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At least 667 records · Page 37
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

First measurement of symmetric cumulants of hexagonal flow harmonics in Pb-Pb collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 5.02 TeV

Correlations between event-by-event fluctuations of anisotropic flow harmonics are measured in Pb-Pb collisions at a center-of-mass energy per nucleon pair of 5.02 TeV, as recorded by the ALICE detector at the LHC. This study presents correlations up to the hexagonal flow harmonic 𝑣 6 , which was measured for the first time. The magnitudes of these higher-order correlations are found to vary as a function of collision centrality and harmonic order. These measurements are compared to viscous hydrodynamic model calculations with EKRT initial conditions and to the iEBE-VISHNU model with T R ⁢ENTo initial conditions. The observed discrepancies between the data and the model calculations vary depending on the harmonic combinations. Due to the sensitivity of model parameters estimated with Bayesian analyses to these higher-order observables, the results presented in this work provide new and independent constraints on the initial conditions and transport properties in theoretical models used to describe the system created in heavy-ion collisions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Neutron Star Radii, Deformabilities, and Moments of Inertia from Experimental and Ab Initio Theory Constraints of the 208Pb Neutron Skin Thickness

Recent experimental and ab initio theory investigations of the 208Pb neutron skin thickness have the potential to inform the neutron star equation of state. In particular, the strong correlation between the 208Pb neutron skin thickness and the pressure of neutron matter at normal nuclear densities leads to modified predictions for the radii, tidal deformabilities, and moments of inertia of typical 1.4M⊙ neutron stars. In the present work, we study the relative impact of these recent analyses of the 208Pb neutron skin thickness on bulk properties of neutron stars within a Bayesian statistical analysis. Two models for the equation of state prior are employed in order to highlight the role of the highly uncertain high-density equation of state. From our combined Bayesian analysis of nuclear theory, nuclear experiment, and observational constraints on the dense matter equation of state, we find at the 90% credibility level R1.4=12.36−0.73+0.38 km for the radius of a 1.4M⊙ neutron star, R2.0=11.96−0.71+0.94 km for the radius of a 2.0M⊙ neutron star, Λ1.4=440−144+103 for the tidal deformability of a 1.4M⊙ neutron star, and I1.338=1.425−0.146+0.074×1045gcm2 for the moment of inertia of PSR J0737-3039A whose mass is 1.338M⊙.

Lim, Yeunhwan↗
DOE OSTI2025

Propagating synthetic populations with dynamic Bayesian networks: a framework for long-horizon demographic forecasting

This study presents a dynamic demographic microsimulator using dynamic Bayesian networks to forecast long–term changes in household and individual life events. Leveraging longitudinal Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) data, two networks for individuals and households were modeled to simulate transitions in employment, income, education, marriage, childbirth, leaving the parental home, home ownership, mortality, and household formation or dissolution. Across 1,000 simulation runs spanning 24 years, household–level outcomes remain highly accurate and individual–level predictions reasonable. Although accuracy naturally declines with projection horizon, performance remains promising at both levels. This study addresses a key limitation of existing population synthesis models, which typically generate only a single static snapshot of the population. In conclusion, by introducing a framework that propagates cross-sectional outputs into the future, the microsimulator enables the tracking of demographic evolution over time, enhances realism in population-based simulations, and supplies credible inputs to agent-based travel demand models.

Demographic modeling↗
DOE OSTI2021

A novel machine learning based identification of potential adopter of rooftop solar photovoltaics

With the proliferation of rooftop solar photovoltaic installations, there is a need to proactively predict consumer potential for solar photovoltaic adoption, for improved electric utility planning and operation. Traditional analytical modeling approaches are limited to a few survey features and a larger part of the survey would remain untouched by the decision model. This article presents a novel, data-driven modeling approach that strategically prunes a large set of consumer profile features using a machine learning framework to train a model for predicting potential solar adoption. The approach utilizes the Gradient Boosting Decision Tree model through a Light Gradient Boosting framework that improves significantly over the poor prediction accuracy of the existing approaches. Model training using focal-loss based supervision is used to overcome the difficulty in identifying the potential adopters that is inherent in conventional data-driven models. In addition, to overcome possible data sparsity in a limited survey sample, a Generative Adversarial Network is presented to create synthetic user samples and its effectiveness on model performance is assessed. A Bayesian optimization approach is used to systematically arrive at the hyperparameters of the proposed model. Validation of the presented approach on a survey data collected by the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association in Virginia in 2018 demonstrates the excellent predictive capability of the machine learning based approach to modeling solar adoption reliably.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian Inference for Integrating Yarrowia lipolytica Multiomics Datasets with Metabolic Modeling

