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NASA NTRS1999

Simulation of Anomalous Regional Climate Events with a Variable Resolution Stretched Grid GCM

The stretched-grid approach provides an efficient down-scaling and consistent interactions between global and regional scales due to using one variable-resolution model for integrations. It is a workable alternative to the widely used nested-grid approach introduced over a decade ago as a pioneering step in regional climate modeling. A variable-resolution General Circulation Model (GCM) employing a stretched grid, with enhanced resolution over the US as the area of interest, is used for simulating two anomalous regional climate events, the US summer drought of 1988 and flood of 1993. The special mode of integration using a stretched-grid GCM and data assimilation system is developed that allows for imitating the nested-grid framework. The mode is useful for inter-comparison purposes and for underlining the differences between these two approaches. The 1988 and 1993 integrations are performed for the two month period starting from mid May. Regional resolutions used in most of the experiments is 60 km. The major goal and the result of the study is obtaining the efficient down-scaling over the area of interest. The monthly mean prognostic regional fields for the stretched-grid integrations are remarkably close to those of the verifying analyses. Simulated precipitation patterns are successfully verified against gauge precipitation observations. The impact of finer 40 km regional resolution is investigated for the 1993 integration and an example of recovering subregional precipitation is presented. The obtained results show that the global variable-resolution stretched-grid approach is a viable candidate for regional and subregional climate studies and applications.

Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael S.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Annual Sea Level Variability Induced by Changes in Sea Ice Extent and Accumulation on Ice Sheets: An Assessment Based on Remotely Sensed Data

Changes of mean annual net accumulation at the surface on the grounded ice sheets of East Antarctica, West Antarctica, and Greenland in response to variations in sea ice extent are estimated using grid-point values 100 km apart. The data bases are assembled principally by bilinear interpolation of remotely sensed brightness temperature (Nimbus-5 ESMR, Nimbus-7 SMMR), surface temperature (Nimbus-7 THIR), and surface elevation (ERS-1 radar altimeter). These data, complemented by field data where remotely sensed data are not available, are used in multivariate analyses in which mean annual accumulation (derived from firn emissivity) is the dependent variable; the independent variables are latitude, surface elevation, mean annual surface temperature, and mean annual distance to open ocean (as a source of energy and moisture). The last is the shortest distance measured between a grid point and the mean annual position of the 10% sea ice concentration boundary, and is used as an index of changes in sea ice extent as well as of mean concentration. Stepwise correlation analyses indicate that variations in sea ice extent of +/-50 km would lead to changes in accumulation inversely of +/-4% on East Antarctica, +/- 10% on West Antarctica, and +4% on Greenland. These results are compared with those obtained in a previous study using visually interpolated values from contoured compilations of field data; they substantiate the findings for the Antarctic ice sheets (+/-4% on East Antarctica, +/-9% in West Antarctica), and suggest a reduction by one half of the probable change of accumulation on Greenland (from +/-8%). The results also suggest a reduction of the combined contribution to sea level variability to +/- 0.19 mm/a (from +/- 0.22 mm/a).

Zwally, H. J.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Interannual Variability of Ozone and Ultraviolet Exposure

Annual zonal averages of ozone amounts from Nimbus-7/TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) (1979 to 1992) are used to estimate the interannual variability of ozone and UVB (290 - 315 nm) irradiance between plus or minus 60 deg. latitude. Clear-sky interannual ozone and UVB changes are mainly caused by the Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO) of stratospheric winds, and can amount to plus or minus 15% at 300 nm and plus or minus 5% at 310 nm (or erythemal irradiance) at the equator and at middle latitudes. Near the equator, the interannual variability of ozone amounts and UV irradiance caused by the combination of the 2.3 year QBO and annual cycles implies that there is about a 5-year periodicity in UVB variability. At higher latitudes, the appearance of the interannual UVB maximum is predicted by the QBO, but without the regular periodicity. The 5-year periodic QBO effects on UVB irradiance are larger than the currently evaluated long-term changes caused by the decrease in ozone amounts.

