Results for “time series analysis” — Page 36

NASA NTRS1989

An empirically derived figure of merit for the quality of overall task performance

The need to develop an operationally relevant figure of merit for the quality of performance of a complex system such as an aircraft cockpit stems from a hypothesized dissociation between measures of performance and those of workload. Performance can be measured in terms of time, errors, or a combination of these. In most tasks performed by expert operators, errors are relatively rare and often corrected in time to avoid consequences. Moreover, perfect performance is seldom necessary to accomplish a particular task. Moreover, how well an expert performs a complex task consisting of a series of discrete cognitive tasks superimposed on a continuous task, such as flying an aircraft, does not depend on how well each discrete task is performed, but on their smooth sequencing. This makes the amount of time spent on each subtask of paramount importance in measuring overall performance, since smooth sequencing requires a minimum amount of time spent on each task. Quality consists in getting tasks done within a crucial time interval while maintaining acceptable continuous task performance. Thus, a figure of merit for overall quality of performance should be primarily a measure of time to perform discrete subtasks combined with a measure of basic vehicle control. Thus, the proposed figure of merit requires doing a task analysis on a series of performance, or runs, of a particular task, listing each discrete task and its associated time, and calculating the mean and standard deviation of these times, along with the mean and standard deviation of tracking error for the whole task. A set of simulator data on 30 runs of a landing task was obtained and a figure of merit will be calculated for each run. The figure of merit will be compared for voice and data link, so that the impact of this technology on total crew performance (not just communication performance) can be assessed. The effect of data link communication on other cockpit tasks will also be considered.

Lemay, Moira↗

NASA NTRS2024

Iona Ecological Conservation: Utilizing Earth Observations to Understand Landscape Patterns and Assist in Wildlife Management in Iona National Park, Angola

Following the end of the Angolan civil war in 2002, human and livestock populations have increased exponentially within Iona National Park. An ongoing drought since 2017 has brought these people and livestock into increasing competition with local wildlife for resources – highlighting a conservation challenge that will become more entrenched as the effects of anthropogenic climate change increase. In 2019, African Parks began co-managing Iona National Park in Angola with the Angolan government, hoping to enact scientifically grounded management strategies to meet this challenge. To accomplish this, African Parks needed contemporary and historic information on the spatial distribution of landcover types within Iona and adjacent areas. We constructed and applied a Random Forest classifier in Google Earth Engine to multispectral imagery gathered from Landsat 5, 7, 8 and Sentinel-1 and 2 to meet this need. Using the classifier, we generated a time-series of land cover maps between 1990–2023, from which landscape metrics and change detection analysis were calculated to show how certain habitats and formations had changed over time. The resulting maps have producer and user’s accuracies above 87% and show four broad landcover regions within the study area. Notably, we observed a decrease in the park’s diversity as per the Shannon Diversity Index – an index that considers the richness of classes, as well the evenness of their distribution. A lack of arid specific land cover indices and ground-truthed training data from earlier years limited the accuracy and resolution of our landcover maps. However, this project still demonstrates that Earth observations can be used to form the basis of conservation policy in arid environments, where ground-truth data may be difficult to obtain or non-existent.

remote sensing↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Circularity Assessment for Silicon Solar Panels Based on Dynamic Material Flow Analysis: Preprint

Solar photovoltaics (PV) are the fastest growing renewable energy technology for clean, inexpensive, and sustainable electricity generation. Along with numerous technical roadmaps to improve system cost, performance and reliability, the PV industry should also plan to handle large volumes of silicon panel waste, which is initially estimated to be ~13 million metric tons (MT) by 2050 in the U.S. alone. Understanding the magnitude of material needs and how material flows throughout the PV panel life cycle could respond to design, operational and different end-of-life (EOL) circular pathways will help transition into a circular, resource-conserving economy. Herein, we introduce a dynamic material flow analysis (DMFA) framework based on electricity generation to quantify time-series stocks and flows of bulk PV materials (e.g., solar glass and aluminum frames) throughout the life cycles of utility-scale silicon PV systems in the U.S. in the period 2000-2100. We apply the model to a range of scenarios to understand how material demands depend on selected PV-related parameters, different material circularity strategies, and recent module design trends (e.g., bifacial, frameless). We found that float glass and aluminum in PV installations would likely reach 100 million MT and 12 million MT by 2100, respectively, in the baseline scenario. The most influential parameters for PV installation and subsequent waste reduction are found to be module lifetime, module efficiency, annual degradation, and material reduction. Module recycling and component remanufacturing were found to be the most effective material circularity strategies for waste minimization. Panel reuse has negligible savings on waste under current module efficiencies compared to replacements with newer generations with higher efficiency. Ongoing trends to produce larger power frameless modules could save 10 million MT of glass and ~9 million MT of aluminum. Our results enable advanced planning for future materials needs and provide insight into potential opportunities to minimize waste.

