2023 Billion-Ton Report: An Assessment of U.S. Renewable Carbon Resources
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09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
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Quality Guidelines for Energy System Studies: Fuel Prices for Selected Feedstocks in NETL Studies
The purpose of this document is to develop feedstock price values to be used in the United States (U.S.) Department of Energy’s (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) energy systems studies. This version of the QGESS incorporates electricity and biomass fuel costs; it updates the coal costs; and it updates and expands the natural gas costs.
01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
Assessment of BQ-9000 Biodiesel Properties for 2024
This is the eighth in a series of reports documenting the quality of biodiesel from U.S.- and Canadian-based producers that participate in the BQ-9000 program, the biodiesel industry's voluntary quality assurance program. Participants provided monthly data on critical quality parameters for calendar year 2024 with quality data provided to a team of experts, who removed any identifying company information and provided anonymized data to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) for statistical analysis. Similar to 2023, data on kinematic viscosity, sulfated ash, distillation temperature, carbon residue, and cetane were collected, as well as individual levels of sodium, potassium, calcium, and magnesium.
09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
Integrated Life Cycle and Techno-Economic Assessments of Central Appalachian Legacy Mine Sites for Biomass Development and Waste Coal Utilization
This project, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy – National Energy Technology Laboratory (DOE-NETL) under award DE-FE0032212, evaluated how legacy coal mine lands and coal refuse piles in Central Appalachia (West Virginia and Pennsylvania) can be reclaimed and repurposed to support biomass development and beneficial utilization of waste coal, with the long-term goal of supporting net-zero or net-negative greenhouse gas (GHG) pathways. The project had two primary objectives: 1. Characterize legacy mine sites (including site conditions, waste coal/refuse resources, and soil/ecosystem indicators) and develop reclamation and best management practices (BMPs) for biomass cultivation; and 2. Conduct integrated machine learning (ML)-assisted life cycle assessment (LCA) and techno-economic analysis (TEA) to quantify environmental and economic outcomes for multiple biomass and waste-coal utilization pathways. Across West Virginia, the team identified ~625 coal refuse sites covering ~19,705 acres, and developed methods to estimate refuse pile volume using digital elevation models (DEMs) and geospatial workflows. A large subset of sites received volume estimates totaling ~1.6 billion m³.
01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
Biochemical Conversion of Herbaceous Biomass to Renewable Diesel: Biorefinery Marginal Air Quality Impacts and Comparison to Feedstock Production
This study assesses the air quality impacts of an advanced biorefinery that produces renewable diesel blendstock (RDB) from lignocellulosic biomass via aerobic respiration (Davis et al. 2022) by estimating fine particulate matter (PM2.5) impacts from biorefinery emissions. It continues a prior analysis that used a geospatial assessment to identify source regions for biomass feedstocks and studied the impact of feedstock production emissions on air quality (Thind et al. 2022). Thind et al. (2022) identified RDB biorefineries that can use corn stover feedstocks of 2,000; 5,200; and 9,100 dry metric tons per day (DMT/day), based in Iowa, and suggested 7 unique counties can serve as hosts for a biorefinery that draws biomass feedstock from neighboring counties. Given 13 unique county-biorefinery size combinations and two waste lignin end uses at the biorefinery (lignin as a fuel for electricity generation and lignin for pellet production), the air-quality-related sustainability aspects of each of these 26 scenarios are assessed by estimating the annual average impacts of biorefinery emissions on the dispersion and formation of secondary PM2.5 in the atmosphere using a novel reduced-complexity air quality model called the Intervention Model for Air Pollution (InMAP). The 26 biorefinery design combinations help capture how a biorefinery's emissions of air pollutants and their resulting impact on local and regional air quality are influenced by the magnitude of production scale, lignin utilization strategy, and location of a proposed biorefinery. Methods developed in Thind et al. (2022) are applied to estimate the constraints on primary PM2.5 and secondary PM2.5 precursor emissions based on compliance with U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) annual primary National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) of PM2.5 (i.e.12.0 micrograms per cubic meter (microgram/m3)) at downwind receptors of a biorefinery. Incremental PM2.5 concentrations caused by the emission of biorefining corn stover into RDB are assessed and compared to those of corn stover production. To illuminate which upstream supply chain stage of renewable diesel production contributes most to air quality impacts, marginal PM2.5 concentrations are compared between both stages at multiple downwind air quality monitor locations. In addition, through a hotspot analysis, we identify the primary contributing factors of emissions within the feedstock production and biorefinery stage operations. In doing so, we provide insights for improving the air pollutant emission-related sustainability of advanced lignocellulosic biofuel production.
