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At least 667 records · Page 37

Looking up, down, and sideways: Reconceiving cumulative effects assessment as a mindset

Despite all the effort that has gone into defining, researching and establishing best practices for cumulative effects assessment (CEA), understanding remains weak and practice wanting. At one extreme of implementation, CEA can be described as merely an irritant to the completion of a project-specific environmental assessment (EA). At the other extreme, the conceptual view is that all effects in EA should be deemed cumulative unless demonstrated otherwise. Our purpose here is to consider how we might reconceive CEA as a mindset that is at the heart of absolutely every assessment of valued ecosystem component (VEC) to ensure that we understand the relative contributions of various stressors and can decide when cumulative effects may foreclose future activities due to impacts on VECs. Conceptually, we ground the CEA mindset in the context of three lenses that must all be functioning and working together for the mindset to be operative: a technical lens; a law and policy lens; and a participatory lens. Our arguments are based on a review of the CEA, strategic effects assessment (SEA) and regional effects assessment literatures, an examination and consideration of Canadian EA and SEA case practice, and our combined professional experiences. Through using the Bay of Fundy in Canada as a case example, we establish the concept of the CEA mindset and an approach for moving forward with implementation. - Highlights: • Conceptualization of cumulative effects assessment as a mindset. • Elaboration of technical, law and policy and participation lenses critical to CEA • Coordination and integration of cumulative effects for valued ecosystem components • Application in Bay of Fundy ecosystem and terrestrial watershed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Cross-border cooperation in inner Scandinavia: A territorial impact assessment

The use of territorial impact assessment procedures is gaining increasing relevance in the European Union policy evaluation processes. However, no concrete territorial impact assessment tools have been applied to evaluating EU cross-border programmes. In this light, this article provides a pioneering analysis on how to make use of territorial impact assessment procedures on cross-border programmes. More specifically, it assesses the main territorial impacts of the Inner Scandinavian INTERREG-A sub-programme, in the last 20 years (1996–2016). It focuses on its impacts on reducing the barrier effect, in all its main dimensions, posed by the presence of the administrative border. The results indicate a quite positive impact of the analysed cross-border cooperation programme, in reducing the barrier effect in all its main dimensions. The obtained potential impact values for each analysed dimension indicate, however, that the ‘economy-technology’ dimension was particularly favoured, following its strategic intervention focus in stimulating the economic activity and the attractiveness of the border area. - Highlights: • A territorial impact assessment method to assess cross-border cooperation is proposed. • This method rationale is based on the main dimensions of the barrier effect. • This method identified positive impacts in all analysed dimensions. • The economy-technological dimension was the most positively impacted one.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Healthcare Building Sustainability Assessment tool - Sustainable Effective Design criteria in the Portuguese context

Tools and methods to improve current practices and quality in the healthcare building sector are necessary to support decision-making at different building life cycle phases. Furthermore, Healthcare Building Sustainability Assessment (HBSA) Methods are based on criteria organised into different levels, such as categories and indicators. These criteria highlight aspects of significant importance when designing and operating a sustainable healthcare building. To bring more objectivity to the sustainability assessments, the standardisation bodies (CEN and ISO) proposed core indicators that should be used in the evaluation of the environmental, societal and economic performances of buildings. Nevertheless, relying on state of the art analysis, it is possible to conclude that there are aspects of major importance for the operation of healthcare buildings that are not considered in the HBSA methods. Thus, the aim of this paper is to discuss the context of sustainability assessment methods in the field of healthcare buildings and to present a proposal for the incorporation of Sustainable-Effective Design (SED) criteria in a new HBSA method. The used research method is innovative since in the development of the list of sustainability criteria it considers the opinion of main healthcare buildings' stakeholders, the existing healthcare assessment methods and the ISO and CEN standardisation works in the field of the methods to assess the sustainability of construction works. As a result, the proposed method is composed of fifty-two sustainability indicators that cover the different dimensions of the sustainability concept to support decision making during the design of a new or retrofitted healthcare building in urban areas. - Highlights: •A new system to assess the sustainability of healthcare buildings is presented. •We propose a method to develop the list of sustainability indicators for hospitals. •We propose a new concept – Sustainable-Effective Design (SED). •The system is adapted to the Portuguese building sector sustainability contexts. •The approach can be used to develop similar systems in other countries.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Implementing next generation assessment: A case example of a global challenge