Herman, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Variability in Sea Surface Height: A Qualitative Measure for the Meridional Overturning in the North Atlantic

Sea surface height (SSH) from altimeter observations from 1992 on and from modeling results is investigated to determine the modes of variability and the linkages to the state of oceanic circulation in the North Atlantic. First the altimeter and model simulated SSH are analyzed using the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. They are found to share a similar leading mode where the center of action is along the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic Current with opposite sign anomalies in the subpolar gyre and in the slope waters along the Eastern Seaboard. The time series of the leading EOF mode from the altimeter data shows that between winters of 1995 and 1996, SSH over the Gulf Stream decreased by about 12cm which change is reproduced by the model simulation. Based on the relationship from the model simulations between the time series of the SSH EOF1 and meridional heat transport, it is suggested that associated with this SSH change in 1995-96, the overturning has slowed down from its heights in the early 90's. Furthermore, it is shown that decadal variability in the leading SSH mode originates from the thermal forcing component. This adds confidence to the qualitative relationship between the state of overturning/meridional heat transport and SSH in the limited area described by the EOF1. SSH variability in the eastern side of the North Atlantic basin, outside the western boundary current region, is determined by local and remote (Rossby waves) wind stress curl forcing.

Hakkinen, Sirpa↗
NASA NTRS2000

Iron K Line Variability in the Low-Luminosity AGN NGC 4579

We present results of new ASCA observations of the low-luminosity AGN (LLAGN) NGC 4579 obtained in 1998 December 18 and 28, and we report on detection of variability of an iron K emission line. The X-ray luminosities in the 2-10 keV band for the two observations are nearly identical, L(sub X) approximately = 2 x 10(exp 4l) ergs/s, but they are approximately 35% larger than that measured in 1995 July by Terashima et al. (1998). An Fe K emission line is detected at 6.39 +/- 0.09 keV (source rest frame) which is lower than the line energy 6.73(sup +0.13, sub -0.12) keV in the 1995 observation. If we fit the Fe lines with a blend of two Gaussians centered at 6.4 keV and 6.73 KeV, the intensity of the 6.7 keV line decreased, while the intensity of the 6.4 keV line increased, within an interval of 3.5 years. This variability rules out thermal plasmas in the host galaxy as the origin of the ionized Fe line in this LLAGN. The detection and variability of the 6.4 keV line suggest that an optically thick standard accretion disk is present and subtends a large solid angle viewed from the nucleus at the Eddington ratio of L(sub Bol)/L(sub Eddington) approximately 2 x 10(exp -3) (Ho 1999). A broad disk-line profile is not clearly seen and the structure of the innermost part of accretion disk remains unclear.

Terashima, Yuichi↗
NASA NTRS2000

Optical Variability of Blazars

In this paper we show the results of our monitoring the flux variability of 15 blazars, within the redshift range of 0.07 - 2.06, all with a visual magnitude range between 14 and 20 mag. Because blazars have displayed variability on diverse timescales, we have chosen to study them over both short and long timescales, ranging from minutes to years. These blazars were observed on 58 nights between 1995 March and 1998 June. Individual sources are discussed in detail. For example, one of our sources, Mrk 501, showed microvariability of as much as 0.13 mag change within 12 minutes. The usual parameters for size, mass, and luminosity are calculated. Relativistic beaming is implied by the data. We also searched for correlations between amplitude of variability, redshift, and luminosity. We found few, if any, such correlations. Discussion and conclusions are given for these and other results as implied by the data.

