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At least 667 records · Page 37

Changes in Convective Available Potential Energy and Convective Inhibition under Global Warming

Atmospheric convective available potential energy (CAPE) is expected to increase under greenhouse gas–induced global warming, but a recent regional study also suggests enhanced convective inhibition (CIN) over land although its cause is not well understood. In this study, a global climate model is first evaluated by comparing its CAPE and CIN with reanalysis data, and then their future changes and the underlying causes are examined. The climate model reasonably captures the present-day CAPE and CIN patterns seen in the reanalysis, and projects increased CAPE almost everywhere and stronger CIN over most land under global warming. Over land, the cases or times with medium to strong CAPE or CIN would increase while cases with weak CAPE or CIN would decrease, leading to an overall strengthening in their mean values. These projected changes are confirmed by convection-permitting 4-km model simulations over the United States. The CAPE increase results mainly from increased low-level specific humidity, which leads to more latent heating and buoyancy for a lifted parcel above the level of free convection (LFC) and also a higher level of neutral buoyancy. The enhanced CIN over most land results mainly from reduced low-level relative humidity (RH), which leads to a higher lifting condensation level and a higher LFC and thus more negative buoyancy. Over tropical oceans, the near-surface RH increases slightly, leading to slight weakening of CIN. Over the subtropical eastern Pacific and Atlantic Ocean, the impact of reduced low-level atmospheric lapse rates overshadows the effect of increased specific humidity, leading to decreased CAPE.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Lidar-Based Evaluation of HRRR Performance in California’s Diablo Range

The performance of the NOAA High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model for capturing low-level winds near a wind energy production site during summer 2019 is evaluated. This study catalogs the ability of HRRR to predict boundary layer dynamics relevant to wind energy interests over complex terrain, which has presented challenges for weather and energy forecasting. Performance is evaluated by comparing HRRR output to wind-profiling Doppler lidars at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Site 300. HRRR captured the diurnal profile of horizontal winds in the observed 150-m layer, despite strong underpredictions (∼4 m s −1 ) during evening and nighttime hours. These underpredictions may be a result of local speedup flows observed by the lidars, which were unresolved in HRRR due to their small spatial extent. HRRR bias magnitude relative to observations was found to be minimal during days with synoptic-scale troughs and strong 850-hPa geopotential gradients, while bias magnitude was maximal during days with synoptic ridging and weak 850-hPa geopotential gradients. To translate wind speed predictions to energy forecasting, generic turbine models were used to estimate power generation for turbines characteristic of the nearby Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area. Results show that HRRR-based energy estimates predicted daytime power generation adequately relative to lidar-based estimates with an 18-h lead time (bias magnitude < 0.4 MW from 0900 to 1400 LT) but overpredicted power during the rest of the diurnal cycle (bias > 1 MW). These results demonstrate conditions under which HRRR performs well for wind energy applications in complex terrain, while highlighting biases that require further investigation to support usage of a high-resolution model for wind energy forecasts.

Boundary layer↗

Chemometrics and Experimental Design for the Quantification of Nitrate Salts in Nitric Acid: Near-Infrared Spectroscopy Absorption Analysis

Implementing remote, real-time spectroscopic monitoring of radiochemical processing streams in hot cell environments requires efficiency and simplicity. The success of optical spectroscopy for the quantification of species in chemical systems highly depends on representative training sets and suitable validation sets. Selecting a training set (i.e., calibration standards) to build multivariate regression models is both time- and resource-consuming using standard one-factor-at-a-time approaches. This study describes the use of experimental design to generate spectral training sets and a validation set for the quantification of sodium nitrate (0–1 M) and nitric acid (0.1–10 M) using the near-infrared water band centered at 1440 nm. Partial least squares regression models were built from training sets generated by both D- and I-optimal experimental designs and a one-factor-at-a-time approach. The prediction performance of each model was evaluated by comparing the bias and standard error of prediction for statistical significance. D- and I-optimal designs reduced the number of samples required to build regression models compared with one-factor-at-a-time while also improving performance. Models must be confirmed against a validation sample set when minimizing the number of samples in the training set. The D-optimal design performed the best when considering both performance and efficiency by improving predictive capability and reducing number of samples in the training set by 64% compared with the one-factor-at-a-time approach. The experimental design approach objectively selects calibration and validation spectral data sets based on statistical criterion to optimize performance and minimize resources.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Real-time well integrity monitoring in underground gas storage wells using distributed temperature and strain sensing: a field demonstration