IA regime design has evolved significantly over the past 50 years. Current thinking includes a package of next generation approaches such as the incorporation of requirements for regional and strategic IA, the consideration of cumulative effects and alternatives, and the inclusion of sustainability criteria and trade-off rules for decision makers. These suggested changes to IA design largely come from the recognition, through experience, of the weaknesses with current IA laws and regulations and needs to accommodate new understandings, for example about sustainability and complexity. Here, we reiterate the key generic components of next generation assessment that are broadly suitable for application in all jurisdictions with at least moderate assessment capacities, focusing on the necessary process requirements that could be captured in IA law, regulation and policy. Through an illustrative case example of Manitoba, Canada, we show how the components of next generation assessment might be implemented as a package in the context of an existing IA regime. Our application of these principles reveals the value of careful consideration of the current legislative frame as well as needs to cooperate with other jurisdictions. It shows, for example, the importance of experience with using streams of assessment and ensuring meaningful public participation. We conclude that many jurisdictions are likely to find moving consistently to this more comprehensive form of assessment to be a natural progression and that the greatest challenges will probably be in building interjurisdictional cooperation, ensuring good faith application of the sustainability criteria in decision making, and implementing regional and strategic assessments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Environmental impact assessment of online advertising

Highlights: • A practical framework for assessing the environmental impact of any Internet service • Online advertising consumed between 20.38 to 282.75 TWh of energy and 11.53 – 159.93 million tons of CO{sub 2}e was emitted to produce the electricity consumed. • Invalid traffic associated with online advertising resulted in 2.65 – 36.78 million tons of CO{sub 2}e emissions. • The energy burden of online advertising is considerable and urgently requires attention from researchers and industries. - Abstract: There are no commonly agreed ways to assess the total energy consumption of the Internet. Estimating the Internet's energy footprint is challenging because of the interconnectedness associated with even seemingly simple aspects of energy consumption. The first contribution of this paper is a common modular and layered framework, which allows researchers to assess both energy consumption and CO{sub 2}e emissions of any Internet service. The framework allows assessing the energy consumption depending on the research scope and specific system boundaries. Further, the proposed framework allows researchers without domain expertise to make such an assessment by using intermediate results as data sources, while analyzing the related uncertainties. The second contribution is an estimate of the energy consumption and CO{sub 2}e emissions of online advertising by utilizing our proposed framework. The third contribution is an assessment of the energy consumption of invalid traffic associated with online advertising. The second and third contributions are used to validate the first. The online advertising ecosystem resides in the core of the Internet, and it is the sole source of funding for many online services. Therefore, it is an essential factor in the analysis of the Internet's energy footprint. As a result, in 2016, online advertising consumed 20–282 TWh of energy. In the same year, the total infrastructure consumption ranged from 791 to 1334 TWh. With extrapolated 2016 input factor values without uncertainties, online advertising consumed 106 TWh of energy and the infrastructure 1059 TWh. With the emission factor of 0.5656 kg CO{sub 2}e/kWh, we calculated the carbon emissions of online advertising, and found it produces 60 Mt CO{sub 2}e (between 12 and 159 Mt of CO{sub 2}e when considering uncertainty). The share of fraudulent online advertising traffic was 13.87 Mt of CO{sub 2}e emissions (between 2.65 and 36.78 Mt of CO{sub 2}e when considering uncertainty). The global impact of online advertising is multidimensional. Online advertising affects the environment by consuming significant amounts of energy, leading to the production CO{sub 2}e emissions. Hundreds of billions of ad dollars are exchanged yearly, placing online advertising in a significant role economically. It has become an important and acknowledged component of the online-bound society, largely due to its integration with the Internet and the amount of revenue generated through it.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Reimagining the potential of Earth observations for ecosystem service assessments

