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At least 667 records · Page 37

Moving beyond post hoc explainable artificial intelligence: a perspective paper on lessons learned from dynamical climate modeling

AI models are criticized as being black boxes, potentially subjecting climate science to greater uncertainty. Explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) has been proposed to probe AI models and increase trust. In this review and perspective paper, we suggest that, in addition to using XAI methods, AI researchers in climate science can learn from past successes in the development of physics-based dynamical climate models. Dynamical models are complex but have gained trust because their successes and failures can sometimes be attributed to specific components or sub-models, such as when model bias is explained by pointing to a particular parameterization. We propose three types of understanding as a basis to evaluate trust in dynamical and AI models alike: (1) instrumental understanding, which is obtained when a model has passed a functional test; (2) statistical understanding, obtained when researchers can make sense of the modeling results using statistical techniques to identify input–output relationships; and (3) component-level understanding, which refers to modelers' ability to point to specific model components or parts in the model architecture as the culprit for erratic model behaviors or as the crucial reason why the model functions well. We demonstrate how component-level understanding has been sought and achieved via climate model intercomparison projects over the past several decades. Such component-level understanding routinely leads to model improvements and may also serve as a template for thinking about AI-driven climate science. Currently, XAI methods can help explain the behaviors of AI models by focusing on the mapping between input and output, thereby increasing the statistical understanding of AI models. Yet, to further increase our understanding of AI models, we will have to build AI models that have interpretable components amenable to component-level understanding. We give recent examples from the AI climate science literature to highlight some recent, albeit limited, successes in achieving component-level understanding and thereby explaining model behavior. The merit of such interpretable AI models is that they serve as a stronger basis for trust in climate modeling and, by extension, downstream uses of climate model data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Automatic Black-Box Model Order Reduction using Radial Basis Functions

Finite elements methods have long made use of model order reduction (MOR), particularly in the context of fast freqeucny sweeps. In this paper, we discuss a black-box MOR technique, applicable to a many solution methods and not restricted only to spectral responses. We also discuss automated methods for generating a reduced order model that meets a given error tolerance. Numerical examples demonstrate the effectiveness and wide applicability of the method. With the advent of improved computing hardware and numerous fast solution techniques, the field of computational electromagnetics are progressed rapidly in terms of the size and complexity of problems that can be solved. Numerous applications, however, require the solution of a problem for many different configurations, including optimization, parameter exploration, and uncertainly quantification, where the parameters that may be changed include frequency, material properties, geometric dimensions, etc. In such cases, thousands of solutions may be needed, so solve times of even a few minutes can be burdensome. Model order reduction (MOR) may alleviate this difficulty by creating a small model that can be evaluated quickly. Many MOR techniques have been applied to electromagnetic problems over the past few decades, particularly in the context of fast frequency sweeps. Recent works have extended these methods to allow more than one parameter and to allow the parameters to represent material and geometric properties. There are still limitations with these methods, however. First, they almost always assume that the finite element method is used to solve the problem, so that the system matrix is a known function of the parameters. Second, although some authors have presented adaptive methods (e.g., [2]), the order of the model is often determined before the MOR process begins, with little insight about what order is actually needed to reach the desired accuracy. Finally, it not clear how to efficiently extend most methods to the multiparameter case. This paper address the above shortcomings be developing a method that uses a block-box approach to the solution method, is adaptive, and is easily extensible to many parameters.

42 ENGINEERING↗

SU-E-T-520: Four-Dimensional Dose Calculation Algorithm Considering Variations in Dose Distribution Induced by Sinusoidal One-Dimensional Motion Patterns

