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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Data and scripts associated with “When do Riverine Systems 'Feel the Burn'? Simulating How Burn Extent and Severity Modulate Hydrologic Controls on Biogeochemical Export” (v2)

This data package is associated with the publication “When do Riverine Systems 'Feel the Burn'? Simulating How Burn Extent and Severity Modulate Hydrologic Controls on Biogeochemical Export” published in Water Resources Research (Wampler et al. 2025; preprint: https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.174438106.63564767/v1). This study used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a processed based model to explore the impacts of area burned and burn severity on streamflow, nitrate, and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in two test basins: a semi-arid, mixed land use basin and a humid, primarily forested basin. We developed 1800 wildfire scenarios that we ran in each basin: 20 different burn extents (5 to 100% by 5%), 3 different burn severities (low, moderate, and high), and 30 different post-fire precipitation scenarios. We also ran an additional 30 scenarios associated with no wildfire for the 30 post-fire precipitation scenarios. For each scenario we were interested in the change in runoff ratio (streamflow) and average concentration and annual loads (nitrate and DOC) across the wildfire scenarios. This data package contains the data and scripts required to build SWAT models for the two test basins, create and run the wildfire scenarios, and generate the data summaries and figures used in the associated manuscript. This data package was originally published in March 2025. It was updated in January 2026 (v2; new and modified files) to include the final files after the manuscript went through reviews. See the change history section below for more details. For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

SCALE Demonstration for Sodium-Cooled Fast Reactor Fuel Cycle Analysis

In support of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission non-light-water reactor fuel cycle demonstration project, SCALE 6.3.1 capabilities for radionuclide characterization, criticality, and shielding were demonstrated for scenarios in the sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) nuclear fuel cycle. Three postulated accident scenarios were selected for analysis in this work. As a basis for all scenarios, irradiated fuel inventories were generated using SCALE/ORIGAMI. To cover multiple SFR design choices, two different types of SFR fuel, uranium/transuranic-loaded and U-based fuels, were considered. For the first scenario, SCALE/MAVRIC was used to calculate the radiation shielding and dose rates inside and outside of the containment building due to a drop of a spent fuel assembly from the fuel-handling system during unloading inside the containment building. For the second scenario, potential critical configurations in an electrofiner were investigated through criticality calculations with SCALE/CSAS. For the third scenario, the activity of the waste salt from an electrorefiner was evaluated using SCALE/ORIGEN. The dose rate produced by the analyzed SFR assemblies is similar to that produced by a typical pressurized water reactor (PWR) fuel assembly with a discharge burnup of 50 GWd/MTU, with the same cooling time of 10 days. The criticality analyses suggested that the different electrorefiner configurations have a large margin to criticality. The activity analysis of the electrofiner waste revealed that shielding and cooling may be required for the waste salt that contains transuranics and fission products produced by the electrorefiner because of the high activity of the waste salt. In general, the application of various capabilities in the SCALE code system for SFR fuel inventory generation, criticality, and shielding was successfully demonstrated for the selected scenarios in the SFR nuclear fuel cycle. Additional analyses can be performed to provide more accurate results when more details of the SFR nuclear fuel cycles are available, for example, the dimension of the electrorefiner and the salt compositions during reprocessing.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Power Supply Options for the Marpi Landfill, Saipan: Feasibility Study

The Marpi Landfill, located on the northern end of the island of Saipan in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI), is powered by an on-site diesel generator that only operates when the landfill is open and staffed. The CNMI Office of Planning and Development (OPD) aspires to provide the Marpi Landfill with 24-hour power availability despite its remote location and to increase the use of sustainable energy within the CNMI. CNMI has a 20% target for renewable energy consumption, as documented in Sustainable Development Goal #7 in the Comprehensive Sustainable Development Plan (OPD 2021) and the renewable portfolio standard (GPO 2014). To accomplish these goals, the U.S. Department of Energy, through its Interagency Reimbursable Work Agreement with the Federal Emergency Management Agency, funded this feasibility study to assess and prioritize power supply options for the landfill. The availability of solar and wind resources varies seasonally, as does the load. A BESS can help to balance mismatches between generation and load on short (hourly or daily) timescales, but not across seasons. The microgrid scenarios evaluated for Marpi consider options for technology combinations that will both meet the load and utilize available resources, despite the challenge presented by higher loads and lower solar and wind availability during the rainy season, depicted in Figure ES-2. The seven scenarios evaluated are summarized in Table ES-1. Each scenario’s configuration was optimized to include component capacities that reduce capital and operating costs, meet the load, and minimize carbon emissions, as feasible. The costs and levelized cost of energy (LCOE) shown do not assume the use of any grant funding or incentives, although these options were also evaluated. To assist with decision-making, a prioritization matrix (Table ES-3) was created to compare the microgrid scenarios evaluated in this feasibility study according to various stakeholder priorities. The prioritization metrics were chosen based on discussions with OPD and will be finalized through stakeholder feedback. The scenarios were given a score between 1 and 7 for each prioritization metric (the lower the score, the higher the priority), and total scores were calculated using assigned weights based on the relative priority of each metric. The total scores were then ranked to produce a prioritized list of microgrid scenarios based on the metrics most important to the project stakeholders. As shown, scenario 4 (100 kW of solar PV, a 75 kW/300 kWh BESS, and 160 kW of diesel generation) ranks highest.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Technology Case Study: Techno-Economic and Life Cycle Analysis for Microalgae Conversion Pathways to Fuels and Products

