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At least 649 records · Page 36
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2015

Environmental Consequences of Big Nasty Impacts on the Early Earth

The geological record of the Archean Earth is spattered with impact spherules from a dozen or so major cosmic collisions involving Earth and asteroids or comets (Lowe, Byerly 1986, 2015). Extrapolation of the documented deposits suggests that most of these impacts were as big or bigger than the Chicxulub event that famously ended the reign of the thunder lizards. As the Archean impacts were greater, the environmental effects were also greater. The number and magnitude of the impacts is bounded by the lunar record. There are no lunar craters bigger than Chicxulub that date to Earth's mid-to-late Archean. Chance dictates that Earth experienced no more than approximately 10 impacts bigger than Chicxulub between 2.5 billion years and 3.5 billion years, the biggest of which were approximately 30-100 times more energetic, comparable to the Orientale impact on the Moon (1x10 (sup 26) joules). To quantify the thermal consequences of big impacts on old Earth, we model the global flow of energy from the impact into the environment. The model presumes that a significant fraction of the impact energy goes into ejecta that interact with the atmosphere. Much of this energy is initially in rock vapor, melt, and high speed particles. (i) The upper atmosphere is heated by ejecta as they reenter the atmosphere. The mix of hot air, rock vapor, and hot silicates cools by thermal radiation. Rock raindrops fall out as the upper atmosphere cools. (ii) The energy balance of the lower atmosphere is set by radiative exchange with the upper atmosphere and with the surface, and by evaporation of seawater. Susequent cooling is governed by condensation of water vapor. (iii) The oceans are heated by thermal radiation and rock rain and cooled by evaporation. Surface waters become hot and salty; if a deep ocean remains it is relatively cool. Subsequently water vapor condenses to replenish the oceans with hot fresh water (how fresh depending on continental weathering, which might be rather rapid under the circumstances). (iv) The surface temperature of dry land is presumed to be the same as the lower atmosphere. A thermal wave propagates into the land at a rate set by conduction. Impacts not greatly larger than Chicxulub can raise the surface temperature by tens, hundreds, or even thousands of degrees, and evaporate meters to hundreds of meters of water. The biggest should have vitrified exposed dry land. More results are for the talk, as here we have run out of space.

Archean Earth↗
NASA NTRS2015

NASA Fuel Tank Wireless Power and Signal Study

Hydro Technologies has developed a custom electronics and mechanical framework for interfacing with off-the-shelf sensors to achieve through barrier sensing solutions. The core project technology relies on Hydro Technologies Wireless Power and Signal Interface (Wi psi) System for transmitting data and power wirelessly using magnetic fields. To accomplish this, Wi psi uses a multi-frequency local magnetic field to produce magnetic fields capable of carrying data and power through almost any material such as metals, seawater, concrete, and air. It will also work through layers of multiple materials.

Merrill, Garrick↗
NASA NTRS2016

Implementation of an Analytical Raman Scattering Correction for Satellite Ocean-Color Processing

Raman scattering of photons by seawater molecules is an inelastic scattering process. This effect can contribute significantly to the water-leaving radiance signal observed by space-borne ocean-color spectroradiometers. If not accounted for during ocean-color processing, Raman scattering can cause biases in derived inherent optical properties (IOPs). Here we describe a Raman scattering correction (RSC) algorithm that has been integrated within NASA's standard ocean-color processing software. We tested the RSC with NASA's Generalized Inherent Optical Properties algorithm (GIOP). A comparison between derived IOPs and in situ data revealed that the magnitude of the derived backscattering coefficient and the phytoplankton absorption coefficient were reduced when the RSC was applied, whilst the absorption coefficient of colored dissolved and detrital matter remained unchanged. Importantly, our results show that the RSC did not degrade the retrieval skill of the GIOP. In addition, a timeseries study of oligotrophic waters near Bermuda showed that the RSC did not introduce unwanted temporal trends or artifacts into derived IOPs.

