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At least 649 records · Page 36

Model-based Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning for Improved Physical Security Design: A Prototype

Prior work in FY24 developed an adversarial AI agent aid in path analysis of physical protection systems. This agent, trained using a model-based reinforcement learning algorithm, was able to successfully learn the most vulnerable path in facilities. It was able to extend the current state of practice for physical protection design by exhibiting dynamic behavior based on current environmental conditions. Whereas PathTrace largely performs a static, graph-based analysis, the AI agent was able to make decisions based on relative position in the facility, current conditions (was the adversarial agnet discovered?), and proximity to secondary targets. The agent demonstrated some novel capabilities, but had limitations that need to be resolved before it can be used for production purposes. For example, the adversarial agent generalizes poorly and takes a relatively long time to train. Nonetheless, there is still considerable promise for developing the adversarial agent further in order to explore even richer, more dynamic behaviors (e.g., adversary motivations, environmental debris, and more). This work considers a complementary idea; development of a planning agent. The planning agent is envisioned as an auto-complete-like tool that can help accelerate security system design by human experts. The agent would respect existing barriers and sensors placed by a human expert while offering cost-effective suggestions (i.e., implicitly balancing effectiveness with cost) to improve the design. The goal is for this agent to be part of an expert’s toolbox, not to totally upend the current state-of-practice, or to displace human experts. The ultimate goal would be concurrent training of both the adversarial and planning agent together, to learn entirely through self-play. This would represent an entirely new way of performing system deign. We selected a hierarchical, model-based reinforcement learning algorithm to serve as the planning agent. This is an extension of concepts used in the prior FY24 adversarial agent work. There, we had a single agent acting an environment. Here, we have two different sub-agents (policies), working together, to form a complete agent. There is a manager policy, which can select abstract goals on slower time scales, and a worker, which performs primitive actions to reach goals selected by the manager. It is worth noting that this class of algorithm is challenging to work with. From our understanding, our work is one of the first successful uses of model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) in nuclear energy1 , and likely the first hierarchical model-based reinforcement learning application in nuclear energy. Further, this work is one of the first known attempts to apply AI to perform a design tasks in nuclear energy. Consequently, there were significant implementation challenges and the bulk of the work was focused on successful implementation and algorithm design. The results presented here are very low technology readiness level as a consequence of the lack of related literature, but still represent a significant step forward in the pursuit of applied AI for design.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Development of mesopores in superfine grain graphite neutron-irradiated at high fluence

Microstructural changes induced by neutron irradiation of superfine grain graphite G347A (Tokai Carbon, Japan) were examined by nitrogen adsorption at 77K and by three microscopy techniques (SEM, TEM and FIB-SEM tomography). The specimens were irradiated at doses of up to 30 dpa, covering stages before and after the turnaround fluence at three temperatures (300, 450, 750 °C) of their irradiation envelope. The initial graphite densification at low fluences did not produce any detectable effect in the pore size range (<350 nm) measured by gas adsorption. However, graphite irradiated at high fluences, after turnaround, showed severe structural changes. At all three temperatures and high irradiation fluences, gas adsorption revealed significant increase of the volume of narrow mesopores (<5–20nm) and up to five times increase of BET surface area, both in linear relationship with the relative volume expansion. Analysis of microscopy images showed multiplication of fine macropores (>50 nm) at high irradiation fluences and more structural changes on multiple scales, from nanometers to microns. This work demonstrates the unique ability of gas adsorption techniques to analyze open pores with sizes between sub-nanometer and sub-micron in bulk nuclear graphite, with supporting microscopy results.

