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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Sea Ice and Cloud Processes Mediating Compensation between Atmospheric and Oceanic Meridional Heat Transports across the CMIP6 Preindustrial Control Experiment

Abstract Bjerknes compensation (BJC) refers to the anticorrelation observed between atmospheric and oceanic heat transport (AHT/OHT) variability, particularly on decadal to longer time scales that may be important to the predictability of the climate system. This study investigates the spread in BJC across fully coupled simulations of phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and critical processes (particularly related to sea ice and clouds) that may contribute to that spread. BJC on decadal to longer time scales is confirmed across all the simulations evaluated, and it is strongest in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) between 60° and 70°N. At these latitudes, BJC appears to be primarily driven by the exchange of turbulent fluxes (sensible and latent) in the Greenland, Iceland, and Barents Seas. Metrics to break down how sea ice and clouds uniquely modify the radiative balance of the polar atmosphere during anomalous OHT events are presented. These metrics quantify the impacts of sea ice and clouds on surface and top of atmosphere (latent, sensible, longwave, and shortwave radiative) energy fluxes. Cloud responses tend to counter the clear sky impacts over the Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ). It is further shown that the degree of BJC present in a simulation at high latitudes is heavily influenced by the sensitivity of the sea ice to OHT, which is most influential over the MIZ. These results are qualitatively robust across models and explain the intermodel spread in NH BJC in the preindustrial control experiment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Going Forward with the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope Transient Survey: Validation of Precision Forward-modeling Photometry for Undersampled Imaging

The Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope (Roman) is an observatory for both wide-field observations and coronagraphy that is scheduled for launch in the mid-2020s. Part of the planned survey is a deep, cadenced field or fields that enable cosmological measurements with type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia). With a pixel scale of 0$_.^"$11, the Wide Field Instrument will be undersampled, presenting a difficulty for precisely subtracting the galaxy light underneath the SNe. We use simulated data to validate the ability of a forward-model code (such codes are frequently also called “scene-modeling” codes) to perform precision supernova photometry for the Roman SN survey. Our simulation includes over 760,000 image cutouts around SNe Ia or host galaxies (~10% of a full-scale survey). To have a realistic 2D distribution of underlying galaxy light, we use the VELA simulated high-resolution images of galaxies. We run each set of cutouts through our forward-modeling code which automatically measures time-dependent SN fluxes. Given our assumed inputs of a perfect model of the instrument point-spread functions and calibration, we find biases at the millimagnitude level from this method in four red filters (Y106, J129, H158, and F184), easily meeting the 0.5% Roman inter-filter calibration requirement for a cutting-edge measurement of cosmological parameters using SNe Ia. Simulated data in the bluer Z087 filter shows larger ~ 2–3 mmg biases, also meeting this requirement, but with more room for improvement. Our forward-model code has been released on Zenodo.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Ion shock acceleration by large amplitude slow ion acoustic double layers in laser-produced plasmas

A kinetic model for the shock acceleration of ions in laser-produced plasmas is developed. A fraction of the warm ions are accelerated by the large amplitude monotonic potential of the shock created due the plasma compression and electron heating by the laser. The kinetic model for the monotonic shock is based on the slow ion acoustic double layer (SIADL). It is found that the amplitude of the large amplitude SIADL is almost uniquely defined by the electron temperature. Therefore, a balance between electron heating and plasma compression is needed for optimal ion acceleration by this scheme. Typical Mach numbers of the monotonic shocks are close to 1.5. The scheme could potentially produce monoenergetic ions with a relative energy spread of less than 1%. The model is compared with recent simulations and experiments, where efficient shocks acceleration and production of monoenergetic protons have been observed. Similarities and differences with other shock models are pointed out and discussed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Inferring the spread of COVID-19: the role of time-varying reporting rate in epidemiological modelling

The role of epidemiological models is crucial for informing public health officials during a public health emergency, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. However, traditional epidemiological models fail to capture the time-varying effects of mitigation strategies and do not account for under-reporting of active cases, thus introducing bias in the estimation of model parameters. To infer more accurate parameter estimates and to reduce the uncertainty of these estimates, we extend the SIR and SEIR epidemiological models with two time-varying parameters that capture the transmission rate and the rate at which active cases are reported to health officials. Using two real data sets of COVID-19 cases, we perform Bayesian inference via our SIR and SEIR models with time-varying transmission and reporting rates and via their standard counterparts with constant rates; our approach provides parameter estimates with more realistic interpretation, and 1-week ahead predictions with reduced uncertainty. Furthermore, we find consistent under-reporting in the number of active cases in the data that we consider, suggesting that the initial phase of the pandemic was more widespread than previously reported.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1980