Here, this article presents the first successful field demonstration of a combined distributed temperature and strain sensing (DTSS) system installed directly on newly replaced tubing in a 5400-ft-deep operational underground gas storage well. The DTSS system uses a single optical fiber to monitor temperature and strain in real-time, providing a cost-effective solution for long-term well integrity assessment. In this study, the strain–stress correlation of the tubing—representative of material behavior analysis—is investigated as a potential method for monitoring tubing integrity throughout its lifetime. Moreover, the DTSS system’s capability to support both continuous and discrete monitoring is evaluated by comparing future data with historical records, enabling the early detection of issues such as material fatigue, corrosion, or deformation. Overall, the work examines the effectiveness and scalability of the DTSS system for real-time monitoring of well operations and integrity in a newly replaced well.

Distributed Strain Sensing↗

Evaluation of the Tenti S6 model for hydrocarbon fuels at elevated temperatures using filtered Rayleigh scattering measurements

This Letter targets the assessment of the well-known Tenti S6 model for predicting the Rayleigh–Brillouin scattering (RBS) spectra of select gas–phase hydrocarbon fuels (CH 4 , C 2 H 2 , C 2 H 4 , C 3 H 8 , and C 4 H 10 ) over a temperature range of 300 to 700 K. The Tenti S6 model is evaluated by comparing filtered Rayleigh scattering (FRS) measurements to synthetic FRS signals generated from the combination of the Tenti S6 output and an accurate iodine absorption filter model. Here, the experimental and synthetic FRS results agree very well (<3% difference) over the full temperature range for CH 4 , C 2 H 2 , and C 2 H 4 , indicating accurate calculation of the RBS spectra. For C 3 H 8 and C 4 H 10 , there are some large differences between the experimental and synthetic FRS results which cannot be resolved through tuning of bulk viscosity, internal heat capacity, or inclusion of vibrational degrees of freedom, suggesting the need for detailed measurements of the Rayleigh–Brillouin spectra.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Longitudinal analysis of host protein serum signatures of treatment and recovery in pulmonary tuberculosis

A better understanding of treatment progression and recovery in pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) infectious disease is crucial. This study analyzed longitudinal serum samples from pulmonary TB patients undergoing interventional treatment to identify surrogate markers for TB-related outcomes. Serum that was collected at baseline and 8, 17, 26, and 52 weeks from 30 TB patients experiencing durable cure were evaluated and compared using a sensitive LC-MS/MS proteomic platform for the detection and quantification of differential host protein signatures relative to timepoint. The global proteome signature was analyzed for statistical differences across the time course and between disease severity and treatment groups. A total of 676 proteins showed differential expression in the serum over these timepoints relative to baseline. Comparisons to understand serum protein dynamics at 8 weeks, treatment endpoints at 17 and 26 weeks, and post-treatment at 52 weeks were performed. The largest protein abundance changes were observed at 8 weeks as the initial effects of antibiotic treatment strongly impacted inflammatory and immune modulated responses. However, the largest number of proteome changes was observed at the end of treatment time points 17 and 26 weeks respectively. Post-treatment 52-week results showed an abatement of differential proteome signatures from end of treatment, though interestingly those proteins uniquely significant at post-treatment were almost exclusively downregulated. Patients were additionally stratified based upon disease severity and compared across all timepoints, identifying 461 discriminating proteome signatures. These proteome signatures collapsed into discrete expression profiles with distinct pathways across immune activation and signaling, hemostasis, and metabolism annotations. Insulin-like growth factor (IGF) and Integrin signaling maintained a severity signature through 52 weeks, implying an intrinsic disease severity signature well into the post-treatment timeframe. Previous proteome studies have primarily focused on the 8-week timepoint in relation to culture conversion status. While this study confirms previous observations, it also highlights some differences. The inclusion of additional end of treatment and post-treatment time points offers a more comprehensive assessment of treatment progression within the serum proteome. Examining the expression dynamics at these later time periods will help in the investigation of relapse patients and has provided indicative markers of response and recovery.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Modelling the coupled mercury-halogen-ozone cycle in the central Arctic during spring

