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At least 667 records · Page 37

An Overview of Materials Structures for Extreme Environments Efforts for 2015 SBIR Phases I and II

Technological innovation is the overall focus of NASA's Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) program. The program invests in the development of innovative concepts and technologies to help NASA's mission directorates address critical research and development needs for Agency projects. This report highlights innovative SBIR 2015 Phase I and II projects that specifically address areas in Materials and Structures for Extreme Environments, one of six core competencies at NASA Glenn Research Center. Each article describes an innovation, defines its technical objective, and highlights NASA applications as well as commercial and industrial applications. Ten technologies are featured: metamaterials-inspired aerospace structures, metallic joining to advanced ceramic composites, multifunctional polyolefin matrix composite structures, integrated reacting fluid dynamics and predictive materials degradation models for propulsion system conditions, lightweight inflatable structural airlock (LISA), copolymer materials for fused deposition modeling 3-D printing of nonstandard plastics, Type II strained layer superlattice materials development for space-based focal plane array applications, hydrogenous polymer-regolith composites for radiation-shielding materials, a ceramic matrix composite environmental barrier coating durability model, and advanced composite truss printing for large solar array structures. This report serves as an opportunity for NASA engineers, researchers, program managers, and other personnel to learn about innovations in this technology area as well as possibilities for collaboration with innovative small businesses that could benefit NASA programs and projects.

integrated reacting fluid dynamics and predictive ↗

Optimization for Bioenergy Systems

The Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Grand Challenge (Langholtz, 2024 ) seeks to generate 35 billion gallons of SAF each year by 2050, with corn stover, an agricultural byproduct, playing a key role as a feedstock. This study develops an optimization framework to enhance the quality and quantity of corn stover while ensuring economic and environmental viability. Using the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) crop model, we simulate the effects of cover crops on rotation yield, soil moisture balance, and nitrogen cycling across diverse climates and soils. The model outputs, including yield data and soil quality changes, inform a Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) optimization model. This model aims to maximize economic and environmental returns by incorporating production costs, direct and indirect income, and environmental incentives. The optimization model evaluates 280 agriculture management plans composed of various crop management strategies, including corn stover removal rates, cover crop adoption, and fertilization practices. It seeks to identify the optimal combination of crop and tillage decisions for each subfield, maximizing profits while enhancing soil carbon sequestration and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Outputs include detailed subfield locations, optimal management plans, and profits per hectare and per acre, allowing for comparison with literature values on farm profits. This study provides a robust optimization framework supporting the SAF Grand Challenge by proposing economically viable and environmentally sustainable strategies for corn stover utilization. The findings highlight corn stover's potential as a sustainable feedstock for SAF production, offering practical solutions to enhance its quality and quantity while maintaining soil health. Idaho is used as a case study to demonstrate the framework's applicability and effectiveness in real-world scenarios. Langholtz, M. H., Davis, M., Hellwinckel, C., De La Torre Ugarte, D., Efroymson, R., Jacobson, R., Milbrandt, A., Coleman, A., Davis, R., Kline, K. L., Badgett, A., Curran, S., Schmidt, E., Theiss, T., Fried, J., English, B., Lambert, L., Cook, H., Field, J., ... Walker, L. (2024). 2023 Billion-Ton Report: An Assessment of U.S. Renewable Carbon Resources. https://doi.org/10.2172/2441098 DSSAT Foundation. (2025). Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT). Retrieved from https://dssat.net/

09 - BIOMASS FUELS↗

Provisioning in Agricultural Communities: Local, Regional and Global Cereal Prices and Local Production on Three Continents

Monitoring and incorporating diverse market and staple food information into food price indices is critical for food price analyses. Satellite remote sensing data and earth science models have an important role to play in improving humanitarian aid timing, delivery and distribution. Incorporating environmental observations into econometric models will improve food security analysis and understanding of market functioning.

