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Evaluation of the Terminal Area Precision Scheduling and Spacing System for Performance-Based Navigation Arrivals

The growth of global demand for air transportation has put increasing strain on the nation's air traffic management system. To relieve this strain, the International Civil Aviation Organization has urged all nations to adopt Performance-Based Navigation (PBN), which can help to reduce air traffic congestion, decrease aviation fuel consumption, and protect the environment. NASA has developed a Terminal Area Precision Scheduling and Spacing (TAPSS) system that can support increased use of PBN during periods of high traffic, while supporting fuel-efficient, continuous descent approaches. In the original development of this system, arrival aircraft are assigned fuel-efficient Area Navigation (RNAV) Standard Terminal Arrival Routes before their initial descent from cruise, with routing defined to a specific runway. The system also determines precise schedules for these aircraft that facilitate continuous descent through the assigned routes. To meet these schedules, controllers are given a set of advisory tools to precisely control aircraft. The TAPSS system has been evaluated in a series of human-in-the-loop (HITL) air traffic simulations during 2010 and 2011. Results indicated increased airport arrival throughput up to 10 over current operations, and maintained fuel-efficient aircraft decent profiles from the initial descent to landing with reduced controller workload. This paper focuses on results from a joint NASA and FAA HITL simulation conducted in 2012. Due to the FAA rollout of the advance terminal area PBN procedures at mid-sized airports first, the TAPSS system was modified to manage arrival aircraft as they entered Terminal Radar Approach Control (TRACON). Dallas-Love Field airport (DAL) was selected by the FAA as a representative mid-sized airport within a constrained TRACON airspace due to the close proximity of a major airport, in this case Dallas-Ft Worth International Airport, one of the busiest in the world. To address this constraint, RNAV routes and Required Navigation Performance with the particular capability known as Radius-to-Fix (RNP-RF) approaches to a short final were used. The purpose of this simulation was to get feedback on how current operations could benefit with the TAPSS system and also to evaluate the efficacy of the advisory tools to support the broader use of PBN in the US National Airspace System. For this NASA-FAA joint experiment, an Air Traffic Control laboratory at NASA Ames was arranged to simulate arrivals into DAL in Instrument Meteorological Conditions utilizing parallel dependent approaches, with two feeder positions that handed off traffic to one final position. Four FAA controllers participated, alternately covering these three positions. All participants were Full-Performance Level terminal controllers and members of the National Air Traffic Controllers Association. During the simulation, PBN arrival operations were compared and contrasted in three conditions. They were the Baseline, where none of the TAPSS systems TRACON controller decision support advisories were provided, the Limited Advisories, reflecting the existing but dormant capabilities of the current terminal automation equipment with providing a subset of the TAPSS systems advisories; numerical delay, landing sequence, and runway assignment information, and the Full Advisories, with providing the following in addition to the ones in the Limited condition; trajectory slot markers, timelines of estimated times of arrivals and sched

Performance based navigation↗

Data for Yield from Iowa’s first commercial miscanthus fields: implications of spatial variability for productivity and sustainability beyond research plots

This dataset contains biomass yield measurements and associated vegetation index data collected from commercial Miscanthus × giganteus fields in eastern Iowa during the 2022–2023 growing seasons. The data support the analyses presented in the article: “Yield From Iowa's First Commercial Miscanthus Fields: Implications of Spatial Variability for Productivity and Sustainability Beyond Research Plots.” We collected 105 ground-truth biomass samples from four mature commercial fields (>4 years old) covering 92.81 ha. Samples were taken from 3 m² quadrats that were hand-harvested in alignment with commercial harvest timing. Stem biomass (excluding leaves) was weighed, moisture-corrected, and converted to dry-matter yield expressed in Mg DM ha⁻¹. Sampling locations were selected to capture spatial variability visible in aerial imagery and were recorded using RTK GPS. Each biomass observation was paired with vegetation indices derived from high-resolution PlanetScope satellite imagery (3 m resolution). Images were acquired throughout the growing season, and indices were calculated to evaluate their ability to predict end-of-season biomass yield. Statistical and machine learning approaches were used to identify key predictors, and a linear regression model based on end-of-July Green Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (GNDVI) was developed and evaluated. This repository includes the data used in that modeling workflow. Management practices, economic data, full imagery time series, and additional methodological details are described in the associated publication and are not included here. The dataset consists of three comma-separated value (CSV) files: 1. Combine_Groundtruth_Yield_VI_22_23.csv This file contains ground-truth biomass yield measurements and associated key vegetation index values collected during the 2022 and 2023 growing seasons. Rows: 105 observations Columns: Year — Year of observation (2022 or 2023) Field — Field location identifier Sample_number — Unique sample identifier GNDVI_End_Jul — Green Normalized Difference Vegetation Index calculated at end of July GNDVI_End_Aug — Green Normalized Difference Vegetation Index calculated at end of August NDRE_End_Aug — Normalized Difference Red Edge index calculated at end of August Biomass_Stem_Yield_MgDM/ha — Measured stem biomass yield (megagrams dry matter per hectare) 2. trainData_GNDVI.csv This file contains the subset of observations used to train the predictive relationship between July GNDVI and biomass yield. Rows: 76 observations Columns: Unnamed: 0 — Row index retained from the original data processing workflow GNDVI_End_Jul — GNDVI at end of July Stem_Yield_MgDM/ha — Observed stem biomass yield (Mg DM ha⁻¹) 3. testData_GNDVI.csv This file contains the test dataset used to evaluate model performance. Rows: 29 observations Columns: Unnamed: 0 — Row index retained from the original data processing workflow GNDVI_End_Jul — GNDVI at end of July Predicted_Yield_MgDM/ha — Model-predicted stem biomass yield (Mg DM ha⁻¹) Observed_Yield_MgDM/ha — Measured stem biomass yield (Mg DM ha⁻¹)

Potential yield, yield gap, in-field management, y↗

Fast Query-Optimized Kernel-Machine Classification

A recently developed algorithm performs kernel-machine classification via incremental approximate nearest support vectors. The algorithm implements support-vector machines (SVMs) at speeds 10 to 100 times those attainable by use of conventional SVM algorithms. The algorithm offers potential benefits for classification of images, recognition of speech, recognition of handwriting, and diverse other applications in which there are requirements to discern patterns in large sets of data. SVMs constitute a subset of kernel machines (KMs), which have become popular as models for machine learning and, more specifically, for automated classification of input data on the basis of labeled training data. While similar in many ways to k-nearest-neighbors (k-NN) models and artificial neural networks (ANNs), SVMs tend to be more accurate. Using representations that scale only linearly in the numbers of training examples, while exploring nonlinear (kernelized) feature spaces that are exponentially larger than the original input dimensionality, KMs elegantly and practically overcome the classic curse of dimensionality. However, the price that one must pay for the power of KMs is that query-time complexity scales linearly with the number of training examples, making KMs often orders of magnitude more computationally expensive than are ANNs, decision trees, and other popular machine learning alternatives. The present algorithm treats an SVM classifier as a special form of a k-NN. The algorithm is based partly on an empirical observation that one can often achieve the same classification as that of an exact KM by using only small fraction of the nearest support vectors (SVs) of a query. The exact KM output is a weighted sum over the kernel values between the query and the SVs. In this algorithm, the KM output is approximated with a k-NN classifier, the output of which is a weighted sum only over the kernel values involving k selected SVs. Before query time, there are gathered statistics about how misleading the output of the k-NN model can be, relative to the outputs of the exact KM for a representative set of examples, for each possible k from 1 to the total number of SVs. From these statistics, there are derived upper and lower thresholds for each step k. These thresholds identify output levels for which the particular variant of the k-NN model already leans so strongly positively or negatively that a reversal in sign is unlikely, given the weaker SV neighbors still remaining. At query time, the partial output of each query is incrementally updated, stopping as soon as it exceeds the predetermined statistical thresholds of the current step. For an easy query, stopping can occur as early as step k = 1. For more difficult queries, stopping might not occur until nearly all SVs are touched. A key empirical observation is that this approach can tolerate very approximate nearest-neighbor orderings. In experiments, SVs and queries were projected to a subspace comprising the top few principal- component dimensions and neighbor orderings were computed in that subspace. This approach ensured that the overhead of the nearest-neighbor computations was insignificant, relative to that of the exact KM computation.

