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At least 667 records · Page 37

MJO simulation in CMIP5 climate models: MJO skill metrics and process-oriented diagnosis

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) simulation diagnostics developed by MJO Working Group and the process-oriented MJO simulation diagnostics developed by MJO Task Force are applied to 37 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models in order to assess model skill in representing amplitude, period, and coherent eastward propagation of the MJO, and to establish a link between MJO simulation skill and parameterized physical processes. Process-oriented diagnostics include the Relative Humidity Composite based on Precipitation (RHCP), Normalized Gross Moist Stability (NGMS), and the Greenhouse Enhancement Factor (GEF). Numerous scalar metrics are developed to quantify the results. Most CMIP5 models underestimate MJO amplitude, especially when outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) is used in the evaluation, and exhibit too fast phase speed while lacking coherence between eastward propagation of precipitation/convection and the wind field. The RHCP-metric, indicative of the sensitivity of simulated convection to low-level environmental moisture, and the NGMS-metric, indicative of the efficiency of a convective atmosphere for exporting moist static energy out of the column, show robust correlations with a large number of MJO skill metrics. The GEF-metric, indicative of the strength of the column-integrated longwave radiative heating due to cloud-radiation interaction, is also correlated with the MJO skill metrics, but shows relatively lower correlations compared to the RHCP- and NGMS-metrics. Our results suggest that modifications to processes associated with moisture-convection coupling and the gross moist stability might be the most fruitful for improving simulations of the MJO. Though the GEF-metric exhibits lower correlations with the MJO skill metrics, the longwave radiation feedback is highly relevant for simulating the weak precipitation anomaly regime that may be important for the establishment of shallow convection and the transition to deep convection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Projections of winter polynyas and their biophysical impacts in the Ross Sea Antarctica

Abstract This study investigates winter polynyas in the southern Ross Sea, Antarctica where several polynyas are known to form. Coastal polynyas are areas of lower sea ice concentration and/or thickness along the coast that are otherwise surrounded by more extensive, thicker sea ice pack. Polynyas are also locations where organisms can exploit both the ice substrate and pelagic resources. Using a self organizing map algorithm, we identify polynya events in the Community Earth System Model Version 2 Large Ensemble (CESM2-LE). The neural network algorithm is able to identify polynya events without imposing an ice concentration or thickness threshold, as is often done when identifying polynyas. The CESM2-LE produces a wintertime polynya feature comparable in size and location to the Ross Sea polynya, and during polynya events there are large turbulent heat fluxes and export of sea ice from the Ross Sea. In the CESM2-LE polynya event frequency is projected to decrease sharply in the later twentyfirst century, leading to increasing sea ice concentrations and thicknesses in the region. The drivers of the polynya frequency decline are likely both large scale circulation changes and local atmosphere and ocean feedbacks. If declines in wintertime polynya frequency over the twentyfirst century do occur they may impact Antarctic Bottom Water formation and local net primary productivity. Thus, better understanding potential local and unexpected sea ice changes in the Ross Sea is important for both assessing climate system impacts and ecological impacts on the Ross Sea ecosystem, which is currently protected by an internationally recognized marine protected area.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Compartment-specific energy requirements of photosynthetic carbon metabolism in Camelina sativa leaves