Ghosh, K. K.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Interannual Variability in the Equatorial Stratosphere: Comparison of 2D Model Simulations with Satellite Constituent Data

Satellite observations from UARS and TOMS have provided unique data sets for studying seasonal and interannual stratospheric constituent variability during the 1990's. The corresponding meteorological variability is also well represented by the partly satellite-based UKMO assimilation winds and temperatures. In this study, we use the UKMO meteorological fields to derive zonal mean transport components (residual circulation, horizontal eddy diffusion) for each year, 1992-1998. These fields are then used in our GSFC two-dimensional chemistry and transport model to simulate the year to year changes in ozone and long lived tracers in the equatorial stratosphere due to interannual dynamical variability. The resulting model simulation of ozone and CH4 compares reasonably well with UARS data in reproducing a dominant QBO signal in the lower stratosphere, and a dominant semiannual signature in the upper stratosphere which appears to be modulated by the lower stratospheric QBO. The model also compares well with TOMS data in simulating the phase of the QBO in total ozone, although the model QBO amplitude is somewhat underestimated relative to TOMS. These comparisons illustrate that the general zonal mean transport characteristics in the equatorial stratosphere can be reasonably well simulated using an empirically-based residual circulation.

Fleming, Eric L.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Long-Term Time Variability in the X-Ray Pulse Shape of the Crab Nebula Pulsar

This is the final performance report for our grant 'Long-Term Time Variability in the X-Ray Pulse Shape of the Crab Nebula Pulsar.' In the first year of this grant, we received the 50,000-second ROSAT (German acronym for X-ray satellite) High Resolution Images (HRI) observation of the Crab Nebula pulsar. We used the data to create a 65-ms-resolution pulse profile and compared it to a similar pulse profile obtained in 1991. No statistically significant differences were found. These results were presented at the January 1998 meeting of the American Astronomical Society. Since then, we have performed more sensitive analyses to search for potential changes in the pulse profile shape between the two data sets. Again, no significant variability was found. In order to augment this long (six-year) baseline data set, we have analyzed archival observations of the Crab Nebula pulsar with the Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer (RXTE). While these observations have shorter time baselines than the ROSAT data set, their higher signal-to-noise offers similar sensitivity to long-term variability. Again, no significant variations have been found, confirming our ROSAT results. This work was done in collaboration with Prof. Stephen Eikenberry, Cornell University. These analyses will be included in Cornell University graduate student Dae-Sik Moon's doctoral thesis.

Fazio, Giovanni G.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Mission Advantages of Constant Power, Variable Isp Electrostatic Thrusters

Electric propulsion has moved from station-keeping capability for spacecraft to primary propulsion with the advent of both the Deep Space One asteroid flyby and geosynchronous spacecraft orbit insertion. In both cases notably more payload was delivered than would have been possible with chemical propulsion. To provide even greater improvements electrostatic thruster performance could be varied in specific impulse, but kept at constant power to provide better payload or trip time performance for different mission phases. Such variable specific impulse mission applications include geosynchronous and low earth orbit spacecraft stationkeeping and orbit insertion, geosynchronous reusable tug missions, and interplanetary probes. The application of variable specific impulse devices is shown to add from 5 to 15% payload for these missions. The challenges to building such devices include variable voltage power supplies and extending fuel throughput capabilities across the specific impulse range.

Oleson, Steven R.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Analytical Models for Variable Density Multilayer Insulation Used in Cryogenic Storage

A unique multilayer insulation concept for orbital cryogenic storage was experimentally evaluated at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) using the Multipurpose Hydrogen Test Bed (MHTB). A combination of foam/Multi layer Insulation (MLI) was used. The MLI (45 layers of Double Aluminized Mylar (DAM) with Dacron net spacers) was designed for an on-orbit storage period of 45 days and included several unique features such as: a variable layer density and larger but fewer DAM perforations for venting during ascent to orbit. The focus of this paper is on analytical modeling of the variable density MLI performance during orbital coast periods. The foam/MLI combination model is considered to have five segments. The first segment represents the foam layer. The second, third, and fourth segments represent the three layers of MLI with different layer densities and number of shields. Finally, the last segment is considered to be a shroud that surrounds the last MLI layer. The hot boundary temperature is allowed to vary from 164 K to 305 K. To simulate MLI performance, two approaches are considered. In the first approach, the variable density MLI is modeled layer by layer while in the second approach, a semi-empirical model is applied. Both models account for thermal radiation between shields, gas conduction, and solid conduction through the separator materials. The heat flux values predicted by each approach are compared for different boundary temperatures and MLI systems with 30, 45, 60, and 75 layers.

