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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Scenario Generation for Built Environment Decision Support under Uncertainty: Case Studies of Airflow Modeling and Climate-Resilient Infrastructure System Design

When confronted with unforeseen challenges, practicing informed decision making is crucial for enhancing resilience in the built environment. While scan-to-building information modeling (BIM) is a well-established approach for creating detailed digital representations of physical assets, its application in assessing and improving infrastructure resilience remains underexplored. This study addresses this gap by proposing a novel application of scan-to-BIM, namely, scan-to-BIM-to-digital twin (S-BIM-DT) workflow. By integrating reality capture and digital twin technologies, this workflow creates continuously updated and accurate digital representations of physical assets, enabling the generation of various scenarios. Unlike traditional methods, the S BIM-DT workflow facilitates continuous model refinement, supporting informed resilience strategies. By combining these technologies into a cohesive process, the workflow facilitates decision making under uncertainty, enabling stakeholders to evaluate and respond to various scenarios effectively. We demonstrate the implementation of the S-BIM-DT workflow through two use cases that highlight its capability to enhance resilience at different scales. The first use case involves the Combined Transportation, Emergency, and Communications Center (CTECC) in Austin, Texas. BIM-enriched computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling simulates airflow and develops alternative scenarios for optimizing the heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems. This approach enhances resilience against airborne health threats in a postCOVID context. The second use case focuses on designated areas within Beaumont, Texas, as part of the Southeast Texas Urban Integrated Field Laboratory (SETx-UIFL) research. By developing inundation maps to assess extreme weather events, this modeling aids in preparedness efforts and informs the development of climate-resilient infrastructure in vulnerable neighborhoods. Results indicate that the S-BIM-DT workflow effectively generates scenarios that enhance resilience in the built environment by facilitating informed decision making. Furthermore, this study serves as a bridge between advanced scan-to-BIM methodologies and the practical strategies needed to improve built infrastructure resilience.

Built environment↗
DOE OSTI2022

Deep structural clustering for single-cell RNA-seq data jointly through autoencoder and graph neural network

Abstract Single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) permits researchers to study the complex mechanisms of cell heterogeneity and diversity. Unsupervised clustering is of central importance for the analysis of the scRNA-seq data, as it can be used to identify putative cell types. However, due to noise impacts, high dimensionality and pervasive dropout events, clustering analysis of scRNA-seq data remains a computational challenge. Here, we propose a new deep structural clustering method for scRNA-seq data, named scDSC, which integrate the structural information into deep clustering of single cells. The proposed scDSC consists of a Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB) model-based autoencoder, a graph neural network (GNN) module and a mutual-supervised module. To learn the data representation from the sparse and zero-inflated scRNA-seq data, we add a ZINB model to the basic autoencoder. The GNN module is introduced to capture the structural information among cells. By joining the ZINB-based autoencoder with the GNN module, the model transfers the data representation learned by autoencoder to the corresponding GNN layer. Furthermore, we adopt a mutual supervised strategy to unify these two different deep neural architectures and to guide the clustering task. Extensive experimental results on six real scRNA-seq datasets demonstrate that scDSC outperforms state-of-the-art methods in terms of clustering accuracy and scalability. Our method scDSC is implemented in Python using the Pytorch machine-learning library, and it is freely available at https://github.com/DHUDBlab/scDSC.

Gan, Yanglan↗
DOE OSTI2021

Combining Astrometry and Elemental Abundances: The Case of the Candidate Pre-Gaia Halo Moving Groups G03-37, G18-39, and G21-22

While most moving groups are young and nearby, a small number have been identified in the Galactic halo. Understanding the origin and evolution of these groups is an important piece of reconstructing the formation history of the halo. Here we report on our analysis of three putative halo moving groups: G03-37, G18-39, and G21-22. Based on Gaia EDR3 data, the stars associated with each group show some scatter in velocity (e.g., Toomre diagram) and integrals of motion (energy, angular momentum) spaces, counter to expectations of moving-group stars. We choose the best candidate of the three groups, G21-22, for follow-up chemical analysis based on high-resolution spectroscopy of six presumptive members. Using a new Python code that uses a Bayesian method to self-consistently propagate uncertainties from stellar atmosphere solutions in calculating individual abundances and spectral synthesis, we derive the abundances of α- (Mg, Si, Ca, Ti), Fe-peak (Cr, Sc, Mn, Fe, Ni), odd-Z (Na, Al, V), and neutron-capture (Ba, Eu) elements for each star. We find that the G21-22 stars are not chemically homogeneous. Based on the kinematic analysis for all three groups and the chemical analysis for G21-22, we conclude the three are not genuine moving groups. The case for G21-22 demonstrates the benefit of combining kinematic and chemical information in identifying conatal populations when either alone may be insufficient. Comparing the integrals of motion and velocities of the six G21-22 stars with those of known structures in the halo, we tentatively associate them with the Gaia-Enceladus accretion event.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Effective Field Theory for jet substructure in heavy ion collisions