Abstract Main conclusion The oxidative pentose phosphate pathway provides cytosolic NADPH yet reduces carbon and energy use efficiency. Repressing this pathway and introducing cytosolic NADPH-dependent malate dehydrogenase may increase crop yields by ≈5%. Abstract Detailed knowledge about plant energy metabolism may aid crop improvements. Using published estimates of flux through central carbon metabolism, we phenotype energy metabolism in illuminated Camelina sativa leaves (grown at 22 °C, 500 µmol photons m −2 s −1 ) and report several findings. First, the oxidative pentose phosphate pathway (OPPP) transfers 3.3% of the NADPH consumed in the Calvin–Benson cycle to the cytosol. NADPH supply proceeds at about 10% of the rate of net carbon assimilation. However, concomitantly respired CO 2 accounts for 4.8% of total rubisco activity. Hence, 4.8% of the flux through the Calvin–Benson cycle and photorespiration is spent on supplying cytosolic NADPH, a significant investment. Associated energy requirements exceed the energy output of the OPPP. Thus, autotrophic carbon metabolism is not simply optimised for flux into carbon sinks but sacrifices carbon and energy use efficiency to support cytosolic energy metabolism. To reduce these costs, we suggest bioengineering plants with a repressed cytosolic OPPP, and an inserted cytosolic NADPH-dependent malate dehydrogenase tuned to compensate for the loss in OPPP activity (if required). Second, sucrose cycling is a minor investment in overall leaf energy metabolism but a significant investment in cytosolic energy metabolism. Third, leaf energy balancing strictly requires oxidative phosphorylation, cofactor export from chloroplasts, and peroxisomal NADH import. Fourth, mitochondria are energetically self-sufficient. Fifth, carbon metabolism has an ATP/NADPH demand ratio of 1.52 which is met if ≤ 21.7% of whole electron flux is cyclic. Sixth, electron transport has a photon use efficiency of ≥ 62%. Last, we discuss interactions between the OPPP and the cytosolic oxidation–reduction cycle in supplying leaf cytosolic NADPH.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Multi-Scale Temporal Patterns in Stream Biogeochemistry Indicate Linked Permafrost and Ecological Dynamics of Boreal Catchments

Temporal patterns in stream chemistry provide integrated signals describing the hydrological and ecological state of whole catchments. However, stream chemistry integrates multi-scale signals of processes occurring in both the catchment and stream. Deconvoluting these signals could identify mechanisms of solute transport and transformation and provide a basis for monitoring ecosystem change. Here, we applied trend analysis, wavelet decomposition, multivariate autoregressive state-space modeling, and analysis of concentration-discharge relationships to assess temporal patterns in high-frequency (15 min) stream chemistry from permafrost-influenced boreal catchments in Interior Alaska at diel, storm, and seasonal time scales. We compared catchments that varied in spatial extent of permafrost to identify characteristic biogeochemical signals. Catchments with higher spatial extents of permafrost were characterized by increasing nitrate concentration through the thaw season, an abrupt increase in nitrate and fluorescent dissolved organic matter (fDOM) and declining conductivity in late summer, and flushing of nitrate and fDOM during summer rainstorms. In contrast, these patterns were absent, of lower magnitude, or reversed in catchments with lower permafrost extent. Solute dynamics revealed a positive influence of permafrost on fDOM export and the role of shallow, seasonally dynamic flowpaths in delivering solutes from high-permafrost catchments to streams. Lower spatial extent of permafrost resulted in static delivery of nitrate and limited transport of fDOM to streams. Shifts in concentration-discharge relationships and seasonal trends in stream chemistry toward less temporally dynamic patterns might therefore indicate reorganized catchment hydrology and biogeochemistry due to permafrost thaw.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Developing an Interactive Data Visualization Tool to Assess the Impact of Decision Support on Clinical Operations

Due to mandates from recent legislation, clinical decision support (CDS) software is being adopted by radiology practices across the country. This software provides imaging study decision support for referring providers at the point of order entry. CDS systems produce a large volume of data, providing opportunities for research and quality improvement. In order to better visualize and analyze trends in this data, an interactive data visualization dashboard was created using a commercially available data visualization platform. Following the integration of a commercially available clinical decision support product into the electronic health record, a dashboard was created using a commercially available data visualization platform (Tableau, Seattle, WA). Data generated by the CDS were exported from the data warehouse, where they were stored, into the platform. This allowed for real-time visualization of the data generated by the decision support software. The creation of the dashboard allowed the output from the CDS platform to be more easily analyzed and facilitated hypothesis generation. Integrating data visualization tools into clinical decision support tools allows for easier data analysis and can streamline research and quality improvement efforts.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Efficiency Improvement in a Busy Radiology Practice: Determination of Musculoskeletal Magnetic Resonance Imaging Protocol Using Deep-Learning Convolutional Neural Networks

