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At least 649 records · Page 36

Relative Cost-Effectiveness of Electricity and Transportation Policies as a Means to Reduce CO2 Emissions in the United States: A Multi-Model Assessment

Two common energy policy instruments in the United States are tax incentives and technology standards. Although these instruments have been shown to be less cost-effective as a means to reduce CO2 emissions than direct emissions pricing mechanisms, it can be challenging to compare the CO2 emissions reduction costs of such policies across sectors, given the wide range in estimates for any given policy and inconsistencies in how such estimates are constructed across studies. This study addresses this analytical gap by simultaneously comparing the cost-effectiveness of policies across the electricity and transportation sectors using three publicly available US energy system models (EM-NEMS, ReEDS, and GCAM-USA). Four policies are explicitly compared: wind and solar tax credits, a renewable portfolio standard (RPS), a renewable fuel standard (RFS), and an electric vehicle (EV) tax credit. An economy-wide carbon tax is used as a benchmark for cost-effectiveness. Results from this study confirm prior insights about the cost-effectiveness of economy-wide carbon pricing relative to sectoral instruments but also reveal several novel insights about particular sectoral policies. Specifically, this study finds that (1) current electricity tax incentives provide uneven support for wind and solar technologies, (2) despite known inefficiencies, renewable energy policies in the electricity sector are less expensive than earlier estimates due to technology advancement and changes in market conditions, (3) within transportation, an expanded RFS with increasing advanced biofuel targets is more cost-effective than an EV tax credit extension under plausible assumptions, (4) EV incentives lead to a rebound in conventional vehicle fuel economy that further erodes cost-effectiveness, and (5) the change in policy costs over time is not known a priori, but the relative cost ordering among these policies does not depend on the timeframe of analysis. These results are largely robust to the underlying modeling framework, increasing the confidence with which they can be applied to climate policy evaluation.

economics↗

Calendar life of lithium metal batteries: Accelerated aging and failure analysis

Lithium metal batteries (LMBs) are prime candidates for next-generation energy storage devices characterized by their remarkable energy storage capabilities. Despite the importance of understating the calendar aging impacts in LMBs, cycle life and calendar life have received inconsistent attention across various research and development stages. For acceptance into an application, especially electric vehicles, batteries are required to have sufficient calendar life to ensure performance over the life of vehicles which often experience extended periods of inactivity. In this study, an in-depth exploration into the calendar aging of LMB (Li/ Li[Ni 0.8 Mn 0.1 Co 0.1 ]O 2 in pouch cell format) is conducted. Specifically, the impact of calendar aging factors, state-of-charge (SOC), temperature, pressure, and operating conditions (open-circuit voltage, OCV and constant voltage, CV) on the surface morphology and thickness change rate in lithium metal anode is investigated. Notably, the results show that storing LMB pouch cells at an OCV, 80 % SOC, 25 °C, and 10 psi external pressure leads to a <1% reduction in capacity over 18 months. The results also suggest routes which can be utilized in the future for accelerated aging without altering the primary degradation modes. The results also show an accelerated calendar aging at high temperatures (45 °C), 100 % SOC, and CV suggesting they may serve as key accelerated aging methods for future studies. During calendar aging, pressure mitigates dendrite growth and extends calendar life. In conclusion, the insights from this study reinforce the viability of LMBs as a compelling solution for addressing increased energy storage needs in real-world applications.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Roadmap to reach global net-zero emissions for developing regions by 2085

As climate change intensifies, determining a developing region’s role in achieving net-zero emissions worldwide is crucial. However, regional efforts, considering historical emissions, remain underexplored. Here, we assess energy system changes, technology adoption, and investments needed for developing regions, including five major- and minor-emitting nations. Our analysis, using an integrated assessment model, shows a large gap in regional efforts toward global net-zero emissions, stemming from the necessary shift of energy systems to low-carbon resources. The use of new technologies, like electric vehicles, hydrogen, and carbon capture, varies by region, with the highest adoption required between 2020 and 2030. Financing this shift needs an average gross domestic product (GDP) investment rise of 0.464% in minor-emitting regions and up to 2.1% in major-emitting regions by 2085. Our results could guide policies and support setting quantifiable targets for developing nations. The findings are key to facilitating strategic technology use and finance mobilization to achieve a carbon-neutral future.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

EV-ELM (Electric Vehicle Policies with the Energy Language Model) [SWR-25-156]