Purpose: To investigate quantitatively the variations in dose-distributions induced by motion by measurements and modeling. A four-dimensional (4D) motion model of dose distributions that accounts for different motion parameters was developed. Methods: Variations in dose distributions induced by sinusoidal phantom motion were measured using a multiple-diode-array-detector (MapCheck2). MapCheck2 was mounted on a mobile platform that moves with adjustable calibrated motion patterns in the superior-inferior direction. Various plans including open and intensity-modulated fields were used to irradiate MapCheck2. A motion model was developed to predict spatial and temporal variations in the dose-distributions and dependence on the motion parameters using pencil-beam spread-out superposition function. This model used the superposition of pencil-beams weighted with a probability function extracted from the motion trajectory. The model was verified with measured dose-distributions obtained from MapCheck2. Results: Dose-distribution varied considerably with motion where in the regions between isocenter and 50% isodose-line, dose decreased with increase of the motion amplitude. Dose levels increased with increase in the motion amplitude in the region beyond 50% isodose-line. When the range of motion (ROM=twice amplitude) was smaller than the field length both central axis dose and the 50% isodose-line did not change with variation of motion amplitude and remained equal to the dose of stationary phantom. As ROM became larger than the field length, the dose level decreased at central axis dose and 50% isodose-line. Motion frequency and phase did not affect the dose distributions which were delivered over an extended time longer than few motion cycles, however, they played an important role for doses delivered with high-dose-rates within one motion cycle . Conclusion: A 4D-dose motion model was developed to predict and correct variations in dose distributions induced by one-dimensional sinusoidal motion. This model was verified with measured dose-distributions and can be expanded to consider complicated patient motion patterns.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Spacecraft surface charging as a function of material properties

Spacecraft material behavior plays a very important role in space missions. Spacecraft immersed in plasma get charged by absorbing plasma particles and by emitting electrons from spacecraft surfaces via photoelectron and secondary electron emission. Spacecraft charging depends heavily on material properties such as work function, secondary electron yield, dielectric constant, and electric conductivity among other. Material properties are typically assumed to be static in charging models. However, it is well known that this is not the case in space. This makes spacecraft charging predictions very challenging. Material properties are well characterized before the spacecraft is put in orbit through characterization in the lab under clean conditions. However, once in space, material properties change due to the harsh and very dynamic space environment. We present a new capability to predict material behavior in space from first-principles modeling. The ongoing effort seeks to couple material models, density functional theory (DFT) and molecular dynamic (MD) codes, with environment models, plasma kinetic codes. This preliminary study will show results of surface charging as a function of material work function, dielectric constant, and conductivity.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Spin densities from subsystem density-functional theory: Assessment and application to a photosynthetic reaction center complex model

Subsystem density-functional theory (DFT) is a powerful and efficient alternative to Kohn-Sham DFT for large systems composed of several weakly interacting subunits. Here, we provide a systematic investigation of the spin-density distributions obtained in subsystem DFT calculations for radicals in explicit environments. This includes a small radical in a solvent shell, a {pi}-stacked guanine-thymine radical cation, and a benchmark application to a model for the special pair radical cation, which is a dimer of bacteriochlorophyll pigments, from the photosynthetic reaction center of purple bacteria. We investigate the differences in the spin densities resulting from subsystem DFT and Kohn-Sham DFT calculations. In these comparisons, we focus on the problem of overdelocalization of spin densities due to the self-interaction error in DFT. It is demonstrated that subsystem DFT can reduce this problem, while it still allows to describe spin-polarization effects crossing the boundaries of the subsystems. In practical calculations of spin densities for radicals in a given environment, it may thus be a pragmatic alternative to Kohn-Sham DFT calculations. In our calculation on the special pair radical cation, we show that the coordinating histidine residues reduce the spin-density asymmetry between the two halves of this system, while inclusion of a larger binding pocket model increases this asymmetry. The unidirectional energy transfer in photosynthetic reaction centers is related to the asymmetry introduced by the protein environment.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Multi-scale First-Principles Modeling of Three-Phase System of Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Fuel Cel

The three-phase system consisting of Nafion, graphite and platinum in the presence of water is studied using molecule dynamics simulation. The force fields describing the molecular interaction between the components in the system are developed to reproduce the energies calculated from density functional theory modeling. The configuration of such complicated three-phase system is predicted through MD simulations. The nanophase-segregation and transport properties are investigated from the equilibrium state. The coverage of the electrolyte on the platinum surface and the dissolution of oxygen are analyzed.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Atmospheric pressure arc discharge with ablating graphite anode

