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NASA NTRS2013

Estimating How Often Mass Extinctions Due to Impacts Occur on the Earth

This hands-on, inquiry based activity has been taught at JPL's summer workshop "Teachers Touch the Sky" for the past two decades. Students act as mini-investigators as they gather and analyze data to estimate how often an impact large enough to cause a mass extinction occurs on the Earth. Large craters are counted on the Moon, and this number is extrapolated to the size of the Earth. Given the age of the Solar System, the students can then estimate how often large impacts occur on the Earth. This activity is based on an idea by Dr. David Morrison, NASA Ames Research Center.

Buratti, Bonnie J.↗
DOE OSTI2014

Volatility basis-set approach simulation of organic aerosol formation in East Asia: implications for anthropogenic-biogenic interaction and controllable amounts

Organic aerosol (OA) simulations using the volatility basis-set approach were made for East Asia and its outflow region. Model simulations were evaluated through comparisons with OA measured by aerosol mass spectrometers in and around Tokyo (at Komaba and Kisai in summer 2003 and 2004) and over the outflow region in East Asia (at Fukue and Hedo in spring 2009). The simulations with aging processes of organic vapors reasonably well reproduced mass concentrations, temporal variations, and formation efficiency of observed OA at all sites. As OA mass was severely underestimated in the simulations without the aging processes, the oxidations of organic vapors are essential for reasonable OA simulations over East Asia. By considering the aging processes, simulated OA concentrations considerably increased from 0.24 to 1.28 µg m-3 in the boundary layer over the whole of East Asia. OA formed from the interaction of anthropogenic and biogenic sources was also enhanced by the aging processes. The fraction of controllable OA was estimated to be 87 % of total OA over the whole of East Asia, showing that most of the OA in our simulations formed anthropogenically (controllable). A large portion of biogenic secondary OA (78 % of biogenic secondary OA) formed through the influence of anthropogenic sources. The high fraction of controllable OA in our simulations is likely because anthropogenic emissions are dominant over East Asia and OA formation is enhanced by anthropogenic sources and their aging processes. Both the amounts (from 0.18 to 1.12 µg m-3) and the fraction (from 75 % to 87 %) of controllable OA were increased by aging processes of organic vapors over East Asia.

Matsui, H.↗
DOE OSTI2017

Ten-year chemical signatures associated with long-range transport observed in the free troposphere over the central North Atlantic

Ten-year observations of trace gases at Pico Mountain Observatory (PMO), a free troposphere site in the central North Atlantic, were classified by transport patterns using the Lagrangian particle dispersion model, FLEXPART. The classification enabled identifying trace gas mixing ratios associated with background air and long- range transport of continental emissions, which were defined as chemical signatures. Comparison between the chemical signatures revealed the impacts of natural and anthropogenic sources, as well as chemical and physical processes during long transport, on air composition in the remote North Atlantic. Transport of North American anthropogenic emissions (NA-Anthro) and summertime wildfire plumes (Fire) significantly enhanced CO and O 3 at PMO. Summertime CO enhancements caused by NA-Anthro were found to have been decreasing by a rate of 0.67 ± 0.60 ppbv/year in the ten-year period, due possibly to reduction of emissions in North America. Downward mixing from the upper troposphere and stratosphere due to the persistent Azores-Bermuda anticyclone causes enhanced O 3 and nitrogen oxides. The d [O 3 ]/d [CO] value was used to investigate O 3 sources and chemistry in different transport patterns. The transport pattern affected by Fire had the lowest d [O 3 ]/d [CO], which was likely due to intense CO production and depressed O 3 production in wildfire plumes. Slightly enhanced O 3 and d [O 3 ]/d [CO] were found in the background air, suggesting that weak downward mixing from the upper troposphere is common at PMO. Enhancements of both butane isomers were found during upslope flow periods, indicating contributions from local sources. The consistent ratio of butane isomers associated with the background air and NA-anthro implies no clear difference in the oxidation rates of the butane isomers during long transport. Based on observed relationships between non-methane hydrocarbons, the averaged photochemical age of the air masses at PMO was estimated to be 11 ± 4 days.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Tensile Property and Lifetime Prediction for Low-Temperature Aged Uranium-Niobium Alloys