Optimizing the metabolism of microbial cell factories for yields and titers is a critical step for economically viable production of bioproducts and biofuels. In this process, tuning the expression of individual enzymes to obtain the desired pathway flux is a challenging step, in which data from separate multiomics techniques must be integrated with existing biological knowledge to determine where changes should be made. Following a design-build-test-learn strategy, building on recent advances in Bayesian metabolic control analysis, we identify in this work key enzymes in the oleaginous yeast Yarrowia lipolytica that correlate with the production of itaconate by integrating a metabolic model with multiomics measurements. To this extent, we quantify the uncertainty for a variety of key parameters, known as flux control coefficients (FCCs), needed to improve the bioproduction of target metabolites and statistically obtain key correlations between the measured enzymes and boundary flux. Based on the top five significant FCCs and five correlated enzymes, our results show phosphoglycerate mutase, acetyl-CoA synthetase (ACSm), carbonic anhydrase (HCO3E), pyrophosphatase (PPAm), and homoserine dehydrogenase (HSDxi) enzymes in rate-limiting reactions that can lead to increased itaconic acid production.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Mass of 101 Sn and Bayesian extrapolations to the proton drip line

The favorable energy configurations of nuclei at magic numbers of 𝑁 neutrons and 𝑍 protons are fundamental for understanding the evolution of nuclear structure. The 𝑍 = 50 (tin) isotopic chain is a frontier for such studies, with particular interest at and around the doubly magic 100 Sn isotope, for which the mass is a topic of debate. Precise mass values for neutron-deficient isotopes provide necessary anchor points for mass models to test extrapolations near the proton drip line, where experimental studies remain out of reach. In this work, we report a Penning trap mass measurement of 101 Sn . The determined mass excess of −59889.89⁢(96) keV for 101 Sn represents a factor-of-300 improvement over the current precision and indicates that 101 Sn is less bound than previously thought. Mass predictions from a recently developed Bayesian model combination framework employing statistical machine learning and nuclear masses computed within seven global models based on nuclear density functional theory agree within 1⁢𝜎 with experimental masses from the 48 ≤ 𝑍 ≤ 52 isotopic chains. The framework's resilience to new mass data gave confidence in the extrapolation of tin masses down to 𝑁 = 46. Our calculations suggest that 96 Sn is a two-proton drip line nucleus and predict a mass excess of −58090⁢(800) keV for 100 Sn , showing a preference within 1⁢𝜎 for the mass of 100 Sn derived from the 𝛽-delayed 𝑄 value measured at GSI.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Application of a Geochemically Informed Leak Detection (GILD) Model to CO 2 Injection Sites on the United States Gulf Coast

The Gulf Coast region possesses great potential for CO 2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR) and CO 2 storage. A geochemically informed leak detection (GILD) model has been applied to CO 2 injection sites on the Gulf Coast with considerations of measurement variability. The Jasper aquifer in Montgomery County, Texas, was chosen to demonstrate the method. Based on background data from wells in the area, combinations of mineral and fluid compositions were used to create 23 scenarios for the geochemical model. The output from the geochemical model was used to identify sensitive monitoring species, and response functions were generated for these as a function of the CO 2 leakage concentration. The sources of measurement variability for background conditions were characterized from the Jasper aquifer background data, and then normalized using the coefficient of variation of each species across the monitoring wells. Bayesian belief network (BBN) models were constructed, and measurement variability of different levels were added to compare leak detection probabilities. Increasing measurement variability decreased the power to detect a leak of a given size. For a moderately high CO 2 concentration of 0.2 mol/kg, the probability of detecting this leakage effect using pH as the monitoring variable in an aquifer with calcite decreases from 98% (no measurement variability) to 61% (medium variability) to 33% (high variability). The loss in power of the sampling protocol with increasing measurement variability is similar in magnitude when Ca 2+ or HCO 3 - is used as the monitoring parameter, but only for aquifers with calcite.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

