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DOE OSTI2021

Abiotic and Biotic Damage of Microalgae Generate Different Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) for Early Diagnosis of Algal Cultures for Biofuel Production

Open microalgal ponds used in industrial biomass production are susceptible to a number of biotic and abiotic environmental stressors (e.g., grazers, pathogens, pH, temperature, etc.) resulting in pond crashes with high economic costs. Identification of signature chemicals to aid in rapid, non-invasive, and accurate identification of the stressors would facilitate targeted and effective treatment to save the algal crop from a catastrophic crash. Specifically, we were interested in identifying volatile organic compounds (VOCs) that can be used to as an early diagnostic for algal crop damage. Cultures of Microchloropsis gaditana were subjected to two forms of algal crop damage: (1) active grazing by the marine rotifer, Brachionus plicatilis, or (2) repeated freeze–thaw cycles. VOCs emitted above the headspace of these algal cultures were collected using fieldable solid phase microextraction (SPME) fibers. An untargeted analysis and identification of VOCs was conducted using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS). Diagnostic VOCs unique to each algal crop damage mechanism were identified. Active rotifer grazing of M. gaditana was characterized by the appearance of carotenoid degradation products, including β-cyclocitral and various alkenes. Freeze–thaw algae produced a different set of VOCs, including palmitoleic acid. Both rotifer grazing and freeze–thawed algae produced β-ionone as a VOC, possibly suggesting a common stress-induced cellular mechanism. Importantly, these identified VOCs were all absent from healthy algal cultures of M. gaditana. Early detection of biotic or abiotic environmental stressors will facilitate early diagnosis and application of targeted treatments to prevent algal pond crashes. Thus, our work further supports the use of VOCs for monitoring the health of algal ponds to ultimately enhance algal crop yields for production of biofuel.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Storage and Algal Association of Bacteria That Protect Microchloropsis salina from Grazing by Brachionus plicatilis

Loss of algal production from the crashes of algal mass cultivation systems represents a significant barrier to the economic production of microalgal-based biofuels. Current strategies for crash prevention can be too costly to apply broadly as prophylaxis. Bacteria are ubiquitous in microalgal mass production cultures, however few studies investigate their role and possible significance in this particular environment. Previously, we demonstrated the success of selected protective bacterial communities to save Microchloropsis salina cultures from grazing by the rotifer Brachionus plicatilis. In the current study, these protective bacterial communities were further characterized by fractionation into rotifer-associated, algal-associated, and free-floating bacterial fractions. Small subunit ribosomal RNA amplicon sequencing was used to identify the bacterial genera present in each of the fractions. Here, we show that Marinobacter, Ruegeria, and Boseongicola in algae and rotifer fractions from rotifer-infected cultures likely play key roles in protecting algae from rotifers. Several other identified taxa likely play lesser roles in protective capability. The identification of bacterial community members demonstrating protective qualities will allow for the rational design of microbial communities grown in stable co-cultures with algal production strains in mass cultivation systems. Such a system would reduce the frequency of culture crashes and represent an essentially zero-cost form of algal crop protection.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Flexibility in the Energy Balancing Network of Photosynthesis Enables Safe Operation under Changing Environmental Conditions

Given their ability to harness chemical energy from the sun and generate the organic compounds necessary for life, photosynthetic organisms have the unique capacity to act simultaneously as their own power and manufacturing plant. This dual capacity presents many unique challenges, chiefly that energy supply must be perfectly balanced with energy demand to prevent photodamage and allow for optimal growth. From this perspective, we discuss the energy balancing network using recent studies and a quantitative framework for calculating metabolic ATP and NAD(P)H demand using measured leaf gas exchange and assumptions of metabolic demand. We focus on exploring how the energy balancing network itself is structured to allow safe and flexible energy supply. We discuss when the energy balancing network appears to operate optimally and when it favors high capacity instead. We also present the hypothesis that the energy balancing network itself can adapt over longer time scales to a given metabolic demand and how metabolism itself may participate in this energy balancing.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Interpreting High-resolution Spectroscopy of Exoplanets using Cross-correlations and Supervised Machine Learning