The benefits nature provides to people, called ecosystem services, are increasingly recognized and accounted for in assessments of infrastructure development, agricultural management, conservation prioritization, and sustainable sourcing. These assessments are often limited by data, however, a gap with tremendous potential to be filled through Earth observations (EO), which produce a variety of data across spatial and temporal extents and resolutions. Despite widespread recognition of this potential, in practice few ecosystem service studies use EO. Here, we identify challenges and opportunities to using EO in ecosystem service modeling and assessment. Some challenges are technical, related to data awareness, processing, and access. These challenges require systematic investment in model platforms and data management. Other challenges are more conceptual but still systemic; they are byproducts of the structure of existing ecosystem service models and addressing them requires scientific investment in solutions and tools applicable to a wide range of models and approaches. We also highlight new ways in which EO can be leveraged for ecosystem service assessments, identifying promising new areas of research. More widespread use of EO for ecosystem service assessment will only be achieved if all of these types of challenges are addressed. Furthermore, this will require non-traditional funding and partnering opportunities from private and public agencies to promote data exploration, sharing, and archiving. Investing in this integration will be reflected in better and more accurate ecosystem service assessments worldwide.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Using social network and stakeholder analysis to help evaluate infectious waste management: A step towards a holistic assessment

Highlights: • Assessment of infectious waste management in Bangkok, in particular incineration. • Integration of social network and stakeholder analysis assessment methods. • Assessment of stakeholder characteristics, role, interaction and communication. • Interviewees self-evaluate their own characteristics and the system. • Non-technical aspects are important for system acceptability, and sustainability. - Abstract: Assessing the strengths and weaknesses of a solid waste management scheme requires an accurate analysis and integration of several determining features. In addition to the technical aspects, any such system shows a complex interaction of actors with varying stakes, decision-making power and influence, as well as a favourable or disabling environment. When capitalizing on the knowledge and experience from a specific case, it is also crucial that experts do not “forget” or underestimate the importance of such social determinants and that they are familiar with the methods and tools to assess them. Social network analysis (SNA) and stakeholder analysis (SA) methods can be successfully applied to better understand actors’ role and actions, analyse driving forces and existing coordination among stakeholders, as well as identify bottlenecks in communication which affect daily operations or strategic planning for the future way forward. SNA and SA, appropriately adjusted for a certain system, can provide a useful integration to methods by assessing other aspects to ensure a comprehensive picture of the situation. This paper describes how to integrate SNA and SA in order to survey a solid waste management system. This paper presents the results of an analysis of On-Nuch infectious waste incinerator in Bangkok, Thailand. Stakeholders were interviewed and asked to prioritize characteristics and relationships which they consider particularly important for system development and success of the scheme. In such a way, a large quantity of information about organization, communication between stakeholders and their perception about operation, environmental and health impact, and potential alternatives for the system was collected in a systematic way. The survey results suggest that stakeholders are generally satisfied with the system operation, though communication should be improved. Moreover, stakeholders should be strategically more involved in system development planning, according to their characteristics, to prevent negative reactions.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

A Prefire Approach for Probabilistic Assessments of Postfire Debris‐Flow Inundation

Increases in wildfire activity and rainfall intensification are driving more postfire debris flows (PFDF) in many regions around the world. PFDFs are most common in the first postfire year and may even occur before a fire is fully controlled. This underscores the importance of assessing postfire hazards before a fire starts. Evaluation of PFDF hazards prior to fire can help strategize interventions lessening the negative effects of future fires. However, debris-flow runout and inundation analyses are not routine in PFDF hazard assessments, partially due to time constraints and substantial uncertainties in boundary conditions. Here, we propose a prefire PFDF inundation assessment framework using a debris-flow runout model based on the Herschel-Bulkley (HB) rheology (HEC-RAS v6.1). We constrain model inputs and parameters using Bayesian posterior analysis, rainfall-runoff simulations, and a debris-flow volume model. We use observations from recent PFDF incidents in northern Arizona, USA, to calibrate model components and then apply our prefire inundation assessment framework in a nearby unburned area. Specifically, we (a) identify yield stress as the most influential factor on inundation extent and arrival time in a HB model, (b) establish posterior distributions for model parameters suitable for forward modeling by leveraging uncertainties in field observations, and (c) implement a predictive forward analysis in an area that has not burned recently to evaluate PFDF inundation under several future fire scenarios. This study improves our ability to assess postfire debris-flow hazards before a fire begins and provides guidance for future applications of single-phase rheological models when assessing PFDF hazards.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Burning Embers: Towards more transparent and robust climate change risk assessments