Near-surface mercury and ozone depletion events occur in the lowest part of the atmosphere during Arctic spring. Mercury depletion is the first step in a process that transforms long-lived elemental mercury to more reactive forms within the Arctic that are deposited to the cryosphere, ocean, and other surfaces, which can ultimately get integrated into the Arctic food web. Depletion of both mercury and ozone occur due to the presence of reactive halogen radicals that are released from snow, ice, and aerosols. In this work, we added a detailed description of the Arctic atmospheric mercury cycle to our recently published version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem 4.3.3) that includes Arctic bromine and chlorine chemistry and activation/recycling on snow and aerosols. The major advantage of our modelling approach is the online calculation of bromine concentrations and emission/recycling that is required to simulate the hourly and daily variability of Arctic mercury depletion. We used this model to study coupling between reactive cycling of mercury, ozone, and bromine during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) spring season in 2020 and evaluated results compared to land-based, ship-based, and remote sensing observations. The model predicts that elemental mercury oxidation is driven largely by bromine chemistry and that particulate mercury is the major form of oxidized mercury. The model predicts that the majority (74%) of oxidized mercury deposited to land-based snow is re-emitted to the atmosphere as gaseous elemental mercury, while a minor fraction (4%) of oxidized mercury that is deposited to sea ice is re-emitted during spring. Our work demonstrates that hourly differences in bromine/ozone chemistry in the atmosphere must be considered to capture the springtime Arctic mercury cycle, including its integration into the cryosphere and ocean.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Leaf-scale carbon assimilation simulated by the multi-assumption architecture & testbed for process sensitivity analysis

Raw and processed output from the Multi-Assumption Architecture & Testbed (MAAT, https://github.com/walkeranthonyp/MAAT, tag: v1.2.1_walker2020; Walker et al., 2018). The dataset contains leaf-scale carbon assimilation data from three MAAT simulations and their post-processing and plotting scripts. Simulation 1, labelled "FvC_4proc_proc," is a four-process, process sensitivity analysis (Dai et al., 2017) of carbon assimilation based on the Farquhar et al. (1980) photosynthesis model, and its variant proposed by Collatz et al. (1991). Simulation 2, labelled "FvC_4proc_salt," is a 14 parameter sensitivity analysis (Saltelli et al., 2010) of carbon assimilation based on the Farquhar and Collatz photosynthesis models. Simulation 3, labelled "FvC," is a factorial combination of the alternative process representations and parameter values presented in those original papers across a factorial combination of incident photosynthetically active radiation (50-2000 µmol m-2 s-1, in increments of 50) and atmospheric CO2 concentration (50-1500 µmol m-2 s-1, in increments of 50). Additional scripts/functions for post-processing and plotting are part of the MAAT repository. These data were generated to evaluate and compare the Farquhar and Collatz models of leaf-scale photosynthesis across a range of CO2 and incident light conditions. Analysis of results can be found in Walker et al. (2020). This dataset is comprised of R scripts to process data and produce figures; .RDS files, a binary format specific to R and read with the 'readRDS' function, to store raw MAAT output; R and bash scripts (.bs) that help to run a MAAT simulation, .XML files that are output from MAAT describing a run, and .csv files which contain the calculated sensitivity indexes published in Walker et al. (2020).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Benchmarking and Improving Microbial-explicit Soil Biogeochemistry Models

