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At least 667 records · Page 37
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Comparison of Conventional and Constrained Variational Methods for Computing Large-Scale Budgets and Forcing Fields

Analyses of atmospheric heat and moisture budgets serve as an effective tool to study convective characteristics over a region and to provide large-scale forcing fields for various modeling applications. This paper examines two popular methods for computing large-scale atmospheric budgets: the conventional budget method (CBM) using objectively gridded analyses based primarily on radiosonde data and the constrained variational analysis (CVA) approach which supplements vertical profiles of atmospheric fields with measurements at the top of the atmosphere and at the surface to conserve mass, water, energy, and momentum. Successful budget computations are dependent on accurate sampling and analyses of the thermodynamic state of the atmosphere and the divergence field associated with convection and the large-scale circulation that influences it. Utilizing analyses generated from data taken during Dynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (DYNAMO) field campaign conducted over the central Indian Ocean from October to December 2011, we evaluate the merits of these budget approaches and examine their limitations. While many of the shortcomings of the CBM, in particular effects of sampling errors in sounding data, are effectively minimized with CVA, accurate large-scale diagnostics in CVA are dependent on reliable background fields and rainfall constraints. Finally, for the DYNAMO analyses examined, the operational model fields used as the CVA background state provided wind fields that accurately resolved the vertical structure of convection in the vicinity of Gan Island. However, biases in the model thermodynamic fields were somewhat amplified in CVA resulting in a convective environment much weaker than observed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Large-Scale Forcing Impact on the Development of Shallow Convective Clouds Revealed From LASSO Large-Eddy Simulations

Real-world large-eddy simulations (LES) are driven by time-varying large-scale forcings (LSF) - e.g., temperature advection, moisture advection, and subsidence - derived from large-scale weather models. This study investigates the impact of the uncertainty in LSF on real-world LES in terms of the development of shallow convection at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) atmospheric observatory for the 11 June 2016 case using LES provided by the U.S. Department of Energy's LES ARM Symbiotic Simulation and Observation (LASSO) activity. The LASSO dataset provides an ensemble of LES for the selected case, which consists of LES runs that were driven by different LSF. The two contrasting LES runs investigated here generate different types of convective clouds, i.e., nonprecipitating shallow clouds and precipitating cumulus congestus, mainly due to the difference of LSF in temperature advection in the free troposphere. The temperature advection modulates the strength of the capping inversion and therefore the buoyancy of the air parcels rising from the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL). The inversion, together with large-scale updrafts, controls the penetration of the ABL thermals into the free troposphere, leading to cumulus congestus in the case of a weaker inversion. In contrast, clouds remain shallow in the case of a strong inversion. Differences between the two simulations are amplified over time, as mixed-phase clouds are formed near the top of the congestus in the weaker inversion case. Furthermore, this high dependency of LES results to LSF stresses the importance of accurate LSF by large-scale models to real-world LES simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Retreat and Regrowth of the Greenland Ice Sheet During the Last Interglacial as Simulated by the CESM2‐CISM2 Coupled Climate–Ice Sheet Model

Abstract During the Last Interglacial, approximately 129 to 116 ka (thousand years ago), the Arctic summer climate was warmer than the present, and the Greenland Ice Sheet retreated to a smaller extent than its current state. Previous model‐derived and geological reconstruction estimates of the sea‐level contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet during the Last Interglacial vary widely. Here, we conduct a transient climate simulation from 127 to 119 ka using the Community Earth System Model (CESM2), which includes a dynamic ice sheet component (the Community Ice Sheet Model, CISM2) that is interactively coupled to the atmosphere, land, ocean, and sea ice components. Vegetation distribution is updated every 500 years based on biomes simulated using a monthly climatology to force the BIOME4 equilibrium vegetation model. Results show a substantial retreat of the Greenland Ice Sheet, reaching a minimum extent at 121.9 ka, equivalent to a 3.0 m rise in sea level relative to the present day, followed by gradual regrowth. In contrast, a companion simulation employing static vegetation based on pre‐industrial conditions shows a much smaller ice‐sheet retreat, highlighting the importance of the changes in high‐latitude vegetation distribution for amplifying the ice‐sheet response.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Connecting Large‐Scale Meteorological Patterns to Extratropical Cyclones in CMIP6 Climate Models Using Self‐Organizing Maps

