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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 649 records · Page 36
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Short-term Electricity Price Forecasting with Constrained Regressors

The volatility of electricity price presents a challenge to market participants as their decision-making process are highly depend on the accuracy of price forecasts. However, there is growing empirical evidence of increasing price volatility and price spikes in electricity markets as a result of variable renewable energy generation, extreme weather events, and other factors. The distribution shift caused by spikes in electricity price data differentiates the forecasting tasks from other renewable energy sources. Moreover, the observations may be compromised by cyberattacks and thus not available in the testing phase. To this end, we propose a Similarity-Enhanced Electricity Decomposition Forecasting model (SEED-Forecaster) to address the missing response problem and spikes capturing in short-term electricity price forecasting. The effectiveness of the proposed framework is tested on real-world electricity price data from California Independent System Operator (CAISO). Numerical results of case studies show that the proposed SEED-Forecsater can enhance forecasting performance, particularly in capturing electricity spikes, even under conditions without regressors during testing stage.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Skipper CCD Long-Term Vacuum Chamber

The Skipper CCD is a high-sensitivity Charge Coupled Device (CCD) sensor designed at Fermilab that has extremely low readout noise. The Skipper can only be operated at pressures below 10-4Torr (about a millionth of an atmosphere). The purpose of this project was to investigate whether a long-term vacuum chamber could be used for the Skipper CCD, which would require only being re-pumped once a year. This would allow the Skipper to be fully integrated here at Fermilab and then be transported anywhere for immediate use.

Struven, Wolfgang↗
DOE OSTI2024

Temporal sequence transformer to advance long-term streamflow prediction

Accurate streamflow prediction is crucial for understanding climate change impacts on water resources and for effective management of extreme hydrological events. While Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks have been the dominant data-driven approach for streamflow forecasting, recent advancements in transformer architectures for time series tasks have shown promise in outperforming traditional LSTM models. This study introduces a transformer-based model that integrates historical streamflow data with climatic variables to enhance streamflow prediction accuracy. We evaluated our transformer model against a benchmark LSTM across five diverse basins in the United States. Results demonstrate that the transformer architecture consistently outperforms the LSTM model across all evaluation metrics, highlighting its potential as a more effective tool for hydrological forecasting. This research contributes to the ongoing development of advanced AI techniques for improved water resource management and climate change adaptation strategies.

Singh, Ruhaan [Farragut High School]↗
DOE OSTI2026

Geothermal Heat Pump System Showcase: Short-Term Validation of Borehole Heat Exchanger Performance from Field Data to Numerical Modeling: Preprint

Since 2011, a geothermal heat pump (GHP) system has been operating to provide space heating and cooling for the Solar Radiation and Research Laboratory building at the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) in Golden, Colorado. The system consists of 23 vertical boreholes, each extending to a depth of 300 ft (91 m), connected to 11 water-to-air heat pump units and four circulation pumps. Between fiscal years 2023 and 2025, additional power meters and temperature sensors were retrofitted to support detailed system performance assessment and model development. This study presents preliminary monitoring results and the development of an initial numerical model of the borehole heat exchanger field. The model incorporated site-specific geometry, ground thermal properties derived from thermal response tests, and ambient temperatures, and simulated system behavior over a representative operating day in September. Model predictions of outlet temperatures were compared against corresponding field measurements. Results showed that modeling initialized with a simplified linear subsurface temperature gradient presents systematic discrepancies in outlet temperature, whereas incorporating depth-resolved borehole temperature measurements for initialization yields substantially improved agreement with observations. The findings highlight the sensitivity of short-term predictive modeling to the representation of initial subsurface thermal conditions and underscore the value of high-resolution field measurements for model calibration and validation. These preliminary results inform ongoing efforts to extend the modeling framework to longer time horizons and to refine monitoring and modeling strategies that support the design guidance and operational optimization of GHP systems in research and commercial buildings.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Time-temperature-superposition analysis of diverse datasets by the minimum-arclength method: long-term prediction with uncertainty margins

In a recent publication, we carried out an extensive analysis of an unsupervised method of determining optimum shift factors in time-temperature-superposition of accelerated-aging data that involves minimizing the vertical arclength to obtain the master curve. For synthetic Arrhenius data with a variety of noise distributions, the work showed that, in conjunction with bootstrap-resampling, the method can produce reliable estimates of the mean activation energy along with uncertainty quantification. Here, we apply the above method to six different datasets taken from the published literature and demonstrate accurate prediction of mean activation energy from the data as-is without the need for any pre-processing or fitting. We also compare uncertainty margins computed by second-order bootstrap with that by linear regression theory and show that the former appears to provide consistent margins in the presence of common noise types in real data, including intra-isotherm measurement-errors, sample-to-sample variations, and intrinsic deviation from perfect Arrhenius behavior.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Long-term thermal aging of parylene conformal coating under high humidity and its effects on tin whisker mitigation