This technology case study report details the cost and sustainability prospects for an emerging feedstock - microalgae - converted to fuels and products via a fractionation and upgrading approach termed combined algae processing (CAP). Detailed techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life cycle analysis (LCA) are conducted for the conversion of farmed algae biomass, with two primary scenarios considering the conversion of either high-compositional-quality biomass enriched in lipids (high-lipid [HL]) or lower-quality biomass enriched in protein (high-protein [HP]). Each scenario employs a different biorefinery configuration tailored towards extracting the maximum value from the given biomass composition. The HL scenario produces fuels and non-isocyanate polyurethane (NIPU) as the primary products, while the HP scenario products fuels and a residual solid coproduct which can be used as a co-feed for producing thermoplastics. The results for the HL scenario were particularly promising, with a minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) of $\$$3.68 per gasoline gallon equivalent (GGE) and fuel GHG emissions translating to 54%-76% reduction compared to petroleum fuels depending on the coproduct handling method used. In contrast, the HP scenario faced more challenges in producing biofuels economically, projecting an MFSP of $\$$7.92/GGE despite significant revenues from the residual algae solids. LCA results for the HP case reflected a 24% reduction potential in biorefinery-level GHG emissions. However, these GHG reductions were primarily associated with the thermoplastic coproduct, which accounted for 93% of all biorefinery outputs by mass. Using a process-level allocation method, carbon intensity results were less promising, indicating a net increase in fuel GHG emissions versus petroleum fuels and highlighting the reliance of this scenario on the thermoplastic coproduct.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Reaching 1.5 and 2.0 °C global surface temperature targets using stratospheric aerosol geoengineering

A new set of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering (SAG) model experiments has been performed with Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM6) that are based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) overshoot scenario (SSP5-34-OS) as a baseline scenario to limit global warming to 1.5 or 2.0 °C above 1850–1900 conditions. The overshoot scenario allows us to applying a peak-shaving scenario that reduces the needed duration and amount of SAG application compared to a high forcing scenario. In addition, a feedback algorithm identifies the needed amount of sulfur dioxide injections in the stratosphere at four pre-defined latitudes, 30 °N, 15 °N, 15 °S, and 30 °S, to reach three surface temperature targets: global mean temperature, and interhemispheric and pole-to-Equator temperature gradients. These targets further help to reduce side effects, including overcooling in the tropics, warming of high latitudes, and large shifts in precipitation patterns. These experiments are therefore relevant for investigating the impacts on society and ecosystems. Comparisons to SAG simulations based on a high emission pathway baseline scenario (SSP5-85) are also performed to investigate the dependency of impacts using different injection amounts to offset surface warming by SAG. We find that changes from present-day conditions around 2020 in some variables depend strongly on the defined temperature target (1.5 °C vs. 2.0 °C). These include surface air temperature and related impacts, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, which impacts ocean net primary productivity, and changes in ice sheet surface mass balance, which impacts sea level rise. Others, including global precipitation changes and the recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole, depend strongly on the amount of SAG application. Furthermore, land net primary productivity as well as ocean acidification depend mostly on the global atmospheric CO 2 concentration and therefore the baseline scenario. Multi-model comparisons of experiments that include strong mitigation and carbon dioxide removal with some SAG application are proposed to assess the robustness of impacts on societies and ecosystems.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data for Grogan et al. "Bringing Hydrologic Realism to Water Markets"

