SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “source term estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 649 records · Page 36

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2022

Computer Model Calibration with Time Series Data Using Deep Learning and Quantile Regression

Computer models play a key role in many scientific and engineering problems. One major source of uncertainty in computer model experiments is input parameter uncertainty. Computer model calibration is a formal statistical procedure to infer input parameters by combining information from model runs and observational data. The existing standard calibration framework suffers from inferential issues when the model output and observational data are high-dimensional dependent data, such as large time series, due to the difficulty in building an emulator and the nonidentifiability between effects from input parameters and data-model discrepancy. To overcome these challenges, we, in this work, propose a new calibration framework based on a deep neural network (DNN) with long short-term memory layers that directly emulates the inverse relationship between the model output and input parameters. Adopting the “learning with noise” idea, we train our DNN model to filter out the effects from data-model discrepancy on input parameter inference. We also formulate a new way to construct interval predictions for DNN using quantile regression to quantify the uncertainty in input parameter estimates. Through a simulation study and real data application with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model Hydrological modeling system (WRF-Hydro), we show our approach can yield accurate point estimates and well-calibrated interval estimates for input parameters.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1986

Calculations of cosmogenic nuclide production rates in the Earth's atmosphere and their inventories

The production rates of cosmogenic isotopes in the Earth's atmosphere and their resulting terrestrial abundances have been calculated, taking into account both geomagnetic and solar-modulatory effects. The local interstellar flux was assumed to be that of Garcia-Munoz, et al. Solar modulation was accounted for using the heliocentric potential model and expressed in terms of the Deep River neutron monitor count rates. The geomagnetic field was presented by vertical cutoffs calculated by Shea and Smart and the non-vertical cutoffs calculated using ANGRI. The local interstellar particle flux was first modulated using the heliocentric potential field. The modulated cosmic-ray fluxes reaching the earth's orbit then interacted with the geomagnetic field as though it were a high-pass filter. The interaction of the cosmic radiation with the Earth's atmosphere was calculated utilizing the Bolztmann transport equation. Spallation cross sections for isotope production were calculated using the formalism of Silberberg and Tsao and other cross sections were taken from standard sources. Inventories were calculated by accounting from the variation in solar modulation and geomagnetic field strength with time. Results for many isotope, including C-14, Be-7 and Be-10 are in generally good agreement with existing data. The C-14 inventory, for instance, amounts to 1.75/sq cm(e)/s, in excellent agreement with direct estimates.

Obrien, K.↗

NASA NTRS1989

An evidential approach to problem solving when a large number of knowledge systems is available

Some recent problems are no longer formulated in terms of imprecise facts, missing data or inadequate measuring devices. Instead, questions pertaining to knowledge and information itself arise and can be phrased independently of any particular area of knowledge. The problem considered in the present work is how to model a problem solver that is trying to find the answer to some query. The problem solver has access to a large number of knowledge systems that specialize in diverse features. In this context, feature means an indicator of what the possibilities for the answer are. The knowledge systems should not be accessed more than once, in order to have truly independent sources of information. Moreover, these systems are allowed to run in parallel. Since access might be expensive, it is necessary to construct a management policy for accessing these knowledge systems. To help in the access policy, some control knowledge systems are available. Control knowledge systems have knowledge about the performance parameters status of the knowledge systems. In order to carry out the double goal of estimating what units to access and to answer the given query, diverse pieces of evidence must be fused. The Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence is used to pool the knowledge bases.

