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At least 667 records · Page 37

Switchgrass Best Management Practices for Biofuel Production

Switchgrass is a perennial C 4 grass native to North America and broadly adaptable across the U.S. Its high productivity, low input requirements, and ability to deliver significant ecosystem services benefits, including carbon sequestration, soil conservation, and wildlife habitat, make it well-suited for cultivation on marginal lands. Achieving the U.S. Department of Energy’s projected potential of 1 billion dry tons of biomass annually by 2050 – with switchgrass contributing up to 230 million tons – will require a transition to large-scale, commercial production. This technical guide was developed to provide decision-makers with current best management practices (BMPs) for establishing, managing, and harvesting bioenergy switchgrass at scale on marginal lands across the U.S. Midwest and Great Plains. Drawing extensively on previous field research and insights from the five-year 'Next-Generation Feedstocks for the Emerging Bioeconomy' project – funded by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Bioenergy Technologies Office – this guide provides practical strategies for scaling up switchgrass production to meet the demands of the growing bioeconomy.

Lee, D.K.↗

Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Plant Optimization Study for the California Power Market (CalCSP)

In the United States, many states are implementing goals to achieve 100% carbon free power generation by 2050 or sooner. California has one of the more aggressive goals to achieve 100% carbon free generation of its retail power sales by 2045. California has excellent solar resources, but to accomplish this goal, California’s power utilities will need new zero carbon resources that can replace the natural gas units that they currently rely on for suppling power at night. Appropriately configured concentrating solar power plants with thermal energy storage are an option to serve this nighttime load. These plants would be designed to take advantage of CSP’s low-cost thermal energy storage and collect and store energy during the day and then be dispatched to produce power at night. The U.S. Department of Energy has funded a study to identify the design of a CSP plant that optimally meets the evolving CA grid needs. This will be done by taking a fresh look at how CSP technologies can best be designed to meet the emerging nighttime market for carbon free power generation or zero-carbon firm resources. The paper provides an overview of the study and present preliminary findings on the California power market requirements, CSP configurations, technoeconomic analysis, siting opportunities, and key issues for CSP deployment in this market.

Price, Hank (ORCID:0000000267049197)↗

GHG policy impacts for Seattle’s buildings: targets, timing, and scope

Many US cities are addressing climate change by setting goals to reduce their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by a specified amount within a specified time period. In order to achieve these goals, reducing emissions from existing buildings is crucial. Many cities are passing legislation to target existing buildings through benchmarking, auditing, retuning, or energy or emissions performance standards. As cities design legislation, they must consider the timing of the policies, how to prioritize building types and sizes, and how these design decisions will impact the city’s emissions. This paper addresses these questions for one particular US city: Seattle, Washington. A model of Seattle’s building stock was created with benchmarking and tax assessor data. It was then used to predict GHG emissions reductions due to different policy implementations for existing commercial and multifamily buildings. Key findings are: (1) the proposed emissions policy is expected to reduce cumulative emissions from buildings by 19% between 2020 and 2050; (2) delaying the implementation of the policy by five years could limit savings to 12%; and (3) including smaller buildings in the policy could increase savings to 34%. The lessons learned and how this can be used by other cities are discussed.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Current and Projected Future Distribution of Plant Community Types for the Southern Seward Peninsula, Alaska

Landscape scale maps of plant community distribution at 5 m resolution were developed for southern Seward Peninsula. A Random Forest based environmental niche model was developed using topographic and climate data sets. Models were trained for the 2010-2019 period and applied to develop plant community distributions for contemporary (2010-2019) period. Trained model was applied to project the plant community distributions under future climate. Using downscaled projections for RCP8.5 scenario from five climate models (CCSM4, GFDL-CM3, GISS-E2-R, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MRI-CGCM3) and multi-model mean, a six member ensemble of plant community distribution were developed for current decade (2010-2019) and for future decades (2020-2029, 2030-2039, 2040-2049, 2050-2059). Contains *.tif and *.sh files. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Transforming the Future of Marine Aquaculture: A Circular Economy Approach

