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At least 649 records · Page 36
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2015

Accurate determination of electronic transport properties of silicon wafers by nonlinear photocarrier radiometry with multiple pump beam sizes

In this paper, photocarrier radiometry (PCR) technique with multiple pump beam sizes is employed to determine simultaneously the electronic transport parameters (the carrier lifetime, the carrier diffusion coefficient, and the front surface recombination velocity) of silicon wafers. By employing the multiple pump beam sizes, the influence of instrumental frequency response on the multi-parameter estimation is totally eliminated. A nonlinear PCR model is developed to interpret the PCR signal. Theoretical simulations are performed to investigate the uncertainties of the estimated parameter values by investigating the dependence of a mean square variance on the corresponding transport parameters and compared to that obtained by the conventional frequency-scan method, in which only the frequency dependences of the PCR amplitude and phase are recorded at single pump beam size. Simulation results show that the proposed multiple-pump-beam-size method can improve significantly the accuracy of the determination of the electronic transport parameters. Comparative experiments with a p-type silicon wafer with resistivity 0.1–0.2 Ω·cm are performed, and the electronic transport properties are determined simultaneously. The estimated uncertainties of the carrier lifetime, diffusion coefficient, and front surface recombination velocity are approximately ±10.7%, ±8.6%, and ±35.4% by the proposed multiple-pump-beam-size method, which is much improved than ±15.9%, ±29.1%, and >±50% by the conventional frequency-scan method. The transport parameters determined by the proposed multiple-pump-beam-size PCR method are in good agreement with that obtained by a steady-state PCR imaging technique.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Covariance-Free Bifidelity Control Variates Importance Sampling for Rare Event Reliability Analysis

Multifidelity modeling has been steadily gaining attention as a tool to address the problem of exorbitant model evaluation costs that makes the estimation of failure probabilities a significant computational challenge for complex real-world problems, particularly when failure is a rare event. To implement multifidelity modeling, estimators that efficiently combine information from multiple models/sources are necessary. In past works, the variance reduction techniques of control variates (CV) and importance sampling (IS) have been leveraged for this task. In this paper, we present the CVIS framework—a creative take on a coupled CV and IS estimator for bifidelity reliability analysis. The framework addresses some of the practical challenges of the CV method by using an estimator for the control variate mean and sidestepping the need to estimate the covariance between the original estimator and the control variate through a clever choice for the tuning constant. Furthermore, the task of selecting an efficient IS distribution is also considered, with a view towards maximally leveraging the bifidelity structure and maintaining expressivity. Additionally, a diagnostic is provided that indicates both the efficiency of the algorithm as well as the relative predictive quality of the models utilized. Finally, the behavior and performance of the framework is explored through analytical and numerical examples.

Markov chain Monte Carlo↗
DOE OSTI2014

System wide analyses have underestimated protein abundances and the importance of transcription in mammals

Large scale surveys in mammalian tissue culture cells suggest that the protein expressed at the median abundance is present at 8000–16 000 molecules per cell and that differences in mRNA expression between genes explain only 10–40% of the differences in protein levels. We find, however, that these surveys have significantly underestimated protein abundances and the relative importance of transcription. Using individual measurements for 61 housekeeping proteins to rescale whole proteome data from Schwanhausser et al. (2011), we find that the median protein detected is expressed at 170 000 molecules per cell and that our corrected protein abundance estimates show a higher correlation with mRNA abundances than do the uncorrected protein data. In addition, we estimated the impact of further errors in mRNA and protein abundances using direct experimental measurements of these errors. The resulting analysis suggests that mRNA levels explain at least 56% of the differences in protein abundance for the 4212 genes detected by Schwanhausser et al. (2011), though because one major source of error could not be estimated the true percent contribution should be higher. We also employed a second, independent strategy to determine the contribution of mRNA levels to protein expression. We show that the variance in translation rates directly measured by ribosome profiling is only 12% of that inferred by Schwanhausser et al. (2011), and that the measured and inferred translation rates correlate poorly (R2 = 0.13). Based on this, our second strategy suggests that mRNA levels explain ~81% of the variance in protein levels. We also determined the percent contributions of transcription, RNA degradation, translation and protein degradation to the variance in protein abundances using both of our strategies. While the magnitudes of the two estimates vary, they both suggest that transcription plays a more important role than the earlier studies implied and translation a much smaller role. Finally, the above estimates only apply to those genes whose mRNA and protein expression was detected. Based on a detailed analysis by Hebenstreit et al. (2012), we estimate that approximately 40% of genes in a given cell within a population express no mRNA. Since there can be no translation in the absence of mRNA, we argue that differences in translation rates can play no role in determining the expression levels for the ~40% of genes that are non-expressed.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