Mazzoni, Dominic↗

The AAMP5/AAMP-FV project

This presentation describes a project, formal verification of the microcode in the AAMP5 microprocessor, conducted to explore how formal techniques for specification and verification could be introduced into an industrial process. Sponsored by the Systems Validation Branch of NASA Langley and by Collins Commercial Avionics, a division of Rockwell International, it was conducted by Collins and the SRI International Computer Science Laboratory. The project consisted of specifying in the PVS language developed by SRI a portion of a Rockwell proprietary microprocessor, the AAMP5, at both the instruction set and register-transfer levels and using the PVS theorem prover to prove the microcode correct for a representative subset of instructions. While this presentation includes a brief technical overview, its emphasis is on the lessons learned in using PVS for an example of this size and the implications for using formal methods in an industrial setting. The central result of this project was to demonstrate the feasibility of formally specifying a commercial microprocessor and the use of mechanical proofs of correctness to verify microcode. This is particularly significant since the AAMP5 was not designed for formal verification, but to provide a more than three fold performance improvement, by pipelining instruction execution, while remaining object code compatible with the earlier AAMP2. As a consequence, the AAMP5 is one of the most complex microprocessors to which formal methods have been applied. Another key result was the discovery of both actual and seeded errors. Two actual microcode errors were discovered and corrected during development of the formal specification, illustrating the value of simply creating a precise specification. Two seeded errors were systematically uncovered while doing correctness proofs. One of these was an actual error that had been discovered after first fabrication but left in the microcode provided to SRI. The other error was designed to be unlikely to be detected by walkthroughs, testing, or simulation. Several other results emerged during the project, including the ease with which practicing engineers became comfortable with PVS, the need for libraries of general purpose theories, the usefulness of formal specification in revealing errors, the natural fit between formal specification and inspections, the difficulty of selecting the best style of specification for a new problem domain, the high level of assurance provided by proofs of correctness, and the need to engineer proof strategies for reuse.

Miller, Steven P.↗

The Functional Breakdown Structure (FBS) and Its Relationship to Life Cycle Cost

The Functional Breakdown Structure (FBS) is a structured, modular breakdown of every function that must be addressed to perform a generic mission. It is also usable for any subset of the mission. Unlike a Work Breakdown Structure (WBS), the FBS is a function-oriented tree, not a product-oriented tree. The FBS details not products, but operations or activities that should be performed. The FBS is not tied to any particular architectural implementation because it is a listing of the needed functions, not the elements, of the architecture. The FBS for Space Transportation Systems provides a universal hierarchy of required functions, which include ground and space operations as well as infrastructure - it provides total visibility of the entire mission. By approaching the systems engineering problem from the functional view, instead of the element or hardware view, the SPST has created an exhaustive list of potential requirements which the architecture designers can use to evaluate the completeness of their designs. This is a new approach that will provide full accountability of all functions required to perform the planned mission. It serves as a giant check list to be sure that no functions are omitted, especially in the early architectural design phase. A significant characteristic of a FBS is that if architecture options are compared using this approach, then any missing or redundant elements of each option will be ' identified. Consequently, valid Life Cycle Costs (LCC) comparisons can be made. For example, one architecture option might not need a particular function while another option does. One option may have individual elements to perform each of three functions while another option needs only one element to perform the three functions. Once an architecture has been selected, the FBS will serve as a guide in development of the work breakdown structure, provide visibility of those technologies that need to be further developed to perform required functions, and help identify the personnel skills required to develop and operate the architecture. It also wifi allow the systems engineering activities to totally integrate each discipline to the maximum extent possible and optimize at the total system level, thus avoiding optimizing at the element level (stove-piping). In addition, it furnishes a framework that wifi help prevent over or under specifying requirements because all functions are identified and all elements are aligned to functions.

DeHoff, Bryan↗

Structural analysis of the catalytic domain of Artemis endonuclease/SNM1C reveals distinct structural features

The endonuclease Artemis is responsible for opening DNA hairpins during V(D)J recombination and for processing a subset of pathological DNA double-strand breaks. Artemis is an attractive target for the development of therapeutics to manage various B cell and T cell tumors, because failure to open DNA hairpins and accumulation of chromosomal breaks may reduce the proliferation and viability of pre-T and pre-B cell derivatives. However, structure-based drug discovery of specific Artemis inhibitors has been hampered by a lack of crystal structures. Here, we report the structure of the catalytic domain of recombinant human Artemis. The catalytic domain displayed a polypeptide fold similar overall to those of other members in the DNA cross-link repair gene SNM1 family and in mRNA 3'-end-processing endonuclease CPSF-73, containing metallo-β-lactamase and β-CASP domains and a cluster of conserved histidine and aspartate residues capable of binding two metal atoms in the catalytic site. As in SNM1A, only one zinc ion was located in the Artemis active site. However, Artemis displayed several unique features. Unlike in other members of this enzyme class, a second zinc ion was present in the β-CASP domain that leads to structural reorientation of the putative DNA-binding surface and extends the substrate-binding pocket to a new pocket, pocket III. Moreover, the substrate-binding surface exhibited a dominant and extensive positive charge distribution compared with that in the structures of SNM1A and SNM1B, presumably because of the structurally distinct DNA substrate of Artemis. The structural features identified here may provide opportunities for designing selective Artemis inhibitors.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Performance Evaluation of Intelligent Solar Control Software Through Hardware-in-the-Loop (CRADA Final Report)

