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At least 667 records · Page 37

Computational Tools and Workflows for Quantitative Risk Assessment and Decision Support for Geologic Carbon Storage Sites: Progress and Insights from the U.S. DOE’s National Risk Assessment Partnership

The 2005 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on CCS raised the profile of CO2 capture and storage (CCS) as an important technology for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. CCS is now recognized as a key component of most climate change mitigation scenarios. Since publication of that report the international research, development, and deployment (RD&D) community has advanced key technical aspects, clarified regulatory requirements, explored value chain and infrastructure solutions, and developed incentive paradigms to enable and promote large-scale deployment of CCS. These efforts have included research to better characterize geologic storage resources, to improve injection performance and storage efficiency, to assess and manage subsurface environmental risks, and to advance monitoring technologies to assure system conformance. These efforts have helped to build confidence in the viability of geologic carbon storage (GCS), but stakeholder concerns about long-term risks and liability associated with GCS remain a hurdle to broad acceptance and large-scale deployment of CCS. Since 2010, the U.S. DOE’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) – a research collaboration between five contributing national laboratories – has worked to establish and demonstrate methods and tools to quantify and manage the subsurface environmental risks associated with GCS, amidst uncertainty. This work supports the Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Carbon Transport and Storage Program’s goal of advancing safe and secure commercial-scale GCS deployment. To address the technical challenge of simulating the physical response of the GCS site to large-scale CO2 injection, NRAP has adopted an approach that relies on coupling computationally efficient reduced-order and/or data-driven proxy models of important system components (i.e., storage reservoir, sealing caprock, leakage pathways, intermediate formations, overlying groundwater aquifers, and the atmosphere) in integrated assessment framework. That integrated model of the physical system is complemented with fit-for purpose functionality to support site characterization and risk-related decisions. The recently released NRAP Phase II toolset includes the Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM) for evaluation of trends in leakage risk and potential impact, tools to support monitoring design optimization (Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management – DREAM v3.0 and Passive Seismic Monitoring Tool - PSMT), and tools for state of stress evaluation (State-of-Stress Analysis Tool - SOSAT) and forecasting induced seismicity risk. The NRAP team has also released a pair of reports describing conceptual workflows to incorporate physics-based, quantitative risk assessment into many of the design, planning, operation, and closure decisions for GCS projects. An online catalogue highlights published studies where these tools and methods are demonstrated. In this presentation, the utility of these products to assess risks and address key stakeholder questions will be highlighted through examples, and related insights about the safety and security of geologic carbon storage in qualified storage sites will be discussed. The prospect of rapid, large-scale deployment of GCS technology to aggressively reduce anthropogenic CO2 emissions requires careful consideration of interference between multiple commercial-scale storage projects within a basin. Going forward, NRAP is expanding and adapting site-scale risk quantification tools and methods to enable assessment of risks and inform management decisions for basin-scale deployment. Increasingly, this work will leverage next-generation approaches for surrogate modelling, fast prediction, and advanced visualization enabled by machine learning and artificial intelligence to promote virtual learning, scenario evaluation, and augment risk-based decision making.

quantitative risk assessment, geologic carbon stor↗

Effect of Tip-Speed Constraints on the Optimized Design of a Wind Turbine

This study investigates the effect of tip-velocity constraints on system levelized cost of energy (LCOE). The results indicate that a change in maximum tip speed from 80 to 100~m/s could produce a 32% decrease in gearbox weight (a 33% reduction in cost) which would result in an overall reduction of 1%-9% in system LCOE depending on the design approach. Three 100~m/s design cases were considered including a low tip-speed ratio/high-solidity rotor design, a high tip-speed ratio/ low-solidity rotor design, and finally a flexible blade design in which a high tip-speed ratio was used along with removing the tip deflection constraint on the rotor design. In all three cases, the significant reduction in gearbox weight caused by the higher tip-speed and lower overall gear ratio was counterbalanced by increased weights for the rotor and/or other drivetrain components and the tower. As a result, the increased costs of either the rotor or drivetrain components offset the overall reduction in turbine costs from down-sizing the gearbox. Other system costs were not significantly affected, whereas energy production was slightly reduced in the 100~m/s case low tip-speed ratio case and increased in the high tip-speed ratio case. This resulted in system cost of energy reductions moving from the 80~m/s design to the 100~m/s designs of 1.2% for the low tip-speed ratio, 4.6% for the high tip-speed ratio, and 9.5% for the final flexible case (the latter result is optimistic because the impact of deflection of the flexible blade on power production was not modeled). Overall, the results demonstrate that there is a trade-off in system design between the maximum tip velocity and the overall wind plant cost of energy, and there are many trade-offs within the overall system in designing a turbine for a high maximum tip velocity.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Optimal Design and Control of Qubits

