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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

BeyondPlanck: XII. Cosmological parameter constraints with end-to-end error propagation

We present cosmological parameter constraints estimated using the Bayesian BEYONDPLANCK analysis framework. This method supports seamless end-to-end error propagation from raw time-ordered data onto final cosmological parameters. As a first demonstration of the method, we analyzed time-ordered Planck LFI observations, combined with selected external data (WMAP 33–61 GHz, Planck HFI DR4 353 and 857 GHz, and Haslam 408 MHz) in the form of pixelized maps that are used to break critical astrophysical degeneracies. Overall, all the results are generally in good agreement with previously reported values from Planck 2018 and WMAP, with the largest relative difference for any parameter amounting about 1σ when considering only temperature multipoles between 30 ≤ ℓ ≤ 600. In cases where there are differences, we note that the BEYONDPLANCK results are generally slightly closer to the high-ℓ HFI-dominated Planck 2018 results than previous analyses, suggesting slightly less tension between low and high multipoles. Using low-ℓ polarization information from LFI and WMAP, we find a best-fit value of τ = 0.066 ± 0.013, which is higher than the low value of τ = 0.052 ± 0.008 derived from Planck 2018 and slightly lower than the value of 0.069 ± 0.011 derived from the joint analysis of official LFI and WMAP products. Most importantly, however, we find that the uncertainty derived in the BEYONDPLANCK processing is about 30 % greater than when analyzing the official products, after taking into account the different sky coverage. We argue that this uncertainty is due to a marginalization over a more complete model of instrumental and astrophysical parameters, which results in more reliable and more rigorously defined uncertainties. We find that about 2000 Monte Carlo samples are required to achieve a robust convergence for a low-resolution cosmic microwave background (CMB) covariance matrix with 225 independent modes, and producing these samples takes about eight weeks on a modest computing cluster with 256 cores.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations -- the Northern Study Area

This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the individual wind plant and at the system-wide aggregate level over the one year study period showed that the research weather model-based power forecasts (all types) had lower overall error rates than the current operational weather model-based power forecasts, both at the individual wind plant level and at the system aggregate level. The bulk error statistics of the various model-based power forecasts were also calculated by season and model runtime/forecast hour as power system operations are more sensitive to wind energy forecast errors during certain times of year and certain times of day. The results showed that there were significant differences in seasonal forecast errors between the various model-based power forecasts. The results from the analysis of the various wind power forecast errors by model runtime and forecast hour showed that the forecast errors were largest during the times of day that have increased significance to power system operators (the overnight hours and the morning/evening boundary layer transition periods), but the research weather model-based power forecasts showed improvement over the operational weather model-based power forecasts at these times.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2014

Low-Cost Spectral Sensor Development Description

Solar spectral data for all parts of the US is limited due in part to the high cost of commercial spectrometers. Solar spectral information is necessary for accurate photovoltaic (PV) performance forecasting, especially for large utility-scale PV installations. A low-cost solar spectral sensor would address the obstacles and needs. In this report, a novel low-cost, discrete-band sensor device, comprised of five narrow-band sensors, is described. The hardware is comprised of commercial-off-the-shelf components to keep the cost low. Data processing algorithms were developed and are being refined for robustness. PV module short-circuit current ($I_{sc}$) prediction methods were developed based on interaction-terms regression methodology and spectrum reconstruction methodology for computing $I_{sc}$. The results suggest the computed spectrum using the reconstruction method agreed well with the measured spectrum from the wide-band spectrometer (RMS error of 38.2 W/m 2 -nm). Further analysis of computed $I_{sc}$ found a close correspondence of 0.05 A RMS error. The goal is for ubiquitous adoption of the low-cost spectral sensor in solar PV and other applications such as weather forecasting.

Armijo, Kenneth Miguel↗
DOE OSTI2019

Sub-divertor fuel isotopic content detection limit for JET and its impact on ICRF core heating and DTE2 operation

