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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 649 records · Page 36
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Real-time breath analysis towards a healthy human breath profile

Abstract The direct analysis of molecules contained within human breath has had significant implications for clinical and diagnostic applications in recent decades. However, attempts to compare one study to another or to reproduce previous work are hampered by: variability between sampling methodologies, human phenotypic variability, complex interactions between compounds within breath, and confounding signals from comorbidities. Towards this end, we have endeavored to create an averaged healthy human ‘profile’ against which follow-on studies might be compared. Through the use of direct secondary electrospray ionization combined with a high-resolution mass spectrometry and in-house bioinformatics pipeline, we seek to curate an average healthy human profile for breath and use this model to distinguish differences inter- and intra-day for human volunteers. Breath samples were significantly different in PERMANOVA analysis and ANOSIM analysis based on Time of Day, Participant ID, Date of Sample, Sex of Participant, and Age of Participant ( p < 0.001). Optimal binning analysis identify strong associations between specific features and variables. These include 227 breath features identified as unique identifiers for 28 of the 31 participants. Four signals were identified to be strongly associated with female participants and one with male participants. A total of 37 signals were identified to be strongly associated with the time-of-day samples were taken. Threshold indicator taxa analysis indicated a shift in significant breath features across the age gradient of participants with peak disruption of breath metabolites occurring at around age 32. Forty-eight features were identified after filtering from which a healthy human breath profile for all participants was created.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

New Safety Feedback Control Design to Guarantee Adequate Frequency Performance in Microgrids

Safety analysis of power systems is concerned with the system's ability to maintain critical variables within specified limits following a disturbance. Frequency control adequacy has become increasingly important as the system inertia decreases due to the increase in renewable energy penetration. Various controllers for inverters have been proposed to improve the system frequency response and few are capable to ensure the safety of the response. In this article, a diesel-wind energy system is considered and modeled as a switching system between normal, faulted, and post-fault modes. Further, a safety feedback controller is designed as a supplementary signal for a wind turbine generator such that the speed of the diesel generator stays within a permissible range in the presence of a finite energy disturbance. Numerical results on the modified 33-bus microgrid system obtained of the proposed novel approach indicate that the suggested control configuration can guarantee adequate frequency response without excessive conservativeness.

barrier function↗
DOE OSTI2026

Transient uncertainty quantification and Global Sensitivity Analysis of the open-source Molten Chloride Reactor Experiment (MCRE) using GP-PCA surrogate models

Uncertainties in the thermophysical properties of molten salts impact both the steady-state and transient behavior of Molten Salt Reactors (MSRs). In this work, we aim to quantify the influence of such uncertainties on the transient operation of the Molten Chloride Reactor Experiment (MCRE), utilizing the open-source specifications provided for this reactor. Seven representative transient scenarios are considered. For each scenario, we evaluate the impact of thermophysical property uncertainties on four key multiphysics model output variables of interest (VoIs): maximum power density, maximum fuel temperature, maximum reflector temperature, and average fuel velocity magnitude. In addition, we perform a Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) by computing Sobol’ indices for the uncertain input parameters to determine their contribution to the variability of each VoI. Conducting GSA is computationally intensive due to the large number of required evaluations of the high-fidelity multiphysics model. To mitigate this cost, we develop a surrogate modeling framework that combines Gaussian Process (GP) regression with Principal Component Analysis (PCA), enabling efficient sample generation for the GSA. Our results show that for energy-related VoIs, thermal conductivity is the dominant contributor to uncertainty. In contrast, for flow-related VoIs, density and dynamic viscosity are the primary sources of uncertainty. The specific heat of the fuel salt was found to play a secondary role in the transient analyses.

42 - ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Corrosion of rebar in concrete. Part II: Literature survey and statistical analysis of existing data on chloride threshold

The literature is reviewed with respect to defining, measuring, and interpreting the chloride threshold (CT). CT was defined with a strong fundamental basis in the Point Defect Model. which also dictates the nature of the statistical analysis of surveyed CT values. A database of CT for various primary and secondary independent variables has been established. Statistical analyses reveal that CT is lognormally distributed, in accordance with the PDM, with most probable values being 0.85, 0.69, and 1.19 for %total Cl/cem, %free Cl/cem, and [Cl - ]/[OH - ], respectively. The breakdown and corrosion potentials follow normal distributions with means of 0.056 and -0.322 V SCE , respectively.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Doppler Lidar Measurements of Wind Variability and LLJ Properties in Central Oklahoma during the August 2017 Land–Atmosphere Feedback Experiment

