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NASA NTRS2021

A New Approach to Evaluate and Reduce Uncertainty of Model-Based Biodiversity Projections for Conservation Policy Formulation

Biodiversity projections with uncertainty estimates under different climate, land-use, and policy scenarios are essential to setting and achieving international targets to mitigate biodiversity loss. Evaluating and improving biodiversity predictions to better inform policy decisions remains a central conservation goal and challenge. A comprehensive strategy to evaluate and reduce uncertainty of model outputs against observed measurements and multiple models would help to produce more robust biodiversity predictions. We propose an approach that integrates biodiversity models and emerging remote sensing and in-situ data streams to evaluate and reduce uncertainty with the goal of improving policy-relevant biodiversity predictions. In this article, we describe a multivariate approach to directly and indirectly evaluate and constrain model uncertainty, demonstrate a proof of concept of this approach, embed the concept within the broader context of model evaluation and scenario analysis for conservation policy, and highlight lessons from other modeling communities.

Bonnie J E Myers↗

NASA NTRS1985

Adaptive Inverse Control for Rotorcraft Vibration Reduction

This thesis extends the Least Mean Square (LMS) algorithm to solve the mult!ple-input, multiple-output problem of alleviating N/Rev (revolutions per minute by number of blades) helicopter fuselage vibration by means of adaptive inverse control. A frequency domain locally linear model is used to represent the transfer matrix relating the higher harmonic pitch control inputs to the harmonic vibration outputs to be controlled. By using the inverse matrix as the controller gain matrix, an adaptive inverse regulator is formed to alleviate the N/Rev vibration. The stability and rate of convergence properties of the extended LMS algorithm are discussed. It is shown that the stability ranges for the elements of the stability gain matrix are directly related to the eigenvalues of the vibration signal information matrix for the learning phase, but not for the control phase. The overall conclusion is that the LMS adaptive inverse control method can form a robust vibration control system, but will require some tuning of the input sensor gains, the stability gain matrix, and the amount of control relaxation to be used. The learning curve of the controller during the learning phase is shown to be quantitatively close to that predicted by averaging the learning curves of the normal modes. For higher order transfer matrices, a rough estimate of the inverse is needed to start the algorithm efficiently. The simulation results indicate that the factor which most influences LMS adaptive inverse control is the product of the control relaxation and the the stability gain matrix. A small stability gain matrix makes the controller less sensitive to relaxation selection, and permits faster and more stable vibration reduction, than by choosing the stability gain matrix large and the control relaxation term small. It is shown that the best selections of the stability gain matrix elements and the amount of control relaxation is basically a compromise between slow, stable convergence and fast convergence with increased possibility of unstable identification. In the simulation studies, the LMS adaptive inverse control algorithm is shown to be capable of adapting the inverse (controller) matrix to track changes in the flight conditions. The algorithm converges quickly for moderate disturbances, while taking longer for larger disturbances. Perfect knowledge of the inverse matrix is not required for good control of the N/Rev vibration. However it is shown that measurement noise will prevent the LMS adaptive inverse control technique from controlling the vibration, unless the signal averaging method presented is incorporated into the algorithm.

Jacklin, Stephen A.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Anytime synthetic projection: Maximizing the probability of goal satisfaction

A projection algorithm is presented for incremental control rule synthesis. The algorithm synthesizes an initial set of goal achieving control rules using a combination of situation probability and estimated remaining work as a search heuristic. This set of control rules has a certain probability of satisfying the given goal. The probability is incrementally increased by synthesizing additional control rules to handle 'error' situations the execution system is likely to encounter when following the initial control rules. By using situation probabilities, the algorithm achieves a computationally effective balance between the limited robustness of triangle tables and the absolute robustness of universal plans.