The ability to detect and control fuel isotopic content down to a 1% concentration level is greatly important for the upcoming JET DTE2 campaign, as well as its associated TT and DD phases. A reduction of H minority concentration even from 2% down to 1% is shown in this paper to have significant impact on the effectiveness of ion cyclotron range of frequencies core heating, while the ability to maintain T or D concentration at or below 1% is critical to limiting fusion neutron generation in the DD and TT phases, correspondingly. The sub-divertor measurement of (global) isotopic concentration, based on Penning-activated optical spectroscopy, can deliver minimally this 1% detection for DTE2 as long as light collection from the Penning emission can be optimized and gradual window transmission deterioration can be minimized. Here, this is simulated with a statistical analysis developed to understand the uncertainty sources in the JET DTE1 data, as well as to guide the optimization of an upgraded, fuel-isotopic content (and helium-ash concentration) gas analysis system for the JET divertor in preparation for DTE2. While this random error can be reduced to allow measurement substantially below 1% concentration, analysis also shows a systematic error of up to 1% understood to be due to plasma–surface interactions in the Penning excitation, suggesting that 1% may still be the low-end limit for the sub-divertor measurement, unless a Penning-source conditioning approach is also developed.

fusion fuel isotopic content↗
DOE OSTI2023

Spatiotemporally Adaptive Compression for Scientific Dataset with Feature Preservation – A Case Study on Simulation Data with Extreme Climate Events Analysis

Scientific discoveries are increasingly constrained by limited storage space and I/O capacities. For time-series simulations and experiments, their data often need to be decimated over timesteps to accommodate storage and I/O limitations. In this paper, we propose a technique that addresses storage costs while improving post-analysis accuracy through spatiotemporal adaptive, error-controlled lossy compression. We investigate the trade-off between data precision and temporal output rates, revealing that reducing data precision and increasing timestep frequency lead to more accurate analysis outcomes. Additionally, we integrate spatiotemporal feature detection with data compression and demonstrate that performing adaptive error-bounded compression in higher dimensional space enables greater compression ratios, leveraging the error propagation theory of a transformation-based compressor. To evaluate our approach, we conduct experiments using the well-known E3SM climate simulation code and apply our method to compress variables used for cyclone tracking. Our results show a significant reduction in storage size while enhancing the quality of cyclone tracking analysis, both quantitatively and qualitatively, in comparison to the prevalent timestep decimation approach. Compared to three state-of-the-art lossy compressors lacking feature preservation capabilities, our adaptive compression framework improves perfectly matched cases in TC tracking by 26.4-51.3% at medium compression ratios and by 77.3-571.1% at large compression ratios, with a merely 5–11% computational overhead.

Gong, Qian↗
DOE OSTI2013

Approaching the complete-basis limit with a truncated many-body expansion

High-accuracy electronic structure calculations with correlated wave functions demand the use of large basis sets and complete-basis extrapolation, but the accuracy of fragment-based quantum chemistry methods has most often been evaluated using double-ζ basis sets, with errors evaluated relative to a supersystem calculation using the same basis set. Here, we examine the convergence towards the basis-set limit of two- and three-body expansions of the energy, for water clusters and ion–water clusters, focusing on calculations at the level of second-order Møller-Plesset perturbation theory (MP2). Several different corrections for basis-set superposition error (BSSE), each consistent with a truncated many-body expansion, are examined as well. We present a careful analysis of how the interplay of errors (from all sources) influences the accuracy of the results. We conclude that fragment-based methods often benefit from error cancellation wherein BSSE offsets both incompleteness of the basis set as well as higher-order many-body effects that are neglected in a truncated many-body expansion. An n-body counterpoise correction facilitates smooth extrapolation to the MP2 basis-set limit, and at n = 3 affords accurate results while requiring calculations in subsystems no larger than trimers.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

TDCOSMO. I. An exploration of systematic uncertainties in the inference of $H_0$ from time-delay cosmography

Time-delay cosmography of lensed quasars has achieved 2.4% precision on the measurement of the Hubble constant, H0. As part of an ongoing effort to uncover and control systematic uncertainties, we investigate three potential sources: 1- stellar kinematics, 2- line-of-sight effects, and 3- the deflector mass model. To meet this goal in a quantitative way, we reproduced the H0LiCOW/SHARP/STRIDES (hereafter TDCOSMO) procedures on a set of real and simulated data, and we find the following. First, stellar kinematics cannot be a dominant source of error or bias since we find that a systematic change of 10% of measured velocity dispersion leads to only a 0.7% shift on H0 from the seven lenses analyzed by TDCOSMO. Second, we find no bias to arise from incorrect estimation of the line-of-sight effects. Third, we show that elliptical composite (stars + dark matter halo), power-law, and cored power-law mass profiles have the flexibility to yield a broad range in H0 values. However, the TDCOSMO procedures that model the data with both composite and power-law mass profiles are informative. If the models agree, as we observe in real systems owing to the “bulge-halo” conspiracy, H0 is recovered precisely and accurately by both models. If the two models disagree, as in the case of some pathological models illustrated here, the TDCOSMO procedure either discriminates between them through the goodness of fit, or it accounts for the discrepancy in the final error bars provided by the analysis. This conclusion is consistent with a reanalysis of six of the TDCOSMO (real) lenses: the composite model yields H0 = 74.0−1.8+1.7 km s−1 Mpc−1, while the power-law model yields 74.2−1.6+1.6 km s−1 Mpc−1. In conclusion, we find no evidence of bias or errors larger than the current statistical uncertainties reported by TDCOSMO.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Error field predictability and consequences for ITER

