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DOE OSTI2020

Bayesian inference of Stochastic reaction networks using Multifidelity Sequential Tempered Markov Chain Monte Carlo

Stochastic reaction network models are often used to explain and predict the dynamics of gene regulation in single cells.These models usually involve several parameters, such as the kinetic rates of chemical reactions, that are not directly measurable and must be inferred from experimental data. Bayesian inference provides a rigorous probabilistic frame-work for identifying these parameters by finding a posterior parameter distribution that captures their uncertainty.Traditional computational methods for solving inference problems such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods based on classical Metropolis-Hastings algorithm involve numerous serial evaluations of the likelihood function, which in turn requires expensive forward solutions of the chemical master equation (CME). We propose an alternate approach based on a multifidelity extension of the Sequential Tempered Markov Chain Monte Carlo (ST-MCMC) sampler. This algorithm is built upon Sequential Monte Carlo and solves the Bayesian inference problem by decomposing it into a sequence of efficiently solved subproblems that gradually increase both model fidelity and the influence of the observed data. We reformulate the finite state projection (FSP) algorithm, a well-known method for solving the CME, to produce a hierarchy of surrogate master equations to be used in this multifidelity scheme. To determine the appropriate fidelity, we introduce a novel information-theoretic criteria that seeks to extract the most information about the ultimate Bayesian posterior from each model in the hierarchy without inducing significant bias. This novel sampling scheme is tested with high performance computing resources using biologically relevant problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Third integer resonant extraction transit time simulation studies

In this work, we present the investigation of transit time of particles in the non-linear third-integer resonant extraction process. Transit time is defined as the number of turns a particle takes to get extracted once it is in the unstable region in the phase space, i.e., outside the triangular separatrix in case of third-integer resonance. The study of transit time is important because transit time directly contributes to the beam response time during resonant extraction and thus knowing it apriori would be practically useful in designing of the extraction system. In this work, we shall investigate the analytical derivation of the transit time of particles (to the first order Kobayashi Hamiltonian) in different parts of the phase space distribution and compare against the analytical results. We also compare the simulation result of the transit time of particles (with higher statistics) for the static as well as dynamic extraction conditions cases, particularly in the context of resonant extraction parameters for Mu2e experiment at Fermilab.

Narayanan, Aakaash [Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2025

Third Integer Resonant Extraction Transit Time Simulation Studies

Narayanan, Aakaash [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000157944↗

DOE OSTI2025

Study of the Design and Characteristics of a Modified Pulsed Plasma Thruster with Graphite and Tungsten Trigger Electrodes

The paper presents experimental results for a modified pulsed plasma thruster (PPT) with solid propellant, using a coaxial anode–cathode design. Graphite from pencil leads served as propellant, and a tungsten trigger electrode was tested to reduce carbonization effects. Experiments were performed in a vacuum chamber at 0.001 Pa, employing diagnostics such as discharge current/voltage recording, power measurement, ballistic pendulum, time-of-flight (TOF) method, and a Faraday cup. Current and voltage waveforms matched an oscillatory RLC circuit with variable plasma channel resistance. Key discharge parameters were measured, including current pulse duration/amplitude and plasma channel formation/decay dynamics. Impulse bit values, obtained with a ballistic pendulum, reached up to 8.5 μN·s. Increasing trigger capacitor capacitance reduced thrust due to unstable “pre-plasma” formation and partial pre-discharge energy loss. Using TOF and Faraday cup diagnostics, plasma front velocity, ion current amplitude, current density, and ion concentration were determined. Tungsten electrodes produced lower charged particle concentrations than graphite but offered better adhesion resistance, minimal carbonization, and stable long-term performance. The findings support optimizing trigger electrode materials and PPT operating modes to extend lifetime and stabilize thrust output.