We present a new method for performing atmospheric retrieval on ground-based, high-resolution data of exoplanets. Our method combines cross-correlation functions with a random forest, a supervised machine-learning technique, to overcome challenges associated with high-resolution data. A series of cross-correlation functions are concatenated to give a “CCF-sequence” for each model atmosphere, which reduces the dimensionality by a factor of ∼100. The random forest, trained on our grid of ∼65,000 models, provides a likelihood-free method of retrieval. The precomputed grid spans 31 values of both temperature and metallicity, and incorporates a realistic noise model. We apply our method to HARPS-N observations of the ultra-hot Jupiter KELT-9b and obtain a metallicity consistent with solar (logM = − 0.2 ± 0.2). Our retrieved transit chord temperature (T=6000{sub −200}{sup +0}K) is unreliable as strong ion lines lie outside of the extent of the training set, which we interpret as being indicative of missing physics in our atmospheric model. We compare our method to traditional nested sampling, as well as other machine-learning techniques, such as Bayesian neural networks. We demonstrate that the likelihood-free aspect of the random forest makes it more robust than nested sampling to different error distributions, and that the Bayesian neural network we tested is unable to reproduce complex posteriors. We also address the claim in Cobb et al. 2019 that our random forest retrieval technique can be overconfident but incorrect. We show that this is an artifact of the training set, rather than of the machine-learning method, and that the posteriors agree with those obtained using nested sampling.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Information Content of JWST NIRSpec Transmission Spectra of Warm Neptunes

Warm Neptunes offer a rich opportunity for understanding exo-atmospheric chemistry. With the upcoming James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), there is a need to elucidate the balance between investments in telescope time versus scientific yield. We use the supervised machine-learning method of the random forest to perform an information content (IC) analysis on a 11-parameter model of transmission spectra from the various NIRSpec modes. The three bluest medium-resolution NIRSpec modes (0.7–1.27 μm, 0.97–1.84 μm, 1.66–3.07 μm) are insensitive to the presence of CO. The reddest medium-resolution mode (2.87–5.10 μm) is sensitive to all of the molecules assumed in our model: CO, CO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4}, C{sub 2}H{sub 2}, H{sub 2}O, HCN, and NH{sub 3}. It competes effectively with the three bluest modes on the information encoded on cloud abundance and particle size. It is also competitive with the low-resolution prism mode (0.6–5.3 μm) on the inference of every parameter except for the temperature and ammonia abundance. We recommend astronomers to use the reddest medium-resolution NIRSpec mode for studying the atmospheric chemistry of 800–1200 K warm Neptunes; its corresponding high-resolution counterpart offers diminishing returns. We compare our findings to previous JWST IC analyses that favor the blue orders and suggest that the reliance on chemical equilibrium could lead to biased outcomes if this assumption does not apply. A simple, pressure-independent diagnostic for identifying chemical disequilibrium is proposed based on measuring the abundances of H{sub 2}O, CO, and CO{sub 2}.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory Data Preview 1

We present Rubin Data Preview 1 (DP1), the first data from the National Science Foundation–Department of Energy Vera C. Rubin Observatory, comprising raw and calibrated single-epoch images, coadds, difference images, detection catalogs, and ancillary data products. DP1 is based on 1792 optical–near-infrared exposures acquired over 48 distinct nights by the Rubin Commissioning Camera (LSSTComCam) on the Simonyi Survey Telescope at the Summit Facility on Cerro Pachón, Chile in late 2024. DP1 covers ∼15 deg 2 distributed across seven roughly equal-sized noncontiguous fields, each independently observed in six broad photometric bands, ugrizy. The median FWHM of the point-spread function across all bands is approximately 1"14, with the sharpest images reaching about 0." 58. The 5σ point-source depths for coadded images in the deepest field, the Extended Chandra Deep Field South, are u = 24.55, g = 26.18, r = 25.96, i = 25.71, z = 25.07, and y = 23.1. Other fields are no more than 2.2 mag shallower in any band, where they have nonzero coverage. DP1 contains approximately 2.3 million distinct astrophysical objects, of which 1.6 million are extended in at least one band in coadds, and 431 solar system objects, of which 93 are new discoveries. DP1 is approximately 3.5 TB in size and is available to Vera C. Rubin Observatory data rights holders via the Rubin Science Platform, a cloud-based environment for the analysis of petascale astronomical data. While small compared to future LSST releases, its high quality and diversity of data support a broad range of early science investigations ahead of full operations in 2026.