Abstract ITER coil tolerances are re-evaluated using the modern understanding of coupling to least-stable plasma modes and an updated center-line-traced model of ITER’s coil windings. This reassessment finds the tolerances to be conservative through a statistical, linear study of n = 1 error fields (EFs) due to tilted, shifted misplacements and nominal windings of central solenoid and poloidal field coils within tolerance. We also show that a model-based correction scheme remains effective even when metrology quality is sub-optimal, and compare this to projected empirical correction schemes. We begin with an analysis of the necessity of error field correction (EFC) for daily operation in ITER using scalign laws for the EF penetration threshold. We then consider the predictability of EF dominant mode overlap across early planned ITER scenarios and, as measuring EFs in high power scenarios can pose risks to the device, the potential for extrapolation to the ITER Baseline Scenario (IBS). We find that carefully designing a scenario matching currents proportionally to those of the IBS is far more important than plasma shape or profiles in accurately measuring an optimal correction current set.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Efficient evaluation of small failure probability in high-dimensional groundwater contaminant transport modeling via a two-stage Monte Carlo method

In decision-making for groundwater management and contamination remediation, it is important to accurately evaluate the probability of the occurrence of a failure event. For small failure probability analysis, a large number of model evaluations are needed in the Monte Carlo (MC) simulation, which is impractical for CPU-demanding models. One approach to alleviate the computational cost caused by the model evaluations is to construct a computationally inexpensive surrogate model instead. However, using a surrogate approximation can cause an extra error in the failure probability analysis. Furthermore, constructing accurate surrogates is challenging for high-dimensional models, i.e., models containing many uncertain input parameters. To address these issues, we propose an efficient two-stage MC approach for small failure probability analysis in high-dimensional groundwater contaminant transport modeling. In the first stage, a low-dimensional representation of the original high-dimensional model is sought with Karhunen–Loève expansion and sliced inverse regression jointly, which allows for the easy construction of a surrogate with polynomial chaos expansion. Then a surrogate-based MC simulation is implemented. In the second stage, the small number of samples that are close to the failure boundary are re-evaluated with the original model, which corrects the bias introduced by the surrogate approximation. The proposed approach is tested with a numerical case study and is shown to be 100 times faster than the traditional MC approach in achieving the same level of estimation accuracy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Approach to Dependence Assessment in Human Reliability Analysis: Application of Lag and Linger Effects

Dependence assessment refers to an approach used in human reliability analysis (HRA) to adjust a human error probability (HEP) for the following action by considering the impact of the preceding action. It has been known to significantly affect the overall results of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). If the dependence assessment is not adequate, the result could be unconvincing for explaining the operator failures in the context of PSA. To date, several methods and some recent research have identified suggestions for treating dependence issues in HRA; however, these are still exclusively based on the intrinsic approach of the Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction (THERP), an HRA method. THERP inevitably has a challenge with the subjectivity of expert evaluation as well as the requirement for PSA and HRA expertise with resource-intensive and time-consuming processes. This paper suggests an approach to dependence assessment that could not only minimize the influence of expert judgment, but also saves time to perform the analysis with reasonable manpower. It modifies existing HRA methods with considering lag and linger effects to apply dependence effects for them. Based on a representative HRA method, i.e., Standardized Plant Analysis Risk - HRA (SPAR-H), guidance for how to apply lag and linger effects for the HRA method is suggested. Then, an investigation is carried out to compare quantification results of the revised HRA method with that of the original approach based on experimental data.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Scalable, In-situ Data Clustering Data Analysis for Extreme Scale Scientific Computing (Final Report)