Abstract Low-level jets (LLJs) are an important nocturnal source of wind energy in the U.S. Great Plains. An August 2017 lidar-based field-measurement campaign [the Land–Atmosphere Feedback Experiment (LAFE)] studied LLJs over the central SGP site in Oklahoma and found nearly equal occurrences of the usual southerly jets and postfrontal northeasterly jets—typically rare during this season—for an opportunity to compare the two types of LLJs during this month. Southerly winds were stronger than the northeasterlies by more than 4 m s −1 on average, reflecting a significantly higher frequency of winds stronger than 12 m s −1 . The analysis of this dataset has been expanded to other SGP Doppler-lidar sites to quantify the variability of winds and LLJ properties between sites of different land use. Geographic variations of winds over the study area were noted: on southerly wind nights, the winds blew stronger at the highest, westernmost sites by 2 m s −1 , whereas on the northeasterly flow nights, the easternmost sites had the strongest wind speeds. Lidar measurements at 5 sites during August 2017, contrasted to the 2016–21 summertime data, revealed unusual wind and LLJ conditions. Temporal hodographs using hourly averaged winds at multiple heights revealed unorganized behavior in the turbulent stable boundary layer (SBL) below the jet nose. Above the nose, some nights showed veering qualitatively similar to inertial oscillation (IO) behavior, but at amplitudes much smaller than expected for an IO, whereas other nights showed little veering. Vertical hodographs had a linear shape in the SBL, indicating little directional shear there, and veering above, resulting in a hook-shaped hodograph with height. Significance Statement Doppler-lidar measurements at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) were used to quantify the variability of winds and low-level jet (LLJ) properties between five sites of different land use and wind regimes across this area. Knowledge of wind and LLJ structure and dynamics is important for many applications, and strong southerly LLJ winds at night are an important resource for wind energy. The analysis of multiyear (2016–21) summertime LLJ parameters provided insight into the LLJ climatology in this part of the Great Plains.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2021

Predicting drug-metagenome interactions: Variation in the microbial β-glucuronidase level in the human gut metagenomes

Characterizing the gut microbiota in terms of their capacity to interfere with drug metabolism is necessary to achieve drug efficacy and safety. Although examples of drug-microbiome interactions are well-documented, little has been reported about a computational pipeline for systematically identifying and characterizing bacterial enzymes that process particular classes of drugs. The goal of our study is to develop a computational approach that compiles drugs whose metabolism may be influenced by a particular class of microbial enzymes and that quantifies the variability in the collective level of those enzymes among individuals. The present paper describes this approach, with microbial β-glucuronidases as an example, which break down drug-glucuronide conjugates and reactivate the drugs or their metabolites. We identified 100 medications that may be metabolized by β-glucuronidases from the gut microbiome. These medications included morphine, estrogen, ibuprofen, midazolam, and their structural analogues. The analysis of metagenomic data available through the Sequence Read Archive (SRA) showed that the level of β-glucuronidase in the gut metagenomes was higher in males than in females, which provides a potential explanation for the sex-based differences in efficacy and toxicity for several drugs, reported in previous studies. Our analysis also showed that infant gut metagenomes at birth and 12 months of age have higher levels of β-glucuronidase than the metagenomes of their mothers and the implication of this observed variability was discussed in the context of breastfeeding as well as infant hyperbilirubinemia. Overall, despite important limitations discussed in this paper, our analysis provided useful insights on the role of the human gut metagenome in the variability in drug response among individuals. Importantly, this approach exploits drug and metagenome data available in public databases as well as open-source cheminformatics and bioinformatics tools to predict drug-metagenome interactions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dynamical Downscaling of Earth System Model Data for Energy System Analysis

Assessing energy resources (e.g., solar, wind, and hydro) under future scenarios requires datasets with sufficient spatial and temporal detail to capture variability and extreme events. While global-scale Earth System Model (ESM) projections are widely used, their coarse resolution limits direct application to regional energy system analyses. Dynamical downscaling offers a robust approach to generate physically consistent, fine-scale datasets that better represent local atmospheric processes impacting energy resources. In this work, we present a two-stage approach for producing high-resolution historical and future projections over the contiguous United States (CONUS). First, we optimize the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model configuration for energy-relevant variables - solar irradiance, wind speed, and precipitation - by conducting ERA5-driven simulations at 8-km and 28-km resolution. Multiple physics schemes and model configurations within the WRF are evaluated against observational datasets including the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM), and the Stage IV multi-radar/multi-sensor precipitation product for the CONUS domain. Using the best-performing configuration, we dynamically downscale MPI-ESM1-2-HR simulations for 2000-2060 under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios at 4-km spatial and hourly temporal resolution. This presentation will provide a comprehensive analysis of the results from multiple numerical experiments and high-resolution ESM projections. In addition, we will discuss potential applications of our high-resolution datasets within the energy sector and outline future research avenues dedicated to evaluating how extreme weather events influence system performance and resilience.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Uncertainty quantification and reliability assessment for intermodal freight transportation

