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DOE OSTI2025

PV Fleet Performance Data Initiative Final Technical Report (FTR)

Improved analysis and reporting of photovoltaic (PV) field performance increases the certainty of owners and financiers that systems will perform as expected. Advanced module technologies (e.g., PERC, HJT, and bifacial) introduce new degradation mechanisms and performance characteristics. This project will leverage data from the ever-increasing PV fleet to develop models and understanding of the field performance of existing and new technologies. Please see our list of public reports at https://www.nrel.gov/pv/fleet-performance-data-initiative.html. Objective 1: Support the global PV industry with scalable, robust data analysis tools that reduce the uncertainty of PV system performance and loss calculation. Objective 2: Reduce perceived risk arising from degradation rate, soiling loss, and system availability by publishing detailed statistics on U.S. fleet performance. Objective 3: Highlight factors leading to system underperformance including module type, climate, mounting configuration, etc. Objective 4: Enable continued high system performance in modern PV systems, as turnover and advances in technology bring new suppliers and high-efficiency modules into the market.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1988

Polarimetric microwave scattering from known randomly rough surfaces

Scattering from rough surfaces is reviewed, and artificial randomly rough surfaces are described. Measurements were made from 4 to 18 GHz for the 4 linear polarization states. The target consists of a metalized randomly rough surface constructed from known surface statistical information. The surface was generated using surface generation routines on the computer, and then the data was converted for the machining of the surface on a computer controlled mill. Bistatic and monostatic measurements were acquired at incident angles from 25 to 60 deg. At the 13.5 to 18 GHz frequencies, the effects of backscatter enhancement and depolarization effects can be studied in a regime which does not satisfy Kirchoff or small perturbation assumptions. This allows scattering mechanisms to be introduced into models, which may show missing elements in the more standard formulations. At lower frequency bands such as 4 to 8.5 GHz the scattering behavior was also examined to see the behavior as assumptions of other formulations are satisfied.

Nance, C. E.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty-Aware, Structure-Preserving Machine Learning Approach for Domain Shift Detection From Nonlinear Dynamic Responses of Structural Systems

Complex structural systems deployed for aerospace, civil, or mechanical applications must operate reliably under varying operational conditions. Structural health monitoring (SHM) systems help ensure the reliability of these systems by providing continuous monitoring of the state of the structure. SHM relies on synthesizing measured data with a predictive model to make informed decisions about structural states. However, these models—which may be thought of as a form of a digital twin—need to be updated continuously as structural changes (e.g., due to damage) arise. We propose an uncertainty-aware machine learning model that enforces distance preservation of the original input state space and then encodes a distance-aware mechanism via a Gaussian process (GP) kernel. The proposed approach leverages the spectral-normalized neural GP algorithm to combine the flexibility of neural networks with the advantages of GP, subjected to structure-preserving constraints, to produce an uncertainty-aware model. This model is used to detect domain shift due to structural changes that cannot be observed directly because they may be spatially isolated (e.g., inside a joint or localized damage). This work leverages detection theory to detect domain shift systematically given statistical features of the prediction variance produced by the model. The proposed approach is demonstrated on a nonlinear structure being subjected to damage conditions. In conclusion, it is shown that the proposed approach is able to rely on distances of the transformed input state space to predict increased variance in shifted domains while being robust to normative changes.

Algorithms↗

NASA NTRS1984

Ablation effects in oxygen-lead fragmentation at 2.1 GeV/nucleon

The mechanism of particle evaporation was used to examine ablation effects in the fragmentation of 2.1 GeV/nucleon oxygen nuclei by lead targets. Following the initial abrasion process, the excited projectile prefragment is assumed to statistically decay in a manner analogous to that of a compound nucleus. The decay probabilities for the various particle emission channels are calculated by using the EVAP-4 Monte Carlo computer program. The input excitation energy spectrum for the prefragment is estimated from the geometric ""clean cut'' abrasion-ablation model. Isotope production cross sections are calculated and compared with experimental data and with the predictions from the standard geometric abrasion-ablation fragmentation model.