SeaDAS↗
NASA NTRS2016

State of the Carbon Cycle - Consequences of Rising Atmospheric CO2

The rise of atmospheric CO2, largely attributable to human activity through fossil fuel emissions and land-use change, has been dampened by carbon uptake by the ocean and terrestrial biosphere. We outline the consequences of this carbon uptake as direct and indirect effects on terrestrial and oceanic systems and processes for different regions of North America and the globe. We assess the capacity of these systems to continue to act as carbon sinks. Rising CO2 has decreased seawater pH; this process of ocean acidification has impacted some marine species and altered fundamental ecosystem processes with further effects likely. In terrestrial ecosystems, increased atmospheric CO2 causes enhanced photosynthesis, net primary production, and increased water-use efficiency. Rising CO2 may change vegetation composition and carbon storage, and widespread increases in water use efficiency likely influence terrestrial hydrology and biogeochemical cycling. Consequences for human populations include changes to ecosystem services including cultural activities surrounding land use, agricultural or harvesting practices. Commercial fish stocks have been impacted and crop production yields have been changed as a result of rising CO2. Ocean and terrestrial effects are contingent on, and feedback to, global climate change. Warming and modified precipitation regimes impact a variety of ecosystem processes, and the combination of climate change and rising CO2 contributes considerable uncertainty to forecasting carbon sink capacity in the ocean and on land. Disturbance regime (fire and insects) are modified with increased temperatures. Fire frequency and intensity increase, and insect lifecycles are disrupted as temperatures move out of historical norms. Changes in disturbance patterns modulate the effects of rising CO2 depending on ecosystem type, disturbance frequency, and magnitude of events. We discuss management strategies designed to limit the rise of atmospheric CO2 and reduce uncertainty in forecasts of decadal and centennial feedbacks of rising atmospheric CO2 on carbon storage.

Carbon Cycle↗
NASA NTRS2015

Space Based Measurements for Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide: a New Tool for Monitoring Our Environment

Fossil fuel combustion, deforestation, and other human activities are now adding almost 40 billion tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere each year. Interestingly, as these emissions have increased over time, natural "sinks" in land biosphere and oceans have absorbed roughly half of this CO2, reducing the rate of atmospheric buildup by a half. Measurements of the increasing acidity (pH) of seawater indicate that the ocean absorbs one quarter of this CO2. Another quarter is apparently being absorbed by the land biosphere, but the identity and location of these natural land CO2 "sinks" are still unknown. The existing ground-based greenhouse gas monitoring network provides an accurate record of the atmospheric buildup, but still does not have the spatial resolution or coverage needed to identify or quantify CO2 sources and sinks.

OCO-2↗
NASA NTRS2017

Electrochemical Detection of the Molecules of Life

All forms of life on Earth contain cellular machinery that can transform and regulate chemical energy through metabolic pathways. These processes are oxidation-reduction reactions that are performed by four key classes of molecules: flavins, nicotinamaides, porphyrins, and quinones. By detecting the electrochemical interaction of these redox-active molecules with an electrode, a method of differentiating them by their class could be established and incorporated into future life-detecting missions. This body of work investigates the electrochemistry of ubiquitous molecules found in life and how they may be detected. Molecules can oxidise or reduce the surface of an electrode - giving or receiving electrons - and these interactions are represented by changes in current with respect to an applied voltage. This relationship varies with: electrolyte type and concentration, working electrode material, the redox-active molecule itself, and scan rate. Flavin adenine dinucleotide (FAD), riboflavin, nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide (NADH), and anthraquinone are all molecules found intracellularly in almost all living organisms. An organism-synthesised extracellular redox-active molecule, Plumbagin, was also selected as part of this study. The goal of this work is to detect these molecules in seawater and assess its application in searching for life on Ocean Worlds.

astrobiolog↗
NASA NTRS2016

Carbon Monoxide and the Potential for Prebiotic Chemistry on Habitable Planets Around Main Sequence M Stars

Lifeless planets with CO2 atmospheres produce CO by CO2 photolysis. On planets around M dwarfs, CO is a long-lived atmospheric compound, as long as UV emission due to the stars chromospheric activity lasts, and the sink of CO and O2 in seawater is small compared to its atmospheric production. Atmospheres containing reduced compounds, like CO, may undergo further energetic and chemical processing to give rise to organic compounds of potential importance for the origin of life. We calculated the yield of organic compounds from CO2-rich atmospheres of planets orbiting M dwarf stars, which were previously simulated by Domagal- Goldman et al. (2014) and Harman et al. (2015), by cosmic rays and lightning using results of experiments by Miyakawaet al. (2002) and Schlesinger and Miller (1983a, 1983b). Stellar protons from active stars may be important energy sources for abiotic synthesis and increase production rates of biological compounds by at least 2 orders of magnitude compared to cosmic rays. Simple compounds such as HCN and H2CO are more readily synthesized than more complex ones, such as amino acids and uracil (considered here as an example), resulting in higher yields for the former and lower yields for the latter. Electric discharges are most efficient when a reducing atmosphere is present. Nonetheless, atmospheres with high quantities of CO2 are capable of producing higher amounts of prebiotic compounds, given that CO is constantly produced in the atmosphere. Our results further support planetary systems around M dwarf stars as candidates for supporting life or its origin.