I develop an Effective Field Theory (EFT) framework to compute jet substructure observables for heavy ion collision experiments. As an example, I consider dijet events that accompany the formation of a weakly coupled long lived Quark Gluon Plasma (QGP) medium in a heavy ion collision and look at an observable insensitive to jet selection bias: the simultaneous measurement of jet mass along with the transverse momentum imbalance between the jets that are groomed to remove soft radiation. Treating the jet as an open quantum system, I write down a factorization formula within the SCET (Soft Collinear Effective Theory) framework in the forward scattering regime. The physics of the medium is encoded in a universal soft field correlator while the jet-medium interaction is captured by a medium induced jet function. The factorization formula leads to a Lindblad type equation for the evolution of the reduced density matrix of the jet in the Markovian approximation. The solution for this equation allows a resummation of large logarithms that arise due to the final state measurements imposed while simultaneously summing over multiple incoherent interactions of the jet with the medium.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Developing new analysis tools for near surface radio-based neutrino detectors

The ARIANNA experiment is an Askaryan radio detector designed to measure high-energy neutrino induced cascades within the Antarctic ice. Ultra-high-energy neutrinos above 10 16 eV have an extremely low flux, so experimental data captured at trigger level need to be classified correctly to retain as much neutrino signal as possible. We first describe two new physics-based neutrino selection methods, or "cuts", (the updown and dipole cut) that extend the previously published analysis to a specialized ARIANNA station with 8 antenna channels, which is double the number used in the prior analysis. For a standard trigger with a threshold signal to noise ratio at 4.4, the new cuts produce a neutrino efficiency of > 95% per station-year of operation, while rejecting 99.93% of the background (corresponding to 53 remaining experimental background events). When the new cuts are combined with a previously developed cut using neutrino waveform templates, all background is removed at no change of efficiency. In addition, the neutrino efficiency is extrapolated to 1,000 station-years of operation, obtaining 91%. This work then introduces a new selection method (the deep learning cut) to augment the identification of neutrino events by using deep learning methods and compares the efficiency to the physics-based analysis. The deep learning cut gives 99% signal efficiency per station-year of operation while rejecting 99.997% of the background (corresponding to 2 remaining experimental background events), which are subsequently removed by the waveform template cut at no significant change in efficiency. Here the results of the deep learning cut were verified using measured cosmic rays which shows that the simulations do not introduce artifacts with respect to experimental data. The paper demonstrates that the background rejection and signal efficiency of near surface antennas meets the requirements of a large scale future array, as considered in baseline design of the radio component of IceCube-Gen2.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

UAS Live Incursion Drills Survey

Unmanned aircraft systems (UAS/drones) are rapidly evolving and are considered an emerging threat by nuclear facilities throughout the world. Due to the wide range of UAS capabilities, members of the workforce and security/response force personnel need to be prepared for a variety of drone incursion situations. Tabletop exercises are helpful, but actual live exercises are often needed to evaluate the quick chain of events that might ensue during a real drone fly-in and the essential kinds of information that will help identify the type of drone and pilot. Even with drone detection equipment, the type of UAS used for incursion drills can have a major impact on detection altitude and finding the UAS in the sky. Using a variety of UAS, the U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) Office of International Nuclear Security (INS) would like to offer partners the capability of adding actual UAS into workforce and response exercises to improve overall UAS awareness as well as the procedures that capture critical steps in dealing with intruding drones.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Can ERA5 Be Used to Study Mesoscale Convective System Climatological Characteristics?

