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DOE OSTI2021

Error-Level-Controlled Synthetic Forecasts for Renewable Generation

Renewable energy resources, including solar and wind energy, play a significant role in sustainable energy systems. However, the inherent uncertainty and intermittency of renewable generation pose challenges to the safe and efficient operation of power systems. Recognizing the importance of short-term (hours ahead) renewable generation forecasting in power systems operation, it becomes crucial to address the potential inaccuracies in these forecasts. To systematically evaluate the performance of controllers in the presence of imperfect forecasts, we generate synthetic forecasts using actual renewable generation profiles (one from solar and one from wind). These synthetic forecasts incorporate different levels of statistical error, allowing us to control and manipulate the accuracy of the predictions. The primary objective is to employ synthetic forecasts with controlled yet realistic error levels to systematically investigate how controllers adapt to variations in forecast accuracy, providing valuable insights into their robustness and effectiveness under real-world conditions.

Array↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Circular Economy Lifecycle Assessment and Visualization Framework: A Case Study of Wind Blade Circularity in Texas

Moving the current linear economy toward circularity is expected to have environmental, economic, and social impacts. Various modeling methods, including economic input-output modeling, life cycle assessment, agent-based modeling, and system dynamics, have been used to examine circular supply chains and analyze their impacts. This work describes the newly developed Circular Economy Lifecycle Assessment and Visualization (CELAVI) framework, which is designed to model how the impacts of supply chains might change as circularity increases. We first establish the framework with a discussion of modeling capabilities that are needed to capture circularity transitions; these capabilities are based on the fact that supply chains moving toward circularity are dynamic and therefore not at steady state, may encompass multiple industrial sectors or other interdependent supply chains and occupy a large spatial area. To demonstrate the capabilities of CELAVI, we present a case study on end-of-life wind turbine blades in the U.S. state of Texas. Our findings show that depending on exact process costs and transportation distances, mechanical recycling could lead to 69% or more of end-of-life turbine blade mass being kept in circulation rather than being landfilled, with only a 7.1% increase in global warming potential over the linear supply chain. We discuss next steps for framework development.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hydropower operation in future power grid with various renewable power integration

Hydropower generation may play an increasingly important role in the power grid under increasing contribution of variable renewable sources such as wind and solar. An improved understanding of the changes to hydropower dispatch under future higher VRE grid conditions reveals research gap that should be informed power grid planning and reservoir water releases policies considering multiple other water uses and varying hydrologic condition. Here this study aims to understand the role of hydropower in a changing power grid by employing a production cost model, PLEXOS, across future power system scenarios, planning horizons, and regions. We explore optimized hydropower dispatch to understand its potential role in minimizing the system cost and renewable curtailment. We also examine the sensitivity of hydropower revenue under various grid scenarios of the Eastern U.S. and hydrology conditions. Results indicate hydropower generation follows net load and compensates for the variability of solar and wind generation. Although energy prices are lower during some periods in the future grid scenarios, there is a potential for higher revenue for hydropower by providing both energy and ancillary services during times of stress. Additionally, hydropower revenue is sensitive to hydrology in the SERC region, which we considered as an example. The feasibility of hydropower dispatching with higher ramps between low and high hourly-capacity factors, as indicated in the optimization model, requires further study to consider other water use and ecology constraints.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Conceptual Designs of the Structure of Inflatable Blades for Enabling Larger Turbines

Over the last couple of decades, increasingly larger rotor diameters have enabled significant reductions in the levelized cost of energy for wind through higher energy capture and improved capacity factors. But for onshore turbines, this has been met with manufacturing and transportation challenges. To enable larger onshore rotors, an innovative inflatable blade concept is investigated that employs both traditional and onsite manufacturing. The design architecture consists primarily of an inflatable aerodynamic shell attached to a factory-manufactured primary structure. Multiple architectures, cross-sectional topologies, and material combinations for the primary structure are investigated, as well as multiple skin materials. Structural cross-sectional characteristics are compared to a traditional blade, and inflatability and cost evaluations are presented. Results show that a box-beam architecture using only composite materials yields significant mass reduction with mature technologies/processes and modest cost decrease compared to traditional blade construction. This low-TRL study demonstrates the inflatable blade concept's techno-economic potential.