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments provide policy-relevant insights about climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation through a process of peer-reviewed literature assessments underpinned by expert judgement. An iconic output from these assessments is the “burning embers” diagram. Burning embers were first used in the Third Assessment Report to visualize reasons for concern, which aggregate risks from various systems and sectors. In these diagrams, colour transitions show changes in the assessed level of risk to humans and ecosystems as a function of climate change indicated by increasing levels of global mean temperature. Here we review the approach to the construction of burning embers, its evolution across the various IPCC reports, and recent methodological advances in the elicitation process to reduce subjectivity in the expert judgement and improve the transparency of the assessment. We recommend the use of a standardized, transparent process of expert elicitation in the production of burning embers diagrams to enhance their quality, comparability, and credibility.

Zommers, Zinta↗

Application of Cable Condition Monitoring Technologies to Assess Age-Related Degradation of Industrial Cables Installed in Harsh Environments

The aging of electrical cables has been the subject of substantial research and development (R&D) projects performed by national and international laboratories, universities, and private organizations for many years. This R&D was conducted to develop guidance, equipment, and techniques to support aging management of in-service cables in industrial facilities such as nuclear power plants, research reactors, waste facilities, and fuel fabrication plants. Through these research efforts, condition monitoring technologies have been developed that can determine the severity of age-related degradation that occurs in industrial cables and insulation polymers during service. This paper summarizes the results of aging assessments that were performed for cables installed in two U.S. nuclear power plants, one a pressurized water reactor and one a boiling water reactor. These cables had been in service for over 40 years and during plant operation were exposed to harsh environmental conditions including elevated temperatures and radiation. For these assessments, a comprehensive series of measurements was performed to assess the aged condition of the cables. These cables came from different manufacturers, were manufactured in different years, and were constructed with a variety of jacket and insulation polymers including chloro-sulfonated polyethylene (CSPE), cross-linked polyethylene (XLPE)/cross-linked polyolefin (XLPO), neoprene, and ethylene propylene rubber (EPR). The goal of these assessments was to determine the current aged condition of the cable polymers and provide an estimate of how long the cable insulation materials could remain exposed to their in-service environmental conditions before reaching their end-of-life condition. Both nuclear power plants have received license renewals to extend their operation from 40 to 60 years, and the utilities need objective evidence to show that critical components such as cables will be able to function safely and reliably during the extended operating period. Furthermore, the results of these assessments showed that the cables exhibited different aged conditions depending on the type of polymers they were constructed with and the environment they were exposed to during service. Some of the cables and insulation polymers showed signs of significant age-related degradation and were estimated to have approximately 5 years of remaining service life. Other cables exhibited no signs of significant age-related degradation and were estimated to have 50 years or more of remaining service life. Using the results of these cable aging assessments, plant personnel were able to (1) determine the overall aged condition of cables and insulation polymers using objective test results, (2) identify aged or degraded cables before they caused operability issues, and (3) avoid unnecessary and costly replacement of cables that can continue to operate safely and reliably.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Alignathon: a competitive assessment of whole-genome alignment methods

Multiple sequence alignments (MSAs) are a prerequisite for a wide variety of evolutionary analyses. Published assessments and benchmark data sets for protein and, to a lesser extent, global nucleotide MSAs are available, but less effort has been made to establish benchmarks in the more general problem of whole-genome alignment (WGA). Using the same model as the successful Assemblathon competitions, we organized a competitive evaluation in which teams submitted their alignments and then assessments were performed collectively after all the submissions were received. Three data sets were used: Two were simulated and based on primate and mammalian phylogenies, and one was comprised of 20 real fly genomes. In total, 35 submissions were assessed, submitted by 10 teams using 12 different alignment pipelines. We found agreement between independent simulation based and statistical assessments, indicating that there are substantial accuracy differences between contemporary alignment tools. We saw considerable differences in the alignment quality of differently annotated regions and found that few tools aligned the duplications analyzed. We found that many tools worked well at shorter evolutionary distances, but fewer performed competitively at longer distances. We provide all data sets, submissions, and assessment programs for further study and provide, as a resource for future benchmarking, a convenient repository of code and data for reproducing the simulation assessments.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Critical Evaluation of a Novel Analysis Technique for Assessment of Printed Circuit Heat Exchangers in High-Temperature Nuclear Service