Recent research has highlighted the potential for solar to act as a zero-marginal-cost and zero-emission flexibility resource on the bulk power system when operated with advanced control systems. To increase the performance of these systems, leading technologies, including machine learning (ML) and hierarchical inverter set point allocation, have been developed by Latimer Controls, Inc. to estimate the headroom of large PV plants for grid operation and control; however, these technologies lack comprehensive validation under real-world application scenarios. Latimer Controls, Inc. received two voucher awards for research at a national laboratory from the Department of Energy American Made Solar Prize Round 6. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) was selected to collaborate with Latimer staff to conduct a performance evaluation of Latimer PV control software. The NREL team will develop a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testbed to perform testing and validation of the Latimer PV control technology in a de-risked yet realistic testbed environment. Latimer and NREL worked together to analyze the test data, draw conclusions from the results, and disseminate the resulting scientific findings. In this CRADA work, we propose to test and validate the real-world application of the Latimer Control solution in an HIL environment. We evaluate the performance of different flexible solar technologies in responding to automatic generation control signals in a closed-loop fashion. In particular, a data-driven potential high limit (PHL) estimation is developed for large solar plants to accurately estimate their headroom so that they have fast and short-time regulation and control capability to participate in grid services and respond to grid signals in real time (e.g., AGC). This PHL estimation algorithm is embedded in a hardware power plant controller (PPC) and tested with an IEEE-39 bus system model developed in RTDS. To account for the varying cloud conditions and diverse inverter dispatches, we developed a 135-MW PV plant with detailed modeling of 27 individual PV modules and inverters using RTDS. The real-world communications used in such big plants, such as ModBus TCP/IP for inverter level and DNP3 for plant level, were developed to emulate the real-world applications in big PV plants. The ML-based PHL estimation method is tested under nine separate weather scenarios against the ‘reference-control’ solution, hereafter referred to as the baseline solution. The baseline method reserves a subset of inverters (reference group) to operate at their PHL at all times and dispatches only the remaining inverters (control group) at curtailed levels to fulfill the flexibility need. Despite being successfully piloted by NREL in California in 2017 and Chile in 2020, there exist two gaps in the state of the art to fully unlock the flexibility of PV plants: a. There is a trade-off between the PHL estimation accuracy and the flexibility range. b. There lacks granularity in the PHL estimation to capture the variation across inverters. The Latimer solution seeks to address these gaps by applying machine learning methods to improve PHL estimation accuracy while accounting for variability at every inverter. Performance metrics were taken from the 2023 Georgia Power CARES utility-scale RFP. The results demonstrate that the ML-based approach outperforms the traditional baseline method in PHL estimation accuracy for 7 of 9 scenarios. The average PHL error across the nine scenarios was 7.40% for the ML-based method, 2.06% less than the 9.46% PHL error average across scenarios that was exhibited by the baseline method. Additionally, the PHL error was below 5% for at least 95% of the testing interval for 3 of 9 tested intervals with the ML approach, whereas it did not achieve this metric for any of the baseline tests. Overall, simulation results indicate the superior performance of an ML-based approach compared to the conventional baseline reference-control approach, showcasing its potential to support grid stability and operational efficiency. This laboratory HIL testing using real PPC, representative power system simulation models in real-time with detailed PV plant and inverter models, and real-world communication protocols gives us confidence that this machine learning based PHL estimation algorithm works well in the hardware PPC and therefore de-risks future field commissioning. The end goal of this project is to advance grid technology to address the grid operation challenges brought by solar plant’s variability and uncertainties in power generation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Simultaneous Retrieval of Selected Optical Water Quality Indicators From Landsat-8, Sentinel-2, and Sentinel-3

Constructing multi-source satellite-derived water quality (WQ) products in inland and nearshore coastal waters from the past, present, and future missions is a long-standing challenge. Despite inherent differences in sensors’ spectral capability, spatial sampling, and radiometric performance, research efforts focused on formulating, implementing, and validating universal WQ algorithms continue to evolve. This research extends a recently developed machine-learning (ML) model, i.e., Mixture Density Networks (MDNs) (Pahlevan et al., 2020; Smith et al., 2021), to the inverse problem of simultaneously retrieving WQ indicators, including chlorophyll-a (Chla), Total Suspended Solids (TSS), and the absorption by Colored Dissolved Organic Matter at 440 nm (a cdom (440)), across a wide array of aquatic ecosystems. We use a database of in situ measurements to train and optimize MDN models developed for the relevant spectral measurements (400–800 nm) of the Operational Land Imager (OLI), MultiSpectral Instrument (MSI), and Ocean and Land Color Instrument (OLCI) aboard the Landsat-8, Sentinel-2, and Sentinel-3 missions, respectively. Our two performance assessment approaches, namely hold-out and leave-one-out, suggest significant, albeit varying degrees of improvements with respect to second-best algorithms, depending on the sensor and WQ indicator (e.g., 68%, 75%, 117% improvements based on the hold-out method for Chla, TSS, and a cdom (440), respectively from MSI-like spectra). Using these two assessment methods, we provide theoretical upper and lower bounds on model performance when evaluating similar and/or out-of-sample datasets. To evaluate multi-mission product consistency across broad spatial scales, map products are demonstrated for three near-concurrent OLI, MSI, and OLCI acquisitions. Overall, estimated TSS and a cdom (440) from these three missions are consistent within the uncertainty of the model, but Chla maps from MSI and OLCI achieve greater accuracy than those from OLI. By applying two different atmospheric correction processors to OLI and MSI images, we also conduct matchup analyses to quantify the sensitivity of the MDN model and best-practice algorithms to uncertainties in reflectance products. Our model is less or equally sensitive to these uncertainties compared to other algorithms. Recognizing their uncertainties, MDN models can be applied as a global algorithm to enable harmonized retrievals of Chla, TSS, and a cdom (440) in various aquatic ecosystems from multi-source satellite imagery. Local and/or regional ML models tuned with an apt data distribution (e.g., a subset of our dataset) should nevertheless be expected to outperform our global model.

Machine learning↗

The galactic globular cluster system

We explore correlations between various properties of Galactic globular clusters, using a database on 143 objects. Our goal is identify correlations and trends which can be used to test and constrain theoretical models of cluster formation and evolution. We use a set of 13 cluster parameters, 9 of which are independently measured. Several arguments suggest that the number of clusters still missing in the obscured regions of the Galaxy is of the order of 10, and thus the selection effects are probably not severe for our sample. Known clusters follow a power-law density distribution with a slope approximately -3.5 to -4, and an apparent core with a core radius approximately 1 kpc. Clusters show a large dynamical range in many of their properties, more so for the core parameters (which are presumably more affected by dynamical evolution) than for the half-light parameters. There are no good correlations with luminosity, although more luminous clusters tend to be more concentrated. When data are binned in luminosity, several trends emerge: more luminous clusters tend to have smaller and denser cores. We interpret this as a differential survival effect, with more massive clusters surviving longer and reaching more evolved dynamical states. Cluster core parameters and concentrations also correlate with the position in the Galaxy, with clusters closer to the Galactic center or plane being more concentrated and having smaller and denser cores. These trends are more pronounced for the fainter (less massive) clusters. This is in agreement with a picture where tidal shocks form disk or bulge passages accelerate dynamical evolution of clusters. Cluster metallicities do not correlate with any other parameter, including luminosity and velocity dispersion; the only detectable trend is with the position in the Galaxy, probably reflecting Zinn's disk-halo dichotomy. This suggests that globular clusters were not self-enriched systems. Velocity dispersions show excellent correlations with luminosity and surface brightness. Their origin is not well understood, but they may well reflect initial conditions of cluster formation, and perhaps even be used to probe the initial density perturbation spectrum on a approximately 10(exp 6) solar mass scale. Core radii and concentrations play a role of a 'second parameter' in these correlations. While a global manifold of cluster properties has a high statistical dimensionality (D greater than 4), a subset of structural, photometric, and dynamical parameters forms a statistically three-dimensional family, as expected from objects following King models; we propose to call this set of quantities the King Manifold. Some of the observed correlations may be usable as distance indicator relations for globular clusters.