Dekorvin, Andre↗

NASA NTRS1997

Frozen-Flux Modelling for Epochs 1915 and 1980

The frozen-flux hypothesis for the Earth's liquid core assumes that convective terms dominate diffusive terms in the induction equation governing the behaviour of the magnetic field at the surface of the core. While highly plausible on the basis of estimates of physical parameters, the hypothesis has been questioned. To study this hypothesis, we improve the method which tests the consistency of magnetic observations with the hypothesis by constructing simple, flux-conserving core-field models fitting the data at pairs of epochs. We introduce a new approach that fixes the patch configurations at each of the two epochs before inversion, so that each configuration is consistent with its respective data set but possesses the same patch topology. We expand upon the inversion algorithm, using quadratic programming to maintain the proper flux sign within patches; the modelling calculations are also extended to include data types that depend non-linearly on the model. Every test of a hypothesis depends on the characterization of the observational uncertainties; we undertake a thorough review of this question. For main-field models, the primary source of uncertainty comes from the crustal field. We base our analysis on statistical models of the crustal magnetization, adjusted to bring it into better conformity with our data set. The noise model permits us to take into account the correlations between the measurements and requires that a different weighting be given to horizontal and vertical components. It also indicates that the observations should be fit more closely than has been the practice heretofore. We apply the revised method to Magsat data from 1980 and survey and observatory data from 1915.5, two data sets believed to be particularly difficult to reconcile with the frozen-flux hypothesis. We compute a pair of simple, flux-conserving models that fit the averaged data from each epoch. We therefore conclude that present knowledge of the geomagnetic fields of 1980 and 1915.5 is consistent with the frozen-flux hypothesis.

OBrien, Michael S.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Implementing a VLBI Time Delay Model for Earth-orbiting Satellites: Partial derivatives and Verification

This document describes the partial derivatives for commonly estimated parameters including antenna positions, satellite position, and satellite velocity from a near-field VLBI delay model for Earth-orbiting satellites. This model was presented in the Journal of Geodesy by Jaron & Nothnagel (2019). In this context, we present a streamlined version of the near-field VLBI delay. From this simplified model, we deduce a delay rate expression and calculate partial derivatives, maintaining only the terms with significant impact on the computed derivatives’ magnitude. To verify the accuracy of the simplified model and the partial derivatives computed from it, we have created a simple simulation in Matlab of an Earth-orbiting satellite at the altitude of a typical Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) satellite. From this simulation, we compare the simplified and original delays, and we verify the magnitude and direction of the partial derivatives against the numerically computed derivatives from the original delay model. The partial derivatives and simplified VLBI delay model detailed here are implemented in Fortran in the open-source library VTD.

Geodesy↗

NASA NTRS2009

HX-POL-A Balloon-Borne Hard X-Ray Polarimeter

We report on the design and estimated performance of a balloon-borne hard X-ray polarimeter called HX-POL. The experiment uses a combination of Si and Cadmium Zinc Telluride detectors to measure the polarization of 50 keV-400 keV X-rays from cosmic sources through the dependence of the angular distribution of Compton scattered photons on the polarization direction. On a one-day balloon flight, HX-POL would allow us to measure the polarization of bright Crab-like sources for polarization degrees well below 10%. On a longer (15-30 day) flight from Australia or Antarctica, HX-POL would be be able to measure the polarization of bright galactic X-ray sources down to polarization degrees of a few percent. Hard X-ray polarization measurements provide unique venues for the study of particle acceleration processes by compact objects and relativistic outflows. In this paper, we discuss the overall instrument design and performance. Furthermore, we present results from laboratory tests of the Si and CZT detectors. Index Terms Gamma-ray astronomy, gamma-ray astronomy detectors, polarization, semiconductor radiation detectors, X-ray astronomy, X-ray astronomy detectors.

Krawczynski, H.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Two-way coupled particle-turbulence interaction: Effect of numerics and resolution on fluid and particle statistics