Townsend, L. W.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Debris Flux Comparisons From The Goldstone Radar, Haystack Radar, and Hax Radar Prior, During, and After the Last Solar Maximum

The continual monitoring of low Earth orbit (LEO) debris environment using highly sensitive radars is essential for an accurate characterization of these dynamic populations. Debris populations are continually evolving since there are new debris sources, previously unrecognized debris sources, and debris loss mechanisms that are dependent on the dynamic space environment. Such radar data are used to supplement, update, and validate existing orbital debris models. NASA has been utilizing radar observations of the debris environment for over a decade from three complementary radars: the NASA JPL Goldstone radar, the MIT Lincoln Laboratory (MIT/LL) Long Range Imaging Radar (known as the Haystack radar), and the MIT/LL Haystack Auxiliary radar (HAX). All of these systems are highly sensitive radars that operate in a fixed staring mode to statistically sample orbital debris in the LEO environment. Each of these radars is ideally suited to measure debris within a specific size region. The Goldstone radar generally observes objects with sizes from 2 mm to 1 cm. The Haystack radar generally measures from 5 mm to several meters. The HAX radar generally measures from 2 cm to several meters. These overlapping size regions allow a continuous measurement of cumulative debris flux versus diameter from 2 mm to several meters for a given altitude window. This is demonstrated for all three radars by comparing the debris flux versus diameter over 200 km altitude windows for 3 nonconsecutive years from 1998 through 2003. These years correspond to periods before, during, and after the peak of the last solar cycle. Comparing the year to year flux from Haystack for each of these altitude regions indicate statistically significant changes in subsets of the debris populations. Potential causes of these changes are discussed. These analysis results include error bars that represent statistical sampling errors, and are detailed in this paper.

Stokely, C. L.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Predicting Thermochemical Equilibria with Interacting Defects: Sr 1 − x Ce x Mn O 3 − δ Alloys for Water Splitting

Solar thermochemical hydrogen is one of the few potential routes towards direct fuel production from renewable energy sources, but the thermodynamic boundary conditions for efficient and economic energy conversion are challenging. Success or failure of a given oxide working material depends on the subtle balance between enthalpy and entropy contributions in the redox processes. Developing a mechanistic understanding of the behavior of materials on the basis of atomistic models and first-principles calculations is an important part of advancing the technology. One challenge is to quantitatively predict thermochemical equilibria at high concentrations when the redox-active defects start to interact with each other, thereby impeding the formation of additional defects. This problem is of more general importance to applications that rely on high levels of off-stoichiometry or doping, including, for example, batteries, thermoelectrics, and ceramic fuel cells. To account for such repulsive defect interactions, we introduce a statistical mechanics approach, defining an expression for the free energy of defect interaction based on limited sampling of defect configurations in density functional theory supercell calculations. The parameterization of this energy contribution as a function of defect concentration and temperature allows on-the-fly simulation of thermochemical equilibria. The approach consistently incorporates finite temperature effects by including the leading contributions to the temperature-dependent free energy for the case at hand, i.e., the ideal gas and configurational enthalpies and entropies. We demonstrate the capability and utility of the approach by simulating the water splitting redox processes for Sr 1 − x Ce x Mn O 3 − δ alloys. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

08 HYDROGEN↗

NASA NTRS1979

Numerical and laboratory simulation of fault motion and earthquake occurrence

This paper reviews the simulation of earthquake occurrence by numerical and laboratory mechanical block models. Simple linear rheological elements are used with elastic forces driving the main events and viscoelastic forces being important for aftershock and creep occurrence. Friction and its dependence on velocity, stress, and displacement also play a key role in determining how, when, and where fault motion occurs. The discussion of the qualitative behavior of the simulators focuses on the manner in which energy is stored in the system and released by the unstable and stable sliding processes. The numerical results emphasize the statistics of earthquake occurrence and the correlations among source parameters.

Cohen, S. C.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Long-life assessment of graphite epoxy materials for Space Station Freedom pressure vessels

Graphite/epoxy composite overwrapped pressure vessels are being considered for use on Space Station Freedom because of their light weight and high efficiency. These composite pressure vessels weigh roughly one-third of comparable all-metal aluminum pressure vessels, and could result in a 15,000-lb weight saving for the propulsion and fluid management and distribution systems. These vessels must resist failures under sustained pressure loads for crew safety considerations and adequate protection of the space structure during their 30-yr life. Weibull statistical analysis techniques have been applied, and a model developed, for predicting long-term stress-rupture behavior based on published short-term test data on composite strands and pressure vessels. Graphite/epoxy materials are calculated to have a 99.99-percent probability of surviving stress rupture for 30 yr under a sustained load of 50 percent ultimate failure strength. Stress-rupture lifetimes are predicted to increase as the size of the pressure vessels increases in support of the viscoelastic load-transfer mechanism proposed for stress rupture of fiber/epoxy composite materials.