M stars↗
NASA NTRS2019

Ocean Color Instrument Integration and Testing

This paper describes the plans, flows, key facilities, components and equipment necessary to fully integrate, functionally test, qualify and calibrate the Ocean Color Instrument (OCI) on the Plankton, Aerosols, Clouds, and oceans Ecosystem (PACE) observatory. PACE is currently in the design phase of mission development. It is scheduled to launch in 2022, extending and improving NASA's twenty-year record of satellite observations of global ocean biology, aerosols and clouds. PACE will advance the assessment of ocean health by measuring the distribution of phytoplankton, which are small plants and algae that sustain the marine food web. It will also continue systematic records of key atmospheric variables associated with air quality and the Earth's climate. PACE's primary sensor, the OCI, is a highly advanced optical spectrometer that will be used to measure properties of light over portions of the electromagnetic spectrum. It will enable continuous measurement of light at finer wavelength resolution than previous NASA satellite sensors, extending key system ocean color data records for climate studies. The color of the ocean is determined by the interaction of sunlight with substances or particles present in seawater such as chlorophyll. By monitoring global phytoplankton distribution and abundance with unprecedented detail, the OCI will contribute to a better understanding of the complex systems that drive ocean ecology and it's impacts on global fisheries. This paper will focus on the Integration and Test (I&T) activities for OCI while it is at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. The OCI integration consists of assembly and alignment of the rotating telescope, electronics box integration, fixed deck assembly integration, thermal systems integration and the final assembly and testing. This I&T phase will be followed by the OCI calibration and characterization, environmental tests which include electromagnetic interference (EMI)/electromagnetic compatibility (EMC), vibration with sine sweep, acoustics, shock, thermal balance, thermal vacuum, mass properties and center of gravity. This paper will briefly discuss OCI shipment and delivery to the spacecraft vendor for observatory level I&T as well as some launch preparation activities.

Petro, Susanna↗
NASA NTRS2018

Remote Sensing of the Ocean Surface Refractive Index via Short-Wave Infrared Polarimetry

The linear polarization of sunlight reflected by ocean surfaces in the shortwave infrared (SWIR), at geometries where specular reflection dominates the signal, is a direct function of the refractive index of the surface microlayer(SML). This simple physical concept is at the base of a novel technique presented in this study. We invert observations obtained by the airborne Research Scanning Polarimeter (RSP) in the sun glint region, where each pixel's radiance is dominated by the signal originating from the wave slopes oriented precisely to cause specular reflection. The SWIR wavelength ensures minimization of aerosol interference when radiance travels through the atmosphere; strong absorption by the water body then limits the penetration depth to the first micrometer or so, effectively probing the SML. The resulting Degree of Linear Polarization (DoLP) is then governed by the refractive index via the Fresnel law for the specfic pixel geometry, independently of the wind speed. The selected dataset concerns several field deployments from both low- and high-altitude aircraft, including total reflectance measurements with the sole purpose of accounting for the residual aerosol effect.Stable retrievals from transects above pure seawater yielded values of refractive index that match the values published in the literature within an accuracy of 5 x 10 [superscript 4]. Flying over the oil spill caused by the explosion of the Deepwater Horizon platform, detected variations were found compatible with the presence of an oil slick. The robustness of the results, guaranteedby the high RSP polarimetric accuracy (less than or equal to 0:2%), opens the possibility for remote-sensing detection of other entities that similarly affect the refractive index including whitecaps, microplastics, biological gels, seaweed and grass mats.