Application of printed circuit heat exchangers (PCHEs) to very high-temperature reactors (VHTRs) requires mechanical performance assessment methodologies. The PCHE morphology consists of thousands of millimeter-scale channels, for enhanced thermal efficiency, enclosed in a meter-scale PCHE core. PCHE geometry under thermomechanical creep-fatigue transients results in multi-axial interactions between its different segments, such as channeled core, walls, and headers. These global-level interactions influence the local channel-level responses. Hence, developing a PCHE performance assessment methodology, following the ASME Code, Section III, Division 5 provisions, is a critical gap to be filled. There is no analysis or design methodology available in ASME Code to assess a PCHE for its global and local level performances under high temperature and pressure loadings. This paper critically evaluates a recently proposed two-step analysis technique to estimate global interactions and local channel-level responses of PCHEs. In this novel analysis technique, the channeled PCHE core is replaced with orthotropic solid blocks of representative stiffness properties for the global thermomechanical analysis. Here, subsequent channel scale submodel analysis with detailed channel geometry, loading, and elastic-perfectly plastic (EPP) material model estimates the local responses for PCHE performance assessment. This paper critically evaluates this novel technique for its effectiveness in PCHE performance assessment. Finite element (FE) models imitating various analysis issues are developed, and FE analysis results are scrutinized. An important outcome of this study is the validation of the novel two-step PCHE analysis technique for application to the performance assessment of PCHEs in VHTRs.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Assessment of cardiac single-photon emission computed tomography performance using a scanning linear observer

Purpose: Single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) is widely used to detect myocardial ischemia and myocardial infarction. It is important to assess and compare different SPECT system designs in order to achieve the highest detectability of cardiac defects. Methods: Whitaker et al.'s study ['Estimating random signal parameters from noisy images with nuisance parameters: linear and scanning-linear methods,' Opt. Express 16(11), 8150-8173 (2008)] on the scanning linear observer (SLO) shows that the SLO can be used to estimate the location and size of signals. One major advantage of the SLO is that it can be used with projection data rather than with reconstruction data. Thus, this observer model assesses the overall hardware performance independent of any reconstruction algorithm. In addition, the computation time of image quality studies is significantly reduced. In this study, three systems based on the design of the GE cadmium zinc telluride-based dedicated cardiac SPECT camera Discovery 530c were assessed. This design, which is officially named the Alcyone Technology: Discovery NM 530c, was commercialized in August, 2009. The three systems, GE27, GE19, and GE13, contain 27, 19, and 13 detectors, respectively. Clinically, a human heart can be virtually segmented into three coronary artery territories: the left-anterior descending artery, left-circumflex artery, and right coronary artery. One of the most important functions of a cardiac SPECT system is to produce images from which a radiologist can accurately predict in which territory the defect exists [http://www.asnc.org/media/PDFs/PPReporting081511.pdf, Guideline from American Society of Nuclear Cardiology]. A good estimation of the extent of the defect from the projection images is also very helpful for determining the seriousness of the myocardial ischemia. In this study, both the location and extent of defects were estimated by the SLO, and the system performance was assessed by localization receiver operating characteristic (LROC) [P. Khurd and G. Gindi, 'Decision strategies maximizing the area under the LROC curve,' Proc. SPIE 5749, 150-161 (2005)] or estimation receiver operating characteristic (EROC) [E. Clarkson, 'Estimation receiver operating characteristic curve and ideal observers for combined detection/estimation tasks,' J. Opt. Soc. Am. A 24, B91-B98 (2007)] curves. Results: The area under the LROC/EROC curve (AULC/AUEC) and the true positive fraction (TPF) at a specific false positive fraction (FPF) can be treated as the figures of merit. For radii estimation with a 1 mm tolerance, the AUEC values of the GE27, GE19, and GE13 systems are 0.8545, 0.8488, and 0.8329, and the TPF at FPF = 5% are 77.1%, 76.46%, and 73.55%, respectively. The assessment of all three systems revealed that the GE19 system yields estimated information and cardiac defect detectability very close to those of the GE27 system while using eight fewer detectors. Thus, 30% of the expensive detector units can be removed with confidence. Conclusions: As the results show, a combination of the SLO and LROC/EROC curves can determine the configuration that yields the most relevant estimation/detection information. Thus, this is a useful method for assessing cardiac SPECT systems.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Objective assessment of image quality and dose reduction in CT iterative reconstruction