Soils represent the largest terrestrial carbon pool on Earth. Yet emerging theories regarding stabilization of soil organic matter remain poorly represented in global-scale models; thus, underestimating the true uncertainty associated with potential terrestrial carbon cycle – climate feedbacks. With this project we created a testbed to compare and evaluate soil biogeochemical models (W. Wieder at the Univ. of CO, Boulder), data synthesis (R. Phillips, Indiana Univ.) and parameter estimation (S Allison, Univ. CA Irvine) to quantify uncertainty associated with potential soil C changes. This project resulted in 14 Presentations, 14 Publications and helped support the training of three graduate students. A significant accomplishment with this work was the creation of a soil biogeochemical testbed, which forces three soil carbon models (CASA, MIMICS, and CORPSE) with common environmental drivers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A simple hydride model for cerium ejecta particles

Cerium ejecta particles form after a shock wave impacts a cerium plate with a known roughness or prescribed surface perturbation. When these particles are ejected into hydrogen or deuterium gas the material reacts exothermically and raises the temperature of the particle relative to the gas. A simple model is developed, assuming that the particle remains intact and spherical, to capture the heat and mass transfer that occurs during this process. Model performance is evaluated by comparing with cerium ejecta experiments where the particles are ejected into deuterium gas at initial pressures of 4 and 8 atm. Overall, the model is able to capture the approximately 400 K increase in particle temperature above the surrounding gas temperature.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The Polar System Analysis Package (Ver. 1 Specifications)

The Polar System Analysis Package (POLeSTAr) is a modern data fusion tool being designed to benchmark,evaluate and compare the polar physics and biogeochemistry of Earth System Models (ESMs). It is being written in Python to make use of libraries including Xarray, Matplotlib, SciPy, NumPy and PyTorch within algorithms developed specifically for polar system modeling. Initial POLeSTAr algorithms will be adapted from the MATLAB Ridgepack package that was designed to analyze the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) sea ice component of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and sea ice model CICE within the Community Earth System Model (CESM).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Study of Additive Manufacturing Applications to Geothermal Technologies Final Project Report

This report summarizes work performed to assess the potential for utilizing additive manufacturing (AM) to substantially improve either the availability, performance or cost basis for tools and components that are required for geothermal energy production. A systematic cataloging of geothermal activities, associated technologies, and current manufacturing methods was first undertaken. This included literature reviews as well as interviews with subject matter experts, service companies and OEMs. An industry workshop was held as part of this portion of the project to obtain input and concerns from a broad range of OEMs, service providers and end users. This workshop was also used to gage the current level of AM activity in industry, receptiveness to the use of AM manufactured parts, and any up front concerns that may exist. A summary of the workshop is presented in this report. Representative components and assemblies and their current manufacturing methods were then analyzed by additive manufacturing experts at a company called Senvol to determine the feasibility and required steps for producing parts by additive manufacturing. A step by step description of conventional manufacturing of the parts was also performed to establish a manufacturing baseline for comparison purposes. This analysis also considered and described the benefits of additively manufacturing the parts in terms of specific AM systems, material availability for AM, dimensional requirements and potential economic advantages. Details of the manufacturability assessment were summarized in a report which is included as a chapter in this document. The analysis of the AM subject matter experts was then be used by techno-economic analysts to perform a comparative economic evaluation of the manufacturing of select technologies by AM and conventional approaches. This activity leveraged ORNL expertise and prior experience in other applications. A framework based on assessing cost, volume production considerations, and time to manufacture was created to more easily discern the advantages or disadvantages of additive versus conventional manufacturing methods. The report concludes with a general assessment of the current applicability of AM for geothermal technologies, AM gaps and needs related to typical geothermal hardware, and the potential benefits and impacts of AM to geothermal energy production.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

High-Temperature Particle Heat Exchanger for sCO2 Power Cycles [Award 30342]