Abstract Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are responsible for the majority of cool‐season extreme events in the northeastern United States (NEUS), often leading to high‐impact weather conditions that can have wide‐ranging socioeconomic impacts. Evaluating the ability of climate models to adequately simulate ETC dynamics is essential for improving model performance and increasing confidence in future projections used by stakeholders and policymakers. ETCs are traditionally studied using techniques such as case studies and synoptic typing, however, these approaches can be time‐consuming, require subjective analysis, and do not necessarily identify the coincident large‐scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs). Here, we apply self‐organizing maps (SOMs) as an automated machine‐learning approach to characterize the LSMPs and associated frequency and intensity of discrete ETC events over NEUS. The dominant patterns of geopotential height variability are identified through SOM analysis of five reanalysis products during the last four decades. ETC events are tracked using TempestExtremes and are integrated with SOMs to classify the accumulated cyclone activity (ACA) associated with each pattern. We then evaluate the skill of CMIP6 historical experiments in simulating the LSMPs and ETC events identified in the SOM. Our results identify a robust bias toward more zonal patterns, with models struggling to reproduce the more amplified patterns typically associated with the highest cyclone activity. While model resolution has some impact on simulation credibility, model configuration appears to be more important in LSMP representation. The vast majority of CMIP6 models produce too few ETCs, although model errors are distributed around historical reanalyses when ACA is normalized by storm frequency.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Permafrost Landscape History Shapes Fluvial Chemistry, Ecosystem Carbon Balance, and Potential Trajectories of Future Change

Intensifying permafrost thaw alters carbon cycling by mobilizing large amounts of terrestrial substrate into aquatic ecosystems. Yet, few studies have measured aquatic carbon fluxes and constrained drivers of ecosystem carbon balance across heterogeneous Arctic landscapes. Here, we characterized hydrochemical and landscape controls on fluvial carbon cycling, quantified fluvial carbon fluxes, and estimated fluvial contributions to ecosystem carbon balance across 33 watersheds in four ecoregions in the continuous permafrost zone of the western Canadian Arctic: unglaciated uplands, ice-rich moraine, and organic-rich lowlands and till plains. Major ions, stable isotopes, and carbon speciation and fluxes revealed patterns in carbon cycling across ecoregions defined by terrain relief and accumulation of organics. In previously unglaciated mountainous watersheds, bicarbonate dominated carbon export (70% of total) due to chemical weathering of bedrock. In lowland watersheds, where soil organic carbon stores were largest, lateral transport of dissolved organic carbon (50%) and efflux of biotic CO 2 (25%) dominated. In watersheds affected by thaw-induced mass wasting, erosion of ice-rich tills enhanced chemical weathering and increased particulate carbon fluxes by two orders of magnitude. From an ecosystem carbon balance perspective, fluvial carbon export in watersheds not affected by thaw-induced wasting was, on average, equivalent to 6–16% of estimated net ecosystem exchange (NEE). Finally, in watersheds affected by thaw-induced wasting, fluvial carbon export approached 60% of NEE. Because future intensification of thermokarst activity will amplify fluvial carbon export, determining the fate of carbon across diverse northern landscapes is a priority for constraining trajectories of permafrost region ecosystem carbon balance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Record-Breaking Precipitation in Indonesia's Capital of Jakarta in Early January 2020 Linked to the Northerly Surge, Equatorial Waves, and MJO

A rare record-breaking extreme rainfall event, the highest amount recorded since 1866, hit Indonesia’s capital, Jakarta, in early January 2020. The torrential rainfall was mainly caused by an active cross-equatorial northerly surge (CENS) that occurred concurrently with equatorial waves and Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). A strong and persistent low-level northerly wind and moisture transport induced by CENS created favorable atmospheric conditions for the formation of deep convection and heavy rainfall over Jakarta. The concurrent occurrences of convectively active phases of equatorial waves (mainly Kelvin, TD-type, and eastward propagating inertia-gravity waves) and MJO during the event further supported the development of heavy rainfall by increasing low-level moisture flux convergence, whereas equatorial Rossby waves contributed indirectly to the increased moisture transport by amplifying cross-equatorial meridional flows toward Jakarta. Together, these large-scale dynamical forcing factors provided a conducive convective environment for the development of mesoscale convective systems and, hence, extreme rainfall over the region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

ENSO Diversity and the Simulation of Its Teleconnections to Winter Precipitation Extremes Over the US in High Resolution Earth System Models