Surface Microlayer↗
NASA NTRS2019

Sensitivity of Inherent Optical Properties from Ocean Reflectance Inversion Models to Satellite Instrument Wavelength Suites

The Earth science community seeks to develop climate data records (CDRs) from satellite measurements of ocean color, a continuous data record that now exceeds 20 years. Space agencies will launch additional instruments in the coming decade that will continue this data record, including the NASA PACE spectrometer. Inherent optical properties (IOPs) quantitatively describe the absorbing and scattering constituents of seawater and can be estimated from satellite-observed spectroradiometric data using semi-analytical algorithms (SAAs). SAAs exploit the contrasting optical signatures of constituent matter at spectral bands observed by satellite sensors. SAA performance, therefore, depends on the spectral resolution of the satellite spectroradiometer. A CDR spanning SeaWiFS, MODIS, OLCI, and PACE, for example, would include IOPs derived using varied wavelength suites if all available wavelengths were considered. Here, we explored differences in derived IOPs that stem simply from the use of (eight) different wavelength suites of input radiometric measurements. Using synthesized data and SeaWiFS Level-3 mission-long composites, we demonstrated equivalent SAA performance for all wavelength suites, but that IOP retrievals vary by several percent across wavelength suites and as a function of water type. The differences equate to roughly ≤ 6, 12, and 7% for a(sub dg)(443), a(sub ph)(443), and b(sub bp)(443), respectively, for waters with C(sub a) ≤ 1 mg -cu m. These values shrink for sensors with similar wavelength suites (e.g., SeaWiFS, MODIS, and MERIS) and rise to substantially larger values for higher C(sub a) waters. Our results also indicate that including 400 nm (in the case of OLCI) influences the derived IOPs, using longer wavelengths (>600 nm) influences the derived IOPs when there is a red signal, and, including additional spectral information shows potential for improved IOP estimation, but not without revisiting SAA parameterizations and execution. While modest in scope, we believe this study contributes to the knowledge base for CDR development. The implication of ignoring such an analysis as CDRs continue to be developed is a prolonged inability to distinguish between algorithmic and environmental contributions to trends and anomalies in the IOP time-series.

ocean color satellites↗
NASA NTRS2019

The Connected Isotopic Water Cycle in the Community Earth System Model Version 1

Because of the pervasive role of water in the Earth system, the relative abundances of stable isotopologues of water are valuable for understanding atmospheric, oceanic, and biospheric processes, and for interpreting paleoclimate proxy reconstructions. Isotopologues are transported by both largescale and turbulent flows, and the ratio of heavy to light isotopologues changes due to fractionation that can accompany condensation and evaporation processes. Correctly predicting the isotopic distributions requires resolving the relationships between largescale ocean and atmospheric circulation and smallerscale hydrological processes, which can be accomplished within a coupled climate modeling framework. Here we present the water isotopeenabled version of the Community Earth System Model version 1 (iCESM1), which simulates global variations in water isotopic ratios in the atmosphere, land, ocean, and sea ice. In a transient Last Millennium simulation covering the 850-2005 period, iCESM1 correctly captures the latetwentiethcentury structure of δ(exp 18)O and δD over the global oceans, with more limited accuracy over land. The relationship between salinity and seawater δ(exp 18)O is also well represented over the observational period, including interbasin variations. We illustrate the utility of coupled, isotopeenabled simulations using both Last Millennium simulations and freshwater hosing experiments with iCESM1. Closing the isotopic mass balance between all components of the coupled model provides new confidence in the underlying depiction of the water cycle in CESM, while also highlighting areas where the underlying hydrologic balance can be improved. The iCESM1 is poised to be a vital community resource for ongoing model development with both modern and paleoclimate applications.

Brady, E.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Interdisciplinary Studies of a Marine Microbial Mat Ecosystem, Baja California, Mexico

Cyanobacterial mats in extensive seawater evaporation ponds at Guerrero Negro, Baja California, Mexico, have been excellent subjects for interdisciplinary research. Exportadora de Sal, S.A. (ESSA) has maintained this solar saltern since the 1950s. The following entities provided research support: NASA Exobiology (1984-1988), Precambrian Paleobiology Research Group (1986-1993), NAI (1998-2010), and Exobiology (2010-2016). This summary emphasizes research that was supported by the NAI and conducted by its teams.