Euler-Lagrange point-particle simulation has emerged as a premier methodology for studying dispersed particle-laden flows. This method's popularity stems from its ability to resolve fine-scale fluid structures while also tracking individual particles at reduced cost using an appropriate particle acceleration model. However, the point-particle model has known convergence issues in that refinement of the fluid grid can lead to changes in the predicted statistics. The reasons for non-convergence are twofold: the point-particle two-way coupling force in the Navier-Stokes equations requires a numerical regularization and, without careful implementation, yields a singular force on the fluid with grid refinement. The second factor that yields grid-dependent statistics is that the point-particle force model in general depends on the undisturbed fluid velocity. When the undisturbed fluid velocity is not robustly modeled in a grid-insensitive way, the calculated force for both particles and fluid will be grid-dependent, contaminating their respective statistics. While the first issue regarding regularizing the point-particle source term has received attention in the literature, the consequences of robustly modeling the undisturbed velocity in the context of grid refinement of turbulence has received little attention. Here, we consider decaying homogeneous isotropic turbulence laden with particles at different Stokes numbers. For a given Stokes number, we systematically refine the grid and demonstrate that explicitly modeling the undisturbed fluid velocity yields relative grid insensitivity for the energy of the particle and fluid phases, as well as acceleration of the particles. We also demonstrate that an appropriately defined dissipation rate is also grid-insensitive when an undisturbed fluid velocity correction is used. In contrast, when the undisturbed fluid velocity is modeled using the conventional approach of interpolating the local fluid velocity to the particle location, we show this procedure yields divergent statistics with grid refinement. In particular, we show that higher-order interpolation of the fluid velocity in two-way coupled problems is worse than lower-order interpolation, in the absence of a correction procedure to estimate the undisturbed fluid velocity. We also examine velocity derivative statistics of the fluid phase and demonstrate that these statistics are not in general convergent even when the undisturbed fluid velocity is explicitly modeled. Collectively, the observations in this paper are used to present a philosophy on the types of questions which are answerable with point-particle methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Atomic Force Microscope Active Optical Probe for Single-Molecule Imaging and Time-Resolved Optical Spectroscopy (DOE SBIR Phase II/IIA Final Report)

Actoprobe LLC reports on the results of its DOE SBIR Phase II/IIA project on the development of Atomic Force Microscope Active Optical Probe for Single-Molecule Imaging and Time-Resolved Optical Spectroscopy. While chemistry science and technology greatly benefit from Atomic Force Microscopy in surface characterization, time-resolved chemical imaging on the single-molecule level lags far behind. Current scanning probe microscopy only obtains information about mechanical but not optical/chemical properties. To address this problem, the Actoprobe LLC research team has proposed a novel class of Atomic Force Microscopy probes, Ultra-Fast Pulsed Active Atomic Force Microscopy Optical Probes (UFP AAOPs), that will allow ultrafast time-resolved optical and chemical imaging at the nanoscale. As envisioned, these unique optical probes will perform the functions of conventional Atomic Force Microscopy probes and, in addition, will simultaneously provide chemical information about molecular scale interactions. This innovation is accomplished by integrating an ultrafast pulsed Quantum Dot laser source into an Atomic Force Microscopy probe. This report describes our progress with the fabrication of an ultrafast micrometer-size semiconductor laser, based on “artificial atoms” - Quantum Dots, integrated with an Atomic Force Microscopy probe. In this Phase II/IIA project, we have demonstrated the feasibility of the UFP AAOP concept by fabricating a first prototype of the UFP AAOP. The excellent performance of the probe has been proven in terms of AFM and optical spatial resolution through rigorous tests. The UFP AAOP provides pulses with less than 4 ps duration and higher than 11 GHz repetition rate, and spatial resolution better than 300 nm at 1240 nm wavelength. Technically, it is possible to reduce the pulse width to less than 1 ps and to improve lateral resolution to ~ 0.5 nm, which implies the potential capability for the probe to characterize chemical compounds with single-molecule resolution. The UFP AAOP fabrication procedure has been developed for wafer-scale production of multiple devices, with the yield of the process estimated to be lower than 1% with the limited fabrication capabilities and equipment available for use in the research project. However, using high-volume production tools and special GaAs processing equipment, the yield can be significantly improved, theoretically to ~ 50%. Finally, economic feasibility and scale-up manufacturing potential were analyzed for UFP AAOP and found to be very promising. In summary, the Actoprobe team has successfully demonstrated the feasibility of the UFP AAOP concept.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Near-Term Electricity Requirement and Emission Implications for Sustainable Aviation Fuel Production with CO 2 -to-Fuels Technologies