The purposes of this study are to evaluate the feasibility of protocol determination with a convolutional neural networks (CNN) classifier based on short-text classification and to evaluate the agreements by comparing protocols determined by CNN with those determined by musculoskeletal radiologists. Following institutional review board approval, the database of a hospital information system (HIS) was queried for lists of MRI examinations, referring department, patient age, and patient gender. These were exported to a local workstation for analyses: 5258 and 1018 consecutive musculoskeletal MRI examinations were used for the training and test datasets, respectively. The subjects for pre-processing were routine or tumor protocols and the contents were word combinations of the referring department, region, contrast media (or not), gender, and age. The CNN Embedded vector classifier was used with Word2Vec Google news vectors. The test set was tested with each classification model and results were output as routine or tumor protocols. The CNN determinations were evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. The accuracies were evaluated by a radiologist-confirmed protocol as the reference protocols. The optimal cut-off values for protocol determination between routine protocols and tumor protocols was 0.5067 with a sensitivity of 92.10%, a specificity of 95.76%, and an area under curve (AUC) of 0.977. The overall accuracy was 94.2% for the ConvNet model. All MRI protocols were correct in the pelvic bone, upper arm, wrist, and lower leg MRIs. Deep-learning-based convolutional neural networks were clinically utilized to determine musculoskeletal MRI protocols. CNN-based text learning and applications could be extended to other radiologic tasks besides image interpretations, improving the work performance of the radiologist.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Heterologous expression of a β- d -glucosidase in Caldicellulosiruptor bescii has a surprisingly modest effect on the activity of the exoproteome and growth on crystalline cellulose

Abstract Members of the genus Caldicellulosiruptor are the most thermophilic cellulolytic bacteria so far described and are capable of efficiently utilizing complex lignocellulosic biomass without conventional pretreatment. Previous studies have shown that accumulation of high concentrations of cellobiose and, to a lesser extent, cellotriose, inhibits cellulase activity both in vivo and in vitro and high concentrations of cellobiose are present in C. bescii fermentations after 90 h of incubation. For some cellulolytic microorganisms, β-d-glucosidase is essential for the efficient utilization of cellobiose as a carbon source and is an essential enzyme in commercial preparations for efficient deconstruction of plant biomass. In spite of its ability to grow efficiently on crystalline cellulose, no extracellular β-d-glucosidase or its GH1 catalytic domain could be identified in the C. bescii genome. To investigate whether the addition of a secreted β-d-glucosidase would improve growth and cellulose utilization by C. bescii, we cloned and expressed a thermostable β-d-glucosidase from Acidothermus cellulolyticus (Acel_0133) in C. bescii using the CelA signal sequence for protein export. The effect of this addition was modest, suggesting that β-d-glucosidase is not rate limiting for cellulose deconstruction and utilization by C. bescii.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

A Decision-Making Machine Learning Approach in Hermite Spectral Approximations of Partial Differential Equations

The accuracy and effectiveness of Hermite spectral methods for the numerical discretization of partial differential equations on unbounded domains are strongly affected by the amplitude of the Gaussian weight function employed to describe the approximation space. This is particularly true if the problem is under-resolved, i.e., there are no enough degrees of freedom. The issue becomes even more crucial when the equation under study is time-dependent, forcing in this way the choice of Hermite functions where the corresponding weight depends on time. In order to adapt dynamically the approximation space, it is here proposed an automatic decision-making process that relies on machine learning techniques, such as deep neural networks and support vector machines. The algorithm is numerically tested with success on a simple 1D problem, but the main goal is its exportability in the context of more serious applications. Here we also show at the end an application in the framework of plasma physics.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Advancing nuclear forensics competencies at the National Nuclear Center of the Republic of Kazakhstan and conceptual development of a National Nuclear Forensics Library