Faraday cup↗

DOE OSTI2025

Determination of Constraint-Independent Crack Tip Opening Angle for Stable Crack Growth in High-Strength Ductile Steels

The crack tip opening angle (CTOA) is one of fracture toughness parameters that has been used for decades in describing large stable crack growth in thin-walled aerospace structures under the low-constraint conditions. Recently, the pipeline industry has developed a growing interest in using the CTOA parameter to serve as the minimum required fracture toughness to arrest dynamic crack propagation in modern gas transmission pipelines made of high-strength ductile steel. To meet this industrial need, the CTOA test standard ASTM E3039 was therefore developed for measuring the constant critical CTOA. ASTM E3039 recommends a drop weight tearing test (DWTT) specimen with a shallow crack for standard CTOA testing, but its CTOA may depend on the low constraint condition of the DWTT specimen at the crack tip. Verifying the constraint independence of the DWTT-measured CTOA thus becomes indispensable for applying CTOA toughness to the running fracture control in the pipeline design. For this purpose, the present paper evaluates critical CTOA values in a set of fracture toughness tests on single-edge notched bend (SENB) specimens with shallow and deep cracks, based on four CTOA estimation models. Among these, the Ln(P)-LLD linear fit model is similar to that recommended by ASTM E3039 for CTOA calculation. Fracture test data for X80 pipeline steel and HY80 structural steel were considered in the CTOA evaluation. The results showed that the four CTOA models were able to determine a constraint independent CTOA value for stable crack growth in the SENB specimens. As a result, a single, reliable, constant CTOA value could be determined regardless of the specimen geometry or the crack-tip constraint conditions. Therefore, the CTOA measured using ASTM E3039 is constraint-independent and transferable to use in cases of actual cracks propagating in gas transmission pipelines.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) airborne field campaign data products between 2013 and 2018

Airborne measurements are pivotal for providing detailed, spatiotemporally resolved information about atmospheric parameters and aerosol and cloud properties, thereby enhancing our understanding of dynamic atmospheric processes. For 30 years, the US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science supported an instrumented Gulfstream 1 (G-1) aircraft for atmospheric field campaigns. Data from the final decade of G-1 operations were archived by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Data Center and made publicly available at no cost to all registered users. To ensure a consistent data format and to improve the accessibility of the ARM airborne data, an integrated dataset was recently developed covering the final 6 years of G-1 operations (2013 to 2018, https://doi.org/10.5439/1999133; Mei and Gaustad, 2024). The integrated dataset includes data collected from 236 flights (766.4 h), which covered the Arctic, the US Southern Great Plains (SGP), the US West Coast, the eastern North Atlantic (ENA), the Amazon Basin in Brazil, and the Sierras de Córdoba range in Argentina. These comprehensive data streams provide much-needed insight into spatiotemporal variability in the thermodynamic quantities and aerosol and cloud properties for addressing essential science questions in Earth system process studies. This paper describes the DOE ARM merged G-1 datasets, including information on the acquisition, data collection challenges and future potentials, and quality control processes. It further illustrates the usage of this merged dataset to evaluate the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) with the Earth System Model Aerosol–Cloud Diagnostics (ESMAC Diags) package.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Encoding nonlinear and unsteady aerodynamics of limit cycle oscillations using nonlinear sparse Bayesian learning

This article investigates the applicability of a recently proposed, nonlinear sparse Bayesian learning (NSBL) algorithm to identify and estimate the complex aerodynamics of limit cycle oscillations. NSBL provides a semi-analytical framework for determining the data-optimal sparse model nested within a (potentially) over-parameterized model. This is particularly relevant to nonlinear dynamical systems where modelling approaches involve the use of physics-based and data-driven components. In such cases, the data-driven components, where analytical descriptions of the physical processes are not readily available, are often prone to overfitting, meaning that the empirical aspects of these models will often involve the calibration of an unnecessarily large number of parameters. While an overparameterized model may fit the observed data well, such models may be inadequate for making predictions in regimes that are different from those wherein the data were recorded. In view of this, it is desirable to not only calibrate the model parameters, but also identify the optimal compromise between data fit and model complexity. In this article, we exhibit the optimal model discovery for an aeroelastic system wherein the structural dynamics are well-known and described by a differential equation model, coupled with a semi-empirical aerodynamic model for laminar separation flutter, resulting in low-amplitude limit cycle oscillations (LCO). To illustrate the performance of the algorithm, in this article, we use synthetic data and demonstrate the ability of the algorithm to correctly rediscover the optimal model and model parameters, given a known data-generating model. The synthetic data are generated from a forward simulation of a known differential equation model with parameters selected so as to mimic the dynamics observed in wind-tunnel experiments. Subsequently, we demonstrate the performance of the algorithm for model selection using noisy LCO data from wind tunnel experiments. As there is no ground truth available for the experimental data case, we provide a comparison between NSBL and Bayesian model selection to validate the results, and demonstrate the use of NSBL as an efficient alternative to traditional methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Lower length scale informed improvements to Bison U-Pu-Zr fuel swelling model