Drummond, Mark↗

NASA NTRS1994

Time-delay control of a magnetic levitated linear positioning system

In this paper, a high accuracy linear positioning system with a linear force actuator and magnetic levitation is proposed. By locating a permanently magnetized rod inside a current-carrying solenoid, the axial force is achieved by the boundary effect of magnet poles and utilized to power the linear motion, while the force for levitation is governed by Ampere's Law supplied with the same solenoid. With the levitation in a radial direction, there is hardly any friction between the rod and the solenoid. The high speed motion can hence be achieved. Besides, the axial force acting on the rod is a smooth function of rod position, so the system can provide nanometer resolution linear positioning to the molecule size. Since the force-position relation is highly nonlinear, and the mathematical model is derived according to some assumptions, such as the equivalent solenoid of the permanently magnetized rod, so there exists unknown dynamics in practical application. Thus 'robustness' is an important issue in controller design. Meanwhile the load effect reacts directly on the servo system without transmission elements, so the capability of 'disturbance rejection; is also required. With the above consideration, a time-delay control scheme is chosen and applied. By comparing the input-output relation and the mathematical model, the time-delay controller calculates an estimation of unmodeled dynamics and disturbances and then composes the desired compensation into the system. Effectiveness of the linear positioning system and control scheme are illustrated with simulation results.

Tarn, J. H.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Forecasting the Impact of an 1859-calibre Superstorm on Satellite Resources

We have assembled a database of operational satellites in orbit as of 2004, and have developed a series of simple models to assess the economic impacts to this resource caused by various scenarios of superstorm events possible during the next sunspot cycle between 2010 and 2014. Despite the apparent robustness of our satellite assets against the kinds of storms we have encountered during the satellite era, our models suggest a potential economic loss exceeding $10(exp 11) for satellite replacement and lost profitability caused by a once a century single storm similar to the 1859 superstorm. From a combination of power system and attitude control system (the most vulnerable) failures, we estimate that 80 satellites (LEO, MEO, GEO) may be disabled as a consequence of a superstorm event. Additional consequences may include the failure of many of the GPS, GLONASS and Galileo satellite systems in MEO. Approximately 98 LEO satellites that normally would not have re-entered for many decades, may prematurely de-orbit in ca 2021 as a result of the temporarily increased atmospheric drag caused by the superstorm event occurring in 2012. The $10(exp 11) International Space Station may lose at least 15 kilometers of altitude, placing it in critical need for re-boosting by an amount that is potentially outside the range of typical Space Shuttle operations during the previous solar maximum in ca 2000, and at a time when NASA plans to decommission the Space Shuttle. Several LEO satellites will unexpectedly be placed on orbits that enter the ISS zone of avoidance, requiring some action by ground personnel and ISS astronauts to avoid close encounters. Radiation effects on astronauts have also been considered and could include a range of possibilities from acute radiation sickness for astronauts inside spacecraft, to near-lethal doses during EVAs. The specifics depends very sensitively on the spectral hardness of the accompanying SPE event. Currently, the ability to forecast extreme particle events and coronal mass ejections, or predict their fluences and geo-severity in the 24-hrs prior to the event, appears to be no better than 50/50. If the events of the 1859 superstorm serve as a guide, the scope of a contemporary superstorm will most certainly be an awesome event, but one that the vast majority of our other satellite resources may reasonably be expected to survive.

Odenwald, Sten↗

NASA NTRS2008

Utilizing Ion-Mobility Data to Estimate Molecular Masses

A method is being developed for utilizing readings of an ion-mobility spectrometer (IMS) to estimate molecular masses of ions that have passed through the spectrometer. The method involves the use of (1) some feature-based descriptors of structures of molecules of interest and (2) reduced ion mobilities calculated from IMS readings as inputs to (3) a neural network. This development is part of a larger effort to enable the use of IMSs as relatively inexpensive, robust, lightweight instruments to identify, via molecular masses, individual compounds or groups of compounds (especially organic compounds) that may be present in specific environments or samples. Potential applications include detection of organic molecules as signs of life on remote planets, modeling and detection of biochemicals of interest in the pharmaceutical and agricultural industries, and detection of chemical and biological hazards in industrial, homeland-security, and industrial settings.