circular economy↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Circularity Assessment for Silicon Solar Panels Based on Dynamic Material Flow Analysis

Solar photovoltaics (PV) are the fastest growing renewable energy technology for clean, inexpensive, and sustainable electricity generation. Along with numerous technical roadmaps to improve system cost, performance and reliability, the PV industry should also plan to handle large volumes of silicon panel waste, which is initially estimated to be ~13 million metric tons (MT) by 2050 in the U.S. alone. Understanding the magnitude of material needs and how material flows throughout the PV panel life cycle could respond to design, operational and different end-of-life (EOL) circular pathways will help transition into a circular, resource-conserving economy. Herein, we introduce a dynamic material flow analysis (DMFA) framework based on electricity generation to quantify time-series stocks and flows of bulk PV materials (e.g., solar glass and aluminum frames) throughout the life cycles of utility-scale silicon PV systems in the U.S. in the period 2000-2100. We apply the model to a range of scenarios to understand how material demands depend on selected PV-related parameters, different material circularity strategies, and recent module design trends (e.g., bifacial, frameless). We found that float glass and aluminum in PV installations would likely reach 100 million MT and 12 million MT by 2100, respectively, in the baseline scenario. The most influential parameters for PV installation and subsequent waste reduction are found to be module lifetime, module efficiency, annual degradation, and material reduction. Module recycling and component remanufacturing were found to be the most effective material circularity strategies for waste minimization. Panel reuse has negligible savings on waste under current module efficiencies compared to replacements with newer generations with higher efficiency. Ongoing trends to produce larger power frameless modules could save 10 million MT of glass and ~9 million MT of aluminum. Our results enable advanced planning for future materials needs and provide insight into potential opportunities to minimize waste.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS1990

Periodic trim solutions with hp-version finite elements in time

Finite elements in time as an alternative strategy for rotorcraft trim problems are studied. The research treats linear flap and linearized flap-lag response both for quasi-trim and trim cases. The connection between Fourier series analysis and hp-finite elements for periodic a problem is also examined. It is proved that Fourier series is a special case of space-time finite elements in which one element is used with a strong displacement formulation. Comparisons are made with respect to accuracy among Fourier analysis, displacement methods, and mixed methods over a variety parameters. The hp trade-off is studied for the periodic trim problem to provide an optimum step size and order of polynomial for a given error criteria. It is found that finite elements in time can outperform Fourier analysis for periodic problems, and for some given error criteria. The mixed method provides better results than does the displacement method.

Peters, David A.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Periodic trim solutions with hp-version finite elements in time

Finite elements in time as an alternative strategy for rotorcraft trim problems are studied. The research treats linear flap and linearized flap-lag response both for quasi-trim and trim cases. The connection between Fourier series analysis and hp-finite elements for periodic a problem is also examined. It is proved that Fourier series is a special case of space-time finite elements in which one element is used with a strong displacement formulation. Comparisons are made with respect to accuracy among Fourier analysis, displacement methods, and mixed methods over a variety parameters. The hp trade-off is studied for the periodic trim problem to provide an optimum step size and order of polynomial for a given error criteria. It is found that finite elements in time can outperform Fourier analysis for periodic problems, and for some given error criteria. The mixed method provides better results than does the displacement method.

Hou, Lin-Jun↗

DOE OSTI2024

Approximate entropy analysis for nonlinear beam dynamics

In this paper, we applied an approximate entropy (ApEn) analysis to nonlinear beam dynamics. Due to the presence of strong nonlinear magnets, the degree of chaos in beam motion gradually increases proportionally with its amplitude. Such chaos can be quantitatively characterized with ApEn of beam turn-by-turn readings. ApEn analysis is a technique used to quantify the amount of regularity and the unpredictability of fluctuations with respect to time-series data. The ApEn, when applied as a chaos indicator, can then be used for nonlinear lattice optimization and analysis. The National Synchrotron Light Source II (NSLS-II) electron storage ring lattice was used as an example of a real-world application of our technique. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Approximate Entropy Analysis for Nonlinear Beam Dynamics

In this paper, we applied an approximate entropy (ApEn) analysis to nonlinear beam dynamics. Due to the presence of strong nonlinear magnets, the degree of chaos in beam motion gradually increases proportionally with its amplitude. Such chaos can be quantitatively characterized with ApEn of beam turn-by-turn readings. ApEn analysis is a technique used to quantify the amount of regularity and the unpredictability of fluctuations with respect to time-series data. The ApEn, when applied as a chaos indicator, can then be used for nonlinear lattice optimization and analysis. The National Synchrotron Light Source II (NSLS-II) electron storage ring lattice was used as an example of a real-world application of our technique.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Do we have globally representative data to understand soil processes?