Hedayat, A.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Optimal Design of Grid-Stiffened Panels and Shells With Variable Curvature

A design strategy for optimal design of composite grid-stiffened structures with variable curvature subjected to global and local buckling constraints is developed using a discrete optimizer. An improved smeared stiffener theory is used for the global buckling analysis. Local buckling of skin segments is assessed using a Rayleigh-Ritz method that accounts for material anisotropy and transverse shear flexibility. The local buckling of stiffener segments is also assessed. Design variables are the axial and transverse stiffener spacing, stiffener height and thickness, skin laminate, and stiffening configuration. Stiffening configuration is herein defined as a design variable that indicates the combination of axial, transverse and diagonal stiffeners in the stiffened panel. The design optimization process is adapted to identify the lightest-weight stiffening configuration and stiffener spacing for grid-stiffened composite panels given the overall panel dimensions. in-plane design loads, material properties. and boundary conditions of the grid-stiffened panel or shell.

Ambur, Damodar R.↗
NASA NTRS2001

A Comparison of Seasonal and Interannual Variability of Soil Dust Aerosols Over the Atlantic Ocean as Inferred by the Toms AI and AVHRR AOT Retrievals

The seasonal cycle and interannual variability of two estimates of soil (or 'mineral') dust aerosols are compared: Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) aerosol optical thickness (AOT) and Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) aerosol index (AI), Both data sets, comprising more than a decade of global, daily images, are commonly used to evaluate aerosol transport models. The present comparison is based upon monthly averages, constructed from daily images of each data set for the period between 1984 and 1990, a period that excludes contamination from volcanic eruptions. The comparison focuses upon the Northern Hemisphere subtropical Atlantic Ocean, where soil dust aerosols make the largest contribution to the aerosol load, and are assumed to dominate the variability of each data set. While each retrieval is sensitive to a different aerosol radiative property - absorption for the TOMS AI versus reflectance for the AVHRR AOT - the seasonal cycles of dust loading implied by each retrieval are consistent, if seasonal variations in the height of the aerosol layer are taken into account when interpreting the TOMS AI. On interannual time scales, the correlation is low at most locations. It is suggested that the poor interannual correlation is at least partly a consequence of data availability. When the monthly averages are constructed using only days common to both data sets, the correlation is substantially increased: this consistency suggests that both TOMS and AVHRR accurately measure the aerosol load in any given scene. However, the two retrievals have only a few days in common per month so that these restricted monthly averages have a large uncertainty. Calculations suggest that at least 7 to 10 daily images are needed to estimate reliably the average dust load during any particular month, a threshold that is rarely satisfied by the AVHRR AOT due to the presence of clouds in the domain. By rebinning each data set onto a coarser grid, the availability of the AVHRR AOT is increased during any particular month, along with its interannual correlation with the TOMS AI The latter easily exceeds the sampling threshold due to its greater ability to infer the aerosol load in the presence of clouds. Whether the TOMS AI should be regarded as a more reliable indicator of interannual variability depends upon the extent of contamination by sub-pixel clouds.

Cakmur, R. V.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Variability of Antarctic Sea Ice 1979-1998