49 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Wind (EE-4W↗
DOE OSTI2020

High-resolution X-ray spectroscopy of the stellar wind in Vela X-1 during a flare

In this work, we present a ~130 ks observation of the prototypical wind-accreting, high-mass X-ray binary Vela X-1 collected with XMM-Newton at orbital phases between 0.12 and 0.28. A strong flare took place during the observation that allows us to investigate the reaction of the clumpy stellar wind to the increased X-ray irradiation. To examine the wind’s reaction to the flare, we performed both time-averaged and time-resolved analyses of the RGS spectrum and examined potential spectral changes. We focused on the high-resolution XMM-Newton RGS spectra and divided the observation into pre-flare, flare, and post-flare phases. We modeled the time-averaged and time-resolved spectra with phenomenological components and with the self-consistent photoionization models calculated via CLOUDY and XSTAR in the pre-flare phase, where strong emission lines due to resonant transitions of highly ionized ions are seen. In the spectra, we find emission lines corresponding to K-shell transitions in highly charged ions of oxygen, neon, magnesium, and silicon as well as radiative recombination continua (RRC) of oxygen. Additionally, we observe potential absorption lines of magnesium at a lower ionization stage and features identified as iron L lines. The, CLOUDY and XSTAR photoionization models provide contradictory results, either pointing towards uncertainties in theory or possibly a more complex multi-phase plasma, or both. We are able to demonstrate the existence of a plethora of variable narrow features, including the firm detection of oxygen lines and RRC that RGS enables to observe in this source for the first time. We show that Vela X-1 is an ideal source for future high-resolution missions, such as XRISM and Athena.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhanced joining strength in additive-manufactured polylactic-acid structures fused by embedded heated metallic meshes

Additively manufactured thermoplastic polymers, such as polylactic acid (PLA), hold significant promise for sustainable engineering structures, including wind turbine blades. Upscaling these structures beyond the limitations of 3D printer build volumes is a challenge; fusion joining presents a potential solution. This paper introduces a displacement-controlled resistance welding process for PLA, as an alternative to the typical force-controlled methods. Here, we investigated the bonding quality of resistance-welded and adhesive-bonded PLA beams through three-point bending and measured the surface deformations using digital image correlation. Different metal meshes (30%/0.11 mm Ni—Cu, 34%/0.07 mm Ni—Cu, and 36%/0.25 mm Co—Ni) served as heating elements. The process parameters were varied for the 34%/0.07 mm Ni—Cu mesh to identify an optimum set of parameters. Results showed that this optimized displacement-controlled welding achieved 94% of the original strength of monolithic samples. This indicates that the new welding process not only ensures high-quality bonding and fine surface finishing but also promotes sustainability, recyclability, and economic efficiency in various polymer and composite structural applications.