Remote estimation of the surface characteristics and energy balance over an urban-rural area and the effects of surface heat flux on plume spread and concentration

A one dimensional boundary layer model was used in conjunction with satellite derived infrared surface temperatures to deduce values of moisture availability, thermal inertia, heat and evaporative fluxes. The Penn State satellite image display system, a sophisticated image display facility, was used to remotely sense these various parameters for three cases: St. Louis, Missouri; the Land Between the Lakes, Kentucky; and Clarksville, Tennessee. The urban centers displayed the maximum daytime surface temperatures which correspond to the minimum values of moisture availability. The urban center of St. Louis and the bodies of water displayed the maximum nighttime surface temperatures which correspond to the maximum thermal inertia values. It is shown that moisture availability and thermal inertia are very much responsible for the formation of important temperature variations over the urban rural complex.

Dicristofaro, D. C.↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Generalization of Threshold-Based and Probability-Based Models of Information Diffusion

Diffusion of information through complex networks is of interest in studies such as propagation prediction and influence maximization, both of which have applications in viral marketing and rumor controlling. There are a variety of information diffusion models, all of which simulate the adoption and spread of information over time. However, there is a lack of understanding of whether, despite their conceptual differences, these models represent the same underlying generative structures. For instance, if two different models utilize different conceptual mechanisms, but generate the same results, does the choice of model matter? A classification of diffusion of information models is developed based on the neighbor knowledge of the model infection requirement and the stochasticity of the model. This classification allows for the identification of models that fall into each respective category. The study involves the analysis of the following agent-based models on directed scale-free networks: (1) a linear absolute threshold model (LATM), (2) a linear fractional threshold model (LTFM), (3) the independent cascade model (ICM), (4) Bass-Rand-Rust model (BRRM) (5) a stochastic linear absolute threshold model (SLATM) (6) a stochastic fractional threshold model (SLFTM), and (7) Dodds–Watts model (DWM). Through the execution of simulations and analysis of the experimental results, the distinctive properties of each model are identified. Our analysis reveals that similarity in conceptual design does not imply similarity in behavior concerning speed, final state of nodes and edges, and sensitivity to parameters. Therefore, we highlight the importance of considering the unique behavioral characteristics of each model when selecting a suitable information diffusion model for a particular application.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Use of an Alternative Conceptual Model of Vadose Zone Heterogeneity to Evaluate Past Tank Leaks and Other Unplanned Releases within a Tank Farm at the Hanford Site - 20061

Washington State Department of Ecology (Ecology) requested that U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)-Office of River Protection (ORP) consider an evaluation of effects of fine-grained thin sediment layers on transport with a separate alternative conceptual model in its evaluation of the potential impact of tank leaks and other unplanned releases within the tank farm at the Hanford Site. For this alternative model, Ecology recommended that the model be developed based on the general framework of fine-grained units identified by a stakeholder group in their interpretations of variability in moisture content data collected in the vicinity of Waste Management Area (WMA) C. In discussions with DOE-ORP, Ecology acknowledged that the underlying data and interpretations of the occurrence and lateral continuity of the fine-grained thin layers identified by a stakeholder group are uncertain. However, DOE-ORP agreed to Ecology's recommendation and has provided support for the requested evaluation that involved development of an alternative model based on the general framework of the unpublished report by the stakeholder. DOE-ORP considered this evaluation to be a hypothetical evaluation of vadose zone heterogeneities at WMA C. General observations from the range of simulation cases examined in the evaluation of the effects of hypothetical vadose zone heterogeneities at WMA C are as follows. - The movement of the center of mass of the simulated plumes was generally vertically downward below the source for all simulations, including those that incorporated the hypothetical fine-grained units. - All simulations that incorporated hypothetical heterogeneity produced additional plume spreading over what was produced in simulations using Equivalent Homogeneous Media (EHM) model(s)a. The spreading resulted in a broadening of the fringes of the plume, resulting in a wider region of low concentration, but lower peak concentrations associated with the center of mass of the plume. - Simulations that used the silty-sand hydraulic properties, suggested by Ecology for the hypothetical fine-grained units, generally produced similar spreading and slightly lower peak mass flux at the water table when compared to the EHM modeling results. a The EHM-based models used at WMA C do not explicitly include small-scale fine-grained heterogeneities used in the model advocated by Ecology. - Simulations that used the silty-sand hydraulic properties, suggested by Ecology for the hypothetical fine-grained units, generally produced less spreading and an earlier arrival of mass flux at the water table when compared to the use of another set of hydraulic properties from a silty-sand sample collected at a nearby disposal facility. - The EHM representation of the vadose zone generally produced higher peak mass flux and an earlier occurrence of peak fluxes at the water table compared to all analyses incorporating additional hypothetical heterogeneity. Results of this alternative model evaluation of past leaks provided some insight into the transport effects of vadose zone heterogeneities at WMA C that helped resolve Ecology's comments and issues related to the effects of vadose zone heterogeneities on past leaks and losses from the WMA C tank farms area. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRS2003