Thermal aging models and lifetime predictions for uranium-niobium (U-Nb) alloys were created using an approach similar to those previously employed. Lifetime estimates for generic U-6Nb components were thus updated; the reported value being 800 years. This update represents a small change in lifetime vs. that of the 2012 assessment (540 years). This lifetime estimate emerged from consideration of several model fits specific to the aging datasets and properties chosen. Aging was quantified using quasi-static tensile properties measured on specimens artificially aged for up to 10 years. The major change relative to the most recent 2012 LANL assessment was that a more comprehensive body of U-Nb literature data was mined, in addition to being augmented by the latest LANL and UK AWE data. The tensile data compilation was published separately (LANL report LA-14493, December 2016). Recognizing the chemical banding of industrially produced U-6Nb, models were developed for the mid-range (6 wt.%) and extrema (4 and 8 wt.%) compositions. Lifetime estimates were calculated for all three alloy classes (4, 6, 8 wt.% nominal) and two measures of total tensile elongation (TE) to failure, namely TE-ext. — extensometer method, and TE-NCD — normalized crosshead displacement method. The conservative assumption was made that whichever composition (4, 6, or 8 wt.% Nb) and property (TE-ext or TE-NCD) was the first to cross the ductility failure threshold would limit the lifetime of the entire component. Tensile strength properties did not figure into the lifetime predictions, but could be useful as age-sensitive diagnostics and were also modeled. Of these, only first yield strength is expected to show a change at 40°C aging vs. time = 0 over the ~100-year timespan of engineering interest. Second yield strength evolves more slowly, and ultimate tensile strength slower still. Among all the models, the apparent activation energies for aging were mostly in the narrow 29– 37 kcal/mol range, which is close to that for diffusion of Nb in gamma-uranium. This agreement may be coincidental. The data from recent long-term aging studies substantially improved the model fit quality and robustness of the lifetimes. Appendices document sensitivity studies of the model fits and lifetimes with respect to using more limited datasets. These results highlight the limitations of relying solely on data from scattered literature studies and smaller datasets more generally.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2015

SIMULTANEOUS ESTIMATION OF PHOTOMETRIC REDSHIFTS AND SED PARAMETERS: IMPROVED TECHNIQUES AND A REALISTIC ERROR BUDGET

We seek to improve the accuracy of joint galaxy photometric redshift estimation and spectral energy distribution (SED) fitting. By simulating different sources of uncorrected systematic errors, we demonstrate that if the uncertainties in the photometric redshifts are estimated correctly, so are those on the other SED fitting parameters, such as stellar mass, stellar age, and dust reddening. Furthermore, we find that if the redshift uncertainties are over(under)-estimated, the uncertainties in SED parameters tend to be over(under)-estimated by similar amounts. These results hold even in the presence of severe systematics and provide, for the first time, a mechanism to validate the uncertainties on these parameters via comparison with spectroscopic redshifts. We propose a new technique (annealing) to re-calibrate the joint uncertainties in the photo-z and SED fitting parameters without compromising the performance of the SED fitting + photo-z estimation. This procedure provides a consistent estimation of the multi-dimensional probability distribution function in SED fitting + z parameter space, including all correlations. While the performance of joint SED fitting and photo-z estimation might be hindered by template incompleteness, we demonstrate that the latter is “flagged” by a large fraction of outliers in redshift, and that significant improvements can be achieved by using flexible stellar populations synthesis models and more realistic star formation histories. In all cases, we find that the median stellar age is better recovered than the time elapsed from the onset of star formation. Finally, we show that using a photometric redshift code such as EAZY to obtain redshift probability distributions that are then used as priors for SED fitting codes leads to only a modest bias in the SED fitting parameters and is thus a viable alternative to the simultaneous estimation of SED parameters and photometric redshifts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Characterization of methane oxidation in a simulated landfill cover system by comparing molecular and stable isotope mass balances