PyOED: An Extensible Suite for Data Assimilation and Model-Constrained Optimal Design of Experiments

This article describes PyOED, a highly extensible scientific package that enables developing and testing model-constrained optimal experimental design (OED) for inverse problems. Specifically, PyOED aims to be a comprehensive Python toolkit for model-constrained OED. The package targets scientists and researchers interested in understanding the details of OED formulations and approaches. It is also meant to enable researchers to experiment with standard and innovative OED technologies with a wide range of test problems (e.g., simulation models). OED, inverse problems (e.g., Bayesian inversion), and data assimilation (DA) are closely related research fields, and their formulations overlap significantly. Thus, PyOED is continuously being expanded with a plethora of Bayesian inversion, DA, and OED methods as well as new scientific simulation models, observation error models, and observation operators. These pieces are added such that they can be permuted to enable testing OED methods in various settings of varying complexities. The PyOED core is completely written in Python and utilizes the inherent object-oriented capabilities; however, the current version of PyOED is meant to be extensible rather than scalable. Specifically, PyOED is developed to “enable rapid development and benchmarking of OED methods with minimal coding effort and to maximize code reutilization.” This article provides a brief description of the PyOED layout and philosophy and provides a set of exemplary test cases and tutorials to demonstrate the potential of the package.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization Approach Using the Weighted Tchebycheff Method

Abstract Bayesian optimization (BO) is a low-cost global optimization tool for expensive black-box objective functions, where we learn from prior evaluated designs, update a posterior surrogate Gaussian process model, and select new designs for future evaluation using an acquisition function. This research focuses upon developing a BO model with multiple black-box objective functions. In the standard multi-objective (MO) optimization problem, the weighted Tchebycheff method is efficiently used to find both convex and non-convex Pareto frontiers. This approach requires knowledge of utopia values before we start optimization. However, in the BO framework, since the functions are expensive to evaluate, it is very expensive to obtain the utopia values as a prior knowledge. Therefore, in this paper, we develop a MO-BO framework where we calibrate with multiple linear regression (MLR) models to estimate the utopia value for each objective as a function of design input variables; the models are updated iteratively with sampled training data from the proposed MO-BO. These iteratively estimated mean utopia values are used to formulate the weighted Tchebycheff MO acquisition function. The proposed approach is implemented in two numerical test examples and one engineering design problem of optimizing thin tube geometries under constant loading of temperature and pressure, with minimizing the risk of creep-fatigue failure and design cost, along with risk-based and manufacturing constraints. Finally, the model accuracy with frequentist, Bayesian and without MLR-based calibration are compared to true Pareto solutions.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2022

Parameter Calibration for Johnson Cook and Preston-Tonks-Wallace Material Strength Models with Uncertainty Quantification

In this study we perform a Bayesian calibration of the parameters in the Johnson Cook (JC) material strength model, with uncertainty, using experiments with for a range of low and medium strain rates. For the parameter calibration, we used a variational Bayesian approach with experimental data from Hopkinson bar and quasi-static tests done on Oxygen Free High Conductivity (OFHC) copper. The estimated parameter values matched well with experimental data for a modest range of strain rates and temperatures. Through this method, we also recovered uncertainty and correlation information for the estimated parameter values. We also compared our results to a calibration of parameters in the Preston-Tonks-Wallace (PTW) material strength model, using the same variational Bayesian method. The parameters estimated for both models provided good agreement with the experimental data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Deep Learning and Likelihood Approaches for Viral Phylogeography Converge on the Same Answers Whether the Inference Model Is Right or Wrong

