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At least 649 records · Page 36

Electron distributions in quasi-perpendicular shocks: Simulations

One of the outstanding problems of collisionless shock physics is the microphysical description of electron thermalization and associated wave processes. Observations at the Earth's bow shock have shown various features in the electron velocity distribution such as a loss-cone, temperature anisotropies, and beams before a thermalized, flat-topped distribution is reached downstream. It is generally believed that in addition to the macroscopic fields, which determine the overall mapping of the distribution function, electromagnetic whistler waves and lower hybrid waves are responsible for the pitch-angle scattering and thermalization of the electrons. However, a genuine physical explanation requires analysis of the evolution of the electron distribution in the self-consistent wave fields. Particle simulations are ideally suited to do this, and include processes in which both electrons and ions are involved, such as cross-field streaming instabilities. We show results from l-D and 2-D simulations using an implicit code, which allows time steps large compared to the inverse electron plasma frequency. It is shown that in order to capture the correct propagation characteristics of the waves, a large mass ratio between the protons and electrons is generally necessary. Detailed diagnostics of the waves as well as the evolution of the electron velocity distribution will be presented and will be discussed in the frame work of satellite observations.

Pantellini, F.↗

Design of Modular, Shape-transitioning Inlets for a Conical Hypersonic Vehicle

For a hypersonic vehicle, propelled by scramjet engines, integration of the engines and airframe is highly desirable. Thus, the forward capture shape of the engine inlet should conform to the vehicle body shape. Furthermore, the use of modular engines places a constraint on the shape of the inlet sidewalls. Finally, one may desire a combustor cross- section shape that is different from that of the inlet. These shape constraints for the inlet can be accommodated by employing a streamline-tracing and lofting technique. This design technique was developed by Smart for inlets with a rectangular-to-elliptical shape transition. In this paper, we generalise that technique to produce inlets that conform to arbitrary shape requirements. As an example, we show the design of a body-integrated hypersonic inlet on a winged-cone vehicle, typical of what might be used in a three-stage orbital launch system. The special challenge of inlet design for this conical vehicle at an angle-of-attack is also discussed. That challenge is that the bow shock sits relatively close to the vehicle body.

Gollan, Rowan J.↗

Integrated Science Investigation of the Sun (ISIS): Design of the Energetic Particle Investigation

The Integrated Science Investigation of the Sun (ISIS) is a complete science investigation on the Solar Probe Plus (SPP) mission, which flies to within nine solar radii of the Sun's surface. ISIS comprises a two-instrument suite to measure energetic particles over a very broad energy range, as well as coordinated management, science operations, data processing, and scientific analysis. Together, ISIS observations allow us to explore the mechanisms of energetic particles dynamics, including their: (1) Origins-defining the seed populations and physical conditions necessary for energetic particle acceleration; (2) Acceleration-determining the roles of shocks, reconnection, waves, and turbulence in accelerating energetic particles; and (3) Transport-revealing how energetic particles propagate from the corona out into the heliosphere. The two ISIS Energetic Particle Instruments measure lower (EPI-Lo) and higher (EPI-Hi) energy particles. EPI-Lo measures ions and ion composition from approx. 20 keV/nucleon-15 MeV total energy and electrons from approx.25-1000 keV. EPI-Hi measures ions from approx. 1-200 MeV/nucleon and electrons from approx. 0.5-6 MeV. EPI-Lo comprises 80 tiny apertures with fields-of-view (FOVs) that sample over nearly a complete hemisphere, while EPI-Hi combines three telescopes that together provide five large-FOV apertures. ISIS observes continuously inside of 0.25 AU with a high data collection rate and burst data (EPI-Lo) coordinated with the rest of the SPP payload; outside of 0.25 AU, ISIS runs in low-rate science mode whenever feasible to capture as complete a record as possible of the solar energetic particle environment and provide calibration and continuity for measurements closer in to the Sun. The ISIS Science Operations Center plans and executes commanding, receives and analyzes all ISIS data, and coordinates science observations and analyses with the rest of the SPP science investigations. Together, ISIS' unique observations on SPP will enable the discovery, untangling, and understanding of the important physical processes that govern energetic particles in the innermost regions of our heliosphere, for the first time. This paper summarizes the ISIS investigation at the time of the SPP mission Preliminary Design Review in January 2014.

