parameterization applies to events of different intensity during the main phase. FD observations in L1 with LPF and geomagnetic storm occurrence are also presented. Finally, the characteristics of GCR flux non-recurrent variations (peaks and depressions) of duration <2 days and their association with interplanetary structures are investigated. It is found that, most likely, plasma compression regions between subsequent corotating high-speed streams cause peaks, while heliospheric current sheet crossing causes the majority of the depressions.

Cosmic rays↗
NASA NTRS2021

Modeling a Coronal Mass Ejection from an Extended Filament Channel. I. Eruption and Early Evolution

We present observations and modeling of the magnetic field configuration, morphology, and dynamics of a large-scale, high-latitude filament eruption observed by the Solar Dynamics Observatory. We analyze the 2015 July 9–10 filament eruption and the evolution of the resulting coronal mass ejection (CME) through the solar corona. The slow streamer-blowout CME leaves behind an elongated post-eruption arcade above the extended polarity inversion line that is only poorly visible in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) disk observations and does not resemble a typical bright flare-loop system. Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation results from our data-inspired modeling of this eruption compare favorably with the EUV and white-light coronagraph observations. We estimate the reconnection flux from the simulation’s flare-arcade growth and examine the magnetic-field orientation and evolution of the erupting prominence, highlighting the transition from an erupting sheared-arcade filament channel into a streamer-blowout flux-rope CME. Our results represent the first numerical modeling of a global-scale filament eruption where multiple ambiguous and complex observational signatures in EUV and white light can be fully understood and explained with the MHD simulation. In this context, our findings also suggest that the so-called “stealth CME” classification, as a driver of unexpected or “problem” geomagnetic storms, belongs more to a continuum of observable/non-observable signatures than to separate or distinct eruption processes.

Benjamin J Lynch↗
NASA NTRS2022

EMIC-Wave Driven Electron Precipitation Observed by CALET on the International Space Station

We present an analysis of the relativistic electron precipitation (REP) event measured by the CALorimetric Electron Telescope (CALET) experiment on board the International Space Station during a relatively weak geomagnetic storm on 31 December 2016. CALET observations were compared with the measurements of the Van Allen Probes in the near-equatorial plane to investigate the global radiation belt dynamics and the REP drivers. The magnetically conjugate observations from these two missions demonstrate that the significant MeV precipitation directly detected by CALET in low-Earth orbit during a period of radiation belt depletion following the passage of a high-speed stream, was associated with dusk-side electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves. In addition, the combined wave, REP and trapped electron data suggest that the reported radiation belt depletion can be likely ascribed to the concomitant loss effects of EMIC wave scattering driving the atmospheric precipitation, as well as outward radial diffusion associated with magnetopause shadowing.

Radiation belts↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Reversion to the mean of the Solar Wind Input to the Magnetosphere

Earth’s magnetosphere responds to solar wind input over time scales ranging from minutes to days. On minute times scales, researchers seek to identify discontinuities in the solar wind that may trigger transient magnetospheric phenomena such as flux transfer events or substorm onsets. On hour time scales, researchers seek to determine the solar wind phenomena that drive the growth phase of geomagnetic substorms and the storage of magnetic flux within the magnetotail. On longer time scales, researchers seek to determine the solar wind features than propel geomagnetic storms through their initial, main, and recovery phases. Researchers must, perforce, rely upon spacecraft located near the L1 libration point for observations of the solar wind input into the magnetosphere over periods ranging from hours to days. Some of the hazards of doing this are well known. Features seen far upstream at locations away from the Sun-Earth line may never arrive at Earth due to structure in the solar wind transverse to the Sun-Earth line. Alternatively, they may arrive at unexpected times due to errors in calculating their orientation and velocity. Other hazards when predicting the magnetospheric response to varying solar wind conditions are less well understood. When observations of large solar wind drivers at spacecraft far upstream and off the Sun-Earth line are used to select events for study, the ‘reversion to the mean’ effect associated with spatial structure and errors in arrival timing for solar wind features at Earth demands that the magnetosphere will actually be subjected to and respond to solar wind drivers with much lower strengths. Consequently, the magnetospheric response must saturate for the highest solar wind drivers.