Abstract Analysis of phylogenetic trees has become an essential tool in epidemiology. Likelihood-based methods fit models to phylogenies to draw inferences about the phylodynamics and history of viral transmission. However, these methods are often computationally expensive, which limits the complexity and realism of phylodynamic models and makes them ill-suited for informing policy decisions in real-time during rapidly developing outbreaks. Likelihood-free methods using deep learning are pushing the boundaries of inference beyond these constraints. In this paper, we extend, compare, and contrast a recently developed deep learning method for likelihood-free inference from trees. We trained multiple deep neural networks using phylogenies from simulated outbreaks that spread among 5 locations and found they achieve close to the same levels of accuracy as Bayesian inference under the true simulation model. We compared robustness to model misspecification of a trained neural network to that of a Bayesian method. We found that both models had comparable performance, converging on similar biases. We also implemented a method of uncertainty quantification called conformalized quantile regression that we demonstrate has similar patterns of sensitivity to model misspecification as Bayesian highest posterior density (HPD) and greatly overlap with HPDs, but have lower precision (more conservative). Finally, we trained and tested a neural network against phylogeographic data from a recent study of the SARS-Cov-2 pandemic in Europe and obtained similar estimates of region-specific epidemiological parameters and the location of the common ancestor in Europe. Along with being as accurate and robust as likelihood-based methods, our trained neural networks are on average over 3 orders of magnitude faster after training. Our results support the notion that neural networks can be trained with simulated data to accurately mimic the good and bad statistical properties of the likelihood functions of generative phylogenetic models.

Evolutionary Biology↗
DOE OSTI2023

An asynchronous parallel high-throughput model calibration framework for crystal plasticity finite element constitutive models

Crystal plasticity finite element model (CPFEM) is a powerful numerical simulation in the integrated computational materials engineering toolboxes that relates microstructures to homogenized materials properties and establishes the structure–property linkages in computational materials science. However, to establish the predictive capability, one needs to calibrate the underlying constitutive model, verify the solution and validate the model prediction against experimental data. Bayesian optimization (BO) has stood out as a gradient-free efficient global optimization algorithm that is capable of calibrating constitutive models for CPFEM. Here in this paper, we apply a recently developed asynchronous parallel constrained BO algorithm to calibrate phenomenological constitutive models for stainless steel 304 L, Tantalum, and Cantor high-entropy alloy.

304L stainless steel↗
DOE OSTI2020

Calibration of hyperelastic constitutive models: the role of boundary conditions, search algorithms, and experimental variability

The calibration of hyperelastic constitutive models of soft tissue and tissue surrogates is often treated as an exercise in curve-fitting to the average experimental response, and many of the complicating factors such as experimental boundary conditions and data variability are ignored. Here, we focus on three questions that arise in this area: the ramifications of ignoring the experimental boundary conditions, the use of local optimizers, and the role of data variability. Using data from a uniaxial extension experiment on a tissue surrogate, we study how these three factors affect the calibration of isotropic hyperelastic constitutive models. Our results show that even with the simplest of constitutive models, it is necessary to look beyond a "good fit" to the average.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Probabilistic Calibration of Expensive Models using Efficiently Trained Surrogates

Calibration of computational models in the presence of uncertainty is often cast as a Bayesian inference problem and solved via sampling methods, e.g., Markov chain Monte Carlo. When the computational model is expensive, this task becomes intractable due to the large number of samples required to accurately estimate the posterior distribution of the calibration parameters. A popular solution to this problem is to use machine learning to develop a faster-to-evaluate, lower-fidelity substitute for the original model to serve as a surrogate while solving the inference problem. Although considered an offline cost, generating training data to construct this surrogate model can still be an expensive task in practice. An active learning algorithm is presented that focuses training on improving surrogate accuracy specifically in and around the bulk of the posterior distribution, as this is where the model is exercised during calibration. Candidate samples are drawn from families of distributions related to an approximation of the posterior. The sample maximizing predictive variance is then selected for evaluation by the original computational model, yielding a label for the training point. Iterating this approach increases efficiency relative to space filling designs (e.g., Latin hypercube sampling) by avoiding low probability points. Practical considerations are discussed, including the benefits of using a sequential Monte Carlo sampling approach, convergence heuristics, and the importance of both exploration and exploitation given that the true posterior is unknown a priori.