Coronal Mass Ejections↗

Exploiting the Convergence of Evidence in Satellite Data for Advanced Weather Index Insurance Design

The goal of drought-related weather index insurance (WII) is to protect smallholder farmers against the risk of weather shocks and to increase their agricultural productivity. Estimates of precipitation and vegetation greenness are the two dominant satellite datasets. However, ignoring additional moisture- and energy-related processes that influence the response of vegetation to rainfall leads to an incomplete representation of the hydrologic cycle. This study evaluates the added value of considering multiple independent satellite-based variables to design, calibrate, and validate weather insurance indices on the African continent. The satellite data include two rainfall datasets, soil moisture, the evaporative stress index (ESI), and vegetation greenness. We limit artificial advantages by resampling all datasets to the same spatial (0.25°) and temporal (monthly) resolution, although datasets with a higher spatial resolution might have an added value, if considered as the single source of information for localized applications. A higher correlation coefficient between the moisture-focused variables and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), an indicator for vegetation vigor, provides evidence for the datasets’ capability to capture agricultural drought conditions on the ground. The Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) rainfall dataset, soil moisture, and ESI show higher correlations with the (lagged) NDVI in large parts of Africa, for different land covers and various climate zones, than the African Rainfall Climatology, version 2 (ARC2), rainfall dataset, which is often used in WII. A comparison to drought years as reported by farmers in Ethiopia, Senegal, and Zambia indicates a high “hit rate” of all satellite-derived anomalies regarding the detection of severe droughts but limitations regarding moderate drought events.

drought↗

Towards a Comprehensive Model of Jet Noise Using an Acoustic Analogy and Steady RANS Solutions

An acoustic analogy is developed to predict the noise from jet flows. It contains two source models that independently predict the noise from turbulence and shock wave shear layer interactions. The acoustic analogy is based on the Euler equations and separates the sources from propagation. Propagation effects are taken into account by calculating the vector Green's function of the linearized Euler equations. The sources are modeled following the work of Tam and Auriault, Morris and Boluriaan, and Morris and Miller. A statistical model of the two-point cross-correlation of the velocity fluctuations is used to describe the turbulence. The acoustic analogy attempts to take into account the correct scaling of the sources for a wide range of nozzle pressure and temperature ratios. It does not make assumptions regarding fine- or large-scale turbulent noise sources, self- or shear-noise, or convective amplification. The acoustic analogy is partially informed by three-dimensional steady Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes solutions that include the nozzle geometry. The predictions are compared with experiments of jets operating subsonically through supersonically and at unheated and heated temperatures. Predictions generally capture the scaling of both mixing noise and BBSAN for the conditions examined, but some discrepancies remain that are due to the accuracy of the steady RANS turbulence model closure, the equivalent sources, and the use of a simplified vector Green's function solver of the linearized Euler equations.

Miller, Steven A. E.↗

Hybrid Upwind Splitting (HUS) by a Field-by-Field Decomposition

We introduce and develop a new approach for upwind biasing: the hybrid upwind splitting (HUS) method. This original procedure is based on a suitable hybridization of current prominent flux vector splitting (FVS) and flux difference splitting (FDS) methods. The HUS method is designed to naturally combine the respective strengths of the above methods while excluding their main deficiencies. Specifically, the HUS strategy yields a family of upwind methods that exhibit the robustness of FVS schemes in the capture of nonlinear waves and the accuracy of some FDS schemes in the resolution of linear waves. We give a detailed construction of the HUS methods following a general and systematic procedure directly performed at the basic level of the field by field (i.e. waves) decomposition involved in FDS methods. For such a given decomposition, each field is endowed either with FVS or FDS numerical fluxes, depending on the nonlinear nature of the field under consideration. Such a design principle is made possible thanks to the introduction of a convenient formalism that provides us with a unified framework for upwind methods. The HUS methods we propose bring significant improvements over current methods in terms of accuracy and robustness. They yield entropy-satisfying approximate solutions as they are strongly supported in numerical experiments. Field by field hybrid numerical fluxes also achieve fairly simple and explicit expressions and hence require a computational effort between that of the FVS and FDS. Several numerical experiments ranging from stiff 1D shock-tube to high speed viscous flows problems are displayed, intending to illustrate the benefits of the present approach. We assess in particular the relevance of our HUS schemes to viscous flow calculations.