Djorgovski, S.↗

NASA’s Moon Trek Portal: New Capabilities Supporting Mission Planning and Engagement

Introduction: NASA’s Moon Trek (https://trek.nasa.gov/moon/) is one of a growing number of interactive, browser-based, online portals for planetary data visualization and analysis produced by NASA’s Solar System Treks Project (SSTP). Moon Trek continues to be enhanced with new data and new capabilities enabling it to facilitate the planning and conducting of upcoming lunar missions by NASA, its commercial partners, and its international partners, as well as advancing its role as a valuable outreach tool. A Comprehensive Online Web Portal: Developed at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and managed as a project of NASA’s Solar System Exploration Research Virtual Institute (SSERVI) at NASA Ames Research Center, Moon Trek is a browser-based web portal. The portal provides easy-to-use tools for browsing, data layering, data product blending, and feature search among thousands of data products covering topography, mineralogy, elemental abundance, geology, and much more. Visualizations are provided in var-ious map projections, interactive 3D viewing, and in virtual reality. Using an in-house stereo workflow, SSTP is able to produce new NAC-based high-resolution mosaics and DEMs. Diverse Applications for Lunar Exploration: Baseline analytic tools available to all users include dis-tance measurement, elevation profiling, sun angle calculation, and 3D print file generation. More advanced account-level tools allow users to perform more computationally intensive analyses. These include ray-traced lighting analysis for user-specified areas over user-specified time/date ranges and time intervals, electro-static surface potential analysis, subsetting of large data products, slope analysis, and Lunar Laser Ranging geometry calculation. Artificial intelligence (AI) and ma-chine learning (ML) based tools have been implemented for crater detection and hazard analysis, boulder detection and hazard analysis, and rockfall detection. New Tools Facilitating Exploration: Additional, new tools have recently been added and others are in development, offering even greater functionality in con-ducting analyses of potential landing sites and areas of surface operations. The new Line-of-Sight tool facilitates communications planning between locations on the lunar surface, between any given site on the lunar surface and a specified ground station on the Earth, and between a site on the lunar surface and a relay asset in lunar orbit, all taking into account local lunar topography. The new Data Plotter tool provides both tabular and graphical representations of pixel values along a user specified path for a growing number of data products. The new NAC Finder tool will identify and pro-vide access to NAC images that intersect a user-defined path or bounded area. The SSTP development team is looking to leverage the capabilities of its existing AI and ML crater, boulder, and rockfall detection and analysis tools, and extend that technology to a generalized feature detector that can be trained on instances of specific types of landforms and then search the lunar surface for more examples of such features. New traverse planning tools are being developed with use cases in generalized concept studies and specific mission planning in mind. These will facilitate finding optimal traverse paths based on constraints such as slope, lighting, hazard avoidance, and communications. These will be complemented by new traverse visualization capabilities. Users will be able to interactively ride along with a rover, examining 3D views of the terrain while adjusting camera height and viewing angle along with selecting different data layer overlays to drape across the terrain. Engaging the Public: The capabilities being developed for mission planning are being leveraged to further enhance Moon Trek’s proven utility as a valuable public outreach resource. This includes providing multiple lev-els of engagement with different points of entry. At its simplest level, promoting understanding through visualization, media and the public will be able to easily visualize and conduct their own exploration of lunar sites targeted by NASA and its partners. For a more in-depth experience, we are working with our stakeholders to promote understanding through interaction by extend-ing our current landing site and traverse analysis capabilities, making simplified access to these tools available to those who want to explore more deeply key factors in planning a mission through interactive and possibly even gamified experiences. The highest degree of public outreach, focusing on engagement through scientific participation, could be achieved through our work with missions and the NASA Office of the Chief Scientist on Moon Trek’s extension as a tool with specialized capabilities for facilitating citizen science. In such scenarios, participants become members of extended mis-sion science teams, using dedicated and integrated interfaces to analyze mission data to help answer questions key to lunar science and exploration. We are work-ing with NASA’s Office of Communications, museums, planetariums, and the media to help them easily integrate accurate, detailed visualizations of NASA’s lunar destinations and exploration into their content/productions and to engage diverse audiences in diverse venues.

Moon Trek↗

Land and Atmosphere Near-Real-Time Capability for Earth Observing System

The past decade has seen a rapid increase in availability and usage of near-real-time data from satellite sensors. The EOSDIS (Earth Observing System Data and Information System) was not originally designed to provide data with sufficiently low latency to satisfy the requirements for near-real-time users. The EOS (Earth Observing System) instruments aboard the Terra, Aqua and Aura satellites make global measurements daily, which are processed into higher-level 'standard' products within 8-40 hours of observation and then made available to users, primarily earth science researchers. However, applications users, operational agencies, and even researchers desire EOS products in near-real-time to support research and applications, including numerical weather and climate prediction and forecasting, monitoring of natural hazards, ecological/invasive species, agriculture, air quality, disaster relief and homeland security. These users often need data much sooner than routine science processing allows, usually within 3 hours, and are willing to trade science product quality for timely access. While Direct Broadcast provides more timely access to data, it does not provide global coverage. In 2002, a joint initiative between NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration), NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), and the DOD (Department of Defense) was undertaken to provide data from EOS instruments in near-real-time. The NRTPE (Near Real Time Processing Effort) provided products within 3 hours of observation on a best-effort basis. As the popularity of these near-real-time products and applications grew, multiple near-real-time systems began to spring up such as the Rapid Response System. In recognizing the dependence of customers on this data and the need for highly reliable and timely data access, NASA's Earth Science Division sponsored the Earth Science Data and Information System Project (ESDIS)-led development of a new near-real-time system called LANCE (Land, Atmosphere Near-Real-Time Capability for EOS) in 2009. LANCE consists of special processing elements, co-located with selected EOSDIS data centers and processing facilities. A primary goal of LANCE is to bring multiple near-real-time systems under one umbrella, offering commonality in data access, quality control, and latency. LANCE now processes and distributes data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer Earth Observing System (AMSR-E), Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) instruments within 3 hours of satellite observation. The Rapid Response System and the Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) capabilities will be incorporated into LANCE in 2011. LANCE maintains a central website to facilitate easy access to data and user services. LANCE products are extensively tested and compared with science products before being made available to users. Each element also plans to implement redundant network, power and server infrastructure to ensure high availability of data and services. Through the user registration system, users are informed of any data outages and when new products or services will be available for access. Building on a significant investment by NASA in developing science algorithms and products, LANCE creates products that have a demonstrated utility for applications requiring near-real-time data. From lower level data products such as calibrated geolocated radiances to higher-level products such as sea ice extent, snow cover, and cloud cover, users have integrated LANCE data into forecast models and decision support systems. The table above shows the current near-real-time product categories by instrument. The ESDIS Project continues to improve the LANCE system and use the experience gained through practice to seek adjustments to improve the quality and performance of the system. For example, anGC-compliant Web Map Service (WMS) will be added shortly that will allow users to download geo-referenced MODIS images for arbitrary bounding boxes. Further, an OGC-compliant Web Coverage Service (WCS) will be added later this year that will expedite user access to arbitrary data subsets or re-formatted products. AIRS images are now served through WMS and available in multiple formats (PNG, GeoTIFF, KMZ). NASA has established a LANCE User Working Group to steer the development of the system and create a forum for sharing ideas and experiences that are expected to further improve the LANCE capabilities. The LANCE system has proved a success by satisfying the growing needs of the applications and operational communities for land and atmosphere data in near-real-time. NASA's Earth Sciences Division was able to leverage existing science research capabilities to provide the near-real-time community with products and imagery that support monitoring of disasters in a timely manner.