Highlights: • Quantification of bacterial methane oxidation was investigated by isotope analysis. • Independent approaches (mass balancing, stoichiometry, and stable isotope analysis). • Robust statistical validation of calculated biodegradation in experimental reactor. • Thermal imaging to locate bacterial methane oxidation along with isotope analysis. - Abstract: Biological methane oxidation may be regarded as a method of aftercare treatment for landfills to reduce climate relevant methane emissions. It is of social and economic interest to estimate the behavior of bacterial methane oxidation in aged landfill covers due to an adequate long-term treatment of the gas emissions. Different approaches assessing methane oxidation in laboratory column studies have been investigated by other authors recently. However, this work represents the first study in which three independent approaches, ((i) mass balance, (ii) stable isotope analysis, and (iii) stoichiometric balance of product (CO{sub 2}) and reactant (CH{sub 4}) by CO{sub 2}/CH{sub 4}-ratio) have been compared for the estimation of the biodegradation by a robust statistical validation on a rectangular, wide soil column. Additionally, an evaluation by thermal imaging as a potential technique for the localization of the active zone of bacterial methane oxidation has been addressed in connection with stable isotope analysis and CO{sub 2}/CH{sub 4}-ratios. Although landfills can be considered as open systems the results for stable isotope analysis based on a closed system correlated better with the mass balance than calculations based on an open system. CO{sub 2}/CH{sub 4}-ratios were also in good agreement with mass balance. In general, highest values for biodegradation were determined from mass balance, followed by CO{sub 2}/CH{sub 4}-ratio, and stable isotope analysis. The investigated topsoil proved to be very suitable as a potential cover layer by removing up to 99% of methane for CH{sub 4} loads of 35–65 g m{sup –2} d{sup –1} that are typical in the aftercare phase of landfills. Finally, data from stable isotope analysis and the CO{sub 2}/CH{sub 4}-ratios were used to trace microbial activity within the reactor system. It was shown that methane consumption and temperature increase, as a cause of high microbial activity, correlated very well.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparison of sleep parameters from wrist-worn ActiGraph and Actiwatch devices

Abstract Sleep and physical activity, two important health behaviors, are often studied independently using different accelerometer types and body locations. Understanding whether accelerometers designed for monitoring each behavior can provide similar sleep parameter estimates may help determine whether one device can be used to measure both behaviors. Three hundred and thirty one adults (70.7 ± 13.7 years) from the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging wore the ActiGraph GT9X Link and the Actiwatch 2 simultaneously on the non-dominant wrist for 7.0 ± 1.6 nights. Total sleep time (TST), wake after sleep onset (WASO), sleep efficiency, number of wake bouts, mean wake bout length, and sleep fragmentation index (SFI) were extracted from ActiGraph using the Cole–Kripke algorithm and from Actiwatch using the software default algorithm. These parameters were compared using paired t-tests, Bland–Altman plots, and Deming regression models. Stratified analyses were performed by age, sex, and body mass index (BMI). Compared to the Actiwatch, the ActiGraph estimated comparable TST and sleep efficiency, but fewer wake bouts, longer WASO, longer wake bout length, and higher SFI (all p < .001). Both devices estimated similar 1-min and 1% differences between participants for TST and SFI (β = 0.99, 95% CI: 0.95, 1.03, and 0.91, 1.13, respectively), but not for other parameters. These differences varied by age, sex, and/or BMI. The ActiGraph and the Actiwatch provide comparable absolute and relative estimates of TST, but not other parameters. The discrepancies could result from device differences in movement collection and/or sleep scoring algorithms. Further comparison and calibration is required before these devices can be used interchangeably.