Abstract Accounting for the diversity in El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)'s spatial pattern, with the novel ENSO longitudinal index (ELI), we evaluate the simulation of its teleconnections to US winter precipitation extremes by seven global high‐resolution (HR) Earth System Models (ESM). Six (four) HR ESMs simulate the observed increase in precipitation extremes over Southwest US (Southeast US) during ELI‐defined El Niño events better than their low‐resolution counterparts, which are low‐biased. The stronger ENSO‐dependence over the Southwest US and Southeast US in those models is associated with an improved simulation of moisture flux into the regions and/or storm track activity there. HR ESMs, however, generally overestimate the increase in precipitation extremes over the Pacific‐Northwest during La Niña events. Model bias there is associated with bias in moisture transport into the region during La Niña events, which is amplified by the enhanced vertical mass fluxes in HR.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Late Holocene Cliff Retreat in Del Mar, CA, Revealed From Shore Platform 10 Be Concentrations and Numerical Modeling

Rocky coast cliff retreat presents a hazard to coastal communities and infrastructure that is potentially amplified under rising sea level conditions, among other factors. Unfortunately, constraints on retreat rates are typically limited to those derived from imagery and maps spanning the last ~100 years. Here, we use a newly developed coupled model of shore platform profile evolution and cosmogenic radionuclide production that considers the influence of relative sea level (RSL) rise, weathering, material resistance, and wave height decay to model cliff retreat over millennial timescales and its potential drivers in Del Mar, California. We demonstrate the ability to use topographic and bathymetric measurements from a narrow shore platform along with a limited data set of nine cosmogenic 10Be concentrations extending ~125 m from the cliff base to obtain modeled cliff retreat rates that steadily range from 5.0 to 12.5 cm yr -1 over the last two millennia until 100 years before present. These rates are consistent with modern retreat rates of about 2–19 cm yr -1 here. RSL rise in Southern California remained relatively constant during the late Holocene, potentially explaining the relatively stable modeled cliff retreat rate over this time. We also explore the relative influence of weathering, material resistance, and wave erosion efficacy and find that both weathering and wave-driven erosion are necessary to replicate the measured data at this location, with the latter exerting a stronger control on model acceptance, suggesting that waves may provide a possible mechanism by which RSL rise may influence coastal cliff erosion in southern California.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Understanding Precipitation Bias Sensitivities in E3SM-Multi-Scale Modeling Framework From a Dilution Framework

We investigate a set of Energy Exascale Earth System Model Multi-scale modeling framework (MMF) (E3SM-MMF) simulations that vary the dimensionality and momentum transport configurations of the embedded cloud-resolving models (CRMs), including unusually ambitious 3D configurations. Issues endemic to all MMF simulations include too much Intertropical Convergence Zone rainfall and too little over the Amazon. Systematic MMF improvements include more on-equatorial rainfall across the Warm Pool. Interesting sensitivities to the CRM domain are found in the regional time-mean precipitation pattern over the tropics. The 2D E3SM-MMF produces an unrealistically rainy region over the northwestern tropical Pacific; this is reduced in computationally ambitious 3D configurations that use 1,024 embedded CRM grid columns per host cell. Trajectory analysis indicates that these regional improvements are associated with desirably fewer tropical cyclones and less extreme precipitation rates. To understand why and how the representation of precipitation improved in 3D, we propose a framework that dilution is stronger in 3D. This viewpoint is supported by multiple indirect lines of evidence, including a delayed moisture-precipitation pickup, smaller precipitation efficiency, and amplified convective mass flux profiles and more high clouds. We also demonstrate that the effects of varying embedded CRM dimensionality and momentum transport on precipitation can be identified during the first few simulated days, providing an opportunity for rapid model tuning without high computational cost. Meanwhile the results imply that other less computationally intensive ways to enhance dilution within MMF CRMs may also be strategic tuning targets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Scaling of Floods With Geomorphologic Characteristics and Precipitation Variability Across the Conterminous United States

Abstract Accurate flood risk assessment requires a comprehensive understanding of flood sensitivity to regional drivers and climate factors. This paper presents the scaling of floods (duration, peak, volume) with geomorphologic characteristics of the basin (i.e., drainage area, slope, elevation) and precipitation patterns (rainfall accumulation, variability). Long‐term daily streamflow observations over the 20th and early 21st centuries from Hydro‐Climatic Data Network streamgages across the conterminous United States are used to create a flood event database based on their flood stage information. Antecedent daily rainfall accumulation and variability corresponding to these floods are computed using Global Historical Climatology Network daily data set. Two Bayesian scaling models are developed, and the spatial organization of scaling exponents is investigated. The baseline model quantifies the scaling of floods to geomorphologic characteristics. The dynamic model quantifies the scaling of floods to antecedent precipitation distribution which is further conditioned on geomorphologic characteristics. Results show that small and low‐elevation basins have a stronger response to antecedent rainfall distribution in amplifying flood peaks, while high‐elevation steeper basins have a lower response for flood duration and volume. The dynamic models demonstrate that there are significant variations in the flood scaling rates, with the largest rates up to 40% and 4.5% for flood duration, 64% and 44% for peak, and 98% and 40% for volume found across the Northeast, Coastal Southeast, and Northwest with intensifying rainfall accumulation and variability, respectively. This study advances flood predictions by better informing the flood attributes in the context of dynamical land‐atmosphere perturbations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Global Increase in Nearshore Tropical Cyclone Intensification