Murphy, Kevin J.↗

Use of Design of Experiments and Rule-Based Inference in Determining Neural Network Architectures for Loss of Control Detection

In this work, we describe methods for selecting the neural network architectures and input spaces to implement belief state inference on generic commercial transport aircraft. First, we highlight a case study on the planning, execution, and analysis of a set of experiments to determine the configurations of a conditional variational autoencoder (CVAE). We present a structured method that can be used in a number of aerospace applications, to optimize the structure and training parameters of the CVAE for belief state inference, using Design of Experiments (DOE) statistical methodologies. The motivation for this specific DOE was to identify the appropriate hyperparameters for measuring the CVAE reconstruction probability and latent space, such that the measurements can be used to infer qualitative state changes for the aircraft. We demonstrate that this process yields information about a trained neural network’s utility for this specific application, along with a quantifiable range of certainty. We execute 84 experiments using loss-of-control flight maneuver data from a NASA T-2 aircraft, demonstrating that this empirical process allows us to construct cheap and simple models with specific attributes amenable to belief state inference in aerospace applications. While theoretically, we could create a single CVAE with an input space the size of all measurable flight variables and environmental dynamics, it becomes intractable to use such a neural network in an in-situ intelligent multi-agent system. Using the recommendations from our case study, we introduce a technical approach for feasibly describing the belief space by (1) identifying significant statistical relationships among flight variables using rule induction, (2) using a set of rules that cover all features to define the input space of multiple CVAEs, and (3) forming a belief space based on the joint probability density of their collective latent spaces. This results in a series of relatively small matrix multiplications that can be performed in real time, as opposed to large matrix computations in a single CVAE. We demonstrate the application of this approach on the T-2 flight loss-of control experiments, using the architecture and hyperparameter recommendations from the case study. We compare the utilities of an individual CVAE trained on all flight variables and multiple CVAEs defined on subsets of flight variables for detecting qualitative changes in flight. We demonstrate that the use of multiple CVAEs with smaller input spaces permits the CVAE to capture more granular relationships in the latent space, permitting better state space characterization and loss-of-control detection.

Design of experiments↗

Lunar Terrain Vehicle (LTV) Remote Teleoperation Studies Under Four Lunar Communication Latencies

Remotely operating a lunar rover from Earth while subject to an Earth-Moon time delay of multiple seconds could result in a dangerous state where the roving vehicle is either damaged or lost, thereby potentially compromising an entire mission or series of missions. Providing the right capabilities to the remote operator to manage inherent communication latencies will be important for remote driving to be successful. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) conducted two studies to investigate the average speed and number of kilometers per day that an operator on Earth could teleoperate a notional Artemis unpressurized rover with minimal remote operator capabilities under 0- and 4-second communication delays (April 2023 study) and 6- and 8-second delays (August 2023 study). A primary goal of these studies was to understand if an Artemis Lunar Terrain Vehicle (LTV) could cover 6 kilometers (km) in 24 hours when operated remotely. During the April 2023 evaluation, eight test operators used an in-house simulation of the lunar surface South Pole to teleoperate a NASA government reference LTV. Each operator received approximately 30 minutes of remote driving familiarization/training prior to their test run. Operators viewed the surrounding terrain via a single, rover mast-mounted, high-resolution camera with pan/tilt/zoom capabilities; continuous communication was provided throughout all testing. In the August 2023 evaluation, remote operators received approximately 3 hours of familiarization training in each latency, and the simulation environment provided remote operators with an operator-selected rate limiter to enable finer sensitivity in the hand controller and a predictive circle function to better assist operators with predicting the path the vehicle could take. All test operators were able to successfully navigate and drive through six different types of terrain and five planned traverse scenarios using natural lighting under all communication delays. Results for average speeds for each communication delay, computed by averaging the data from all test conditions for that latency and all operators, are shown in the table below. The average speed data was then used to derive the total time needed to cover 6 km, 8 km, and 20 km. Remote operators drove slower and used the brake more frequently when subject to a communication latency as opposed to no communication latency. Subjective workload assessments revealed that while operating in a latency the overall workload significantly increased when compared to a 0-s delay with mental demand, frustration, and performance being the primary contributing factors. Driving strategies in the 0-s delay did not vary significantly among subjects; however, in the 4-s delay condition, three different driving strategies were identified. In the 6-s and 8-s latency conditions the operator’s use of the cruise control to maintain speed was more apparent. Additionally, over the course of the August study, the operator took advantage of the predictive circle indicator on the navigation display and over 95% of the operator’s navigation used the mast camera 180-degree panning function for ground truthing in terms of boulders and craters. Operators started to define more specific parameters in driving strategies for general operations. This consisted of setting the vehicle into a low-speed cruise mode of approximately 1–1.5 kph and noticing driving performance of the vehicle seemed to be much harder at slower speeds 0.4–0.8 kph; however, the vehicle was more responsive at speeds of 2.9–3.6 kph. Regardless of communication delay, operators used both the horizontal translation rails and the vehicle fenders as guides to predict a path for the vehicle through heavily concentrated terrain features. Test operators acknowledged that the teleoperations training for this study was substantially less than what an actual LTV remote operator will ultimately receive. They estimated a minimum of 20 to 100 hours spread across multiple days and weeks (e.g., strategies included immersion training over a 3-day period, to a short 8-week starter program) would be needed to get an operator ~ 60% proficient (i.e., able to complete a subset of remote driving tasks), to a yearlong program for full proficiency in remote driving tasks under all terrain types and natural lighting conditions. Remotely operating a vehicle on another planetary body while subject to communication latency is a complex task. Speed, distance covered, time spent driving, time spent navigating, brake usage and rock contacts are all affected by operator workload, driving strategies, workstation ergonomics and training. These studies provided a “firstlook” answer to a potential system requirement (namely if a remote operator could cover a given distance in a given amount of time); however, considerable general knowledge was gained to begin to understand what it will take to make a successful lunar rover teleoperator.

LTV↗

Improving Efficacy and Safety of Pharmacological Treatment Through Precision Health and Pharmacogenomics

INTRODUCTION: Future spaceflight will require increased crew medical autonomy as exploration class missions expand in duration and distance from Earth, especially for Mars missions. As mission duration increases, it will be essential to have appropriate amounts of effective medication to ensure the maintenance of crew health and performance. Conversely, mass and volume constraints will become more severe as future spaceflight expands beyond low Earth orbit, where resupply is difficult or becomes impossible. These constraints thus convey an urgency to tailor medications for individual crewmembers and further examine appropriate dosing regimens. BACKGROUND: Precision Health is an exciting area of medicine focused on maintaining an individual’s health and performance through in-depth understanding of an individual’s unique clinical and environmental history, genetic makeup, and molecular profiles. This approach can be adapted to better predict, monitor, and address physiological responses to the spaceflight environment. A subset of this field is pharmacogenomics (PGX), the study of how the expressed genome impacts drug responses with the goal of prescribing the right dose of the right drug at the right time. Specifically, PGX testing provides valuable information on an individual’s precise allelic variations to guide physicians in making informed decisions on drug choice and dosing to avoid adverse events and maximize efficacy. The study goal was to identify which current space pharmacy drugs could be evaluated using PGX testing and to understand the potential impact on the health and wellness of the astronaut population. Additionally, we sought to evaluate clinically available FDA-approved PGX testing solutions to better understand its applicability. METHODS: A complete list of drugs on the ISS was analyzed for risk and likelihood of drug failure and PGX actionability. This analysis encompassed both astronauts’ personal medications, including supplements and over the counter drugs (n=151) contained in the ISS medical accessory kit (IMAK), and ISS MedKit formulary medications (n=95). Duplicate medications and different formulations were removed, which resulted in a total of 157 drugs used in the subsequent analysis. A 5x5 risk assessment table was produced by examining the likelihood of drug failure compared to the consequence of drug failure (LxC). Likelihood of individual drug failure was defined by whether existing processes are sufficient to prevent ineffective treatment or impactful side effect events, as ranked from 1 (very low, can easily be prevented) to 5 (very high, cannot be prevented) during a Mars mission. In contrast, the consequence of drug failure was defined by impact to safety, schedule, cost, or technical criteria and ranked from 1 (very low) to 5 (very high). An assessment of PGX reference laboratories is currently underway to evaluate sample requirements, benefit analysis (cost vs. utility of allele variant analysis), relevance to inflight medication usage, quality of reporting in enabling clinical application, and ease of integration into electronic medical records. RESULTS: Risk assessments (LxC 5x5 table) indicated 128 medications were in the green zone where risk is acceptable, with the remaining 29 of the medications in the yellow or red zone driven predominantly due to drug failure or safety concerns. We found that current PGX testing results could impact 21% of the total medications in the ISS MedKit and IMAK; of these, 9 medications currently have direct clinically actionable guidance available. Results of the clinical PGX solution evaluations as related to these medications will be presented. CONCLUSION: PGX testing has demonstrated clear benefits in terrestrial medicine and clinical environments for the selection of proper medications, avoiding adverse drug reactions, and maximizing drug efficacy. We propose that similar benefits would be bestowed on the astronaut and commercial spaceflight passenger population by performing preemptive preflight PGX testing to reduce risk of mission failure due to ineffective or toxic medications, improve drug efficacy, and further open the door to countermeasure research. For example, PGX results could allow tailoring of specific medications at optimal doses more precisely to each individual astronaut, particularly in areas of space motion sickness, sleep aids, and analgesics. An additional benefit is that PGX results could provide information for better planning of the components of a space pharmacy for deep space missions to be more effective and efficient in the utilization of limited pharmaceutical resources. Finally, while PGX testing of the astronaut corps is not currently conducted, this approach could provide immediate impact in support of mission success by reducing risks, optimizing astronaut performance, and providing valuable insights into long-term astronaut health. Such advancements in clinical decision making are important next steps in building dynamic individual risk profiles for astronauts, increasing selection of the best treatment choice, and providing tailored countermeasures for individual crewmembers.