Liu, Fangyu (ORCID:0000000315541478)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Mortality among Tennessee Eastman Corporation (TEC) uranium processing workers, 1943–2019

Background: There are few occupational studies of women exposed to ionizing radiation. During World War II, the Tennessee Eastman Corporation (TEC) operated an electromagnetic field separation facility of 1152 calutrons to obtain enriched uranium (235U) used for the Hiroshima atomic bomb. Thousands of women were involved in these operations. Materials and methods: We report a new study was conducted of 13,951 women and 12,699 men employed at TEC between 1943 and 1947 for at least 90 days. Comprehensive dose reconstruction techniques were used to estimate lung doses from the inhalation of uranium dust based on airborne measurements. Vital status through 2018/2019 was obtained from the National Death Index, Social Security Death Index, Tennessee death records and online public record databases. Analyses included standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and Cox proportional hazards models. Results: Most workers were hourly (77.7%), white (95.6%), born before 1920 (58.3%), worked in dusty environments (57.0%), and had died (94.9%). Vital status was confirmed for 97.4% of the workers. Women were younger than men when first employed: mean ages 25.0 years and 33.0 years, respectively. The estimated mean absorbed dose to the lung was 32.7 mGy (max 1048 mGy) for women and 18.9 mGy (max 501 mGy) for men. The mean dose to thoracic lymph nodes (TLNs) was 127 mGy. Statistically significant SMRs were observed for lung cancer (SMR 1.25; 95% CI 1.19, 1.31; n = 1654), nonmalignant respiratory diseases (NMRDs) (1.23; 95% CI 1.19, 1.28; n = 2585), and cerebrovascular disease (CeVD) (1.13; 95% CI 1.08, 1.18; n = 1945). For lung cancer, the excess relative rate (ERR) at 100 mGy (95% CI) was 0.01 (–0.10, 0.12; n = 652) among women, and –0.15 (–0.38, 0.07; n = 1002) among men based on a preferred model for men with lung doses <300 mGy. NMRD and non-Hodgkin lymphoma were not associated with estimated absorbed dose to the lung or TLN. Conclusions: There was little evidence that radiation increased the risk of lung cancer, suggesting that inhalation of uranium dust and the associated high-LET alpha particle exposure to lung tissue experienced over a few years is less effective in causing lung cancer than other types of exposures. There was no statistically significant difference in the lung cancer risk estimates between men and women. The elevation of certain causes of death such as CeVD is unexplained and will require additional scrutiny of workplace or lifestyle factors given that radiation is an unlikely contributor since only the lung and lymph nodes received appreciable dose.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
DOE OSTI2020

Misclassification of primary liver cancer in the Life Span Study of atomic bomb survivors

Primary liver cancer is difficult to diagnose accurately at death, due to metastases from nearby organs and to concomitant diseases, such as chronic hepatitis and cirrhosis. Trends in diagnostic accuracy could affect radiation risk estimates for incident liver cancer by altering background rates or by impacting risk modification by sex and age. We quantified the potential impact of death‐certificate inaccuracies on radiation risk estimates for liver cancer in the Life Span Study of atomic bomb survivors. True‐positive and false‐negative rates were obtained from a previous study that compared death‐certificate causes of death with those based on pathological review, from 1958 to 1987. We assumed various scenarios for misclassification rates after 1987. We obtained estimated true positives and estimated false negatives by stratified sampling from binomial distributions with probabilities given by the true‐positive and false‐negative rates, respectively. Poisson regression methods were applied to highly stratified person‐year tables of corrected case counts and accrued person years. During the study period (1958–2009), there were 1,885 cases of liver cancer, which included 383 death‐certificate‐only (DCO) cases; 1,283 cases with chronic liver disease as the underlying cause of death; and 150 DCO cases of pancreatic cancer among 105,444 study participants. Across the range of scenarios considered, radiation risk estimates based on corrected case counts were attenuated, on average, by 13–30%. Our results indicated that radiation risk estimates for liver cancer were potentially sensitive to death‐certificate inaccuracies. Additional data are needed to inform misclassification rates in recent years.

