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At least 667 records · Page 37

Industrial battery operation and utilization in the presence of electrical load uncertainty using Bayesian decision theory

Behind the meter battery storage is becoming increasing popular in all sectors, though enthusiasm has recently lagged in the industrial sector. Even though there may be many factors contributing to this including lack of innovation, prohibitive costs, and undesirable rate structures, a difficulty arises in accounting for uncertainty of electrical load in industrial facilities while still attempting to utilize battery storage as much as possible all while trying to achieve fiscal profitability. Here this study utilizes Gaussian process regression and Bayesian decision theory to organize load data and quantify electrical load uncertainty to properly and effectively discharge industrial battery storage. The study employs a simulation model to set battery load setpoints for the span of the utility billing period according to the degree of risk aversion. This combination of economic analysis according to utility billing period and utilization of degree of risk aversion to make decisions on the uncertainty of the data has not before been applied to battery storage. The method resulted in an annual average reduction of peak demand by 3.8 % at the lowest amount of savings and lowest risk aversion. The highest risk aversion resulted in an annual average reduction of peak demand of 7.5 %. The maximum reduction of peak load in any month was 13.8 % in the month of December with a relatively high risk aversion. With a the highest amount risk aversion tested, the model reduced demand ten of the twelve months of the year.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Regional inertia dynamics of U.S. interconnections: An event-based measurement approach

Power grid inertia plays a vital role in frequency stability following large disturbances, yet its distribution across the U.S. grid is highly uneven. While interconnection-wide inertia benchmarks are useful, they can mask regional variability driven by resource mix, network coupling, and geographic separation. This paper extends event-driven inertia estimation to the regional scale using field measurements from the Frequency Monitoring Network (FNET/GridEye). Starting from balancing authority and independent system operator footprints, candidate regions are refined using a composite coherency score that combines frequency-trajectory shape similarity, timing spread, and lead/lag behavior to ensure dynamic consistency. A filtered sliding difference method (FSDM) is then used to construct regional frequency trajectories, detect disturbance onset, and compute robust regional rate-of-change of frequency (RoCoF). Regional, local, and interconnection inertia are estimated by combining RoCoF with event power imbalance, and additional indicators (regional-to-system inertia ratio and inertial-support arrival time) quantify regional-to-interconnection coupling and relative regional contributions. The method is demonstrated on eleven regions across the Eastern Interconnection (EI) and the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC), with the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) used for validation. In ERCOT, estimates compared against energy management system (EMS) values achieve a mean absolute percentage error of 17.94%. WECC exhibits consistently shorter inertial-support arrival times (0.15–0.3 s) than EI (0.7–1.1 s), highlighting contrasting coupling and disturbance-propagation behavior. Overall, the results reveal pronounced spatial heterogeneity in inertia and coupling, underscoring the value of regional monitoring for both operational decision-making and long-term system planning.

Disturbance events↗

Roles of retailers in the peer-to-peer electricity market: A single retailer perspective

Despite extensive research in the past five years and several successfully completed and on-going pilot projects, regulators are still reluctant to implement peer-to-peer trading at a large-scale in today’s electricity market. The reason could partly be attributed to the perceived disadvantage of current market participants like retailers due to their exclusion from market participation - a fundamental property of decentralized peer-to-peer trading. As a consequence, recently, there has been growing pressure from energy service providers in favor of retailers’ participation in peer-to-peer trading. However, the role of retailers in the peer-to peer market is yet to be established as no existing study has challenged this fundamental circumspection of decentralized trading. In this context, this perspective takes the first step to discuss the feasibility of retailers’ involvement in the peer-to-peer market. In doing so, we identify key characteristics of retail-based and peer-to-peer electricity markets and discuss our viewpoint on how to incorporate a single retailer in a peer-to-peer market without compromising the fundamental decision-making characteristics of both markets. Finally, we give an example of a hypothetical business model to demonstrate how a retailer can be a part of a peer-to-peer market with a promise of collective benefits for the participants.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Localized energy burden, concentrated disadvantage, and the feminization of energy poverty