Since 2021, the National Nuclear Center (NNC) of the Republic of Kazakhstan has been successfully developing a project dedicated to nuclear forensics. The relevance of this project is underscored by Kazakhstan’s leading position in the global uranium mining and export market. The country operates research reactors and is involved in the production of experimental nuclear fuel. The nuclear forensics project is being implemented in several key areas: the project will develop competencies in laboratory research of samples, interpretation of results, and develop a prototype concept for the National Nuclear Forensics Library. In implementing these challenges, the NNC experts draw on the experience of colleagues from world-leading scientific and research centers. Designing a prototype National Nuclear Forensics Library (NNFL) is a challenging project. In conclusion, the solution to this task is based on the IAEA’s approaches, recommendations, and the experience gained from the construction of similar systems in other countries.

and nuclear chemistry↗

Kansas Energy Sources: A Geological Review

Kansas produces both conventional energy (oil, gas, and coal) and nonconventional (coalbed gas, wind, hydropower, nuclear, geothermal, solar, and biofuels) and ranks the 22nd in state energy production in the U.S. Nonrenewable conventional petroleum is the most important energy source with nonrenewable, nonconventional coalbed methane gas becoming increasingly important. Many stratigraphic units produce oil and/or gas somewhere in the state with the exception of the Salina Basin in north-central Kansas. Coalbed methane is produced from shallow wells drilled into the thin coal units in southeastern Kansas. At present, only two surface coal mines are active in southeastern Kansas. Although Kansas has been a major exporter of energy in the past (it ranked first in oil production in 1916), now, it is an energy importer.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Evaluation of Impact of Potential Extreme Rainfall Events on Mining in Peru

The impact that climate change may play in the future sustainability of mining projects has become increasingly important for the mining industry and its stakeholders. The most significant areas of concern are mine infrastructure, supply chains, health and safety conditions, environmental management, community relations and exploration. This is particularly relevant to mining in a country as climatically vulnerable as Peru. This study focuses on the identification of mining regions and main commodities in Peru that are potentially vulnerable to future extreme rainfall events associated with climate change. From a mine design and planning perspective, this study is a first step to illustrate the importance of considering the impacts of different climatic scenarios on mining in Peru. Based on HadGEM2-ES global climate model projections, mining regions across Peru were clustered into “super-regions” with differing potentials of extreme rainfall events during the next three decades. Five indices for precipitation extremes were used, and their variations between 1971–2000 and 2015–2034 were computed. Current and future metallic mining projects expected to take place across Peru in the next 30 years were retrieved from a mining database and subsequently exported into a geographical information systems software to represent their location and interpolate the variation for each precipitation extreme index. The results of this study point out at a decreasing trend in rainfall extremes intensity and frequency in regions of southern Peru. For copper projects located in these regions, a decrease in rainfall events could also imply an eventual decrease in total precipitation and consequently a deficit in water availability during the next three decades. Mining regions in central Peru, with significant number of zinc projects, are likely to experience a marked increase in overall annual precipitation, average daily precipitation intensity, consecutive days of precipitation and number of heavy precipitation days. At a lesser extent than in central Peru, gold projects in northern Peru are also likely to experience an overall increase in precipitation extremes. The approach used for this research could be extended to other mining regions around the world with extreme weather events.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Empirical evidence that glucan-interacting amino acid side chains within the transmembrane channel collectively facilitate cellulose synthase function

The fundamental mechanism of cellulose synthesis is widely conserved across Kingdoms and depends on cellulose synthases, which are processive, dual-function, family 2 glycosyltransferases (GT-2). These enzymes polymerize glucose on the cytoplasmic side of the plasma membrane and export the glucan chain to the cell surface through an integral transmembrane (TM) channel. Structural studies of active plant cellulose synthases (CESAs) have revealed interactions between the nascent glucan chain and the side chains of polar, charged, and aromatic amino acid residues that line the TM channel. However, the functional consequences of modifying these side chains have not been tested in vivo in CESAs or other processive GT-2s. To test this, we used an established in vivo assay based on genetic complementation of CESA5 in the moss, Physcomitrium patens. For accurate prediction of glucan-interacting amino acid residues, we generated a complete homotrimeric molecular model of PpCESA5 using a combination of homology and de novo modeling. All-atom molecular dynamics-based analyses of contact metrics and interaction energy identified 23 amino acid residues with high propensity to interact with the nascent glucan chain within the TM channel or on the apoplastic surface of PpCESA5. Mutating any one of 18 of these amino acid residues to alanine, thereby removing their side chains, abolished or impaired CESA function, with the strongest effects observed upon the loss of charged amino acid side chains. This provides direct evidence to support the hypothesis that multiple amino acid residues collectively maintain a smooth energy landscape within the TM channel to facilitate glucan translocation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Static Thermochemical Model of COREX Melter Gasifier