Modeling Study of Planetary Waves in the Mesosphere Lower Thermosphere (MLT)

For comparison with measurements from the TIMED satellite and coordinated ground based observations, we present results from our Numerical Spectral Model (NSM) that incorporates the Doppler Spread Parameterization (Hines, 1997) for small-scale gravity waves (GWs). We discuss the planetary waves (PWs) that are purely generated by dynamical interactions, i.e., without explicitly specifying excitation sources related for example to tropospheric convection or topography. With tropospheric heating that reproduces the observed zonal jets near the tropopause and the accompanying reversal in the latitudinal temperature variation, which is conducive to baroclinic instability, long period PWs are produced that propagate up into the stratosphere to affect the wave driven equatorial oscillations (QBO and SAO) extending into the upper mesosphere. The PWs in the model that dominate higher up in the MLT region, however, are to a large extent produced by instabilities under the influence of the zonal circulation and temperature variations in the middle atmosphere and they are amplified by GW interactions. Three classes of PWs are generated there. (1) Rossby waves that slowly propagate westward but are carried by the zonal mean (m = 0) winds to produce eastward and westward propagating PWs respectively in the winter and summer hemispheres below 80 km. Depending on the zonal wave number and magnitudes of the zonal winds under the influence of the equatorial oscillations, the PWs typically have periods between 2 and 20 days and their horizontal wind amplitudes can exceed 40 m/s in the lower mesosphere. (2) Rossby gravity waves that propagate westward at low latitudes, having periods around 2 days for zonal wave numbers m = 2 to 4. (3) Eastward propagating equatorial Kelvin waves generated in the upper mesosphere with periods between 2 and 3 days for m = 1 & 2. The seasonal variations of the PWs reveal that the largest wind amplitudes tend to occur below 80 km in the winter hemisphere, but above that altitude in the summer hemisphere to approach magnitudes as large as 50 m/s.

Mengel, J. G.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Computational predictions of flame spread over alcohol pools

The effects of buoyancy and thermocapillarity on pulsating and uniform flame spread above n-propanol fuel pools have been studied using a numerical model. Data obtained indicate that the existence of pulsating flame spread is dependent upon the formation of a gas-phase recirculation cell which entrains evaporating fuel vapor in front of the leading edge of the flame. The size of the recirculation cell which is affected by the extent of liquid motion ahead of the flame, is shown to dictate whether flame spread is uniform or pulsating. The amplitude and period of the flame pulsations are found to be proportional to the maximum extent of the flow head. Under conditions considered, liquid motion was not affected appreciably by buoyancy. Horizontal convection in the liquid is the dominant mechanism for transporting heat ahead of the flame for both the pulsating and uniform regimes.

Schiller, D. N.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Characterizing Speed and Scale of Cryptocurrency Discussion Spread on Reddit

Cryptocurrencies are a novel and disruptive technology that has prompted a new approach to how currencies work in the modern economy. As such, online discussions related to cryptocurrencies often go beyond posts about the technology and underlying architecture of the various coins, to subjective speculations of price fluctuations and predictions. Furthermore, online discussions, potentially driven by foreign adversaries, criminals or hackers, can have a significant impact on our economy and national security if spread at scale. This paper is the first to qualitatively measure and contrast discussion growth about three popular cryptocurrencies with key distinctions in motivation, usage, and implementation – Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Monero on Reddit. More specifically, we measure how discussions relevant to these coins spread in online social environments – how deep and how wide they go, how long they last, how many people they reach, etc. More importantly, we compare user behavior patterns between the focused community of the official coin subreddits and the general community across Reddit as a whole. Our Reddit sample covers three years of data between 2015 and 2018 and includes a time period of a record high Bitcoin price rise. Our results demonstrate that while the largest discussions on Reddit are focused on Bitcoin, posts about Monero (a cryptocurrency often used by criminals for illegal transactions on the Dark Web) start discussions that are typically longer and wider. Bitcoin posts trigger subsequent discussion more immediately but Monero posts are more likely to trigger a longer lasting discussion. We find that moderately subjective posts across all three coins trigger larger, longer, and more viral discussion cascades within both focused and general communities on Reddit. Our analysis aims to bring the awareness to online discussion spread relevant to cryptocurrencies in addition to informing models for forecasting cryptocurrency price that rely on discussions in social media.