By mid-century, society will need to significantly intensify the output of its food production system while simultaneously reducing that system’s detrimental impacts on climate, land use, freshwater resources, and biodiversity. This will require finding alternatives to carbon emissions-intensive agriculture, which provides the backbone of today’s global food production system. Here, we explore the hypothesis that marine algae-based aquaculture can help close the projected gap in society’s future nutritional demands while simultaneously improving environmental sustainability. Food production from marine algae-based aquaculture has the potential to contribute more than the total global protein demand projected for 2050, which ranges from 263.8 Mt/yr to 286.5 Mt/yr. It also offers important nutritional and environmental sustainability advantages relative to terrestrial agriculture. Marine algae can provide a better source of high-quality nutritional protein, essential amino acids, and other micronutrients relative to terrestrial plants. In addition, because marine algae do not require soil, irrigation, and the open application of fertilizer, their cultivation does not need to compete with agriculture for arable land and freshwater nor does it lead to fertilizer runoff and downstream eutrophication. Furthermore, by reducing agriculture’s demand for arable land and freshwater, marine algae-based aquaculture can reduce the pressure for deforestation, potentially leading to globally significant reductions in carbon emissions and biodiversity loss.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Global variance decomposition of downscaled and bias-corrected CMIP6 climate projections

This dataset provides the results of a global variance decomposition of downscaled and bias-corrected CMIP6 climate projections. The total projection variance for a set of climate metrics is partitioned into contributions from: scenario uncertainty, model/GCM uncertainty, downscaling and bias-correction uncertainty, and interannual variability. The contribution from each source is expressed as a percentage of the total variance. Seven climate metrics are analyzed: Annual average temperature (avg_tas.nc) Annual total precipitation (tot_pr.nc) Annual maximum of daily maximum temperature (max_tasmax.nc) Annual maximum 1-day precipitation (max_pr.nc) Annual number of extremely hot days (hot_days.nc) Annual number of extremely wet days (wet_days.nc) Annual number of dry days (dry_days.nc) Extremely hot/wet days are defined to occur when temperature/precipitation exceeds the local 99th percentile defined over 1980-2014. Dry days are defined to occur when daily precipitation is less than 1mm. all_metrics_timesliced.nc gives the results for all metrics averaged over three 20-year periods: 2020-2039, 2050-2069, 2080-2099. For more details on the methods, see: Lafferty & Sriver, Downscaling and bias-correction contribute considerable uncertainty to local climate projections in CMIP6, npj Climate & Atmospheric Science (2023) An interactive visualization of this data can be found at: https://lafferty-sriver-2023-downscaling-uncertainty.msdlive.org

Lafferty, David↗

Powered by dGen Webinar [Slides]

NLR's Powered By Webinar Series featuring NLR's dGen Modeling Tool. The Distributed Generation Market Demand (dGenTM) model simulates customer adoption of distributed energy resources for residential, commercial, and industrial entities in the United States or other countries through 2050. The model enables analysis at multiple geographic levels (national, state, and utility, or below) and offers sophistication in representation of decision-making regarding economic and behavioral considerations. Analysts have used dGen to answer questions about load forecasting and integrated resource planning, policy analysis, locational value of distributed energy resources, and more. dGen is open source, and various energy organizations - including independent system operators, regional transmission organizations, and the California Energy Commission - use the model internally.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

U.S. Distribution Transformer Demand Phase III - Key Drivers and Managing Demand [Slides]

This presentation demonstrates a significant analysis, on forecasting the demand for distribution transformers. The analysis is conducted for the United States, estimating the initial in-service capacity of these assets, and forecasting demand for these assets through 2050 with several sensitivities conducted. It examines not only demand for these assets, but importantly, how utility planning practices can impact the demand for theses assets in time. Under load growth scenarios, whether utilities practice like-for-like replacement strategies as failures occur, or whether they practice proactive up-sizing, anticipating electric load growth, can have major impacts on future demand. It also examines several other growth factors, such as the increasing demand for step-up transformers, which share many of the same characteristics as distribution transformers, and the demand for specific transformers for large project growth from data centers.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

From Vehicles to Systems: Understanding Freight Transportation as a Connected Energy, Infrastructure, and Operations System

The U.S. freight system may need to handle 50% more cargo by 2050. Upgrading our freight system requires modernizing capital-intensive, long-lived assets including freight trains, ports, and terminal infrastructure. NLR is advancing freight system solutions spanning ALTRIOS, the first digital twin for the full freight rail system; ALTRIOS-LIFTS, which can create digital twins of freight terminals; INFORMES, the first national model of the intermodal freight system; MARINESim, used to simulate and optimize ocean-going vessel operations; and more. These modeling and simulation tools enable data-driven decision-making across freight modes and systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Analyze Landscape of Solar Panel Installations and Retirements - Solar Prize Round 7 (CRADA CRD-24-30364 Final Report)

By projecting the solar capacity until 2050 at a granular, census tract level, we aim to define Participant's Total Addressable Market for Electra's registration service and examine the volumes and locations of panels reaching end-of-life with corresponding state policies and planned recycling locales. This dual-faceted data will be pivotal in developing a sustainable, per-watt pricing strategy for our state central funds and key areas for collection hubs, ensuring these volumes can adequately support our collection, hauling, and recycling provider network.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Electrification Futures Study Flexible Load Profiles