Due to renewed interest in metallic fuels from the U-(Pu)-Zr material system, significant improvements have recently been made to BISON's capability to simulate metallic fuel, particularly in the area of swelling. In this report, lower length scale simulations that have been conducted to inform the engineering-scale models in BISON during FY20 are described. For the high-temperature regions of the fuel that are dominated by the $\gamma$ phase of U-(Pu)-Zr, two new models for swelling have implemented in BISON. Phase-field simulations were conducted to calculate parameters for these and other BISON models that control when gaseous swelling ceases and fission gas release begins. For the low-temperature regions of the fuel dominated by the phase of uranium, microstructurally resolved simulations of pore growth and crystal deformation were performed to understand the effect of irradiation-generated crystal shape changes. Conformally meshed microstructures with pores were simulated with a crystal plasticity model and with a burnup eigenstrain model. Plastic deformation will not cause pore size to increase; burnup eigenstrain (irradiation-induced crystal shape changes) will increase the volume of existing porosity and cause it to become anisotropic in shape. Additional model development work for early-stage fission gas cluster/bubble formation in the $\gamma$ phase were performed, by coupling with defect clustering within cluster dynamics framework. Sensitivity analysis were conducted to identify the critical thermo-kinetic parameters needed for rigorous assessment.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Understanding the eco-geomorphologic feedback of coastal marsh under sea level rise: vegetation dynamic representations, processes interaction, and parametric sensitivity

A growing number of coastal eco-geomorphologic modeling studies have been conducted to understand coastal marsh evolution under sea-level rise (SLR). Although these models quantify marsh topographic change as a function of sedimentation and erosion, their representations of vegetation dynamics that control organic sedimentation differ. How vegetation dynamic schemes contribute to simulation outcomes is not well quantified. Additionally, the sensitivity of modeling outcomes to parameter selection in the available formulations has not been rigorously tested to date, especially under the influence of an accelerating SLR. In this paper, we used a coastal eco-geomorphologic model with different vegetation dynamic schemes to investigate the eco-geomorphologic feedbacks of coastal marshes and parametric sensitivity under SLR scenarios. We found that marsh platform relief increased with sea level rise rate. The simulations with different vegetation schemes exhibited different spatial-temporal variations in elevation and biomass. The nonlinear Spartina scheme presented the most resilient prediction with generally the highest marsh accretion and vegetation biomass, and the least elevation relief under SLR. But the linear Spartina scheme predicts the lowest unvegetated-vegetated ratio. We also found that vegetation-related parameters and sediment diffusivity, which were not well measured or discussed in previous studies, were identified as some of the most critical parameters. Additionally, the model sensitivity to vegetation-related parameters increased with SLR rates. The identified most sensitive parameters may inform how to appropriately choose modeling representations of key processes and parameters for different coastal marsh landscapes under SLR, and demonstrate the importance of future field measurements of these key parameters.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Detection of significant antiviral drug effects on COVID-19 with reasonable sample sizes in randomized controlled trials: A modeling study