Coquel, Frederic↗

Assessment of Radiative Heating Uncertainty for Hyperbolic Earth Entry

This paper investigates the shock-layer radiative heating uncertainty for hyperbolic Earth entry, with the main focus being a Mars return. In Part I of this work, a baseline simulation approach involving the LAURA Navier-Stokes code with coupled ablation and radiation is presented, with the HARA radiation code being used for the radiation predictions. Flight cases representative of peak-heating Mars or asteroid return are de ned and the strong influence of coupled ablation and radiation on their aerothermodynamic environments are shown. Structural uncertainties inherent in the baseline simulations are identified, with turbulence modeling, precursor absorption, grid convergence, and radiation transport uncertainties combining for a +34% and ..24% structural uncertainty on the radiative heating. A parametric uncertainty analysis, which assumes interval uncertainties, is presented. This analysis accounts for uncertainties in the radiation models as well as heat of formation uncertainties in the flow field model. Discussions and references are provided to support the uncertainty range chosen for each parameter. A parametric uncertainty of +47.3% and -28.3% is computed for the stagnation-point radiative heating for the 15 km/s Mars-return case. A breakdown of the largest individual uncertainty contributors is presented, which includes C3 Swings cross-section, photoionization edge shift, and Opacity Project atomic lines. Combining the structural and parametric uncertainty components results in a total uncertainty of +81.3% and ..52.3% for the Mars-return case. In Part II, the computational technique and uncertainty analysis presented in Part I are applied to 1960s era shock-tube and constricted-arc experimental cases. It is shown that experiments contain shock layer temperatures and radiative ux values relevant to the Mars-return cases of present interest. Comparisons between the predictions and measurements, accounting for the uncertainty in both, are made for a range of experiments. A measure of comparison quality is de ned, which consists of the percent overlap of the predicted uncertainty bar with the corresponding measurement uncertainty bar. For nearly all cases, this percent overlap is greater than zero, and for most of the higher temperature cases (T >13,000 K) it is greater than 50%. These favorable comparisons provide evidence that the baseline computational technique and uncertainty analysis presented in Part I are adequate for Mars-return simulations. In Part III, the computational technique and uncertainty analysis presented in Part I are applied to EAST shock-tube cases. These experimental cases contain wavelength dependent intensity measurements in a wavelength range that covers 60% of the radiative intensity for the 11 km/s, 5 m radius flight case studied in Part I. Comparisons between the predictions and EAST measurements are made for a range of experiments. The uncertainty analysis presented in Part I is applied to each prediction, and comparisons are made using the metrics defined in Part II. The agreement between predictions and measurements is excellent for velocities greater than 10.5 km/s. Both the wavelength dependent and wavelength integrated intensities agree within 30% for nearly all cases considered. This agreement provides confidence in the computational technique and uncertainty analysis presented in Part I, and provides further evidence that this approach is adequate for Mars-return simulations. Part IV of this paper reviews existing experimental data that include the influence of massive ablation on radiative heating. It is concluded that this existing data is not sufficient for the present uncertainty analysis. Experiments to capture the influence of massive ablation on radiation are suggested as future work, along with further studies of the radiative precursor and improvements in the radiation properties of ablation products.

Johnston, Christopher O.↗

Performance of a Supersonic Over-Wing Inlet with Application to a Low-Sonic-Boom Aircraft

