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At least 649 records · Page 36

Reconfigurable Cellular Composite Structures for Lighter than Air Vehicles with Scalable Size and Endurance

Engineered non-stochastic cellular materials show promising characteristics on the laboratory scale,with nearly ideal specific stiffness and strength scaling at ultralight mass density. These propertiessuggest performance benefits in any application with combined stiffness and mass constraints, suchas air vehicles. We investigate here the application of re-configurable cellular composite materialsand structures to lighter than air vehicles. We describe the properties and applicability of these materials,provide an example analysis of governing loading conditions associated with airships, showan example optimization method for navigating the design space, and describe how recent advancesin cellular material manufacturing and reconfiguration enable system performance benefits includingnew concepts of operation. Lastly, we propose lighter than air vehicles that are assembled andmaintained in-flight, eliminating structural compromises associated with transitional flight modesand ground handling.Engineered non-stochastic cellular material properties suggest performance benefits in lighter than air vehicles due tostiffness and mass constraints that are intrinsic to the airship design problem. Recent advances in cellular materialmanufacturing and reconfiguration enable system performance benefits including new concepts of operation, such aslighter than air vehicles that are assembled and maintained in-flight, eliminating structural compromises associatedwith transitional flight modes and ground handling. Existing engineered cellular materials display properties allowinglarge large scale airships design as monocoque cellular solids. Inevitable improvements in cellular material propertiesand manufacturing will improve feasibility even further. Given the suggestion that the two most significant technologygaps exist across all current airship projects are manufacturing and assembly processes and ground handling [7],a strategy that encompasses construction and maintenance in flight could provide critical rephrasing of the systemdesign problem through these new concepts of operation. Refactoring of traditional manufacturing, operation, andservice process constraints could extend to other domains in aerospace systems and manufacturing in general.In future work, the complexity of the design task would benefit from a form of optimization in order to find themost suitable geometry for a chosen application. For example, the Sequential Least SQuares Programming (SLSQP)function from within the SciPy Minimize library is a multiobjective constrained optimization method that has beenapplied to fixed wing aircraft design. [17] In this situation it would allow for several objective functions such as drag,bending stiffness, buoyancy and cost of transport to be incorporated into a composite objective function.

Copplestone, Grace↗

Stochastic models of cover class dynamics

Investigations related to satellite remote sensing of vegetation have been concerned with questions of signature identification and extension, cover inventory accuracy, and change detection and monitoring. Attention is given to models of ecological succession, present directions in successional modeling and analysis, nondynamic spatial models, issues in the analysis of spatial data, and aspects of spatial modeling. Issues in time-series analysis are considered along with dynamic spatial models, and problems of model specification and identification.

Barringer, T. H.↗

Error analysis of image reconstruction by a synthetic aperture interferometric radiometer

An error analysis is presented for the image reconstruction algorithm currently employed by the electronically steered thinned array radiometer aircraft instrument. This instrument samples components of the Fourier transform of the brightness temperature distribution at 1.4 GHz. Sources of error are identified, including systematic offsets and stochastic noise in the measurements, errors in the interference pattern antenna calibration, multipath scattering from the antenna support structure, mutual coupling between nearby array elements, and variations in the antenna patterns of the array elements. These errors are shown to produce artifacts in the image which appear as 'streaks' running along the instrument flight line. Possible hardware corrections are discussed. These include a reduction in the profile of the antenna support structure and a decoupling of adjacent and other nearby array elements using corrugated 'skirts'. Also discussed are several image enhancement techniques which detect and correct for some of the streaking. These techniques include a renormalization of the interference patterns based on the measured element patterns, a perturbation based interpretation of image contrast, and a covariance analysis of noise present in the image.