Duong, Tuan↗

NASA NTRS2014

HEMODOSE: A Set of Multi-parameter Biodosimetry Tools

There continues to be important concerns of the possibility of the occurrence of acute radiation syndromes following nuclear and radiological terrorism or accidents that may result in mass casualties in densely populated areas. To guide medical personnel in their clinical decisions for effective medical management and treatment of the exposed individuals, biological markers are usually applied to examine radiation induced biological changes to assess the severity of radiation injury to sensitive organ systems. Among these the peripheral blood cell counts are widely used to assess the extent of radiation induced bone marrow (BM) injury. This is due to the fact that hematopoietic system is a vulnerable part of the human body to radiation damage. Particularly, the lymphocyte, granulocyte, and platelet cells are the most radiosensitive of the blood elements, and monitoring their changes after exposure is regarded as a practical and recommended laboratory test to estimate radiation dose and injury. In this work we describe the HEMODOSE web tools, which are built upon solid physiological and pathophysiological understanding of mammalian hematopoietic systems, and rigorous coarse-grained biomathematical modeling and validation. Using single or serial granulocyte, lymphocyte, leukocyte, or platelet counts after exposure, these tools can estimate absorbed doses of adult victims very rapidly and accurately to assess the severity of BM radiation injury. Some patient data from historical accidents are utilized as examples to demonstrate the capabilities of these tools as a rapid point-of-care diagnostic or centralized high-throughput assay system in a large-scale radiological disaster scenario. HEMODOSE web tools establish robust correlations between the absorbed doses and victim's various types of blood cell counts not only in the early time window (1 or 2 days), but also in very late phase (up to 4 weeks) after exposure.

Hu, Shaowen↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Autonomous System Operations for Lunar Safe Haven Establishment and Sustainment

To enable a sustainable, permanent human lunar presence, NASA must provide a safe haven shelter to protect astronauts and equipment from radiation, thermal extremes, and micro-meteoroids (MM). Planning and development for a robust Safe Haven includes an examination of NASA activities in site preparation, excavation, regolith transfer, surface operations, autonomous monitoring and maintenance, advanced manufacturing, and in-situ resource utilization (ISRU) for identifying the best approaches when implementing a safe haven shelter. These NASA activities were reviewed as a part of a trade study conducted at NASA Langley to assess technological needs and estimated technology readiness levels (TRL). This paper presents a thorough review of the role and level of autonomy in the establishment and sustainment operations of a Lunar Safe Haven.

Walter J Waltz↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Autonomous System Operations for Lunar Safe Haven Establishment and Sustainment

Walter J Waltz↗

NASA NTRS1983

Space power system utilizing Fresnel lenses for solar power and also thermal energy storage

A solar power plant suitable for earth orbits passing through Van Allen radiation belts is described. The solar-to-electricity conversion efficiency is estimated to be around 9 percent, and the expected power-to-weight ratio is competitive with photovoltaic arrays. The system is designed to be self-contained, to be indifferent to radiation belt exposures, store energy for periods when the orbiting system is in earth shadow (so that power generation is contant), have no moving parts and no working fluids, and be robust against micrometeorite attack. No electrical batteries are required.

Turner, R. H.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Robust adaptive regulation without persistent excitation

A globally convergent adaptive regulator for minimum or nonminimum phase systems subject to bounded distrubances and unmodeled dynamics is presented. The control strategy is designed for a particular input-output representation obtained from the state space representation of the system. The leading coefficient of the new representation is the product of the observability and controllability matrices of the system. The controller scheme uses a Least Squares identification algorithm with a dead zone. The dead zone is chosen to obtain convergence properties on the estimates and on the covariance matrix as well. This allows the definition of modified estimates which secure well-conditioned matrices in the adaptive control law. Explicit bounds on the plant output are given.

Lozano-Leal, Rogelio↗

NASA NTRS1992

Sensitivity of wildlife habitat models to uncertainties in GIS data

Decision makers need to know the reliability of output products from GIS analysis. For many GIS applications, it is not possible to compare these products to an independent measure of 'truth'. Sensitivity analysis offers an alternative means of estimating reliability. In this paper, we present a CIS-based statistical procedure for estimating the sensitivity of wildlife habitat models to uncertainties in input data and model assumptions. The approach is demonstrated in an analysis of habitat associations derived from a GIS database for the endangered California condor. Alternative data sets were generated to compare results over a reasonable range of assumptions about several sources of uncertainty. Sensitivity analysis indicated that condor habitat associations are relatively robust, and the results have increased our confidence in our initial findings. Uncertainties and methods described in the paper have general relevance for many GIS applications.