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) produce more than half of tropical rainfall and are central to the global hydrologic cycle. As the climate warms, environments favorable for MCSs may become more common; however, limited observational records hamper understanding of how MCSs respond to variations and changes in their environments. Here, we evaluate how well MCSs are represented in ERA5, a widely used global high‐resolution reanalysis product. Using PyFLEXTRKR, which jointly tracks top‐of‐atmosphere infrared brightness temperature and surface precipitation, we identified MCSs in ERA5 and compared them with those identified in satellite observations using the same detection algorithm. This comparison analysis spans 2007–2020 using hourly data at 0.25° horizontal resolution focusing over the tropics. ERA5 reproduces observed brightness‐temperature statistics and captures the geographic distribution and seasonal and diurnal cycles of MCS cold cloud shields. However, ERA5 precipitation exhibits an intensity bias—too much light rain and too little heavy rain—which shifts the rain‐rate distribution and reduces the frequency of MCSs relative to observations. Within MCSs, ERA5 precipitation exhibits the same pattern of bias, yielding a systematic underestimation of MCS precipitation intensity. Consistent with these biases, ERA5 underestimates the contribution of MCS to tropical rainfall by 25%–34% in key regions. Overall, ERA5 is suitable for studying MCS cold cloud‐shield climatology and evolution, but precipitation‐based MCS characteristics (including event‐level precipitation features and the geospatial distribution of MCS precipitation) should be interpreted with caution. These findings clarify which aspects of MCS behavior are robustly represented in ERA5 for climatological applications.

mesoscale convection↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating E3SM Global Storm‐Resolving Model Simulations of Deep Convection: Insights From DP‐SCREAM During TRACER

Global Storm-Resolving Models (GSRMs) are becoming increasingly vital for advancing climate modeling and improving the prediction of extreme weather events. Houston, a coastal region frequently affected by deep convective storms, offers an ideal setting to evaluate the ability of GSRMs to simulate deep convection. This study assesses the performance of the Doubly Periodic Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM (Energy Exascale Earth System Model) Atmosphere Model (DP-SCREAM) using observations from the TRacking Aerosol Convection interactions ExpeRiment (TRACER) campaign. DP-SCREAM effectively reproduces the diurnal cycles of clouds and precipitation, demonstrating much greater skill than the E3SM single column model. The DP-SCREAM is demonstrated to be applicable to coastal regions, partially due to the forcing data sets already capturing the influence of breezes. DP-SCREAM also replicates biases persistent in the global version of SCREAM: the underrepresentation of boundary layer shallow clouds, a lack of mid-level congestus clouds, and the popcorn convection, characterized by small and disorganized convective cells generating the strongest precipitation. To investigate these issues, two sensitivity experiments were conducted: increasing the mixing length and scaling up the buoyancy flux within the Simplified Higher Order Closure scheme. Increasing the mixing length improved mid-level congestus representation and reduced unrealistic early morning fog occurrence. Enhancing buoyancy flux only marginally improved the bias of underproduced big convective cells. In conclusion, an additional resolution sensitivity test at 0.5 km grid spacing demonstrated that a refined horizontal resolution alone is insufficient to resolve these biases.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Great Inequality and the Dynamical Disintegration of the Outer Solar System

Using an ensemble of N-body simulations, this paper considers the fate of the outer gas giants (Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune) after the Sun leaves the main sequence and completes its stellar evolution. Due to solar mass loss—which is expected to remove roughly half of the star’s mass—the orbits of the giant planets expand. This adiabatic process maintains the orbital period ratios, but the mutual interactions between planets and the width of mean-motion resonances (MMR) increase, leading to the capture of Jupiter and Saturn into a stable 5:2 resonant configuration. The expanded orbits, coupled with the large-amplitude librations of the critical MMR angle, make the system more susceptible to perturbations from stellar flyby interactions. Accordingly, within about 30 Gyr, stellar encounters perturb the planets onto the chaotic subdomain of the 5:2 resonance, triggering a large-scale instability, which culminates in the ejections of all but one planet over the subsequent ∼10 Gyr. After an additional ∼50 Gyr, a close stellar encounter (with a perihelion distance less than ∼200 au) liberates the final planet. Through this sequence of events, the characteristic timescale over which the solar system will be completely dissolved is roughly 100 Gyr. Our analysis thus indicates that the expected dynamical lifetime of the solar system is much longer than the current age of the universe, but is significantly shorter than previous estimates.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Toward Improved Charge Separation through Conformational Control in Copper Coordination Complexes