I. Contescu, Cristian↗

ACCESS and LRG-BEASTS: A Precise New Optical Transmission Spectrum of the Ultrahot Jupiter WASP-103b

We present a new ground-based optical transmission spectrum of the ultrahot Jupiter WASP-103b (T{sub eq}=2484 K). Our transmission spectrum is the result of combining five new transits from the ACCESS survey and two new transits from the LRG-BEASTS survey with a reanalysis of three archival Gemini/GMOS transits and one VLT/FORS2 transit. Our combined 11-transit transmission spectrum covers a wavelength range of 3900–9450 Å with a median uncertainty in the transit depth of 148 parts per million, which is less than one atmospheric scale height of the planet. In our retrieval analysis of WASP-103b’s combined optical and infrared transmission spectrum, we find strong evidence for unocculted bright regions (4.3σ) and weak evidence for H{sub 2}O (1.9σ), HCN (1.7σ), and TiO (2.1σ), which could be responsible for WASP-103b’s observed temperature inversion. Our optical transmission spectrum shows significant structure that is in excellent agreement with the extensively studied ultrahot Jupiter WASP-121b, for which the presence of VO has been inferred. For WASP-103b, we find that VO can only provide a reasonable fit to the data if its abundance is implausibly high and we do not account for stellar activity. Our results highlight the precision that can be achieved by ground-based observations and the impacts that stellar activity from F-type stars can have on the interpretation of exoplanet transmission spectra.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

EUCLID Sensitivity Database

This report documents the EUCLID sensitivity database along with its several use-cases. EUCLID computed sensitivities for the following integral responses: Criticality of ICSBEP critical assemblies, LLNL pulsed-sphere neutron-leakage spectra, reaction rates in selected ICBSEP critical assemblies, delayed neutron factions of selected ICSBEP critical assemblies, reactivity coefficients in two ICSBEP critical assemblies, sub-critical assembly responses and Rossi-alpha of selected critical assemblies. It is described for each response what the reported observable constitutes, the method we used to obtain the sensitivities, and which integral experiments were studied. It is also documented briefly in what format these sensitivities are stored. These sensitivities were used for many aspects of the EUCLID project, like ML-supported large-scale nuclear-data validation, or optimization of integral experiments. But these sensitivities can also be applied for more established processes in the nuclear-data application field such as adjustment or assessing the upper sub-critical limit.

Delayed Neutron Fraction↗

Linear-Scaling Local Natural Orbital-Based Full Triples Treatment in Coupled-Cluster Theory

We present an efficient, asymptotically linear-scaling implementation of the canonically O(N 8 ) coupled-cluster method with singles, doubles, and full triples excitations (CCSDT) method. We apply the domain-based local pair natural orbital (DLPNO) approach for computing CCSDT amplitudes. Our method, called DLPNO–CCSDT, uses the converged coupled-cluster amplitudes from a preceding DLPNO–CCSD(T) computation as a starting point for the solution of the CCSDT equations in the local natural orbital basis. To simplify the working equations, we t1-dress our two-electron integrals and Fock matrices, allowing our equations to take on the form of CCDT. With appropriate parameters, our method can recover more than 99.99% of the total canonical CCSDT correlation energy. In addition, we demonstrate that our method consistently yields sub-kJ mol –1 errors in relative energies when compared to canonical CCSDT, and, likewise, when computing the difference between CCSDT and CCSD(T). Finally, to highlight the low scaling of our algorithm, we present timings on linear alkanes (up to 30 carbons and 730 basis functions) and water clusters (up to 131 water molecules and 3144 basis functions).

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Field-scale mapping of California crop water productivity to inform water management in critically overdrafted groundwater basins

Crop water productivity (CWP) metrics can reveal how the dynamics of crop production and water use change across space and time. We use field-scale satellite inputs from 2016–2021 to estimate potential water savings for four crops (almonds, grapes, walnuts, and citrus—which collectively account for approximately one-third of California’s cropland area), within critically overdrafted groundwater sub-basins of California’s San Joaquin Valley. These annual estimates of field-level water savings potential are based on locally achievable CWP values for each crop type. Our findings show considerable spatial variation in CWP and potential water savings within each sub-basin. We find that increasing CWP to peak efficiency (defined as improving fields to the 95th percentile of observed CWP) for four crops could meet up to 36% of the estimated annual overdraft in San Joaquin Valley. For comparison, fallowing 5% of the four crop type fields in the same study area could potentially reduce annual overdraft by 11%. By delivering results at the field scale, our work can inform targeted interventions by irrigation district managers and more efficient allocation of state incentives for improved water management. For example, we estimate that state grant funding for water efficiency upgrades could have amplified potential water savings threefold by targeting investments to the least efficient fields.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Testing of a 40-kWth Counterflow Particle-Supercritical Carbon Dioxide Narrow-Channel, Fluidized Bed Heat Exchanger