Purpose: Iterative reconstruction (IR) algorithms have the potential to reduce radiation dose in CT diagnostic imaging. As these algorithms become available on the market, a standardizable method of quantifying the dose reduction that a particular IR method can achieve would be valuable. Such a method would assist manufacturers in making promotional claims about dose reduction, buyers in comparing different devices, physicists in independently validating the claims, and the United States Food and Drug Administration in regulating the labeling of CT devices. However, the nonlinear nature of commercially available IR algorithms poses challenges to objectively assessing image quality, a necessary step in establishing the amount of dose reduction that a given IR algorithm can achieve without compromising that image quality. This review paper seeks to consolidate information relevant to objectively assessing the quality of CT IR images, and thereby measuring the level of dose reduction that a given IR algorithm can achieve. Methods: The authors discuss task-based methods for assessing the quality of CT IR images and evaluating dose reduction. Results: The authors explain and review recent literature on signal detection and localization tasks in CT IR image quality assessment, the design of an appropriate phantom for these tasks, possible choices of observers (including human and model observers), and methods of evaluating observer performance. Conclusions: Standardizing the measurement of dose reduction is a problem of broad interest to the CT community and to public health. A necessary step in the process is the objective assessment of CT image quality, for which various task-based methods may be suitable. This paper attempts to consolidate recent literature that is relevant to the development and implementation of task-based methods for the assessment of CT IR image quality.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

A novel approach to assess the treatment response using Gaussian random field in PET

Purpose: The assessment of early therapeutic response to anticancer therapy is vital for treatment planning and patient management in clinic. With the development of personal treatment plan, the early treatment response, especially before any anatomically apparent changes after treatment, becomes urgent need in clinic. Positron emission tomography (PET) imaging serves an important role in clinical oncology for tumor detection, staging, and therapy response assessment. Many studies on therapy response involve interpretation of differences between two PET images, usually in terms of standardized uptake values (SUVs). However, the quantitative accuracy of this measurement is limited. This work proposes a statistically robust approach for therapy response assessment based on Gaussian random field (GRF) to provide a statistically more meaningful scale to evaluate therapy effects. Methods: The authors propose a new criterion for therapeutic assessment by incorporating image noise into traditional SUV method. An analytical method based on the approximate expressions of the Fisher information matrix was applied to model the variance of individual pixels in reconstructed images. A zero mean unit variance GRF under the null hypothesis (no response to therapy) was obtained by normalizing each pixel of the post-therapy image with the mean and standard deviation of the pretherapy image. The performance of the proposed method was evaluated by Monte Carlo simulation, where XCAT phantoms (128{sup 2} pixels) with lesions of various diameters (2–6 mm), multiple tumor-to-background contrasts (3–10), and different changes in intensity (6.25%–30%) were used. The receiver operating characteristic curves and the corresponding areas under the curve were computed for both the proposed method and the traditional methods whose figure of merit is the percentage change of SUVs. The formula for the false positive rate (FPR) estimation was developed for the proposed therapy response assessment utilizing local average method based on random field. The accuracy of the estimation was validated in terms of Euler distance and correlation coefficient. Results: It is shown that the performance of therapy response assessment is significantly improved by the introduction of variance with a higher area under the curve (97.3%) than SUVmean (91.4%) and SUVmax (82.0%). In addition, the FPR estimation serves as a good prediction for the specificity of the proposed method, consistent with simulation outcome with ∼1 correlation coefficient. Conclusions: In this work, the authors developed a method to evaluate therapy response from PET images, which were modeled as Gaussian random field. The digital phantom simulations demonstrated that the proposed method achieved a large reduction in statistical variability through incorporating knowledge of the variance of the original Gaussian random field. The proposed method has the potential to enable prediction of early treatment response and shows promise for application to clinical practice. In future work, the authors will report on the robustness of the estimation theory for application to clinical practice of therapy response evaluation, which pertains to binary discrimination tasks at a fixed location in the image such as detection of small and weak lesion.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