Research interest in developing computing systems that represent logic states using quantum mechanical observables has only increased in the few decades since its inception. While quantum computers, with Josephson junction based qubits, have now been commercially available in the last three years, there is also significant research initiative to develop scalable quantum computers with so-called donor qubits. B.E. Kane first published on a device implementation of a silicon-based quantum computer in 1998, which sparked a wave of follow-on advances due to the attractive nature of silicon-based computing[7]. Nearly all commercial computing systems using classical binary logic are fabricated using a silicon substrate and it is inarguably the most mature material system for semiconductor devices, so that coupling classical and quantum bits on a single substrate is possible. The process of growing and processing silicon crystals into wafers is extremely robust and leads to minimal impurities or structural defects.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Weighted greedy-optimal design of computer experiments for kernel-based and Gaussian process model emulation and calibration

This article is concerned with the approximation of high-dimensional functions by kernel-based methods. Motivated by uncertainty quantification, which often necessitates the construction of approximations that are accurate with respect to a probability density function of random variables, we aim at minimizing the approximation error with respect to a weighted $L^p$-norm. We present a greedy procedure for designing computer experiments based upon a weighted modification of the pivoted Cholesky factorization. The method successively generates nested samples with the goal of minimizing error in regions of high probability. Numerical experiments validate that this new importance sampling strategy is superior to other sampling approaches, especially when used with non-product probability density functions. We also show how to use the proposed algorithm to efficiently generate surrogates for inferring unknown model parameters from data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

PIP-II High Beta 650 Prototype Cryomodule Assembly Experience and Related Design Optimization

After shipment to the Daresbury Lab and return to Fermilab, the prototype HB650 cryomodule underwent another phase of 2K RF testing to ascertain any performance issues that may have arisen from the transport of the cryomodule. While measurements taken at room temperature after the conclusion of shipment indicated that there were no negative impacts on cavity alignment, beamline vacuum, or cavity frequency, testing at 2K was required to validate other aspects such as tuner operation, cavity coupling, cryogenic system integrity, and cavity performance. Results of this latest round of limited 2K testing will be presented.

Ozelis, J.↗

Design, Optimization, and Control of Floating Offshore Wind Farms for Optimal Energy Production (Final report)

The uncertainty and irregularity of ocean waves and the ocean environment is a major factor in the development of commercial scale floating wind turbines as the operation of floating structures in such an environment can lead to irregular and unpredictable loading, fatigue, and ultimately a reduction in the operational life of the turbine system which affects energy production over the lifetime of the turbine. Control solutions that can limit float motions and mitigate stressful events on the structure become essential for extending lifetime and limiting the operational uncertainty of a floating wind turbine. Digital twins are computational replicas of physical systems that operate in parallel with the operation of the physical system. Given advanced knowledge of a systems input, digital twins have the ability to predict the behavior of a system in advance, which can be valuable in the control of that system. In this project, we developed and assessed potential digital twin models developed in house and openly available (OpenFast) for use in the real time control of the six degree of freedom response motions of a floating wind turbine in ocean waves. Coupling these models with near-field real time irregular sea surface (wve) measurement/sensings and prediction models, we used the digital twin to predict how the floating turbine will respond to the incoming waves. Applying this information to a motion control system of the float, one can limit and control float motions to prevent undesirable loading events/large angular motions, thus increasing system life and ultimately contributing to optimizing energy production. Due to the computational intensity of operating a digital twin in real time, we investigated the use of artificial intelligence techniques to speed-up the processes of the digital twin, as well as the wave reconstruction/prediction models. Model tank testing at the University of Rhode Island and University of Maine both validated and demonstrated the developed techniques on simple float geometries and a scale model of the NREL 15 MW reference turbine.

17 WIND ENERGY↗