Additive manufacturing↗
DOE OSTI2020

NNSS Soils Monitoring: Plutonium Valley (CAU 366) FY2019

Desert Research Institute (DRI) conducted a field assessment of the potential for radionuclide-contaminated soil to be transported from the Plutonium Valley Dispersion Sites Contamination Area (CA) because of both wind and storm water runoff. This activity supported U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Environmental Management Nevada Program (EM NV) efforts to establish post-closure monitoring plans for the Plutonium Valley Dispersion Sites Corrective Action Unit (CAU) 366. The DRI task was intended to identify the likely mechanism(s) of transport and determine the meteorological conditions that might cause the movement of radionuclide-contaminated soils. The emphasis of the work was on collecting sediment transported by channelized storm runoff and measuring airborne dust concentrations and associated wind conditions. These data will facilitate an appropriate post-closure monitoring program. In 2011, DRI installed meteorological monitoring stations north and south of the Plutonium Valley CA—known as Pu Valley North and Pu Valley South, respectively—as well as a fluvial sediment sampling station within the CA. Since installation, temperature, wind speed, wind direction, relative humidity, precipitation, solar radiation, barometric pressure, soil temperature, volumetric soil moisture content, and airborne particulate concentrations have been collected at both meteorological stations. The maximum, minimum, and average or total (as appropriate) for each of these parameters were recorded for each 10-minute interval. The sediment sampling station included an automatically activated sampling pump with collection bottles for suspended sediment, which was activated when sufficient flow was present in the channel, and passive traps for bedload material that was transported down the channel during runoff events. This report presents data collected from these stations during fiscal year (FY) 2019. During the FY2019 (October 1, 2018, through September 30, 2019) reporting period, the warmest month was July and the coldest month was February. Monthly total solar radiation was highest in June or July (depending on the station) and lowest in December. Monthly mean wind speeds were highest during February. At the Pu Valley North station, winds were commonly northerly, northwesterly, and southerly. At the Pu Valley South station, the wind direction was more variable and winds frequently came from most directions, excluding westerly and northwesterly winds. Winds above 15.0 miles per hour (mph) (24.1 kilometers per hour [km/hr]) were frequently southerly at both stations, and less-frequent strong winds were northerly (at the Pu Valley South station) or northwesterly (at the Pu Valley North station). Monthly average relative humidity ranged from 18 percent in August to 62 percent in January and February. Monthly total precipitation ranged from zero at both stations in September to 2.23 inches (in) (56.6 millimeters [mm]) during February at the Pu Valley South station and 2.09 in (53.1 mm) during March at the Pu Valley North station. From October 1, 2018, through September 30, 2019, the total precipitation was 8.23 in (209 mm) and 8.15 in (207 mm) at the Pu Valley South and Pu Valley North stations, respectively. The largest daily precipitation totals of 1.46 in (37.1 mm) and 1.14 in (29.0 mm) occurred at the Pu Valley South and Pu Valley North stations, respectively, on March 6, 2019. However, the ISCO autosampler was not activated during any storm event in FY2019 because the channel water depth measurements were insufficient for suspended sediment sample collection. Additionally, because no significant flow through the channel was indicated, no bedload samples were collected. Light breezes of 0.0 mph to 5.0 mph (0.0 km/hr to 8.0 km/hr) occurred most frequently (approximately 55 percent to 57 percent of the time). The frequency of occurrence diminished exponentially as the wind speed increased such that winds in excess of 25.0 mph (40.2 km/hr) occurred less than 0.01 percent of the time. Winds in excess of 15.0 mph (24.1 km/hr) were most commonly southerly, which is likely controlled by the topography of the valley because topographic highs define the east and west sides of the valley and converge toward the north.The concentrations of PM2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter ≤2.5 micrometers [μm]) and PM10 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter ≤10 μm) in the air generally increase as wind speed increases. However, the particle profiler at the Pu Valley South station regularly malfunctioned, which resulted in poor data quality and a limited period of record within FY2019. Therefore, discussion of the annual dust observations is mostly limited to the Pu Valley North station. At the Pu Valley North station, significant increases in windblown dust concentrations were observed when wind speeds exceeded 15.0 mph (24.1 km/hr), especially during southerly winds. When all wind speeds were considered, high dust concentrations at the Pu Valley North station were frequently associated with northerly, northwesterly, or southerly winds. The majority of PM10 transport at the Pu Valley North station occurred when winds were blowing northerly and northwesterly because of the high frequency of winds up to 15.0 mph (24.1 km/hr). The ratio of PM10 to PM2.5 is a qualitative indicator of the proximity of dust sources to the observation point and the values of the PM10 to PM2.5 ratio tend to be higher nearer to the source. The PM10 to PM2.5 ratio increased from 1.2 to 2.8 with higher wind speeds at the Pu Valley North station. This increase suggests that some locally sourced PM10 was present in the air when local winds exceeded 15.0 mph (24.1 km/hr). Local dust suspension is interpreted during major dust events when peaks in the PM10 to PM2.5 ratio occur simultaneously with the maximum wind speed and the peak PM10 concentration. Analysis of the five major dust events in FY2019 revealed that northerly winds were dominant in three events and southerly winds were dominant in two events. Local suspension of dust within Plutonium Valley is suspected to have occurred during two of the five major events (April 9, 2019, and September 28 to 29, 2019), and a nonlocal source of dust is presumed for the three other major dust events (October 14, 2018; May 16, 2019; and September 2, 2019). The three suspected regional dust transport events exhibited winds that typically did not exceed the 15.0 mph (24.1 km/hr) wind speed threshold for local dust transport and featured PM10 to PM2.5 ratios that indicate large-scale regional dust transport. Similar event characteristics (e.g., wind speed and PM10 concentration) were observed at air monitoring stations approximately 70 mi (113 km) to the northwest within the Tonopah Test Range (TTR). Therefore, these three regional events may not reflect transport from the Plutonium Valley CA. Routine monitoring of meteorological and hydrologic parameters at Plutonium Valley has been discontinued at the request of EM NV, effective at the conclusion of FY2019. Environmental data acquisition has been completed, and both Pu Valley North and Pu Valley South meteorological stations within Plutonium Valley as well as the ISCO autosampler station within the CA were removed on October 14, 2019.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Projecting Future Colorado River Basin Water and Hydropower Operations