Development of commercial supersonic aircraft has been hindered by many related factors including fuel-efficiency, economics, and sonic-boom signatures that have prevented over-land flight. Materials, propulsion, and flight control technologies have developed to the point where, if over-land flight were made possible, a commercial supersonic transport could be economically viable. Computational fluid dynamics, and modern optimization techniques enable designers to reduce the boom signature of candidate aircraft configurations to acceptable levels. However, propulsion systems must be carefully integrated with these low-boom configurations in order that the signatures remain acceptable. One technique to minimize the downward propagation of waves is to mount the propulsion systems above the wing, such that the wing provides shielding from shock waves generated by the inlet and nacelle. This topmounted approach introduces a number of issues with inlet design and performance especially with the highly-swept wing configurations common to low-boom designs. A 1.79%-scale aircraft model was built and tested at the NASA Glenn Research Center's 8-by 6-Foot Supersonic Wind Tunnel (8x6 SWT) to validate the configuration's sonic boom signature. In order to evaluate performance of the top-mounted inlets, the starboard flow-through nacelle on the aerodynamic model was replaced by a 2.3%-scale operational inlet model. This integrated configuration was tested at the 8x6 SWT from Mach 0.25 to 1.8 over a wide range of angles-of-attack and yaw. The inlet was also tested in an isolated configuration over a smaller range of angles-of-attack and yaw. A number of boundary-layer bleed configurations were investigated and found to provide a substantial positive impact on pressure recovery and distortion. Installed inlet performance in terms of mass capture, pressure recovery, and distortion over the Mach number range at the design angle-of-attack of 4-degrees is presented herein and compared to that at 0- degrees, as well as the isolated inlet configuration to highlight installation effects. Performance of the installed inlet fell below that of the isolated inlet at Mach numbers of 1.4 and greater. The installed inlet demonstrated adequate operability over the expected range of angles-of-attack and yaw, but did exhibit definite angle-ofattack and yaw limits at supersonic conditions. At each supersonic flight Mach number, performance parameters near zero yaw angle were relatively insensitive to yaw, but in general the yaw angle yielding best performance was non-zero and varied with angle-of-attack. Performance of the installed inlet is also presented as functions of angle-of-attack and yaw to highlight these effects. Distortion at the aerodynamic interface plane ranged between 10 and 25% at the inlet critical points over the range of flight Mach numbers tested and did not decrease significantly for the isolated inlet. Although these distortion levels would be considered high for operation with a turbine engine, the over-wing installation is likely not as significant a contributor as the low test Reynolds number. This is demonstrated by comparing CFD analysis of the isolated inlet at test scale with that at intermediate and full scales.

Performance↗

Physiologically constrained aerocapture for manned Mars missions

Aerobraking has been proposed as a critical technology for manned missions to Mars. The variety of mission architectures currently under consideration presents aerobrake designers with an enormous range of potential entry scenarios. Two of the most important considerations in the design of an aerobrake are the required control authority (lift-to-drag ratio) and the aerothermal environment which the vehicle will encounter. Therefore, this study examined the entry corridor width and stagnation-point heating rate and load for the entire range of probable entry velocities, lift-to-drag ratios, and ballistic coefficients for capture at both Earth and Mars. To accomplish this, a peak deceleration limit for the aerocapture maneuvers had to be established. Previous studies had used a variety of load limits without adequate proof of their validity. Existing physiological and space flight data were examined, and it was concluded that a deceleration limit of 5 G was appropriate. When this load limit was applied, numerical studies showed that an aerobrake with an L/D of 0.3 could provide an entry corridor width of at least 1 degree for all Mars aerocaptures considered with entry velocities up to 9 km/s. If 10 km/s entries are required, an L/D of 0.4 to 0.5 would be necessary to maintain a corridor width of at least 1 degree. For Earth return aerocapture, a vehicle with an L/D of 0.4 to 0.5 was found to provide a corridor width of 0.7 degree or more for all entry velocities up to 14.5 km/s. Aerodynamic convective heating calculations were performed assuming a fully catalytic, 'cold' wall; radiative heating was calculated assuming that the shock layer was in thermochemical equilibrium. Heating rates were low enough for selected entries at Mars that a radiatively cooled thermal protection system might be feasible, although an ablative material would be required for most scenarios. Earth return heating rates were generally more severe than those encountered by the Apollo vehicles, and would require ablative heat shields in all cases.