Ruf, Christopher S.↗

A quantal diffusion approach for multinucleon transfer in heavy-ion collisions

The stochastic mean-field (SMF) approach beyond the time-dependent-Hartree-Fock theory is used to explore the primary production cross sections in 64 Ni + 130 Te at the bombarding energy E c.m. = 184.3 MeV and 206 Pb + 118 Sn at E c.m. = 436.8 MeV. Secondary production cross-sections in the same systems are calculated using a statistical de-excitation model with GEMINI++ code. Furthermore, the obtained results are compared with available experimental data. Analysis employing SMF and GEMINI++ exhibit a good agreement with the experimental data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Enabling scientific machine learning in MOOSE using Libtorch

A neural-network-based machine learning interface has been developed for the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE). The interface relies on Libtorch, the C++ front-end of PyTorch, and enables an online interaction between modern machine learning algorithms and all the existing simulation, modeling, and analysis processes available in MOOSE. New capabilities in MOOSE include the native generation and training of artificial neural networks together with options to load pretrained neural networks in TorchScript format. Furthermore, the MOOSE stochastic tools module (MOOSE-STM) has been enhanced with neural network-based surrogate and reduced-order model generation options for efficient stochastic analyses. Lastly, a reinforcement learning capability has been added to MOOSE-STM for the interactive control and optimization of complex multiphysics problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Quantifying Load Uncertainty Using Real Smart Meter Data

As we get closer to customers in distribution systems, load stochasticity increases. In the past, due to lack of real-time data, the comprehensive knowledge of load behavior was limited, and simplistic assumptions had to be made for distribution system modeling and analysis, especially in the processes of network design and expansion. With the deployment of Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI), ample real-time smart meter data has become available to utilities. In this paper, using real hourly smart meter data, we have quantified load uncertainty in terms of average, maximum and maximum noncoincident demands on a daily basis, as well as load factor and diversity factor. These uncertainty metrics are examined for individual residential, commercial and industrial customers, as well as distribution transformers serving residential customers. This paper provides a benchmark on load uncertainty quantification for practicing engineers and researchers.

Bu, Fankun↗

Particle-laden weakly swirling free jets: Measurements and predictions

A theoretical and experimental investigation of particle-laden, weakly swirling, turbulent free jets was conducted. Glass particles, having a Sauter mean diameter of 39 microns, with a standard deviation of 15 microns, were used. A single loading ratio (the mass flow rate of particles per unit mass flow rate of air) of 0.2 was used in the experiments. Measurements are reported for three swirl numbers, ranging from 0 to 0.33. The measurements included mean and fluctuating velocities of both phases, and particle mass flux distributions. Measurements were also completed for single-phase non-swirling and swirling jets, as baselines. Measurements were compared with predictions from three types of multiphase flow analysis, as follows: (1) locally homogeneous flow (LHF) where slip between the phases was neglected; (2) deterministic separated flow (DSF), where slip was considered but effects of turbulence/particle interactions were neglected; and (3) stochastic separated flow (SSF), where effects of both interphase slip and turbulence/particle interactions were considered using random sampling for turbulence properties in conjunction with random-walk computations for particle motion. Single-phase weakly swirling jets were considered first. Predictions using a standard k-epsilon turbulence model, as well as two versions modified to account for effects of streamline curvature, were compared with measurements. Predictions using a streamline curvature modification based on the flux Richardson number gave better agreement with measurements for the single-phase swirling jets than the standard k-epsilon model. For the particle-laden jets, the LHF and DSF models did not provide very satisfactory predictions. The LHF model generally overestimated the rate of decay of particle mean axial and angular velocities with streamwise distance, and predicted particle mass fluxes also showed poor agreement with measurements, due to the assumption of no-slip between phases. The DSF model also performed quite poorly for predictions of particle mass flux because turbulent dispersion of the particles was neglected. The SSF model, which accounts for both particle inertia and turbulent dispersion of the particles, yielded reasonably good predictions throughout the flow field for the particle-laden jets.

Bulzan, Daniel L.↗

Two-stage model of radon-induced malignant lung tumors in rats: effects of cell killing