COREX is one of the commercial smelting reduction processes. It uses the finer size ore and semi-soft coal instead of metallurgical coke to produce hot metal from iron ore. The use of top gas with high calorific value as a by-product export gas makes the process economical and green. The predictive thermochemical model of the COREX process presented here enables rapid computation of process parameters such as (1) required amount of ore, coal, and flux; (2) amount of slag and gas generated; and (3) gas compositions (based on the raw material and desired hot metal quality). The model helps in predicting the variations in process parameters with respect to the (1) degree of metallization and (2) post-combustion ratio for given raw material conditions. In general reduction in coal, flux, and oxygen, the requirement is concomitant with an increase in the degree of metallization and post-combustion ratio. The model reported here has been benchmarked using industrial data obtained from the JSW Steel Plant, India.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Prospects for Non-Rare Earth Permanent Magnets for Traction Motors and Generators

With the advent of high-flux density permanent magnets based on rare earth elements such as neodymium (Nd) in the 1980s, permanent magnet-based electric machines had a clear performance and cost advantage over induction machines when weight and size were factors such as in hybrid electric vehicles and wind turbines. However, the advantages of the permanent magnet-based electric machines may be overshadowed by supply constraints and high prices of their key constituents, rare earth elements, which have seen nearly a 10-fold increase in price in the last 5 years and the imposition of export limits by the major producing country, China, since 2010. We outline the challenges, prospects, and pitfalls for several potential alloys that could replace Nd-based permanent magnets with more abundant and less strategically important elements.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

China’s rare earth supply chain: Illegal production, and response to new cerium demand

As the demand for personal electronic devices, wind turbines, and electric vehicles increases, the world becomes more dependent on rare earth elements. Given the volatile, Chinese-concentrated supply chain, global attempts have been made to diversify supply of these materials. However, the overall effect of supply diversification on the entire supply chain, including increasing low-value rare earth demand, is not fully understood. This paper is the first attempt to shed some light on China’s supply chain from both demand and supply perspectives, taking into account different Chinese policies such as mining quotas, separation quotas, export quotas, and resource taxes. We constructed a simulation model using Powersim Studio that analyzes production (both legal and illegal), production costs, Chinese and rest-of-world demand, and market dynamics. We also simulated new demand of an automotive aluminum-cerium alloy in the U.S. market starting from 2018. Results showed that market share of the illegal sector has grown since 2007 to 2015, ranging between 22% and 25% of China’s rare earth supply, translating into 59–65% illegal heavy rare earths and 14–16% illegal light rare earths. There would be a shortage in certain light and heavy rare earths given three production quota scenarios and constant demand growth rate from 2015 to 2030. The new simulated Ce demand would require supply beyond that produced in China. Lastly, we illustrated revenue streams for different ore compositions in China in 2015.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Uncertainties in estimating global potential yields and their impacts for long-term modeling