Lyne, James Evans↗

Laser interferometer skin-friction measurements of crossing-shock-wave/turbulent-boundary-layer interactions

Wall shear stress measurements beneath crossing-shock-wave/turbulent boundary-layer interactions have been made for three interactions of different strengths. The interactions are generated by two sharp fins at symetric angles of attack mounted on a flat plate. The shear stress measurements were made for fin angles of 7 and 11 deg at Mach 3 and 15 deg at Mach 3.85. The measurements were made using a laser interferometer skin-friction meter, a device that determines the wall shear by optically measuring the time rate of thinning of an oil film placed on the test model surface. Results of the measurements reveal high skin-friction coefficients in the vicinity of the fin/plate junction and the presence of quasi-two-dimensional flow separation on the interaction center line. Additionally, two Navier-Stokes computations, one using a Baldwin-Lomax turbulence model and one using a k-epsilon model, are compared with the experimental results for the Mach 3.85, 15-deg interaction case. Although the k-epsilon model did a reasonable job of predicting the overall trend in portions of the skin-friction distribution, neither computation fully captured the physics of the near-surface flow in this complex interaction.

Garrison, T. J.↗

Flight Tests of a Supersonic Natural Laminar Flow Airfoil

IR thermography was used to characterize the transition front on a S-NLF test article at chord Reynolds numbers in excess of 30 million Changes in transition due to Mach number, Reynolds number, and surface roughness were investigated - Regions of laminar flow in excess of 80% chord at chord Reynolds numbers greater than 14 million IR thermography clearly showed the transition front and other flow features such as shock waves impinging upon the surface A series of parallel oblique shocks, of yet unknown origin, were found to cause premature transition at higher Reynolds numbers. NASA has a current goal to eliminate barriers to the development of practical supersonic transport aircraft Drag reduction through the use of supersonic natural laminar flow (S-NLF) is currently being explored as a means of increasing aerodynamic efficiency - Tradeoffs work best for business jet class at M<2 Conventional high-speed designs minimize inviscid drag at the expense of viscous drag - Existence of strong spanwise pressure gradient leads to crossflow (CF) while adverse chordwise pressure gradients amplifies and Tollmien-Schlichting (TS) instabilities Aerion Corporation has patented a S-NLF wing design (US Patent No. 5322242) - Low sweep to control CF - dp/dx < 0 on both wing surfaces to stabilize TS - Thin wing with sharp leading edge to minimize wave drag increase due to reduction in sweep NASA and Aerion have partnered to study S-NLF since 1999 Series of S-NLF experiments flown on the NASA F-15B research test bed airplane Infrared (IR) thermography used to characterize transition - Non-intrusive, global, good spatial resolution - Captures significant flow features well

laminar flow↗

Modeling the Ionosphere-Thermosphere Response to a Geomagnetic Storm Using Physics-based Magnetospheric Energy Input: OpenGGCM-CTIM Results

The magnetosphere is a major source of energy for the Earth's ionosphere and thermosphere (IT) system. Current IT models drive the upper atmosphere using empirically calculated magnetospheric energy input. Thus, they do not sufficiently capture the storm-time dynamics, particularly at high latitudes. To improve the prediction capability of IT models, a physics-based magnetospheric input is necessary. Here, we use the Open Global General Circulation Model (OpenGGCM) coupled with the Coupled Thermosphere Ionosphere Model (CTIM). OpenGGCM calculates a three-dimensional global magnetosphere and a two-dimensional high-latitude ionosphere by solving resistive magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equations with solar wind input. CTIM calculates a global thermosphere and a high-latitude ionosphere in three dimensions using realistic magnetospheric inputs from the OpenGGCM. We investigate whether the coupled model improves the storm-time IT responses by simulating a geomagnetic storm that is preceded by a strong solar wind pressure front on August 24, 2005. We compare the OpenGGCM-CTIM results with low-earth-orbit satellite observations and with the model results of Coupled Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Plasmasphere electrodynamics (CTIPe). CTIPe is an up-to-date version of CTIM that incorporates more IT dynamics such as a low-latitude ionosphere and a plasmasphere, but uses empirical magnetospheric input. OpenGGCMCTIM reproduces localized neutral density peaks at approx. 400 km altitude in the high-latitude dayside regions in agreement with in situ observations during the pressure shock and the early phase of the storm. Although CTIPe is in some sense a much superior model than CTIM, it misses these localized enhancements. Unlike the CTIPe empirical input models, OpenGGCM-CTIM more faithfully produces localized increases of both auroral precipitation and ionospheric electric fields near the high-latitude dayside region after the pressure shock and after the storm onset, which in turn effectively heats the thermosphere and causes the neutral density increase at 400 km altitude.