Drought, variable renewable energy (VRE) resources (primarily wind and photovoltaic technologies), and power markets can all impact hydropower plant operations. We analyze how these three factors collectively may potentially change the future operation and economics of federal dams and hydropower plants located in the Colorado River Basin (CRB). Federal CRB energy and capacity resources, including 4,200 MW of hydropower capacity, are marketed by Western Area Power Administration (WAPA) and sold through long-term Firm Electric Service (FES) contracts to entities located in 15 western and central States that serve millions of electricity consumers. The parameters of FES contracts allow a wide range of scheduling flexibility for FES customers. The FES customers will adjust the timing of energy delivery according to the changing water, power market, and VRE contribution level to the power grid. We simulate and project water and hydropower operations with two models: 1) reservoir operation and 2) power system operation (production cost) with various temporal granularity. We consider two sets of grid scenarios (one representing today's infrastructure, and one representing higher VRE contributions in 2036) and two sets of water scenarios (drought and normal hydrology). We modeled scenarios to understand the power market-energy price levels and patterns, FES customer scheduling, hydropower economics, WAPA finances and hydropower operation for various hydrologic conditions, and VRE contribution level to the power grid. The detailed modeling framework includes: (1) creating ensembles of CRB hydrologic and hydropower futures, (2) selecting representative futures, (3) simulation of FES customer contracts, (4) simulating western U.S. power grid economic scheduling and dispatch under two VRE contribution levels, utilizing information from modeling steps (1)-(4), (5) assessment of reservoir water and hydropower operation, and (6) comparing scenario operations and economics. Our study team comprising WAPA, and an interdisciplinary team of national labs will gain insight into how WAPA can prepare for and adapt its practices in response to an evolving U.S. power grid.

Colorado River↗
DOE OSTI2024

Preliminary Workforce Development and Environmental and Co-use Management Plans for a Floating Offshore Wind Platform - CRADA 609 (Final Report)

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) provided technical assistance to Glosten, Inc. and its affiliate, PelaStar, LLC to advance the development of their floating offshore wind (FOSW) platform. PNNL provided guidance and assessment in two areas that are important to address in the development of FOSW platforms: (1) workforce development and (2) environmental impacts and ocean co-use considerations. This work was funded by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Wind Energy Technologies Office (WETO) through Phase 2 of the FLoating Offshore Wind ReadINess (FLOWIN) Prize. It should be noted that the Plans presented in this report are specific to the PelaStar tension-leg platform (TLP) and may not be applicable to all FOSW platforms. Workforce development and environmental/co-use impacts are highly dependent on the geographical region in which activities take place. At the request of PelaStar, PNNL focused on two regions where development may take place: the Gulf of Maine and Northern California. PNNL generated a preliminary Workforce Development Plan for PelaStar, which includes estimated job numbers and skillsets required to establish a workforce to manufacture, install, and operate their platform as part of FOSW projects. The Plan offers methods to increase diversity, equity, and inclusion practices when developing a new workforce and includes colleges and training centers for potential recruitment. Both positive and negative impacts to communities are evaluated, with potential mitigation strategies for reducing negative impacts. The structure of Community Benefit Agreements and Project Labor Agreements are discussed, noting the limitations of the role of a platform manufacturer versus the offshore wind developer. PNNL also drafted a preliminary Environmental and Co-Use Management Plan that serves as a guide to preparing an environmental assessment related to the installation and operation of PelaStar’s unique TLP design, including its potential ecological, socioeconomic, and emissions impacts. The Plan summarizes information on relevant regulatory requirements, potential impact producing factors, monitoring and mitigation measures, and physical and biological resources in the Gulf of Maine and Northern California. One of the primary perceived benefits of the PelaStar TLP is its reduced footprint due to its tensioned tendons versus catenary or taut moorings, but more research must be done as there are no studies on PelaStar’s TLP system to-date. The section also highlights ocean co-use considerations for PelaStar’s TLP system, specifically for fisheries, including existing perspectives, methods, examples, and limitations. The PNNL team established through this preliminary work and review of available literature and resources that there is not yet much research or planning around FOSW. With FOSW being a new industry, many of the findings and planning are adapted from fixed bottom offshore wind, which itself is only just taking off in the United States. More research is needed to establish best practices for workforce development and to assess environmental and ocean co-use impacts and mitigation approaches.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Accomplishments and Year-End Performance Report; Wind Energy Program: Fiscal Year 2021