Particle-based primary heat exchangers (HXs) must deliver sCO2 fluid temperatures above 700°C to couple particle-based concentrating solar receivers and thermal energy storage (TES) sub-systems with efficient sCO2 power cycles. Particle-sCO2 HX designs have struggled to meet DOE cost targets (≤ $150/kWth) due to the amount of expensive nickel alloys necessary for manufacturing full-scale, particle-sCO2 HXs. Our team has demonstrated that mild bubbling fluidization of falling particles in a counterflow narrow-channel fluidized bed can reduce required HX surface area and thus, costs by increasing particle-wall heat transfer coefficients hT,w > 800 W m-2 K-1. This paper reports on the fabrication and testing of a stainless steel, particle-sCO2 HX with 12 fluidized-bed channels approximately 10.5 mm deep spaced between diffusion-bonded, micro-channel sCO2 plates. The HX with a core length of ≈0.56 m is fed with CARBOBEAD HSP particles through a short, fluidized freeboard zone just above the core. Testing to date in the National Solar Thermal Test Facility (NSTTF) at Sandia National Laboratories has shown that parallel bed fluidization maintains uniform particle inventory across the instrumented channels. Heat transfer thermal duty between the particle and sCO2 flows exceeds 30 kWth with sCO2 inlet temperatures of 200ºC and particle inlet temperatures up to 440ºC and mass flow rates of 0.2 kg s-1 fluidized by counterflowing gas flow rates of 0.005 kg s-1. Tests at higher particle and sCO2 inlet temperatures (600ºC and 400ºC respectively) are targeted to achieve > 40 kWth with model-predicted overall heat transfer coefficients U > 400 W m-2 K-1.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Convection-permitting hindcasting of diurnal variation of Mei-yu rainfall over East China with a global variable-resolution model

Two sets of 48-hr hindcast experiments for Mei-yu season using non-hydrostatic global variable-resolution model (MPAS-Atmosphere) with regional refinement at 4km resolution (V4km) and uniform 60km resolution (U60km) are first-time conducted to attempt at simulating the Mei-yu rainfall in 2015 over East China. The analysis focuses on the seasonal average of diurnal variation of precipitation amount (PA), intensity (PI), and frequency (PF). Both simulations reasonably reproduce the spatial distribution of PA. V4km is more skillful in simulating the spatial distributions and magnitudes of PF and PI. The diurnal cycle of Mei-yu rainfall shows a major early morning peak and a minor afternoon peak, contributed by precipitation during two sub-periods with distinct synoptic circulations. With strong Mei-yu in the first sub-period, the diurnal variation of PA is controlled by nocturnal southwesterly jet. V4km overestimates the morning peak mainly due to its bias in simulating boundary layer inertial oscillation. Although differences in PA between the simulations are small, U60km overestimates PF and underestimates PI. With weak Mei-yu in the second sub-period, the diurnal variation of PA is controlled by both synoptic circulation and local convection. At both resolutions, deviations in the large-scale circulation modulated by a few typhoons lead to positive biases in the morning peak of PA. After removing the typhoon impacts, V4km captures the observed diurnal cycle of PA well, while U60km significantly underestimates PA and PI particularly in the afternoon. Future studies focusing on advancing modeling of southwesterly jet and typhoons may further improve convection permitting simulation of Mei-yu rainfall.