Pharmacogenomics↗

Lunar Terrain Vehicle (LTV) Remote Teleoperation Studies Under Four Lunar Communication Latencies

Remotely operating a lunar rover from Earth while subject to an Earth-Moon time delay of multiple seconds could result in a dangerous state where the roving vehicle is either damaged or lost, thereby potentially compromising an entire mission or series of missions. Providing the right capabilities to the remote operator to manage inherent communication latencies will be important for remote driving to be successful. NASA conducted two studies to investigate the average speed and number of kilometers per day that an operator on Earth could teleoperate a notional Artemis unpressurized rover with minimal remote operator capabilities under 0- and 4-second communication delays (April 2023 study) and 6- and 8-second delays (August 2023 study). A primary goal of these studies was to understand if an Artemis Lunar Terrain Vehicle (LTV) could cover 6 kilometers (km) in 24 hours when operated remotely. During the April 2023 evaluation, eight test operators used an in-house simulation of the lunar surface South Pole to teleoperate a NASA government reference LTV. Each operator received approximately 30 minutes of remote driving familiarization/training prior to their test run. Operators viewed the surrounding terrain via a single, rover mast-mounted, high-resolution camera with pan/tilt/zoom capabilities; continuous communication was provided throughout all testing. In the August 2023 evaluation, remote operators received approximately 3 hours of familiarization training in each latency, and the simulation environment provided remote operators with an operator-selected rate limiter to enable finer sensitivity in the hand controller and a predictive circle function to better assist operators with predicting the path the vehicle could take. All test operators were able to successfully navigate and drive through six different types of terrain and five planned traverse scenarios using natural lighting under all communication delays. Results for average speeds for each communication delay, computed by averaging the data from all test conditions for that latency and all operators, are shown in the table below. The average speed data was then used to derive the total time needed to cover 6 km, 8 km, and 20 km (distances relevant to LTV-SYS071 and -029 requirements). Remote operators drove slower and used the brake more frequently when subject to a communication latency as opposed to no communication latency. Subjective workload assessments revealed that while operating in a latency the overall workload significantly increased when compared to a 0-s delay with mental demand, frustration, and performance being the primary contributing factors. Driving strategies in the 0-s delay did not vary significantly among subjects; however, in the 4-s delay condition, three different driving strategies were identified. In the 6-s and 8-s latency conditions the operator’s use of the cruise control to maintain speed was more apparent. Additionally, over the course of the August study, the operator took advantage of the predictive circle indicator on the navigation display and over 95% of the operator’s navigation used the mast camera 180-degree panning function for ground truthing in terms of boulders and craters. Operators started to define more specific parameters in driving strategies for general operations. This consisted of setting the vehicle into a low-speed cruise mode of approximately 11.5 kph and noticing driving performance of the vehicle seemed to be much harder at slower speeds 0.4–0.8 kph; however, the vehicle was more responsive at speeds of 2.9–3.6 kph. Regardless of communication delay, operators used both the horizontal translation rails and the vehicle fenders as guides to predict a path for the vehicle through heavily concentrated terrain features. Test operators acknowledged that the teleoperations training for this study was substantially less than what an actual LTV remote operator will ultimately receive. They estimated a minimum of 20 to 100 hours spread across multiple days and weeks (e.g., strategies included immersion training over a 3-day period, to a short 8-week starter program) would be needed to get an operator ~ 60% proficient (i.e., able to complete a subset of remote driving tasks), to a yearlong program for full proficiency in remote driving tasks under all terrain types and natural lighting conditions. Remotely operating a vehicle on another planetary body while subject to communication latency is a complex task. Speed, distance covered, time spent driving, time spent navigating, brake usage and rock contacts are all affected by operator workload, driving strategies, workstation ergonomics and training. These studies provided a “first-look” answer to a potential system requirement (namely if a remote operator could cover a given distance in a given amount of time); however, considerable general knowledge was gained to begin to understand what it will take to make a successful lunar rover teleoperator.

LTV↗

On the Representativity of Electrode Microstructure Parameters and Their Electrochemical Response for Lithium Ion Batteries

Lithium-ion battery electrochemical models require an accurate description of the electrodes microstructures to be predictive that can be achieved through nanoscale imaging. Such observations are however limited by their field of view (FOV), as they provide only a subset of the whole electrode volume that does not necessarily represent the whole electrode microstructure heterogeneity, and therefore can bias the microstructure analysis. A microstructure scale electrochemical model was used to investigate lithium plating onset, material non-uniform utilization, and in-plane heterogeneities for an NMC-graphite full cell. To evaluate the representativeness, and thus relevance, of these model predictions, a coupled representativity analysis has been performed on the microstructure parameters and, in a novel way, on the full cell electrochemical response. Electrode microstructure parameters representativeness has been first quantified using the representative volume element (RVE) methodology. The RVE major flaw is that ultimately it can only conclude if a FOV contains representative subvolumes of the FOV, but not if the FOV itself is representative of the electrode volume. Analysis can conclude negatively ('FOV is not representative'), but not positively ('FOV is representative'). One major contribution of this work was to quantify the convergence of the RVE size with the FOV, to actually investigate the FOV representativeness and thus partly remedy this intrinsic limitation. The analysis determined that performing a standard RVE calculation, without exploring its FOV convergence, is likely to strongly underestimate the actual RVE size. The new RVE methodology has been automated in the NREL open-source Microstructure Analysis Toolbox (MATBOX) and is available to the battery community. Representativeness of microstructure parameters is however only an intermediate step, as the end-results of an electrochemical model are performances predictions. Indeed, what is the practical consequence of a given deviation for a microstructure parameter? The microstructure parameter deviation propagations to the 3D microstructure scale electrochemical response have been then quantified for different charge rates. This defines a threshold for the microstructure parameters FOV for a desired maximum deviation of the electrochemical response. Such deviation propagation analysis is analogous to error propagation analysis and is necessary to determine the relevance of microstructure scale model predictions for macroscale predictions. Electrochemical model shows cell representative section areas are increasing with C-rate, due to higher in-plane heterogeneities, indicating larger FOVs are required specifically for fast charge modeling. Therefore, we introduced the novel concept of electrochemical RVE (eRVE) that is a function of the operating conditions (thus defined as a dynamic RVE), with an increasing dependence with the C-rate. Representativity analysis of the investigated cell determined a FOV of 144.4 x 54.4 m2 is large enough to establish a convergence on the representative section areas for low to intermediate C-rate (=2.5C), but not large enough to conclude for higher rates. This work aims to emphasize the importance of representativity analysis for LIB electrode microstructures, as it is required to estimate the error, and thus the relevance, of microstructure parameters intended to be used in macroscale models. The methodology and results can help researchers to select the relevant imaging and associated FOV required to provide accurate enough microstructure parameters.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Systems Analysis of Biomass and Coal Co-firing Power Plants with Deep Carbon Capture Toward Net-zero Emissions