information spread, social network analysis, reddi↗
NASA NTRS2000

Deterrent Concentration Measurement with FTIR and Subsequent Ballistic Performance in Medium Caliber Propellant

To meet ballistic requirements, medium and small caliber propellants use deterrent coatings to obtain burn rate progressivity. The required amount and distribution of deterrent varies between gun systems, propellant types, and often between lots. Micro Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy was used to measure deterrent gradients in RP36 propellants coated with methyl centralite (MC) at different deterrent levels and different processing conditions. The aromatic C-C bonds at 1496 cm(exp -1) wavenumber were used to monitor the deterrent profiles through the grain. Deterrent gradients measured with FTIR spectroscopy were then used to estimate burn rate gradients in the deterred grains. Burn rates were calculated from literature models and from closed bomb data of RP36 containing uniform deterrent concentration. Finally, the burn rate gradients were input into an IBHFG2 model of a 200 cc-closed bomb. The early flame spreading portion of the closed bomb ballistic cycle (0 to 0.2 P/Pmax) was roughly modeled by dividing the charge up into five propellant decks and igniting them at different times in the ballistic cycle. Pressure traces and vivacity curves from closed bomb shots were compared to predictions. In addition to the burn rate gradient, the closed bomb pressure trace was heavily dependent on ignition and flame spread. These two phenomena were not readily distinguishable from one another in deterred grains. The same RP-36 propellant was shot in a 25 mm M793TP round which was again modeled with IBHVG2. Peak pressure and muzzle velocity were accurately modeled when erosive burning effects were empirically factored into the model.

Furrow, Keith W.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impact of confined geometries on hopping and trapping of motile bacteria in porous media

We use a random walk particle-tracking (RWPT) approach to elucidate the impact of porous media confinement and cell-cell interactions on bacterial transport. The model employs stochastic alternating motility states consisting of hopping movement and trapping reorientation. The stochastic motility patterns are defined based on direct visualization of individual trajectory data. We validate our model against experimental data, at single-cell resolution, of bacterial E. coli motion in three-dimensional confined porous media. Results show that the model is able to efficiently simulate the spreading dynamics of motile bacteria as it captures the impact of cell-cell interaction and pore confinement, which marks the transition to a late-time subdiffusive regime. Furthermore, the model is able to qualitatively reproduce the observed directional persistence. Lastly, our RWPT model constitutes a meshless simple method which is easy to implement and does not invoke ad hoc assumptions but represents the basis for a multiscale approach to the study of bacterial dispersal in porous systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dynamics of Gas Bubbles From a Submarine Hydrocarbon Seep Within the Hydrate Stability Zone

We validate a new model for mass transfer and bubble transport for natural seeps on the continental margins using an integrated observation of a seep at 883 m in the Northern Gulf of Mexico. In the model, mass transfer is assumed to transition from clean to dirty bubble mass transfer rates following a characteristic hydrate formation time that depends on the initial bubble surface area and the hydrate subcooling. We show that buoyancy-induced upwelling is negligible for the bubble stream. We initialize the model using precise data observed at the seafloor and validate the model results to optical and acoustic measurements within the bubble stream. The model accurately predicts the acoustic attenuation of the bubble flare by lateral spreading and bubble shrinkage throughout the water column. In conclusion, the model shows that up to 99.4% by mass of the released gases from this seep dissolves into the ocean within the hydrate stability zone.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2015

The age and age spread of the Praesepe and Hyades clusters: A consistent, ∼800 Myr picture from rotating stellar models

We fit the upper main sequence of the Praesepe and Hyades open clusters using stellar models with and without rotation. When neglecting rotation, we find that no single isochrone can fit the entire upper main sequence at the clusters’ spectroscopic metallicity: more massive stars appear, at high significance, to be younger than less massive stars. This discrepancy is consistent with earlier studies, but vanishes when including stellar rotation. The entire upper main sequence of both clusters is very well-fit by a distribution of 800 Myr old stars with the spectroscopically measured [Fe/H] = 0.12. The increase over the consensus age of ∼600–650 Myr is due both to the revised solar metallicity (from Z{sub ⊙}≈0.02 to Z{sub ⊙}≈0.014) and to the lengthening of main-sequence lifetimes and increase in luminosities with rapid rotation. Our results show that rotation can remove the need for large age spreads in intermediate-age clusters, and that these clusters may be significantly older than is commonly accepted. A Hyades/Praesepe age of ∼800 Myr would also require a recalibration of rotation/activity age indicators.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2000