09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
Bioenergy and Climate Change in Ukraine: How climate can impact the sustainability of bioenergy production
The Russian invasion has exacerbated Ukraine’s energy security issues, prompting a shift toward diversifying energy supply sources. Additionally, strategic documents aim to align Ukraine’s energy system with EU climate requirements, focusing on reducing reliance on fossil fuels and advancing decarbonization efforts. This report focuses on the expansion of bioenergy as an alternative source of energy in Ukraine. Current assessments suggest that Ukraine has substantial bioenergy potential, primarily from agricultural residues and energy crops. However, the challenges posed by climate change and the ongoing war might impact the outcome of these projections. This report highlights the importance of integrating climate factors into energy modeling using tools like the integrated assessment models to provide a comprehensive understanding of Ukraine’s bioenergy potential under various climate scenarios. It also emphasizes the need for climate-smart agriculture and forestry practices to mitigate risks, enhance energy efficiency, and support resilient crop supplies. Recommendations for stakeholders include diversification of the energy supply sources, developing adaptation strategies, diversifying bioenergy feedstocks, and ensuring robust decision-making to navigate the impacts of climate change on Ukraine’s energy system.
09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
Economic impact and risk analysis of integrating sustainable aviation fuels into refineries
The growth of the aviation industry coupled with its dependence on energy dense, liquid fuels has brought sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) research to the forefront of the biofuels community. Petroleum refineries will need to decide how to satisfy the projected increase in jet fuel demand with either capital investments to debottleneck current operations or by integrating bio-blendstocks. This work seeks to compare jet production strategies on a risk-adjusted, economic performance basis using Monte-Carlo simulation and refinery optimization models. Additionally, incentive structures aiming to de-risk initial SAF production from the refiner’s perspective are explored. Results show that market sensitive incentives can reduce the financial risks associated with producing SAFs and deliver marginal abatement costs ranging between 136-182 $/Ton-CO2e.
09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
Biohydrogen: prospects for industrial utilization and energy resiliency in rural communities
Biohydrogen (bioH 2 ) production in rural regions of the United States leveraged from existing biomass waste streams serves two extant needs: rural energy resiliency and decarbonization of heavy industry, including the production of ammonia and other H 2 -dependent nitrogenous products. We consider bioH 2 production using two different strategies: (1) dark fermentation (DF) and (2) anaerobic digestion followed by steam methane reforming of the biogas (AD-SMR). Production of bioH 2 from biomass waste streams is a potentially ‘greener’ pathway in comparison to natural gas-steam methane reforming (NG-SMR), especially as fugitive emissions from these wastes are avoided. It also provides a decarbonizing potential not found in water-splitting technologies. Based on literature on DF and AD of crop residues, woody biomass residues from forestry wastes, and wastewaters containing fats, oils, and grease (FOG), we outline scenarios for bioH 2 production and displacement of fossil fuel derived methane. Finally, we compare the costs and carbon intensity (CI) of bioH 2 production with those of other H 2 production pathways.