French, Benjamin↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of Oxygen Consumption as a Sensitive Measure of Electrical Cable Polymer Insulation Degradation

Polymers used as dielectric materials in nuclear grade electrical cables, such as cross-linked polyethylene (XLPE) and ethylene-propylene rubber (EPR), are long-lived and durable. Estimating the decades-long useful service life of polymers experimentally in a feasible timeframe of weeks or months requires greatly accelerated aging in the laboratory at elevated temperatures and/or gamma dose rates. Many limitations of accelerated aging, such as due to artefacts of the process including diffusion limited oxidation and dose rate effects, have been identified that can make accurate lifetime prediction at service conditions challenging. This can be due to differences in degradation mechanisms between rapid and extended aging or to the presence of induction periods during which early aging is undetectable using common metrics of polymer insulation characterization such as tensile elongation at break. Conceptually, an ideal measure of aging would track clearly and predictably with material changes throughout the lifecycle of the evolving material state from early aging through end of useful life. With such a metric accelerated aging could be performed at much milder conditions, conditions closer to those found in long term service, and end of life calculated from the early data. Oxygen consumption has previously been proposed as a sensitive measure of insulation polymer oxidation that might meet such desirable characteristics. In this work, nuclear cable insulation samples of the two most common types, XLPE and EPR, from two of the most sourced manufacturers, RSCC and The Okonite Company, were subjected to gamma irradiation at dose rates of 100, 200, and 300 Gy/hr for up to 42 days at 26°C. The aged samples were used to evaluate oxygen consumption as a sensitive measure of aging for these materials and these conditions. For comparison and validation, the aged samples were also characterized using the more conventional tests of mass change, density, carbonyl index, and yellowness index. For both materials, oxygen consumption during irradiation was found to track consistently with applied dose—oxygen consumption rate was linear with time. Mass change and carbonyl index were also clearly proportional to exposure dose. Yellowness index, a surface sensitive measure, was observed to increase linearly with dose at low exposure levels before plateauing. Sample density was not observed to change under the conditions explored. Oxygen consumption was found to be a particularly sensitive metric to measure the degradation of polymeric cable insulation exposed to radiation. Oxygen consumption was compared to Arrhenius and time-temperature-superposition methods for activation energy calculation using literature date and found to be a useful and viable alternative for lifetime prediction. The techniques developed in this work are anticipated to be valuable in the estimation of insulation aging rates under mild conditions approaching service conditions. Direction comparison of useful life prediction by oxygen consumption with prediction via Arrhenius methodology for thermal aging and existing methods for radiation and combined thermal/radiation aging would serve to further validate this promising approach and refine our understanding of material-specific aging rates.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Verbal Learning and Memory Deficits across Neurological and Neuropsychiatric Disorders: Insights from an ENIGMA Mega Analysis

Deficits in memory performance have been linked to a wide range of neurological and neuropsychiatric conditions. While many studies have assessed the memory impacts of individual conditions, this study considers a broader perspective by evaluating how memory recall is differentially associated with nine common neuropsychiatric conditions using data drawn from 55 international studies, aggregating 15,883 unique participants aged 15–90. The effects of dementia, mild cognitive impairment, Parkinson’s disease, traumatic brain injury, stroke, depression, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), schizophrenia, and bipolar disorder on immediate, short-, and long-delay verbal learning and memory (VLM) scores were estimated relative to matched healthy individuals. Random forest models identified age, years of education, and site as important VLM covariates. A Bayesian harmonization approach was used to isolate and remove site effects. Regression estimated the adjusted association of each clinical group with VLM scores. Memory deficits were strongly associated with dementia and schizophrenia (p < 0.001), while neither depression nor ADHD showed consistent associations with VLM scores (p > 0.05). Differences associated with clinical conditions were larger for longer delayed recall duration items. By comparing VLM across clinical conditions, this study provides a foundation for enhanced diagnostic precision and offers new insights into disease management of comorbid disorders.