SU-F-J-178: A Computer Simulation Model Observer for Task-Based Image Quality Assessment in Radiation Therapy

Purpose: Traditionally, image quality in radiation therapy is assessed subjectively or by utilizing physically-based metrics. Some model observers exist for task-based medical image quality assessment, but almost exclusively for diagnostic imaging tasks. As opposed to disease diagnosis, the task for image observers in radiation therapy is to utilize the available images to design and deliver a radiation dose which maximizes patient disease control while minimizing normal tissue damage. The purpose of this study was to design and implement a new computer simulation model observer to enable task-based image quality assessment in radiation therapy. Methods: A modular computer simulation framework was developed to resemble the radiotherapy observer by simulating an end-to-end radiation therapy treatment. Given images and the ground-truth organ boundaries from a numerical phantom as inputs, the framework simulates an external beam radiation therapy treatment and quantifies patient treatment outcomes using the previously defined therapeutic operating characteristic (TOC) curve. As a preliminary demonstration, TOC curves were calculated for various CT acquisition and reconstruction parameters, with the goal of assessing and optimizing simulation CT image quality for radiation therapy. Sources of randomness and bias within the system were analyzed. Results: The relationship between CT imaging dose and patient treatment outcome was objectively quantified in terms of a singular value, the area under the TOC (AUTOC) curve. The AUTOC decreases more rapidly for low-dose imaging protocols. AUTOC variation introduced by the dose optimization algorithm was approximately 0.02%, at the 95% confidence interval. Conclusion: A model observer has been developed and implemented to assess image quality based on radiation therapy treatment efficacy. It enables objective determination of appropriate imaging parameter values (e.g. imaging dose). Framework flexibility allows for incorporation of additional modules to include any aspect of the treatment process, and therefore has great potential for both assessment and optimization within radiation therapy.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Assessment of Brine Management for Geologic Carbon Sequestration

Geologic carbon sequestration (GCS) is the injection of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), typically captured from stationary emission sources, into deep geologic formations to prevent its entry into the atmosphere. Active pilot facilities run by regional United States (US) carbon sequestration partnerships inject on the order of one million metric tonnes (mt) CO 2 annually while the US electric power sector emits over 2000 million mt-CO 2 annually. GCS is likely to play an increasing role in US carbon mitigation initiatives, but scaling up GCS poses several challenges. Injecting CO 2 into sedimentary basins raises fluid pressure in the pore space, which is typically already occupied by naturally occurring, or native, brine. The resulting elevated pore pressures increase the likelihood of induced seismicity, of brine or CO 2 escaping into potable groundwater resources, and of CO 2 escaping into the atmosphere. Brine extraction is one method for pressure management, in which brine in the injection formation is brought to the surface through extraction wells. Removal of the brine makes room for the CO 2 and decreases pressurization. Although the technology required for brine extraction is mature, this form of pressure management will only be applicable if there are cost-­effective and sustainable methods of disposing of the extracted brine. Brine extraction, treatment, and disposal may increase the already substantial capital, energy, and water demands of Carbon dioxide Capture and Sequestration (CCS). But, regionally specific brine management strategies may be able to treat the extracted water as a source of revenue, energy, and water to subsidize CCS costs, while minimizing environmental impacts. By this approach, value from the extracted water would be recovered before disposing of any resulting byproducts. Until a price is placed on carbon, we expect that utilities and other CO 2 sources will be reluctant to invest in capital intensive, high risk GCS projects; early technical, economic, and environmental assessments of brine management are extremely valuable for determining the potential role of GCS in the US. We performed a first order feasibility and economic assessment, at three different locations in the US, of twelve GCS extracted-­water management options, including: geothermal energy extraction, desalination, salt and mineral harvesting, rare-­earth element harvesting, aquaculture, algae biodiesel production, road de-­icing, enhanced geothermal system (EGS) recharge, underground reinjection, landfill disposal, ocean disposal, and evaporation pond disposal. Three saline aquifers from different regions of the US were selected as hypothetical GCS project sites to encompass variation in parameters that are relevant to the feasibility and economics of brine disposal. The three aquifers are the southern Mt. Simon Sandstone Formation in the Illinois Basin, IL; the Vedder Formation in the southern San Joaquin Basin, CA; and the Jasper Interval in the eastern Texas Gulf Basin, TX. These aquifers are candidates for GCS due to their physical characteristics and their close proximity to large CO 2 emission sources. Feasibility and impacts were calculated using one mt-­CO 2 injected as the functional unit of brine management. Scenarios were performed for typical 1000MW coal-­fired power plants (CFPP) that incurred an assumed 24 percent carbon capture energy penalty (EP), injected 90 percent of CO 2 emissions (~9 million mt-­ CO 2 injected annually), and treated extracted water onsite. Net present value (NPV), land requirements, laws and regulations, and technological limits were determined for each stage of disposal, and used to estimate feasibility. The boundary of the assessment began once extracted water was brought to the surface, and ended once the water evaporated, was injected underground, or was discharged into surface water bodies. Results of the assessment were generated, stored, and analyzed using Microsoft Excel spreadsheets and ESRI Geographical Information System (GIS) maps. Conclusions about the relative benefits and impacts of alternative brine-­management strategies were highly sensitive to local climate and weather, and aquifer water chemistry. The NPV of certain scenarios ranged from -­$50/mt-­CO 2 (a cost) to +$10/mt-­CO 2 (revenue). The land footprint of the scenarios in this study ranged from <1 km 2 to 100 km 2 . Brine extraction as a pressure management tool for GCS has potential for improving the economics and for minimizing the environmental impacts of CCS. In order to maximize this potential, careful analysis of each saline aquifer and region must be conducted to determine a regionally appropriate brine use sequence (BUS) at the time of site selection. Models that use GIS will be essential tools in determining such sequences for individual CFPP. Future studies that perform risk and life cycle assessments (LCA) of BUS scenarios, incorporate additional impact metrics into the BUS model, and enhance the temporal sensitivity of the model would improve the robustness of this regional assessment method.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing Regional Scale Variability in Extreme Value Statistics Under Altered Climate Scenarios