Stoms, David M.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Application of a Reduced Order Kalman Filter to Initialize a Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Model: Impact on the Prediction of El Nino

A reduced order Kalman Filter, based on a simplification of the Singular Evolutive Extended Kalman (SEEK) filter equations, is used to assimilate observed fields of the surface wind stress, sea surface temperature and sea level into the nonlinear coupled ocean-atmosphere model. The SEEK filter projects the Kalman Filter equations onto a subspace defined by the eigenvalue decomposition of the error forecast matrix, allowing its application to high dimensional systems. The Zebiak and Cane model couples a linear reduced gravity ocean model with a single vertical mode atmospheric model of Zebiak. The compatibility between the simplified physics of the model and each observed variable is studied separately and together. The results show the ability of the model to represent the simultaneous value of the wind stress, SST and sea level, when the fields are limited to the latitude band 10 deg S - 10 deg N. In this first application of the Kalman Filter to a coupled ocean-atmosphere prediction model, the sea level fields are assimilated in terms of the Kelvin and Rossby modes of the thermocline depth anomaly. An estimation of the error of these modes is derived from the projection of an estimation of the sea level error over such modes. This method gives a value of 12 for the error of the Kelvin amplitude, and 6 m of error for the Rossby component of the thermocline depth. The ability of the method to reconstruct the state of the equatorial Pacific and predict its time evolution is demonstrated. The method is shown to be quite robust for predictions I up to six months, and able to predict the onset of the 1997 warm event fifteen months before its occurrence.

Ballabrera-Poy, Joaquim↗

NASA NTRS2000

Application of a Reduced Order Kalman Filter to Initialize a Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Model: Impact on the Prediction of El Nino

A reduced order Kalman Filter, based on a simplification of the Singular Evolutive Extended Kalman (SEEK) filter equations, is used to assimilate observed fields of the surface wind stress, sea surface temperature and sea level into the nonlinear coupled ocean-atmosphere model of Zebiak and Cane. The SEEK filter projects the Kalman Filter equations onto a subspace defined by the eigenvalue decomposition of the error forecast matrix, allowing its application to high dimensional systems. The Zebiak and Cane model couples a linear reduced gravity ocean model with a single vertical mode atmospheric model of Zebiak. The compatibility between the simplified physics of the model and each observed variable is studied separately and together. The results show the ability of the model to represent the simultaneous value of the wind stress, SST and sea level, when the fields are limited to the latitude band 10 deg S - 10 deg N In this first application of the Kalman Filter to a coupled ocean-atmosphere prediction model, the sea level fields are assimilated in terms of the Kelvin and Rossby modes of the thermocline depth anomaly. An estimation of the error of these modes is derived from the projection of an estimation of the sea level error over such modes. This method gives a value of 12 for the error of the Kelvin amplitude, and 6 m of error for the Rossby component of the thermocline depth. The ability of the method to reconstruct the state of the equatorial Pacific and predict its time evolution is demonstrated. The method is shown to be quite robust for predictions up to six months, and able to predict the onset of the 1997 warm event fifteen months before its occurrence.

Ballabrera-Poy, J.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Robust adaptive regulation without persistent excitation

A globally convergent adaptive regulator for minimum- or nonminimum-phase systems subject to bounded disturbances and unmodeled dynamics is presented. The control strategy is designed for a particular input-output representation obtained from the state space representation of the system. The leading coefficient of the representation is the product of the observability and controllability matrices of the system. The controller scheme uses a Least-Squares identification algorithm a with dead zone. The dead zone is chosen to obtain convergence properties on the estimates and on the covariance matrix as well. This allows the definition of modified estimates which secure well-conditioned matrices in the adaptive control law. Explicit bounds on the plant output are given.