A two-stage stochastic model of carcinogenesis is used to analyze lung tumor incidence in 3750 rats exposed to varying regimens of radon carried on a constant-concentration uranium ore dust aerosol. New to this analysis is the parameterization of the model such that cell killing by the alpha particles could be included. The model contains parameters characterizing the rate of the first mutation, the net proliferation rate of initiated cells, the ratio of the rates of cell loss (cell killing plus differentiation) and cell division, and the lag time between the appearance of the first malignant cell and the tumor. Data analysis was by standard maximum likelihood estimation techniques. Results indicate that the rate of the first mutation is dependent on radon and consistent with in vitro rates measured experimentally, and that the rate of the second mutation is not dependent on radon. An initial sharp rise in the net proliferation rate of initiated cell was found with increasing exposure rate (denoted model I), which leads to an unrealistically high cell-killing coefficient. A second model (model II) was studied, in which the initial rise was attributed to promotion via a step function, implying that it is due not to radon but to the uranium ore dust. This model resulted in values for the cell-killing coefficient consistent with those found for in vitro cells. An "inverse dose-rate" effect is seen, i.e. an increase in the lifetime probability of tumor with a decrease in exposure rate. This is attributed in large part to promotion of intermediate lesions. Since model II is preferable on biological grounds (it yields a plausible cell-killing coefficient), such as uranium ore dust. This analysis presents evidence that a two-stage model describes the data adequately and generates hypotheses regarding the mechanism of radon-induced carcinogenesis.

NASA Program Radiation Health↗

Fuel Fabrication Specification Impact Analysis for NBSR LEU Conversion

As part of a national initiative to enhance nuclear security and reduce proliferation risks, significant efforts have been undertaken by the National Nuclear Security Administration Material Management and Minimization Office of Reactor Conversion Program to convert U.S. high performance research reactors (USHPRRs) from the use of highly enriched uranium (HEU) to low-enriched uranium (LEU), including the National Bureau of Standards Reactor (NBSR). The current plan is to procure LEU fuel assemblies from commercial fabricators according to fuel specifications tailored for each USHPRR. The analysis conducted at Brookhaven National Laboratory was part of an effort to identify the sources of uncertainty in the fuel specifications that may impact the performance of the NBSR core after its conversion and, in particular, to assess the range of acceptable tolerance limits from the perspective of core safety and reactor performance. Using the stochastic neutronics code MCNP 6.2, the variations in important NBSR neutronics characteristics were analyzed as a function of the specification parameters independently and in combination. The important NBSR specification parameters analyzed were the fuel isotopic composition, the amount of impurity content in cladding, the fuel plate thickness, and the fuel element 235U mass loading. The range of variation of each specification parameter was based on the technical specification limit or available as-fabricated assay data and uncertainties. The NBSR neutronics characteristics selected for analysis were the reactor reactivity characteristics at equilibrium and the equilibrium fuel cycle length. Results show that with variations in the fabrication parameters of the as-fabricated U-10Mo fuel within the specification limitations, the excess reactivity of the NBSR LEU core remains well below the 15% Δk/k technical specification limit, and the shutdown margin is always significantly greater than the required 0.68% Δk/k. This ensures that the NBSR can be operated safely and reliably shut down for all analyzed cases within the specified fabrication limits after the LEU conversion. In the prototypic case, the fuel cycle length was 1.5 days longer than the targeted 38.5 days. In a credible worst-case scenario, where all low-reactivity parameters were combined, the fuel cycle length was reduced to 35.5 days, which is still considered manageable for reactor operations. Variations in cycle length are primarily driven by changes in 235U loading, with other parameters having secondary effects.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Assignment of Freight Traffic in a Large-scale Intermodal Network under Uncertainty

This paper presents a methodology for freight traffic assignment in a large-scale road-rail intermodal network under uncertainty. Network uncertainties caused by natural disasters have dramatically increased in recent years. Several of these disasters (e.g., Hurricane Sandy, Mississippi River Flooding, and Hurricane Harvey) severely disrupted the U.S. freight transportation network, and consequently, the supply chain. To account for these network uncertainties, a stochastic freight traffic assignment model is formulated. An algorithmic framework, involving the sample average approximation and gradient projection algorithm, is proposed to solve this challenging problem. The developed methodology is tested on the U.S. intermodal network with freight flow data from the Freight Analysis Framework. The experiments consider three types of natural disasters that have different risks and impacts on transportation networks: earthquakes, hurricanes, and floods. It is found that for all disaster scenarios, freight ton-miles are higher compared to the base case without uncertainty. The increase in freight ton-miles is the highest under the flooding scenario; this is because there are more states in the flood-risk areas, and they are scattered throughout the U.S.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Limited variance control in statistical low thrust guidance analysis

Difficulties arise in guiding a solar electric propulsion spacecraft due to nongravitational accelerations caused by random fluctuations in the magnitude and direction of the thrust vector. These difficulties may be handled by using a low thrust guidance law based on the linear-quadratic-Gaussian problem of stochastic control theory with a minimum terminal miss performance criterion. Explicit constraints are imposed on the variances of the control parameters, and an algorithm based on the Hilbert space extension of a parameter optimization method is presented for calculation of gains in the guidance law. The terminal navigation of a 1980 flyby mission to the comet Encke is used as an example.