The anodic carbon arc discharge is used to produce carbon nanoparticles. Recent experiments with the carbon arc at atmospheric pressure helium demonstrated the enhanced ablation rate for narrow graphite anodes resulting in high deposition rates of carbonaceous products on the copper cathode (Fetterman et al 2008 Carbon 46 1322–6). The proposed model explains these results with interconnected steady-state models of the cathode and the anode processes. When considering cathode functioning, the model predicts circulation of the particles in the near-cathode region: evaporation of the cathode material, ionization of evaporated atoms and molecules in the near-cathode plasma, return of the resulting ions to the cathode, surface recombination of ions and electrons followed again by cathode evaporation etc. In the case of the low anode ablation rate, the ion acceleration in the cathode sheath provides the major cathode heating mechanism. In the case of an intensive anode ablation, an additional cathode heating is due to latent fusion heat of the atomic species evaporated from the anode and depositing at the cathode. Using the experimental arc voltage as the only input discharge parameter, the model allows us to calculate the anode ablation rate. A comparison of the results of calculations with the available experimental data shows reasonable agreement.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

Temporal Error Correlations in a Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Model Derived by Comparison to Carbon Dioxide Eddy Covariance Flux Tower Measurements

Abstract Atmospheric CO 2 flux inversions require as input an estimate of spatial and temporal correlations of errors in their estimate of the prior mean. Some previous studies have used the differences in CO 2 daily average flux estimates produced by terrestrial carbon cycle models and eddy covariance measurements to constrain the flux error correlations. Since inversions are starting to resolve the daily cycle, we set out to examine the correlations at sub‐daily time scales, as well as the correlations across years. To this end, we examine the autocorrelations in the difference between net ecosystem‐atmosphere exchange measurements from 75 AmeriFlux towers and temporally downscaled high‐spatial‐resolution flux estimates from the Carnegie‐Ames‐Stanford Approach (CASA) terrestrial carbon cycle model. We find that the daily cycle is prominent in these hourly autocorrelations and that these autocorrelations persist across years. We propose a family of functions to model these temporal correlations in atmospheric inversions, and use cross validation to determine which of the correlation functions best fits autocorrelation data from towers not in the training set. Correlation functions with a component that attempts to model the daily cycle in the differences match correlations from other towers better than those without. Those models that reproduce the same correlation structures at 1‐year intervals while modulating the amplitudes of the correlations between those intervals improve the fit still further.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comparing correlation components and approximations in Hartree–Fock and Kohn–Sham theories via an analytical test case study

The asymmetric Hubbard dimer is a model that allows for explicit expressions of the Hartree–Fock (HF) and Kohn–Sham (KS) states as analytical functions of the external potential, Δv, and of the interaction strength, U. We use this unique circumstance to establish a rigorous comparison between the individual contributions to the correlation energies stemming from the two theories in the {U, Δv} parameter space. Within this analysis of the Hubbard dimer, we observe a change in the sign of the HF kinetic correlation energy, compare the indirect repulsion energies, and derive an expression for the “traditional” correlation energy, i.e., the one that corrects the HF estimate, in a pure site-occupation function theory spirit [Eq. (45)]. Next, we test the performances of the Liu–Burke and the Seidl–Perdew–Levy functionals, which model the correlation energy based on its weak- and strong-interaction limit expansions and can be used for both the traditional and the KS correlation energies. Further, our results show that, in the Hubbard dimer setting, they typically work better for the HF reference, despite having been originally devised for KS. These conclusions are somewhat in line with prior assessments of these functionals on various chemical datasets. However, the Hubbard dimer model allows us to show the extent of the error that may occur in using the strong-interaction ingredient for the KS reference in place of the one for the HF reference, as has been carried out in most of the prior assessments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Interfacing electron and neutrino quasielastic scattering cross sections with the spectral function in GENIE

Progress in neutrino-nucleus cross section models is being driven by the need for highly accurate predictions for the neutrino oscillation community. These sophisticated models are being developed within a microscopic description of the nucleus with the goal of encompassing all reaction modes relevant for the accelerator neutrino program. The disconnect between these microscopic models and the event generators that will be used in the next generation of experiments represents a critical obstacle that must be overcome in order to precisely measure the neutrino oscillation parameters. To this end we have developed a hadron tensor interface for lepton-nucleus quasielastic (QE) scattering within the GENIE event generator as a proof of principle, with the broader goal of creating an efficient pipeline for incorporating advanced theoretical models in event generators. As a demonstration of this interface we have implemented the spectral function model into GENIE by connecting theorist provided fortran code through the hadron tensor interface. The spectral function model offers a more complete description of the nuclear ground state, as well as the ability to provide quantifiable theoretical uncertainties. Finally, we validate this implementation and compare its predictions against data and against QE models already available in GENIE.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