Energy burden directly influences households' health and safety. Amid a growing literature on energy, poverty and gender remains relatively understudied. We evaluate socioeconomic, geographic, and health factors as multidimensions of concentrated disadvantage that magnify energy burden in the United States over time. We show that the energy burden is more pronounced in disadvantaged counties with larger elderly, impoverished, disabled people, and racialized populations where people do not have health insurance. Neighborhoods with households headed by women of color (especially Black women) are more likely to face a high energy burden, which worsened during the COVID-19 pandemic. Although energy costs are often regarded as an individual responsibility, these findings illustrate the feminization of energy poverty and indicate the need for an intersectional and interdisciplinary framework in devising energy policy directed to households with the most severe energy burden.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Forecasting distributed energy resources adoption for power systems

Failing to incorporate accurate distributed energy resource penetration forecasts into long-term resource and transmission planning can lead to cost inefficiencies at best and system failures at worst. We have developed an open-source tool that employs an advanced Bass specification to calibrate and forecast technology adoption. The advanced specification includes geographic clustering, exogenously estimated market size, and dynamic time steps. Training on historical adoption of rooftop photovoltaics at the U.S. county-level and using detailed techno-economic estimates, our model achieves a two-year average mean-absolute-percentage-error of 19% in predicting system counts at the county-level, weighted by population. Model error was negatively correlated with market maturity - the error was 12% for counties in states with at least 28 W-per-capita of installed capacity. The advanced specification significantly reduces unweighted forecasting percent error compared to a conventional Bass specification: from 196% to 25% for capacity and from 226% to 22% for system count.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Improving the effectiveness and equity of fuel economy regulations with sales adjustment factors

Larger vehicles, such as sports utility vehicles, consume more energy than cars. Their increasing popularity runs contrary to the goal of fuel economy regulations to reduce fossil fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions and can be explained by consumer preference and lower regulation stringency, which is due to footprint, truck classification, and the omission of heterogenous lifetime vehicle distance traveled among vehicle classes. This study shows that, for both the US and China, large vehicles travel more, last longer, and are owned by higher income consumers. This means large vehicles and their high-income owners use more fuel and emit more pollutants than represented by current policy and thus raises both policy effectiveness and energy equity concerns. We propose and estimate Sales Adjustment Factors that weigh fuel economy standards based on vehicle lifetime usage and demonstrate the resultant significant improvements in the effectiveness and equity of fuel economy regulations.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Achieving an 80% carbon-free electricity system in China by 2035

Dramatic reductions in solar, wind, and battery storage costs create new opportunities to reduce emissions and costs in China’s electricity sector, beyond current policy goals. This study examines the cost, reliability, emissions, public health, and employment implications of increasing the share of non-fossil fuel (“carbon free”) electricity generation in China to 80% by 2035. The analysis uses state-of-the-art modeling with high resolution load, wind, and solar inputs. The study finds that achieving an 80% carbon free electricity system in China by 2035 could reduce wholesale electricity costs, relative to a current policy baseline, while maintaining high levels of reliability, reducing deaths from air pollution, and increasing employment. In our 80% scenario, wind and solar generation capacity reach 3 TW and battery storage capacity reaches 0.4 TW by 2035, implying a rapid scale up in these resources that will require changes in policy targets, markets and regulation, and land use policies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The past, present, and future of peaking thermal power plants in the United States

Today's power systems rely on "peaker plants" to reliably serve load during peak demand periods. In this study we consider the present competitiveness of different peaking options, how much and what kinds of plants have provided U.S. peaking capacity, and potential future peaking fleet compositions. We explore how capital intensity impacts the breakeven capacity factor between two potential resources: combustion turbines (CTs) and combined cycle plants (CCs). CTs outcompete CCs below 12%-17% annual capacity factor at today's prices, but can shift with changes to fuel or start costs. Historically, gas CTs and petroleum steam plants most closely fit the role of peakers. Peaking capacity could grow from approximately 280 GW today to 460-770 GW in 2050 composed of a wider range of resources. We conclude by discussing implications of this shift, with a focus on the potential planning considerations for shifting to a greater utilization of CCs for peaking needs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Minimized aging of isocyanurate-based rigid cellular foams for buildings through tailored barrier facers and optimized formulation