Xu, Mingyue↗

Parameterizing Convective Organization Effects With a Moisture-PDF Approach in Climate Models: Concept and a Regional Case Simulation

We propose a parameterization scheme of convective organization effects based on a moisture-distribution approach, which can reflect aggregation of convective cells within a model grid as well as the interaction between convection and spatial heterogeneity in free-troposphere moisture. With this concept, convective cells in an aggregated state are surrounded by air that is moister than the grid-mean condition, which provides a “shielding” effect favorable for deeper convective updrafts. Such effects are represented quantitatively via utilizing a schematic diagram about the geometric interpretation of convective cluster, dry area, and their contact area, in which both the convective cluster size and dry area fraction increase during the development of convection. Our sensitivity analyses indicate that the new scheme performs well in capturing the mean precipitation features. Excluding the convective organization effects in the model leads to a considerable reduction in the simulated precipitation magnitude. Notably, there exists an inverse relationship between background mean moisture condition and sub-grid moisture variability for a given rain rate, suggesting that with a high spatial heterogeneity in free-troposphere moisture, convection can still develop and maintain its strength under relatively dry background conditions, consistent with the convection-permitting model simulation. Overall, our new parameterization of convective organization effects can successfully reproduce the relationship between precipitation and sub-grid moisture variability, which is a missing element in traditional convection parameterization schemes but important for the simulations of precipitation variability at various scales in climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Nanofabrication of synthetic nanoporous geomaterials: from nanoscale-resolution 3D imaging to nano-3D-printed digital (shale) rock

Abstract Advances in imaging have made it possible to view nanometer and sub-nanometer structures that are either synthesized or that occur naturally. It is believed that fluid dynamic and thermodynamic behavior differ significantly at these scales from the bulk. From a materials perspective, it is important to be able to create complex structures at the nanometer scale, reproducibly, so that the fluid behavior may be studied. New advances in nanoscale-resolution 3D-printing offer opportunities to achieve this goal. In particular, additive manufacturing with two-photon polymerization allows creation of intricate structures. Using this technology, a creation of the first nano-3D-printed digital (shale) rock is reported. In this paper, focused ion beam-scanning electron microscopy (FIB-SEM) nano-tomography image dataset was used to reconstruct a high-resolution digital rock 3D model of a Marcellus Shale rock sample. Porosity of this 3D model has been characterized and its connected/effective pore system has been extracted and nano-3D-printed. The workflow of creating this novel nano-3D-printed digital rock 3D model is described in this paper.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Investigating the minimum post-burst energy required to function an exploding bridgewire detonator

The minimum energy required after bridge-burst to function a commercially available RP-1 exploding bridgewire detonator with a gold bridgewire was investigated using two capacitor discharge units (CDUs) making use of state-of-the-art on/off high-voltage high-current switches. Both switches are capable of shutting off the current flow in ≈100ns and the conduction time was varied systematically to limit the duration of electrical energy delivered from the CDU until a detonation go/no-go threshold was reached. It was found that the minimal extra electrical energy required for a soft-fire (a statistically marginal go) was approximately half that required for a hard-fire (a definite go). Furthermore, the measured energy required to function the RP-1 detonator from the 11.5 kV CDU was approximately 20 mJ greater than for the 600 V CDU, and it is postulated that this was due to arcing across the detonator terminals and an associated current shunt that was not efficient at depositing energy conducive to detonator functioning. Measurements of the bridgewire temperatures bursting in air showed that the maximum temperature reached was consistent (≈18kK) when sufficient energy was delivered that the detonator functioned (either soft- or hard-fire), but that the temperature for a sub-threshold bridgewire burst was significantly cooler at approximately 8 kK. Furthermore, it was demonstrated that the intensity of the light emitted at burst scaled with deposited energy. A related finding is that the light emission from the bridgewire peaks some tens of nanoseconds after both peak voltage and peak electrical power.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Backlighting extended gas halos around luminous red galaxies: Kinematic Sunyaev-Zel’dovich effect from DESI Y1 and ACT data