The National Wind Technology Center (NWTC), located at the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Flatirons Campus, has been a driving force in advancing wind energy technology research worldwide since its designation as a DOE national research center in 1992. Enabled by the Flatirons Campus's world-class facilities, scientists, engineers, analysts, and researchers are pushing the frontiers of science to pursue wind energy innovation. In Fiscal Year (FY) 2021, NREL continued to provide the technical expertise, research capabilities, and industry understanding to support DOE's ambitious climate action and research goals by advancing technology, addressing market and deployment barriers, and driving down costs with more efficient, reliable, and predictable wind energy systems. One of several highlights, NREL received an R&D 100 Special Recognition Award for its Thermoplastic Resin System for Wind Turbine Blades. This breakthrough in the wind turbine manufacturing process will enable the production of recyclable blades that are stronger, longer, and less expensive, while increasing energy capture, decreasing energy and transportation costs, and increasing blade reliability. In a year when the entire U.S. economy struggled to address workforce gaps, an NREL study compared wind industry needs, training programs, and hiring practices with perspectives from students and recent college graduates. Researchers hope that, by pinpointing areas of disconnect, the expectations of employers who have difficulty filling entry-level jobs can better align with the preparation of the potential applicants who find it hard to break into the field. The lab also made numerous new data and modeling resources available in FY 2021. Recent NREL releases include a modeling tool for predicting the power performance and structural loads of wind turbines within a wind farm (FAST.Farm), a computational framework for modeling golden eagle behavior near wind farms, and 20 years of offshore wind data. Updates were also made to the widely used Wind Plant Integrated Systems Design and Engineering Model (WISDEM), which couples engineering and cost models to examine system-level trade-offs. Now, bolstered by a renewed national commitment to tackle climate change and revitalize the U.S. economy through increased investment in clean energy - particularly in offshore wind energy - NREL stands poised to lead the way to a sustainable future that powers the United States with significant levels of reliable, low-cost, accessible wind energy. This report provides an overview of the achievements NREL made on behalf of DOE's Wind Energy Technologies Office (WETO) and other partners during FY 2021 (between Oct. 1, 2020, and Sept. 30, 2021).

Flatirons Campus↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Review of Distributed Wind Interconnection Technology and Standards

The objectives of this report are to discuss the uniqueness of power converters in distributed wind (DW), identify challenges in complying with existing standards, prioritize technological innovations to facilitate interconnection of DW energy systems, and, where necessary, propose potential clarifications or revisions to standards. This report evaluates IEEE 1547-2018, IEEE 1547.1-2020, and UL 1741 SB standards and their implications for DW. A standards review and interviews of DW industry stakeholders were conducted to identify challenges in the application of current standards to DW. The study concludes with a combination of recommendations of pathways towards facilitating DW product commercialization and DW interconnection, which draws on participation from multiple stakeholders in the space. These solutions can continue to be explored to improve DW standards compliance, improve the applicability of the standards to DW, reduce certification testing barriers, and ensure the safe and reliable operation of DW energy resources and electric power systems.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Upstream surface roughness and terrain are strong drivers of contrast in tornado potential between North and South America