Connor, Hyunju K.↗

Hybrid Reduced Order Model for N2-N2 Interactions for Application to Dissociation and Energy Transfer Processes

Recent work in the aerothermodynamics community has focused on the development of reduced-order models for thermo-chemical non-equilibrium which avoid the restrictive assumptions of multi-temperature models and the prohibitive cost associated with State-to-State (StS) models. In the present work, this is accomplished by lumping energy states together and assuming groups of states are roughly in equilibrium. As a result, the non-equilibrium behavior of a gas can be captured at a reduced computational cost from a full StS simulation. In this work, we present a hybrid grouping model for studying energy transfer and dissociation in a mixture of nitrogen molecules due to N2-N2 reactions. This is accomplished by making use of a grouping strategy informed by data from the N2-N StS kinetic data. However, due to the massive computational cost associated with constructing StS data for the N2-N2 system, the kinetic data for the hybrid grouping model are calculated using the quasi-classical trajectory (QCT) method by sampling states for trajectory within the groups. This general framework is called the Maximum-Entropy Quasi-Classical Trajectory (ME-QCT) method. The primary challenge associated with this method is that rates for reverse grouped reactions cannot be obtained through detailed balance at a group level, due to the variation of group internal temperatures. To construct the full model for N2-N2 grouped kinetics using the ME-QCT method, detailed balance is invoked at the microscopic level, allowing for the calculation of the full kinetic data from QCT. Results will be presented using the full ME-QCT model for the N2-N2 system in an isothermal and isochoric reactor simulation. In addition, simple CFD test cases for a one-dimensional standing shock and for a quasi-one-dimensional nozzle will be used for demonstration of the ME-QCT method. This method allows for the calculation of non-equilibrium behavior for the N2-N2 system without the prohibitive cost of a full StS simulation. Moreover, it enables the construction of a unified model for the dissociating and recombining non-equilibrium flows.

nonequilibrium modeling↗

Application of an Affine Nonlinear Galerkin Reduced-order Model to Compressible Fluid Flows

Galerkin reduced-order models (ROMs) often struggle to accurately capture multiscale fluid physics in challenging flow regimes such as flows experiencing compressibility effects. This in part stems from the global nature of both the basis construction problem and the spectral formulation itself. In this work, a multi-basis ROM is developed in an affine space based on proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) by projecting the full Navier-Stokes equations expressed in terms of the specific volume, velocity, and pressure primitive variables. The model is applied to high-fidelity numerical simulation datasets obtained for a canonical compressible flow configuration: the flow over a backward facing step at different subsonic Mach numbers. It is observed that application of an eigenvalue reassignment (ER) stabilization method is required to avoid early divergence of the ROM predictions for this configuration in the three Mach numbers tested. The sensitivity of the POD-ROM results to the choice of parameters in the stabilization algorithm is discussed.

reduced-order model↗

Application of an Affine Nonlinear Galerkin Reduced-order Model to Compressible Fluid Flows

Galerkin reduced-order models (ROMs) often struggle to accurately capture multiscale fluid physics in challenging flow regimes such as flows experiencing compressibility effects. This in part stems from the global nature of both the basis construction problem and the spectral formulation itself. In this work, a multi-basis ROM is developed in an affine space based on proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) by projecting the full Navier-Stokes equations expressed in terms of the specific volume, velocity, and pressure primitive variables. The model is applied to high-fidelity numerical simulation datasets obtained for a canonical compressible flow configuration: the flow over a backward facing step at different subsonic Mach numbers. It is observed that application of an eigenvalue reassignment (ER) stabilization method is required to avoid early divergence of the ROM predictions for this configuration in the three Mach numbers tested. The sensitivity of the POD-ROM results to the choice of parameters in the stabilization algorithm is discussed.

reduced-order model↗

Brine Pockets in the Icy Shell on Europa: Distribution, Chemistry, and Habitability