08 HYDROGEN↗
Simulating the Trajectory and Biomass Growth of Free-Floating Macroalgal Cultivation Platforms along the U.S. West Coast
Trajectory tracking and macroalgal growth models were coupled to support a novel macroalgae-harvesting concept known as the Nautical Off-shore Macroalgal Autonomous Device (NOMAD). The NOMAD consists of 5 km long carbon-fiber longlines that are seeded and free float southward along the U.S. West Coast for approximately 3 months before harvesting off the California coast, taking advantage of favorable environmental conditions. The trajectory and macroalgal growth models were applied to answer planning questions pertinent to the techno-economic analysis such as identifying the preferred release location, approximate pathway, timing until harvest, and estimated growth. Trajectories were determined with the General NOAA Operational Modeling Environment (GNOME) model, using 11 years of current and wind data, determining probabilities by running nearly 40,000 Monte Carlo simulations varying the start time and location. An accompanying macroalgal growth model was used to estimate the growth of macroalgae based on the trajectory tracks and environmental forcing products, including light, temperature and nutrients. Model results show that NOMAD lines transit south in the months of April to September due to seasonal currents, taking approximately 3 months to reach Southern California. During transit, NOMAD lines are dispersed but typically avoid beaching or passing through marine sanctuaries. NOMAD lines can yield up to 30 kg wet weight per meter of cultivation line.
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Preparation and Characterization of Materials for Low- to Intermediate-Temperature CO2 Adsorption
Global carbon dioxide emissions are rising and the use of fossil fuels in several sectors are the leading causes. As global population and economies continue to grow significantly, the most practical method of lowering such emissions is to capture CO2. Although other technologies are more developed, adsorption is very promising and has attracted much attention. To ensure this technology’s success, it is essential to have suitable CO2 adsorbent materials. In this work, several new hydrotalcites (HTs) with different initial concentrations of ion precursors were prepared for the first time by the co-precipitation method—it was possible to verify that the ion concentrations influence the characteristics of the materials. The prepared HTs were characterized by thermogravimetric analysis (TG), X-Ray diffraction (XRD), surface area measurements and temperature-programmed desorption of CO2 (TPD-CO2) to relate their CO2 capture capacity to their physicochemical properties; the CO2 adsorption equilibrium isotherms were determined at 35 and 300 °C for the prepared samples, as well as for some commercial materials: magnesium oxide, calcium oxide, aluminium oxide and Zeolite 13X. After determining which materials present the best CO2 adsorption capacity, these were submitted to adsorption-desorption cycles to study their stability. The main objective of the work was to prepare and study different CO2 adsorbents for processes that are carried out at low and intermediate temperatures. From the experimental results, it was possible to conclude that the Zeolite 13X showed the best capacity at 35 °C, 3.38 mmol·g−1 (@ pCO2 = 1 bar), and a prepared calcined HT (c-HT2) was the best at 300 °C, 0.97 mmol·g−1 (@ pCO2 = 1 bar). Moreover, it seems there is an optimum initial concentration of the ions’ solutions for the tested HTs, which depends on the final application—c-HT1 showed a better capacity at 35 °C and c-HT2 at 300 °C. From the adsorption-desorption cycles—performed at 35 and 300 °C with the best materials using a magnetic suspension microbalance at 1 bar of CO2 partial pressure —, a working cyclic capacity of 2.69 mmol∙g−1 was achieved by the Zeolite at 35 °C; in turn, c-HT2 showed a working cyclic capacity of 0.79 mmol∙g−1 at 300 °C.
Figueiredo, Anabela↗
Igiugig's Journey Towards Sustainability
This case study summarizes work completed over the last year helping the community of Igiugig develop a comprehensive energy plan.
Alaska↗
Securing the Nation's Energy Future
Energy security is national security. Energy keeps us connected, powers and fuels our homes and businesses, enables our national defense, and keeps our economy strong. With increasingly complex and fast-evolving threats to the energy sector, securing the nation's long-term access to affordable, reliable, and abundant energy is vital for our American way of life.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Identifying Nuclear Cost Targets for Competitive Maritime Decarbonization
The shipping industry contributes to a substantial quantity of global carbon emissions. Reaching a “Net-Zero World” will ultimately require complete decarbonization of the existing fleet. Nuclear energy may provide a viable solution toward this end goal. To better understand the economic dynamics of relying on nuclear energy to power maritime fleets, cost targets were identified in this study. Two use cases were considered: (1) nuclear energy is used to generate synthetic fuel (termed synfuel) to power maritime propulsion, and (2) nuclear reactors for vessel propulsion. The study found that in both cases realistic cost targets for nuclear reactor costs could be reached. However, option 2 was deemed to be much more competitive overall but with higher technical risks.
