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DOE OSTI2018

Bulk locality and cooperative flows

We use the ‘bit thread’ formulation of holographic entanglement entropy to highlight the distinction between the universally-valid strong subadditivity and the more restrictive relation called monogamy of mutual information (MMI), known to hold for geometrical states (i.e. states of holographic theories with gravitational duals describing a classical bulk geometry). In particular, we provide a novel proof of MMI, using bit threads directly. To this end, we present an explicit geometrical construction of cooperative flows which we build out of disjoint thread bundles. We conjecture that our method applies in a wide class of configurations, including ones with non-trivial topology, causal structure, and time dependence. The explicit nature of the construction reveals that MMI is more deeply rooted in bulk locality than is the case for strong subadditivity.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2019

Superluminal chaos after a quantum quench

Thermal states holographically dual to black holes in Einstein gravity display maximal Lyapunov growth as well as “butterfly effect cones”. We study these effects in highly non-equilibrium states, obtained from an initial thermal state by the sudden injection of energy. We do this by computing out-of-time-order correlators (OTOCs) in BTZ-Vaidya spacetimes, which describe transitions between black holes at different temperatures. If both pairs of boundary operators appearing in the OTOC are inserted before the energy injection, we recover standard results, with butterfly effect cones displaying a light-cone structure. But when one pair of operators is inserted before and the other pair after the energy injection, the Lyapunov growth saturates the chaos bounds set by the local temperatures and the butterfly effect cones can “open up”, becoming superluminal, albeit in a way that does not violate causality. In the limiting case, in which the initial state is the vacuum, Lyapunov growth only starts after the energy injection. Our computations of the OTOCs are phrased in terms of gravitationally interacting particles, where fields are treated in a geodesic approximation and the eikonal phase shift is expressed in terms of stress tensors and shock waves associated to geodesics.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2019

Dynamical constraints on RG flows and cosmology

Sum rules connecting low-energy observables to high-energy physics are an interesting way to probe the mechanism of inflation and its ultraviolet origin. Unfortunately, such sum rules have proven difficult to study in a cosmological setting. Motivated by this problem, we investigate a precise analogue of inflation in anti-de Sitter spacetime, where it becomes dual to a slow renormalization group flow in the boundary quantum field theory. This dual description provides a firm footing for exploring the constraints of unitarity, analyticity, and causality on the bulk effective field theory. We derive a sum rule that constrains the bulk coupling constants in this theory. In the bulk, the sum rule is related to the speed of radial propagation, while on the boundary, it governs the spreading of nonlocal operators. When the spreading speed approaches the speed of light, the sum rule is saturated, suggesting that the theory becomes free in this limit. We also discuss whether similar results apply to inflation, where an analogous sum rule exists for the propagation speed of inflationary fluctuations.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2018

Boxwood blight: an ongoing threat to ornamental and native boxwood

Boxwood blight is an emerging disease of ornamental and native boxwood plants in the family Buxaceae . First documented in the 1990s at a single location in England, the disease is now reported throughout Europe, Asia, New Zealand, and North America. To address the growing concern over boxwood blight, ongoing research focuses on multiple biological and genetic aspects of the causal pathogens and susceptible host plants. Characterization of genetic variation among the Calonectri a fungi that cause boxwood blight shows that two unique sister species with different geographic distributions incite the disease. Studies of the pathogen life cycle show the formation of long-lived survival structures and that host infection is dependent on inoculum density, temperature, and humidity. Host range investigations detail high levels of susceptibility among boxwood as well as the potential for asymptomatic boxwood infection and for other plants in the family Buxaceae to serve as additional hosts. Multiple DNA-based diagnostic assays are available, ranging from probe-based quantitative PCR assays to the use of comparative genomics to develop robust diagnostic markers or provide whole genome-scale identifications. Though many questions remain, the research that continues to address boxwood blight demonstrates the importance of applying a multidisciplinary approach to understand and control emerging plant diseases.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Dynamic changes in evapotranspiration, canopy photosynthesis and expansive growth in open field under rapid fluctuating radiation