Development of an effective antiviral drug for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a global health priority. Although several candidate drugs have been identified through in vitro and in vivo models, consistent and compelling evidence from clinical studies is limited. The lack of evidence from clinical trials may stem in part from the imperfect design of the trials. We investigated how clinical trials for antivirals need to be designed, especially focusing on the sample size in randomized controlled trials. A modeling study was conducted to help understand the reasons behind inconsistent clinical trial findings and to design better clinical trials. We first analyzed longitudinal viral load data for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) without antiviral treatment by use of a within-host virus dynamics model. The fitted viral load was categorized into 3 different groups by a clustering approach. Comparison of the estimated parameters showed that the 3 distinct groups were characterized by different virus decay rates (p-value < 0.001). The mean decay rates were 1.17 d -1 (95% CI: 1.06 to 1.27 d -1 ), 0.777 d -1 (0.716 to 0.838 d -1 ), and 0.450 d -1 (0.378 to 0.522 d -1 ) for the 3 groups, respectively. Such heterogeneity in virus dynamics could be a confounding variable if it is associated with treatment allocation in compassionate use programs (i.e., observational studies). Subsequently, we mimicked randomized controlled trials of antivirals by simulation. An antiviral effect causing a 95% to 99% reduction in viral replication was added to the model. To be realistic, we assumed that randomization and treatment are initiated with some time lag after symptom onset. Using the duration of virus shedding as an outcome, the sample size to detect a statistically significant mean difference between the treatment and placebo groups (1:1 allocation) was 13,603 and 11,670 (when the antiviral effect was 95% and 99%, respectively) per group if all patients are enrolled regardless of timing of randomization. The sample size was reduced to 584 and 458 (when the antiviral effect was 95% and 99%, respectively) if only patients who are treated within 1 day of symptom onset are enrolled. We confirmed the sample size was similarly reduced when using cumulative viral load in log scale as an outcome. We used a conventional virus dynamics model, which may not fully reflect the detailed mechanisms of viral dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. The model needs to be calibrated in terms of both parameter settings and model structure, which would yield more reliable sample size calculation. In this study, we found that estimated association in observational studies can be biased due to large heterogeneity in viral dynamics among infected individuals, and statistically significant effect in randomized controlled trials may be difficult to be detected due to small sample size. The sample size can be dramatically reduced by recruiting patients immediately after developing symptoms. We believe this is the first study investigated the study design of clinical trials for antiviral treatment using the viral dynamics model.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Kinetic modeling of microbial growth, enzyme activity, and gene deletions: An integrated model of β-glucosidase function in Cellvibrio japonicus

Understanding the complex growth and metabolic dynamics in microorganisms requires advanced kinetic models containing both metabolic reactions and enzymatic regulation to predict phenotypic behaviors under different conditions and perturbations. Most current kinetic models lack gene expression dynamics and are separately calibrated to distinct media, which consequently makes them unable to account for genetic perturbations or multiple substrates. This challenge limits our ability to gain a comprehensive understanding of microbial processes towards advanced metabolic optimizations that are desired for many biotechnology applications. Here, we present an integrated computational and experimental approach for the development and optimization of mechanistic kinetic models for microbial growth and metabolic and enzymatic dynamics. Our approach integrates growth dynamics, gene expression, protein secretion, and gene-deletion phenotypes. We applied this methodology to build a dynamic model of the growth kinetics in batch culture of the bacterium Cellvibrio japonicus grown using either cellobiose or glucose media. The model parameters were inferred from an experimental data set using an evolutionary computation method. The resulting model was able to explain the growth dynamics of C. japonicus using either cellobiose or glucose media and was also able to accurately predict the metabolite concentrations in the wild-type strain as well as in β-glucosidase gene deletion mutant strains. We validated the model by correctly predicting the non-diauxic growth and metabolite consumptions of the wild-type strain in a mixed medium containing both cellobiose and glucose, made further predictions of mutant strains growth phenotypes when using cellobiose and glucose media, and demonstrated the utility of the model for designing industrially-useful strains. Importantly, the model is able to explain the role of the different β-glucosidases and their behavior under genetic perturbations. Here, this integrated approach can be extended to other metabolic pathways to produce mechanistic models for the comprehensive understanding of enzymatic functions in multiple substrates.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dissipative ground state preparation in ab initio electronic structure theory