This report describes the design, development, and testing of a prototype 100 kWt particle-to-supercritical CO 2 (sCO2) heat exchanger. An analytic hierarchy process was implemented to compare and evaluate alternative heat-exchanger designs (fluidized bed, shell-and-plate moving packed bed, and shell-and-tube moving packed bed) that could meet the high pressure (≥ 20 MPa) and high temperature (≥ 700 °C) operational requirements associated with sCO2 power cycles. Cost, heat-transfer coefficient, structural reliability, manufacturability, parasitics and heat losses, scalability, compatibility, erosion and corrosion, transient operation, and inspection ease were considered in the evaluation. A 100 kWt shell-and-plate design was selected for construction and integration with Sandia’s falling particle receiver system that heats the particles using concentrated sunlight. Sandia worked with industry to design and construct the moving packed-bed shell-and-plate heat exchanger. Tests were performed to evaluate its performance using both electrical heating and concentrated sunlight to heat the particles. Overall heat transfer coefficients at off-design conditions (reduced operating temperatures and only three stainless steel banks in the counter-crossflow heat exchanger) were measured to be approximately ~25 - 70 W/m 2 -K, significantly lower than simulated values of >100 W/m 2 -K. Tests using the falling particle receiver to heat the particles with concentrated sunlight yielded overall heat transfer coefficients of ~35 – 80 W/m 2 -K with four banks (including a nickel-alloy bank above the three stainless steel banks). The overall heat transfer coefficient was observed to decrease with increasing particle inlet temperatures, which contrasted the results of simulations that showed an increase in heat transfer coefficient with temperature due to increased effective particle-bed thermal conductivity from radiation. The likely cause of the discrepancy was particle-flow maldistributions and funnel flow within the heat exchanger caused by internal ledges and cross-bracing, which could have been exacerbated by increased particle-wall friction at higher temperatures. Additional heat loss at higher temperatures may also contribute to a lower overall heat-transfer coefficient. Design challenges including pressure drop, particle and sCO2 flow maldistribution, and reduced heat transfer coefficient are discussed with approaches for mitigation in future designs. Lessons learned regarding instrumentation, performance characterization, and operation of particle components and sCO2 flow loops are also discussed. Finally, a 200 MWt commercial-scale shell-and-plate heat-exchanger design based on the concepts investigated in this report is proposed.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A simple hydride model for cerium ejecta particles

Cerium ejecta particles form after a shock wave impacts a cerium plate with a known roughness or prescribed surface perturbation. When these particles are ejected into hydrogen or deuterium gas the material reacts exothermically and raises the temperature of the particle relative to the gas. A simple model is developed, assuming that the particle remains intact and spherical, to capture the heat and mass transfer that occurs during this process. Model performance is evaluated by comparing with cerium ejecta experiments where the particles are ejected into deuterium gas at initial pressures of 4 and 8 atm. Overall, the model is able to capture the approximately 400 K increase in particle temperature above the surrounding gas temperature.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Cost Impacts of Risk-Based Methods for Defining AoR and PISC Duration of a CO 2 Storage Project Using NRAP Tools and FE/NETL CO 2 Saline Storage Cost Model

The purpose of this analysis is to assess the fiscal impact of using risk-based methods to define the area of review (AoR) and post-injection site care (PISC) duration for a geologic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) storage project. The Office of Fossil Energy (FE)/National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) CO 2 Saline Storage Cost Model (“cost model”) was utilized to evaluate CO 2 storage economics in this study. The cost model is a widely used tool for evaluating CO 2 storage costs in geologic settings. It estimates costs for storage operations conducted under compliance to the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Underground Injection Control (UIC) Class VI regulations. This analysis evaluates and compares the costs of storage (on a first-year break-even dollar per tonne [2018$] basis) at the proposed FutureGen 2.0 site as a case study storage location by implementing different approaches to determine AoR and PISC given the prevailing geologic conditions and injection volume and duration considerations. The approaches include the use of 1) risk-based methods to define AoR and PISC duration, 2) an EPA-approved AoR and PISC documented in the FutureGen 2.0 UIC Class VI permit applications, and 3) cost model default settings that utilize uncertainty multipliers to estimate CO 2 plume and pressure front extent as part of AoR determination, as well as a 50-year PISC default. From all three sources, the AoR and PISC specified in the Class VI permit applications for FutureGen 2.0 were the largest and longest relative to the other two sources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Building Model Calibration: Validation of GridLAB-D Thermal Dynamics Modeling