Des Marais, David J.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Biogeochemical Effects of Rising Atmospheric CO2 on Terrestrial and Ocean Systems

Rising carbon dioxide (CO2) has decreased seawater pH at long-term observing stations around the world, including in the open ocean north of Oahu, Hawaii, near Alaska's Aleutian Islands, the Gulf of Maine shore, and on Gray's Reef in the southeastern United States. This ocean acidification process has already affected some marine species and altered fundamental ecosystem processes, and further effects are likely. While atmospheric CO rises at approximately the same rate all over the globe, its non-climate effects on land vary depending on climate and dominant species. In terrestrial ecosystems, rising atmospheric CO concentrations are expected to increase plant photosynthesis, growth, and water-use efficiency, though these effects are reduced when nutrients, drought or other factors limit plant growth. Rising CO would likely change carbon storage and influence terrestrial hydrology and biogeochemical cycling, but concomitant effects on vegetation composition and nutrient feedbacks are challenging to predict, making decadal forecasts uncertain. Consequences of rising atmospheric CO are expected to include difficult-to-predict changes in the ecosystem services that terrestrial and ocean systems provide to humans. For instance, ocean acidification resulting from rising CO has decreased the supply of larvae that sustains commercial shellfish production in the northwestern United States. In addition, CO fertilization (increases) plus warming (decreases) are changing terrestrial crop yields. Continued persistence of uptake of carbon by the land and ocean is uncertain. Climate and environmental change create complex feedbacks to the carbon cycle and it is not clear how feedbacks modulate future effects of rising CO on carbon sinks. These are several mechanisms that could reduce future sink capacity.

Biogeochemical↗
NASA NTRS2019

Volcanic Eruption Signatures in the Isotope Enabled Last Millennium Ensemble

Explosive volcanic eruptions are one of the largest natural climate perturbations, but few observational constraints exist on either the climate responses to eruptions or the properties (size, hemispheric aerosol distribution, etc.) of the eruptions themselves. Paleoclimate records are thus important sources of information on past eruptions, often through the measurement of oxygen isotopic ratios (𝛿18O) in natural archives. However, since many processes affect 𝛿18O, the dynamical interpretation of these records can be quite complex. Here we present results from new, isotope-enabled members of the Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble, documenting eruption-induced 𝛿18O variations throughout the climate system. Eruptions create significant perturbations in the 𝛿18O of precipitation and soil moisture in central/eastern North America, via excitation of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Monsoon Asia and Australia also exhibit strong precipitation and soil 𝛿18O anomalies; in these cases, 𝛿18O may reflect changes to El Niño-Southern Oscillation phase following eruptions. Salinity and seawater 𝛿18O patterns demonstrate the importance of both local hydrologic shifts and the phasing of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation response, both along the equator and in the subtropics. In all cases, the responses are highly sensitive to eruption latitude, which points to the utility of isotopic records in constraining aerosol distribution patterns associated with past eruptions. This is most effective using precipitation 𝛿18O; all Southern eruptions and the majority (66%) of Northern eruptions can be correctly identified. This work thus serves as a starting point for new, quantitative uses of isotopic records for understanding volcanic impacts on climate.

Stevenson, S.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Community Composition and Photosynthetic Physiology of Phytoplankton in the Western Subarctic Pacific Near the Kuril Islands With Special Reference to Iron Availability

The western subarctic Pacific (WSP) is known as one of the most productive regions among the world's oceans in spring. However, its oceanic waters are also known as a high‐nutrient, low‐chlorophyll region during summer due to low iron (Fe) availability in seawater. Indeed, recent studies have demonstrated that the distribution of Fe in the WSP is complex and heterogeneous. This study thus investigated the effects of Fe availability on the community composition and photophysiology of surface phytoplankton from coastal to offshore waters in the WSP in the summer of 2014. Although relatively high concentrations (>2 mg/m3) of chlorophyll (chl) a were found in the Sea of Okhotsk and some coastal waters, low chl a concentrations (<1 mg/m3) were commonly observed in offshore waters. Based on dissolved Fe and macronutrient concentrations, we deduced that low Fe availability limited phytoplankton growth in offshore waters, whereas low silicate and/or nitrate levels limited growth in the shelf areas. Scanning electron microscopy also revealed that the centric diatom Chaetoceros exclusively dominated the diatom assemblages in the shelf and coexisted with pennate diatoms in offshore waters, respectively. Primary productivity in surface waters was negatively correlated with the bottom of the euphotic layer or the light saturation index of the photosynthesis‐irradiance curve, which indicates that the phytoplankton assemblages were well acclimated to in situ light conditions regardless of the water masses.