Dissipative engineering is a powerful tool for quantum state preparation, and has drawn significant attention in quantum algorithms and quantum many-body physics in recent years. In this work, we introduce a novel approach using the Lindblad dynamics to efficiently prepare the ground state for general ab initio electronic structure problems on quantum computers, without variational parameters. These problems often involve Hamiltonians that lack geometric locality or sparsity structures, which we address by proposing two generic types of jump operators for the Lindblad dynamics. Type-I jump operators break the particle number symmetry and should be simulated in the Fock space. Type-II jump operators preserves the particle number symmetry and can be simulated more efficiently in the full configuration interaction space. For both types of jump operators, we prove that in a simplified Hartree-Fock framework, the spectral gap of our Lindbladian is lower bounded by a universal constant. For physical observables such as energy and reduced density matrices, the convergence rate of our Lindblad dynamics with Type-I jump operators remains universal, while the convergence rate with Type-II jump operators only depends on coarse grained information such as the number of orbitals and the number of electrons. To validate our approach, we employ a Monte Carlo trajectory-based algorithm for simulating the Lindblad dynamics for full ab initio Hamiltonians, demonstrating its effectiveness on molecular systems amenable to exact wavefunction treatment.

Quantum chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2023

gLaSDI: Parametric physics-informed greedy latent space dynamics identification

A parametric adaptive physics-informed greedy Latent Space Dynamics Identification (gLaSDI) method is proposed for accurate, efficient, and robust data-driven reduced-order modeling of high-dimensional nonlinear dynamical systems. In the proposed gLaSDI framework, an autoencoder discovers intrinsic nonlinear latent representations of high-dimensional data, while dynamics identification (DI) models capture local latent-space dynamics. Here, an interactive training algorithm is adopted for the autoencoder and local DI models, which enables identification of simple latent-space dynamics and enhances accuracy and efficiency of data-driven reduced-order modeling. To maximize and accelerate the exploration of the parameter space for the optimal model performance, an adaptive greedy sampling algorithm integrated with a physics-informed residual-based error indicator and random-subset evaluation is introduced to search for the optimal training samples on the fly. Further, to exploit local latent-space dynamics captured by the local DI models for an improved modeling accuracy with a minimum number of local DI models in the parameter space, a -nearest neighbor convex interpolation scheme is employed. The effectiveness of the proposed framework is demonstrated by modeling various nonlinear dynamical problems, including Burgers equations, nonlinear heat conduction, and radial advection. The proposed adaptive greedy sampling outperforms the conventional predefined uniform sampling in terms of accuracy. Compared with the high-fidelity models, gLaSDI achieves 17 to 2,658× speed-up with 1 to 5% relative errors.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Runaway electron beam dynamics at low plasma density in DIII-D: energy distribution, current profile, and internal instability

Parameters of the post-disruption runaway electron (RE) beam in the collisionless background plasma achieved after deuterium injection are investigated in DIII-D. The spatially resolved RE energy distribution function is measured for the first time during the RE plateau stage by inverting hard X-ray bremsstrahlung spectra. It has maximum energy up to 20 MeV and a non-monotonous feature at 5{6 MeV observed only in the core of the beam supporting the possibility of kinetic instabilities. The RE current profile is reconstructed for the first time using the spatially resolved RE energy distribution. It is found to be more peaked than the pre-disruption plasma current, with higher internal inductance, suggesting preferential formation of REs in the core plasma or potentially a radially inward motion of the REs. The accessed relatively low-current (180 kA) RE beam is found stable, likely due to its elevated q profile. From this base stable equilibrium, instability is accessed by ramping the solenoid current. Under a large applied accelerating loop voltage an internal kink mode is observed. The kink mode leads to sawtooth-like relaxation of the RE current profile, but drives no RE loss. Under conditions of a large decelerating voltage, chirping Alfvénic instabilities driven by REs during the RE plateau stage are observed for the first time. The low-frequency (0.1{7 MHz) Alfvénic instabilities, supposedly compressional Alfvén eigenmodes, are found to be correlated with a RE loss signal. Finally, this provides novel plasma conditions to study these instabilities and investigate opportunities to utilize them for RE control. Bifurcated electron cyclotron emission (ECE) spectrum is measured during the collisionless RE plateau, with a break point at ≈100 GHz suggesting resonant absorption of the ECE at low frequencies.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Dynamic Formation of a Transient Jet from Arched Magnetized Laboratory Plasma