The thermal resistivity (h·ft 2 ·°F/Btu/in.) of closed-cell rigid foam insulation materials significantly decreases over time. Diffusion-tight facers are designed to significantly enhance initial thermal resistivity and long-term thermal performance by preventing gas diffusion into the foam cells and inhibiting the escape of low thermal conductivity blowing agents. In addition to the gas diffusion property of the facer film, adhesion between the foam and the facer is crucial for achieving diffusion-tight bonding. Here, this study addresses the challenge of thermal aging by investigating how facer film properties and foam formulation influence the durability of thermal performance. A systematic evaluation was conducted to understand the effects of polymeric barrier films, surface treatments, facer coverage, and foam matrix rigidity on thermal resistivity over time. Key findings reveal that diffusion-tight facers, particularly those with metallized layers and compatible heat seal layers, significantly reduce gas exchange and improve foam-facer adhesion. The optimized system, incorporating barrier facers and a tailored polyisocyanurate foam formulation, achieved initial and aged thermal resistivity values after 200 days of approximately 8.3 and 7.4 h ft 2 ·°F/Btu/in., respectively representing only a 10 % reduction compared to a 17 % reduction observed in control samples without facers. Notably, polyurethane spray foams with facers exhibited only a 4 % reduction in thermal resistivity, compared to a 23 % decrease in control samples, demonstrating nearly six times better retention of thermal performance. This innovative facer technology presents a promising solution for reducing energy costs and represents a significant advancement in optimizing energy management for building envelopes in future technologies. This technology can also be adapted for other applications that necessitate the preservation of long-term thermal performance.

Wanasinghe, Shiwanka Vidarshi [Oak Ridge National ↗

Porous Janus materials with unique asymmetries and functionality

Porous Janus materials have attracted widespread attention due to their asymmetry in wettability, charge, pore size or structure, thermal/electrical conductivity, and chemical activity, among other properties. Multifunction integration and unique directional manipulation of liquid, ions, or gas within porous Janus materials enable rapid progress in diverse applications such as water-oil separation, fog collection, personal moisture and healthcare management, energy conversion, desalination, sensor devices, and biomedical applications. Additionally, compared with conventional homogeneous materials, porous Janus materials not only showcase superior performance and energetic potential but also open up new applications by virtue of the synergistic or independent effects of asymmetry. This in-depth review systematically analyzes the research progress of porous Janus materials, highlighting fabrication strategies, synergistic/independent work mechanisms, and emerging advanced applications. Finally, ongoing challenges and outlook for the future research of porous Janus materials are presented.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Improving the economics of battery storage for industrial customers: Are incentives enough to increase adoption?

As adoption of behind-the-meter battery energy storage increases across the United States, implementation continues to lag in the industrial sector. This analysis considers two manufacturing facilities with potential for load shifting to reduce peak demand. Although both facilities have load profiles that demonstrate great potential for regular and programmed demand reduction during peak hours, battery energy storage was deemed prohibitively expensive. A review of several existing utility and state-level policies and incentives determined that few may be rightsized for the industrial customer class. Furthermore, this analysis further considers multiple incentive structures and finds that although incentives increase viability of energy storage, developers must also consider optimization, unique load profiles, and use case to effectively increase adoption of battery energy storage by industrial customers.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Leveraging Sequential Doping of Semiconducting Polymers to Enable Functionally Graded Materials for Organic Thermoelectrics

With the ability to modulate electronic properties through molecular doping coupled with ease in processability, semiconducting polymers are at the forefront in enabling organic thermoelectric devices for thermal energy management. In contrast to uniform thermoelectric material properties, an alternative route focuses on functionally graded materials (FGMs) where one spatially controls and optimizes transport properties across the length of a thermoelectric material. While primarily studied in the context of inorganic materials, the concept of FGMs for organic thermoelectrics has not been explored. Herein, we introduce how molecular doping of semiconducting polymers enables spatial compositional control of thin-film FGMs. Specifically, we utilize sequential vapor doping of poly[2,5-bis(3-tetradecylthiophen-2-yl) thieno [3,2-b]thiophene] (PBTTT) with the small molecule acceptor 2,3,5,6-tetrafluoro-7,7,8,8-tetracyanoquinodimethane (F4TCNQ) to fabricate the simplest form of FGMs – double- segmented thin films. The two thin-film segments are of equal length (7.5 mm), but each set to different doping levels. Our study focuses on understanding the thermoelectric properties (Seebeck coefficient, α, and electronic conductivity, σ) and structural properties (through X-ray scattering, UV-vis-NIR spectroscopy, and Raman spectroscopy) within and across the two segments. We observe the presence of a small diffuse interfacial region of 0.5 – 1 mm between the two segments where the doping level and transport properties vary continuously. Despite the diffuse interface, the measured effective Seebeck coefficient (αeff) across the two segments is simply the average of α within each segment. Importantly, this experimental result is consistent with reported mathematical models describing αeff in graded thermoelectric materials. Finally, our results demonstrate the facile fabrication and characterization of functionally graded organic thermoelectric materials, providing guidelines for further development on more complex FGMs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