The principal characteristics of the variability of Antarctic sea ice cover as previously described from satellite passive-microwave observations are also evident in a systematically-calibrated and analyzed data set for 20.2 years (1979-1998). The total Antarctic sea ice extent (concentration > 15 %) increased by 13,440 +/- 4180 sq km/year (+1.18 +/- 0.37%/decade). The area of sea ice within the extent boundary increased by 16,960 +/- 3,840 sq km/year (+1.96 +/- 0.44%/decade). Regionally, the trends in extent are positive in the Weddell Sea (1.5 +/- 0.9%/decade), Pacific Ocean (2.4 +/- 1.4%/decade), and Ross (6.9 +/- 1.1 %/decade) sectors, slightly negative in the Indian Ocean (-1.5 +/- 1.8%/decade, and strongly negative in the Bellingshausen-Amundsen Seas sector (-9.5 +/- 1.5%/decade). For the entire ice pack, small ice increases occur in all seasons with the largest increase during autumn. On a regional basis, the trends differ season to season. During summer and fall, the trends are positive or near zero in all sectors except the Bellingshausen-Amundsen Seas sector. During winter and spring, the trends are negative or near zero in all sectors except the Ross Sea, which has positive trends in all seasons. Components of interannual variability with periods of about 3 to 5 years are regionally large, but tend to counterbalance each other in the total ice pack. The interannual variability of the annual mean sea-ice extent is only 1.6% overall, compared to 5% to 9% in each of five regional sectors. Analysis of the relation between regional sea ice extents and spatially-averaged surface temperatures over the ice pack gives an overall sensitivity between winter ice cover and temperature of -0.7% change in sea ice extent per K. For summer, some regional ice extents vary positively with temperature and others negatively. The observed increase in Antarctic sea ice cover is counter to the observed decreases in the Arctic. It is also qualitatively consistent with the counterintuitive prediction of a global atmospheric-ocean model of increasing sea ice around Antarctica with climate warming due to the stabilizing effects of increased snowfall on the Southern Ocean.

Zwally, H. Jay↗
NASA NTRS1994

Selective Use of Optical Variables to Control Forward Speed

Previous work on the perception and control of simulated vehicle speed has examined the contributions of optical flow rate (angular visual speed) and texture, or edge rate (frequency of passing terrain objects or markings) on the perception and control of forward speed. However, these studies have not examined the ability to selectively use edge rate or flow rate. The two studies reported here show that subjects found it very difficult to arbitrarily direct attention to one or the other of these variables; but that the ability to selectively use these variables is linked to the visual contextual information about the relative validity (linkage with speed) of the two variables. The selectivity also resulted in different velocity adaptation levels for events in which flow rate and edge rate specified forward speed. Finally, the role of visual context in directing attention was further buttressed by the finding that the incorrect perception of changes in ground texture density tended to be coupled with incorrect perceptions of changes in forward speed.

Johnson, Walter W.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Sources of Variability in Chlorophyll Analysis by Fluorometry and by High Performance Liquid Chromatography

The need for accurate determination of chlorophyll a (chl a) is of interest for numerous reasons. From the need for ground-truth data for remote sensing to pigment detection for laboratory experimentation, it is essential to know the accuracy of the analyses and the factors potentially contributing to variability and error. Numerous methods and instrument techniques are currently employed in the analyses of chl a. These methods range from spectrophotometric quantification, to fluorometric analysis and determination by high performance liquid chromatography. Even within the application of HPLC techniques, methods vary. Here we provide the results of a comparison among methods and provide some guidance for improving the accuracy of these analyses. These results are based on a round-robin conducted among numerous investigators, including several in the Sensor Intercomparison and Merger for Biological and Interdisciplinary Oceanic Studies (SIMBIOS) and HyCODE Programs. Our purpose here is not to present the full results of the laboratory intercalibration; those results will be presented elsewhere. Rather, here we highlight some of the major factors that may contribute to the variability observed. Specifically, we aim to assess the comparability of chl a analyses performed by fluorometry and HPLC, and we identify several factors in the analyses which may contribute disproportionately to this variability.

VanHeukelem, Laurie↗
NASA NTRS2001

Analytical Modeling of Variable Density Multilayer Insulation for Cryogenic Storage

A unique foam/Multilayer Insulation (MLI) combination concept for orbital cryogenic storage was experimentally evaluated at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) using the Multipurpose Hydrogen Test Bed (MHTB). The MLI was designed for an on-orbit storage period of 45 days and included several unique features such as: a variable layer density and larger but fewer perforations for venting during ascent to orbit. Test results with liquid hydrogen indicated that the MLI weight or heat leak is reduced by about half in comparison with standard MLI. The focus of this paper is on analytical modeling of the Variable Density MLI (VD-MLI) on-orbit performance (i.e. vacuum/low pressure environment). The foam/VD-MLI combination model is considered to have five segments. The first segment represents the optional foam layer. The second, third, and fourth segments represent three MLI segments with different layer densities. The last segment is considered to be a shroud that surrounds the last MLI layer. Two approaches are considered. In the first approach, the variable density MLI is modeled layer by layer while in the second approach, a semi-empirical model is applied. Both models account for thermal radiation between shields, gas conduction, and solid conduction through the layer separator materials.