The gas density profile around galaxies, shaped by feedback and affecting the galaxy lensing signal, is imprinted on the cosmic microwave background (CMB) by the kinematic Sunyaev-Zel’dovich effect (kSZ). We precisely measure this effect (𝑆/𝑁 ≈ 10) via velocity stacking with 825,283 spectroscopically confirmed luminous red galaxies (LRG) from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Year 1 (DESI Y1) survey, which overlap with the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) Data Release 6 temperature maps over ≥ 4,000 deg 2 . We explore the kSZ dependence with various galaxy parameters and find no significant trend with redshift but clear trends with stellar mass and absolute magnitude in 𝑔, 𝑟, and 𝑧 bands. Our analysis suggests that the gas extends beyond the dark matter halo (99.5% confidence level, i.e., probability to exceed (PTE)⁢ = 0.005). We find a tentative preference for hydrodynamical simulation models with stronger feedback that drives gas further out (Illustris 𝑧 = 0.5, PTE⁢ = 0.37) over weaker-feedback cases (IllustrisTNG 𝑧 = 0.8, PTE⁢ = 0.045), though with limited statistical significance. In all cases, a free multiplicative amplitude was fit to the simulated profiles, and further modeling work is required to firm up these conclusions. We find consistency between kSZ profiles around spectroscopic and photometric LRG, with comparable statistical power, thus increasing our confidence in the photometric analysis. Additionally, we present the first kSZ measurement around the DESI Y1 bright galaxy sample (BGS) and the emission-line galaxies (ELG) whose features match qualitative expectations. Finally, we forecast 𝑆/𝑁 ∼ 50 for future stacked kSZ measurements using data from the ACT, the DESI Y3, and the Rubin Observatory. Furthermore, these measurements will serve as an input for galaxy formation models and baryonic uncertainties in galaxy lensing.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Next Generation Durable, Cost Effective, Energy Efficient Tubular SOFC (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

The overall objective of this project is to develop and optimize a YSZ electrolyte-based solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) technology for low cost, low temperature (~ 650°C), and high energy efficiency operation. The developed technology will be implemented and demonstrated in a high efficiency 2~3kW SOFC with applicability to sub-MW systems. A summary of significant accomplishments is provided below. Key accomplishments: 1. Improved fundamental cell technology demonstrated at single tube and system scale. Improved power output by 54% while operating at the normal temperature of 750°C. And improved power output by 33% while operating at 650°C, 100°C lower than normal temperature. 2. SPS patented internal recycle arrangement was developed and extended to operate on LPG fuel directly in a compact, high-efficiency (> 40%) system. 3. System testing was conducted to prove the long-term durability of cell improvements. Demonstrated over 8000 hours of operation at 0.21 %/1000 hrs degradation. 4. A large-scale, 2.5kW net power system demonstration was completed, which demonstrated 40% net efficiency over 1000 hours. 5. System design and cost analysis of a 1MW system utilizing a 2.5kW bundle was completed. Cost optimization of the bundle showed a reduction of nearly 80% is possible from $\$$5,790/kW to $\$$1250/kW. This lower cost is considered viable for SPS commercialization.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

LLNL FESP Theory Highlights: October 2024

I. Novikau, I. Y. Dodin, E. A. Startsev, I. Joseph, Quantum algorithms for simulating dissipative linear and nonlinear dynamics of plasmas. Invited talk at the 66th Annual Meeting of the APS Division of Plasma Physics, Atlanta, Georgia. Novikau I., Dodin I.Y., Startsev E.A., Encoding of linear kinetic plasma problems in quantum circuits via data compression, Journal of Plasma Physics. 2024;90(4):805900401, doi:10.1017/S0022377824000795. We propose an algorithm for encoding linear kinetic plasma problems in quantum circuits. The focus is on modelling electrostatic linear waves in a one-dimensional Maxwellian electron plasma. The waves are described by the linearized Vlasov–Ampère system with a spatially localized external current that drives plasma oscillations. This system is formulated as a boundary-value problem and cast in the form of a linear vector equation to be solved by using the quantum signal processing algorithm. The latter requires encoding of a matrix in a quantum circuit as a sub-block of a unitary matrix. We propose how to encode in a circuit in a compressed form and discuss how the resulting circuit scales with the problem size and the desired precision.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Multi-physics Preconditioning for Thermally Activated Batteries