This data set provides model output and post-processing files required to reproduce the results, tables, and figures in the paper "Bringing Hydrologic Realism to Water Markets" by Grogan et al. (in review). Other input data used in this study includes: Lisk, M., Grogan, D., Zuidema, S., Caccese, R., Peklak, D., Zheng, J., Fisher-Vanden, K., Lammers, R., Olmstead, S., & Fowler, L. (2023). Harmonized Database of Western U.S. Water Rights (HarDWR) (Version v1) [Data set]. MSD-LIVE Data Repository. https://doi.org/10.57931/2205619 Two models were used in this study: (1) The University of New Hampshire Water Balance Model WBM, and (2) a Water Market Model. Market model code and model output post-processing code that make use of these data can be found here Model output files are: 1. WBM output files: scenario[x]_wbm_output.zip Where [x] is one of 1, 2, 2a, 3, and 3a Each zipped directory contains 7 gridded NetCDF files, each reporting the 10-year annual average value of a given variable, in units of average mm/day: File Name: wbm_indUseGross_yc.nc; Description: Water withdrawals by industry (part of the urban sector) File Name: wbm_domUseGross_yc.nc; Description: Water withdrawals by the domestic sector (part of the urban sector) File Name: wbm_irrigationGross_yc.nc; Description: Water withdrawals for agriculture File Name: wbm_irrigationExtra_yc.nc; Description: Water withdrawals from unsustainable groundwater for agriculture File Name: wbm_indUseEvap_yc.nc; Description: Consumptive water use by industry File Name: wbm_domUseEvap_yc.nc; Description: Consumptive water use by the domestic sector File Name: wbm_irrigationNet_yc.nc; Description: Consumptive water use by agriculture The file full_cell_area.nc gives the area of each grid cell in km2, which is used for converting water depth to water volume. 2. Water market model output & post processing output Folder: marketTrdSummaries/ Description: Files in this folder are used as input to code 1_WelfareCalculation_actual_trades.R. They summarize historical water right trade transactions in each state. File Name: welfare_gain_by_state_sector.csv; Description: Welfare gains by state and sector, as shown in Figure 3F. Used in code Figure3.R and produced (as a .xlsx file) by code 2_DemandCurves_simulated_trades.R File Name: welfare_data_actual.rdata; Description: welfare gains by WMA from actual historical trades, as shown in Figure 3A. This data is the output of code 1_WelfareCalculation_actual_trades.R File Name: welfare_summary_simulated.xlsx; Description: Welfare gains by state as simulated by the market model in Scenario 1. Produced by code 2_DemandCurves_simulated_trades.R, and used in code 4_WelfareCalculation.R. File Name: welfare_summary_cutoffs.xlsx; Description: Welfare gains by state as simulated by the market model in Scenario 2. Produced by code 3_DemandCurves_simulated_trades_cutoffs.R, and used in code 4_WelfareCalculation.R. File Name: welfare_summary_cutoffs_SGMS.xlsx; Description: Welfare gains by state as simulated by the market model in Scenario 2a. Produced by code 3_DemandCurves_simulated_trades_cutoffs.R, and used in code 4_WelfareCalculation.R. File Name: welfare_data_actual.rdata; Description: Spatial data, actual historical welfare gains by WMA as shown in Figure 3A. Produced by code 4_WelfareCalculation.R and used by code Figure3.R. File Name: welfare_data_simulated.rdata; Description: Spatial data, simulated Scenario 1 welfare gains by WMA as shown in Figure 3B. Produced by code 4_WelfareCalculation.R and used by code Figure3.R. File Name: welfare_data_simulated_cutoffs.rdata; Description: Spatial data, simulated Scenario 2 welfare gains by WMA. Produced by code 4_WelfareCalculation.R and used by code Figure3.R. File Name: welfare_data_simulated_cutoffs_SGMA.rdata; Description: Spatial data, simulated Scenario 2a welfare gains by WMA. Produced by code 4_WelfareCalculation.R and used by code Figure3.R. Additional files are provided for efficient reproduction of tables and figures. These include: File Name: wma_thresold_dates_Scenario2(a).csv; Description: Wet vs. paper right threshold dates for each WMA. Shown in Figure 2A,B. Produced and used by code calculate_thresolds_Figure2.R File Name: WWRTradeBounds (directory); Description: Trade boundary shapefile required to reproduce Figure 3A-D. Used in code Figure3.R File Name: welfare_region_totals.csv; Description: Welfare gains for the entire study region, as shown in Figure 3E. Used in code Figure3.R File Name: Welfare_gain_by_state_sector.csv; Description: Welfare gains by state and sector, as shown in Figure 3F. Used in code Figure3.R and produced (as a .xlsx file) by code 2_DemandCurves_simulated_trades.R File Name: WECC_MERIT_5min_v3b_mask.nc; Description: Gridded file that identified which land grid cells are in the WBM model domain, used for processing in code Figure4.py File Name: Table_1.csv; Description: All data in Table 1, reproducible from WBM output files using code table_1.R

Economics↗
DOE OSTI2025

IM3 + EPRI Data Center Load Projections

This dataset contains scenarios of hourly total electricity demand with and without projected loads from data centers over the period 2022-2040. The root projections without data center demands are identical to those documented in Burleyson et al. 2024. In short, those projections encompass hourly electricity demands for 54 Balancing Authorities (BAs) in the United States across a range of eight of weather and socioeconomic scenarios. Refer to the root dataset and accompanying publication, Burleyson et al. 2025, for information about how those projections were generated. For this derivative dataset we used the base loads from the following scenarios: rcp45hotter_ssp3 rcp45hotter_ssp5 rcp85hotter_ssp3 rcp85hotter_ssp5 The root load projections did not reflect the drastic expansion of data centers that has occurred in the last several years to support artificial intelligence and cloud computing. To reflect growth in data center demand, a second set of load projections were created in which we layered in additional data center load projections based on the data center load growth scenarios described in a 2024 report by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI): "Powering Intelligence: Analyzing Artificial Intelligence and Data Center Energy Consumption". The EPRI projections from the report are included in this dataset (EPRI_2024_Projections.xlsx). That report contained annual state-level data center load projections for four year-over-year growth rates for data center demands: Low (3.71% annual growth) Moderate (5% annual growth) High (10% annual growth) Higher (15% annual growth) To homogenize the load projections with and without data centers we had to get them to a common scale. The first step was to take the EPRI annual state-level data center energy consumption values and convert them to 8760-hr loads for each year. We did that by assuming a flat (e.g., not weather- or time-sensitive) load profile and distributing the data center loads in each state evenly across all hours in a year. From there the loads were downscaled from the state-level to the county-level using 2019 county-level populations as weights. Finally, the county-level hourly data center loads were summed to the BA-level using the county-to-BA mapping underpinning the root load projections. The net result is 16 (4 weather and socioeconomic scenarios crossed with 4 data center load growth scenarios) unique load projections for the period 2022-2040. The file format follows that of the root dataset with a single additional column "Scaled_TELL_BA_Load_with_DC_MWh" that contains the hourly loads with the added data center loads for a given BA-year-scenario combination. Please refer to the readme file in the root dataset for more information on the file format.