Hedayat, A.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Interannual Variability in Soil Trace Gas (CO2, N2O, NO) Fluxes and Analysis of Controllers

Interannual variability in flux rates of biogenic trace gases must be quantified in order to understand the differences between short-term trends and actual long-term change in biosphere-atmosphere interactions. We simulated interannual patterns (1983-1988) of global trace gas fluxes from soils using the NASA Ames model version of CASA (Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach) in a transient simulation mode. This ecosystem model has been recalibrated for simulations driven by satellite vegetation index data from the NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) over the mid-1980s. The predicted interannual pattern of soil heterotropic CO2 emissions indicates that relatively large increases in global carbon flux from soils occurred about three years following the strong El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event of 1983. Results for the years 1986 and 1987 showed an annual increment of +1 Pg (1015 g) C-CO2 emitted from soils, which tended to dampen the estimated global increase in net ecosystem production with about a two year lag period relative to plant carbon fixation. Zonal discrimination of model results implies that 80-90 percent of the yearly positive increments in soil CO2 emission during 1986-87 were attributable to soil organic matter decomposition in the low-latitudes (between 30 N and 30 S). Soils of the northern middle-latitude zone (between 30 N and 60 N) accounted for the residual of these annual increments. Total annual emissions of nitrogen trace gases (N2O and NO) from soils were estimated to vary from 2-4 percent over the time period modeled, a level of variability which is consistent with predicted interannual fluctuations in global soil CO2 fluxes. Interannual variability of precipitation in tropical and subtropical zones (30 N to 20 S appeared to drive the dynamic inverse relationship between higher annual emissions of NO versus emissions of N2O. Global mean emission rates from natural (heterotrophic) soil sources over the period modeled (1983-1988) were estimated at 57.1 Pg C-CO2yr-1, 9.8Tg (1012 g) N-NO yr-1, and 9.7 Tg N-N2O yr-1. Chemical fertilizer contributions to global soil N gas fluxes were estimated at between 1.3 to 7.3 Tg N-NO yr-1, and 1.2 to 4.0 Tg N-N2O yr-1.

Potter, C.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Variability in Ozone in the Tropical Tropopause Region from the 1998-2000 SHADOZ (Southern Hemisphere ADditional OZonesondes) Data

The first view of stratospheric and tropospheric ozone variability in the southern hemisphere tropics is provided by a 3-year, 10-site record of ozone soundings from the Southern Hemisphere ADditional OZonesondes (SHADOZ) network. Observations covering 1998-2000 were made over Ascension Island; Nairobi, Kenya; Irene, South Africa; Reunion Island; Watukosek, Java; Fiji; Tahiti; American Samoa; San Cristobal, Galapagos; Natal, Brazil. Taking the TTL (tropical tropopause layer) as the region between 12 and 17 km, we examine ozone variability in this region on a week-to-week and seasonal basis. The TTL layer is lower in September-October-November than in March-April-May, when ozone is a minimum at most SHADOZ stations. A zonal wave-one pattern is apparent in column-integrated TTL ozone because ozone mixing ratios are greater over the Atlantic and adjacent continents than over the Pacific and eastern Indian Ocean. The wave-one persists all year with varying magnitude and appears to be due to general circulation - with subsidence over the Atlantic and frequent deep convection over the Pacific and Indian Ocean. The variability of deep convection - most prominent at Java, Fiji, Samoa and Natal - is explored in time-vs-altitude ozone curtains. Stratospheric incursions into the troposphere are most prominent in soundings at Irene and Reunion Island.

Thompson, Anne M.↗