David Sibeck↗
NASA NTRS2023

Aurora Detection From Nighttime Lights for Earth and Space Science Applications

This research leverages data from the Day/Night Band (DNB) of the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer (VIIRS) instrument onboard the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) satellite. We demonstrate the value of mining the VIIRS DNB for aurora and describe our use of unsupervised machine learning to create a binary mask for aurora occurrence. This mask can be used to flag aurora-contaminated observations for NASA's nighttime lights products for Earth science applications. The identification of auroral regions can also be used for Space Weather applications, for example, for comparison with aurora forecast model and with other satellite- or ground-based aurora observations. The DNB is a broadband channel that is sensitive to wavelengths from 500 to 900 nm, which covers most of the visible light spectrum, and as the name implies, captures light even at night with a sensitivity at the nanowatt level. This band is suitable for aurora observations since the light emitted by the aurora tends to be dominated by emissions from atomic oxygen, resulting in a greenish glow at a wavelength of 557.7 nm, especially at an altitude of 110 km. This study compares the global nighttime derived aurora regions for 17 and 18 March with the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center's (SWPC) probability product for the St. Patrick's Day geomagnetic storm in 2015. VIIRS sensors are slated to be added to the next generation of polar-orbiting operational satellites. Our novel automated approach to aurora identification opens up an efficient way to leverage this unique data source.

Aurora↗
NASA NTRS2023

Probabilistic Forecasting of Ground Magnetic Perturbation Spikes at Mid-Latitude Stations

The prediction of large fluctuations in the ground magnetic field (dB/dt) is essential for preventing damage from Geomagnetically Induced Currents. Directly forecasting these fluctuations has proven difficult, but accurately determining the risk of extreme events can allow for the worst of the damage to be prevented. Here we trained Convolutional Neural Network models for eight mid-latitude magnetometers to predict the probability that dB/dt will exceed the 99th percentile threshold 30–60 min in the future. Two model frameworks were compared, a model trained using solar wind data from the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite, and another model trained on both ACE and SuperMAG ground magnetometer data. The models were compared to examine if the addition of current ground magnetometer data significantly improved the forecasts of dB/dt in the future prediction window. A bootstrapping method was employed using a random split of the training and validation data to provide a measure of uncertainty in model predictions. The models were evaluated on the ground truth data during eight geomagnetic storms and a suite of evaluation metrics are presented. The models were also compared to a persistence model to ensure that the model using both datasets did not over-rely on dB/dt values in making its predictions. Overall, we find that the models using both the solar wind and ground magnetometer data had better metric scores than the solar wind only and persistence models, and was able to capture more spatially localized variations in the dB/dt threshold crossings.

Michael Coughlan↗
NASA NTRS2023

What Do Halo Cmes Tell Us About Solar Cycle 25?

It is known that the weak state of the heliosphere due to diminished solar activity in cycle 24 backreacted on coronal mass ejections (CMEs) to make them appear wider for a given speed. One of the consequences of the weak state of the heliosphere is that more CMEs appear as halo CMEs (HCMEs), and halos are formed at shorter heliocentric distances. Current predictions for the strength of solar cycle (SC) 25 range from half to twice the strength of SC 24. We compare the HCME occurrence rate and other properties during the rise phase of cycles 23, 24, and 25 to weigh in on the strength of SC 25. We find that HCME and solar wind properties in SC 25 are intermediate between SCs 23 and 24, but closer to SC 24. The HCME occurrence rate, normalized to the sunspot number, is higher in SCs 24 and 25 than in SC 23. The solar wind total pressure in SC 25 is ∼35% smaller than that in SC 23. Furthermore, the occurrence rates of high-energy solar energetic particle events and intense geomagnetic storms are well below the corresponding values in SC 23, but similar to those in SC 24. We conclude that cycle 25 is likely to be similar to or slightly stronger than cycle 24, in agreement with polar-field precursor methods for cycle 25 prediction.

Solar coronal mass ejections↗