The objective of this project is to address challenges in the design and development of scalable in-situ data clustering and analytics algorithms and software. Our goal is to develop parallel software consisting of a set of spatio-temporal data clustering and anomaly detection functions, both of which are very important for large-scale analysis and have wide applicability for in-situ runs as well as post-processing analysis. Our design principles for in-situ analysis consider the following: (1) identify parts of the computation can be done close to the data within the nodes, while it is still in memory; (2) extract analysis components can (and should) be performed in remote staging and analysis nodes; (3) develop error-bound approximation methods for applications tolerable for small errors; (4) identify the type of derived distributions and statistics, for spatio-temporal data, that can be kept locally in order to both accelerate computations and meet energy constraints in subsequent iterations and phases; (5) use a self-describing data format so that data can be consistent and understood among local storage (memory and SSDs) and at staging and analysis nodes, thereby providing portability and flexibility; (6) develop service-oriented functions that can schedule in-situ and post-hoc analysis tasks based on the dynamic requirements of applications. Our development focus is to produce the parallel data analysis software/library that will be scalable, reusable, extensible, and generic for applications in different disciplines. The software will be able to run in-situ with the simulations as well as post-hoc analysis. This approach will satisfy many synergistic requirements for data intensive applications executed on data coming from instruments and experiments. In particular, the proposed multilevel approach is directly applicable to perform design tradeoffs for running part of the algorithms near the instruments and the rest on remote (analysis) systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2016

THE MAGELLAN PFS PLANET SEARCH PROGRAM: RADIAL VELOCITY AND STELLAR ABUNDANCE ANALYSES OF THE 360 au, METAL-POOR BINARY “TWINS” HD 133131A and B

We present a new precision radial velocity (RV) data set that reveals multiple planets orbiting the stars in the ~360 au, G2+G2 “twin” binary HD 133131AB. Our six years of high-resolution echelle observations from MIKE and five years from the Planet Finder Spectrograph (PFS) on the Magellan telescopes indicate the presence of two eccentric planets around HD 133131A with minimum masses of 1.43 ± 0.03 and 0.63 ± 0.15 M{sub J} at 1.44 ± 0.005 and 4.79 ± 0.92 au, respectively. Additional PFS observations of HD 133131B spanning five years indicate the presence of one eccentric planet of minimum mass 2.50 ± 0.05 M{sub J} at 6.40 ± 0.59 au, making it one of the longest-period planets detected with RV to date. These planets are the first to be reported primarily based on data taken with the PFS on Magellan, demonstrating the instrument’s precision and the advantage of long-baseline RV observations. We perform a differential analysis between the Sun and each star, and between the stars themselves, to derive stellar parameters and measure a suite of 21 abundances across a wide range of condensation temperatures. The host stars are old (likely ~9.5 Gyr) and metal-poor ([Fe/H] ~ -0.30), and we detect a ~0.03 dex depletion in refractory elements in HD 133131A versus B (with standard errors ~0.017). This detection and analysis adds to a small but growing sample of binary “twin” exoplanet host stars with precise abundances measured, and represents the most metal-poor and likely oldest in that sample. Overall, the planets around HD 133131A and B fall in an unexpected regime in planet mass–host star metallicity space and will serve as an important benchmark for the study of long-period giant planets.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

HAPPA: A Modular Platform for HPC Application Resilience Analysis with LLMs Embedded

High-performance computing (HPC) systems are increasingly vulnerable to soft errors, which pose significant challenges in maintaining computational accuracy and reliability. Predicting the resilience of HPC applications to these errors is crucial for robust code protection and detailed resilience analysis. In this study, we present HAppA, a modular platform designed for HPC Application Resilience Analysis. Embedding Large Language Models (LLMs), HAppA addresses understanding the context information of long code sequences typical in HPC applications. HAppA implements a novel code representation module that chunks the code into fixed-size segments and aggregates the embeddings of these segments. Three aggregation methods have been explored: MeanPooling, MaxPooling, and LSTM-based techniques. We built a DAtaset for REsilience analysis using Fault Injection (FI), named DARE. Using our DARE dataset, HAppA is trained for regression prediction tasks. Our evaluation results demonstrate the predictive accuracy of HAppA compared to other models, particularly noting that the LSTM-based aggregation method -- HAppA-LSTM -- achieves a mean squared error (MSE) of 0.078 for SDC prediction, surpassing the existing state-of-the-art PARIS model, which recorded an MSE of 0.1172. Additionally, HAppA with the KeyBERT model extracts a list of keywords representing the source code. A comprehensive importance analysis of these keywords further elucidates the code patterns contributing to the error rate. These findings highlight the effectiveness of HAppA in analyzing the resilience of HPC applications and establish a new benchmark for predictive accuracy in resilience.