Abstract A laboratory plasma experiment was built to explore the eruptive behavior of arched magnetized plasmas with dimensionless parameters relevant to the Sun’s photosphere ( β ≈ 10 −3 , Lundquist number ≈10 4 , plasma radius/ion gyroradius ≈20, ion–neutral collision frequency ≫ion cyclotron frequency). Dynamic formation of a transient plasma jet was observed in the presence of the strapping magnetic field. The eruption leading to the jet is unintuitive because the arched plasma is both kink- and torus-stable. The jet structure erupts within a few Alfvén transit times from the formation of the arched plasma. Extensive measurements of plasma temperature, density, magnetic field, and flows are presented. In its early stages, the jet plasma flows away from the arch with supersonic speeds (Mach 1.5). This high-speed flow persists up to the resistive diffusion time in the arched plasma and is driven by large gradients in the magnetic and thermal pressures near the birthplace of jets. There are two distinct electric current channels within the jet, one consisting of outgoing electrons and another composed of electrons returning to the anode footpoint. Significant current density around the jet is a consequence of the diamagnetic current produced by a large thermal pressure gradient in the jet. Ion–neutral charge-exchange collisions provide an efficient mechanism to produce the cross-field current and control the dynamics of the complex current channels of the jet.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Near-field-driven radiative thermal dynamics in aperiodic photonic nanostructures

Harnessing structural correlations in near-field plasmonic and polaritonic systems hold untapped potential for controlling light–matter interactions at the nanoscale. By tuning these correlations, one can reshape mode localization, coupling, and spectral distribution which are properties central to manipulating energy transport and field enhancement in nanophotonic platforms. We exploit Vogel spirals, an aperiodic geometry where a single parameter dictates spatial correlations, to show how correlation strength reshapes the modal spectrum and transient dynamics of near-field coupling. As a proof of concept, we demonstrate that aperiodic configurations outperform both uncorrelated (random) and periodic arrays in controlling near-field radiative heat-transfer dynamics. These results establish deterministic aperiodic order as a powerful platform for tailoring correlated electromagnetic responses in next-generation nanophotonic devices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Autonomous measurements of carbon dioxide uptake in a blue carbon habitat

A better understanding of carbon cycling dynamics in coastal ecosystems is critical to quantify “blue carbon” storage. However, obtaining the necessary measurements is complicated due to the dynamic conditions that characterize these ecosystems, and requires both spatially and temporally resolved measurements of carbon dioxide concentrations and complementary water quality parameters. In this study, we evaluate the use of a utility-class autonomous surface vehicle as a platform for measuring carbon dioxide dynamics in a shallow, intertidal, blue carbon ecosystem. We integrated a carbon dioxide sensor, a water quality sonde, and hydroacoustic sensors with an autonomous surface vehicle and performed measurements in and around a meadow of Zostera marina eelgrass. Results demonstrate the utility of this system to provide insight into complex carbon cycling dynamics in and around a shallow, intertidal blue carbon habitat.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Prediction of Silicon Content in a Blast Furnace via Machine Learning: A Comprehensive Processing and Modeling Pipeline

Silicon content plays an important role in determining the operational efficiency of blast furnaces (BFs) and their downstream processes in integrated steelmaking; however, existing sampling methods and first-principles models are somewhat limited in their capability and flexibility. Current data-based prediction models primarily rely on a limited set of manually selected furnace parameters. Additionally, different BFs present a diverse set of operating parameters and state variables that are known to directly influence the hot metal’s silicon content, such as fuel injection, blast temperature, and raw material charge composition, among other process variables that have their own impacts. The expansiveness of the parameter set adds complexity to parameter selection and processing. This highlights the need for a comprehensive methodology to integrate and select from all relevant parameters for accurate silicon content prediction. Providing accurate silicon content predictions would enable operators to adjust furnace conditions dynamically, improving safety and reducing economic risk. To address these issues, a two-stage approach is proposed. First, a generalized data processing scheme is proposed to accommodate diverse furnace parameters. Second, a robust modeling pipeline is used to establish a machine learning (ML) model capable of predicting hot metal silicon content with reasonable accuracy. The method employed herein predicted the average Si content of the upcoming furnace cast with an accuracy of 91% among 200 target predictions for a specific furnace provisioned by the XGBoost model. This prediction is achieved using only the past shift’s operating conditions, which should be available in real time. This performance provides a strong baseline for the modeling approach with potential for further improvement through provision of real-time features.

Chemistry↗