29 - ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ECONOMY↗
Electrons to Molecules: Electricity-Driven Processes for Future Generation of Renewable Hydrogen, Net-Zero Fuels, Chemicals, and Materials
Interconverting electrical and chemical energy efficiently and cost-effectively provides a massive opportunity to generate renewable hydrogen, create net-zero fuels and chemicals, capture and convert carbon dioxide (CO2), and create innovative sustainable industrial processes.
affordable electricity↗
Small Reactors in Microgrids: Technoeconomic Analysis
This report presents the results of technoeconomic analysis that advances understanding of the potential of small modular reactors and microreactors, collectively referred to as small reactors (SRs) in this report, in microgrids. This analysis was conducted using a proxy model for SR in microgrids based on the datapoints that were identified and explored in a predecessor report “Small Reactors in Microgrids: Technical Studies Guidance.” The results and the subsequent comparative analysis in this report show that SRs could be a cost-competitive generation option when capital costs are modeled considering potential economies of scale in sizing. If the CO 2 tax is imposed on carbon fuels, SRs would be even more attractive than gas generators. Then, SRs in microgrids would play a pivotal role in reducing the carbon footprint at the local distribution level. However, it is particularly important to identify the most suitable use cases for early adoption and the right balance of generation mix with other clean technologies as SRs achieve a level of technological and financial maturity.
21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
Life-Cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-Source Numerical Models (LiAISON) for Analyzing Emerging Low-Carbon Technologies
Decarbonizing the industrial sector is a significant challenge in achieving a net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions economy by 2050 and the Paris Agreement, i.e., a global climate change mitigation target of achieving a maximum average temperature change potential of 1.5 degrees C or less by 2100 with respect to pre-industrial levels. In the United States (US), the industrial sector accounts for 23% of total GHG emissions and is home to a number of hard-to-electrify activities. The chemicals subsector has the single largest subsector emissions profile after direct emissions from fossil fuel combustion and leakage from fossil fuel distribution systems. Within the chemicals subsector, many processes depend on hydrogen or ammonia precursors. Decarbonizing these two commodities would contribute significantly to decarbonizing the industrial sector as hydrogen could also be used for low carbon steel production (e.g., hydrogen-based direct reduction of iron) and other industrial applications. Emerging technologies require the application of prospective life cycle assessment (LCA), which can account for technology (foreground) scaling and process improvements via learning-by-doing, among others. In many cases, the future system context (background) in which the technologies are assumed to operate in is equally relevant. Background scenarios generated by integrated assessment models (IAM) can coherently incorporate potential future dynamics of the energy-climate-human-land system. Further, IAM scenarios are harmonized across socioeconomic and climate change mitigation pathways, which facilitates the comparability of prospective LCAs using different IAMs. We introduce an open source prospective LCA framework, the Life-cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-source Numerical models (LiAISON), to analyze the non-linear relationships between technology foreground and the future energy system background across a series of midpoint and resource use metrics The integration of LCA and IAM data is achieved using prospective environmental Impact assessment (PREMISE). We showcase it by assessing two Power-to-Hydrogen (PtH2) processes, namely Solid Oxide Electrolysis (SOE) and Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Electrolysis (PEME). We compare the technologies to a baseline of hydrogen production via natural gas-based Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) in a US context of multiple energy system and climate change mitigation futures. Besides providing an analysis that specifies the LCA results ranges with temporal and geospatial explicitness across the two technologies, metrics, and impact assessment methods, this research also aims to establish a base framework that can be expanded to use other IAM generated scenarios and US open-source life cycle inventory (LCI) databases. We find that the temporal environmental performance of either technology or their difference to SMR is directly influenced by the underlying background dynamics. Under baseline projections (i.e., no decarbonization goals), neither process reaches parity with the incumbent technology across several environmental metrics. Under the decarbonization scenarios, the underlying sectoral shifts result in declining impacts over time, compared to 2020 levels, except for metal depletion levels, which increase. The background shifts postulate a heavily decarbonized economy and energy system, which help technologies reach parity with SMR between 2040-2050 (RCP2.6) and 2030-2040 (RCP1.9) for global warming. Despite declines across several other metrics over time, neither PtH2 technology break even with SMR by 2100 besides for global warming.