Brown, Molly E.↗

Use of Machine Learning Techniques for Iidentification of Robust Teleconnections to East African Rainfall Variability in Observations and Models

Providing advance warning of East African rainfall variations is a particular focus of several groups including those participating in the Famine Early Warming Systems Network. Both seasonal and long-term model projections of climate variability are being used to examine the societal impacts of hydrometeorological variability on seasonal to interannual and longer time scales. The NASA / USAID SERVIR project, which leverages satellite and modeling-based resources for environmental decision making in developing nations, is focusing on the evaluation of both seasonal and climate model projections to develop downscaled scenarios for using in impact modeling. The utility of these projections is reliant on the ability of current models to capture the embedded relationships between East African rainfall and evolving forcing within the coupled ocean-atmosphere-land climate system. Previous studies have posited relationships between variations in El Niño, the Walker circulation, Pacific decadal variability (PDV), and anthropogenic forcing. This study applies machine learning methods (e.g. clustering, probabilistic graphical model, nonlinear PCA) to observational datasets in an attempt to expose the importance of local and remote forcing mechanisms of East African rainfall variability. The ability of the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS5) coupled model to capture the associated relationships will be evaluated using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations.

Roberts, J. Brent↗

Sensitivity Analysis of Sediment Coagulations in the Chesapeake Bay

Hydrodynamic models are utilized for fast response to environmental hazards. However, limitations within the models may inhibit their accuracy. A three-dimensional aqueous transport model, ALGE, was developed at the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) as a tool for pollutant dispersion. Recently at SRNL, the capability to account for coagulation and break-up of particles to better account for the fate and transport of materials. A sensitivity analysis was performed to determine a threshold for specified particle parameters that still yield accurate results. Dictating these thresholds advances the development of ALGE to become a product for efficient emergency response.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Characterizing the multisectoral impacts of future global hydrologic variability

There is significant uncertainty in how global water supply will evolve in the future, due to uncertain climate, socioeconomic, and land use change drivers and variability of hydrologic processes. It is critical to characterize the potential impacts of uncertainty in future water supply given its importance for food and energy production. In this work, we introduce a framework that integrates stochastic hydrology and human-environmental systems to characterize uncertainty in future water supply and its multisector impacts. We develop a global stochastic watershed model and demonstrate that this model can generate a large ensemble of realizations of basin-scale runoff with global coverage that preserves the mean, variance, and spatial correlation of a historical benchmark. We couple this model with a well-known human-environmental systems model to explore the impacts of runoff variability on the water and agricultural sectors across spatial scales. We find that the impacts of future hydrologic variability vary across sectors and regions. Impacts are felt most strongly in the water and agricultural sectors for basins that are expected to have unsustainable water use in the future, such as the Indus River basin. For this basin, we find that the variability in future irrigation water withdrawals and irrigated cropland increase over time due to uncertainty in renewable water supply. We also use the Indus basin to show how our stochastic ensemble can be leveraged to explore the global multisector consequences of local extreme runoff conditions. This work introduces a novel technique to explore the propagation of future hydrologic variability across human and natural systems and spatial scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Bayesian nonparametric analysis for zero-inflated multivariate count data with application to microbiome study

High-throughput sequencing technology has enabled researchers to profile microbial communities from a variety of environments, but analysis of multivariate taxon count data remains challenging. Here, we develop a Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) regression model with zero inflation to analyse multivariate count data from microbiome studies. A BNP approach flexibly models microbial associations with covariates, such as environmental factors and clinical characteristics. The model produces estimates for probability distributions which relate microbial diversity and differential abundance to covariates, and facilitates community comparisons beyond those provided by simple statistical tests. We compare the model to simpler models and popular alternatives in simulation studies, showing, in addition to these additional community-level insights, it yields superior parameter estimates and model fit in various settings. The model's utility is demonstrated by applying it to a chronic wound microbiome data set and a Human Microbiome Project data set, where it is used to compare microbial communities present in different environments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Yonkers Urban Development: Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Identify Environmental and Social Drivers of Urban Heat Vulnerability and Model Urban Cooling Interventions in Yonkers, New York