Usage of pure tin (Sn) or Sn-rich alloy in electronics industry is growing, which makes them more susceptible to the spontaneous growth of tin whiskers. The risk of having these whiskers can be dramatically mitigated by applying a conformal coating provided that it not only possesses excellent mechanical and adhesion properties but also maintains these properties throughout their service. Parylene C is commonly used as a conformal coating because of its favorable mechanical and physical properties, as well as superior conformal coverage. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the degradation of parylene C coating during the thermal aging in high humidity environment (85°C/85% relative humidity for up to 5000hrs) and its effect on the tin whisker mitigation capacity. It was observed that during aging at high temperature and high humidity (HTHH) environment, the oxidation occurs at early times, followed by bond scission, resulting in the loss of strength of the coating. Thinner parylene coating (12.5-μm-thick) had better coating adhesion on the silane-treated tin surface, so provided the better protection for tin whisker penetration than the thicker counterpart (25-μm-thick). After 2500hrs of aging, due to the degradation of the silane agent at the tin/parylene interface, the adhesion of the parylene coating was significantly weakened on the tin surface, which resulted in extensive corrosion of the tin solderpads. The loss of adhesion of the coating, along with the corrosion of the tin surface facilitated the tin whisker nucleation at the interface while the loss of mechanical strength and the brittleness made the coating easily penetrated by the growing whiskers. Tin whiskers with a smaller diameter were buckled and grew along the delaminated region while those with a larger diameter penetrated and continued to grow through the coating. Hence, the effectiveness of the parylene coatings on tin whisker mitigation is significantly reduced under long exposure to such high temperature and high humidity.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Interfacial stabilization for inverted perovskite solar cells with long-term stability

Perovskite solar cells (PSCs) commonly exhibit significant performance degradation due to ion migration through the top charge transport layer and ultimately metal electrode corrosion. Here, we demonstrate an interfacial management strategy using a boron chloride subphthalocyanine (Cl 6 SubPc)/fullerene electron-transport layer, which not only passivates the interfacial defects in the perovskite, but also suppresses halide diffusion as evidenced by multiple techniques, including visual element mapping by electron energy loss spectroscopy. As a result, we obtain inverted PSCs with an efficiency of 22.0% (21.3% certified), shelf life of 7000 h, Τ 80 of 816 h under damp heat stress (compared to less than 20 h without Cl 6 SubPc), and initial performance retention of 98% after 2000 h at 80 °C in inert environment, 90% after 2034 h of illumination and maximum power point tracking in ambient for encapsulated devices and 95% after 1272 h outdoor testing ISOS-O-1. Our strategy and results pave a new way to move PSCs forward to their potential commercialization solidly.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Performance Restoration of Iron Electrodes by Polarity Reversal after Long-Term Surface Fouling in Wastewater Electrocoagulation

Iron electrocoagulation (Fe-EC) performance often declines with time, producing lower contaminant removal efficiencies and higher energy requirements due to formation of a fouling layer on the electrodes. Here, we investigate the formation of the fouling layer and the effectiveness of polarity reversal to restore the Fe-EC performance. A thin, porous iron oxide layer initially forms on the anode, thickening into a dense, over 150-μm thick crystalline layer after extended operation. This fouling layer restricts dissolution and diffusion of Fe ions into the bulk solution, thus increasing the anode potential required to maintain a desired electrical current and decreasing Faradaic efficiency. Polarity reversal applied when performance decline is observed effectively removes the fouling layer, thereby restoring Faradaic and contaminant removal efficiencies and decreasing energy consumption. Our findings suggest that gas generation at the cathode surface after polarity reversal causes removal of the fouling layer. This study enhances the current understanding of fouling-layer formation in Fe-EC and offers a practical approach, involving polarity reversal, to maintain electrode reactivity and optimal Fe-EC performance.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

O’Hare Airport Short-Term Ground Transportation Modal Demand Forecast Using Gaussian Processes

Here, the principal objective of this study is to analyze the spatial and temporal variation of ground transportation airport demand and provide demand forecast to inform planning capability and explore alternatives for investments to accommodate airport growth. Because of its good adaptability and strong generalization ability for dealing with high-dimensional input, small-sample, and nonlinear spatial data, Gaussian process (GP) regression is used to provide forecast estimates using data from transportation network company (TNC) trips and urban rail passengers at Chicago's O'Hare International Airport. TNC airport trips differ significantly, with three times more distance, more than twice the travel time, and half of the share requests compared with nonairport trips. This highlights the need for separate demand models. Hourly analysis of the rail service indicates that this is likely heavily used by airport workers, whereas TNC services focus on travelers because of variations in the peak demand hours. Heteroscedastic GP regression is implemented because of differences in trip variance between night and day hours. Estimates are given for weekdays and weekend trips, and the 95% confidence intervals are calculated. The introduction of flight schedule information into the models shows marginal improvements in their performance. However, fitting a GP regression becomes computationally expensive with increased sample size and the introduction of spatial components. Transportation planners and policymakers can use the results and methods implemented in this study to optimize transportation assets and provide long-range simulations of the current and future conditions in the area.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Radiological Source Term Estimation and Isotopic Identification with Parallel Log Domain Particle Filters