decarbonizing↗
A deep decarbonization framework for the United States economy – a sector, sub-sector, and end-use based approach
Achieving the United States' target of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 will require technological transformations and energy sector mitigation. To understand the role of dynamically evolving technologies, identify synergies and dissonance and the effect of allocating limited low-carbon biomass resources in decarbonizing the U.S. economy, we developed the Decarbonization Scenario Analysis Model. A Life Cycle Assessment based approach is implemented considering the U.S. economy as the functional unit, to estimate greenhouse gas mitigation potential for projected energy demand based on several sector-level and cross-sectoral decarbonization pathways. Direct and supply-chain emissions are accounted, resulting from changes in patterns of energy generation and consumption, technology breakthroughs, and reductions in fugitive emissions over time at the granularity of economic sectors, sub-sectors, and end-use. Decarbonization strategies are implemented over a reference case developed using Energy Information Administration (EIA AEO) projection of economic activities for 2020–2050. Based on the considered scenarios, 80–90% economy-wide decarbonization relative to the 2020 reference case is projected. Electrification, low-carbon fuels, and reduction of fugitive emissions play the most significant role to decarbonization. The majority of the remaining emissions are accounted to the supply-chain and end-use emissions from natural gas and diesel fossil-based fuels in heavy duty transportation and heavy industries, highlighting the need for developing low-carbon and carbon-negative alternatives to mitigate those fossil-based carbon emissions.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Synergistic Thermo-Microbial-Electrochemical (T-MEC) Approach for Drop-In Fuel Production from Wet Waste
This project successfully developed and demonstrated the synergistic thermo-microbial-electrochemical (T-MEC) process, converting food waste into sustainable biofuels while achieving self-sustaining wastewater treatment and hydrogen production. By integrating hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) and microbial electrolysis cells (MECs), the project advanced waste-to-fuel technology and expanded the understanding of sustainable waste valorization. It established a scalable framework for achieving high carbon efficiency, effective pollutant removal, and energy recovery, showcasing the potential of combining biological, thermal, and electrochemical systems to optimize resource recovery and reduce environmental impacts. The project demonstrated the technical effectiveness of the T-MEC process, achieving over 50% improvement in carbon efficiency and reducing waste processing costs by more than 25% compared to anaerobic digestion (AD). The HTL pilot reactor processed food waste at 90 kg/h, producing up to 200 L/day of biocrude oil with high conversion efficiency. A critical desalting step in pretreatment prevented catalyst fouling, enabling efficient hydrotreating with 100% deoxygenation and denitrogenation and sulfur reduction to <15 ppm. This positioned the kerosene fraction as a strong candidate for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). The MECs achieved rapid startup, 86.4% COD removal, and hydrogen production rates of 1.8 L H 2 /L cat /day, among the highest recorded for pilot-scale systems. The integrated process achieved 65% carbon efficiency to biocrude and 58% to finished fuels, outperforming AD's 41% and 33% efficiencies for biogas and natural gas vehicle fuels. System analysis highlighted economic potential, with minimum fuel selling prices (MFSP) decreasing from $\$$25/GGE at 5 tpd to $\$$10/GGE at 500 tpd due to economies of scale. Future work will focus on reducing MEC material and membrane costs, enhancing performance through higher current densities, and creating tailored operational strategies for diverse feedstocks. Optimization of the integrated system will improve scalability and feasibility, positioning the T-MEC process as a competitive solution for converting wet waste into sustainable fuels and clean water. Beyond its technical and economic achievements, the project offers significant public benefits. The T-MEC process provides a sustainable alternative to landfilling and incineration, reducing greenhouse gas emissions and conserving resources. Converting waste into SAF and renewable fuels supports decarbonization in the transportation sector, advancing energy independence and reducing reliance on fossil fuels. Additionally, the process minimizes environmental pollutants, transforming them into valuable products like hydrogen and fuels, contributing to a cleaner and more sustainable future.
09 BIOMASS FUELS↗