On Earth, sea ice is rich in brine, salt, and gas inclusions that form through capturing of seawater during ice formation. Cooling of the ice over time leads to sequential freezing of captured sea-water, precipitation of salts, exsolution of gases, and formation of brine channels and pockets. Distribution and composition of brines in sea ice depend on the rate of ice formation, vertical temperature gradient, and the age of the ice. With aging, the abundance of brine pockets decreases through downward migration. De- spite low temperatures and elevated salinities, brines in sea ice provide a habitat for photosynthetic and chemosynthetic organisms. On Europa, brine pockets and channels could exist in the icy shell that may be from a few km to a few tens of km thick and is probably underlain by a water ocean. If the icy shell is relatively thick, convection could develop, affecting the temperature pattern in the ice. To predict the distribution and chemistry of brine pockets in the icy shell we have combined numerical models of the temperature distribution within a convecting shell, a model for oceanic chemistry, and a model for freezing of Europan oceanic water. Possible effects of brine and gas inclusions on ice rheology and tectonics are discussed.

Zolotov, M. Yu↗

Ablation and Heating During Atmospheric Entry and Its Effect on Airburst Risk

Large meteoroids and asteroids entering the atmosphere endure tremendous heating from the shock heated air, and thereby lose a significant fraction of their mass during atmospheric entry a process known as ablation. The predicted evolution of the asteroids mass as it passes through the atmosphere can affect both the predicted energy deposition profile relevant to an airburst event, or the residual mass that strikes the ground in the case of an impact event. This presentation is divided roughly into two parts. In the first part, an overview of traditional models for heat transfer and ablation that are historically used in the meteor physics community is presented, and the validity in the asteroid entry regime discussed. Sensitivity analyses performed using the recently developed Fragment-Cloud Model (FCM) will be presented which show illustrate the range of sizes and entry parameters for which the predicted asteroid threat is most sensitive to the models for ablation and heat transfer. The second part of the presentation shall focus on recent work done under NASAs Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP) to develop new models for heat transfer and ablation using high-fidelity numerical simulation in concert with state-of-the-art experiments. Coupled computational fluid dynamics (CFD)radiation transport simulations preformed using the state-of-the-art entry modeling tools at NASA show that, for large meteoroids and asteroids, there can significant attenuation of the heat transfer to the surface (95 in some cases) by the products of ablation. In addition to the heat transfer, new models for the material response and ablation of asteroidal material have been developed [cite]. In the current work, we present finding from recent novel experiments performed in the arc jet facility at NASA Ames, which allows us to, in part, simulate the extreme environment experienced by the asteroid during entry. Briefly, the experimental set-up was comprised of a 1.5 conical article of machined H5 chondrite, which was exposed to a high-enthalpy flow resulting in approximately 4 kWcm2 of heating to the surface. A still frame capture from high-speed video taken during this experiment can be seen in Figure 1. In this figure, we can observe some of the major mechanisms for meteoroid ablation, such as melt flow, spallation (mechanical removal of material), and vaporization. Major findings from this, and other experiments will be discussed, as well progress on utilizing the data from the experiments to inform and develop improved models for ablation.

Asteroids↗

Marine wild-capture fisheries after nuclear war

Nuclear war, beyond its devastating direct impacts, is expected to cause global climatic perturbations through injections of soot into the upper atmosphere. Reduced temperature and sunlight could drive unprecedented reductions in agricultural production, endangering global food security. However, the effects of nuclear war on marine wild-capture fisheries, which significantly contribute to the global animal protein and micronutrient supply, remain unexplored. We simulate the climatic effects of six war scenarios on fish biomass and catch globally, using a state-of-the-art Earth system model and global process-based fisheries model. We also simulate how either rapidly increased fish demand (driven by food shortages) or decreased ability to fish (due to infrastructure disruptions), would affect global catches, and test the benefits of strong pre-war fisheries management. We find a decade-long negative climatic impact that intensifies with soot emissions, with global biomass and catch falling by up to 18 ± 3% and 29 ± 7% after a US-Russia war under business-as-usual fishing – similar in magnitude to the end-of-century declines under unmitigated global warming. When war occurs in an overfished state, increasing demand increases short-term (1-2 year) catch by at most ~30% followed by precipitous declines of up to ~70%, thus offsetting only a minor fraction of agricultural losses. However, effective pre-war management that rebuilds fish biomass could ensure a short-term catch buffer large enough to replace ~43 ± 35% of today’s global animal protein production. This buffering function in the event of a global food emergency adds to the many previously-known economic and ecological benefits of effective and precautionary fisheries management.

food from the ocean↗