Neurosciences & Neurology↗
DOE OSTI2022

Transit Time Estimation in Catchments: Recent Developments and Future Directions

Abstract Water transit time is now a standard measure in catchment hydrological and ecohydrological research. The last comprehensive review of transit time modeling approaches was published 15+ years ago. But since then the field has largely expanded with new data, theory and applications. Here, we review these new developments with focus on water‐age‐balance approaches and data‐based approaches. We discuss and compare methods including StorAge‐Selection functions, well/partially mixed compartments, water age tracking through spatially distributed models, direct transit time estimates from controlled experiments, young water fractions, and ensemble hydrograph separation. We unify some of the heterogeneity in the literature that has crept in with these many new approaches, in an attempt to clarify the key differences and similarities among them. Finally, we point to open questions in transit time research, including what we still need from theory, models, field work, and community practice.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Ecophysiological variation of transpiration of pine forests: synthesis of new and published results

Canopy transpiration (E C ) is a large fraction of evapotranspiration, integrating physical and biological processes within the energy, water, and carbon cycles of forests. Quantifying E C is of both scientific and practical importance, providing information relevant to questions ranging from energy partitioning to ecosystem services, such as primary productivity and water yield. We estimated E C of four pine stands differing in age and growing on sandy soils. The stands consisted of two wide-ranging conifer species: Pinus taeda and Pinus sylvestris, in temperate and boreal zones, respectively. Combining results from these and published studies on all soil types, we derived an approach to estimate daily EC of pine forests, representing a wide range of conditions from 35° S to 64° N latitude. During the growing season and under moist soils, maximum daily E C (E Cm ) at day-length normalized vapor pressure deficit of 1 kPa (E Cm-ref ) increased by 0.55 ± 0.02 (mean ± SE) mm/d for each unit increase of leaf area index (L) up to L = ~5, showing no sign of saturation within this range of quickly rising mutual shading. The initial rise of E Cm with atmospheric demand was linearly related to E Cm -ref. Both relations were unaffected by soil type. Consistent with theoretical prediction, daily EC was sensitive to decreasing soil moisture at an earlier point of relative extractable water in loamy than sandy soils. Our finding facilitates the estimation of daily EC of wide-ranging pine forests using remotely sensed L and meteorological data. We advocate an assembly of worldwide sap flux database for further evaluation of this approach.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Revisiting stellar properties of star-forming galaxies with stellar and nebular spectral modelling

Spectral synthesis is a powerful tool for interpreting the physical properties of galaxies by decomposing their spectral energy distributions (SEDs) into the main luminosity contributors (e.g. stellar populations of distinct age and metallicity or ionised gas). However, the impact nebular emission has on the inferred properties of star-forming (SF) galaxies has been largely overlooked over the years, with unknown ramifications to the current understanding of galaxy evolution. The objective of this work is to estimate the relations between stellar properties (e.g. total mass, mean age, and mean metallicity) of SF galaxies by simultaneously fitting the stellar and nebular continua and comparing them to the results derived through the more common purely stellar spectral synthesis approach. The main galaxy sample from SDSS DR7 was analysed with two distinct population synthesis codes: FADO, which estimates self-consistently both the stellar and nebular contributions to the SED, and the original version of STARLIGHT, as representative of purely stellar population synthesis codes. Differences between codes regarding average mass, mean age and mean metallicity values can go as high as ~0.06 dex for the overall population of galaxies and ~0.12 dex for SF galaxies (galaxies with EW(Hα) > 3 Å), with the most prominent difference between both codes in the two populations being in the light-weighted mean stellar age. FADO presents a broader range of mean stellar ages and metallicities for SF galaxies than STARLIGHT, with the latter code preferring metallicity solutions around the solar value (Z ⊙ = 0.02). A closer look into the average light- and mass-weighted star formation histories of intensively SF galaxies (EW(Hα) > 75 Å) reveals that the light contributions of simple stellar populations (SSPs) younger than ≤10 7 (10 9 ) years in STARLIGHT are higher by ~5.41% (9.11%) compared to FADO. Moreover, FADO presents higher light contributions from SSPs with metallicity ≤ Z ⊙ /200 (Z ⊙ /50) of around 8.05% (13.51%) when compared with STARLIGHT. This suggests that STARLIGHT is underestimating the average light-weighted age of intensively SF galaxies by up to ~0.17 dex and overestimating the light-weighted metallicity by up to ~0.13 dex compared to FADO (or vice versa). The comparison between the average stellar properties of passive, SF and intensively SF galaxy samples also reveals that differences between codes increase with increasing EW(Hα) and decreasing total stellar mass. Moreover, comparing SF results from FADO in a purely stellar mode with the previous results qualitatively suggests that differences between codes are primarily due to mathematical and statistical differences and secondarily due to the impact of the nebular continuum modelling approach (or lack thereof). However, it is challenging to adequately quantify the relative role of each factor since they are likely interconnected. This work finds indirect evidence that a purely stellar population synthesis approach negatively impacts the inferred stellar properties (e.g. mean age and mean metallicity) of galaxies with relatively high star formation rates (e.g. dwarf spirals, ‘green peas’, and starburst galaxies). In turn, this can bias interpretations of fundamental relations such as the mass-age or mass-metallicity, which are factors worth bearing in mind in light of future high-resolution spectroscopic surveys at higher redshifts (e.g. MOONS and 4MOST-4HS).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Life Cycle Cost Analysis of Prestressed Concrete Poles Subjected to Wind, Surges, and Waves