Thermal batteries, also known as molten-salt batteries, are single-use reserve power systems activated by pyrotechnic heat generation, which transitions the solid electrolyte into a molten state. The simulation of these batteries relies on multiphysics modeling to evaluate performance and behavior under various conditions. This paper presents advancements in scalable preconditioning strategies for the Thermally Activated Battery Simulator (TABS) tool, enabling efficient solutions to the coupled electrochemical systems that dominate computational costs in thermal battery simulations. We propose a hierarchical block Gauss-Seidel preconditioner implemented through the Teko package in Trilinos, which effectively addresses the challenges posed by tightly coupled physics, including charge transport, porous flow, and species diffusion. The preconditioner leverages scalable subblock solvers, including smoothed aggregation algebraic multigrid (SA-AMG) methods and domain-decomposition techniques, to achieve robust convergence and parallel scalability. Strong and weak scaling studies demonstrate the solver’s ability to handle problem sizes up to 51.3 million degrees of freedom on 2048 processors, achieving near sub-second setup and solve times for the end-to-end electrochemical solve. These advancements significantly improve the computational efficiency and turnaround time of thermal battery simulations, paving the way for higher-resolution models and enabling the transition from 2D axisymmetric to full 3D simulations.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Modular Processing of Flare Gas for Carbon Nanoproducts

This project demonstrated the technical viability and economic promise of a modular system for converting flared natural gas into valuable carbon nanoproducts (CNPs) through catalytic chemical vapor deposition (CVD). All major project milestones were successfully completed, including reactor design and commissioning, catalyst development, process optimization, technoeconomic analysis, and application testing in concrete systems. The overarching goal was to create a scalable, field-deployable process that valorizes stranded methane by producing high-value carbon materials for use in cementitious composites. At the lab scale, the team designed and built a fluidized bed reactor optimized for use with silica fume-supported nickel catalysts synthesized via atomic layer deposition (ALD). A statistically designed sintering study enabled precise tuning of nickel nanoparticle size, identifying the influence of oxygen partial pressure, time, and temperature on catalyst morphology and performance. These insights allowed the team to target catalyst conditions that maximize carbon nanofilament growth. Subsequent CVD experiments achieved up to 31.8 wt% carbon deposition under optimized conditions, with TEM confirming the presence of nanofilament structures and sustained hydrogen evolution during reaction. Reactor upgrades and empirical fluidization studies supported the development of reliable, repeatable experimental protocols. The modular pilot-scale skid reactor was fully constructed, instrumented, and commissioned. Capable of operating at 675–800°C and pressures up to 290 psig, the system was designed for continuous operation at a carbon production rate of 1 kg/hr. Initial demonstration runs confirmed solids handling, thermal control, and system leak-tightness, although a critical reactor component (the downfeed tube) was inadvertently omitted during final assembly. This omission limited gas–solid contact and prevented meaningful carbon deposition during pilot-scale CVD runs. Nonetheless, the system operated safely under design conditions, and the root cause of performance limitations was clearly identified. Complementary work on UHPC formulations demonstrated that small additions of carbon nanoproducts, including those derived from flare gas, can significantly enhance mechanical performance while preserving workability. A comprehensive study of CNF dispersion techniques and mix design optimization led to a clear protocol for integrating these nanomaterials into concrete. Incorporation of CNPs improved flexural toughness and reduced porosity, supporting their use in high-performance infrastructure applications. A technoeconomic analysis (TEA) confirmed that this process can produce CNP-loaded catalyst material at a levelized cost below $\$$7/kg across a range of catalyst loadings and reaction yields. With estimated market values for the carbon composite product ranging from $\$$14 to over $\$$60/kg, and the ability to blend CNPs into concrete at sub-percent levels with less than 10% added cost, the system presents a compelling economic case. While additional engineering work is needed to optimize fluidization and heat transfer at scale, this project establishes a strong foundation for commercial development. The process is not only technically sound but also economically promising, representing a viable pathway for flare gas mitigation through modular carbon nanomaterial production.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