Burleyson, Casey [Pacific Northwest National Labor↗
DOE OSTI2026

Marginal Soils Index Analysis & Geospatial Data

This data package contains output files associated with Mongird et al. (in prep) organized into four dataset directories. Each dataset is described in more detail below. 1. Marginal Soils Index Analysis Description: This folder contains a csv file with land needs and availability by state, power generating technology type, and scenario in 2050 when suitable siting areas are additionally constrained to areas with increasing levels of soil marginality. Files: msi_constrained_siting_availability_2050.csv Variables: Scenario - Projected 2050 scenario name State - US state abbreviation Technology - Generating technology type solar = solar photovoltaic gas_cc_re = natural gas combined cycle (recirculating cooling) wind = onshore wind gas_cc_ccs_re = natural gas combined cycle with carbon capture sequestration (recirculating cooling) gas_cc_dry = natural gas combined cycle with (dry cooling) gas_cc_pond = natural gas combined cycle with (pond cooling) coal_conv_ccs_re = conventional coal with carbon capture sequestration (recirculating cooling) Req_Capacity_MW - The amount of rated capacity required in 2050 of the given technology type in the given state and under the given scenario from the capacity expansion plan Req_Capacity_Factor - The assumed capacity factor (fraction between 0 and 1) for the given technology type in the given state and under the given scenario by the capacity expansion plan Req_Land_km2 - The amount of land required (in km-squared) to host the required generating capacity that is capable of meeting the specified capacity factor for the given technology type in the given state and under the given scenario Req_Energy_TWh - Product of Req_Capacity_MW, Req_Capacity_Factor, and 8760/1e6 for the given technology type in the given state and under the given scenario MSI_Case - The level of MSI that siting the given technology is additionally constrained to, where >0 means siting is additionally constrained to suitable land areas that have an MSI value greater than 0 >=1 means siting is additionally constrained to suitable land areas that have an MSI value greater than or equal to 1 >=2 means siting is additionally constrained to suitable land areas that have an MSI value greater than or equal to 2 >=3 means siting is additionally constrained to suitable land areas that have an MSI value greater than or equal to 3 Soil Attribute Rasters Description: This folder contains geospatial raster files for individual soil parameters upscaled to the listed grid resolution (30m or 1 km). 1 km resolution files are a spatial average of non-missing 30m resolution values. All raster files use the USA Contiguous Albers Equal Area Conic (ESRI:102003) projection. Files: avg_cond_raster_ .tif - Average conductivity of the saturation extract across all soil horizons within a depth of 40 inches, measured in mmhos/cm max_cond_raster_ .tif - Maximum conductivity of the saturation extract across all soil horizons within a depth of 40 inches, measured in mmhos/cm min_ph_raster_ .tif- Min pH values across all soil horizons within a depth of 40 inches. avg_ph_raster_ .tif - Average pH value across all soil horizons within a depth of 40 inches. max_ph_raster_ .tif- Max pH value across all soil horizons within a depth of 40 inches. erosion_factor_raster_ .tif - Product of k-factor and percent slope flood_freq_raster_ .tif - Number of months of the year during which the area is commonly, frequently, or very frequently flooded. max_sar_raster_ .tif - Maximum sodium adsorption ratio across all horizons within a depth of 40 inches rock_frac_raster_ .tif - Fraction of the upper 6 inches of soil composed of rock fragments larger than 3 inches. temp_regime_raster_ .tif - Soil temperature regime with the following key: 0 = pergelic 1 = gelic 2 = cryic 3 = frigid 4 = isofrigid 5 = mesic 6 = isomesic 7 = thermic 8 = isothermic 9 = hyperthermic 10 =isohyperthermic Marginal Soils Index Rasters Description: This folder contains geospatial raster files of the Marginal Soils Index at the listed grid resolution (30m or 1 km). 1 km resolution files are a spatial average of 30m resolution. Both raster files use the USA Contiguous Albers Equal Area Conic (ESRI:102003) projection. A value of 0 indicates that there were no soil attributes present that indicate marginal soil. NA values indicate that data was unavailable or bodies of water. Files: marginal_soils_index_30m_raster.tif marginal_soils_index_1km_raster.tif Marginal Soils Index Resource Potential Rasters Description: This folder contains geospatial raster files of the Marginal Soils Index + Resource Potential (MSI+RP) score at 1km resolution for geothermal, solar, and wind technologies. Raster files use the USA Contiguous Albers Equal Area Conic (ESRI:102003) projection. NA values indicate that the location is not suitable for siting the given technology due to policy, environmental, socioeconomic, topological, and other constraints regardless of soil marginality level. Areas with values greater than or equal to zero represent the product of the normalized MSI value and the normalized resource potential value. Files: geothermal_msi_ep_score_raster.tif solar_msi_ep_score_raster.tif wind_msi_ep_score_raster.tif Acknowledgment IM3 is a multi-institutional effort led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science as part of research in MultiSector Dynamics, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling Program. Disclaimer This material was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor the United States Department of Energy, nor the Contractor, nor any or their employees, nor any jurisdiction or organization that has cooperated in the development of these materials, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness or any information, apparatus, product, software, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof, or Battelle Memorial Institute. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof. PACIFIC NORTHWEST NATIONAL LABORATORYoperated byBATTELLEfor theUNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ENERGYunder Contract DE-AC05-76RL01830