This data set includes hourly profiles for flexible load developed for the Electrification Futures Study (EFS). The load profiles represent projected end-use electricity demand that is assumed to be flexible (i.e., can be shifted throughout a day) for various scenarios of flexibility (Base, Enhanced), electrification (Reference, Medium, High), and technology advancement (Slow, Moderate, Rapid), and were developed as inputs into the ReEDS model. The quantity of flexible load is estimated using assumptions on the level of flexibility and customer participation within each subsector modeled in the EFS. Detailed assumptions and modeling implementation will be documented in ongoing EFS analyses. Flexible load profiles are provided for a subset of years (2018, 2020, 2024, 2030, 2040, 2050) and are aggregated to the state and sector level. Total electricity load profiles can be found in a related EFS data set (https://dx.doi.org/10.7799/1593122). NOTE: Due to the file size, Mac users may experience issues decompressing the zip files using the Mac Archive Utility. In those cases, decompressing using the command line is recommended. - Mai, Trieu, Paige Jadun, Jeffrey Logan, Colin McMillan, Matteo Muratori, Daniel Steinberg, Laura Vimmerstedt, Ryan Jones, Benjamin Haley, and Brent Nelson. 2018. Electrification Futures Study: Scenarios of Electric Technology Adoption and Power Consumption for the United States. National Renewable Energy Laboratory. NREL/TP-6A20-71500. https://doi.org/10.2172/1459351. - Murphy, Caitlin, Trieu Mai, Yinong Sun, Paige Jadun, Matteo Muratori, Brent Nelson, Ryan Jones. Forthcoming. Electrification Futures Study: Scenarios of Power System Evolution and Infrastructure Development for the United States. National Renewable Energy Laboratory. - Sun, Yinong, Paige Jadun, Brent Nelson, Matteo Muratori, Caitlin Murphy, Jeffrey Logan, and Trieu Mai. Forthcoming. Electrification Futures Study: Methodological Approaches for Assessing Long-Term Power System Impacts of End-Use Electrification. National Renewable Energy Laboratory.

buildings↗

2020 Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) Cost and Performance Data for Transportation Technologies

The 2020 Transportation Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) provides detailed cost and performance data, estimates, and assumptions for vehicle and fuel technologies in the United States. The Transportation ATB includes current and projected estimates through 2050 for light-duty vehicle technologies as well as conventional and alternative fuels. This excel files include vehicle, fuel, and joined vehicle and fuel data with calculated levelized cost and emission values associated with the 2020 Transportation ATB. NREL has also provided a Tableau workbook to further explore the data. A website documents this data at https://atb.nlr.gov .

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Availability Estimates of Low-Cost, Dispatch-Constrained Electricity (LDE)

This dataset accompanies the report "Potential Availability of and Supply Curves for Low-Cost, Dispatch-Constrained Electricity", which provides initial estimates of the quantity and availability of the potential low-cost, dispatch-constrained electricity (LDE) resource in the United States under scenarios with high variable renewable energy (VRE) penetrations. The analysis also estimates supply curves that can be used in subsequent analysis of the opportunity to use the LDE. The estimated LDE resource could be used for various applications that value low-cost electricity and can operate at reduced capacity factors, including electrolytic hydrogen production and carbon capture. The analysis accompanying this dataset was performed in 2018-2019 to support an analysis of "The Technical and Economic Potential of the H2@Scale Concept within the United States" ( https://www.nlr.gov/docs/fy21osti/77610.pdf ). This dataset includes the quantity of estimated LDE resource for each hour of the year in 2050, aggregated to both the national level and the ReEDS balancing area level. As described in the accompanying report, the ReEDS model was used to project the evolution of the power sector over time. Links to the mapping of ReEDS balancing areas to states and ReEDS balancing area shape files are provided. This dataset also includes the report figure data.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Q1 2023 U.S. Solar Photovoltaic System and Energy Storage Cost Benchmarks With Minimum Sustainable Price Analysis Data File