This report investigates how well GridLAB-D’s house model characterizes the thermal dynamics of buildings given the overpredicted diurnal electric load swing observed in the Distribution System Operation with Transactive (DSO+T) study. This study seeks to validate GridLAB-D’s house model by calibrating it to data from the well-instrumented Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Lab Homes in Richland, WA. The datasets chosen included multiple pre-cooling and pre-heating testing periods where the indoor air temperature was allowed to float over a multi-hour length of time to mimic diurnal behavior. The multi-season calibrations were evaluated by comparing the heating/cooling electric power, indoor air temperature, and the rise/decay time during temperature float periods with Lab Homes data. The default GridLAB-D assumptions for latent load fraction, air heat capacity, mass heat capacity, window-to-wall-ratio, overall envelope conductance (assumed as NORMAL thermal integrity level), and solar heat gain coefficient were compared with the calibrated model to confirm when the default assumptions were adequate and the impact of calibration on the accuracy of modeling the thermal dynamics of homes.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Tailoring Redox Active Ligands for Probing the Reactivity of Actinides

With this project, we aim to further enhance our understanding of fundamental f-element chemistry, including electronic structure and bonding behaviors. Key project goals include the characterization of actinide complexes bearing redox-active ligands, including those of lower-oxidation state uranium, and examining how structural changes to the ligand and coordination sphere affect structure and bonding. Redox-active and redox non-innocent ligands have been used widely in transition metal chemistry, but uranium complexes with redox-active ligands are surprisingly rare. We recently reported the synthesis of the redox-active ligand, “phen-BIAN” (N,N’-bis(iminophenol)acenaphthene), in an investigation of the electronic behavior of uranium and other actinides. This ligand framework borrows features from two classes of Schiff base ligands—the tetradentate O-N-N-O binding pocket from salens, and the redox-active α-diimine unit and backbone from Ar-BIANs (N,N’-bis[(aryl)imino]acenaphthenes, which can accept up to four electrons upon reduction. To continue this work, the electronics of uranyl and thorium complexes will be probed using the reduced forms of these ligands, using these in the preparation of lower-oxidation state and non-oxo uranium complexes. Additional members of the phen-BIAN family will be synthesized, including naphthol and thiol derivative. With these we can characterize the influence of substitutent groups on the redox activity, coordination geometry, and covalent interactions. The work proposed here entails extensive preparation, structural and spectroscopic characterization, of an array of actinide complexes. This will allow us to address probative questions about the nature of actinide bonding, the degree of covalency, the validity of lanthanides as models for the actinides, hard-soft interactions, magnetic interactions between metals in bimetallic complexes and what combination of electronic and steric affects produce an actinide selective ligand. The latter will assist greatly in providing a benchmark against which to compare and evaluate the distinct behaviors exhibited by 5f-element complexes. This will enable us to learn about the differences in binding between the 4f lanthanides and the 5f elements like uranium and plutonium. Such difference in binding can be exploited in separations and the development of new materials.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Integration of Hybrids into Wholesale Power Markets

With growing commercial activity around utility-scale hybrid storage projects in the Unites States, independent system operators (ISOs) and regional transmission organizations (RTOs) are faced with making decisions on how to represent such emerging technology resources in the market clearing software through the definition of hybrid resource participation models. System operators are facing increasing uncertainties around efficient and reliable ways to operate these resources given the ambiguity around their impacts, particularly when high levels of hybrid resources are present. This study aimed to evaluate and compare the performance implications of different hybrid resource participation models in a realistic wholesale electricity market setting with significant deployment of hybrid resources, and to provide the industry with metrics that quantify the advantages and disadvantages of different participation options using realistic electricity market simulations. The different participation models are compared in terms of the impact to reliability of the overall system, the ability of the market to access the full capabilities of hybrid resources as measured by the economic efficiency, and asset profitability.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