Jiang, Hailong [Kent State University]↗
DOE OSTI2017

RCT: Module 2.03, Counting Errors and Statistics, Course 8768

Radiological sample analysis involves the observation of a random process that may or may not occur and an estimation of the amount of radioactive material present based on that observation. Across the country, radiological control personnel are using the activity measurements to make decisions that may affect the health and safety of workers at those facilities and their surrounding environments. This course will present an overview of measurement processes, a statistical evaluation of both measurements and equipment performance, and some actions to take to minimize the sources of error in count room operations. This course will prepare the student with the skills necessary for radiological control technician (RCT) qualification by passing quizzes, tests, and the RCT Comprehensive Phase 1, Unit 2 Examination (TEST 27566) and by providing in the field skills.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2015

WE-D-BRA-07: Analysis of ArcCHECK Diode Array Performance for ViewRay Quality Assurance

Purpose: Discrepancies in absolute dose values have been detected between the ViewRay treatment planning system and ArcCHECK readings when performing delivery quality assurance on the ViewRay system with the ArcCHECK-MR diode array (SunNuclear Corporation). In this work, we investigate whether these discrepancies are due to errors in the ViewRay planning and/or delivery system or due to errors in the ArcCHECK’s readings. Methods: Gamma analysis was performed on 19 ViewRay patient plans using the ArcCHECK. Frequency analysis on the dose differences was performed. To investigate whether discrepancies were due to measurement or delivery error, 10 diodes in low-gradient dose regions were chosen to compare with ion chamber measurements in a PMMA phantom with the same size and shape as the ArcCHECK, provided by SunNuclear. The diodes chosen all had significant discrepancies in absolute dose values compared to the ViewRay TPS. Absolute doses to PMMA were compared between the ViewRay TPS calculations, ArcCHECK measurements, and measurements in the PMMA phantom. Results: Three of the 19 patient plans had 3%/3mm gamma passing rates less than 95%, and ten of the 19 plans had 2%/2mm passing rates less than 95%. Frequency analysis implied a non-random error process. Out of the 10 diode locations measured, ion chamber measurements were all within 2.2% error relative to the TPS and had a mean error of 1.2%. ArcCHECK measurements ranged from 4.5% to over 15% error relative to the TPS and had a mean error of 8.0%. Conclusion: The ArcCHECK performs well for quality assurance on the ViewRay under most circumstances. However, under certain conditions the absolute dose readings are significantly higher compared to the planned doses. As the ion chamber measurements consistently agree with the TPS, it can be concluded that the discrepancies are due to ArcCHECK measurement error and not TPS or delivery system error. This work was funded by the Bhudatt Paliwal Professorship and the University of Wisconsin Medical Radiation Research Center.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Computer-aided design of stability enhanced nicotinamide cofactor biomimetics for cell-free biocatalysis

Cell-free biocatalysis (CFB) is an efficient and environmentally friendly method to synthesize molecules such as pharmaceuticals, biochemicals, and biofuels through the in vitro use of enzyme cascades. These enzymes often require redox cofactors to drive chemical reactions. Natural redox cofactors (NAD(P)H) are expensive to isolate, motivating synthetic nicotinamide cofactor biomimetics (NCBs) as a cost-effective solution. A select handful of NCBs have been identified as potential NAD(P)H alternatives with comparable or improved redox capabilities, however, they display a tendency to degrade in common buffers. In this study, a library of 132 NCB candidates is systematically generated, over 85% of which have not been characterized in the literature, to expand the diversity of currently explored NCBs. The decomposition mechanism of NCBs in phosphate is evaluated using density functional theory (DFT), revealing protonation at the nicotinamide C5 position as a reporter of cofactor stability. Based on this result, we trained a linear regression model on DFT calculated descriptors to predict NCB stability in phosphate buffer, achieving mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean squared error (RMSE) values within computational accuracy. Analysis of key atomic descriptors and qualitative trends in our dataset informed the design of novel NCB candidates we propose with optimized stability. This work enables researchers to predict the relative stability of NCBs before synthesis, thereby streamlining the process to make CFB more affordable and viable at industry scales.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2017

Determination of a Generic Human Error Probability Distribution, Part 1: A Dynamic Formulation of SPAR-H