Abstract Tropical Cyclones (TCs) inflict substantial coastal damages, making it pertinent to understand changing storm characteristics in the important nearshore region. Past work examined several aspects of TCs relevant for impacts in coastal regions. However, few studies explored nearshore storm intensification and its response to climate change at the global scale. Here, we address this using a suite of observations and numerical model simulations. Over the historical period 1979–2020, observations reveal a global mean TC intensification rate increase of about 3 kt per 24‐hr in regions close to the coast. Analysis of the observed large‐scale environment shows that stronger decreases in vertical wind shear and larger increases in relative humidity relative to the open oceans are responsible. Further, high‐resolution climate model simulations suggest that nearshore TC intensification will continue to rise under global warming. Idealized numerical experiments with an intermediate complexity model reveal that decreasing shear near coastlines, driven by amplified warming in the upper troposphere and changes in heating patterns, is the major pathway for these projected increases in nearshore TC intensification.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Impacts of a Weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation on ENSO in a Warmer Climate

This study quantifies the impacts of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) on the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) under anthropogenic warming by comparing climate change model simulations with declining and fixed strengths of the overturning. After the 1980s, a weakened AMOC is shown to reduce the strength of the annual cycle of sea surface temperature (SST) in the eastern equatorial Pacific and induce anomalous cross-equatorial northerly winds there, which strengthens ENSO variability by about 11%. An analysis of the Bjerknes stability index reveals that this intensification of ENSO results mainly from enhanced Ekman upwelling feedback due to amplified atmospheric wind response to SST anomalies and oceanic upwelling response to equatorial wind stress anomalies. The weakened AMOC also promotes the occurrence of Central Pacific El Niño events and reduces ENSO skewness. These AMOC impacts on ENSO magnitude and complexity throughout the twenty-first century are however smaller than ENSO variations expected from internal climate variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Effect of Indian Ocean Temperature on the Pacific Trade Winds and ENSO

Abstract A notable shift in the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been observed in the early 21st century, characterized by an increased prevalence of Central Pacific (CP) events and strengthened Pacific trade winds. This shift may be attributed to the warming tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). To investigate this, we conduct perturbation experiments using the Insitut Pierre Simon Laplace climate model and nudge TIO surface temperatures to induce warming or cooling effects. Our findings reveal that TIO warming (or cooling) leads to amplified (weakened) mean trade winds and surface warming (cooling) in the Pacific region. Surprisingly, ENSO variability increases in both TIO cooling and warming scenarios. This result is linked to stronger positive feedbacks and a less stable Bjerknes index for either TIO forcing. Additionally, we find that TIO warming leads to more frequent CP events, meridional widening of wind anomalies, and broadening of the ENSO power spectrum toward lower frequencies.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2023

More Frequent and Persistent Heatwaves Due To Increased Temperature Skewness Projected by a High‐Resolution Earth System Model

Abstract Heatwaves are strongly associated with temperature distributions, but the mechanisms by which distributions are influenced by climate change remains unclear. Comparing simulations from a high‐spatial resolution Community Earth System Model (CESM‐HR) with those from low‐resolution models, we identify substantial improvements by CESM‐HR in reproducing observed Northern Hemisphere summer temperature skewness, as well as the frequency, intensity, persistence, and total heatwave days. Temperature skewness is strongly linked to land‐atmosphere interactions and atmospheric circulation. Under global warming projections, some regions exhibit enhanced temperature skewness, along with more frequent and persistent heatwaves of greater intensity. We find that in energy‐limited regimes, such as India, negative skewness in latent heat flux facilitates large positive skewness in sensible heat flux, which modulates near‐surface air temperatures. Skewness differences of latent and sensible heat fluxes are amplified under global warming, increasing the temperature skewness. We find that this contrasting flux mechanism is active in several heatwave‐prone regions.