Estimating realistic potential yields by crop type and region is challenging; such yields depend on both biophysical characteristics (e.g., soil characteristics, climate, etc.), and the crop management practices available in any site or region (e.g., mechanization, irrigation, crop cultivars). A broad body of literature has assessed potential yields for selected crops and regions, using several strategies. In this study we first analyze future potential yields of major crop types globally by two different estimation methods, one of which is based on historical observed yields (“Empirical”), while the other is based on biophysical conditions (“Simulated”). Potential yields by major crop and region are quite different between the two methods; in particular, Simulated potential yields are typically 200% higher than Empirical potential yields in tropical regions for major crops. Applying both of these potential yields in yield gap closure scenarios in a global agro-economic model, GCAM, the two estimates of future potential yields lead to very different outcomes for the agricultural sector globally. In the Simulated potential yield closure scenario, Africa, Asia, and South America see comparatively favorable outcomes for agricultural sustainability over time: low land use change emissions, low crop prices, and high levels of self-sufficiency. In contrast, the Empirical potential yield scenario is characterized by a heavy reliance on production and exports in temperate regions that currently practice industrial agriculture. At the global level, this scenario has comparatively high crop commodity prices, and more land allocated to crop production (and associated land use change emissions) than either the baseline or Simulated potential yield scenarios. This study highlights the importance of the choice of methods of estimating potential yields for agro-economic modeling.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Inorganic carbon dynamics and CO 2 flux associated with coal-mine drainage sites in Blythedale PA and Lambert WV, USA

Drainage from coal mines, where carbonate dissolution is driven by sulfuric acid, can result in a net transfer of geologically-bound carbon to the atmosphere. The flux and downstream evolution of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) is presented for two coal mine sites that discharge high concentrations of DIC (3.7–4.5 mM C) producing a total flux of DIC from the mine from 13 to 249 kg-C/year (18–364 metric tons of CO 2 /year). More than 65 % of the total DIC is lost via CO 2 evasion with the remaining DIC is exported downstream as dissolved species. The fate of the DIC depends upon the pH of the water which is controlled by evasion of CO 2 , the concentration of pre-existing alkalinity, carbonate precipitation and dissolution, and metal hydrolysis reactions. The CO 2 concentrations and fluxes from the study sites are comparable to those estimated from literature data for other coal mine sites in the Appalachian region. The total flux estimated from a dataset of 140 coal mines was comparable in magnitude to the CO 2 emissions from a small coal-fired power plant. The extent of CO 2 degassing from mine waters is poorly constrained because (1) flux estimates can be biased low when acid waters are excluded in alkalinity-based estimates; (2) flux estimates can be biased high if non-carbonate alkalinity is present in the mine waters; and (3) mine waters react rapidly following discharge hampering the measurement process. Lastly, the study sites presented illustrate the impact of coal mining as an anthropogenic influence on carbon cycling; however, more data are necessary to fully estimate the importance of this impact on regional scales

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Chapter 2: Global Value Chain and Manufacturing Analysis on Geothermal Power Plant Turbines

The global geothermal power market has shown significant growth since the last decade and is expected to reach a total installed capacity of 18.4 gigawatts electric (GWe) by the end of 2021 (GEA, 2016). The global geothermal power plant turbine market is dominated by a small number of manufacturers. Between 2005 and 2015, 82% of the geothermal steam turbines were manufactured in Japan, and 74% of the geothermal binary cycle turboexpanders were manufactured in Israel. During this period, the United States played an important role in the global trade flow of fully assembled turbine units and turbine parts, with a high volume of imports and exports. Another significant growth area was in Italian turbine/turboexpander manufacturers, who have increased their market share in the last couple of years. One other important change in the manufacturing market was in Turkey, where the bonus on feed-in-tariff (FIT) for domestic hardware components boosted the national manufacturing sector between 2010 and 2020. When planning geothermal power projects, developers customize their power plant size to fit the available geothermal resource capacity. The turbine is designed and sized to optimize the efficiency and utilization of resource and revenue production. The rest of the power plant components such as heat exchangers (HX), water-cooled cooling towers (WCCT), or air-cooled condensers (ACC) are then chosen to complement the turbine size and design. These one-off manufacturing custom design turbines have relatively higher manufacturing set-up costs, longer lead times, and higher capital costs than the standard design turbines manufactured in larger volumes. However, turbines produced in standard increments and in larger manufacturing volumes could result in lower costs per turbine, but potentially lower efficiency. Based on pipeline projects and resource assessments, there is significant potential value in creating standard turbine sizes that could offer an economic advantage, as is done for modular microturbines.

40 EE - Geothermal Technologies Office (EE-4G)↗