Achieving a net-zero emission economy in the United States requires integrating diverse low-carbon and negative-emission technologies into the existing fossil fuel-dominant power fleet. Potential technologies from the low-carbon portfolio include renewable power, fossil power with carbon capture and storage (CCS), bioenergy with CCS (BECCS), and direct air capture (DAC). Renewable power is a clean energy source but has to pair with costly battery storage to provide dispatchable electricity. Fossil power with CCS offers dispatchable electricity yet still relies on DAC to offset residual emissions, even when deploying deep CCS with more than 90% CO2 capture. Coal-biomass co-firing with CCS, a subset of BECCS, is a reliable energy production technology that can be retrofitted from existing electricity generation units (EGUs). Power plant retrofit maximizes the use of the current U.S. coal power fleet without the need for large-scale deployment of new renewable power, battery storage, or DAC. Retrofitting coal-biomass co-firing with deep CCS in EGUs is a promising option, but not a universal solution. Biomass co-firing at a power plant introduces economic challenges and indirectly poses pressure on land and water resources. Meanwhile, retrofitting deep CCS affects plant efficiency and raises electricity generation costs. Overall, the technical feasibility and economic viability of plant retrofits vary across EGUs, as they are contingent upon the regional availability of biomass, unit-specific characteristics, site-specific fuel supply costs, and adjacent CO2 storage potential. Government incentives like 45Q can improve the retrofit viability, though the impact requires further quantification. A comprehensive analysis at the unit level is essential to address the question regarding the fate of the U.S. coal-fired electricity generation fleet toward the net-zero emission goal. This study conducts a systematic techno-economic-environmental assessment of EGUs to identify the viability of biomass co-firing and deep CCS retrofits in the U.S. coal-fired power fleet. Specifically, it characterizes the techno-economic performance of deep carbon capture, estimates life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and conducts a fleet-level assessment on retrofit viability. The key objectives are (1) to estimate the unit-specific performance and retrofitted cost under various biomass co-firing levels and CO2 capture rates; (2) to determine the possibility of reaching net-zero emission at the fleet level; (3) to quantify the cumulative capacities that are suitable for plant retrofits under current and future biomass supply scenarios; and (4) to improve the understanding of policy impacts on such retrofits to help the power sector’s transition to a net-zero economy. Techno-economic Model of Deep Carbon Capture. This study develops the performance and economic models for Monoethanolamine-based post-combustion CO2 capture at 95–99% capture rates. The process is simulated in Aspen Plus, analyzing the performance of carbon capture technology by varying the plant sizes, solvent lean loading, CO2 concentrations, and flue gas inlet temperature. Based on the key inputs and output parameters of CO2 capture, a reduced-order performance model of deep carbon capture is formulated. In addition, an engineering-economic model integrating the performance metrics is developed to estimate the capital as well as operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Capital cost estimations follow the framework of the Integrated Environmental Control Model (IECM) and incorporate data regressions from three technical reports by IECM, the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The O&M cost estimation utilizes the actual inventory consumption rate and labor requirements. Both performance and cost models are embedded into IECM v13.0-beta, a fossil-fuel power plant modeling tool. Life Cycle Assessment of Power Plants. This study estimates the GHG emissions of power plants through life cycle assessment (LCA). The LCA scope includes fuel supply, combustion-based power generation, and CO2 transport and storage. The fuel-based life cycle module is designed following the framework of the NETL Unit Process Library and CO2U LCA Guidance Toolkit. The module is then incorporated into IECM v13.0-beta. The process-based LCA is applied to estimate the GHG emissions of coal and biomass supply, coal- and coal-biomass co-firing power plant operation, as well as CO2 pipeline transport and geographical sequestration. An uncertainty analysis is conducted to quantify the variability and uncertainty associated with the LCA using the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) method. Fleet-level Assessment. This study evaluates the technical and economic feasibility of selected coal-fired EGUs, examines the role of tax credits in retrofit viability, and assesses the competitiveness of retrofitted units against other low-carbon options. Unit screening identifies EGUs for the study, focusing on new, efficient baseload units with air pollution controls. The power plant databases are then established to organize unit-specific information on performance and operating conditions from the relevant public databases. Biomass for co-firing retrofits is selected based on home and neighboring county availability, ensuring sustained operation with at least a 5% co-firing level. The CO2 storage site is determined by state-level storage potential, with ArcGIS Pro and NETL CO2 Saline Storage Cost Model used to identify the optimal balance between the nearest transport distances and affordable storage costs. The latest IECM v13.0-beta is then employed to configure and evaluate the eligible EGUs with or without the deployment of deep CCS and biomass co-firing. A supply curve is established to illustrate the cumulative installed capacity suitable for retrofits at different cost levels. A sensitivity analysis on tax credits for carbon sequestration is performed. Finally, a unit-level cost comparison is conducted among retrofitted plants, renewable power with battery storage, and abated fossil fuels with DAC. Expected Results. This study evaluates the technical, economic, and environmental metrics of each EGU across an array of CO2 capture rates and biomass co-firing level scenarios. Unit-level comparisons will identify critical factors influencing technical performance. The supply curves with and without tax incentives will provide insights into the impact of tax credits on biomass co-firing and CCS deployment. The cost comparisons with renewables and DAC-retrofit will assess the competitiveness of the retrofitted units. Life cycle emissions from each unit will be assessed to identify the scenarios under which net-zero emissions can be achieved. These analyses are expected to determine the total coal-fired capacity suitable for serving as a low-carbon energy source with or without tax incentives. The study results are novel in identifying optimal unit-specific strategies for producing carbon-neutral power, whether through retrofitting EGUs with deep CCS, biomass co-firing, DAC, or installing renewable power with battery. The findings will provide insight into nationwide efforts to ensure reliable, affordable, and low-carbon electricity. It also will inform investment decisions and policies in the deployment of deep carbon capture and negative emission technologies for a net-zero energy future.