Electric Vehicle Policies with the Energy Language Model (EV-ELM) leverages previous work using Large Language Models (LLMs) to find, download, and parse policy information related to energy infrastructure. In this application, we use LLMs to find policy documents related to the permitting and installation of electric vehicle charging infrastructure. This software contains the code to find, download, and parse these documents, while a related data record in the Open Energy Data Initiative (OEDI) will include the resulting output dataset that can be used for downstream analysis. The EV-ELM repository contains code for the EV-ELM project, which focuses on retrieving and processing EV permitting processes using large language models. The project is composed of two pipelines: (1) a web scraping pipeline for discovering and downloading EV permitting documents, and (2) a document parsing and extraction pipeline that processes the downloaded files to produce structured data. The web scraping pipeline is designed to extract relevant information from various websites, while the document parsing pipeline processes and analyzes the extracted documents to derive meaningful insights. Both pipelines depend on the NLR elm repository, which provides essential tools and functionalities for handling and processing the data. The web scraping pipeline is a modified version of the ordinance_gpt example within the elm repository. It has been adapted to fit the specific requirements of the EV-ELM project, ensuring that it effectively captures and processes the necessary information related to EV permitting.

Olson, Reid [National Laboratory of the Rockies (N↗

Securing Critical Materials for the U.S. Electric Vehicle Industry: A Landscape Assessment of Domestic and International Supply Chains for Five Key Battery Materials

This study explores the prospective supply of upstream critical materials, providing insights into the U.S.'s capacity to meet its Electric Vehicle (EV) and Energy Storage System (ESS) deployment targets for 2035. It evaluates the proportion of critical materials demand that can be met by domestic upstream sources and the amount that will require non-U.S. sources. The analysis considers geological resources and current international development activities, contributing to the understanding of mineral supply security as the global community strives for net-zero emissions by 2050. The study focuses on five materials assessed in the 2023 DOE Critical Materials Assessment – Lithium, Nickel, Cobalt, Graphite, and Manganese.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Exploring Object Detection and Image Classification Tasks for Niche Use Case in Naturalistic Driving Studies

Naturalistic driving studies consist of drivers using their personal vehicles and provide valuable real-world data, but privacy issues must be handled very carefully. Drivers sign a consent form when they elect to participate, but passengers do not for a variety of practical reasons. However, their privacy must still be protected. One large study includes a blurred image of the entire cabin which allows reviewers to find passengers in the vehicle; this protects the privacy but still allows a means of answering questions regarding the impact of passengers on driver behavior. A method for automatically counting the passengers would have scientific value for transportation researchers. We investigated different image analysis methods for automatically locating and counting the non-drivers including simple face detection and fine-tuned methods for image classification and a published object detection method. We also compared the image classification using convolutional neural network and vision transformer backbones. Our studies show the image classification method appears to work the best in terms of absolute performance, although we note the closed nature of our dataset and nature of the imagery makes the application somewhat niche and object detection methods also have advantages. We perform some analysis to support our conclusion.

Peruski, Ryan↗

Quantum Computing for AI-based Design and Optimization of Electric Motors

Knowledge-based artificial intelligence and hierarchical fuzzy logic offer an interpretable framework for electricvehicle motor preliminary design, but their computational burden grows with linguistic granularity and coupled design-space size. This paper presents a reduced quantum reformulation of the hierarchical fuzzy inference of air-gap flux density, a representative level-one motor-design parameter. Starting from the published electric-vehicle motor-design framework, a three-term fuzzy prototype is constructed from the original inference structure. The reduced model is then reformulated as a modular quantum register-oracle system, in which each hierarchical subrelation is encoded as a block oracle and evaluated through superpositionbased candidate-label testing. The proposed modular quantum formulation reproduces the reduced classical prototype after block fusion. A resource analysis shows that the reduced modular system requires seven qubits per block and twenty-two qubits in a straightforward four-block implementation. Finally, a crossovercomplexity model is derived to identify the regime in which quantum candidate search may become favorable relative to hierarchical fuzzy inference. The results show that no quantum advantage should be claimed for the present one-output reduced benchmark, but that a plausible crossover emerges for larger joint candidate spaces and higher linguistic granularity. The work therefore establishes a technically consistent starting point for future quantum-assisted electric-vehicle motor-design optimization.