Aviation contributed approximately 10% of the U.S. transportation sector's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and about 3% of the nation's total GHG production before the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic (EPA 2022). Unlike the ground transportation sector, which can be decarbonized by using batteries and hydrogen fuel cell powertrain technologies, the technical and economic challenges of aviation electrification open the opportunity for CO 2 utilization (CO2U) using clean power sources. The U.S. government set a goal to produce 3 billion gallons per year of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) by 2030 and scale up the production to 35 billion gallons per year by 2050 (Bioenergy Technologies Office 2022). In this report, we examine three potential locations, in California, Iowa, and Louisiana, for SAF production using two production pathways that are expected to be available by 2030. We analyze the electricity cost to satisfy 10% of the SAF production potential for the select locations. Specifically, we consider (1) retail electricity cost from the default local utility in each location; (2) physical power purchase agreement (PPA) for renewable power and battery storage hybrid systems with preset prices; (3) financial PPA from a dedicated renewable plant; and (4) estimated real-time pricing (RTP) from the wholesale power market with utility delivery adders. Retail rates are available for the three potential locations; however, the developer should negotiate with the local utility in Iowa for new tariff riders, because the load of the proposed SAF plant (1.4 GW) is significantly higher than the current industrial tariff structure requirement (200 kW). The developers are not able to claim federal credits (i.e., the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022) when sourcing electricity from local utilities. Developers could consider prioritizing physical and financial PPAs as purchase options. While physical PPAs can be imported out of state, this structure imposes availability issues as developers must locate in the same electricity grid regions. Financial PPAs do not have the same location restrictions and provide the same cost savings as physical PPAs, but financial PPAs impose financial risks in the event of system curtailment and grid interruption. RTPs are available for customers in California with flexible load and hourly load management capability; however, utilities in our studied regions in Louisiana and Iowa only offer time-of-use and curtailment programs to incentivize lower energy usage in peak hours. These utilities do not currently offer RTP programs, and the developer may need to have further negotiations with the local utilities to access RTP programs. The results show that purchased electricity prices may range from 2.6 cents/kWh to 7.1 cents/kWh for the three studied plants.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2026

Final DOE-ASR Report for the Project “Using LASSO to bridge the gap between model and observations and to learn about atmospheric convection”

Atmospheric convection spans a wide range of spatial and temporal scales and involves complex interactions with the surrounding dynamic and thermodynamic environment, particularly over tropical continental regions. These processes remain a major source of uncertainty in weather and climate models, including persistent biases in the diurnal cycle of convective precipitation that directly affect estimates of climate sensitivity. Addressing these challenges requires the combined use of high-resolution observations and cloud-resolving modeling frameworks. In this context, the DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program’s Large-Eddy Simulation ARM Symbiotic Simulation and Observation (LASSO) activity provides a powerful platform that pairs comprehensive observations with numerical simulations to enable process-level understanding of atmospheric convection. Within this context, this Research and Development Partnership Pilot (RDPP) project was designed to initiate and expand DOE ARM/ASR research capacity at minority-serving institutions, while advancing scientific understanding of convective processes over the Amazon rainforest. Consistent with the RDPP mission, the project emphasized partnership development, training, and workforce capacity building alongside exploratory research activities. On the scientific side, the project produced two peer-reviewed journal articles, and one manuscript currently under review (see list in section 3.1). Together, these studies combine long-term ARM observations and cloud-resolving and convection-permitting modeling to investigate the environmental controls on the shallow-to-deep convective transition during the Amazon wet season. The results demonstrate the central role of early-day moisture preconditioning and large-scale dynamical forcing in regulating isolated deep convection, provide mechanistic insight into convective evolution, and establish physically informed modeling frameworks for future sensitivity experiments. These scientific outcomes are described in sections 2.1 to 2.3 and were disseminated in 8 conference presentations (see section 3.2) and 5 invited talks (see section 3.3), reflecting broad engagement with our community. Equally important, the project achieved its RDPP capacity-building objectives (see section 2.4). A sustained research partnership was established among the University of Maryland, Baltimore County (UMBC), Morgan State University (MSU), and Howard University (HU), and extended to include collaboration with Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). The project organized multiple multi-day training events focused on ARM data, LASSO simulations, and quantitative analysis methods, directly engaging students, postdoctoral researchers, and faculty across institutions. These activities broadened participation in ASR research and led to independent adoption of LASSO workflows by students beyond the immediate project team. Finally, the project successfully positioned the participating institutions to pursue future DOE research. Preliminary scientific results, coupled with strengthened partnerships and technical capacity, enabled the submission of follow-on proposals to DOE ASR funding opportunities. In this way, the project fulfilled the RDPP goal of seeding durable research capacity and laying the foundation for larger-scale, sustained engagement with DOE ARM and ASR programs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2001