uncertainty quantification↗
DOE OSTI2026

Neural Posterior Estimation for Scalable and Accurate Inverse Parameter Inference in Li-Ion Batteries

Diagnosing the internal state of Li-ion batteries is critical for battery research, operation of real-world systems, and prognostic evaluation of remaining lifetime. By using physics-based models to perform probabilistic parameter estimation via Bayesian calibration, diagnostics can account for the uncertainty due to model fitness, data noise, and the observability of any given parameter. However, Bayesian calibration in Li-ion batteries using electrochemical data is computationally intensive even when using a fast surrogate in place of physics-based models, requiring many thousands of model evaluations. A fully amortized alternative is neural posterior estimation (NPE). NPE shifts the computational burden from the parameter estimation step to data generation and model training, reducing the parameter estimation time from minutes to milliseconds, enabling real-time applications. The present work shows that NPE can infer parameters equally or more accurately than Bayesian calibration, even if it leads to higher voltage reconstruction errors. We also demonstrate that the higher computational costs for data generation are tractable even in high-dimensional cases (ranging from 6 to 27 estimated parameters). The NPE method also offers several interpretability advantages over Bayesian calibration, such as local parameter sensitivity to specific regions of the voltage curve. The NPE method is demonstrated using an experimental fast charge dataset, with parameter estimates validated against measurements of loss of lithium inventory and loss of active material. The implementation is made available in a companion repository (https://github.com/NatLabRockies/BatFIT).

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Autonomous sputter synthesis of thin film nitrides with composition controlled by Bayesian optimization of optical plasma emission

Autonomous experimentation has emerged as an efficient approach to accelerate the pace of material discovery. Although instruments for autonomous synthesis have become popular in molecular and polymer science, solution processing of hybrid materials, and nanoparticles, examples of autonomous tools for physical vapor deposition are scarce yet important for the semiconductor industry. Here, we report the design and implementation of an autonomous workflow for sputter deposition of thin films with controlled composition, leveraging a highly automated sputtering reactor custom-controlled by Python, optical emission spectroscopy (OES), and a Bayesian optimization algorithm. We modeled film composition, measured by x-ray fluorescence, as a linear function of plasma emission lines monitored during co-sputtering from elemental Zn and Ti targets in an N 2 and Ar atmosphere. A Bayesian control algorithm, informed by OES, navigates the space of sputtering power to fabricate films with user-defined compositions by minimizing the absolute error between desired and measured optical emission signals. We validated our approach by autonomously fabricating Zn x Ti 1-x N y films that deviate from the targeted cation composition by a relative ±3.5%, even for 15 nm thin films, demonstrating that the proposed approach can reliably synthesize thin films with a specific composition and minimal human interference. Moreover, the proposed method can be extended to more difficult synthesis experiments where plasma intensity lines depend non-linearly on pressure, or the elemental sticking coefficients strongly depend on the substrate temperature.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Soft-hard framework with exact four-momentum conservation for small systems

A new framework, called x-scape, for the combined study of both hard and soft transverse momentum sectors in high-energy proton-proton (𝑝−𝑝) and proton-nucleus (𝑝−𝐴) collisions is set up. A dynamical initial state is set up using the 3d-Glauber model with transverse locations of hotspots within each incoming nucleon. A hard scattering that emanates from two colliding hotspots is carried out using the Pythia generator. Initial state radiation from the incoming hard partons is carried out in a new module called I-matter, which includes the longitudinal location of initial splits. The energy-momentum of both the initial hard partons and their associated beam remnants is removed from the hot spots, depleting the energy-momentum available for the formation of the bulk medium. Outgoing showers are simulated using the matter generator, and results are presented for both cases, allowing for and not allowing for energy loss. First comparisons between this hard-soft model and single inclusive hadron and jet data from 𝑝−𝑝 and minimum bias 𝑝−Pb collisions are presented. Single hadron spectra in 𝑝−𝑝 are used to carry out a limited (in number of parameters) Bayesian calibration of the model. Fair comparisons with data are indicative of the utility of this new framework. Theoretical studies of the correlation between jet 𝑝 𝑇 and event activity at mid and forward rapidity are carried out.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