Intermodal freight optimization models support cost-effective, low-emission, and timely goods movement by coordinating trucks, rail, and barges. These models determine optimal flows, routing, and modal switches while respecting infrastructure and operational constraints. However, their real-world utility is often undermined by pervasive uncertainties-such as fluctuating transportation costs and emissions, variable terminal capacities, and uncertain freight demand-that distort key performance outcomes, including total system cost, carbon footprint, and transit time reliability. This study presents a structured framework for quantifying uncertainty in intermodal freight transportation (IFT) optimization. The framework evaluates how input uncertainty affects system performance and reliability, a critical need for ensuring that model-based decisions remain robust under real-world variability, especially amid volatile fuel prices, shifting demand, and growing disruptions. It integrates three complementary methods: (1) Sobol-based global sensitivity analysis to identify influential parameters affecting cost, emissions, and transit time, (2) Monte Carlo-based capacity perturbation analysis to assess robustness under probabilistic facility disruptions, and (3) Monte Carlo filtering with Bayesian inference to detect threshold-based performance vulnerabilities. The results highlight diesel truck unit cost as the dominant driver of variability. To improve system resilience, planners should prioritize uncertainty in fuel-related parameters when designing intermodal strategies.

Intermodal freight transportation↗
DOE OSTI2021

Proteo-Genomic Analysis Identifies Two Major Sites of Vulnerability on Ebolavirus Glycoprotein for Neutralizing Antibodies in Convalescent Human Plasma

Three clinically relevant ebolaviruses – Ebola (EBOV), Bundibugyo (BDBV), and Sudan (SUDV) viruses, are responsible for severe disease and occasional deadly outbreaks in Africa. The largest Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic to date in 2013-2016 in West Africa highlighted the urgent need for countermeasures, leading to the development and FDA approval of the Ebola virus vaccine rVSV-ZEBOV (Ervebo ® ) in 2020 and two monoclonal antibody (mAb)-based therapeutics (Inmazeb ® [atoltivimab, maftivimab, and odesivimab-ebgn] and Ebanga ® (ansuvimab-zykl) in 2020. The humoral response plays an indispensable role in ebolavirus immunity, based on studies of mAbs isolated from the antibody genes in peripheral blood circulating ebolavirus-specific human memory B cells. However, antibodies in the body are not secreted by circulating memory B cells in the blood but rather principally by plasma cells in the bone marrow. Little is known about the protective polyclonal antibody responses in convalescent plasma. Here we exploited both single-cell antibody gene sequencing and proteomic sequencing approaches to assess the composition of the ebolavirus glycoprotein (GP)-reactive antibody repertoire in the plasma of an EVD survivor. We first identified 1,512 GP-specific mAb variable gene sequences from single cells in the memory B cell compartment. Using mass spectrometric analysis of the corresponding GP-specific plasma IgG, we found that only a portion of the large B cell antibody repertoire was represented in the plasma. Molecular and functional analysis of proteomics-identified mAbs revealed recognition of epitopes in three major antigenic sites - the GP head domain, the glycan cap, and the base region, with a high prevalence of neutralizing and protective mAb specificities that targeted the base and glycan cap regions on the GP. Polyclonal plasma antibodies from the survivor reacted broadly to EBOV, BDBV, and SUDV GP, while reactivity of the potently neutralizing mAbs we identified was limited mostly to the homologous EBOV GP. Together these results reveal a restricted diversity of neutralizing humoral response in which mAbs targeting two antigenic sites on GP – glycan cap and base – play a principal role in plasma-antibody-mediated protective immunity against EVD.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

KIC 10975348: A Double-mode or Triple-mode High-amplitude δ Scuti Star?