Agriculture↗
DOE OSTI2026

Marginal Soils Index Analysis & Geospatial Data

This data package contains output files associated with the Mongird et al. paper entitled "Can US power grid expansion avoid prime agricultural lands?" and is organized into four dataset directories. Each dataset is described in more detail below. 1. Marginal Soils Index Analysis Description: This folder contains a csv file with land needs and availability by state, power generating technology type, and scenario in 2050 when suitable siting areas are additionally constrained to areas with increasing levels of soil marginality. Files: msi_constrained_siting_availability_2050.csv Variables: Scenario - Projected 2050 scenario name State - US state abbreviation Technology - Generating technology type solar = solar photovoltaic gas_cc_re = natural gas combined cycle (recirculating cooling) wind = onshore wind gas_cc_ccs_re = natural gas combined cycle with carbon capture sequestration (recirculating cooling) gas_cc_dry = natural gas combined cycle with (dry cooling) gas_cc_pond = natural gas combined cycle with (pond cooling) coal_conv_ccs_re = conventional coal with carbon capture sequestration (recirculating cooling) Req_Capacity_MW - The amount of rated capacity required in 2050 of the given technology type in the given state and under the given scenario from the capacity expansion plan Req_Capacity_Factor - The assumed capacity factor (fraction between 0 and 1) for the given technology type in the given state and under the given scenario by the capacity expansion plan Req_Land_km2 - The amount of land required (in km-squared) to host the required generating capacity that is capable of meeting the specified capacity factor for the given technology type in the given state and under the given scenario Req_Energy_TWh - Product of Req_Capacity_MW, Req_Capacity_Factor, and 8760/1e6 for the given technology type in the given state and under the given scenario MSI_Case - The level of MSI that siting the given technology is additionally constrained to, where >0 means siting is additionally constrained to suitable land areas that have an MSI value greater than 0 >=1 means siting is additionally constrained to suitable land areas that have an MSI value greater than or equal to 1 >=2 means siting is additionally constrained to suitable land areas that have an MSI value greater than or equal to 2 >=3 means siting is additionally constrained to suitable land areas that have an MSI value greater than or equal to 3 Soil Attribute Rasters Description: This folder contains geospatial raster files for individual soil parameters upscaled to the listed grid resolution (30m or 1 km). 1 km resolution files are a spatial average of non-missing 30m resolution values. All raster files use the USA Contiguous Albers Equal Area Conic (ESRI:102003) projection. Files: avg_cond_raster_ .tif - Average conductivity of the saturation extract across all soil horizons within a depth of 40 inches, measured in mmhos/cm max_cond_raster_ .tif - Maximum conductivity of the saturation extract across all soil horizons within a depth of 40 inches, measured in mmhos/cm min_ph_raster_ .tif- Min pH values across all soil horizons within a depth of 40 inches. avg_ph_raster_ .tif - Average pH value across all soil horizons within a depth of 40 inches. max_ph_raster_ .tif- Max pH value across all soil horizons within a depth of 40 inches. erosion_factor_raster_ .tif - Product of k-factor and percent slope flood_freq_raster_ .tif - Number of months of the year during which the area is commonly, frequently, or very frequently flooded. max_sar_raster_ .tif - Maximum sodium adsorption ratio across all horizons within a depth of 40 inches rock_frac_raster_ .tif - Fraction of the upper 6 inches of soil composed of rock fragments larger than 3 inches. temp_regime_raster_ .tif - Soil temperature regime with the following key: 0 = pergelic 1 = gelic 2 = cryic 3 = frigid 4 = isofrigid 5 = mesic 6 = isomesic 7 = thermic 8 = isothermic 9 = hyperthermic 10 =isohyperthermic Marginal Soils Index Rasters Description: This folder contains geospatial raster files of the Marginal Soils Index at the listed grid resolution (30m or 1 km). 1 km resolution files are a spatial average of 30m resolution. Both raster files use the USA Contiguous Albers Equal Area Conic (ESRI:102003) projection. A value of 0 indicates that there were no soil attributes present that indicate marginal soil. NA values indicate that data was unavailable or bodies of water. Files: marginal_soils_index_30m_raster.tif marginal_soils_index_1km_raster.tif Marginal Soils Index Resource Potential Rasters Description: This folder contains geospatial raster files of the Marginal Soils Index + Resource Potential (MSIxRP) score at 1km resolution for geothermal, solar, and wind technologies. Raster files use the USA Contiguous Albers Equal Area Conic (ESRI:102003) projection. NA values indicate that the location is not suitable for siting the given technology due to policy, environmental, socioeconomic, topological, and other constraints regardless of soil marginality level. Areas with values greater than or equal to zero represent the product of the normalized MSI value and the normalized resource potential value. Files: geothermal_msi_rp_score_raster.tif solar_msi_rp_score_raster.tif wind_msi_rp_score_raster.tif Acknowledgment IM3 is a multi-institutional effort led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science as part of research in MultiSector Dynamics, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling Program. Disclaimer This material was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor the United States Department of Energy, nor the Contractor, nor any or their employees, nor any jurisdiction or organization that has cooperated in the development of these materials, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness or any information, apparatus, product, software, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof, or Battelle Memorial Institute. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof. PACIFIC NORTHWEST NATIONAL LABORATORYoperated byBATTELLEfor theUNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ENERGYunder Contract DE-AC05-76RL01830