FUEL EFFICIENT GALAXIES: SUSTAINING STAR FORMATION WITH STELLAR MASS LOSS

We examine the importance of secular stellar mass loss for fueling ongoing star formation in disk galaxies during the late stages of their evolution. For a galaxy of a given stellar mass, we calculate the total mass loss rate of its entire stellar population using star formation histories derived from the observed evolution of the M{sub *}-star formation rate (SFR) relation, along with the predictions of standard stellar evolution models for stellar mass loss for a variety of initial stellar mass functions. Our model shows that recycled gas from stellar mass loss can provide most or all of the fuel required to sustain the current level of star formation in late-type galaxies. Stellar mass loss can therefore remove the tension between the low gas infall rates that are derived from observations and the relatively rapid star formation occurring in disk galaxies. For galaxies where cold gas infall rates have been estimated, we demonstrate explicitly that stellar mass loss can account for most of the deficit between their SFR and infall rate.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Novel Histogram Based Unsupervised Classification Technique to Determine Natural Classes From Biophysically Relevant Fit Parameters to Hyperspectral Data

Hyperspectral image analysis has benefited from an array of methods that take advantage of the increased spectral depth compared to multispectral sensors; however, the focus of these developments has been on supervised classification methods. Lack of a priori knowledge regarding land cover characteristics can make unsupervised classification methods preferable under certain circumstances. An unsupervised classification technique is presented in this paper that utilizes physically relevant basis functions to model the reflectance spectra. These fit parameters used to generate the basis functions allow clustering based on spectral characteristics rather than spectral channels and provide both noise and data reduction. Histogram splitting of the fit parameters is then used as a means of producing an unsupervised classification. Unlike current unsupervised classification techniques that rely primarily on Euclidian distance measures to determine similarity, the unsupervised classification technique uses the natural splitting of the fit parameters associated with the basis functions creating clusters that are similar in terms of physical parameters. The data set used in this work utilizes the publicly available data collected at Indian Pines, Indiana. This data set provides reference data allowing for comparisons of the efficacy of different unsupervised data analysis. The unsupervised histogram splitting technique presented in this paper is shown to be better than the standard unsupervised ISODATA clustering technique with an overall accuracy of 34.3/19.0% before merging and 40.9/39.2% after merging. Finally, this improvement is also seen as an improvement of kappa before/after merging of 24.8/30.5 for the histogram splitting technique compared to 15.8/28.5 for ISODATA.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Perspective: Ab initio force field methods derived from quantum mechanics

It is often desirable to accurately and efficiently model the behavior of large molecular systems in the condensed phase (thousands to tens of thousands of atoms) over long time scales (from nanoseconds to milliseconds). In these cases, ab initio methods are difficult due to the increasing computational cost with the number of electrons. A more computationally attractive alternative is to perform the simulations at the atomic level using a parameterized function to model the electronic energy. Many empirical force fields have been developed for this purpose. However, the functions that are used to model interatomic and intermolecular interactions contain many fitted parameters obtained from selected model systems, and such classical force fields cannot properly simulate important electronic effects. Furthermore, while such force fields are computationally affordable, they are not reliable when applied to systems that differ significantly from those used in their parameterization. They also cannot provide the information necessary to analyze the interactions that occur in the system, making the systematic improvement of the functional forms that are used difficult. Ab initio force field methods aim to combine the merits of both types of methods. The ideal ab initio force fields are built on first principles and require no fitted parameters. Ab initio force field methods surveyed in this perspective are based on fragmentation approaches and intermolecular perturbation theory. This perspective summarizes their theoretical foundation, key components in their formulation, and discusses key aspects of these methods such as accuracy and formal computational cost. The ab initio force fields considered here were developed for different targets, and this perspective also aims to provide a balanced presentation of their strengths and shortcomings. Finally, this perspective suggests some future directions for this actively developing area.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