In this paper, we analyze the light variations of KIC 10975348 using photometric data delivered from the Kepler mission. This star is exceptionally faint (K {sub p} = 18.6 mag) compared to most well-studied δ Scuti stars. The Fourier analysis of the short-cadence data (i.e., Q14, Q15, and Q16, spanning 220 days) reveals that the variations are dominated by the strongest mode with a frequency of F0 = 10.231899 day{sup −1}, which is compatible with that obtained from RATS–Kepler. The other two independent modes with F1 (=13.4988 day{sup −1}) and F2 (=19.0002 day{sup −1}) are newly detected and have amplitudes two orders of magnitude smaller than F0. We note that, for the first time, this star is identified to be a high-amplitude δ Sct (HADS) star with an amplitude of about 0.7 mag, and the lower ratio of F0/F1 = 0.758 suggests that it might be a metal-rich variable star. The frequency F2 may be a third overtone mode, suggesting that this target might be a new radial triple-mode HADS star. We perform an O − C analysis using 1018 newly determined times of maximum light and derive an ephemeris formula of T {sub max} = 2456170.241912(0)+0.097734(1) × E. The O − C diagram shows that the pulsation period of KIC 10975348 seems to show no obvious change, which is in contrast to that of the majority of HADS stars. The possible cause of that may be due to the current short time span of the observations. To verify its possible period variations, regular observation from space with a longer time span in the future is needed.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Tale of Two Catchments: Causality Analysis and Isotope Systematics Reveal Mountainous Watershed Traits That Regulate the Retention and Release of Nitrogen

Abstract Mountainous watersheds are characterized by variability in functional traits, including vegetation, topography, geology, and geomorphology, which determine nitrogen (N) retention, and release. Coal Creek and East River are two contrasting catchments within the Upper Colorado River Basin that differ markedly in total nitrate (NO 3 − ) export. The East River has a diverse vegetation cover, and sinuous floodplains, and is underlain by N‐rich marine shale. At 0.21 ± 0.14 kg ha −1 yr −1 , the East River exports ∼3.5 times more NO 3 − relative to the conifer‐dominated Coal Creek (0.06 ± 0.02 kg ha −1 yr −1 ). While this can partly be explained by the larger size of the East River, the distinct watershed traits of these two catchments imply different mechanisms controlling the aggregate N‐export signal. A causality analysis shows physical and biogenic processes were critical in determining NO 3 − export from the East River catchment. Stable isotope ratios of NO 3 − (δ 15 N NO3 and δ 18 O NO3 ) show the East River catchment is a strong hotspot for biogeochemical processing of NO 3 − at the hillslope soil‐saprolite. By contrast, the conifer‐dominated Coal Creek retained nearly all atmospherically deposited NO 3 − , and its export was controlled by catchment hydrological traits (i.e., snowmelt periods and water table depth). The conservative N‐cycle within Coal Creek is likely due to the abundance of conifer trees, and smaller riparian regions, retaining more NO 3 − overall and reduced processing prior to export. This study highlights the value of integrating isotope systematics to link watershed functional traits to mechanisms of watershed element retention and release.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

RhizoNet segments plant roots to assess biomass and growth for enabling self-driving labs

Abstract Flatbed scanners are commonly used for root analysis, but typical manual segmentation methods are time-consuming and prone to errors, especially in large-scale, multi-plant studies. Furthermore, the complex nature of root structures combined with noisy backgrounds in images complicates automated analysis. Addressing these challenges, this article introduces RhizoNet, a deep learning-based workflow to semantically segment plant root scans. Utilizing a sophisticated Residual U-Net architecture, RhizoNet enhances prediction accuracy and employs a convex hull operation for delineation of the primary root component. Its main objective is to accurately segment root biomass and monitor its growth over time. RhizoNet processes color scans of plants grown in a hydroponic system known as EcoFAB, subjected to specific nutritional treatments. The root detection model using RhizoNet demonstrates strong generalization in the validation tests of all experiments despite variable treatments. The main contributions are the standardization of root segmentation and phenotyping, systematic and accelerated analysis of thousands of images, significantly aiding in the precise assessment of root growth dynamics under varying plant conditions, and offering a path toward self-driving labs.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