Agriculture↗
DOE OSTI2020

Implications of climate change mitigation strategies on international bioenergy trade

Most climate change mitigation scenarios rely on increased use of bioenergy to decarbonize the energy system. Here we use results from the 33rd Energy Modeling Forum study (EMF-33) to investigate projected international bioenergy trade for different integrated assessment models across several climate change mitigation scenarios. Results show that in scenarios with no climate policy, international bioenergy trade is likely to increase over time, and becomes even more important when climate targets are set. More stringent climate targets, however, do not necessarily imply greater bioenergy trade compared to weaker targets, as final energy demand may be reduced. However, the scaling up of bioenergy trade happens sooner and at a faster rate with increasing climate target stringency. Across models, for a scenario likely to achieve a 2 °C target, 10–45 EJ/year out of a total global bioenergy consumption of 72–214 EJ/year are expected to be traded across nine world regions by 2050. While this projection is greater than the present trade volumes of coal or natural gas, it remains below the present trade of crude oil. This growth in bioenergy trade largely replaces the trade in fossil fuels (especially oil) which is projected to decrease significantly over the twenty-first century. As climate change mitigation scenarios often show diversified energy systems, in which numerous world regions can act as bioenergy suppliers, the projections do not necessarily lead to energy security concerns. Nonetheless, rapid growth in the trade of bioenergy is projected in strict climate mitigation scenarios, raising questions about infrastructure, logistics, financing options, and global standards for bioenergy production and trade.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Is land use producing robust signals in future projections from Earth system models, all else being equal?

Abstract We use six Earth system models (ESMs) run under SSP3-7.0, a scenario characterized by a relatively large land use change (LUC) over the 21st century, and under a variant of the same scenario where a significantly different pattern of LUC, taken from SSP1-2.6, was used, all else being equal. Our goal is to identify changes in climate extremes between the two scenarios that are statistically significant and robust across the ESMs. The motivation for this study is to test a long-held assumption of the shared socio-economic pathway-representative concentration pathway (SSP-RCP) scenario framework: that the signal from LUC can be safely disregarded when pairing different SSPs to the compatible RCPs, where compatibility only considers global radiative forcing, predominantly determined by well-mixed greenhouse gasses emissions. We analyze extremes of daily minimum and maximum temperatures and precipitation, after fitting non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions in a way that borrows strength along the length of the simulation (2015–2100) and across initial condition ensembles. We consider changes in the 20 year return levels (RL20s) of these metrics by 2100, and focus on eight locations where LUC is large within each scenario, and strongly differs between scenarios, averaging the RL20s over a neighborhood characterized by the same LUC to enhance the signal to noise. We find that precipitation extremes do not show significant differences attributable to LUC differences. For temperature extremes (cold and hot) results are mixed, with some location-index combination showing significant results for some of the ESMs but not all, and not many coherent changes appearing for indices across regions, or regions across indices. These ESMs are representative of what is typically adopted as the source of climate information for impact studies, when the SSP-RCP framework is put to use. Overall, our analysis suggests that the hypothesis to pair SSPs to RCPs in a flexible fashion is overall defensible. However, the appearance of some coherence in a few locations and for some indices invites further investigation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Assessment of the feedstock supply for siting single- and multiple-feedstock biorefineries in the USA and identification of prevalent feedstocks

An integrated multi-feedstock bioenergy (i.e., biofuel, biopower, or bioproduct) supply system has potential to reduce biomass supply system uncertainties and costs. This study identifies optimal configurations of multi-feedstock biomass-to-biorefinery supply chains and pertinent feedstock combinations based on spatial distribution of feedstock and lowest delivered cost to the biorefinery. We used the Supply Characterization Model (SCM) to allocate feedstock supplies to candidate biorefinery facilities. Model runs were performed for herbaceous energy crops, agriculture residue, and woody biomass available in 2017, 2022, 2025, and 2030 as estimated by the Policy Analysis System (POLYSYS) and Forest Sustainable and Economic Analysis Model (ForSEAM) models. Three feedstock supply scenarios were compared: (a) an herbaceous scenario: switchgrass, miscanthus, biosorghum, and corn stover; (b) a woody scenario: coppice wood, noncoppice wood, whole trees, and forestry residues, and (c) a mixed scenario: a combination of all feedstocks in herbaceous and woody scenarios. By 2030 the analyses predicted that 323, 168, and 473 biorefineries were sited in the herbaceous, woody, and mixed scenario, respectively, in the conterminous USA. Feedstock mixes supplied to the biorefineries were mostly dominated by a single feedstock. The most prominent feedstock mixes identified were: (1) switchgrass and miscanthus; (2) coppice and noncoppice wood; and (3) coppice wood, noncoppice wood, switchgrass and miscanthus. Biorefineries using multi-feedstock would be beneficial for growth of bioeconomy, however flexible and cost-effective conversion platforms should be developed to efficiently utilize multiple feedstocks. This analysis identifies biorefinery locations and feedstock supply mixes while minimizing delivered feedstock costs based on spatial and temporal feedstock availability.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Multi-Model Framework for Assessing Long- and Short-Term Climate Influences on the Electric Grid