Jacobson, R. A.↗

Large-scale atomistic model construction of subbituminous and bituminous coals for solvent extraction simulations with reactive molecular dynamics

Large-scale atomistic models for complex polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon systems help understand the chemical properties and behaviors of complex feedstocks such as coal or petroleum. However, the development and utilization of large-scale models remain limited due to the difficulty in achieving the varied structural characteristics necessary to capture stochastic nature of these feedstocks. Here we demonstrate a systematic workflow to construct stochastic molecular systems from a broad analytical suite: high-resolution transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM), carbon-13 nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy ( 13 C NMR), laser desorption ionization mass spectroscopy (LDI-MS), and elemental analysis. We present a model construction and analysis utility of a new Python-based module. We selected one subbituminous and three high-volatile bituminous coals to construct large-scale models (~40,000 atoms). The constructed models were utilized to examine the affinity for solvent extraction (naphthalene or tetralin) and the effect of structural properties (e.g., aromatic cluster size, functional groups, and cross-linking) in reactive molecular dynamics simulations. Complex chemical reactions were monitored with bond order transitions, intermediates formation, and mass distributions. Reactive molecular dynamics simulations suggest a plausible chemical extraction process and products for the complex fossil feedstocks. The results indicated that radical formations with bond breaking of bridging oxygens and carbons were required at high temperatures to facilitate hydrogeneration and extraction of gas molecules from radical-free molecules. We observed that aliphatic chains of tetralin were easily decomposed and combined with radicals to form small size of molecules with aryl bonding, mainly increasing molecules in the 500–1000 Da, while naphthalene had little impact on chemical extraction process.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Task-oriented machine learning surrogates for tipping points of agent-based models

We present a machine learning framework bridging manifold learning, neural networks, Gaussian processes, and Equation-Free multiscale approach, for the construction of different types of effective reduced order models from detailed agent-based simulators and the systematic multiscale numerical analysis of their emergent dynamics. The specific tasks of interest here include the detection of tipping points, and the uncertainty quantification of rare events near them. Our illustrative examples are an event-driven, stochastic financial market model describing the mimetic behavior of traders, and a compartmental stochastic epidemic model on an Erdös-Rényi network. We contrast the pros and cons of the different types of surrogate models and the effort involved in learning them. Importantly, the proposed framework reveals that, around the tipping points, the emergent dynamics of both benchmark examples can be effectively described by a one-dimensional stochastic differential equation, thus revealing the intrinsic dimensionality of the normal form of the specific type of the tipping point. This allows a significant reduction in the computational cost of the tasks of interest.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Probing physics beyond the standard model: limits from BBN and the CMB independently and combined

We present new Big Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN) limits on the cosmic expansion rate or relativistic energy density, quantified via the number N ν of equivalent neutrino species. We use the latest light element observations, neutron mean lifetime, and update our evaluation for the nuclear rates d + d → 3 He + n and d + d → 3 H+p. Combining this result with the independent constraints from the cosmic microwave background (CMB) yields tight limits on new physics that perturbs N ν and η prior to cosmic nucleosynthesis: a joint BBN+CMB analysis gives N ν = 2.898 ± 0.141, resulting in N ν < 3.180 at 2σ. We apply these limits to a wide variety of new physics scenarios including right-handed neutrinos, dark radiation, and a stochastic gravitational wave background. The strength of the independent BBN and CMB constraints now opens a new window: we can search for limits on potential changes in N ν and/or the baryon-to-photon ratio η between the two epochs. The present data place strong constraints on the allowed changes in N ν between BBN and CMB decoupling; for example, we find -0.708 < N ν CMB - N ν BBN < 0.328 in the case where η and the primordial helium mass fraction Yp are unchanged between the two epochs; we also give limits on the allowed variations in η or in (η, N ν ) jointly. We discuss scenarios in which such changes could occur, and show that BBN+CMB results combine to place important constraints on some early dark energy models to explain the H 0 tension. Looking to the future, we forecast the tightened precision for N ν arising from both CMB Stage 4 measurements as well as improvements in astronomical 4 He measurements. Here, we find that CMB-S4 combined with present BBN and light element observation precision can give σ(N ν ) ≃ 0.03. Such future precision would reveal the expected effect of neutrino heating (N eff -3 = 0.044) of the CMB during BBN, and would be near the level to reveal any particle species ever in thermal equilibrium with the standard model. Improved Y p measurements can push this precision even further.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Cassio Simulations of X-ray Flow Over Lumps (XFOL) Experiments [Slides]