Central North America is the global hotspot for tornadoes, fueled by elevated terrain of the Rockies to the west and a source of warm, moist air from equatorward oceans. This conventional wisdom argues that central South America, with the Andes to the west and Amazon basin to the north, should have a “tornado alley” at least as active as central North America. Central South America has frequent severe thunderstorms yet relatively few tornadoes. Here, we show that conventional wisdom is missing an important ingredient specific to tornadoes: a smooth, flat ocean-like upstream surface. Using global climate model experiments, we show that central South American tornado potential substantially increases if its equatorward land surface is smoothed and flattened to be ocean-like. Similarly, we show that central North American tornado potential substantially decreases if its equatorward ocean surface is roughened to values comparable to forested land. A rough upstream surface suppresses the formation of tornadic environments principally by weakening the poleward low-level winds, characterized by a weakened low-level jet east of the mountain range. Results are shown to be robust for any midlatitude landmass using idealized experiments with a simplified continent and mountain range. Our findings indicate that large-scale upstream surface roughness is likely a first-order driver of the strong contrast in tornado potential between North and South America.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Marine energy converters: Potential acoustic effects on fishes and aquatic invertebrates

The potential effects of underwater anthropogenic sound and substrate vibration from offshore renewable energy development on the behavior, fitness, and health of aquatic animals is a continuing concern with increased deployments and installation of these devices. Initial focus of related studies concerned offshore wind. However, over the past decade, marine energy devices, such as a tidal turbines and wave energy converters, have begun to emerge as additional, scalable renewable energy sources. Because marine energy converters (MECs) are not as well-known as other anthropogenic sources of potential disturbance, their general function and what is known about the sounds and substrate vibrations that they produce are introduced. Furthermore, while most previous studies focused on MECs and marine mammals, this paper considers the potential of MECs to cause acoustic disturbances affecting nearshore and tidal fishes and invertebrates. In particular, the focus is on particle motion and substrate vibration from MECs because these effects are the most likely to be detected by these animals. Finally, an analysis of major data gaps in understanding the acoustics of MECs and their potential impacts on fishes and aquatic invertebrates and recommendations for research needed over the next several years to improve understanding of these potential impacts are provided.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2023

Clean Energy Employment Impacts

Wind (land-based), solar (photovoltaics), and energy efficiency (buildings) are three key clean energy technologies identified in the NREL State-Level Employment Projections for Four Clean Energy Technologies in 2025 and 2030 report with continued growth potential. This document outlines how communities and regions will experience differing levels of employment impacts due to resource, labor market, and geographic factors.

clean energy↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multi-year assessment of the impact of ship-borne radiosonde observations on polar WRF forecasts in the Arctic

Abstract To compensate for the lack of conventional observations over the Arctic Ocean, ship-borne radiosonde observations have been regularly carried out during summer Arctic expeditions and the observed data have been broadcast via the global telecommunication system since 2017. With these data obtained over the data-sparse Arctic Ocean, observing system experiments were carried out using a polar-optimized version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the WRF Data Assimilation (WRFDA) system to investigate their effects on analyses and forecasts over the Arctic. The results of verification against reanalysis data reveal: (1) DA effects on analyses and forecasts; (2) the reason for the year-to-year variability of DA effects; and (3) the possible role of upper-level potential vorticity in delayed DA effects. The overall assimilation effects of the extra data on the analyses and forecasts over the Arctic are positive. Initially, the DA effects are the most apparent in the temperature variables in the middle/lower troposphere, which spread to the wind variables in the upper troposphere. The effects decrease with time but reappear after approximately 120 h, even in the 240-h forecasts. The effects on forecasts vary depending on the proximity of the radiosonde observation locations to the high synoptic variability. The upper-level potential vorticity is known to play an important role in the development of Arctic cyclones, and it is suggested as a possible explanation for the delayed DA effects after about 120 h.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multiscale Electricity Modeling for Evaluating Carbon Capture and Sequestration Technologies (Final Report)

Carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies that can operate with a high degree of operating flexibility could provide necessary electric grid flexibility in a system with high shares of variable renewables. This project examines the deployment and dispatch potential of twelve unique flexible CCS (FLECCS) technologies that encompass post-combustion carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) capture designs, concepts using a storage media to enable energy arbitrage, and hybrid processes that integrate CCS with direct air capture (DAC) for flexibility with net zero or negative CO 2 emissions. FLECCS technology potential is explored with a multi-model, multi-scale framework including the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electric sector capacity expansion model (CEM) and the PLEXOS production cost model (PCM). Innovative methods were developed to represent FLECCS technology operating modes, performance, and cost in the two models. ReEDS was then used to simulate nine scenarios for each FLECCS technology, three CO 2 emissions price futures reaching $\$$150, $\$$225, and $\$$300/tCO 2 in 2050; and three scenarios for FLECCS technology deployment favorability relative to competing technologies. For each CO 2 price and reference FLECCS favorability, the 2050 infrastructures from ReEDS model are downscaled and implemented in PLEXOS to examine hourly dispatch under detailed operational constraints that are not included in ReEDS. FLECCS technologies exhibited a wide range of deployment potential ranging from none to several hundred gigawatts of capacity, with outcomes highly sensitive to input cost and performance parameters that are inherently highly uncertain. When deployed, FLECCS tended to displace a combination of wind, solar, and natural gas-based technologies rather than supporting increased renewable deployment. As a result, CO 2 emissions reductions facilitated by FLECCS deployment tended to come with higher overall system costs and electricity prices. When economically competitive, FLECCS technologies can contribute significant flexible generation and firm capacity to the grid, but continued technology development and an expanded analytical scope are necessary to fully understand FLECCS deployment potential its impact on the electric power sector. Follow-on analysis incorporating captured CO 2 tax credit value from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and other potential policy scenarios could be particularly valuable, as this policy can substantially change the relative competitiveness of FLECCS technologies.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Innovative rail transport of a supersized land-based wind turbine blade

Wind turbine blade logistic providers are being challenged with escalating costs and routing complexities as one-piece blade approach lengths of 75 m in various regions of the U.S. land-based market. New lower cost solutions are needed to enable further reductions in the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) and continued market expansion. In this paper, a novel method of using existing U.S. rail infrastructure to deploy 100-m, one-piece blades to U.S. land-based wind sites is numerically investigated. The study removes the constraint that blades must be kept rigid during transport, and it allows bending to keep blades within a clearance profile while navigating horizontal and vertical curvatures. Novel system optimization and blade design processes consider blade structural constraints and rail logistic constraints in parallel to develop a highly flexible, rail-transportable blade. Results indicate maximum deployment potential in the Interior region of the United States and limited deployment potential in other regions. The study concludes that innovative rail transportation solutions combined with advanced rotor technologies can provide a feasible alternative to segmentation and support continued LCOE reductions in the U.S. land-based wind energy market.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Projecting Future Energy Production from Operating Wind Farms in North America. Part III: Variability

Abstract Daily expected wind power production from operating wind farms across North America are used to evaluate capacity factors (CF) computed using simulation output from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and to condition statistical models linking atmospheric conditions to electricity production. In Parts I and II of this work, we focus on making projections of annual energy production and the occurrence of electrical production drought. Here, we extend evaluation of the CF projections for sites in the Northeast, Midwest, southern Great Plains (SGP), and southwest U.S. coast (SWC) using statewide wind-generated electricity supply to the grid. We then quantify changes in the time scales of CF variability and the seasonality. Currently, wind-generated electricity is lowest in summer in each region except SWC, which causes a substantial mismatch with electricity demand. While electricity of residential heating may shift demand, research presented here suggests that summertime CF are likely to decline, potentially exacerbating the offset between seasonal peak power production and current load. The reduction in summertime CF is manifest for all regions except the SGP and appears to be linked to a reduction in synoptic-scale variability. Using fulfillment of 50% and 90% of annual energy production to quantify interannual variability, it is shown that wind power production exhibits higher (earlier fulfillment) or lower (later fulfillment) production for periods of over 10–30 years as a result of the action of internal climate modes. Significance Statement Electrical power system reassessment and redesign may be needed to aid efficient increased use of variable renewables in the generation of electricity. Currently wind-generated electricity in many regions of North America exhibits a minimum in summertime and hence is not well synchronized with electricity demand, which tends to be maximized in summer. Future projections indicate evidence of reductions in wind power during summer that would amplify this offset. However, electrification of heating may lead to increased wintertime demand, which would lead to greater synchronization.

Coburn, Jacob↗