The City of Yonkers, New York, is located directly north of the Bronx in Westchester County and currently hosts a population of nearly 200,000. In response to increasing hot-weather episodes, the risk of heat-related illnesses and mortality is disproportionately affecting neighborhoods in Yonkers historically subjected to race-based housing segregation. NASA DEVELOP collaborated with Groundwork Hudson Valley to determine regions within Yonkers that are experiencing the most intense urban heat island effects, identify and rank sociodemographic and environmental determinants of increasing community-level vulnerability, map these vulnerabilities as a combined vulnerability index, complete a proximity analysis of walkability to local cooling centers and health facility locations, and model potential cooling strategies. The study area consisted of Yonkers, NY and the analyses used data from 2015-2020 (June through August). The project utilized NASA Earth observation products including Landsat 4 and 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS), Terra Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER), and ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS). We assessed the benefits of different heat-mitigation scenarios by utilizing the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) urban cooling model. Results from these analyses can be used by Groundwork Hudson Valley, supporting the New York State’s Climate Safe Communities Certifiable Planning Actions, expanding knowledge on the relationship between historic redlining and environmental equity, and informing their Climate Safe Neighborhoods initiative to identify and prioritize mitigation efforts to abate the worst impacts of extreme heat.

Jillian Walechka↗

A Hybrid Biophysical‐Machine Learning Framework for Diurnal Surface Energy Flux Estimation Using Proximal Sensing

Thermal infrared-based remote sensing of surface energy fluxes has traditionally relied on high spatial resolution satellite data with revisit frequencies on the order of weeks. In this study, we evaluate a biophysics-based analytical surface energy balance model for predicting latent energy ( LE ) and sensible heat ( H ) fluxes using proximal sensing observations. The Surface Temperature Initiated Closure (STIC1.2) model has been extensively validated across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales using various satellite-derived thermal infrared data sets. Here we extend this validation by applying STIC at sub-hourly temporal resolution over multiple growing seasons for four distinct agricultural systems. We further develop and evaluate novel STIC variants that incorporate machine learning (ML) techniques to eliminate the need for surface energy balance observations, specifically net radiation and soil heat flux, thereby enhancing model applicability in data-sparse settings. The integration of a ML component to estimate surface available energy is shown to have strong predictive performance for both LE (R 2 = 0.81–0.94) and H (R 2 = 0.46–0.72) across all agricultural systems examined here, demonstrating the potential of hybrid biophysical-machine learning approaches for surface energy balance modeling with minimal data requirements. This study concludes with a novel application of explainable machine learning (exML) to diagnose sources of model error. This exML framework attributes residual prediction errors to both model input variables and environmental drivers not explicitly included in the simulation experiments. This approach provides a new pathway for improving model design and integrating previously overlooked yet influential variables into future model iterations.

evapotranspiration↗

Environmental design of low-head run-of-river hydropower in the United States: A review of facility design models

We state that the goal of run-of-river hydropower is to produce cost-competitive renewable electricity with minimal disruption of the natural riverine ecosystem. Modeling and feasibility analysis of alternative design options are crucial for developing new run-of-river hydropower projects. Our review shows that existing run-of-river hydropower design models focus on maximizing economic potential at high-head diversion schemes with limited consideration of environmental outcomes. Since nearly three-quarters of new hydropower potential in the United States is found at low-head sites and environmental performance standards are imperative to project success, new models are needed to address the multi-dimensional design challenges at these sites. To aid in formulating holistic models, we synthesize the performance objectives and design variables related to early-stage run-of-river facility design. The objectives span six potential impact areas, including hydrologic alteration, sediment continuity, water quality, aquatic species passage, social, and economic. Based on these reviews, we identify three key areas to enhance the capabilities of run-of-river hydropower design models. These are 1) expanded model formulations, 2) assessment of barrier effects, and 3) explicit environmental objectives. The resulting modeling improvements would accelerate the identification of run-of-river hydropower designs that minimize environmental impacts, promote economic competitiveness, and incorporate the value of non-power benefits.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