The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO) aims to accelerate the advancement and deployment of solar technology in support of an equitable transition to a decarbonized economy no later than 2050, starting with a decarbonized power sector by 2035. Its approach to achieving this goal includes driving innovations in technology, hardware, and soft cost reductions to make solar affordable and accessible for all. As part of this effort, SETO must track solar cost trends so it can focus its research and development (R&D) on the highest-impact activities. The benchmarks in this report are bottom-up cost estimates of all major inputs to PV and energy storage system installations. Bottom-up costs are based on national averages and do not necessarily represent typical costs in all local markets. Like last year's report, this year's report includes two distinct sets of benchmarks: minimum sustainable price (MSP) benchmarks and modeled market price (MMP) benchmarks. MSP benchmarks can be interpreted as the minimum price a company needs to charge to remain financially solvent in the long term based on the minimum sustainable prices of all inputs including minimum sustainable profit margins. MMP benchmarks can be interpreted as the actual cash sales price a company charges in the given benchmark period. These simplified estimates are useful for tracking technological progress, but they do not reflect all experiences. In fact, no individual estimate under any approach can reflect the diversity of the PV and storage manufacturing and installation industries.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Workbooks for Cambium 2024 Data

These workbooks contain a subset of cost and emissions data from the 2024 Cambium datasets, with levelization calculations to assist users in translating Cambium’s year-over-year values to a representative value for a user-specified project timeline. These workbooks provide modeled data for 18 GEA regions covering the contiguous United States, projected forward through 2050. Mappings of these regions to ZIP codes and counties is given within this workbook in the corresponding tabs. For the full Cambium 2024 data sets, see the Cambium 2024 project on NREL's Scenario Viewer. For more details on input assumptions and methodology see the associated report: Cambium 2024 Scenario Descriptions and Documentation. Users are advised to review section 4 of the report, which discusses limitations and caveats of the data. This data is planned to be updated annually. Information on the latest versions can be found on the NREL energy analysis page on Cambium.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Time-Dependent Structure of the Upper Atmosphere

The physical properties of the upper atmosphere are determined mainly by heat conduction, the heat sources and the barometric law. An analysis of the integro-differential equation which describes these physical processes has been carried out. It is found that heating of the thermosphere due to absorption of the solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) radiation alone cannot explain the observed diurnal variation of density and temperature, since it would yield a maximum of these properties at about 17h local time, instead of 14h where it is observed. Secondly, if the EUV flux is adjusted to give the observed average temperature, then the diurnal variation in density would be much too large compared with the observed amplitude. Thirdly, it would require an extremely high efficiency for the conversion of EUV radiation into heat, if we compare the required flux with Hinteregger's measurements of the EUV flux. Thus, it is necessary to have another heat source in addition to the heating due to absorption of EUV radiation. If an additional beat source is used, which has a maximum at about 9h local time and a flux of 1 erg cm−1 sec−1, a time-dependent model of the upper atmosphere is obtained that is in good agreement with the observed densities. There is evidence that this additional heat source derives its energy ultimately from the solar corpuscular radiation. In this paper we present the results of calculations for a model in the equatorial and temperature zones of the earth, for those times when the average solar activity corresponds to a solar radiation flux of 200×110−22 Wm−2 (cps)−1 at 10.7-cm wavelength. The physical properties (temperature, density, pressure, scale height, mean molecular weight and the number densities of N2, O2, O, He and H) are given as a function of local time and for the altitudes between 120 km and 2050 km.

ATMOSPHERE↗

Heat treatment procedure to increase ductility of degraded nickel alloy

Tests demonstrate the room temperature ductility of degraded Rene 41 can be increased to acceptable values by solution heat treatment at a temperature of 2050 degrees to 2150 degrees F /1 to 2 hours/ and cooling through a controlled temperature range followed by normal aging in air /16 hours at 1400 degrees F/.

Prager, M.↗

Evaluation of coatings for cobalt- and nickel-base superalloys, volume 2

The final results of an oxidation-reduction rig evaluation of aluminide coatings are presented, as applied to 1N-100 and B1900 nickel-base and X-10 and WI-52 cobalt-base alloys. Burner rigs were used which operated on JP-5 fuel and air, producing a gas velocity of 0.85 (2000 to 2500 ft/sec) at the specimen's leading edge. One-hour heating cycles were used with three minutes of air blast cooling. Results of testing at temperatures ranging from T sub max of 1850 to 2050 F indicate that coated B1900 has the longest oxidation life at all temperatures, followed by IN-100X-40WI-52, based on a weight change criterion. Coatings on nickel-base alloys provided more than twice the life of coating on cobalt-base alloys at comparable temperatures. The coatings with higher aluminum content and comparable thickness had longer lives. Silicon appeared to be a beneficial additive in the nickel-base alloy coatings for long term, low temperature life, but not for short term, high temperature performance. Chromium was identified in all coatings. Extrapolating the life results obtained to 1600 F, all the selected coatings on the four alloys would be protective for at least 10,000 hours.

Moore, V. S.↗