Abstract In open fields, plants experience dynamic changes in environment, particularly radiation, temperature, wind, and humidity but their short-term responses have not been adequately characterized under natural conditions. In this study, we assessed causal effects of rapid radiation fluctuation on seven plant parameters in open fields of cotton and sweet corn canopies. The parameters are evapotranspiration ( ET ), canopy photosynthesis indicated by CO2 flux from air to canopy ( FCO2 ), sensible heat energy flux ( H ), canopy conductance for water vapor ( gcw ), canopy surface temperature ( Ts ), shoot and leaf elongation rate, and stem diameter change. The energy and CO2 fluxes were measured with Bowen ratio/energy balance/CO2 gradient (BREB+) technique, using averaging time of 5 min. Shoot + leaf elongation and stem diameter change were monitored with position transducers using averaging time of 1 min. All parameters were all found to respond to change in radiation and transpiration within minutes or sooner. While radiation effects on canopy gas exchanges are expected, illuminating are the indirect but immediate effects on shoot + leaf growth and stem diameter change through radiation effects on transpiration and plant water status. A novel finding is that gcw also responded within minutes or sooner to radiation fluctuations and that FCO2 was related almost linearly to gcw . Results are discussed in terms of soil-plant-atmosphere continuum, and interpreted in terms of dynamic interactions between transpiration and plant water status. The clear inverse relationship between ET and elongation rate or stem diameter changes provides additional evidence supporting the validity of 5-min averaging for the BREB + technique.

Hsiao, Theodore C.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Decoding the dynamics of poleward shifting climate zones using aqua-planet model simulations

Growing evidence indicates that the atmospheric and oceanic circulation experiences a systematic poleward shift in a warming climate. However, the complexity of the climate system, including the coupling between the ocean and the atmosphere, natural climate variability and land-sea distribution, tends to obfuscate the causal mechanism underlying the circulation shift. Here, using an idealised coupled aqua-planet model, we explore the mechanism of the shifting circulation, by isolating the contributing factors from the direct CO 2 forcing, the indirect ocean surface warming, and the wind-stress feedback from the ocean dynamics. We find that, in contrast to the direct CO 2 forcing, ocean surface warming, in particular an enhanced subtropical ocean warming, plays an important role in driving the circulation shift. This enhanced subtropical ocean warming emerges from the background Ekman convergence of surface anomalous heat in the absence of the ocean dynamical change. Additionally, it expands the tropical warm water zone, causes a poleward shift of the mid-latitude temperature gradient, hence forces a corresponding shift in the atmospheric circulation and the associated wind pattern. The shift in wind, in turn drives a shift in the ocean circulation. Our simulations, despite being idealised, capture the main features of the observed climate changes, for example, the enhanced subtropical ocean warming, poleward shift of the patterns of near-surface wind, sea level pressure, storm tracks, precipitation and large-scale ocean circulation, implying that increase in greenhouse gas concentrations not only raises the temperature, but can also systematically shift the climate zones poleward.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Advances in Light-Front QCD: Supersymmetric Properties of Hadron Physics from Light-Front Holography and Superconformal Algebra

A remarkable feature of QCD is that the mass scale $k$ which controls color confinement and light-quark hadron mass scales does not appear explicitly in the QCD Lagrangian. However, de Alfaro, Fubini, and Furlan have shown that a mass scale can appear in the equations of motion without affecting the conformal invariance of the action if one adds a term to the Hamiltonian proportional to the dilatation operator or the special conformal operator. If one applies the same procedure to the light-front Hamiltonian, it leads uniquely to a confinement potential κ 4 ζ 2 for mesons, where ζ 2 is the LF radial variable conjugate to the $q\bar{q}$ invariant mass. The same result, including spin terms, is obtained using light-front holography$-$the duality between the front form and AdS 5 , the space of isometries of the conformal group$-$if one modifies the action of AdS 5 by the dilaton e $κ^2z^2$ in the fifth dimension z. When one generalizes this procedure using superconformal algebra, the resulting light-front eigensolutions predict a unified Regge spectroscopy of meson, baryon, and tetraquarks, including remarkable supersymmetric relations between the masses of mesons and baryons of the same parity. One also predicts observables such as hadron structure functions, transverse momentum distributions, and the distribution amplitudes defined from the hadronic light-front wavefunctions. The mass scale κκ underlying confinement and hadron masses can be connected to the parameter Λ $\overline{MS}$ in the QCD running coupling by matching the nonperturbative dynamics to the perturbative QCD regime. The result is an effective coupling α s (Q 2 ) defined at all momenta. The matching of the high and low momentum transfer regimes determines a scale Q 0 which sets the interface between perturbative and nonperturbative hadron dynamics. The use of Q 0 to resolve the factorization scale uncertainty for structure functions and distribution amplitudes, in combination with the principle of maximal conformality for setting the renormalization scales, can greatly improve the precision of perturbative QCD predictions for collider phenomenology. The absence of vacuum excitations of the causal, frame-independent front-form vacuum has important consequences for the cosmological constant. In conclusion, I also discuss evidence that the antishadowing of nuclear structure functions is non-universal; i.e., flavor dependent, and why shadowing and antishadowing phenomena may be incompatible with sum rules for nuclear parton distribution functions.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2011