REGULATORY TESTING AND POSTTEST ANALYSIS OF THE DPP-3 TYPE B SHIPPING CONTAINER FOR NCT AND HAC TESTS

The safe transportation of radioactive material using appropriately designed and certified transportation packages is important to protect the public and environment. Therefore, a comprehensive and rigorous system of packaging requirements are required. The purpose of this test protocol is to determine the effects of drop testing on package performance in a Type B shipping package (DPP-3). Required physical tests for the DPP-3 package include normal conditions of transport and hypothetical accident conditions test requirements. The preparation, regulatory testing, and post-test evaluation of a Type B shipping package tested to the 10 CFR 71.71 and 10 CFR 71.73 requirements will be presented. Six packages were tested and the responses when subjected to the HAC sequence of free drop, puncture, and thermal tests according to 10 CFR 71.73 were measured. The posttest helium leak test showed a leak rate less than 1 × 10-7 He-cc/sec which means that the containment boundary was maintained after the regulatory testing, therefore maintaining a leak tight environment. To determine the amount of change in the package performance measurements, statistical analyses were conducted using SPSS version 26. The null hypothesis of the testing was that there would not be a change in the measurements from pre to post-testing large enough to find statistical significance. Therefore, a finding of statistical significance indicated too much variability in the package design and was deemed an unfavorable finding. A repeated measures t-test was used to analyze the drum lids and CV torques. A one-way ANOVA was used to analyze height and diameter packages. Results of the repeated measures t-test indicated that all six containment vessel lid torques were statistically significant. However only three out of the six drum lid torques were statistically significant. Therefore, design of the lids caused more variability than necessary when subjected to the following drop tests: 1.) horizontal and cold; 2.) vertical lid down; and 3.) corner with lid up. Results of the one-way ANOVA analysis on height indicated that four out of the six CTUs were statistically significant. Thus, design of the CTUs caused more variability then necessary when subjected to the following drop tests: 1.) horizontal hot; 2.) horizontal cold; 3.) corner lid up; and 4.) corner lid down. Results of the one-way ANOVA analysis on diameter indicated that all six CTUs were statistically significant. Thus, design of the CTUs caused more variability then necessary when subjected to all of the tests. The DPP-3 design has been shown to be an acceptable design for the transport of radioactive materials. However, results of the statistical analysis reveal a possible improvement in package and test design to reduce variability in package performance measurement before and after testing.

Martinez, Oscar↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hydrologic Model Data for the East Fork Poplar Creek Watershed Simulated with the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS): Streamflow and Network Expansion–Contraction Dynamics

This dataset supports hydrologic modeling and stream network expansion–contraction analysis for the East Fork Poplar Creek (EFPC) Watershed in Tennessee. It includes a Jupyter notebook for model setup, model configuration files, simulation outputs, and derived products used to evaluate model performance and investigate stream dynamics under varying hydrologic conditions. The dataset was generated using the Watershed Workflow Python package and the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), enabling integrated surface–subsurface hydrologic simulations using a stream-aligned mesh. Outputs include high-resolution time series of streamflow, active network length, water table depth, and related hydrologic variables. Also included are spatially explicit stream persistency indices and classifications of reaches as perennial or non-perennial. These data facilitate reproducibility and support further research on stream intermittency and variability in network extent.The model data archive is organized in following directories:1) model_setup_inputsContains the Watershed Workflow Jupyter notebooks (accessed through any open source code editor), selected input datasets, and resulting ATS input files, including XML files (access through any open source code editor), computational mesh (.exo files can be viewed using Paraview), and meteorological forcing files (.h5 files can be accessed through h5py python package and HDFView open source software). 2) model_outputsIncludes ATS simulation outputs relevant to this study. Time series of spatially integrated or averaged variables (e.g., streamflow, water table depth) are provided as CSV files. Select spatial fields (e.g., ponded depth and water table depth) are saved as pickled Python objects to reduce file size, and can be accessed through pickle package in Python. Key geometry objects from Watershed Workflow—such as the surface mesh and river tree—are also included to support analysis of streamflow persistency and expansion–contraction dynamics. These files can also be accessed through Watershed Workflow Python package.3) model_evaluationProvides observed streamflow time series and field survey-based flow regime classifications used to evaluate model performance. Jupyter notebooks for processing ATS outputs and comparing model predictions with observations to build confidence in the model prior to scientific analysis are also included.4) Q_L_relationshipsContains workflows for generating time series of discharge, active network length, and related hydrologic variables used in the stream network expansion–contraction analysis. Includes routines for delineating baseflow-dominated periods. For each catchment, notebooks and processed data (as pickled DataFrames accessed through Pandas Python package) are provided. 5) figure_scriptsProvides the Jupyter notebooks used to generate the figures presented in the paper.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic Assessment of Structural Integrity