Yoshida, Kazuhiro↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

TPSAS-NF1676L-13210-DND

Pumice rafts are an occasional byproduct of explosive volcanic eruptions that occur near bodies of water. Rafts can be tens of kilometers across and are a hazard to shipping, as the pumice can block the seawater intake valves for ships’ engine cooling systems. In particular, this research focuses on pumice rafts that emanated from the eruptions near Tonga in 2006, Yemen in 2007, and the Chile-Argentina border in 2011 using data from Landsat 5 & 7, MODIS onboard the Aqua and Terra satellites, and ALI aboard the EO-1 satellite. False color composites were created to facilitate visual identification of pumice rafts in high resolution images. Additionally, a material of interest subpixel classification was implemented to automatically demarcate the extent of the pumice rafts. MODIS was found to be the most useful sensor for tracking larger rafts in the open ocean, while Landsat 5 & 7 and ALI were more effective in tracking smaller rafts in lakes and rivers. The pumice rafts generally took on a temperature between that of the ambient air and water temperature. The data collected for this study has been compiled to provide an effective tool for further investigation of pumice rafts.

Paula Chojnacki↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Algorithmic Detection of Elemental Biosignatures

Machine learning models that classify a sample as indicative or non-indicative of life could play an important role in life-detection missions. Their predictions result from agnostic algorithms and thereby add redundancy to judgements resulting from human expertise. Additionally, their important features can reveal the most informative measurements within the operational constraints of a life-detection mission. The Ladder of Life Detection (Neveu 2018) identifies the need for an understanding of how combinations of multiple biosignatures affect overall confidence. The present work provides a starting point to answer this need, and future work will expand the data types to obtain even more predictive combinations of features. Elemental abundance was chosen as a starting set of features due to its availability in diverse sample types, which are needed to train a generalizable model. A standardized dataset was collected, including 35 non-indicative, e.g., lunar rock, basalt; 19 indicative mixed, e.g., seawater, agricultural soil; 46 indicative non-alive, e.g., coal, chalk; and 10 indicative alive, e.g., biofilm, bacteria. This dataset could be valuable for complementary biosignature research. The samples were standardized to the same limit of detection of a simulated mission scenario. Four classification models were used: k-nearest neighbors (KNN), logistic regression (LR), linear support vector machines (SVM), and Gaussian naïve Bayes (GNB). To obtain feature importances, KNN was run on three principal components of the training data and LR and SVM were run with L1 and L2 regularization. The performances and feature importances of the six model variants on 40:60 train to validation ratios were assessed with Monte Carlo simulations. ROC AUC and mean accuracy scores ranged between 82% - 94%, with sensitivity greater than specificity. For indicative of life predictors, all models had C and Ca as strong and Cl as medium; a majority of models had N, K, and P as medium. For non-indicative of life predictors, all models had Si as strong, and a majority of models had Mg, Al, and Ti as medium. Varied elements were Fe (slightly non-indicative), H (slightly indicative), O (widely varied), Na, Mn, and S. These results serve as a proof of concept and suggest important elemental signals beyond merely the CHNOPS of Earth-based life.

Algorithmic↗
NASA NTRS2021

Drivers of Air-Sea CO2 Flux Seasonality and its Long-Term Changes in the NASA-GISS Model CMIP6 Submission.

Climate change will affect both the mean state and seasonality of marine physical and biogeochemical properties, with important implications for the oceanic sink of atmospheric CO2. Here, we investigate the seasonal cycle of the air-sea exchange of CO2 and pCO2,sw (surface seawater pCO2) and their long term changes using the CMIP6 submission of the NASA-GISS modelE (GISS-E2.1-G). In comparison to the CMIP5 submission (GISS-E2-R), we find that on the global scale, the seasonal cycles of the CO2 flux and NPP have improved, while the seasonal cycles of DIC, alkalinity, and macronutrients have deteriorated. Moreover, for all ocean biogeochemietry fields, changes in skill between E2.1-G and E2-R display large regional variability. For E2.1-G, we find similar modeled and observed CO2 flux seasonal cycles in the subtropical gyres, where seasonal anomalies of pCO2,sw and the flux are temperature-driven, and the Southern Ocean, where anomalies are DIC-driven. Biases in these seasonal cycles are largest in the subpolar and equatorial regions, driven by a combination of biases in temperature, DIC, alkalinity, and wind speed. When comparing the historical simulation to a simulation with an idealized increase in atmospheric pCO2, we find that the seasonal amplitudes of the CO2 flux and pCO2,sw generally increase. These changes are produced by increases in the sensitivity of pCO2,sw to its respective drivers. These findings are consistent with the notion that the sensitivity of pCO2,sw is expected to increase due to the increase of atmospheric pCO2, with changes in the seasonality of temperature, DIC, and alkalinity having secondary influences.

Air-Sea CO2↗