Ground-based astronomy↗

DOE OSTI2021

Measuring an Off-center Detonation through Infrared Line Profiles: The Peculiar Type Ia Supernova SN 2020qxp/ASASSN-20jq

In this study, we present and analyze a near-infrared (NIR) spectrum of the underluminous Type Ia supernova SN 2020qxp/ASASSN-20jq obtained with NIRES at the Keck Observatory, 191 days after B-band maximum. The spectrum is dominated by a number of broad emission features, including the [Fe ιι] at 1.644 μm, which is highly asymmetric with a tilted top and a peak redshifted by ≈2000 km s -1 . In comparison with 2D non-LTE synthetic spectra computed from 3D simulations of off-center delayed-detonation Chandrasekhar-mass (M ch ) white dwarf (WD) models, we find good agreement between the observed lines and the synthetic profiles, and are able to unravel the structure of the progenitor’s envelope. We find that the size and tilt of the [Fe ιι] 1.644 μm profile (in velocity space) is an effective way to determine the location of an off-center delayed-detonation transition (DDT) and the viewing angle, and it requires a WD with a high central density of ~4 × 10 9 g cm -3 . We also tentatively identify a stable Ni feature around 1.9 μm characterized by a “pot-belly” profile that is slightly offset with respect to the kinematic center. In the case of SN 2020qxp/ASASSN-20jq, we estimate that the location of the DDT is ~0.3M WD off center, which gives rise to an asymmetric distribution of the underlying ejecta. We also demonstrate that low-luminosity and high-density WD SN Ia progenitors exhibit a very strong overlap of Ca and 56 Ni in physical space. This results in the formation of a prevalent [Ca ιι] 0.73 μm emission feature that is sensitive to asymmetry effects. Our findings are discussed within the context of alternative scenarios, including off-center C/O detonations in He-triggered sub-M Ch WDs and the direct collision of two WDs. Snapshot programs with Gemini/Keck/Very Large Telescope (VLT)/ELT-class instruments and our spectropolarimetry program are complementary to mid-IR spectra by the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

The Aemulus Project. V. Cosmological Constraint from Small-scale Clustering of BOSS Galaxies

We analyze clustering measurements of BOSS galaxies using a simulation-based emulator of two-point statistics. We focus on the monopole and quadrupole of the redshift-space correlation function, and the projected correlation function, at scales of 0.1 ~ 60 h -1 Mpc. Although our simulations are based on wCDM with general relativity (GR), we include a scaling parameter of the halo velocity field, γ f , defined as the amplitude of the halo velocity field relative to the GR prediction. We divide the BOSS data into three redshift bins. After marginalizing over other cosmological parameters, galaxy bias parameters, and the velocity scaling parameter, we find fσ 8 (z = 0.25) = 0.413 ± 0.031, fσ 8 (z = 0.4) = 0.470 ± 0.026, and fσ 8 (z = 0.55) = 0.396 ± 0.022. Compared with Planck observations using a flat Lambda cold dark matter model, our results are lower by 1.9σ, 0.3σ, and 3.4σ, respectively. These results are consistent with other recent simulation-based results at nonlinear scales, including weak lensing measurements of BOSS LOWZ galaxies, two-point clustering of eBOSS LRGs, and an independent clustering analysis of BOSS LOWZ. All these results are generally consistent with a combination of ${\gamma }_{f}^{1/2}{\sigma }_{8}\approx 0.75$. We note, however, that the BOSS data is well fit assuming GR, i.e., γf = 1. We cannot rule out an unknown systematic error in the galaxy bias model at nonlinear scales, but near-future data and modeling will enhance our understanding of the galaxy–halo connection, and provide a strong test of new physics beyond the standard model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Aemulus Project. VI. Emulation of Beyond-standard Galaxy Clustering Statistics to Improve Cosmological Constraints

Abstract There is untapped cosmological information in galaxy redshift surveys in the nonlinear regime. In this work, we use the Aemulus suite of cosmological N -body simulations to construct Gaussian process emulators of galaxy clustering statistics at small scales (0.1–50 h −1 Mpc) in order to constrain cosmological and galaxy bias parameters. In addition to standard statistics—the projected correlation function w p ( r p ), the redshift-space monopole of the correlation function ξ 0 ( s ), and the quadrupole ξ 2 ( s )—we emulate statistics that include information about the local environment, namely the underdensity probability function P U ( s ) and the density-marked correlation function M ( s ). This extends the model of Aemulus III for redshift-space distortions by including new statistics sensitive to galaxy assembly bias. In recovery tests, we find that the beyond-standard statistics significantly increase the constraining power on cosmological parameters of interest: including P U ( s ) and M ( s ) improves the precision of our constraints on Ω m by 27%, σ 8 by 19%, and the growth of structure parameter, f σ 8 , by 12% compared to standard statistics. We additionally find that scales below ∼6 h −1 Mpc contain as much information as larger scales. The density-sensitive statistics also contribute to constraining halo occupation distribution parameters and a flexible environment-dependent assembly bias model, which is important for extracting the small-scale cosmological information as well as understanding the galaxy–halo connection. This analysis demonstrates the potential of emulating beyond-standard clustering statistics at small scales to constrain the growth of structure as a test of cosmic acceleration.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Unified Photometric Redshift Calibration for Weak Lensing Surveys Using the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument

The effective redshift distribution n(z) of galaxies is a critical component in the study of weak gravitational lensing. Here, we introduce a new method for determining n(z) for weak lensing surveys based on high-quality redshifts and neural-network-based importance weights. Additionally, we present the first unified photometric redshift calibration of the three leading stage-III weak lensing surveys, the Dark Energy Survey (DES), the Hyper Suprime-Cam (HSC) survey, and the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS), with state-of-the-art spectroscopic data from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). We verify our method using a new, data-driven approach and obtain n(z) constraints with statistical uncertainties of the order of $σ_z$ ~ 0.01 and smaller. Our analysis is largely independent of previous photometric redshift calibrations and, thus, provides an important cross-check in light of recent cosmological tensions. Overall, we find excellent agreement with previously published results on the DES Y3 and HSC Y1 data sets, while there are some differences on the mean redshift with respect to the previously published KiDS-1000 results. We attribute the latter to mismatches in photometric noise properties in the COSMOS field compared to the wider KiDS self-organizing map-gold catalog. At the same time, the new n(z) estimates for KiDS do not significantly change estimates of cosmic structure growth from cosmic shear. Finally, we discuss how our method can be applied to future weak lensing calibrations with DESI data.

Lange, J. U. [American Univ., Washington, DC (Unit↗

DOE OSTI2026

Joint Analysis of Small-scale Galaxy Clustering and Galaxy–Galaxy Lensing from BOSS Galaxies

We present a joint analysis of galaxy clustering and galaxy–galaxy lensing measurements from BOSS galaxies using a simulation-based emulation method combined with a halo occupation distribution model. Our emulators are constructed with the Aemulus ν simulations, a suite of wνCDM N-body simulations with massive neutrinos as independent particle species. We combine small-scale analysis of clustering from 0.1 to 60.2 h −1 Mpc and lensing from 1.7 to 60.2 h −1 Mpc to perform cosmological constraints. We split the BOSS galaxies into three redshift bins to measure their clustering and employ galaxies from Dark Energy Camera Legacy Survey and Hyper Suprime-Cam as source galaxies to measure lensing separately. We find that the addition of lensing significantly improves the constraining power on $S_8 = σ_8(Ω_m/0.3)^{0.5}$, with a weak improvement for fσ 8 . Our results of fσ 8 indicate tensions of around 1σ−4σ below the results of the cosmic microwave background observations of Planck. For S 8 , our results are also lower than Planck, and the tension can be mitigated when considering possible systematics in lensing measurement. As a by-product, our analysis prefers a nonzero neutrino mass but without strong significance, with the constraining power dominated by the clustering. Given the accuracy and precision of our model and the observational data, it is anticipated that larger and higher-quality spectroscopic data sets will improve the constraints on this fundamental property in the near future.