A continuation multilevel Monte Carlo algorithm

Here, we propose a novel Continuation Multi Level Monte Carlo (CMLMC) algorithm for weak approximation of stochastic models. The CMLMC algorithm solves the given approximation problem for a sequence of decreasing tolerances, ending when the required error tolerance is satisfied. CMLMC assumes discretization hierarchies that are defined a priori for each level and are geometrically refined across levels. Moreover, the actual choice of computational work across levels is based on parametric models for the average cost per sample and the corresponding variance and weak error. These parameters are calibrated using Bayesian estimation, taking particular notice of the deepest levels of the discretization hierarchy, where only few realizations are available to produce the estimates. The resulting CMLMC estimator exhibits a non-trivial splitting between bias and statistical contributions. We also show the asymptotic normality of the statistical error in the MLMC estimator and justify in this way our error estimate that allows prescribing both required accuracy and confidence in the final result. Our numerical results substantiate the above results and illustrate the corresponding computational savings in examples that are described in terms of differential equations either driven by random measures or with random coefficients.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Computation of forces and stresses in solids: Towards accurate structural optimization with auxiliary-field quantum Monte Carlo

The accurate computation of forces and other energy derivatives has been a long-standing challenge for quantum Monte Carlo methods. A number of technical obstacles contribute to this challenge. We discuss how these obstacles can be removed with the auxiliary-field quantum Monte Carlo (AFQMC) approach. AFQMC is a general, high-accuracy, many-body total-energy method for molecules and solids. The implementation of back-propagation for pure estimators allows direct calculation of gradients of the energy via the Hellmann-Feynman theorem. A planewave basis with norm-conserving pseudopotentials is used for the study of periodic bulk materials. Completeness of the planewave basis minimizes the effect of so-called Pulay terms. The ionic pseudopotentials, which can be incorporated in AFQMC in exactly the same manner as in standard independent-electron methods, regulate the force and stress estimators and eliminate any potential divergence of the Monte Carlo variances. The resulting approach allows applications of full geometry optimizations in bulk materials. As a result, it also paves the way for many-body computations of the phonon spectrum in solids.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1981

Removal of drift from frequency stability measurements

A method of estimating frequency drift rate and removing its effect from Allan variance plots is given. When tried on a test of hydrogen masers, the methods gives consistent results. An error in the previous Allan variance computation algorithm is corrected.

Greenhall, C. A.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Development of rotation sample designs for the estimation of crop acreages

The idea behind the use of rotation sample designs is that the variation of the crop acreage of a particular sample unit from year to year is usually less than the variation of crop acreage between units within a particular year. The estimation theory is based on an additive mixed analysis of variance model with years as fixed effects, (a sub t), and sample units as a variable factor. The rotation patterns are decided upon according to: (1) the number of sample units in the design each year; (2) the number of units retained in the following years; and (3) the number of years to complete the rotation pattern. Different analytic formulae for the variance of (a sub t) and the variance comparisons in using a complete survey of the rotation patterns.

Lycthuan-Lee, T. G.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Mechanisms for SAR imaging of ocean surface phenomena: Theory and experiment

Understanding the SAR response to surface wave is a central issue in the analysis of SAR ocean images. The imaging mechanism for gravity waves and the practical question of just which characteristics of the ocean wave field can be measured remotely using SAR were examined. Assessments of wave imaging theory are based primarily on comparisons of the directional wave height variance spectrum psi (K) measured by in situ buoys with estimates from SAR images. Other criteria are also recommended, e.g., the effects of focus adjustments. It is assumed that fluctuations in SAR image intensity are proportional to fluctuations in ocean surface height. If this were true, the Fourier power spectrum of a SAR image and corresponding surface measurements of psi would coincide. Differences between SAR estimates based on this hypothesis and buoy measurements of psi are then used to begin the assessment of rival wave imaging theories.