Climate change influences many aspects of the electric grid, but prior work and industry practices often ignore the potential effects of changing climate, or they only consider a single effect or individual effects in isolation. Challenges vary with each grid and include adapting to long-term trends such as changing temperature and precipitation or shorter-term events such as drought or storms that could increase in frequency or intensity. Here we present a multi-model framework designed to analyze the effects of long and short-term climate impacts in combination. This framework couples capacity expansion and production cost models with hydrologic models and future climate scenario data to analyze alternative climate and energy futures at high spatial, temporal, and process resolutions. Furthermore, we constructed and evaluated the results of a suite of simulated scenarios exploring climate impacts on capacity investment and stress-tested the resulting future infrastructures using hourly dispatch modeling under alternative drought and load conditions. We demonstrate the approach through a case study of the U.S. Western Interconnection, where climate impacts depend on interactions between temperature-induced load, water availability for hydropower, technology competitiveness, and demand flexibility. Changes in 2038 generating capacity range from -8.5-16.6 GW, and changes in 2038 transmission capacity range from -1-2 GW. Capacity increases are driven by higher load from higher temperatures, while capacity reductions can be achieved in scenarios with higher future hydropower availability and increased demand flexibility. Scenarios requiring additional capacity cost an additional $\$5$-$\$17$ billion (discounted) from 2018 to 2038; however, scenarios with capacity reductions cost $\$1$-$\$18$ billion less. Stress tests on four 2038 infrastructures demonstrated that the identified systems were able to serve at least 99.999% of load and 99.96% of reserves. However, drought and unexpected high-load conditions can result in reduced capacity to respond to contingency events we did not model. Although these results are system and scenario specific, they highlight the importance of considering multiple climate change impacts simultaneously in long-term planning efforts and demonstrate a multi-model, multiscale approach that can be flexibly applied to any system and set of climate change concerns.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of the economic implications of varied pressure drawdown strategies generated using a real-time, rapid predictive, multi-fidelity model for unconventional oil and gas wells

Experience has suggested that pressure maintenance in hydraulically fractured reservoirs via lower, more sustained production drawdowns may offer improved cumulative recovery and overall resource extraction efficiency compared to more rapid drawdown approaches aimed at generating high initial production. However, given the inherent variability of oil and natural gas markets, operators pursue production strategies that maximize profitability over resource extraction efficiency. This study focuses on evaluating the implications of contrasting pressure drawdown strategies on the long-term production and resulting economics for a real, producing unconventional gas well in the Marcellus Shale of the Appalachian Basin using a techno-economic analysis approach. Our research combines elements of well-specific horizontal well design, production forecasting, equipment sizing and capital cost estimation, operating cost estimation, and revenue and tax calculations. Gas production forecast outlook scenarios were generated under varying pressure drawdowns using two approaches: 1) a novel physics-informed machine learning workflow and 2) traditional reservoir simulation. A discounted cash flow model was used to evaluate the resulting economic implications for each drawdown scenario—generating output for exploring the coupled effect of factors like the timing and volume of gas production, prevailing economic and market conditions for natural gas, and overall estimated ultimate recovery on profitability metrics such as internal rate of return and net present value. Results show that there is potential to maximize the cumulative gas produced in the specific case study well by employing a lower pressure drawdown. Conversely, the greatest profitability is achieved using rapid drawdown as signified by a small, specific subset of our outlook scenarios. On an averaging basis, we find that the combinations of highest cumulative producing and most profitable scenarios occur under lower drawdowns with long (>40 years) producing timeframes, but require higher relative gas price and lower discounting considerations. Further, the machine learning predictive outlooking capability proved effective for enabling rapid generation of a multitude of scenario forecasts. As a result, a variety of prominent example cases could be generated to strike the balance of greater productivity and economic return given their associated producing features and economic conditions when compared to similar producing scenarios—critical insight that offers improved decision support for unconventional oil and gas operations.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

A modeling framework for designing and evaluating curbside traffic management policies at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport

Emerging mobility technologies are changing the transportation system landscape. This is especially evident at airports, such as the Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport (DFW). Without careful analysis, these changes could lead to inefficient and costly airport operations. This paper presents a modeling framework that integrates travel mode encoding, demand projection, and microsimulation to enable airports to develop, simulate, and evaluate curbside traffic managements policies and measure their impact. Here, the framework is utilized to analyze several traffic scenarios and policies for DFW: a baseline scenario which represents DFW traffic pattern as observed in 2018 and projected to 2045, a transit network company (TNC) electrification policy, a TNC queuing policy, a policy that increased transit ridership, a bus-only policy which considers the use of only buses inside DFW, an autonomous vehicle (AV) policy which investigates the impact of autonomous vehicle (AV) adoption on airport operations, and an example COVID-19 scenario which models the impact of the COVID19 pandemic. The simulations’ results demonstrate that: increasing the DFW transit ridership postpones the need for airport curbside expansion the most; encouraging shared-mobility with the bus-only policy produces the most savings in curbside congestion delays; automation and electrification for all passenger vehicle trips to/from DFW generates the most saving in fuel consumption and emissions; and uncontrolled AV adoption incurs the highest increase in fuel consumption, delay, and emissions and could require immediate airport capacity extension. Without policy intervention or investment in additional infrastructure capacity, these results predict the current operations would face significant congestion on high demand days starting as early as 2028. While derived in close partnership with DFW, the methodology presented here can be generalized to any airport.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Strategies to mitigate urban heat: Effects on overheating and cloud formation