Homogeneous media is not a good approximation for stochastic media with large clump sizes and therefore not valid for our experiments. The media created for these experiments is not Markovian distributed. Stochastic media transport methods don’t work well with non-Markovian mixtures. Sphere at various axial locations in the dmain encounter very different radflow characteristics and therefore result in different spectroscopic signatures. Ongoing analysis of tally surfaces will allow for better characterization of the radiation flow in radiation hydrodynamics simulations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

X-ray Computed Tomography as a Metrology Technique for the Analysis of Additively Manufactured Material

X-ray computed tomography (X-ray CT) is an analytical technique used in materials science to non-destructively characterize features in a variety materials like polymer, metals, composites, and explosives. It also has the capability of imaging additively manufacture, machine and assembled parts. The non-destructive imaging allows for the analysis of features (voids and cracks), which give a fundamental understanding of the material characteristics. Additionally, X-ray CT can obtain accurate measurements of dimensional and topographic variations due to different stimuli and assess the accuracy of material production. This study focuses on parts manufactured via metal additive manufacturing (AM). Although AM produces parts faster and easier, the printing process can produce defects (pores and surface roughness) that undermine the part’s mechanical properties and performance. The analysis of 3D printed objects has an asset in that the material has an STL file from which the item was printed, which is not available in many manufactured materials (i.e., foams) due to stochastic structures. For this study, the print accuracy of four additively manufactured cylinders will be assessed via X-ray CTto approximate the surface roughness and visualize any major morphological changes to assess the dimensional accuracy of complex additively manufactured parts. It was concluded that using X-ray CT to measure surface roughness was affective because reasonable surface roughness values were measured. Additionally, itwas determined that small-scale features can be produced via additive manufacturing with strong dimensional accuracy so long as the features are highly complex with sharp grooves.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Testing a dynamical model for mid-latitude sea surface temperature anomalies

The present investigation is concerned with the development and testing of a dynamical model for sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the midlatitudes. The model is an extension of the stochastic forcing model, suggested by Frankignoul and Hasselmann (1977), in which SST anomalies arise naturally as a response of the slowly varying upper ocean to the rapidly varying air-sea fluxes. The conducted analysis confirms strongly the validity of this model. The results suggest that advection by mean ocean currents plays an important role in some regions. Attention is given to the governing equations, a statistical model, SST anomaly advection, heat flux anomalies, wind-driven mass transport in the mixed layer, mixed-layer depth, aspects of model testing, and the atmospheric forcing.

Frankignoul, C.↗

Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods (PSAM) for select space propulsion system components, part 2

The technical effort and computer code enhancements performed during the sixth year of the Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods program are summarized. Various capabilities are described to probabilistically combine structural response and structural resistance to compute component reliability. A library of structural resistance models is implemented in the Numerical Evaluations of Stochastic Structures Under Stress (NESSUS) code that included fatigue, fracture, creep, multi-factor interaction, and other important effects. In addition, a user interface was developed for user-defined resistance models. An accurate and efficient reliability method was developed and was successfully implemented in the NESSUS code to compute component reliability based on user-selected response and resistance models. A risk module was developed to compute component risk with respect to cost, performance, or user-defined criteria. The new component risk assessment capabilities were validated and demonstrated using several examples. Various supporting methodologies were also developed in support of component risk assessment.

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