Spectral Data Assimilation for Merging Satellite Ocean Color Imagery

The Sensor Intercomparison and Merger for Biological and Interdisciplinary Oceanic Studies (SIMBIOS) project was initiated 'to develop a methodology and operational capability to combine data products from various ocean color missions in a manner that ensures the best possible global coverage and best exploits the complementary missions of the sensors'. While the merging of data from multiple sources has already been implemented for sea surface temperature (SST), altimetry or clouds, this is a new topic in ocean color science. Merging ocean color data has obvious advantage in terms of spatial and temporal coverage of the global ocean but data merging should also result in new, more diverse and improved data products with lower uncertainties. The merging of ocean color satellite data is generally considered at the level of the global gridded products, i.e., NASA Level-3 and, more specifically, for the merging of chlorophyll a concentration data, [Ch1]. This approach limits computational issues and deals with a unique, simple quantity, [Ch1]. However, ocean color data merging can also be conducted at the level of water-leaving radiances, LwN(lamda), using either empirical or semi-analytical algorithms. Although more challenging, this latter approach is potentially extremely powerful as it can achieve good consistency in the final data products and can take advantage of both the specificities and differences of each source of data. The demonstration of the feasibility of such approach is the main objective of our SIMBIOS work. Here, we use a semi-analytical algorithm to merge Rrs (or, equivalently LwN) data from different sources to estimate [Ch1]. The model also allows for the retrieval of other quantities such as the combined absorption of colored detrital particulate and dissolved organic matter at 443 nm, a(sub cdm)(443) and the particulate backscattering, b(sub bp)(443).

Siegel, David A.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Preconceptual Design of Irradiated Fuel Salt Management System

The National Reactor Innovation Center was established by the U.S. Department of Energy to accelerate the demonstration and deployment of advanced nuclear reactors. To meet this mission, the National Reactor Innovation Center has developed the Laboratory for Operations and Testing in the U.S. (LOTUS) to support the first fast-spectrum molten salt reactor demonstration. The goal of this research is to understand the system requirements that may be applied to a molten salt reactor experiment in the LOTUS test bed and to perform systems analyses and preconceptual development of a storage container for the management of the irradiated molten salt fuel. This study proposes a set of irradiated fuel salt management processes for the molten salt reactor, from defueling to storage or disposal. For that, the historic Molten Salt Reactor Experiment (MSRE) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory has served as a crucial source of data for a mock application. This paper proposes a potential geometry for storing irradiated fuel salt based on MSRE data and the Monte Carlo N-Particle radiation transport code. The geometry was analyzed for criticality safety under abnormal situations, such as water ingress and interaction between containers. Based on the determined configuration of the storage system, the decay heat produced from the irradiated fuel salts was calculated to provide a reasonable time scale of the dormancy period. Using the same geometry assumed above, the neutron and gamma dose rates from the irradiated fuel salt at the end of the dormancy period were estimated, which will be useful for understanding the handling and radiation protection requirements for handling the irradiated fuel salt. Lastly, a reactor in the LOTUS test bed could use chloride-based fuel as opposed to the fluoride-based fuel used in MSRE. Thus, a literature study provided data to understand the similarities and differences between the characteristics of fluoride- and chloride-based salts in terms of salt chemistry, material characteristics, postirradiation behavior, neutronics, thermal hydraulics, and heat removal. This study, together with the proposed irradiated fuel salt management processes, preliminary criticality calculations, decay heat, and dose rate estimates, provides a strong basis for future investigation into the management of irradiated fuel salts generated during molten salt reactor technology demonstrations.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRS2013