This paper presents a parallel log-domain particle filtering algorithm combined with gamma spectrum unfolding to perform localization, identification, and evaluation of multiple point sources of various isotopes in an environment with attenuating obstacles. The method uses sets of precomputed attenuation kernels that map the attenuation characteristics of the environment. These kernels are specific to the energy level of a photopeak of interest. The spectral measurements are deconvolved into count measurements of each photopeak. These count measurements are fed into a set of parallel particle filters using attenuation kernels computed for that photopeak’s energy level. The individual regularized particle filters perform all likelihood calculations in the logarithmic domain to mitigate the effects of particle degeneracy. The output of each particle filter is combined to estimate which isotopes are present as well as their positions and strengths. The performance of the algorithm is characterized in a lab-scale environment using a mobile robot equipped with a gamma ray spectrometer in the presence of up to three different radioactive isotopes simultaneously. The sources were localized to within 10 cm, and their strengths were estimated within 10% of their true values. Furthermore, the isotopes were all correctly identified, and no spurious sources were reported.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Beginner's Guide to Understanding Power System Model Results for Long-Term Resource Plans

This guide was developed to improve decision-making in the electricity planning process by strengthening dialogue between electricity system planners and stakeholders throughout the process. This document was created for anyone who is first getting exposed to scenario results from power system planning models, or for those who are beginning to interact with power system modelers. It does not assume any experience with power system modeling, or familiarity with electricity planning concepts. This guide can be helpful to a wide range of people, including but not limited to state utility commissioners and commission staff, state energy offices, and intervenors in the planning process. It is targeted to those who are evaluating or reviewing model results presented by a utility, which typically span utility-scale generation and storage (and associated transmission) assets. This guide is designed to provide enough background and guidance that stakeholders can formulate and ask questions to evaluate model results through a deeper understanding of the key assumptions, data, and methods that drive decision outcomes. The ultimate purpose of this work is to increase transparency in the electricity planning process by enabling stakeholders to better engage and evaluate model results. A follow-on guide will provide a deeper dive into emerging topics, which are expected to become more prominent in the electricity planning process, but whose methods and approaches are still being refined.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Considerations for Long-Term Load Forecasting in Morocco

There are many factors that determine how demand for electricity may change over time. These factors include GDP, population size, and technology diffusion and adoption. We employ a simple extrapolation of current trends in Morocco GDP to estimate how the peak demand and annual consumption may change through the year 2030. We discuss the many factors that this approach does not take into account (such as adoption of air conditioning, electric vehicles, and distributed generation).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Transparent and Conductive Inorganic/Polymer‐Composite Encapsulants for Long‐Term Perovskite Solar Cells Operation

An innovative inorganic/polymer-composite encapsulation scheme comprising a polymer-based transparent conductive composite (TCC) coupled with a transparent conductive oxide is introduced to extend the lifetime of moisture-sensitive devices such as perovskite solar cells (PSC). The TCC comprises conductive silver-coated polymethyl methacrylate (Ag-PMMA) microsphere fillers protruding from a transparent non-conductive polymer matrix. TCC samples (5% Ag-PMMA by area) demonstrate high optical transparencies (%T approx. 85% in the 370–1200 nm region), low out-of-plane electrical resistivities (R < 0.2 Ω cm 2 ), and equilibrium permeabilities of less than 1 g mm/m 2 /day, all of which are well-maintained after 1,000 hours of environmental exposure. In practice, the TCC is employed between two indium zinc oxide (IZO) thin films, with the in-plane conductivity of IZO and the out-of-plane conductivity of TCC working collectively to function as a single encapsulating electrode. This encapsulation scheme is exemplified by benchmarking performances of PSCs subjected to accelerated aging conditions of quasi-maximum power point tracking under light soaking in air at 50 °C, 40% R.H. to 60% R.H. Notable improvements in operational lifetimes are observed, with a champion encapsulated PSC maintaining over 90% of its initial efficiency of 21.65% for up to 1,430 hours, compare to less than 300 hours for an unencapsulated control.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Towards Long‐Term Stable Perovskite Solar Cells: Degradation Mechanisms and Stabilization Techniques

It is certain that perovskite materials must be a game‐changer in the solar industry as long as their stability reaches a level comparable with the lifetime of a commercialized Si photovoltaic. However, the operational stability of perovskite solar cells and modules still remains unresolved, especially when devices operate in practical energy‐harvesting modes represented by maximum power point tracking under 1 sun illumination at ambient conditions. This review article covers from fundamental aspects of perovskite instability including chemical decomposition pathways under light soaking and electrical bias, to recent advances and techniques that effectively prevent such degradation of perovskite solar cells and modules. In particular, fundamental causes for permanent degradation due to ion migration and trapped charges are overviewed and explain their interplay between ions and charges. Based on the degradation mechanism, recent advances on the strategies are discussed to slow down the degradation during operation for a practical use of perovskite‐based solar devices.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