Understanding and modeling soils and soil organic matter (SOM) are central to a variety of human needs, from food production to ecosystem management. Soil data have been collected for over a century, but the global spatial and process representativeness of soil data remains unclear. We assessed the representativeness of currently available soil data that could be used to understand a variety of SOM processes. We used 16 open-source soil databases and data from over 281,000 unique locations globally, categorizing the databases into three main data types necessary to understand SOM processes: soil carbon stocks and fluxes, mechanistic drivers of these stocks and fluxes, and soil carbon gain or loss potential. We found that stock and driver data have extensive global coverage. However, data on soil carbon gain or loss potential, particularly data describing change in soils over time such as time series data, are severely limited in their global coverage. We conclude that while significant strides have been made in measuring soil carbon stocks and fluxes, and their drivers, we are limited in global data related to changes in soils over time. Our recommendations for soil data generators are to ensure precise metadata reporting and prioritizing sampling in underrepresented areas like tropical, arctic, mountainous, wetland and arid regions. We also encourage designing revisit schemes that explicitly support change detection and reporting multi-modal datasets that can aid in model development. Targeted measurement of low coverage soil data types and regions is necessary for a range of applications including current and future biogeochemical predictions, and their management and policy implications.

carbon fluxes↗

DOE OSTI2020

Grid Impact Analysis of Heavy-Duty Electric Vehicle Charging Stations

This paper presents a grid impact analysis of heavy-duty electric vehicle (EV) charging stations. In this work, heavy-duty EVs have battery capacities high enough to provide a range of 250-500 miles on a single charge, such as long-haul trucks. Heavy-duty EVs will require extremely fast charging rates to reduce charging time and will induce very high charging loads (at the multiple-megawatt scale) if several vehicles charge at the same time. Therefore, analysis is needed to understand the impact of charging station loads on the electric power grid and set the baseline for developing mitigation plans and necessary system upgrades. We develop a systematic procedure to analyze the potential impact of the placement of charging stations on the grid. Charging load is modeled using a DC fast-charging station model. A voltage load sensitivity matrix approach is leveraged to investigate the challenges of placing charging stations on the feeder. Given the charging load profiles and suggested charging station locations, time-series simulations are performed on various connection points on the feeder to understand the impact. The analysis is performed on both the IEEE 34-bus system and a realistic feeder from California. Initial mitigation solutions are developed based on insights from this analysis.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

NASA NTRS2001

Chromospheric Structure and Wind Acceleration in Zeta Aur Stars

This NASA grant supported an analysis of the variability of the wind of the supergiant primary star (K4 Ib) in the eclipsing binary Zeta Aurigae (Zeta Aur). In the ultraviolet, the main-sequence companion star (B5 V) dominates the observed flux, and therefore serves as a convenient probe of the cool supergiant's wind. This study utilized the extensive set of (100+) ultraviolet spectroscopic observations obtained with the International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE) satellite over its operational lifetime of 1978-1995. Although the resolution of IUE is limited (about 25 km/s), it is adequate to resolve variability in the wind features in Zeta Aur's ultraviolet spectrum, which are blueshifted 70 km/s from line center. Our analysis used the tau-v technique of Cardelli and Savage, which makes full use of the available line profile information. We find that the wind column densities vary by up to an order of magnitude over time. These results are being written up for submission to the Astrophysical Journal as the third paper of a series on the chromosphere and wind of Zeta Aurigae. The first two papers report on the construction of mean chromosphere and wind models respectively, based on HST/GHRS observations and funded by STScI. The third paper - this research - reports on variability of the Zeta Aur wind as determined from our analysis of the long IUE time series. This paper will be completed within the next three months; the delay in publication was to allow the completion of Papers 1 and 2, which logically precede the present work. Therefore, an additional no-cost extension was requested in order to ensure budgeted funds remain available for publication of this work. Unfortunately, this request was denied, and so I am forced to write this final report before publication of Paper 3. Regardless, this paper will be submitted for publication within the next three months.

Bennett, Philip D.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Methods for trend analysis: Examples with problem/failure data

Statistics are emphasized as an important role in quality control and reliability. Consequently, Trend Analysis Techniques recommended a variety of statistical methodologies that could be applied to time series data. The major goal of the working handbook, using data from the MSFC Problem Assessment System, is to illustrate some of the techniques in the NASA standard, some different techniques, and to notice patterns of data. Techniques for trend estimation used are: regression (exponential, power, reciprocal, straight line) and Kendall's rank correlation coefficient. The important details of a statistical strategy for estimating a trend component are covered in the examples. However, careful analysis and interpretation is necessary because of small samples and frequent zero problem reports in a given time period. Further investigations to deal with these issues are being conducted.