Tuning and Robustness Analysis for the Orion Absolute Navigation System

The Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) is currently under development as NASA's next-generation spacecraft for exploration missions beyond Low Earth Orbit. The MPCV is set to perform an orbital test flight, termed Exploration Flight Test 1 (EFT-1), some time in late 2014. The navigation system for the Orion spacecraft is being designed in a Multi-Organizational Design Environment (MODE) team including contractor and NASA personnel. The system uses an Extended Kalman Filter to process measurements and determine the state. The design of the navigation system has undergone several iterations and modifications since its inception, and continues as a work-in-progress. This paper seeks to show the efforts made to-date in tuning the filter for the EFT-1 mission and instilling appropriate robustness into the system to meet the requirements of manned space ight. Filter performance is affected by many factors: data rates, sensor measurement errors, tuning, and others. This paper focuses mainly on the error characterization and tuning portion. Traditional efforts at tuning a navigation filter have centered around the observation/measurement noise and Gaussian process noise of the Extended Kalman Filter. While the Orion MODE team must certainly address those factors, the team is also looking at residual edit thresholds and measurement underweighting as tuning tools. Tuning analysis is presented with open loop Monte-Carlo simulation results showing statistical errors bounded by the 3-sigma filter uncertainty covariance. The Orion filter design uses 24 Exponentially Correlated Random Variable (ECRV) parameters to estimate the accel/gyro misalignment and nonorthogonality. By design, the time constant and noise terms of these ECRV parameters were set to manufacturer specifications and not used as tuning parameters. They are included in the filter as a more analytically correct method of modeling uncertainties than ad-hoc tuning of the process noise. Tuning is explored for the powered-flight ascent phase, where measurements are scarce and unmodelled vehicle accelerations dominate. On orbit, there are important trade-off cases between process and measurement noise. On entry, there are considerations about trading performance accuracy for robustness. Process Noise is divided into powered flight and coasting ight and can be adjusted for each phase and mode of the Orion EFT-1 mission. Measurement noise is used for the integrated velocity measurements during pad alignment. It is also used for Global Positioning System (GPS) pseudorange and delta- range measurements during the rest of the flight. The robustness effort has been focused on maintaining filter convergence and performance in the presence of unmodeled error sources. These include unmodeled forces on the vehicle and uncorrected errors on the sensor measurements. Orion uses a single-frequency, non-keyed GPS receiver, so the effects due to signal distortion in Earth's ionosphere and troposphere are present in the raw measurements. Results are presented showing the efforts to compensate for these errors as well as characterize the residual effect for measurement noise tuning. Another robustness tool in use is tuning the residual edit thresholds. The trade-off between noise tuning and edit thresholds is explored in the context of robustness to errors in dynamics models and sensor measurements. Measurement underweighting is also presented as a method of additional robustness when processing highly accurate measurements in the presence of large filter uncertainties.

Holt, Greg N.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Aerothermodynamic Measurements in Hypersonic Non-Equilibrium Flows

High enthalpy arc-jets are unique facilities particularly suited for simulating complex flows in the aerospace field, such as the aerothermodynamics of a re-entry vehicle. Arc-jets are often used to evaluate important design factors such as heat shield materials and vehicle design. Characterization of these facilities is important, as studies often match specific in-flight environments during experiments. Due to the complex environment produced by an arc-jet, with effects such as thermodynamic and chemical non-equilibrium occurring in the flow, characterization experiments are significantly more difficult than in traditional blow-down wind tunnels. The current work aims to characterize an arc-jet facility in terms of flow temperature, velocity and unsteadiness, in a spatially-resolved analysis. To achieve this goal, a non-intrusive imaging technique called “planar laser-induced fluorescence” was performed in the NASA Langley Hypersonic Materials Environ-mental Test System arc-jet facility. The experimental data was analyzed to produce the quantitative measurements in multiple regions of the flow around a blunt body sample. A quasi-1D low fidelity solver was created to numerically simulate the flow to investigate non-equilibrium effects occur-ring outside the imaging region in the arc-jet nozzle. Unsteadiness in the test section was minimized by analyzing a subset of data assessing the gas injection location. Radial velocity, rotational temperature and translational temperature measurements are provided that can be used to validate future high-fidelity computational studies. The temperature measurements revealed rotational non-equilibrium potentially occurring in the flow. This work provides a methodology for characterizing arc-jet facilities, identifying and correcting sources of systematic error, and estimating the uncertainty associated with the quantitative measurements.