The continued development of solar energy as a renewable resource necessitates the design and study of new approaches to sustaining photodriven charge separation (CS). To this end, we present a bioinspired approach in which triggered conformational changes are used to control electron transfer (ET) events. We report, photo-induced conformational rearrangements of a ligand are translated into changes in the coordination geometry and environment about a bound metal ion. Taking advantage of the differential coordination properties of Cu I and Cu II , these dynamics facilitate intramolecular ET from Cu I to the ligand to create a CS state. The synthesis and photophysical characterization of CuCl(dpaa R ) (dpaa = dipicolylaminoacetophenone, with R = H and OMe) is presented. These ligands incorporate a fluorophore into their framework that gives rise to a twisted intramolecular charge transfer (TICT) excited state. Excited state ligand twisting provides a tetragonal coordination geometry capable of capturing Cu II in the CS state when an internal ortho-OMe binding site is present (as in dpaaOMe). We employ NMR, IR, EPR, and optical spectroscopies, X-ray diffraction, and electrochemical methods to establish the ground state properties of the Cu I and Cu II complexes. We then investigate the photophysical dynamics of these Cu I complexes via time-resolved photoluminescence (TR-PL), and optical transient absorption (OTA) spectroscopies. We show that relative to controls lacking a TICT-active ligand, the lifetime of the CS state is enhanced ~1000-fold. Further, the presence of the ortho-OMe substituent greatly enhances the lifetime of the TICT* state and biases the coordination environment toward Cu II . The presence of Cu I decreases photoinduced degradation from 14 to <2% but does not result in significant quenching via ET. Factors affecting CS in these systems are discussed, laying the groundwork for our strategy toward solar energy conversion.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Phenomenology of magnetic black holes with electroweak-symmetric coronas

Magnetically charged black holes (MBHs) are interesting solutions of the Standard Model and general relativity. They may possess a “hairy” electroweak-symmetric corona outside the event horizon, which speeds up their Hawking radiation and leads them to become nearly extremal on short timescales. Their masses could range from the Planck scale up to the Earth mass. We study various methods to search for primordially produced MBHs and estimate the upper limits on their abundance. We revisit the Parker bound on magnetic monopoles and show that it can be extended by several orders of magnitude using the large-scale coherent magnetic fields in Andromeda. This sets a mass-independent constraint that MBHs have an abundance less than 4 × 10 -4 times that of dark matter. MBHs can also be captured in astrophysical systems like the Sun, the Earth, or neutron stars. There, they can become non-extremal either from merging with an oppositely charged MBH or absorbing nucleons. The resulting Hawking radiation can be detected as neutrinos, photons, or heat. High-energy neutrino searches in particular can set a stronger bound than the Parker bound for some MBH masses, down to an abundance 10 -7 of dark matter.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Pushing the Limits of Pulse Shape Discrimination in a Large Liquid Xenon Detector

The LUX-ZEPLIN (LZ) experiment is a direct-detection dark matter experiment, optimized to search for weakly interacting massive particles (WIMPs) through WIMP-nucleon interactions. The main challenge in dark matter detection is differentiating between WIMP signals and background events. In LZ, the ratio of ionization to scintillation signals (charge-to-light) is the primary method for rejecting electronic recoil (ER) background. Pulse shape discrimination (PSD) offers a method for additional ER backgrounds rejection in liquid xenon detectors. In this paper, the discrimination power of PSD with the LZ experiment is discussed. To precisely characterize the scintillation pulse shape, an analysis framework is developed to reconstruct the detection time of individual photons. Using LZ calibration data, the photon-timing prompt fraction discriminator is optimized and achieves ER leakage as low as $15\%$. For specific background processes such as $^{124}$Xe double electron capture, the leakage is reduced further to about $5\%$. PSD is combined with charge-to-light to form two-factor discrimination (TFD). The optimized TFD performance is compared with the performance of the charge-to-light method, with the corresponding false positive rate reduced by up to a factor of two for large scintillation pulses. Finally, PSD and TFD are applied to data from LZ's WS2024 run and their performance is summarized.