Thomas, Donald A.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Critical statistical assessment of data in metal additive manufacturing

Obtaining high quality data reflecting the relationships between the additive manufacturing (AM) process parameters, material microstructure and mechanical properties is crucial for the use of machine learning in AM. A database of over 4,000 data entries of metal AM was created thanks to a large number of literature studies on key process parameters and indicators of build quality. Meta-analysis reveals critical biases in the literature. Firstly, majority of studies report only high quality builds, these imbalances in reporting result in weak correlation between process parameters, properties and consolidation, limiting the ability of machine learning models to generalize beyond optimized conditions. Nevertheless, the trained models accurately predict yield strength ($R^2 = 0.85$), suggesting that certain process–property relationships are effectively captured within these models. Secondly, quantitative microstructural data are largely absent, limiting the learning of the microstructure-mechanical properties relationships. Finally, current process window identification is based largely on the consolidation, despite significant uncertainty in its measurement. It is important to identify the process map on the basis of not only the consolidation, but also mechanical behaviour under loading. Such a identification shows that 316 L and Inconel have much larger process map (i.e. highly printable) in comparison to the AlSi10Mg and Ti6Al4V.

Additive manufacturing↗

DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian inference for plasmonic nanometrology

Here, we introduce a Bayesian method for the characterization of plasmonic nanoparticles, which is applicable to both near- and far-field problems. Designed to combine data generated from any photon-plasmon interaction experiment with physically motivated theoretical models, our approach leverages state-of-the-art Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling techniques and returns parameter estimates on nanometric scales. Simulated spectral data sets, describing resonant scattering of photons from ellipsoidal and toroidal nanoparticles, are explored as concrete examples of our approach, with the resulting Bayesian estimates showing excellent agreement with the ground truth, even under conditions of high statistical noise. By incorporating Bayes factors into the method as well, we reveal how model selection can determine which one of competing geometric shapes better explains the observed data. Our comprehensive nanometrology procedure can be tailored to a variety of light-particle interaction models, and its reliance on Bayesian inference furnishes automatic uncertainty quantification. In addition to applicability to a host of plasmonic configurations such as nanoparticle dimers, trimers, and array studies, it is proposed that the presented analysis can be extended to the quantum regime, where nonclassical photon statistics may provide additional insight for inference of scatterer properties.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

NASA NTRS1986

Dynamic remapping of parallel computations with varying resource demands

A large class of computational problems is characterized by frequent synchronization, and computational requirements which change as a function of time. When such a problem must be solved on a message passing multiprocessor machine, the combination of these characteristics lead to system performance which decreases in time. Performance can be improved with periodic redistribution of computational load; however, redistribution can exact a sometimes large delay cost. We study the issue of deciding when to invoke a global load remapping mechanism. Such a decision policy must effectively weigh the costs of remapping against the performance benefits. We treat this problem by constructing two analytic models which exhibit stochastically decreasing performance. One model is quite tractable; we are able to describe the optimal remapping algorithm, and the optimal decision policy governing when to invoke that algorithm. However, computational complexity prohibits the use of the optimal remapping decision policy. We then study the performance of a general remapping policy on both analytic models. This policy attempts to minimize a statistic W(n) which measures the system degradation (including the cost of remapping) per computation step over a period of n steps. We show that as a function of time, the expected value of W(n) has at most one minimum, and that when this minimum exists it defines the optimal fixed-interval remapping policy. Our decision policy appeals to this result by remapping when it estimates that W(n) is minimized. Our performance data suggests that this policy effectively finds the natural frequency of remapping. We also use the analytic models to express the relationship between performance and remapping cost, number of processors, and the computation's stochastic activity.

Nicol, D. M.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Compression behavior of microcrystalline cellulose spheres: Single particle compression and confined bulk compression across regimes

Particle characteristics can drastically influence the process-structure-property-performance aspects of granular materials in compression. In this study, we aim to computationally simulate the mechanical processes of stress redistribution in compacts including the kinematics of particle rearrangement during densification and particle deformation leading to fragmentation. Confined compression experiments are conducted with three sets of commercial microcrystalline cellulose particles nearly spherical in shape with different mean particle size. Experimentally measured compression curves from tall powder columns are fitted with the Kenkre et al. (J. of American Chemical Society, Vol. 79, No. 12) model. This model provides a basis to derive several common two-parameter literature models and as a framework to incorporate statistical representations of critical particle behaviors. We focus on the low-stress compression data and the model comparisons typically not discussed in the literature. Furthermore, additional single particle compressions report fracture strength with particle size for comparison to the apparent particle strength extracted from bulk compression data.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Quantum scars of bosons with correlated hopping

Abstract Recent experiments on Rydberg atom arrays have found evidence of anomalously slow thermalization and persistent density oscillations, which have been interpreted as a many-body analog of the phenomenon of quantum scars. Periodic dynamics and atypical scarred eigenstates originate from a “hard” kinetic constraint: the neighboring Rydberg atoms cannot be simultaneously excited. Here we propose a realization of quantum many-body scars in a 1D bosonic lattice model with a “soft” constraint in the form of density-assisted hopping. We discuss the relation of this model to the standard Bose-Hubbard model and possible experimental realizations using ultracold atoms. We find that this model exhibits similar phenomenology to the Rydberg atom chain, including weakly entangled eigenstates at high energy densities and the presence of a large number of exact zero energy states, with distinct algebraic structure.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2020