Gao, Wenhao [Shanghai Jiao Tong University (China)↗

DOE OSTI2026

JWST Observations of Starbursts: Dust Processing in the M82 Superwind

We present JWST MIRI and NIRCam imaging of the inner ∼5 kpc of the M82 superwind at ~ $0''_{.}05 - 0''_{.}375$(∼0.9–6.5 pc) resolution. Targeted filters probe emission from polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs; F335M, F360M, F770W, F1130W) and continuum (F250M, F360M) The images reveal a network of cool wind filaments traced by PAHs. PAH surface brightness declines with the inverse square of distance to the midplane, suggesting that the incident radiation field from the starburst drives the observed PAH intensity out to ±2.5 kpc. The 3.3/11.3 and 3.3/7.7 μm band ratios show uniformity with distance from the starburst, though comparisons with mid-IR dust emission models indicate a modest shift toward larger PAHs. Outside the disk, 11.3/7.7 μm increases moderately, reflecting that PAHs become more neutral with distance from the starburst as they are exposed to a declining radiation field and ionization parameter. Overall, PAHs in the wind are consistent with standard-to-large sizes and standard-to-high ionization states. Including Spitzer and Herschel data, PAH abundance (q PAH ) is set at ∼1% in the starburst and remains unchanging out to ±5 kpc off the disk. This flat q PAH profile suggests that PAHs are shielded from the hot wind, perhaps residing in the surface layers of cool clouds, with possible replenishment from cloud interiors and enrichment of the halo from previous bursts. In this picture, clouds are not dense enough to promote PAH growth, and they likely undergo radiative cooling and mixing with the hot phase to survive the gauntlet for at least ∼20 Myr.

Cronin, Serena A. [University of Maryland, College↗

DOE OSTI2024

Turbulently Driven Detonation Initiation in Electron-degenerate Matter with Helium

Abstract Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) are standardizable cosmological candles that led to the discovery of the accelerating Universe. However, the physics of how white dwarfs (WDs) explode and lead to SNe Ia is still poorly understood. The initiation of the detonation front that rapidly disrupts the WD is a crucial element of the puzzle, and global 3D simulations of SNe Ia cannot resolve the requisite length scales to capture detonation initiation. In this work, we elucidate a theoretical criterion for detonation initiation in the distributed burning regime. We test this criterion against local 3D driven turbulent hydrodynamical simulations within electron-degenerate WD matter consisting initially of pure helium. We demonstrate a novel pathway for detonation, in which strong turbulent dissipation rapidly heats the helium, and forms carbon nuclei sufficient to lead to a detonation through accelerated burning via α captures. Simulations of strongly driven turbulent conditions lead to detonations at a mean density of 10 6 g cm −3 and mean temperature of 1.4–1.8 × 10 9 K, but fail to detonate at a lower density of 10 5 g cm −3 , in excellent agreement with theoretical predictions.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2023

High Sensitivity of Mobile Phone Microscopy Screening for Schistosoma haematobium in Azaguié, Côte d’Ivoire

Schistosomiasis infections continue to impact African settings disproportionately, and there is an urgent need for novel tools to evaluate infection control and elimination strategies at the community level. Mobile phone microscopes are portable and semiautomated devices with multiple applications for screening neglected tropical diseases. In a community-based schistosomiasis screening program in Azaguié, Côte d’Ivoire, mobile phone microscopy demonstrated a sensitivity of 85.7% (95% CI: 69.7–95.2%) and specificity of 93.3% (95% CI: 87.7–96.9%) for Schistosoma haematobium identification compared with conventional light microscopy, and 95% sensitivity (95% CI: 74.1–99.8%) with egg concentrations of five or more per 10 mL of urine. Mobile phone microscopy is a promising tool for schistosomiasis control and elimination efforts.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Robotic Planning under Uncertainty in Spatiotemporal Environments in Expeditionary Science

In the expeditionary sciences, spatiotemporally varying environments -- hydrothermal plumes, algal blooms, lava flows, or animal migrations -- are ubiquitous. Mobile robots are uniquely well-suited to study these dynamic, mesoscale natural environments. We formalize expeditionary science as a sequential decision-making problem, modeled using the language of partially-observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs). Solving the expeditionary science POMDP under real-world constraints requires efficient probabilistic modeling and decision-making in problems with complex dynamics and observational models. Previous work in informative path planning, adaptive sampling, and experimental design have shown compelling results, largely in static environments, using data-driven models and information-based rewards. However, these methodologies do not trivially extend to expeditionary science in spatiotemporal environments: they generally do not make use of scientific knowledge such as equations of state dynamics, they focus on information gathering as opposed to scientific task execution, and they make use of decision-making approaches that scale poorly to large, continuous problems with long planning horizons and real-time operational constraints. In this work, we discuss these and other challenges related to probabilistic modeling and decision-making in expeditionary science, and present some of our preliminary work that addresses these gaps. We ground our results in a real expeditionary science deployment of an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) in the deep ocean for hydrothermal vent discovery and characterization. Our concluding thoughts highlight remaining work to be done, and the challenges that merit consideration by the reinforcement learning and decision-making community.