Prestressed concrete (PC) poles are becoming popular choices to support coastal power transmission systems. However, the existing literature does not offer a detailed analysis of the effectiveness of PC poles in terms of long-term vulnerabilities and the direct and indirect costs. This is due to (1) lack of fragility models for PC poles and (2) lack of probabilistic wind, storm surge, and wave models in coastal settings. In this study, we address these gaps through a series of Monte Carlo simulations to estimate fragility of PC poles as a function of age and hazard (wind, surges, and waves) intensity, and the development of a probabilistic hazard model based on 10,000 years of synthetic tropical cyclone data. The probabilistic hazard model is used in conjunction with high-resolution hydrodynamic models to generate realizations of coastal wind, storm surges, and waves for the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts. A comprehensive life cycle cost analysis for a service life of 70 years considering direct and indirect losses is conducted to compare the performance of a transmission line located in Pascagoula, Mississippi, when wood poles are replaced by PC poles. Results showed that aging has a minor effect on the reliability of PC poles, highlighting the advantages of replacing wood poles with PC poles, especially in coastal areas. In addition, PC poles are significantly more cost-effective compared with wood poles over their life cycle, leading to an estimated saving of $11.55 million (68.17% reduction). The results of this study provide key insight to inform decision-making processes to keep the coastal power grids resilient and cost-effective against future storm hazards.

natural disasters↗
DOE OSTI2014

Development of an aerosol microphysical module: Aerosol Two-dimensional bin module for foRmation and Aging Simulation (ATRAS)

Number concentrations, size distributions, and mixing states of aerosols are essential parameters for accurate estimation of aerosol direct and indirect effects. In this study, we developed an aerosol module, designated Aerosol Two-dimensional bin module for foRmation and Aging Simulation (ATRAS), that can represent these parameters explicitly by considering new particle formation (NPF), black carbon (BC) aging, and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) processes. A two-dimensional bin representation is used for particles with dry diameters from 40 nm to 10 µm to resolve both aerosol size (12 bins) and BC mixing state (10 bins) for a total of 120 bins. The particles with diameters from 1 to 40 nm are resolved using an additional 8 size bins to calculate NPF. The ATRAS module was implemented in the WRF-chem model and applied to examine the sensitivity of simulated mass, number, size distributions, and optical and radiative parameters of aerosols to NPF, BC aging and SOA processes over East Asia during the spring of 2009. BC absorption enhancement by coating materials was about 50% over East Asia during the spring, and the contribution of SOA processes to the absorption enhancement was estimated to be 10 – 20% over northern East Asia and 20 – 35% over southern East Asia. A clear north-south contrast was also found between the impacts of NPF and SOA processes on cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations: NPF increased CCN concentrations at higher supersaturations (smaller particles) over northern East Asia, whereas SOA increased CCN concentrations at lower supersaturations (larger particles) over southern East Asia. Application of ATRAS to East Asia also showed that the impact of each process on each optical and radiative parameter depended strongly on the process and the parameter in question. The module can be used in the future as a benchmark model to evaluate the accuracy of simpler aerosol models and examine interactions between NPF, BC aging, and SOA processes under different meteorological conditions and emissions.