A modeling study of ocean thermal energy conversion resource and potential environmental effects around Kailua-Kona, Hawaii

Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) offers a promising renewable energy solution through a heat exchange process using the temperature difference between warm surface seawater and cold deep seawater. Because accurate resource characterization is critical for the optimal design and implementation of OTEC systems, a high-resolution numerical model is employed to better characterize the OTEC resource at Kona, Hawaii. Our model provides detailed spatial and temporal variability of the thermal gradient, which is essential for assessing the viability and efficiency of OTEC systems. The model results reveal distinct patterns and dynamics not captured by existing observations or models (e.g., lower-resolution information). These findings highlight the importance of using high-resolution models for accurate predictions of thermal gradient variability, ultimately supporting more efficient and sustainable OTEC deployment. Additionally, the study investigates the impacts of mixed water discharge from OTEC plants that can cause shock to organisms living in the surface water and potentially destabilize the water column. Understanding these effects is vital for minimizing any potential negative environmental consequences and ensuring the long-term viability of OTEC operations. Further, our model improves OTEC resource characterization, which can lead to optimal design and deployment of OTEC systems. The analysis of OTEC water discharge impacts can accelerate the development of OTEC technologies, overcoming permitting/consenting challenges. These findings contribute to the broader adoption of high-resolution modeling in ocean energy resource characterization, particularly for OTEC applications.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Plant roots stimulate the decomposition of complex, but not simple, soil carbon

Roots release carbon into soil and can alleviate energy limitation of microbial organic matter decomposition. We know little about the effects of roots on microbial decomposition of different organic matter substrates, despite the importance for soil carbon stocks and turnover. Through implementing root-microbe interactions, the Carbon, Organisms, Rhizosphere, and Protection in the Soil Environment (CORPSE) model was previously shown to represent dynamics of total soil carbon in temperate forest field experiments. However, the model permits alternative hypotheses concerning microbial-substrate affinity. We investigated how root inputs affect decomposition of soil organic carbon (SOC) with variable decomposability. We simulated SOC stocks in CORPSE and compared microbial degradation of two substrates types with varying root-microbe interactions under two alternative hypotheses that varied in microbial-substrate affinity. We compared our modeled hypotheses to a forest field experiment where we quantified decomposition of isotopically-labeled starch and leaf tissues in soils with manipulated root access to microbes. Here, we tested the hypothesis that decomposition of leaves would be more sensitive to root inputs than decomposition of starch, corresponding to the alternative model hypothesis. In the field study, leaf decomposition increased with root density while starch decomposition was unchanged by root density. Microbial biomass and enzyme activity consistently increased with root inputs in CORPSE and the field study. Our field experiment supported the CORPSE simulations with high microbial-substrate affinity. Roots stimulated microbial growth and enzyme production, which increased degradation of more complex substrates such as leaf tissues. Substrates that were easily decomposed, such as starch, may already be degrading at a maximum rate in the absence of rhizosphere influence because their decomposition rate was unchanged by root inputs. We found that the degree to which roots stimulate microbial decomposition depends on the substrate being decomposed, and that root-microbe interactions influenced SOC stocks in both our model and field experiment. Environmental changes that alter root-microbe interactions could, therefore, alter soil C stocks and biogeochemical cycling, and models of these interactions should incorporate differential influence of rhizosphere inputs on different substrates.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

An Enhanced Vertical Ground Heat Exchanger Model for Whole-Building Energy Simulation

This paper presents an enhanced vertical ground heat exchanger (GHE) model for whole-building energy simulation (WBES). WBES programs generally have computational constraints that affect the development and implementation of component simulation sub-models. WBES programs require models that execute quickly and efficiently due to how the programs are utilized by design engineers. WBES programs also require models to be formulated so their performance can be determined from boundary conditions set by upstream components and environmental conditions. The GHE model developed during this work utilizes an existing response factor model and extends its capabilities to accurately and robustly simulate at timesteps that are shorter than the GHE transit time. This was accomplished by developing a simplified dynamic borehole model and then exercising that model to generate exiting fluid temperature response factors. This approach blends numerical and analytical modeling methods. The existing response factor models are then extended to incorporate the exiting fluid temperature response factor to provide a better estimate of the GHE exiting fluid temperature at short simulation timesteps.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Simulation Studies of the Effect of Forest Spatial Structure on InSAR Signature