Kumar, Praveen [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000291877857)↗

In–Depth Analysis of the Degradation Mechanisms of High–Nickel, Low/No–Cobalt Layered Oxide Cathodes for Lithium–Ion Batteries

A rational compositional design of high-nickel, cobalt-free layered oxide materials for high-energy and low-cost lithium-ion batteries would be expected to further propel the widespread adoption of electric vehicles (EVs), yet a composition with satisfactory electrochemical properties has yet to emerge. The previous work has demonstrated a promising LiNi 0.883 Mn 0.056 Al 0.061 O 2 (NMA-89) composition that outperformed high-nickel, cobalt-containing analogs in cycling stability and maintained a comparable rate performance and thermal stability. Herein, the capacity fading mechanism of NMA-89 in a pouch full cell with a 4.2 V cutoff is compared to that of its cobalt-containing analogs. The results reveal that particle cracking in LiNi 0.89 Mn 0.055 Co 0.055 O 2 (NMC-89) and LiNi 0.883 Co 0.053 Al 0.064 O 2 (NCA-89) leads to a loss of active material and an increase in surface area, thereby exacerbating structural and surface instabilities, accelerating impedance and polarization growth, and ultimately reducing their capacity retentions. LiNi 0.89 Mn 0.044 Co 0.042 Al 0.013 Mg 0.011 O 2 (NMCAM-89) and NMA-89 experience subdued surface reactions and maintain spherical particle structures, both of which are conducive to their capacity retentions during long-term cycling. Furthermore, this investigation offers insights into how specific transition-metal ions dictate the electrochemical stability of high-Ni layered oxide cathode materials, highlights the benefit of Mn-Al combination in NMA-89, and presents potential strategies to further enhance the performance of this novel class of cathode materials.

degradation mechanisms↗

Charging location selection of an incoming electric vehicle for large EV depot infrastructure

As the use of renewable energy resources increases within charging infrastructures, the risk that charging an additional load within the charging infrastructure will create a violation of the applicable grid code also increases. In an embodiment, a charging location is selected for an incoming load based on a load flow analysis, to thereby mitigate the risk of a violation. This selection process may also account for the charging schedule of the load and the capacity of available charging stations (e.g., fast charging vs. slow charging).

Hafiz, Faeza↗

Cost‐benefit assessment framework for robotics‐driven inspection of floating offshore wind farms

Abstract Operations and maintenance (O&M) of floating offshore wind farms (FOWFs) poses various challenges in terms of greater distances from the shore, harsher weather conditions, and restricted mobility options. Robotic systems have the potential to automate some parts of the O&M leading to continuous feature‐rich data acquisition, operational efficiency, along with health and safety improvements. There remains a gap in assessing the techno‐economic feasibility of robotics in the FOWF sector. This paper investigates the costs and benefits of incorporating robotics into the O&M of a FOWF. A bottom‐up cost model is used to estimate the costs for a proposed multi‐robot platform (MRP). The MRP houses unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and remotely operated vehicle (ROV) to conduct the inspection of specific FOWF components. Emphasis is laid on the most conducive O&M activities for robotization and the associated technical and cost aspects. The simulation is conducted in Windfarm Operations and Maintenance cost‐Benefit Analysis Tool (WOMBAT), where the metrics of incurred operational expenditure (OPEX) and the inspection time are calculated and compared with those of a baseline case consisting of crew transfer vessels, rope‐access technicians, and divers. Results show that the MRP can reduce the inspection time incurred, but this reduction has dependency on the efficacy of the robotic system and the associated parameterization e.g., cost elements and the inspection rates. Conversely, the increased MRP day rate results in a higher annualized OPEX. Residual risk is calculated to assess the net benefit of incorporating the MRP. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis is conducted to find the key parameters influencing the OPEX and the inspection time variation. A key output of this work is a robust and realistic framework which can be used for the cost‐benefit assessment of future MRP systems for specific FOWF activities.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Mobility Gaps between Low-Income and Not Low-Income Households: A Case Study in New York State

Understanding the travel challenges faced by low-income residents has always been and continues to be one of the most important transportation equity topics. This study aims to explore the mobility gaps between low-income households (HHs) and not low-income HHs, and how the gaps vary within different socio-demographic population groups in New York State (NYS). The latest National Household Travel Survey data was used as the primary data source for the analysis. The study first employed the K-prototype clustering algorithm to categorize the HHs in NYS based on their socio-demographic attributes. Five population groups were identified based on nine different household (HH) features such as HH size, vehicle ownership, and elderly status of its members. Then, the mobility differences, measured by trip frequency, trip distance, travel time, and person miles traveled, were examined among the five population groups. Results suggest that the individuals in low-income HHs consistently took fewer trips and made shorter trips compared to their not low-income counterparts in NYS. The travel distance gaps were most obvious among white HHs with more vehicles than drivers. In addition, while the population from low-income HHs made shorter trips on average (2.7 mi shorter per trip), they experienced longer travel time than those from not low-income HHs (1.8 min longer per trip). These key findings provide a deeper understanding of the travel behavior disparities between low-income and not low-income households. The findings could also support policymakers and transportation planners in addressing the critical needs of residents in low-income households in NYS and provide inputs for designing a more equitable transportation system.