Higher incidence of clear cell adenocarcinoma of the cervix and vagina among women born between 1947 and 1971 in the United States

Although the association between in utero exposure to diethylstilbestrol (DES) and clear cell adenocarcinoma of the cervix and vagina (CCA) was first reported among young women, subsequent case reports and cohort studies suggest that an elevated risk for CCA may persist with age. Data from the National Program of Cancer Registries (NPCR) and the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Program were used to construct indirect standardized incidence ratios (SIR) comparing CCA risk among women born during the exposure period 1947 through 1971, when DES was prescribed to pregnant women, to the relevant time period for nonexposed women born before or after DES exposure period. CCA incidence among the women born before the DES exposure period (ages 30–54 at diagnosis of CAA) or after the DES exposure period (ages 15–29 at diagnosis) were used to calculate the expected rates for women born during the DES exposure period. Among women aged 15–29 years, CCA risk increased with age and peaked in the 25–29 year age group, but the risk estimates were unstable (SIR = 6.06; 95% CI: 0.97, -251.07, SEER data). Among women aged 40–54 years, CCA risk was greatest in the 40–44 year age group (SIR = 4.55; 95% CI: 1.11, 40.19, SEER data and SIR = 3.94; 95% CI: 1.06, 33.01, NPCR/SEER data) and remained significantly elevated throughout this age group in the combined data set. Risk was not elevated among women aged 30–39 years. The observed risk of CCA, if causally related to DES exposure, reflects a persistent health impact from in utero exposure that is widespread in the general population. When assessing a woman’s cancer risks, whether her mother took DES while pregnant may still be a relevant aspect of the medical history for women born during the period of DES use in pregnancy.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

Overview of the Special Issue: A Multi-Model Framework to Achieve Consistent Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts in the United States

The Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) modeling exercise is a unique contribution to the scientific literature on climate change impacts, economic damages, and risk analysis that brings together multiple, national-scale models of impacts and damages in an integrated and consistent fashion to estimate climate change impacts, damages, and the benefits of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation actions in the United States. The CIRA project uses three consistent socioeconomic, emissions, and climate scenarios across all models to estimate the benefits of GHG mitigation policies: a Business As Usual (BAU) and two policy scenarios with radiative forcing (RF) stabilization targets of 4.5 W/m2 and 3.7 W/m2 in 2100. CIRA was also designed to specifically examine the sensitivity of results to uncertainties around climate sensitivity and differences in model structure. The goals of CIRA project are to 1) build a multi-model framework to produce estimates of multiple risks and impacts in the U.S., 2) determine to what degree risks and damages across sectors may be lowered from a BAU to policy scenarios, 3) evaluate key sources of uncertainty along the causal chain, and 4) provide information for multiple audiences and clearly communicate the risks and damages of climate change and the potential benefits of mitigation. This paper describes the motivations, goals, and design of the CIRA modeling exercise and introduces the subsequent papers in this special issue.

Climate Change Impacts↗

DOE OSTI2025

Fundamental complement of a gravitating region

Any gravitating region a in any spacetime gives rise to a generalized entanglement wedge, the hologram e(a). Holograms exhibit properties expected of fundamental operator algebras, such as strong subadditivity, nesting, and no-cloning. But the entanglement wedge EW of an AdS boundary region B with commutant $\overline{B}$ satisfies an additional condition, complementarity: EW (B) is the spacelike complement of EW ($\overline{B}$) in the bulk. Here we identify an analogue of the boundary commutant $\overline{B}$ in general spacetimes: given a gravitating region a, its fundamental complement is the smallest wedge that contains all infinite world lines contained in the spacelike complement a' of a. We refine the definition of e(a) by requiring that it be spacelike to $\tilde{a}$. We prove that e(a) is the spacelike complement of e($\tilde{a}$) when the latter is computed in a'. We exhibit many examples of and of e(a) in de Sitter, flat, and cosmological spacetimes. Here, we find that a Big Bang cosmology (spatially closed or not) is trivially reconstructible: the whole universe is the entanglement wedge of any wedge inside it. But de Sitter space is not trivially reconstructible, despite being closed. We recover the AdS/CFT prescription by proving that EW (B) = e(causal wedge of B).