Vesecky, J. F.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Mesospheric Winds and Tides at Arecibo/puerto Rico (18 Deg N, 67 Deg W) November 20-23, 1981

The SOUSY-VHF-Radar was operated in the period November 20 to 23, 1981 during a continuous run at the Arecibo Observatory. The data used for this analysis were recorded from 06 AST on November 20 until 06 AST on November 23. Meridional winds were measured at odd hours and zonal winds at even hours. The occurrence of mesospheric VHF radar echoes was limited as usual to the daylight hours between 06 and 18 AST. The height limits, were variable from day to day, they were roughly 62 to 90 km. The intermittency of echoes in time and height, as well as radio interference, made it fairly difficult to deduce tidal information for this time period. About 10 to 45 single velocity estimates could be used to calculate an hourly mean. The variance of the displayed resulting in data, obtained by weighted averaging over the 3 day period, is about similar to the mean. The winds were extremely low during the observation period. Velocities of the prevailing wind, observed during an earlier campaign were 5 to 10 times larger than in the period of November 20 to 23, 1981. The amplitudes of the diurnal tide are comparable.

Rottger, J.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Quality Control of Meteorological Observations

For the first time, a problem of the meteorological observation quality control (QC) was formulated by L.S. Gandin at the Main Geophysical Observatory in the 70's. Later in 1988 L.S. Gandin began adapting his ideas in complex quality control (CQC) to the operational environment at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. The CQC was first applied by L.S.Gandin and his colleagues to detection and correction of errors in rawinsonde heights and temperatures using a complex of hydrostatic residuals.Later, a full complex of residuals, vertical and horizontal optimal interpolations and baseline checks were added for the checking and correction of a wide range of meteorological variables. some other of Gandin's ideas were applied and substantially developed at other meteorological centers. A new statistical QC was recently implemented in the Goddard Data Assimilation System. The central component of any quality control is a buddy check which is a test of individual suspect observations against available nearby non-suspect observations. A novel feature of this test is that the error variances which are used for QC decision are re-estimated on-line. As a result, the allowed tolerances for suspect observations can depend on local atmospheric conditions. The system is then better able to accept extreme values observed in deep cyclones, jet streams and so on. The basic statements of this adaptive buddy check are described. Some results of the on-line QC including moisture QC are presented.

Collins, William↗
NASA NTRS2009

A Computational Approach for Probabilistic Analysis of Water Impact Simulations

NASA's development of new concepts for the Crew Exploration Vehicle Orion presents many similar challenges to those worked in the sixties during the Apollo program. However, with improved modeling capabilities, new challenges arise. For example, the use of the commercial code LS-DYNA, although widely used and accepted in the technical community, often involves high-dimensional, time consuming, and computationally intensive simulations. The challenge is to capture what is learned from a limited number of LS-DYNA simulations to develop models that allow users to conduct interpolation of solutions at a fraction of the computational time. This paper presents a description of the LS-DYNA model, a brief summary of the response surface techniques, the analysis of variance approach used in the sensitivity studies, equations used to estimate impact parameters, results showing conditions that might cause injuries, and concluding remarks.

Horta, Lucas G.↗
NASA NTRS2010

A Computational Approach for Probabilistic Analysis of LS-DYNA Water Impact Simulations

NASA s development of new concepts for the Crew Exploration Vehicle Orion presents many similar challenges to those worked in the sixties during the Apollo program. However, with improved modeling capabilities, new challenges arise. For example, the use of the commercial code LS-DYNA, although widely used and accepted in the technical community, often involves high-dimensional, time consuming, and computationally intensive simulations. Because of the computational cost, these tools are often used to evaluate specific conditions and rarely used for statistical analysis. The challenge is to capture what is learned from a limited number of LS-DYNA simulations to develop models that allow users to conduct interpolation of solutions at a fraction of the computational time. For this problem, response surface models are used to predict the system time responses to a water landing as a function of capsule speed, direction, attitude, water speed, and water direction. Furthermore, these models can also be used to ascertain the adequacy of the design in terms of probability measures. This paper presents a description of the LS-DYNA model, a brief summary of the response surface techniques, the analysis of variance approach used in the sensitivity studies, equations used to estimate impact parameters, results showing conditions that might cause injuries, and concluding remarks.