A data science approach for analysis and reconstruction of spinodal-like composition fields in irradiated FeCrAl alloys

A statistical method for the analysis of continuously distributed data representative of composition fluctuations in irradiated FeCrAl alloys acquired using Energy Dispersive X-ray Spectroscopy (EDS) method is presented. Using probability distribution functions, direct and cross-covariances between the elemental compositions, the effects of alloy composition and irradiation dose were investigated on the spatial distribution and length scale of composition fluctuations at the nanoscale. We have observed that, for neutron-irradiated FeCrAl alloys, the distribution of Fe and Cr followed a left-skewed and right-skewed distribution, respectively for all (average) alloy compositions and irradiation doses. The analysis also revealed enhanced spatial gradients in the elemental compositions at higher irradiation dose. Direct and cross-covariance estimates of the experimental data were also utilized for reconstruction of composition data through fitting it to a parametric form of the covariance functions. Linear Model of Coregionalization was used to determine the parameters of the covariance functions. Subsequently, a spectral method was utilized for simulating a realization of the alloy compositions. Close correspondence was observed between the experimental and the reconstructed data which was analyzed using probability distribution functions and covariance functions. Composition space of the experimental and reconstructed data and dislocation velocities as a function of applied stress and line directions over the entire composition maps were also examined.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Thermodynamic evaluation and modeling of the CeF 3 -LaF 3 -LiF-NaF system

The thermodynamic properties of the LiF-NaF-CeF 3 -LaF 3 pseudo-quaternary system have been evaluated, and models for the relevant phases have been revised or newly developed. The solid solubility of NaF in LaF 3 and CeF 3 was described in the model based on reported phase-equilibria observations and results from density functional theory calculations. The Gibbs energy functions for the NaCeF 4 and NaLaF 4 phases have been updated with recently reported thermochemical measurements. The Gibbs energy functions and model relations for the LiF-NaF-LaF 3 and LiF-NaF-CeF 3 pseudo-ternary systems were successfully optimized based on thermochemical properties and phase equilibria observations.

CALPHAD↗

A priori analysis of a power-law sub-filter scale mixing model for transported PDF modeling of high Karlovitz turbulent premixed flames

Accurate modeling of mixing in large-eddy simulation (LES) / transported probability density function (PDF) modeling of turbulent combustion remains an outstanding issue. The issue is particularly salient in turbulent premixed combustion under extreme conditions such as high-Karlovitz number Ka. Here, the present study addresses this issue by conducting an a priori analysis of a power-law scaling based mixing timescale model for the transported PDF model. A recently produced DNS dataset of a high-Ka turbulent jet flame is used for the analysis. A power-law scaling is observed for a scaling factor used to model the sub-filter scale mixing timescale in this high-Ka turbulent premixed DNS flame when the LES filter size is much greater than the characteristic thermal thickness of a laminar premixed flame. The sensitivity of the observed power-law scaling to the different viewpoints (local or global) and to the different scalars for the data analysis is examined and the dependence of the model parameters on the dimensionless numbers Ka and Re (the Reynolds number) is investigated. Different model formulations for the mixing timescale are then constructed and assessed in the DNS flame. The proposed model is found to be able to reproduce the mixing timescale informed by the high-Ka DNS flame significantly better than a previous model.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Statistical analysis of non-Maxwellian electron distribution functions measured with angularly resolved Thomson scattering

Angularly resolved Thomson scattering is a novel extension of Thomson scattering, enabling the measurement of the electron velocity distribution function over many orders of magnitude. Here, details of the theoretical basis of the technique and the instrument designed for this measurement are described. Angularly resolved Thomson-scattering data from several experiments are shown with descriptions of the corresponding distribution functions. A reduced model describing the distribution function is given and used to perform a Monte Carlo analysis of the uncertainty in the measurements. The electron density and temperature were determined to a precision of 12% and 21%, respectively, on average, while all other parameters defining the distribution function were generally determined to better than 20%. It was found that these uncertainties were primarily due to limited signal to noise and instrumental effects. Furthermore, measurements with this level of precision were sufficient to distinguish between Maxwellian and non-Maxwellian distribution functions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