laser induced fluorescence↗

DOE OSTI2021

Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6

Abstract. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) defines and coordinates the main set of future climate projections, based on concentration-driven simulations, within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). This paper presents a range of its outcomes by synthesizing results from the participating global coupled Earth system models. We limit our scope to the analysis of strictly geophysical outcomes: mainly global averages and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation. We also compare CMIP6 projections to CMIP5 results, especially for those scenarios that were designed to provide continuity across the CMIP phases, at the same time highlighting important differences in forcing composition, as well as in results. The range of future temperature and precipitation changes by the end of the century (2081–2100) encompassing the Tier 1 experiments based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and SSP1-1.9 spans a larger range of outcomes compared to CMIP5, due to higher warming (by close to 1.5 ∘C) reached at the upper end of the 5 %–95 % envelope of the highest scenario (SSP5-8.5). This is due to both the wider range of radiative forcing that the new scenarios cover and the higher climate sensitivities in some of the new models compared to their CMIP5 predecessors. Spatial patterns of change for temperature and precipitation averaged over models and scenarios have familiar features, and an analysis of their variations confirms model structural differences to be the dominant source of uncertainty. Models also differ with respect to the size and evolution of internal variability as measured by individual models' initial condition ensemble spreads, according to a set of initial condition ensemble simulations available under SSP3-7.0. These experiments suggest a tendency for internal variability to decrease along the course of the century in this scenario, a result that will benefit from further analysis over a larger set of models. Benefits of mitigation, all else being equal in terms of societal drivers, appear clearly when comparing scenarios developed under the same SSP but to which different degrees of mitigation have been applied. It is also found that a mild overshoot in temperature of a few decades around mid-century, as represented in SSP5-3.4OS, does not affect the end outcome of temperature and precipitation changes by 2100, which return to the same levels as those reached by the gradually increasing SSP4-3.4 (not erasing the possibility, however, that other aspects of the system may not be as easily reversible). Central estimates of the time at which the ensemble means of the different scenarios reach a given warming level might be biased by the inclusion of models that have shown faster warming in the historical period than the observed. Those estimates show all scenarios reaching 1.5 ∘C of warming compared to the 1850–1900 baseline in the second half of the current decade, with the time span between slow and fast warming covering between 20 and 27 years from present. The warming level of 2 ∘C of warming is reached as early as 2039 by the ensemble mean under SSP5-8.5 but as late as the mid-2060s under SSP1-2.6. The highest warming level considered (5 ∘C) is reached by the ensemble mean only under SSP5-8.5 and not until the mid-2090s.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2021

Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) defines and coordinates the main set of future climate projections, based on concentration-driven simulations, within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). This paper presents a range of its outcomes by synthesizing results from the participating global coupled Earth system models. We limit our scope to the analysis of strictly geophysical outcomes: mainly global averages and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation. We also compare CMIP6 projections to CMIP5 results, especially for those scenarios that were designed to provide continuity across the CMIP phases, at the same time highlighting important differences in forcing composition, as well as in results. The range of future temperature and precipitation changes by the end of the century (2081–2100) encompassing the Tier 1 experiments based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and SSP1-1.9 spans a larger range of outcomes compared to CMIP5, due to higher warming (by close to 1.5 °C) reached at the upper end of the 5 %–95 % envelope of the highest scenario (SSP5-8.5). This is due to both the wider range of radiative forcing that the new scenarios cover and the higher climate sensitivities in some of the new models compared to their CMIP5 predecessors. Spatial patterns of change for temperature and precipitation averaged over models and scenarios have familiar features, and an analysis of their variations confirms model structural differences to be the dominant source of uncertainty. Models also differ with respect to the size and evolution of internal variability as measured by individual models' initial condition ensemble spreads, according to a set of initial condition ensemble simulations available under SSP3-7.0. These experiments suggest a tendency for internal variability to decrease along the course of the century in this scenario, a result that will benefit from further analysis over a larger set of models. Benefits of mitigation, all else being equal in terms of societal drivers, appear clearly when comparing scenarios developed under the same SSP but to which different degrees of mitigation have been applied. It is also found that a mild overshoot in temperature of a few decades around mid-century, as represented in SSP5-3.4OS, does not affect the end outcome of temperature and precipitation changes by 2100, which return to the same levels as those reached by the gradually increasing SSP4-3.4 (not erasing the possibility, however, that other aspects of the system may not be as easily reversible). Central estimates of the time at which the ensemble means of the different scenarios reach a given warming level might be biased by the inclusion of models that have shown faster warming in the historical period than the observed. Those estimates show all scenarios reaching 1.5 °C of warming compared to the 1850–1900 baseline in the second half of the current decade, with the time span between slow and fast warming covering between 20 and 27 years from present. The warming level of 2 °C of warming is reached as early as 2039 by the ensemble mean under SSP5-8.5 but as late as the mid-2060s under SSP1-2.6. The highest warming level considered (5 °C) is reached by the ensemble mean only under SSP5-8.5 and not until the mid-2090s.d-2090s.

Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMI↗

DOE OSTI2022

Methods of improving brain dose estimates for internally deposited radionuclides *

The US National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) convened Scientific Committee 6–12 (SC 6–12) to examine methods for improving dose estimates for brain tissue for internally deposited radionuclides, with emphasis on alpha emitters. This Memorandum summarises the main findings of SC 6–12 described in the recently published NCRP Commentary No. 31, ‘Development of Kinetic and Anatomical Models for Brain Dosimetry for Internally Deposited Radionuclides’. The Commentary examines the extent to which dose estimates for the brain could be improved through increased realism in the biokinetic and dosimetric models currently used in radiation protection and epidemiology. A limitation of most of the current element-specific systemic biokinetic models is the absence of brain as an explicitly identified source region with its unique rate(s) of exchange of the element with blood. The brain is usually included in a large source region called Other that contains all tissues not considered major repositories for the element. In effect, all tissues in Other are assigned a common set of exchange rates with blood. A limitation of current dosimetric models for internal emitters is that activity in the brain is treated as a well-mixed pool, although more sophisticated models allowing consideration of different activity concentrations in different regions of the brain have been proposed. Here case studies for 18 internal emitters indicate that brain dose estimates using current dosimetric models may change substantially (by a factor of 5 or more), or may change only modestly, by addition of a sub-model of the brain in the biokinetic model, with transfer rates based on results of published biokinetic studies and autopsy data for the element of interest. As a starting place for improving brain dose estimates, development of biokinetic models with explicit sub-models of the brain (when sufficient biokinetic data are available) is underway for radionuclides frequently encountered in radiation epidemiology. A longer-term goal is development of coordinated biokinetic and dosimetric models that address the distribution of major radioelements among radiosensitive brain tissues.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

NASA NTRS2009

Got Mercury?

Many of the operational and payload lighting units used in various spacecraft contain elemental mercury. If these devices were damaged on-orbit, elemental mercury could be released into the cabin. Although there are plans to replace operational units with alternate light sources, such as LEDs, that do not contain mercury, mercury-containing lamps efficiently produce high quality illumination and may never be completely replaced on orbit. Therefore, exposure to elemental mercury during spaceflight will remain possible and represents a toxicological hazard. Elemental mercury is a liquid metal that vaporizes slowly at room temperature. However, it may be completely vaporized at the elevated operating temperatures of lamps. Although liquid mercury is not readily absorbed through the skin or digestive tract, mercury vapors are efficiently absorbed through the respiratory tract. Therefore, the amount of mercury in the vapor form must be estimated. For mercury releases from lamps that are not being operated, we utilized a study conducted by the New Jersey Department of Environmental Quality to calculate the amount of mercury vapor expected to form over a 2-week period. For longer missions and for mercury releases occurring when lamps are operating, we conservatively assumed complete volatilization of the available mercury. Because current spacecraft environmental control systems are unable to remove mercury vapors, both short-term and long-term exposures to mercury vapors are possible. Acute exposure to high concentrations of mercury vapors can cause irritation of the respiratory tract and behavioral symptoms, such as irritability and hyperactivity. Chronic exposure can result in damage to the nervous system (tremors, memory loss, insomnia, etc.) and kidneys (proteinurea). Therefore, the JSC Toxicology Group recommends that stringent safety controls and verifications (vibrational testing, etc.) be applied to any hardware that contains elemental mercury that could yield airborne mercury vapor concentrations greater than 0.1 mg/cu m in the total spacecraft atmosphere for exposures lasting 30 days or less or 0.01 mg/cu m mercury vapor for exposures lasting more than 30 days. We also encourage the use of alternative devices that do not contain mercury.

Meyers, Valerie E.↗