Biomass Co-firing↗

HydraGNN_Predictive_GFM_2026 - Ensemble of predictive graph foundation models for atomistic materials modeling

This release contains data and parameters of HydraGNN-based graph foundation models trained as a result of the work published in the pre-print "Exascale Multi-Task Graph Foundation Models for Imbalanced, Multi-Fidelity Atomistic Data" by M. Lupo Pasini et al. (https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.15380). We jointly train on 16 open first-principles datasets (544+ million structures covering 85+ elements) using a multi-task architecture with per-dataset heads and a scalable ADIOS2/DDStore data pipeline. On Frontier, we execute six large-scale DeepHyper hyperparameter optimization campaigns in FP64 and promote the top-performing message-passing models to sustained 2,048-node training, yielding a PaiNN-based lead model. The version of HydraGNN used to generate the outputs provided in this release is HydraGNN v5.0 (https://github.com/ORNL/HydraGNN/releases/tag/v5.0) The list of datasets used for the training of the graph foundation model is the following: 1) Alexandria [1] 2) ANI1x [2] 3) MPTrj [3] 4) Open Catalyst 2020 (OC20) [4] 5) Open Catalyst 2022 (OC22) [5] 6) Open Catalyst 2025 (OC25) [6] 7) Open Direct ir Capture 2023 (ODAC23) [7] 8) Open Materials 2024 (OMat24) [8] 9) Open Molecules 2025 (OMol25) [9] 10) OMol25-neutral (subset of OMol25 that contains only molecules with zero total charge) 11) OMol25-non-neutral (subset of OMol25 that contains only molecules with non-zero total charge) 12) Open Polymers 2026 (OPoly2026) [10] 13) Nabla2DFT [11] 14) QCML [12] 15) QM7X [reference 13] 16) transition1x [14] Dataset references: [1] J. Schmidt et al., “A dataset of 175k stable and metastable materials calculated with the PBEsol and SCAN functionals,” Scientific Data, vol. 9, p. 64, 2022. [2] J. S. Smith et al., “The ANI-1ccx and ANI-1x data sets, coupled-cluster and density functional theory properties for molecules,” Scientific Data, vol. 7, p. 134, 2020. [Online]. Available: https: //www.nature.com/articles/s41597-020-0473-z [3] A. Jain et al., “Commentary: The Materials Project: A materials genome approach to accelerating materials innovation,” APL Materials, vol. 1, no. 1, p. 011002, 07 2013. [Online]. Available: https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4812323 [4] L. Chanussot et al., “Open catalyst 2020 (oc20) dataset and community challenges,” ACS Catalysis, vol. 11, no. 10, pp. 6059–6072, 2021. [Online]. Available: https://doi.org/10.1021/acscatal.0c04525 [5] K. Tran et al., “Open catalyst 2022 (oc22) dataset and challenges for oxidation electrocatalysts,” ACS Catalysis, vol. 13, no. 5, pp. 3066–3084, 2023. [Online]. Available: https://doi.org/10.1021/acscatal.2c05426 [6] S. J. Sahoo et al., “The open catalyst 2025 (oc25) dataset and models for solid-liquid interfaces,” arXiv preprint arXiv:2509.17862, 2025. [Online]. Available: https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.17862 [7] A. Sriram et al., “The open DAC 2023 dataset and challenges for sorbent discovery in direct air capture,” ACS Central Science, vol. 10, no. 5, pp. 923–941, 2024. [8] L. Barroso-Luque et al., “Open materials 2024 (omat24) inorganic materials dataset and models,” 2024. [Online]. Available: https://arxiv.org/abs/2410.12771 [9] D. S. Levine et al., “The open molecules 2025 (OMol25) dataset, evaluations, and models,” 2025. [Online]. Available: https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.08762 [10] D. S. Levine et al., The open polymers 2026 (OPoly26) dataset and evaluations,” arXiv preprint arXiv:2512.23117, 2025. [Online]. Available: https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.23117 [11] K. Khrabrov et al., “Nabla2dft: A universal quantum chemistry dataset of drug-like molecules and a benchmark for neural network potentials,” in NeurIPS 2024 Datasets and Benchmarks Track, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://openreview.net/forum?id=ElUrNM9U8c [12] S. Ganscha et al., “The QCML dataset, quantum chemistry reference data from 33.5M DFT and 14.7B semi-empirical calculations,” Scientific Data, vol. 12, p. 406, 2025. [13] J. Hoja et al., “QM7-X, a comprehensive dataset of quantum-mechanical properties spanning the chemical space of small organic molecules,” Scientific Data, vol. 8, p. 43, 2021. [Online]. Available: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41597-021-00812-2 [14] M. Schreiner et al., “Transition1x - a dataset for building generalizable reactive machine learning potentials,” Scientific Data, vol. 9, p. 779, 2022. The folder "datasets_ADIOS2_format" contains the set of pre-processed datasets in Adaptable I/O System (ADIOS) format (https://www.exascaleproject.org/research-project/adios/) that have been used for the development and training of GFMs in this work. The "datasets_ADIOS2_format" directory contains 2 sub-directories, one for the version "v1" of the datasets and one for the version "v2" of the datasets. The version "v1" of the datasets provides values of the total energy as they are extracted from the original data as it was released by the respective institutions. The version "v2" of the datasets provides values of the energy that have been realigned. The realignment was performed by training a linear regression model that predicts the total energy as a function of the chemical composition of the atomistic structure, and then subtract such prediction from the original value of the total energy. Both folders "v1" and "v2" contain 16 sub-directories, each corresponding to an ADIOS2-formatted dataset The folder "DeepHyper-results" contains the configurational files and model's parameters for all the 186 HPO trials that were successfully completed by the scalable hyperparameter optimization (HPO) runs on Frontier. The content of the folder "DeepHyper-results" I structured as follows: 1) task-list.txt: list of mpnn name, jobid, and deephyper task id 2) gfm_${MPNN}_${JOBID}_0.${TASKID}: run directory with checkpoint files 3) gfm_${MPNN}: deephyper summary directory (*.csv) for each specific MPNN type 4) deephyper-experiment-${JOBID}: output and error logs for each job The file "deephyper-sorted.csv" contains the details of each HydraGNN model built and tested by HPO, obtained by merging the (*.csv) filed from each HPO run executed. Out of all the HPO trials, we selected 10 to continue the training of the respective HydraGNN models. Due to limited computational budget available in the LRN070 allocation we could not complete the training till convergence for all these 10 selected models. The folder "models" contains multiple sub-folders, one per each HydraGNN model trained. Each model sub-folder contains the parameters of each HydraGNN model, with multiple checkpoint-restarts. The list of sub-folders are as follows: 1) multidataset_hpo-BEST1-fp64 2) multidataset_hpo-BEST2-fp64 3) multidataset_hpo-BEST3-fp64 4) multidataset_hpo-BEST4-fp64 5) multidataset_hpo-BEST5-fp64 6) multidataset_hpo-BEST6-fp64 7) multidataset_hpo-BEST7-fp64 8) multidataset_hpo-BEST8-fp64 9) multidataset_hpo-BEST9-fp64 10) multidataset_hpo-BEST10-fp64 Within each one of these folders, additional auxiliary log files are provided with descriptions about how the training proceeded. The lead PaiNN-model is contained inside "multidataset_hpo-BEST6-fp64". The file "mlp_branch_weights" contains the parameters of the multi-layer perceptron (MLP) used to reconcile the predictions of the 16 output decoding heads of the HydragNN architectures. The MLP takes in input the chemical composition of the atomistic structure and predicts averaging weights to linearly mix the predictions of each output decoding head toward consolidating them into a single one. The folder "1.1billion-structure-inference" contains 1.1 billion atomistic structures randomly generated. Each structures is associated with energy and forces predicted with the lead-PaiNN model combined with the MLP model for reconciliation of the multi-branch predictions generated by the 16 output decoding heads. The folder "1.1billion-structure-inference" contains 9,300 (*.tar.gz) subdirectories, one per Frontier compute node used to execute the inference at exascale. Once uncompressed, each (*.tar.gz) subdirectory contains an ADIOS2 (*.bp) file container, where each atomistic structure is stored as a PyTorch-Geometric Data object. The file "export_dataset_environment_variables.sh" contains the environment variables that need to be set before running the HydraGNN code to reproduce the results provided in this dataset release. The code that can be used to load the ADIOS2 files, load HydraGNN models, and run inference is available at: https://github.com/ORNL/HydraGNN/releases/tag/v5.0

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