Bousso, Raphael [University of California, Berkele↗

DOE OSTI2026

Evaluating ecosystem water use efficiency under drought stress: a case study of the Helan Mountain region, northwest China

Context Water use efficiency (WUE) is a fundamental ecological indicator links carbon assimilation and water loss in terrestrial ecosystems. Understanding its responses to drought stress is essential for adaptive ecosystem management, particularly in climate-sensitive mountain landscapes. Objectives This study aimed to investigate drought-driven variations in WUE across major vegetation types in the Helan Mountain region of Northwest China. Specifically, we sought to identify dominant ecological drivers of WUE variability and to disentangle their relative importance and causal pathways. Methods We quantified WUE using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products and the Drought Severity Index (DSI) data from 2001 to 2020. To examine WUE – drought relationships across contrasting vegetation types, we employed a spatially explicit analytical framework integrating Random Forest (RF) modeling, partial correlation analysis, and structural equation modeling (SEM). Results Regional WUE exhibited relatively stable interannual dynamics, yet pronounced spatial heterogeneity that was strongly modulated by drought conditions. Vegetation properties, particularly Leaf Area Index (LAI) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), emerged as the dominant determinants of WUE, with NDVI alone explaining over 20% of its spatial variance in forest and grassland during non-drought periods. SEM analyses revealed that climate forcing influenced WUE mainly through indirect pathways mediated by soil moisture availability and vegetation structural dynamics, rather than through direct climatic controls. Among all regulating factors, LAI acted as the central control node governing ecosystem carbon–water coupling. In contrast, short-term climatic stress, especially atmospheric demand and drought duration, exerted weak or negative direct effects on WUE. Ecosystem-specific responses were observed, with croplands mainly regulated by soil water availability, whereas forests and grasslands showed more sensitive to atmospheric drought stress. Together, these results reveal a hierarchical control framework where soil–vegetation interactions mediate climate impacts on WUE, driving strong spatial heterogeneity in drought responses across mountain landscapes. Conclusions Our findings highlight the pivotal role of indirect drought effects mediated by vegetation and soil processes in shaping ecosystem WUE. The identified soil–vegetation–climate regulatory hierarchy provides mechanistic insight into landscape–scale drought sensitivity and supports integrated modeling approaches for evaluating ecosystem resilience and sustainable management in arid mountain regions.

China↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Conterminous USA-Scale Map of Relative Tidal Marsh Elevation

Abstract Tidal wetlands provide myriad ecosystem services across local to global scales. With their uncertain vulnerability or resilience to rising sea levels, there is a need for mapping flooding drivers and vulnerability proxies for these ecosystems at a national scale. However, tidal wetlands in the conterminous USA are diverse with differing elevation gradients, and tidal amplitudes, making broad geographic comparisons difficult. To address this, a national-scale map of relative tidal elevation ( Z * MHW ), a physical metric that normalizes elevation to tidal amplitude at mean high water (MHW), was constructed for the first time at 30 × 30-m resolution spanning the conterminous USA. Contrary to two study hypotheses, watershed-level median Z * MHW and its variability generally increased from north to south as a function of tidal amplitude and relative sea-level rise. These trends were also observed in a reanalysis of ground elevation data from the Pacific Coast by Janousek et al. (Estuaries and Coasts 42 (1): 85–98, 2019). Supporting a third hypothesis, propagated uncertainty in Z * MHW increased from north to south as light detection and ranging (LiDAR) errors had an outsized effect under narrowing tidal amplitudes. The drivers of Z * MHW and its variability are difficult to determine because several potential causal variables are correlated with latitude, but future studies could investigate highest astronomical tide and diurnal high tide inequality as drivers of median Z * MHW and Z * MHW variability, respectively. Watersheds of the Gulf Coast often had propagated Z * MHW uncertainty greater than the tidal amplitude itself emphasizing the diminished practicality of applying Z * MHW as a flooding proxy to microtidal wetlands. Future studies could focus on validating and improving these physical map products and using them for synoptic modeling of tidal wetland carbon dynamics and sea-level rise vulnerability analyses.