Liu, Yuandong↗

Hierarchical Speed Planner for Automated Vehicles: A Framework for Lagrangian Variable Speed Limit in Mixed-Autonomy Traffic

Here, this article presents a novel hierarchical speed planning framework for variable speed limits in mixed-autonomy traffic environments, leveraging server-side macroscopic control and vehicle-side microscopic execution. The framework integrates real-time traffic state estimation (TSE) and reinforcement learning (RL)-based control to mitigate congestion and improve traffic flow. A TSE enhancement module combines macroscopic data from sources like INRIX with high-resolution observations from connected autonomous vehicles (CAVs), enabling predictive modeling to address latency and noise. The target speed design module employs kernel smoothing and a buffer zone strategy to optimize traffic density and flow around bottlenecks. The proposed system was validated in the largest open-road test to date with 100 CAVs, demonstrating an overall 8% traffic density decrease, with a specific decrease of 7% upstream, 10% downstream, and a 52% decrease during the congestion formation phase at bottlenecks.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Engineering Computational Practices (Rev. 1)

This manual will attempt to motivate the use of an automated build system for the purposes of computational science and engineering. As part of this motivation, the surrounding computational practices of version control, documen tation, compute environment management, and regression testing will also be addressed as applied to the practice of computational engineering. Specifically, this manual intends to motivate the adoption of these traditional software engineering practices for use in research and production engineering simulation projects. This manual is not the first such effort in the greater scientific computing community. In fact, the authors relied heavily on the lesson plans of the Software Carpentry, established to teach computing skills to researchers in 1998. As the intention for this manual is to lay out fundamental practices of engineering computing, it will not attempt to fully teach the underlying concepts and will instead reference the well designed lesson plans of the Software Carpentry. Where possible, this manual will explain to general computing practices and concepts and limit discussion of specific software implementations to examples or vehicles for practice in concrete application. The specific software taught by the Software Carpentry curriculum is an excellent starting point to learn the core concepts of computational engi neering. However, the authors have found that applications to engineering simulation and analysis require translation of these software development concepts into the language and workflows of computational engineers. Adopting these computational tools may require engineers to re-imagine their workflows in some combination of traditional engineer ing and software concepts. It has also been necessary to extend existing software build systems for engineering practices beyond the simple wrap ping of engineering software execution. Where necessary, examples of specific software and their method of extension to engineering simulations will be given, with reference to the User Manual for recommended practical use. Where this manual relies on specific implementation examples, it should be understood that the practicing engineer may find that different software is more amenable to their specific work. It is always the overall collection of computational practices is more important than any specific software implementation. The ability to recognize which concepts are implemented by a software package will make a practicing engineer agile to changing project needs, computing resources, numeric solvers, programming languages, and even available funding.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Reaction heterogeneity in practical high-energy lithium–sulfur pouch cells

The lithium–sulfur (Li–S) battery is a promising next-generation energy storage technology because of its high theoretical energy and low cost. Extensive research efforts have been made on new materials and advanced characterization techniques for mechanistic studies. However, it is uncertain how discoveries made on the material level apply to realistic batteries due to limited analysis and characterization of real high-energy cells, such as pouch cells. Evaluation of pouch cells (>1 A h) (instead of coin cells) that are scalable to practical cells provides a critical understanding of current limitations which enables the proposal of strategies and solutions for further performance improvement. Herein, we design and fabricate pouch cells over 300 W h kg -1 , compare the cell parameters required for high-energy pouch cells, and investigate the reaction processes and their correlation to cell cycling behavior and failure mechanisms. Spatially resolved characterization techniques and fluid-flow simulation reveal the impacts of the liquid electrolyte diffusion within the pouch cells. We found that catastrophic failure of high-energy Li–S pouch cells results from uneven sulfur/polysulfide reactions and electrolyte depletion for the first tens of cycles, rather than sulfur dissolution as commonly reported in the literature. The uneven reaction stems from limited electrolyte diffusion through the porous channels into the central part of thick cathodes during cycling, which is amplified both across the sulfur electrodes and within the same electrode plane. A combination of strategies is suggested to increase sulfur utilization, improve nanoarchitectures for electrolyte diffusion and reduce consumption of the electrolytes and additives.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Renewable Electrolysis System Development (Final Report)