Horta, Lucas G.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Evaluation of Algorithms for a Miles-in-Trail Decision Support Tool

Four machine learning algorithms were prototyped and evaluated for use in a proposed decision support tool that would assist air traffic managers as they set Miles-in-Trail restrictions. The tool would display probabilities that each possible Miles-in-Trail value should be used in a given situation. The algorithms were evaluated with an expected Miles-in-Trail cost that assumes traffic managers set restrictions based on the tool-suggested probabilities. Basic Support Vector Machine, random forest, and decision tree algorithms were evaluated, as was a softmax regression algorithm that was modified to explicitly reduce the expected Miles-in-Trail cost. The algorithms were evaluated with data from the summer of 2011 for air traffic flows bound to the Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) over the ARD, PENNS, and SHAFF fixes. The algorithms were provided with 18 input features that describe the weather at EWR, the runway configuration at EWR, the scheduled traffic demand at EWR and the fixes, and other traffic management initiatives in place at EWR. Features describing other traffic management initiatives at EWR and the weather at EWR achieved relatively high information gain scores, indicating that they are the most useful for estimating Miles-in-Trail. In spite of a high variance or over-fitting problem, the decision tree algorithm achieved the lowest expected Miles-in-Trail costs when the algorithms were evaluated using 10-fold cross validation with the summer 2011 data for these air traffic flows.

Bloem, Michael↗
NASA NTRS2023

Version 2 of the global catalogue of large anthropogenic and volcanic SO 2 sources and emissions derived from satellite measurements

Sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) measurements from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS), and TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) satellite spectrometers were used to update and extend the previously developed global catalogue of large SO 2 emission sources. This version 2 of the global catalogue covers the period of 2005–2021 and includes a total of 759 continuously emitting point sources releasing from about 10 kt yr −1 to more than 4000 kt yr −1 of SO 2 , that have been identified and grouped by country and primary source origin: volcanoes (106 sources); power plants (477); smelters (74); and sources related to the oil and gas industry (102). There are several major improvements compared to the original catalogue: it combines emissions estimates from three satellite instruments instead of just OMI, uses a new version 2 of the OMI and OMPS SO 2 dataset, and updated consistent site-specific air mass factors (AMFs) are used to calculate SO 2 vertical column densities (VCDs). The newest TROPOMI SO 2 data processed with the Covariance-Based Retrieval Algorithm (COBRA), used in the catalogue, can detect sources with emissions as low as 8 kt yr −1 (in 2018–2021) compared to the 30 kt yr −1 limit for OMI. In general, there is an overall agreement within ±12 % in total emissions estimated from the three satellite instruments for large regions. For individual emission sources, the spread is larger: the annual emissions estimated from OMI and TROPOMI agree within ±13 % in 50 % of cases and within ±28 % in 90 % of cases. The version 2 catalogue emissions were calculated as a weighted average of emission estimates from the three satellite instruments using an inverse-variance weighting method. OMI, OMPS, and TROPOMI data contribute 7 %, 5 %, and 88 % to the average, respectively, for small (<30 kt yr −1 ) sources and 33 %, 20 %, and 47 %, respectively, for large (>300 kt yr −1 ) sources. The catalogue data show an approximate 50 % decline in global SO 2 emissions between 2005 and 2021, although emissions were relatively stable during the last 3 years. The version 2 of the global catalogue has been posted at the NASA global SO 2 monitoring website (https://doi.org/10.5067/MEASURES/SO2/DATA406, Fioletov et al., 2022).