Holmquist, James R. (ORCID:0000000325466766)↗

DOE OSTI2021

Cross-national analysis of food security drivers: comparing results based on the Food Insecurity Experience Scale and Global Food Security Index

Abstract The second UN Sustainable Development Goal establishes food security as a priority for governments, multilateral organizations, and NGOs. These institutions track national-level food security performance with an array of metrics and weigh intervention options considering the leverage of many possible drivers. We studied the relationships between several candidate drivers and two response variables based on prominent measures of national food security: the 2019 Global Food Security Index (GFSI) and the Food Insecurity Experience Scale’s (FIES) estimate of the percentage of a nation’s population experiencing food security or mild food insecurity (FI ). We compared the contributions of explanatory variables in regressions predicting both response variables, and we further tested the stability of our results to changes in explanatory variable selection and in the countries included in regression model training and testing. At the cross-national level, the quantity and quality of a nation’s agricultural land were not predictive of either food security metric. We found mixed evidence that per-capita cereal production, per-hectare cereal yield, an aggregate governance metric, logistics performance, and extent of paid employment work were predictive of national food security. Household spending as measured by per-capita final consumption expenditure (HFCE) was consistently the strongest driver among those studied, alone explaining a median of 92% and 70% of variation (based on out-of-sample R 2 ) in GFSI and FI , respectively. The relative strength of HFCE as a predictor was observed for both response variables and was independent of the countries used for model training, the transformations applied to the explanatory variables prior to model training, and the variable selection technique used to specify multivariate regressions. The results of this cross-national analysis reinforce previous research supportive of a causal mechanism where, in the absence of exceptional local factors, an increase in income drives increase in food security. However, the strength of this effect varies depending on the countries included in regression model fitting. We demonstrate that using multiple response metrics, repeated random sampling of input data, and iterative variable selection facilitates a convergence of evidence approach to analyzing food security drivers.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2018

Cystic Lung Disease from Protein Deposition: Pathogenesis and Associated Conditions

Purpose of Review: We explicate the development of cystic lung disease from the deposition of protein in the lung. The protein may be in the form of amyloid or non-amyloid (typically immunoglobulin-associated light chains) and is usually seen in the context of three entities: idiopathic light-chain deposition disease, Sjogren’s syndrome, and clonal lymphoplasmacytic proliferative disorders. A commonly observed and distinctive feature of the circumscribed cystic spaces is the presence of internal tissue septations. Recent Findings: The traditional causal association of lung cysts and the pathologic entity of lymphocytic interstitial pneumonitis is untenable. Instead, the development of cysts as a consequence of the degradation of lung extracellular matrix by metalloproteinases, the process initiated with the accumulation of macrophages around deposited protein, is a compelling alternative explanation. Summary: Lung cysts may be a consequence of parenchymal protein deposition. When internal septations are present, this particular pathogenesis should explicitly be considered, and the presence of associated clinical disorders further pursued.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Emerging Tools to Support DILI Assessment in Clinical Trials with Abnormal Baseline Serum Liver Tests or Pre-existing Liver Diseases

Abstract Based on the late Dr. Hyman Zimmerman’s observation that hepatocellular drug-induced liver injury (DILI) leading to jaundice carries a ≥ 10% fatality risk (coined as Hy’s law by others), evaluation of Drug-Induced Serious Hepatotoxicity (eDISH) continues to play a central role in the assessment of a study drug’s liability for acute hepatocellular DILI. The eDISH identifies drugs in clinical trials with DILI fatality (death or transplant) risk that may be unacceptable in a post-market setting. As a two-dimensional graph that plots peak total bilirubin (TB) versus peak serum aminotransferase levels for each patient during study drug or comparator treatment, eDISH identifies potential cases of acute, modest, and serious hepatocellular DILI for in-depth analysis of liver tests (LT) and clinical course so that the likelihood of causal association with the study drug can be determined. Unfortunately, the generalizable utility of this tool only pertains to trials enrolling patients with normal or near normal (NNN) baseline (BL) serum LTs. The eDISH does not necessarily apply to trials of patients with abnormal baseline (ABN-BL) LTs that often coincide with underlying liver disorders. Because drug development programs being reviewed by the FDA increasingly target liver disorders, we are often challenged to evaluate DILI risk in trials of patients with ABN-BL LTs. Also, the high background prevalence of metabolic dysfunction associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) means patients with LTs above NNN may need to be enrolled in trials treating non-liver disorders to reflect the target population. Such study populations create challenges for industry and regulators because eDISH may not reliably categorize or identify potential cases of DILI for further analysis, as it so efficiently does in NNN-BL trials. We describe the main functionalities of eDISH in NNN-BL trials to understand what should be emulated by new tools or eDISH modifications. We then discuss non-eDISH–based plots that may be useful in ABN-BL trials.