Comparison of fixed charge and polarizable models for predicting the structural, thermodynamic, and transport properties of molten alkali chlorides

Results from extensive molecular dynamics simulations of molten LiCl, NaCl, KCl, and RbCl over a wide range of temperatures are reported. Comparison is made between the “Polarizable Ion Model” (PIM) and the non-polarizable “Rigid Ion Model” (RIM). Densities, self-diffusivities, shear viscosities, ionic conductivities, and thermal conductivities are computed and compared with experimental data. In addition, radial distribution functions are computed from ab initio molecular dynamics simulations and compared with the two sets of classical simulations as well as experimental data. Here, the two classical models perform reasonably well at capturing structural and dynamic properties of the four molten alkali chlorides, both qualitatively and often quantitatively. With the singular exception of liquid density, for which the PIM is more accurate than the RIM, there are few clear trends to suggest that one model is more accurate than the other for the four alkali halide systems studied here.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Employing Fracture Statistics to Track Cell Reliability Through Module Fabrication

In this work we demonstrate how fracture statistics may be employed to track cell reliability through module fabrication steps. We were able to detect how cell cutting equipment could reduce cell fracture strain by 25 % as well as increase its variability. A smaller reduction was found to result from the ribbon soldering operation, and all cells measured were weaker when strained in an orientation perpendicular to the gridlines. Cell fracture measurements were found to be consistent with the number of cracked cells experienced in full sized modules exposed to mechanical loading. A structural mechanics model was created to elucidate how the requisite fracture strain is developed in a cell encapsulated within a PV module and demonstrates that this strain decreases more than 50 % from its center to edge when placed within the inner loading span of four-point flexure. The associated implications on the apparent cell strength is examined with an effective volume treatment.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

DOE OSTI2022

Implications of Microstructure in Helium-Implanted Nanocrystalline Metals

Helium bubbles are known to form in nuclear reactor structural components when displacement damage occurs in conjunction with helium exposure and/or transmutation. If left unchecked, bubble production can cause swelling, blistering, and embrittlement, all of which substantially degrade materials and—moreover—diminish mechanical properties. On the mission to produce more robust materials, nanocrystalline (NC) metals show great potential and are postulated to exhibit superior radiation resistance due to their high defect and particle sink densities; however, much is still unknown about the mechanisms of defect evolution in these systems under extreme conditions. Here, the performances of NC nickel (Ni) and iron (Fe) are investigated under helium bombardment via transmission electron microscopy (TEM). Bubble density statistics are measured as a function of grain size in specimens implanted under similar conditions. While the overall trends revealed an increase in bubble density up to saturation in both samples, bubble density in Fe was over 300% greater than in Ni. To interrogate the kinetics of helium diffusion and trapping, a rate theory model is developed that substantiates that helium is more readily captured within grains in helium-vacancy complexes in NC Fe, whereas helium is more prone to traversing the grain matrices and migrating to GBs in NC Ni. Our results suggest that (1) grain boundaries can affect bubble swelling in grain matrices significantly and can have a dominant effect over crystal structure, and (2) an NC-Ni-based material can yield superior resistance to irradiation-induced bubble growth compared to an NC-Fe-based material and exhibits high potential for use in extreme environments where swelling due to He bubble formation is of significant concern.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Spacesuit Reach Capability and Work Volume Assessment

Work volumes and reach envelopes define the locations where work objects or interfaces can be placed around a person to reduce ergonomic risk. Spacesuits, however, show unique reach patterns, due to the stiffness and mechanical constraints from pressurization. This study measured the reach motion patterns and capabilities from subjects wearing a pressurized spacesuit using a 3D motion capture system. The subjects performed arm and hand motions, focusing on extreme lateral and vertical positions. These motions defined the maximum ranges. They also performed on-suit reaches to measure where they could or couldn’t reach on the suit surface to determine where critical controls and devices could be placed on the suit. A parametric model of the reach volume was statistically built using the collected hand position data. The observed shape and size of the work volume substantially vary by persons, depending on anthropometry and strength capability. It was also indicated that the traditional metrics (e.g., simple spherical or cylindrical representations) estimated from “unsuited” persons or computer simulations may not accurately capture such variations. The results of this study can help to design and optimize space hardware and task activities, to protect crewmembers from overexertion or injuries.

Han Kim↗

DOE OSTI2021

Employing Fracture Statistics to Track Cell Reliability Through Module Fabrication

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