volcanic↗
DOE OSTI2016

Constraining the local variance of H {sub 0} from directional analyses

We evaluate the local variance of the Hubble Constant H {sub 0} with low-z Type Ia Supernovae (SNe). Our analyses are performed using a hemispherical comparison method in order to test whether taking the bulk flow motion into account can reconcile the measurement of the Hubble Constant H {sub 0} from standard candles ( H {sub 0} = 73.8±2.4 km s{sup -1} Mpc {sup -1}) with that of the Planck's Cosmic Microwave Background data ( H {sub 0} = 67.8 ± 0.9km s{sup -1} Mpc{sup -1}). We obtain that H {sub 0} ranges from 68.9±0.5 km s{sup -1} Mpc{sup -1} to 71.2±0.7 km s{sup -1} Mpc{sup -1} through the celestial sphere (1 σ uncertainty), implying a Hubble Constant maximal variance of δ H {sub 0} = (2.30±0.86) km s{sup -1} Mpc{sup -1} towards the ( l,b ) = (315°,27°) direction. Interestingly, this result agrees with the bulk flow direction estimates found in the literature, as well as previous evaluations of the H {sub 0} variance due to the presence of nearby inhomogeneities. We assess the statistical significance of this result with different prescriptions of Monte Carlo simulations, obtaining moderate statistical significance, i.e., 68.7% confidence level (CL) for such variance. Furthermore, we test the hypothesis of a higher H {sub 0} value in the presence of a bulk flow velocity dipole, finding some evidence for this result which, however, cannot be claimed to be significant due to the current large uncertainty in the SNe distance modulus. Then, we conclude that the tension between different H {sub 0} determinations can plausibly be caused to the bulk flow motion of the local Universe, even though the current incompleteness of the SNe data set, both in terms of celestial coverage and distance uncertainties, does not allow a high statistical significance for these results or a definitive conclusion about this issue.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2003

Impact of Climatic Variability on Atmospheric Mass Distribution and GRACE-Derived Gravity Fields

During the period we calculated the atmospheric data sets related to its mass and angular momentum distribution. For mass, we determined the various harmonics from the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis, especially the low-order harmonics that are useful in studying the gravitation distribution as will be determined from the GRACE mission. Atmospheric mass is also related to the atmospheric loading on the solid Earth; we cooperated with scientists who needed the atmospheric mass information for understanding its contributions to the overall loading, necessary for vertical and horizontal coordinate estimation. We calculated atmospheric angular momentum from the NCEP-NCAR reanalyses and 4 operational meteorological centers, based on the motion (wind) terms and the mass (surface pressure) terms. These are associated with motions of the planet, including its axial component causing changes in the length of day, more related to the winds, and the equatorial component related to motions of the pole, more related to the mass. Tasks related to the ocean mass and angular momentum were added to the project as well. For these we have noted the ocean impact on motions of the pole as well as the torque mechanisms that relate the transfer of angular momentum between oceans and solid earth. The activities of the project may be summarized in the following first manuscript written in December 2002, for a symposium that Dr. Salstein attended on Geodynamics. We have continued to assess ocean angular momentum (OAM) quantities derived from bottom pressure and velocity fields estimated with our finite-difference barotropic (single layer) model. Three years of output (1993-95) from a run without any data constraints was compared to output from a corresponding run that was constrained by altimeter data using a Kalman filter and smoother scheme. Respective OAM time series were combined with corresponding atmospheric series and compared to observed polar motion. The constrained OAM series provided slightly better variance reduction than the unconstrained series. Analysis provided a check on the estimation scheme and pointed to further work to improve the determination of OAM using this method. A significant effort was also devoted to quantifying effects of uncertainties in high frequency winds on the mean and seasonal momentum exchange between atmosphere and oceans.

Salstein, David A.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Ocean-Land Teleconnections and Chaotic Atmospheric Variability in Climate Models, with Implications for Real-World Behavior

This study introduces a unique approach to estimating a fundamental but unmeasurable property of Nature: ρo 2 , the fraction of the variance of a given meteorological variable that is determined by boundary forcing (specifically, SSTs) as opposed to chaotic atmospheric dynamics. Here, we focus on continental monthly-averaged near-surface air temperature, or T2M. Rather than determining the fractions of SST-explained T2M variance found for a specific atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) and then assuming that these fractions also represent Nature, we perform an analysis that entails: (i) evaluating a specific AGCM’s ability to capture observed variability with an infinite number of ensemble members, (ii) quantifying the degree to which different modeling systems agree on SST-land teleconnections, and (iii) combining these results into our novel estimates of ρo 2 . The derived ρo 2 fields suggest, with caveats, that AGCMs tend to overestimate the fraction of explained T2M variance (the signal-to-total variance ratio) in the Tropics.

Randal D Koster↗