Amirzadegan, Jasmine↗

DOE OSTI2020

Deterministic incident-wave elevation prediction in intermediate water depth

Potential performance gains from optimal (non-causal) impedance-matching control of wave energy devices in irregular ocean waves are dependent on deterministic wave elevation prediction techniques that work well in practical applications. Although a number of devices are designed for operation in intermediate water depths, little work has been reported on deterministic wave prediction in such depths. Here, we investigated a deterministic wave-prediction technique based on an approximate propagation model that leads to an analytical formulation, which may be convenient to implement in practice. To improve accuracy, an approach to combine predictions based on multiple up-wave measurement points is evaluated. The overall method is tested using experimental time-series measurements recorded in the U.S. Navy MASK basin in Carderock, MD, USA. For comparison, an alternative prediction approach based on Fourier coefficients is also tested with the same data. Comparison of prediction approaches with direct measurements suggest room for improvement. Possible sources of error including tank reflections are estimated, and potential mitigation approaches are discussed.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2023

Physical Regime Sensitivity

Abstract This work presents a novel sensitivity approach that quantifies sensitivity to regimes of a model’s state variables rather than constitutive model parameters. This Physical Regime Sensitivity (PRS) determines which regimes of a model’s independent variables have the biggest influence on an experiment or application. PRS analysis is demonstrated on a strength model used in the simulation of a copper Taylor cylinder. In a series of simulations, the strength model was perturbed sequentially in local regimes of plastic strain, plastic strain rate, temperature and pressure, and then the prediction of cylinder shape was compared to unperturbed calculations. Results show, for example, that the deformed length of the cylinder was most sensitive to strength at a strain rate of 1.0 × 10 4 /sec., but the deformed footprint radius was most sensitive to strength at a strain rate of about 4.0 × 10 4 /sec. Compared to current histogram approaches, PRS can be used to design or interpret integrated experiments by identifying not just which regimes are accessed somewhere in the experiment but the causality question of which regimes actually affect the measured data. PRS should allow one to focus experimental and modeling efforts where they are most needed and to better interpret experiments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Implementation of a realistic artificial data generator for crash data generation

In this paper, a framework is outlined to generate realistic artificial data (RAD) as a tool for comparing different models developed for safety analysis. The primary focus of transportation safety analysis is on identifying and quantifying the influence of factors contributing to traffic crash occurrence and its consequences. The current framework of comparing model structures using only observed data has limitations. With observed data, it is not possible to know how well the models mimic the true relationship between the dependent and independent variables. Further, real datasets do not allow researchers to evaluate the model performance for different levels of complexity of the dataset. RAD offers an innovative framework to address these limitations. Hence, we propose a RAD generation framework embedded with heterogeneous causal structures that generates crash data by considering crash occurrence as a trip level event impacted by trip level factors, demographics, roadway and vehicle attributes. Within our RAD generator we employ three specific modules: (a) disaggregate trip information generation, (b) crash data generation and (c) crash data aggregation. For disaggregate trip information generation, we employ a daily activity-travel realization for an urban region generated from an established activity-based model for the Chicago region. We use this data of more than 2 million daily trips to generate a subset of trips with crash data. For trips with crashes crash location, crash type, driver/vehicle characteristics, and crash severity. The daily RAD generation process is repeated for generating crash records at yearly or multi-year resolution. In conclusion, the crash databases generated can be employed to compare frequency models, severity models, crash type and various other dimensions by facility type - possibly establishing a universal benchmarking system for alternative model frameworks in safety literature.

42 ENGINEERING↗