This study evaluates the effectiveness of various urban heat island (UHI) overheating mitigation strategies and their associated impacts on urban cloud dynamics and thermal processes. This study shows cloud-resolving and urban-resolving modeling results estimating the impact of Houston-Galveston heat mitigation scenarios and other resilient strategies contemplated in the Climate Adaptation Plan and Resilient Houston reports. The simulated scenarios include high intensity green rooftops, rooftop photovoltaic solar panels, enhanced urban irrigation, white/cool roofs and roads, and street trees. We contrast the adaptation scenarios against a present baseline case, a no city scenario and a larger and denser city as projected by the Houston-Galveston Area Council for 2045. During the daytime, cooling strategies such as cool roofs, cool roads, and green roofs exhibit superior performance in mitigating urban overheating. At night, enhanced urban irrigation emerges as the most effective cooling intervention. Cooling strategies significantly reduce sensible heat flux partitioning during the day, a process that reduces the uplift of air, suppressing the formation of urban shallow cumulus clouds. The extent of urban cloud mixing ratio is reduced in proportion to the decrease in sensible heating. Under the BEP-Tree scenario, which includes wind effects and evapotranspiration driven by a stomatal conductance model, urban trees demonstrated negligible environmental cooling effects and minimal urban cloud modifications. In contrast, the scenarios with more urban cooling and higher latent heat fluxes led to suppressed urban clouds. The net cooling effect achieved by the heat mitigation strategies is influenced by a combination of indirect processes, including the reduction of downwelling longwave radiation flux, due to reduced cloud presence, while some warming is attributed to a modest increase in shortwave radiation that offsets the cooling benefit. Additionally, reduced heat dissipation, weakened thermal gradients, and diminished vertical mixing over urban areas further moderate the cooling potential. These findings highlight the pivotal role of clouds and moist atmospheric processes in shaping the UHI effect and offer insights for designing more effective urban cooling strategies.

albedo changes↗
DOE OSTI2020

Effects of Low-Carbon Energy Adoption on Airborne Particulate Matter Concentrations With Feedbacks to Future Climate Over California

California plans to reduce emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases (GHGs) through adoption of new energy systems that will also lower concentrations of short-lived absorbing soot contained in airborne particulate matter (PM). Here we examine the direct and indirect effects of reduced PM concentrations under a low-carbon energy (GHG-Step) scenario on radiative forcing in California. Simulations were carried out using the source-oriented WRF/Chem (SOWC) model with 12 km spatial resolution for the year 2054. Furthermore, the avoided aerosol emissions due to technology advances in the GHG-Step scenario reduce ground level PM concentrations by ~8.85% over land compared to the Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario, but changes to meteorological parameters are more modest. Top-of-atmospheric forcing predicted by the SOWC model increased by 0.15 W m -2 , surface temperature warmed by 0.001 K, and planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) increased by 2.20 cm in the GHG-Step scenario compared to the BAU scenario. PM climate feedbacks are small because the significant changes in ground level PM concentrations associated with the GHG-Step scenario are limited to the first few hundred meters of the atmosphere, with little change for the majority of the vertical column above that level. As an order-of-magnitude comparison, the long-term effects of global reductions in GHG emissions (RCP8.5–RCP4.5) lowered average surface temperature over the California study domain by approximately 0.76 K. The effects of long-lived climate pollutants such as CO 2 are much stronger than the effects of short-lived climate pollutants such as PM soot over California in the year 2054.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing Multi-Dimensional Impacts of Achieving Sustainability Goals by Projecting the Sustainable Agriculture Matrix Into the Future

The concept of sustainability inherently spans multiple spatial scales, sectors, variables, and time horizons. This study links a recently developed method of assessing present-day agricultural sustainability across environmental, economic, and social dimensions with a process-based integrated assessment model, in order to allow forward-looking analysis of sustainability by region and scenario. The sustainable agriculture matrix estimates present-day agricultural sustainability at the national level using 18 indicator variables, of which this study estimates nine to the year 2100, using an enhanced version of the Global Change Analysis Model. Scenarios include a reference scenario, and scenarios that apply the following measures, both individually and in combination, that are thought to improve sustainability: yield intensification, transition toward more plant-based (“flexitarian”) diets, and economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions mitigation. The scenarios illustrate considerable complexity and tradeoffs inherent to efforts to improve agricultural sustainability in all regions globally. For example, yield intensification typically increases nitrogen pollution, flexitarian diets can reduce agricultural output, and greenhouse gas mitigation efforts may either increase deforestation or crowd out crop and livestock production due to consequent bioenergy demands. However, there is considerable inter-regional heterogeneity in the responses, and the importance of such secondary responses also differs by region. The analysis and post-processing methods developed in this study allow quantification and visualization of the absolute and relative magnitude of the tradeoffs between agricultural sustainability indicator variables across regions, time periods, and scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