A probability-based approach, combining deterministic and probabilistic methods, was developed for analyzing building and component failures, which are especially crucial for complex structures like nuclear power plants. This method links finite element and probabilistic software to assess structural integrity under static and dynamic loads. This study uses NEPTUNE software, which is validated, for a deterministic transient analysis and ProFES software for probabilistic models. In a case study, deterministic analyses with varied random variables were transferred to ProFES for probabilistic analyses of piping failure and wall damage. A Monte Carlo Simulation, First-Order Reliability Method, and combined methods were employed for probabilistic analyses under severe transient loading, focusing on a postulated accident at the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant. The study considered uncertainties in material properties, component geometry, and loads. The results showed the Monte Carlo Simulation method to be conservative for high failure probabilities but less so for low probabilities. The Response Surface/Monte Carlo Simulation method explored the impact load–failure probability relationship. Given the uncertainties in material properties and loads in complex structures, a deterministic analysis alone is insufficient. Probabilistic analysis is imperative for extreme loading events and credible structural safety evaluations.

Mathematics↗
DOE OSTI2025

A unified ensemble soil moisture dataset across the continental United States

Abstract A unified ensemble soil moisture (SM) package has been developed over the Continental United States (CONUS). The data package includes 19 products from land surface models, remote sensing, reanalysis, and machine learning models. All datasets are unified to a 0.25-degree and monthly spatiotemporal resolution, providing a comprehensive view of surface SM dynamics. The statistical analysis of the datasets leverages the Koppen-Geiger Climate Classification to explore surface SM’s spatiotemporal variabilities. The extracted SM characteristics highlight distinct patterns, with the western CONUS showing larger coefficient of variation values and the eastern CONUS exhibiting higher SM values. Remote sensing datasets tend to be drier, while reanalysis products present wetter conditions. In-situ SM observations serve as the basis for wavelet power spectrum analyses to explain discrepancies in temporal scales across datasets facilitating daily SM records. This study provides a comprehensive soil moisture data package and an analysis framework that can be used for Earth system model evaluations and uncertainty quantification, quantifying drought impacts and land–atmosphere interactions and making recommendations for drought response planning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Influence of the Kuroshio Intrusion on Deep Flow Intraseasonal Variability in the Northern South China Sea

Abstract Interactions between the open ocean and marginal seas have been suggested to be critical to the redistribution and dissipation of global energy. Here, we propose a mechanism for the upper open ocean influencing the deep flow in marginal seas that hinges on the formation and propagation of topographic Rossby waves (TRWs). Observations and high‐resolution simulations suggest substantial intraseasonal variability with periods of 5–60 days associated with the deep flow over continental slopes of the northern South China Sea (NSCS). These fluctuations generally account for over 40% of the total deep kinetic energy variability and the number can reach 70% over the slopes to the west of the Luzon Strait, southwest of the Dongsha Islands, and northeast of the Xisha Islands. By examining the spatiotemporal features of the fluctuations, we demonstrate that the intraseasonal variability of the deep flow in the NSCS is closely associated with TRWs. Using a recently developed multiscale energetics analysis in combination with a ray tracing model, we show that the energy sources of TRWs can be traced back to the east of the Dongsha Islands, where the Kuroshio intrusion and related eddies energize the TRWs primarily through pressure work. These waves propagate westward across the NSCS and drive the intraseasonal variability of the deep flow over continental slopes. Our findings highlight an energy pathway from the open ocean western boundary current to the abyssal marginal sea that could modulate regional circulation as well as exchanges between major ocean basins.

Quan, Qi↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evolving Metrics for Resource Adequacy Assessment

Resource adequacy analysis quantifies the likelihood of capacity shortfall on a power system in a probabilistic manner. Using a combination of statistical techniques and power system fundamentals, the analysis typically evaluates hundreds or thousands of stochastic random samples (replications) of varying load, generator outages, variable renewable energy availability, and other aspects of power system uncertainty. In this range of uncertainty, there are - at times - periods where the power system's available resources are insufficient to meet system demand, referred to as a shortfall event. Today's power systems' rapidly evolving generation mix is changing the types of data needed by system planners and regulators, which can often render traditional resource adequacy metrics insufficient for ensuring resource adequacy for tomorrow's grid. In this paper we provide a critical assessment of traditional measures of shortfall risk in power systems, discussing their shortcomings and how they compare to metrics used in other domains. From this analysis we propose four steps forward for improving power system resource adequacy risk metrics in the future.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,POWER TRANSMI↗