Akerib, D. S. [SLAC; KIPAC, Menlo Park]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Material Fracturing and Failure Simulation Datasets

Fracturing is a fundamental physics phenomena with broad relevance across multiple domains, ranging from infrastructure integrity, aerospace durability, reservoir production, and seismic events. We present a diverse dataset of simulated fracture evolution and material failure generated from two numerical solvers: the phase-field method and the combined finite-discrete element method (FDEM). These solvers differ in formulation, physical fidelity, and computational efficiency. The dataset includes five materials: PBX, anisotropic shale, tungsten, aluminum, and steel. For each, phase-field simulations span 400,000 cases: 200,000 under uniaxial tension and 200,000 under biaxial tension. The computationally expensive FDEM simulations include 90,000 split evenly among PBX, shale, and tungsten under uniaxial loading. All simulations begin with randomized initial fracture patterns. Each entry includes temporal data capturing fracture propagation dynamics. This comprehensive dataset is designed to support the development of foundational or surrogate machine learning approaches for predicting material failure. While no such models are introduced here, the dataset lays a robust foundation for advancing future research and innovation in these areas.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Mutation of active site glutamate in serine hydroxymethyltransferase allows trapping a reactive intermediate: a combined neutron and X-ray crystallography study

Serine hydroxymethyltransferase (SHMT) is a pyridoxal-5′-phosphate (PLP) dependent enzyme that catalyzes a chemical transformation essential for the one-carbon (1C) metabolism. SHMT reversibly converts L-Ser into Gly and transfers a 1C unit to tetrahydrofolate (THF) to give 5,10-methylene-THF (5,10-MTHF). 5,10-MTHF, a 1C-unit donor, plays a crucial role in the downstream biomolecular syntheses required for the cell homeostasis and proliferation. SHMT is a prominent target for the drug discovery to battle bacterial and parasitic infections, and to treat various types of cancer. SHMT-catalyzed chemistry is governed by the general acid-base catalysis. Knowledge of the catalytic mechanism can aid drug design but can only be achieved when the atomic details of each reaction step are mapped, including accurate determination of hydrogen atom positions. Here we utilized the inactive E53Q mutant of Thermus thermophilus ( Tth ) SHMT to directly determine protonation states with room-temperature neutron crystallography and to capture a reactive intermediate containing the PLP-L-Ser external aldimine and THF in the enzyme active site. We observed protonation of the Schiff base nitrogen (N SB ) in the PLP internal aldimine but no change in the protonation states of other ionizable PLP groups and active site residues compared to wild-type Tth SHMT. X-ray structural analysis of the ternary intermediate complex E53Q-Ser-THF that eluded previous structural characterization shows the strategic positioning of the E53Q side chain in close proximity to the external aldimine and THF and reinforces the proposed role for E53 as the driver of proton transfer events along the reaction pathway.

Drago, Victoria N. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Flood Estimation under Snowmelt and Rain-on-Snow Processes in Alaska: A Military Installation Perspective

Accurate flood estimation in snow-dominated and high-latitude regions remains challenging due to complex interactions among rainfall, snowmelt, and rain-on-snow (ROS) processes, which are not captured in conventional precipitation-based intensity-duration-frequency (PREC-IDF) curves. This study evaluates the Next-Generation IDF (NG-IDF) framework, an extension of PREC-IDF that incorporates total water available for runoff (precipitation minus changes in snow water equivalent), in two contrasting Alaskan watersheds of Department of Defense (DoD) significance: the Little Chena River Basin (LCRB) in interior Alaska, a tributary of the Chena River that flows through Fort Wainwright and near Eielson Air Force Base, and the Upper Ship Creek Basin (USCB), which drains Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson near Anchorage. Using long-term SNOTEL observations and event-based rainfall-runoff modeling, NG-IDF and PREC-IDF flood estimates were compared against observation-based flood frequency analyses. Results show that NG-IDF consistently reduces flood-estimation bias by 15–20% relative to PREC-IDF, particularly for snowmelt- and ROS-dominated events. In the interior LCRB, permafrost conditions can substantially amplify flood responses during snowmelt events, an effect not explicitly represented in standard design tools. These findings demonstrate that NG-IDF provides a more physically consistent and transferable framework for flood estimation in cold regions, with potential relevance to mission-critical DoD installation resilience. Projected increases in ROS frequency and permafrost degradation across Alaska further emphasize the need to integrate physics-based hydrologic models that explicitly represent snow and permafrost processes to enhance design resilience and operational readiness for military and other critical infrastructure.