The height of scattering phase retrieved from InSAR data is considered being correlated with the tree height and the spatial structure of the forest stand. Though some researchers have used simple backscattering models to estimate tree height from the height of scattering center, the effect of forest spatial structure on InSAR data is not well understood yet. A three-dimensional coherent radar backscattering model for forest canopies based on realistic three-dimensional scene was used to investigate the effect in this paper. The realistic spatial structure of forest canopies was established either by field measurements (stem map) or through use of forest growth model. Field measurements or a forest growth model parameterized using local environmental parameters provides information of forest species composition and tree sizes in certain growth phases. A fractal tree model (L-system) was used to simulate individual 3- D tree structure of different ages or heights. Trees were positioned in a stand in certain patterns resulting in a 3-D medium of discrete scatterers. The radar coherent backscatter model took the 3-D forest scene as input and simulates the coherent radar backscattering signature. Interferometric SAR images of 3D scenes were simulated and heights of scattering phase centers were estimated from the simulated InSAR data. The effects of tree height, crown cover, crown depth, and the spatial distribution patterns of trees on the scattering phase center were analyzed. The results will be presented in the paper.

Sun, Guoqing↗

Electron Flux Models for Different Energies at Geostationary Orbit

Forecast models were derived for energetic electrons at all energy ranges sampled by the third-generation Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES). These models were based on Multi-Input Single-Output Nonlinear Autoregressive Moving Average with Exogenous inputs methodologies. The model inputs include the solar wind velocity, density and pressure, the fraction of time that the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was southward, the IMF contribution of a solar wind-magnetosphere coupling function proposed by Boynton et al. (2011b), and the Dst index. As such, this study has deduced five new 1 h resolution models for the low-energy electrons measured by GOES (30-50 keV, 50-100 keV, 100-200 keV, 200-350 keV, and 350-600 keV) and extended the existing >800 keV and >2 MeV Geostationary Earth Orbit electron fluxes models to forecast at a 1 h resolution. All of these models were shown to provide accurate forecasts, with prediction efficiencies ranging between 66.9% and 82.3%.

Boynton, R. J.↗

A physics-informed multi-agents model to predict thermo-oxidative/hydrolytic aging of elastomers

This paper introduces a novel physics-informed multi-agents constitutive model to propose prediction in quasi-static constitutive behavior of cross-linked elastomer and the loss of mechanical performance during environmental aging. The presented model is used to simulate the effect of single-mechanism chemical aging (i.e. thermal-inducedor hydrolytic aging) on the behavior of the material in this hybrid framework. Those environmental single-mechanism damages change the polymer matrix over time due to massive chain scission, chain formations, and changing the arrangement of molecules in the polymer matrix. Here we propose a data-driven super-constrained machine-learned engine to represent damage in the polymer matrix and capture the changes in material behavior, including its inelastic features such as Mullins effect and permanent set in the course of aging. We have simplified the 3D stress–strain tensor mapping problem into a small number of super-constrained 1D mapping problems by means of a sequential order reduction. An assembly of multiple replicated conditional neural-network learning-agents (L-agents) is trained to systematically simplify the high-dimensional mapping problem into multiple 1D problems, each represented by a different type of agent. Our hybrid framework is designed to capture the effect of deformation history, aging time, and aging temperature. The model is validated with respect to a comprehensive set of experiments specifically designed to benchmark model capabilities and also against available data in the literature. Thermodynamic consistency and frame independency have been verified. Besides acceptable predictive abilities, a significant reduction of computational cost to predict behavior at multiple states of deformation is the most significant feature of this model.

42 ENGINEERING↗