Gao, Yang↗
DOE OSTI2023

Wind Fields in Category 1–3 Tropical Cyclones Are Not Fully Represented in Wind Turbine Design Standards

Abstract Offshore wind energy deployment in the U.S. is expected to increase in the years to come, with proposed wind farm sites located in regions with high risk for tropical cyclones. Yet, the wind turbine design criteria outlined by the International Electrotechnical Commission for extreme events may not account for wind field characteristics unique to tropical cyclones. To evaluate if current design standards capture the extreme conditions of these storms, we perform idealized large‐eddy simulations of three tropical cyclones (one Category 1, one Category 2, and one Category 3 storms) using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Wind conditions near the eyewall of Cat‐1, Cat‐2, and Cat‐3 storms can exceed current design standards for offshore wind turbines. Winds at 90 m can be faster than outlined in the design criteria for Class I and Class T turbines for 50‐year recurrence periods. Wind speed shear across the turbine rotor layer is also larger than assumed in design specifications. Moreover, vertical variations in wind direction across the turbine rotor layer are large for tropical cyclones of all intensity levels, suggesting design standards should include veer, which can amplify loads in wind turbines. The existence of hurricane wind field characteristics that are not represented in design standards does not imply that damage or failure will certainly occur. Engineering safety factors incorporated in the design of the turbine's blades and structural components may prevent damage from occurring.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sea–Level Rise Impacts on Tidal Marshes and Estuarine Biogeochemical Processes

We used a numerical model to investigate the effects of sea-level rise (SLR) on the biogeochemical processes in the York River Estuary with extensive tidal marshes. The fully-coupled hydrodynamic-water quality-marsh model accounts for the spatial and temporal variations of physical-biogeochemical interactions between the tidal marshes and surrounding waters. This study focuses on an SLR scenario where the vertical accretion of tidal marshes keeps pace with the rising sea levels. Results show that SLR amplifies the tidal range and prolongs flooding duration, which results in enhanced porewater exchanges of materials between the tidal marshes and the surrounding waters. The increased availability of shallow-water habitats and enhanced light utilization in the shallow areas under SLR promote phytoplankton production (PP) in the shallow-water regions of the York River. Consequently, the organic carbon in the open water is fueled by the contributions from shallow waters and the enhanced export of organic carbon from the marshes. The change in the dissolved oxygen (DO) budget in the York River Estuary is attributed to changes in water column respiration, net metabolism of the benthic layer, reaeration, PP, and increased stratification under SLR. The net DO flux out of the York River increases at the York River mouth. Diel DO variation, especially in the marshes in the upper estuary, promotes phosphorus release from the sediment. The changes in dissolved nitrogen under SLR are relatively minimal.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Future Spatially Explicit Patterns of Land Transitions in the United States With Multiple Stressors

Climate change, income and population growth, and changing diets are major drivers of the global food system with implications for land use change. Land use in the U.S. will be affected directly by local and regional forces and indirectly through international trade. In order to investigate the effects of several potential forces on land use changes in the U.S., we advanced capabilities in representing the interactions between natural and human systems by linking a multisectoral and multiregional socio-economic model of the world economy to a model that downscales land use to a 0.5°grid scale. This enables us to translate regional projections of future land use into higher-resolution representations of time-evolving land cover (effectively spatially explicit land use transitions). We applied the framework over the U.S., with a particular interest in the Mississippi River Basin and its four sub-basins, to consider how a range of global drivers affect land use and cover in the target regions. Our results show that under scenarios of high pressure on the world food system a comparative advantage in livestock production amplifies the recent trend toward less cropland and more pastures in the U.S. Under low pressures on the world food system agricultural land is used less intensively. However, there can be key differences among the various land-use transitions at the sub- basin scale. Overall, these results highlighted the need for high resolution details to explicitly understand the implications of land use change on environmental impacts such as carbon storage, soil erosion, chemical use, hydrology, and water quality.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bering Strait Ocean Heat Transport Drives Decadal Arctic Variability in a High‐Resolution Climate Model

Abstract We investigate the role of ocean heat transport (OHT) in driving the decadal variability of the Arctic climate by analyzing the pre‐industrial control simulation of a high‐resolution climate model. While the OHT variability at 65°N is greater in the Atlantic, we find that the decadal variability of Arctic‐wide surface temperature and sea ice area is much better correlated with Bering Strait OHT than Atlantic OHT. In particular, decadal Bering Strait OHT variability causes significant changes in local sea ice cover and air‐sea heat fluxes, which are amplified by shortwave feedbacks. These heat flux anomalies are regionally balanced by longwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere, without compensation by atmospheric heat transport (Bjerknes compensation). The sensitivity of the Arctic to changes in OHT may thus rely on an accurate representation of the heat transport through the Bering Strait, which is difficult to resolve in coarse‐resolution ocean models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