Matsui, H.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Rapid estimation of photosynthetic leaf traits of tropical plants in diverse environmental conditions using reflectance spectroscopy

Tropical forests are one of the main carbon sinks on Earth, but the magnitude of CO 2 absorbed by tropical vegetation remains uncertain. Terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) are commonly used to estimate the CO 2 absorbed by forests, but their performance is highly sensitive to the parameterization of processes that control leaf-level CO 2 exchange. Direct measurements of leaf respiratory and photosynthetic traits that determine vegetation CO 2 fluxes are critical, but traditional approaches are time-consuming. Reflectance spectroscopy can be a viable alternative for the estimation of these traits and, because data collection is markedly quicker than traditional gas exchange, the approach can enable the rapid assembly of large datasets. However, the application of spectroscopy to estimate photosynthetic traits across a wide range of tropical species, leaf ages and light environments has not been extensively studied. Here, we used leaf reflectance spectroscopy together with partial least-squares regression (PLSR) modeling to estimate leaf respiration ( R dark25 ), the maximum rate of carboxylation by the enzyme Rubisco ( V cmax25 ), the maximum rate of electron transport ( J max25 ), and the triose phosphate utilization rate ( T p25 ), all normalized to 25°C. We collected data from three tropical forest sites and included leaves from fifty-three species sampled at different leaf phenological stages and different leaf light environments. Our resulting spectra-trait models validated on randomly sampled data showed good predictive performance for V cmax25 , J max25 , T p25 and R dark25 (RMSE of 13, 20, 1.5 and 0.3 μmol m -2 s -1 , and R 2 of 0.74, 0.73, 0.64 and 0.58, respectively). The models showed similar performance when applied to leaves of species not included in the training dataset, illustrating that the approach is robust for capturing the main axes of trait variation in tropical species. We discuss the utility of the spectra-trait and traditional gas exchange approaches for enhancing tropical plant trait studies and improving the parameterization of TBMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Statistical Analysis of Supernova Remnants in the Large Magellanic Cloud

We construct the most complete sample of supernova remnants (SNRs) in any galaxy—the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) SNR sample. We study their various properties such as spectral index (α), size, and surface brightness. We suggest an association between the spatial distribution and environment density of LMC SNRs, and their tendency to be located around supergiant shells. We find evidence that the 16 known type Ia LMC SNRs are expanding in a lower density environment compared to the Core-Collapse (CC) type. The mean diameter of our entire population (74) is 41 pc, which is comparable to nearby galaxies. We did not find any correlation between the type of SN explosion, ovality, or age. The N(<D) relationship with slope a = 0.96 implies that the randomized diameters are readily mimicking such an exponent. The rate of SNe occurring in the LMC is estimated to be ∼1 per 200 yr. The mean α of the entire LMC SNR population is −0.52, which is typical of most SNRs. However, our estimates show a clear flattening of the synchrotron α as the remnants age. As predicted, the CC SNRs in our sample are significantly brighter radio emitters than type Ia remnants. We also estimate the Σ--D relation for the LMC to have a slope ∼3.8, which is comparable with other nearby galaxies. We also find the residency time of electrons in the galaxy (4.0–14.3 Myr), implying that SNRs should be the dominant mechanism for the production and acceleration of CRs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