In almost all major nuclear power plants (NPP) events include a significant human error component. As an example, in Fukushima Daiichi (2011) nuclear meltdown, the human actions related to the high-pressure injection cooling strongly affected accident evolution. Furthermore, in the Three Mile Island accident (1979) (which was initiated by a stuck open valve and thus was triggered a loss of coolant accident) the unit operators made decisions based upon false assumptions that contributed negatively to the accident. Given these premises, the ability to accurately model human interactions with plant evolution and, in particular, dynamically calculate human error probability (HEP) plays a major role in a probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). Human reliability analysis (HRA) identifies and models the causes of human errors, and quantifies HEP by applying different methodologies. HRA methods identify errors and reflect on the understanding of error-prone people and systems. There are a number of HRA methods available that assist in identifying the vulnerabilities in the system and provide guidance in determining the HEP. HEP is the probability of a human failure event (HFE), and quantification of HEPs under various situations is utilized in PRA of large complex systems. One of the more prominent HRA methods is the Standardized Plant Analysis Risk-Human Reliability Analysis (SPAR-H) method that was developed to estimate HEPs for the use in the Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) PRA models employed in U.S. NPPs. SPAR-H is implemented in U.S. NPPs by regulators at the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to determine the HEP based on expert estimation through the use of calculation worksheets. In SPAR-H, the nominal HEPs (NHEPs) are multiplied by performance shaping factors (PSF) multiplier values to obtain the overall error probability. PSFs encompass the human components, individual characteristics, their environment, and aspects of the task. With PSFs, the goal is to capture all factors that can affect human performance. In SPAR-H there are eight PSFs used, each having respective levels corresponding to multipliers: Available Time, Stress/Stressors, Complexity, Experience/Training, Procedures, Ergonomics/Human Machine Interface, Fitness for Duty, and Work Processes. The PSF multipliers indicate enhanced, nominal, or degraded human performance. The SPAR-H method estimates the HEP through multiplying a NHEP with PSFs. Hence, SPAR-H is a traditional HRA method that assesses human performance at a fixed, or static, point in time. In a dynamic HRA framework, human performance is assessed on a continuous time basis. SPAR-H can be used within a dynamic PRA framework through the use of simulation and stochastic models. The goal of dynamic HRA is to build a more realistic model of the human-system interaction to enhance calculation of reliability, risk and safety analysis. The progression of events in dynamic SPAR-H considers that some PSFs may experience gradual change, while other change can be sudden due to individualistic differences or rapid plant status changes. The PSF changes are caused by contextual changes in the scenario. For example, as more time passes, the realization that a task should be completed sooner may cause the operator more stress. In another example, a sudden relay of information about sickness of a family member may alter the operator's general stress level and fitness for duty. Each PSF has a different dynamic nature; PSFs like stress and complexity change more quickly over the course of a task than experience and training. While the experience of an operator changes over the course of attaining the objective, the amount that this added experience changes the HEP is very minimal. In contrast, the stress, complexity, and procedures PSFs may change quite a bit over the course of task completion.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying Error in Photovoltaic Installation Metadata: Preprint

In this research, we quantify the level of metadata error for a fleet of 2860 photovoltaic (PV) systems, using metadata values provided by fleet owners. Using satellite imagery and time series analysis techniques available in open-source Python packages Panel-Segmentation and PVAnalytics, respectively, we evaluate the accuracy of PV system metadata such as location, azimuth, tilt, and mounting configuration (fixed tilt vs. tracking). We find that approximately 75% of provided latitude-longitude coordinates are within 190 meters of the actual solar installation. We were unable to link 7.8% of latitude-longitude coordinates to any solar installation via satellite imagery analysis. We evaluate the level of error in owner-provided mounting configuration (fixed tilt vs. single-axis tracking), finding only 8 systems with an incorrect mounting configuration. When evaluating azimuth and tilt parameters, we find that approximately 64% of the data is correct, with data for 860 systems (approximately 30%) not provided by system owners. To illustrate the importance of having correct solar metadata, we evaluate how incorrect metadata affects solar performance estimates by modeling system AC energy output at ground-truth vs. incorrect latitude-longitude coordinates, mounting configurations, and azimuth-tilt configurations. Energy output estimates can vary significantly if incorrect metadata parameters are used, with incorrect mounting configuration leading to the largest discrepancy with over 20% variation in expected energy output.

azimuth↗