Lozano-Leal, Rogelio↗

NASA NTRS1993

Improved determination of vector lithospheric magnetic anomalies from MAGSAT data

Scientific contributions made in developing new methods to isolate and map vector magnetic anomalies from measurements made by Magsat are described. In addition to the objective of the proposal, the isolation and mapping of equatorial vector lithospheric Magsat anomalies, isolation of polar ionospheric fields during the period were also studied. Significant progress was also made in isolation of polar delta(Z) component and scalar anomalies as well as integration and synthesis of various techniques of removing equatorial and polar ionospheric effects. The significant contributions of this research are: (1) development of empirical/analytical techniques in modeling ionospheric fields in Magsat data and their removal from uncorrected anomalies to obtain better estimates of lithospheric anomalies (this task was accomplished for equatorial delta(X), delta(Z), and delta(B) component and polar delta(Z) and delta(B) component measurements; (2) integration of important processing techniques developed during the last decade with the newly developed technologies of ionospheric field modeling into an optimum processing scheme; and (3) implementation of the above processing scheme to map the most robust magnetic anomalies of the lithosphere (components as well as scalar).

Ravat, Dhananjay↗

NASA NTRS2018

Super Resolution of Remote Sensing Images Using Edge-Directed Radial Basis Functions

Edge-Directed Radial Basis Functions (EDRBF) are used to compute super resolution(SR) image from a given set of low resolution (LR) images differing in subpixel shifts. The algorithm is tested on remote sensing images and compared for accuracy with other well-known algorithms such as Iterative Back Projection (IBP), Maximum Likelihood (ML) algorithm, interpolation of scattered points using Nearest Neighbor (NN) and Inversed Distance Weighted (IDW) interpolation, and Radial Basis Functin(RBF) . The accuracy of SR depends on various factors besides the algorithm (i) number of subpixel shifted LR images (ii) accuracy with which the LR shifts are estimated by registration algorithms (iii) and the targeted spatial resolution of SR. In our studies, the accuracy of EDRBF is compared with other algorithms keeping these factors constant. The algorithm has two steps: i) registration of low resolution images and (ii) estimating the pixels in High Resolution (HR) grid using EDRBF. Experiments are conducted by simulating LR images from a input HR image with different sub-pixel shifts. The reconstructed SR image is compared with input HR image to measure the accuracy of the algorithm using sum of squared errors (SSE). The algorithm has outperformed all of the algorithms mentioned above. The algorithm is robust and is not overly sensitive to the registration inaccuracies.

Mareboyana, Manohar M.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Improving the AVHRR Long Term Data Record BRDF Correction

The Long Term Data Record (LTDR) project has the goal of developing a quality and consistent surface reflectance product from coarse resolution optical sensors. This paper focuses on the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) part of the record, using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) instrument as a reference. When a surface reflectance time series is acquired from satellites with variable observation geometry, the directional variation generates an apparent noise which can be corrected by modeling the bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF). The VJB (Vermote, Justice and Bréon, 2009) method estimates a target’s BRDF shape using 5 years of observation and corrects for directional effects maintaining the high temporal resolution of the measurement using the instantaneous Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The method was originally established on MODIS data but its viability and optimization for AVHRR data have not been fully explored. In this study we analyze different approaches to find the most robust way of applying the VJB correction to AVHRR data, considering that high noise in the red band (B1) caused by atmospheric effect makes the VJB method unstable. Firstly, our results show that for coarse spatial resolution, where the vegetation dynamics of the target don’t change significantly, deriving BRDF parameters from 15+ years of observations reduces the average noise by up to 7% in the Near Infrared (NIR) band and 6% in the NDVI, in comparison to using 3-year windows. Secondly, we find that the VJB method can be modified for AVHRR data to improve the robustness of the correction parameters and decrease the noise by an extra 8% and 9% in the red and NIR bands with respect to using the classical VJB inversion. We do this by using the Stable method, which obtains the volumetric BRDF parameter (V) based on its NDVI dependency, and then obtains the geometric BRDF parameter (R) through the inversion of just one parameter.

LTDR↗