High-throughput screening of hypothetical metal-organic frameworks for thermal conductivity

Thermal energy management in metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) is an important, yet often neglected, challenge for many adsorption-based applications such as gas storage and separations. Despite its importance, there is insufficient understanding of the structure-property relationships governing thermal transport in MOFs. To provide a data-driven perspective into these relationships, here we perform large-scale computational screening of thermal conductivity k in MOFs, leveraging classical molecular dynamics simulations and 10,194 hypothetical MOFs created using the ToBaCCo 3.0 code. We found that high thermal conductivity in MOFs is favored by high densities (> 1.0 g cm -3 ), small pores (< 10 Å), and four-connected metal nodes. We also found that 36 MOFs exhibit ultra-low thermal conductivity (< 0.02 W m -1 K -1 ), which is primarily due to having extremely large pores (~65 Å). Furthermore, we discovered six hypothetical MOFs with very high thermal conductivity (>10 Wm -1 K -1 ), the structures of which we describe in additional detail.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

PRIME: a real-time cyber-physical systems testbed: from wide-area monitoring, protection, and control prototyping to operator training and beyond

As the power grid continues to evolve with advanced wide-area monitoring, protection, and control (WAMPAC) algorithms, there is an increasing need for realistic testbed environments with industry-grade software and hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) to perform verification and validation studies. Such testbed environments serve as ideal platforms to perform WAMPAC prototyping, operator training, and also to study the impacts of different types of cyberattack scenarios on the operation of the grid. In this paper, we introduce PRIME (PNNL cybeR physIcal systeMs tEstbed): the testbed that integrates real-time transmission system simulator with commercial industry grade energy management system (EMS) software and remote hardware-in-the-loop (RHIL). PRIME is an end-to-end, modular testbed that allows high-fidelity RHIL experimentation of a power system. We present two detailed case studies (fault location and clearing in transmission system, and operator training) to showcase the capabilities of our PRIME testbed. Finally, we briefly discuss some of the potential limitations of our testbed in terms of scalability and flexibility to setup larger test systems and identify directions for future work to address those limitations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Concept of circular-linear energy recovery accelerator to probe the energy frontier

Energy-frontier accelerators provide powerful tools performing high precision measurements confirming the fundamentals of the physics and broadening new research horizons. Such machines are either driven by circular or linear accelerators. The circular machines, having the centre-of-mass (CM) energy values reaching 200 GeV (for leptons) and above, experience beam energy loss and quality dilution, for example, due to synchrotron radiation, limiting the overall CM energy achievable and requiring a constant energy top-up to compensate the loss and the beam quality dilution. Linear colliders overcome these limitations, while the finite capabilities of generating high average current beams limits the luminosity. This is partially compensated by the quality of the colliding beams. In this work, we suggest a novel design of circular-linear accelerator based on the merging of the “non-emitting”, low-energy storage rings and energy recovery linear accelerators. We suggest using the recently considered dual-axis asymmetric cavities to enable the operation of such a system, and in particular the energy recovery from spent, high-intensity beams. The machine considered, under the scope of the SNOWMASS-2021 initiative, can be potentially used to reach ultimate energy frontiers in high-energy physics as well as to drive next generation light sources. The merging of circular and linear systems, and applications of dual axes cavities, should allow the maintaining of high beam quality, high luminosity, and high energy efficiency, while offering a flexible energy management and opening clear opportunity for reducing the running cost. We note that the numbers shown in the paper are for illustration purpose and can be improved further.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