Renewable hydrogen is becoming globally recognized as a key component required for de-carbonization of our energy system, both as a medium for capture of excess renewable energy sources, vehicle refueling, and as an intermediate for multiple industrial processes. Hydrogen production, via low-temperature electrolysis, is a flexible grid-friendly, clean energy carrying intermediate that enables fast ramp and de-ramp rates as naturally varying solar, wind, and storage systems become a larger percentage of the electricity mix. Analysis shows that by 2050, employing renewable hydrogen at scale can decrease total U.S. CO 2 emissions by about half relative to business as usual, critical to achieving >80% greenhouse gas reduction targets. Energy storage systems help commercial customers reduce their electric bills by storing energy from the grid or from renewable electricity sources when energy is inexpensive, then using that stored energy when demand and prices are high. Proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolysis is one of the few technologies that can produce hydrogen with zero carbon emissions at relevant scale (hundreds of MWs) in the near term. NREL's research has shown that electrolyzers are fast and flexible enough to participate in energy and ancillary service markets that can help stabilize the grid. In 2015, Proton OnSite (now NEL Hydrogen) introduced the M-series electrolyzer platform, the world's first megawatt PEM electrolyzer for the global energy storage market, offering a carbon-free source of hydrogen fuel or process gas. In addition, the ability to sell the hydrogen into a high value application like vehicle (e.g., light- and heavy-duty and material handling) fueling allows for a layering of revenue streams that creates better business cases for hydrogen energy storage systems (HES). The ability to provide multiple value streams from the fast-responding controllable electrolyzer will have a direct impact on the net cost of hydrogen.

08 HYDROGEN↗

From Silos to Synergy: Identifying a Roadmap for Cross-Sector Research to Accelerate the Clean Energy Transition

The U.S. Department of Energy's blueprints for the transportation, buildings, and electricity sectors call for substantial reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050. These plans focus on zero-emission vehicles, investments in transit, energy-efficient buildings, and the widespread adoption and deployment of renewable energy technologies like solar photovoltaics (PV), energy storage and energy-efficient appliances. However, these sectors are often studied and modeled in isolation, overlooking how household decisions to adopt clean technologies in one sector influence others. This study, led by an interdisciplinary team at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), explores opportunities for cross-sector collaboration to drive more effective and equitable decarbonization. Through discussions with 22 NREL researchers across transportation, building, solar, and grid sectors, the study highlights the need for integrated tools and models that capture interactions between these sectors. Key insights include the need for data standardization and interoperability to enable cross-sector analysis and decision-making. Strengthening utility partnerships is also critical to align energy policies with decarbonization goals and manage the increased demand for renewable energy. The study also emphasizes the importance of equity in the clean energy transition, calling for targeted incentives and support to ensure that low-income and underserved communities benefit from clean technologies like electric vehicles and energy-efficient appliances. To support these efforts, innovative funding mechanisms must be expanded to facilitate interdisciplinary research, such as city-specific decarbonization plans and federal projects like DOE"s Standard Scenarios. By encouraging collaboration and integrating cross-sector insights, this study aims to provide a roadmap to accelerate the clean energy transition and ensure it is both sustainable and inclusive.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Comparison of Socio-Technical Threat Models

Given the adoption of emerging technologies and the increasing complexity of managing such systems with a lifecycle much shorter than that of critical infrastructure systems, there is a practical need to be able to analyze sociotechnical dependencies and their associated evolving risks. Threat models based on social influence techniques can be used to implement adversarial tactics analogous to the cyber kill chain and attested to within the MITRE ATT&CK for ICS framework including Initial Access, Persistence, Collection, and Impact. Furthermore, as with cyber disruptions, the impact of social influence threat models can have an asymmetric impact that is not spatially-localized. Finally, unlike cyber attacks with a reasonably short duration (ransomware takes days to months), social influence based attacks have the potential to persist for much longer as they are based on long-term strategic infrastructure investments within the private sector. Given the increased importance of electric vehicle charging stations as a long-term, strategic infrastructure investment within the Energy and Transportation Sectors, we provide initial results that compare the impact of a Loss of Availability (T0826) realized through cyber and social influence based threat models. The analysis employs techniques from automated reasoning and measures of network complexity to understand evolving dominance of EV payment and charging networks within geographic region of interest. Within this context, we compare the impact of a loss of availability due to ransomware versus that of loss of support due to a merger and acquisition. Results across several different metro areas will be provided.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