Yan, Hongxiang (ORCID:000000022387403X)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Pushing the limits of pulse shape discrimination in a large liquid xenon detector

Abstract The LUX-ZEPLIN (LZ) experiment is a direct-detection dark matter experiment, optimized to search for weakly interacting massive particles (WIMPs) through WIMP-nucleon interactions. The main challenge in dark matter detection is differentiating between WIMP signals and background events. In LZ, the ratio of ionization to scintillation signals (charge-to-light) is the primary method for rejecting electronic recoil (ER) background. Pulse shape discrimination (PSD) offers a method for additional ER backgrounds rejection in liquid xenon detectors. In this paper, the discrimination power of PSD with the LZ experiment is discussed. To precisely characterize the scintillation pulse shape, an analysis framework is developed to reconstruct the detection time of individual photons. Using LZ calibration data, the photon-timing tail fraction discriminator is optimized and achieves ER leakage as low as $$15\%$$ 15 % . For specific background processes such as $$^{124}$$ 124 Xe double electron capture, the leakage is reduced further to about $$5\%$$ 5 % . PSD is combined with charge-to-light to form two-factor discrimination (TFD). The optimized TFD performance is compared with the performance of the charge-to-light method, with the corresponding false positive rate reduced by up to a factor of two for large scintillation pulses. Finally, PSD and TFD are applied to data from LZ’s WS2024 run and their performance is summarized.

Akerib, D. S. [SLAC National Accelerator Laborator↗
DOE OSTI2026

How to Build an Empirical Speed Distribution for Dark Matter in the Solar Neighborhood

The dark matter flux in a direct detection experiment depends on its local speed distribution. This distribution has been inferred from simulations of Milky Way–like galaxies, but such models serve only as proxies, given that no simulation directly captures the detailed evolution of our own Galaxy. This motivates alternative approaches that obtain this distribution directly from observations. In this work, we utilize 98 Milky Way analogues from the TNG50 simulation to develop and validate a procedure for inferring the dark matter speed distribution using the kinematics of nearby stars. We find that the dark matter that originated from old mergers, plus that from recent nonluminous accretions, is well described by a Maxwell–Boltzmann speed distribution centered at the local standard-of-rest velocity. Meanwhile, recently accreted dark matter from massive mergers has speeds that can be traced from the associated stellar debris of these events. The stellar populations systematically underestimate the velocity dispersion of their dark matter counterparts, but a simple kinematic boost brings the two into good alignment. Using the TNG50 host galaxies, we demonstrate that combining these two contributions provides an accurate reconstruction of the local dark matter speeds. As an application of the procedure to our own Galaxy, we utilize stellar kinematic data from Gaia to quantify how the dark matter remnants from the Milky Way’s last major merger impact its speed distribution in the solar neighborhood.

Shpigel, Tal [Princeton Univ., NJ (United States)]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Detecting flash drought events to inform adaptive water management

Abstract: Flash droughts are characterized by a rapid onset of drought conditions, a common feature among various indicators of these events. The lack of a standardized definition and indicator makes flash droughts particularly challenging to predict and manage. We test six state-of-the-art flash drought indicators using 41 years of daily data across all Hydrological Unit Code 4 (HUC4) regions in the contiguous United States. Our results show substantial disagreements among indicators, suggesting that the detection of a flash drought event strongly depends on the choice of indicator. From the perspective of informing management and operations, an open challenge remains: which flash drought indicator should be used to trigger operational adaptations? To this end, we propose a methodological framework that informs adaptive actions by regionally assessing the level of agreement between different indicators. The regional differences in hydroclimatic conditions are expected to be reflected in the level of agreement between indicators. To better inform adaptive actions, the framework will also consider the impacted sectoral water uses and their varying response times. The insights gained from this study improve the understanding of how these different flash drought indicators capture the different aspects of regional differences and impacted sectors. Furthermore, this information can support more targeted adaptive actions to mitigate adverse impacts through improved preparedness and response strategies.

climate resilience↗