Recent studies have suggested that low-frequency modes of climate variability can significantly influence regional climate. The climatology associated with extreme events has been shown to be particularly sensitive. This has profound implications for droughts, heat waves, and food production. We propose to examine regional climate simulations conducted over the continental United States by applying a recently developed technique which combines wavelet multi–resolution analysis with information theory metrics. This research is motivated by two fundamental questions concerning the spatial and temporal structure of extreme events. These questions are 1) what temporal scales of the extreme value distributions are most sensitive to alteration by low-frequency climate forcings and 2) what is the nature of the spatial structure of variation in these timescales? The primary objective is to assess to what extent information theory metrics can be useful in characterizing the nature of extreme weather phenomena. Specifically, we hypothesize that (1) changes in the nature of extreme events will impact the temporal probability density functions and that information theory metrics will be sensitive these changes and (2) via a wavelet multi–resolution analysis, we will be able to characterize the relative contribution of different timescales on the stochastic nature of extreme events. In order to address these hypotheses, we propose a unique combination of an established regional climate modeling approach and advanced statistical techniques to assess the effects of low-frequency modes on climate extremes over North America. The behavior of climate extremes in RCM simulations for the 20th century will be compared with statistics calculated from the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) and simulations from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). This effort will serve to establish the baseline behavior of climate extremes, the validity of an innovative multi–resolution information theory approach, and the ability of the RCM modeling framework to represent the low-frequency modulation of extreme climate events. Once the skill of the modeling and analysis methodology has been established, we will apply the same approach for the AR5 (IPCC Fifth Assessment Report) climate change scenarios in order to assess how climate extremes and the the influence of lowfrequency variability on climate extremes might vary under changing climate. The research specifically addresses the DOE focus area 2. Simulation of climate extremes under a changing climate. Specific results will include (1) a better understanding of the spatial and temporal structure of extreme events, (2) a thorough quantification of how extreme values are impacted by low-frequency climate teleconnections, (3) increased knowledge of current regional climate models ability to ascertain these influences, and (4) a detailed examination of the how the distribution of extreme events are likely to change under different climate change scenarios. In addition, this research will assess the ability of the innovative wavelet information theory approach to characterize extreme events. Any and all of these results will greatly enhance society’s ability to understand and mitigate the regional ramifications of future global climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