Church, Curtis K.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Visualization and Analysis of Multi-scale Land Surface Products via Giovanni Portals

Large volumes of MODIS land data products at multiple spatial resolutions have been integrated into the Giovanni online analysis system to support studies on land cover and land use changes,focused on the Northern Eurasia and Monsoon Asia regions through the LCLUC program. Giovanni (Goddard Interactive Online Visualization ANd aNalysis Infrastructure) is a Web-based application developed by the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC), providing a simple and intuitive way to visualize, analyze, and access Earth science remotely-sensed and modeled data.Customized Giovanni Web portals (Giovanni-NEESPI andGiovanni-MAIRS) have been created to integrate land, atmospheric,cryospheric, and societal products, enabling researchers to do quick exploration and basic analyses of land surface changes, and their relationships to climate, at global and regional scales. This presentation shows a sample Giovanni portal page, lists selected data products in the system, and illustrates potential analyses with imagesand time-series at global and regional scales, focusing on climatology and anomaly analysis. More information is available at the GES DISCMAIRS data support project portal: http:disc.sci.gsfc.nasa.govmairs.

Shen, Suhung↗

DOE OSTI2023

CODAS Data from Oliktok Point, Beaufort Sea, Alaska

Cryosphere/Ocean Distributed Acoustic Sensing (CODAS) data collected from the Beaufort Sea, Alaska, using ~37.4 km of dark telecommunications fiber located at Oliktok Point, Alaska. Data were collected with a Silixa iDAS, using 10 m gauge length, 2 m spatial resolution, and 1000 Hz sample rate. Provided here are the DAS-recorded time series for the rapid refreeze event described in Baker & Abbott (2022) (see link below). This covers a date range of 2021-11-10 15:00 UTC to 2021-11-11 17:00 UTC. Data have been decimated to 100 Hz and 20 m (i.e., every 10th channel for 1831 channels, total), as used in Baker & Abbott (2022). Data have been extracted from raw format into 1-hour long .sac* files and organized into directories by channel number, spanning channels 100 to 18400. Time series units are nano-strainrate (nm/m/s). For distribution, data have been compressed into .zip files containing all time series files for 100 channels. *For information on the Seismic Analysis Code (SAC) file format: https://seiscode.iris.washington.edu/projects/sac

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

NASA NTRS1979

Fundamentals of heat measurement

Various methods and devices for obtaining experimental data on heat flux density over wide ranges of temperature and pressure are examined. Laboratory tests and device fabrication details are supplemented by theoretical analyses of heat-conduction and thermoelectric effects, providing design guidelines and information relevant to further research and development. A theory defining the measure of correspondence between transducer signal and the measured heat flux is established for individual (isolated) heat flux transducers subject to space and time-dependent loading. An analysis of the properties of stacked (series-connected) transducers of various types (sandwich-type, plane, and spiral) is used to derive a similarity theory providing general governing relationships. The transducers examined are used in 36 types of derivative devices involving direct heat loss measurements, heat conduction studies, radiation pyrometry, calorimetry in medicine and industry and nuclear reactor dosimetry.

Gerashchenko, O. A.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Evaluation of the CEAS model for barley yields in North Dakota and Minnesota

The CEAS yield model is based upon multiple regression analysis at the CRD and state levels. For the historical time series, yield is regressed on a set of variables derived from monthly mean temperature and monthly precipitation. Technological trend is represented by piecewise linear and/or quadriatic functions of year. Indicators of yield reliability obtained from a ten-year bootstrap test (1970-79) demonstrated that biases are small and performance as indicated by the root mean square errors are acceptable for intended application, however, model response for individual years particularly unusual years, is not very reliable and shows some large errors. The model is objective, adequate, timely, simple and not costly. It considers scientific knowledge on a broad scale but not in detail, and does not provide a good current measure of modeled yield reliability.

Barnett, T. L.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Comparative climatology of four marine stratocumulus regimes

The climatology of marine stratocumulus (MSc) cloud regimes off the west coasts of California, Peru, Morocco, and Angola are examined. Long-term, annual averages are presented for several quantities of interest in the four MSc regimes. The climatologies were constructed using the Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (COADS). A 40 year time series of observations was extracted for 32 x 32 deg analysis domains. The data were taken from the monthly-averaged, 2 deg product. The resolution of the analysis is therefore limited to scales of greater than 200 km with submonthly variability not resolved. The averages of total cloud cover, sea surface temperature, and surface pressure are presented.

Hanson, Howard P.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Wavelet analysis introduction and application to radar scattering from water waves

Double-parameter expansions, leading to an instantaneous multiscale analysis, are used to obtain time-frequency graphs from time-series data for interpretation of scatterometer response to sea surface geometry. This method is used to define, as well as possible, one-dimensional signal input (elevation and slope). However, some important fundamental parameters, such as the asymmetric development of short scales in crests and troughs, the long-wave amplitude modulation, the different zero-crossings, and so forth, are easily extracted from the wavelet images.

Chapron, B.↗