Modeling Planetary Waves in the Middle Atmosphere

In our 3D Numerical Spectral Model (NSM) that incorporates the Doppler Spread Parameterization of Hines, planetary waves are generated with zonal wavenumbers 1-4 that have amplitudes as large as 25 m/s and periods between 50 and 2 days. The waves are generated spontaneously, i.e., without external source, and presumably represent normal modes. Numerical experiments are discussed to shed light on the generation mechanisms. For the wavenumbers 1 and 2 with periods primarily between 4 and 15 days, both eastward and westward propagating waves are generated and their amplitudes are affected significantly by the gravity wave source. For the wavenumbers, 3 and 4 in the upper mesosphere, the waves are virtually monochromatic, with periods around 2.5 days and they propagate westward. These waves behave like Rossby gravity waves; their amplitudes are largest during solstice where the baroclinic instability is playing an important role, but the waves decay when the gravity wave momentum source is turned off. The planetary waves generated in the model produce large amplitude modulations of the diurnal tides at altitudes above 80 km, but contrary to expectations they are not playing an important role for the seasonal variations of the tides. Preliminary results show that such Rossby gravity waves are also generated near the tropopause and are influencing significantly the QBO that is generated in the model.

Mengel, J. G.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Identifiability and predictability of integer- and fractional-order epidemiological models using physics-informed neural networks

Here we analyze a plurality of epidemiological models through the lens of physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) that enable us to identify time-dependent parameters and data-driven fractional differential operators. In particular, we consider several variations of the classical susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) model by introducing more compartments and fractional-order and time-delay models. We report the results for the spread of COVID-19 in New York City, Rhode Island and Michigan states and Italy, by simultaneously inferring the unknown parameters and the unobserved dynamics. For integer-order and time-delay models, we fit the available data by identifying time-dependent parameters, which are represented by neural networks. In contrast, for fractional differential models, we fit the data by determining different time-dependent derivative orders for each compartment, which we represent by neural networks. We investigate the structural and practical identifiability of these unknown functions for different datasets, and quantify the uncertainty associated with neural networks and with control measures in forecasting the pandemic.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1985

Working group on chromospheric fields - Canopies

Although there are many points of uncertainty and controversy, the working group on chromospheric fields focussed its discussion on the concept of canopies; i.e., no one disagreed that a central issue relating to magnetic fields and chromospheric models is to learn how the photospheric field spreads with height. However, it quickly became apparent that in the time available, there was little prospect of building new unified models of magnetic field phenomena in the chromosphere beyond the scope of the formal presentations. Thus, the discussion was devoted to formulating questions which seemed both possible to address in future work and important for advancing understanding of the chromosphere. It began by discussing unresolved physical issues (almost everything) and then proceeded to consider means, both observational and synthetic, to address them.

Jones, H. P.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Validation of two-layer model for underexpanded hydrogen jets

Previous studies have shown that the two-layer model more accurately predicts hydrogen dispersion than the conventional notional nozzle models without significantly increasing the computational expense. However, the model was only validated for predicting the concentration distribution and has not been adequately validated for predicting the velocity distributions. In the present study, particle imaging velocimetry (PIV) was used to measure the velocity field of an underexpanded hydrogen jet released at 10 bar from a 1.5 mm diameter orifice. The two-layer model was the used to calculate the inlet conditions for a two-dimensional axisymmetric CFD model to simulate the hydrogen jet downstream of the Mach disk. The predicted velocity spreading and centerline decay rates agreed well with the PIV measurements. The predicted concentration distribution was consistent with data from previous planar Rayleigh scattering measurements used to verify the concentration distribution predictions in an earlier study. The jet spreading was also simulated using several widely used notional nozzle models combined with the integral plume model for comparison. These results show that the velocity and concentration distributions are both better predicted by the two-layer model than the notional nozzle models to complement previous studies verifying only the predicted concentration profiles. Thus, this study shows that the two-layer model can accurately predict the jet velocity distributions as well as the concentration distributions as verified earlier. Though more validation studies are needed to improve confidence in the model and increase the range of validity, the present work indicates that the two-layer model is a promising tool for fast, accurate predictions of the flow fields of underexpanded hydrogen jets.

08 HYDROGEN↗