Preston, Victoria↗

DOE OSTI2023

Dynamical Scaling Reveals Topological Defects and Anomalous Evolution of a Photoinduced Phase Transition

Nonequilibrium states of quantum materials can exhibit exotic properties and enable unprecedented functionality and applications. These transient states are inherently inhomogeneous, characterized by the formation of topologically protected structures, requiring nanometer spatial resolution on femtosecond timescales to resolve their evolution. Using ultrafast total x-ray scattering at a free electron laser and a sophisticated scaling analysis, we gain unique access to the dynamics on the relevant mesoscopic lengthscales. Our results provide direct evidence that ultrafast excitation of LaTe$_3$ leads to formation of topological vortex strings of the charge density wave. These dislocations of the charge density wave exhibit anomalous, subdiffusive dynamics, slowing the equilibration process, providing rare insight into the nonequilibrium mesoscopic response in a quantum material. Our findings establish a general framework to investigate properties of topological defects, which are expected to be ubiquitous in nonequilibrium phase transitions and may arrest equilibration and enhance competing orders.

FOS: Physical sciences↗

DOE OSTI2020

A machine learning approach to emulation and biophysical parameter estimation with the Community Land Model, version 5

Abstract. Land models are essential tools for understanding and predicting terrestrial processes and climate–carbon feedbacks in the Earth system, but uncertainties in their future projections are poorly understood. Improvements in physical process realism and the representation of human influence arguably make models more comparable to reality but also increase the degrees of freedom in model configuration, leading to increased parametric uncertainty in projections. In this work we design and implement a machine learning approach to globally calibrate a subset of the parameters of the Community Land Model, version 5 (CLM5) to observations of carbon and water fluxes. We focus on parameters controlling biophysical features such as surface energy balance, hydrology, and carbon uptake. We first use parameter sensitivity simulations and a combination of objective metrics including ranked global mean sensitivity to multiple output variables and non-overlapping spatial pattern responses between parameters to narrow the parameter space and determine a subset of important CLM5 biophysical parameters for further analysis. Using a perturbed parameter ensemble, we then train a series of artificial feed-forward neural networks to emulate CLM5 output given parameter values as input. We use annual mean globally aggregated spatial variability in carbon and water fluxes as our emulation and calibration targets. Validation and out-of-sample tests are used to assess the predictive skill of the networks, and we utilize permutation feature importance and partial dependence methods to better interpret the results. The trained networks are then used to estimate global optimal parameter values with greater computational efficiency than achieved by hand tuning efforts and increased spatial scale relative to previous studies optimizing at a single site. By developing this methodology, our framework can help quantify the contribution of parameter uncertainty to overall uncertainty in land model projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Benchmarking and parameter sensitivity of physiological and vegetation dynamics using the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) at Barro Colorado Island, Panama

Plant functional traits determine vegetation responses to environmental variation, but variation in trait values is large, even within a single site. Likewise, uncertainty in how these traits map to Earth system feedbacks is large. We use a vegetation demographic model (VDM), the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), to explore parameter sensitivity of model predictions, and comparison to observations, at a tropical forest site: Barro Colorado Island in Panama. We define a single 12-dimensional distribution of plant trait variation, derived primarily from observations in Panama, and define plant functional types (PFTs) as random draws from this distribution. We compare several model ensembles, where individual ensemble members vary only in the plant traits that define PFTs, and separate ensembles differ from each other based on either model structural assumptions or non-trait, ecosystem-level parameters, which include (a) the number of competing PFTs present in any simulation and (b) parameters that govern disturbance and height-based light competition. While single-PFT simulations are roughly consistent with observations of productivity at Barro Colorado Island, increasing the number of competing PFTs strongly shifts model predictions towards higher productivity and biomass forests. Different ecosystem variables show greater sensitivity than others to the number of competing PFTs, with the predictions that are most dominated by large trees, such as biomass, being the most sensitive. Changing disturbance and height-sorting parameters, i.e., the rules of competitive trait filtering, shifts regimes of dominance or coexistence between early- and late-successional PFTs in the model. Increases to the extent or severity of disturbance, or to the degree of determinism in height-based light competition, all act to shift the community towards early-successional PFTs. In turn, these shifts in competitive outcomes alter predictions of ecosystem states and fluxes, with more early-successional-dominated forests having lower biomass. It is thus crucial to differentiate between plant traits, which are under competitive pressure in VDMs, from those model parameters that are not and to better understand the relationships between these two types of model parameters to quantify sources of uncertainty in VDMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