ISMIP6-based projections of ocean-forced Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution using the Community Ice Sheet Model

Abstract. The future retreat rate for marine-based regions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is one of the largest uncertainties in sea-level projections. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) aims to improve projections and quantify uncertainties by running an ensemble of ice sheet models with atmosphere and ocean forcing derived from global climate models. Here, the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) is used to run ISMIP6-based projections of ocean-forced Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution. Using multiple combinations of sub-ice-shelf melt parameterizations and calibrations, CISM is spun up to steady state over many millennia. During the spin-up, basal friction parameters and basin-scale thermal forcing corrections are adjusted to optimize agreement with the observed ice thickness. The model is then run forward for 550 years, from 1950–2500, applying ocean thermal forcing anomalies from six climate models. In all simulations, the ocean forcing triggers long-term retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, especially in the Filchner–Ronne and Ross sectors. Mass loss accelerates late in the 21st century and then rises steadily for several centuries without leveling off. The resulting ocean-forced sea-level rise at year 2500 varies from about 150 to 1300 mm, depending on the melt scheme and ocean forcing. Further experiments show relatively high sensitivity to the basal friction law, moderate sensitivity to grid resolution and the prescribed collapse of small ice shelves, and low sensitivity to the stress-balance approximation. The Amundsen sector exhibits threshold behavior, with modest retreat under many parameter settings but complete collapse under some combinations of low basal friction and high thermal forcing anomalies. Large uncertainties remain, as a result of parameterized sub-shelf melt rates, simplified treatments of calving and basal friction, and the lack of ice–ocean coupling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Final Technical Report - Rapid Surface Microanalysis using a Low Temperature Plasma

This project focused on improving our current understanding and scientific knowledge in the area of plasma-surface interactions and plasma assisted material synthesis related to advanced microelectronics and nanotechnology. Current challenges include: controlling the interaction of Low Temperature Plasma (LTP) with a single layer of atoms to manufacture integrated circuits, continued miniaturization of integrated circuits, LTP processing of material surfaces and thin films to enable industrial scale fabrication of advanced microelectronics, synthesis of new materials, nanomaterials, nanotubes, and complex materials, Technology developed in this subtopic is of value to either (i) enable scans of surfaces (~1 sq. cm area) using various microscopies (electron, optical, other) at high resolution (micron or sub-micron resolution) rapidly (hours or days rather than years to complete a high-resolution scan of such a large surface area), or (ii) enable scans of surfaces (~1 sq. cm area) using various microscopies (electron, optical, other) at relatively low resolution rapidly, then apply algorithms to select spots for micron-scale imaging. Sputtering occurs when particles of a solid material are ejected from its surface by energetic particles from a plasma. While the degradation of the solid material and the subsequent deposition of the ejected material onto vulnerable surfaces are the usual subjects of sputtering studies, plasma science has yet to be combined with sputtering to create new diagnostics devices and systems. Small changes in the design of the plasma discharge device make it possible to create broad plasma beams for rapid scanning or small plasma beams to obtain the distribution of ejected elements with micron resolution. In the high-resolution use, the ion flux is extracted from the gas-discharge plasma and focused by a spherical emission surface to micron sizes onto the target specimen, providing very local sputtering and local elemental analysis. We call this “self-focusing”. The radiation from the excited and ionized sputtered atoms is recorded by a spectrometer through a window and fiberglass cable and analyzed with standard software packages used for optical glow discharge spectroscopy. Computer simulations of beam formation were used to verify and optimize the designs to be tested. A prototype was designed, constructed, and used to start experiments of beam formation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